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Factors Affecting Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of Crude Palm Oil Exports of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
Factors Affecting Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of Crude Palm Oil Exports of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
Factors Affecting Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage of Crude Palm Oil Exports of Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand
Original Article
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the comparative advantages, as measured by the RSCA index
and selected economic variables for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand’s crude palm oil export during 2001-2017. The results of
autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) analysis showed that in the short-run, the interest rate had a negative impact on
Indonesia’s RSCA, while the one-period lag of the trade openness and the world price of soybean oil exhibited a positive impact.
The findings suggested that the one-period lag of the exchange rate and the world price of crude petroleum oil had a short-run
positive impact on Thailand’s RSCA. It further found no evidence of long-run relationships among the variables in the Indonesia
and Thailand’s RSCA model. The model results also confirmed no relationships between Malaysia’s RSCA and real interest rate,
foreign direct investment, trade openness, the world price of crude petroleum oil and soybean oil in the short-run and long-run.
This study focused only on crude palm oil export and six independent variables. More palm oil products and economic factors
such as GDP and world consumption should be included in future studies. Important policy implications for improving a
country’s comparative advantage were recommended.
Keywords: autoregressive distributed lag, cointegration, crude palm oil, revealed symmetric comparative advantage
1. Introduction likely that these three countries will face fierce competition in
palm oil-exporting in the world market. A decline in palm oil
Palm oil is one of the important vegetable oils in production as a result of adverse weather, a reduction in palm
energy sources and food security in the world. Palm oil and its oil usage for biofuel production, strictly certification schemes
derivatives are used in a wide variety of products, ranging for sustainable palm oil export from palm oil importing
from food products (80 percent), personal care products, or countries, and a price competition pressure from soybean oil,
oleo chemistry (15 percent) to biofuel or agro-diesel (5 a closely substitutable product may create competition for
percent) (European Palm Oil Alliance [EPOA], 2019). palm oil export (United States Department of Agriculture
Southeast Asia plays a dominant role in palm oil production as [USDA], 2019; Zakaria, Salleh, & Balu, 2017).
it has a suitable area for plantation and cultivation. Indonesia, Many previous studies used the revealed
Malaysia, and Thailand are currently the three biggest palm comparative advantage (RCA) and revealed symmetric
oil suppliers and exporters in the world. comparative advantage (RSCA) to examine a country’s export
As the number of uncertain factors in palm oil competitiveness in palm oil products, especially for Indonesia
production, consumption and trade increases, it becomes more and Malaysia, the world’s top two palm oil producers and
exporters (Arip, Yee, & Feng, 2013; Dewanta, Arfani, &
Erfita, 2016). A few studies focused on other palm oil
Peer-reviewed paper selected from The 1st International producing countries such as Thailand, Nigeria, Ghana, and
Conference on Sustainable Agriculture and Aquaculture Côte d’Ivoire (Etuk & Ohen, 2017; Hassanpour & Ismail,
(ICSAA-2021) 2010; Office of Agricultural Economics [OAE], 2016).
*Corresponding author Research on the linkages between export competitiveness and
Email address: rungrat.s@psu.ac.th economic factors mainly emphasized determinants of export
R. Saeyang & A. Nissapa / Songklanakarin J. Sci. Technol. 44 (1), 32-39, 2022 33
quantity and value. Much economic literature indicated that petroleum oil (WPCO) and soybean oil (WPSO) were
internal and external factors such as exchange rate, interest carefully selected following the trade theory and augmented
rate, and price of substituted goods are the crucial factors in by recent studies for factors influencing comparative
determining agricultural products export competitiveness advantage. The description of independent variables and
(Talib & Darawi, 2002; Mwansakilwa, Tembo, & Mugisha, related hypotheses are described in Table 1.
2013; Seng & Ahmad, 2014; Dube, Ozkan, & Govindasamy,
2018). Additionally, only a few previous studies focused on 2.3 Model specification
the impact of economic variables on comparative advantage.
The world price of crude petroleum oil, trade openness, and The comparative advantage models for Indonesia,
foreign direct investment were found to be potentially Malaysia, and Thailand on crude palm oil product exports can
significant determinants of a country’s comparative advantage be constructed as functions of the RSCA, relating with the
(Aziz & Dahalan, 2015; Balogh & Jambor, 2017). independent variables. According to Narayan (2005) and
Nevertheless, there have been no empirical studies on the Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001), this study applied the
factor affecting the comparative advantage in palm oil product autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) or cointegration bound
exports. This study analyzes comparative advantage and test to identify whether there are long-run and short-run
factors influencing a comparative advantage in Indonesia, relationships among variables in the model. Following Dube
Malaysia, and Thailand’s palm oil export during 2001-2017. et al. (2018) and Rahman and Kashem (2017), the ARDL
model used in this study for cointegration test is specified as:
2. Materials and Methods
EXR1,2 Official exchange rate (local currency units relative to US$) +/-
RINR2,6 Real interest rate (%), The lending interest rate adjusted for inflation as measured by the GDP deflator -
FDI3,4 Foreign Direct Investment (current US$), The direct investment equity flows in the reporting economy +/-
TO3 Trade openness (current US$), an economic indicator calculated as the ratio of a country’s total trade and GDP. +/-
WPCO3 World price of crude petroleum oil (US$/bbl in real 2010 US$) -
WPSO1,5 World price of soybean oil (US$/ton at Netherland ports) +
Data sources: ITC, UNCTAD, WDI. Reference sources: 1Talib and Darawi (2002), 2Mwansakilwa et al. (2013), 3Aziz and Dahalan (2015),
4
Balogh and Jambor (2017), 5Seng and Ahmad (2017), 6Dube et al. (2018)
Selected ARDL
Model
RSCA_IN10 RSCA_MA10 RSCA_TH10
ARDL(1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0) ARDL(1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0) ARDL(1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0)
Statistic
R-squared 0.9612 0.7448 0.8875
Adjusted R-squared 0.9029 b 0.5747 a 0.7890 b
F-statistic 16.5047 4.3775 9.0115
(p-value) (0.0014) *** (0.0240) ** (0.0030) ***
Akaike info criterion -9.5570 -5.4223 0.4013
Durbin-Watson stat. 2.2478 2.1030 1.8766
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM test
F-statistic 0.5401 0.4727 0.0950
Probability 0.4954 0.5112 0.7669
Prob. Chi-Square 0.2117 0.3448 0.6434
Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey test
F-statistic 0.3139 0.4170 1.0027
Probability 0.9419 0.8499 0.4920
Prob. Chi-Square 0.8236 0.7460 0.3809
Notes: *** and ** significant at 1% and 5% level, respectively. a Low adjusted R2 was due to limited ability of explanatory variables included in
the model to explain variation in the RSCA. b High adjusted R2 was most likely due to the simplicity of its oil palm industry that variations in the
RSCA were largely explained by the explanatory variables included in the model.
The appropriate lag length of the RSCA model is RSCA_MA10 (F-statistics = 1.7020) and RSCA_TH10 (F-
determined by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) statistics =1.8420) were less than the F-critical values of the
criteria. Using the AIC, the ARDL (1, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0), ARDL (1, lower bound at the 5-percent level. It could be concluded that
0, 0, 0, 0, 0), and ARDL (1, 1, 0, 0, 0, 0) exhibited as the best there was no long-run relationship between the variables in
models for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. According to Malaysia and Thailand’s comparative advantage models. In
the small sample size limitation, the maximum number of lags Indonesia’s model, the calculated F-statistic (2.8557) was
used in this study was selected at one. All three models were a between the lower and upper bound values at a 5-percent
good fit and acceptable for further analysis, as reflected by level, and then the result remains inconclusive.
high R-squared values and the significant F-statistics. The
BG-LM test and BP-G test showed the absence of serial 3.2.3 Results of factors affecting the RSCA of crude
correlation and heteroscedasticity problems. It could be palm oil export
concluded that the RSCA models of Indonesia, Malaysia, and
Thailand in crude palm oil export were suitable for the next The three ARDL models are tested for the short-run
ARDL bound test since they passed all the diagnostics tests. relationship among variables. The short-run coefficients of
The CUSUM graphs of the RSCA model for factors affecting the RSCA of crude palm oil export for the
Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand (Figure 2) showed that the three countries are presented in Table 5 and reported as
graphs were within the 5 percent critical bands, indicating the followed.
absence of any instability of the coefficients. The RSCA
models of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand were stable at a 1) Factor affecting Indonesia’s RSCA of crude palm
5 percent significance level from 2001-2017. oil export
3.2.2 Results of cointegration test Results showed that the real interest rate had
statistically significant effects on the RSCA. The interest rate
Table 4 showed the results of the ARDL bound test coefficient was negative as expected, indicating an increase in
for the RSCA models of Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. real interest rate led to a decrease in Indonesia’s RSCA level
The findings indicated that the computed F-statistics of for crude palm oil export, with other variables kept constant in
36 R. Saeyang & A. Nissapa / Songklanakarin J. Sci. Technol. 44 (1), 32-39, 2022
Figure 2. Plot of CUSUM test; (a) Indonesia’s RSCA model, (b) Malaysia’s RSCA model, (c) Thailand’s RSCA model
Note: * Pesaran et al. (2001), k is the number of independent variables in the model
Table 5. ARDL models of crude palm oil export for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand