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The science of probability theory was first noticed in the middle of the 18th century with the study of
games of chance. As time went by, the applications of this science expanded to the point where today, the theory
of probability plays a crucial role in recognizing, modeling, and improving many uncertain real-world
phenomena.

The book in front of you is the result of several years of studying, using, and teaching the concepts of
probability theory and its applications. Despite the many complexities of this science, the main goal and focus
of this book are to present its contents simply and fluently and to help students create a deep understanding of
the subjects of this science. To achieve this goal, each chapter of the book is divided into two main parts. In the
first part, the text of each chapter is explained in a simple way and has examples that increase learning and
understanding of the content. Since the authors believe solving different problems is the best way to get good at
probability theory and fully understand it, the second half of each chapter in the book is filled with many
classified problems. The order of the problems is also designed such that the readers feel themselves progressing
along the learning path step by step.

In the first chapter of this book, the main ideas of combinatorial analysis, which is the primary way to
figure out probabilities, are explained.

In Chapter 2, the definition of probability, the principles of probability theory, and the main methods of
probability calculation are stated, and in Chapter 3, conditional probability and its applications are presented.

In Chapter 4, random variables are addressed, and in Chapter 5, the expected value of random variables
and some of their properties are mentioned. Also, in Chapters 6 and 7, some widely used discrete and continuous
random variables are introduced.

In Chapter 8, joint random variables and conditional distributions are discussed, and in Chapters 9 and
10, the distribution and expected value of a function of several random variables are addressed.

Finally, in Chapter 11, expected value of multiple random variables, correlation, and covariance are
explained.

For those who encounter difficulties in solving the problems in this book, another book titled "Solution
Manual for Principles of Probability and its Applications" has been prepared by the authors, in which there are
explanatory answers to all questions and, in many cases, more than one solution to the problems is proposed.

The contents of this book are not without flaws, and we incentivize our dear readers to contact us via
mrz.mehrpour94@gmail.com if they find any weak points or faults in the book or have any comments or
suggestions.

Ultimately, the authors hope that this collection can be effective in getting to know and learning the
science of probability better and be a step, however small, in developing this science.
CHAPTER 1: COMBINATORIAL ANALYSIS ............................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. The Basic Principle of Counting ................................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.3. Permutations .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5
1.3.1 Permutation of “n” Distinct elements .......................................................................................................................................... 5
1.3.2 Permutation of “r” Distinct elements from “n” Distinct elements ........................................................................................ 7
1.3.3 Permutation of “n” Elements, some of which have the Same value...................................................................................... 8
1.3.4 Permutation of “n” Distinct elements at a Round table......................................................................................................... 10
1.4. Combinations ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12
1.5. Significant Identities of the Combinatorial Topic ................................................................................................................................ 16
1.6. The Ball and Urn (cell) Model ..................................................................................................................................................................... 23
1.7. Chapter Problems ..........................................................................................................................................................................................48

CHAPTER 2: AXIOMS OF PROBABILITY ................................................................................................................................................ 58


2.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................... 58
2.2. Random Trial, Sample Space, and Event ................................................................................................................................................ 58
2.3. An Introduction to the Algebra of Sets ..................................................................................................................................................... 59
2.4. Definition of Probability .............................................................................................................................................................................. 64
2.5. Some Probabilistic Propositions Resulting from Principles of the Probability Theory ............................................................... 79
2.6. Chapter Problems ..........................................................................................................................................................................................96

CHAPTER 3: CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY AND INDEPENDENCE ..................................................................................................... 106


3.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 106
3.2. Conditional Probability Concept ............................................................................................................................................................. 106
3.3. The Law of Multiplication in Probability ............................................................................................................................................... 113
3.4. Independence of Events .............................................................................................................................................................................. 115
3.5. The Law of Total Probability .................................................................................................................................................................... 125
3.6. Bayes' Law ..................................................................................................................................................................................................... 133
3.7. The Law of Total Probability in Reduced Space .................................................................................................................................. 138
3.8. Chapter Problems ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 143

CHAPTER 4: RANDOM VARIABLES ...................................................................................................................................................... 162


4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................................................................................. 162
4.2. Types of Random Variables....................................................................................................................................................................... 166
4.3. Discrete Random Variables ....................................................................................................................................................................... 167
4.4. Continuous Random Variables ................................................................................................................................................................ 169
4.5. Mixed Random Variables ...........................................................................................................................................................................174
4.6. Cumulative Distribution Function ......................................................................................................................................................... 176
4.7. Some Important Values of Random Variables ...................................................................................................................................... 181
4.8. The Distribution of a Function of a Random Variable ....................................................................................................................... 184
4.9. Conditioning on Continuous Space ........................................................................................................................................................ 188
4.10. Chapter Problems ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 191

CHAPTER 5: EXPECTED VALUE .......................................................................................................................................................... 206


5.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 206
5.2. The Expected Value of Discrete, Continuous, and Mixed Random Variables ............................................................................. 209

I
5.3. Some notes about the Expected Value of a Random Variable .......................................................................................................... 214
5.4. Expected Value of a Function of a Random Variable .........................................................................................................................223
5.5. Central Tendency Measures of a Random Variable ........................................................................................................................... 227
5.6. Dispersion Measures of a Random Variable........................................................................................................................................ 228
5.6.1. Variance ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 228
5.6.2. Standard Deviation ..................................................................................................................................................................... 230
5.6.3. Expected Distance from the Mean ............................................................................................................................................ 231
5.7. Other Measures of a Random Variable .................................................................................................................................................. 231
5.8. Approximate Expected Value of The Function of a Random Variable ...........................................................................................232
5.9. Moment Generating Function ................................................................................................................................................................ 233
5.10. Factorial Moment Generating Function .............................................................................................................................................. 238
5.11. Distribution and Expected Value Of 𝑿|𝒂 ≤ 𝑿 ≤ 𝒃 ..............................................................................................................................242
5.12. Markov's and Chebyshev's Inequalities..................................................................................................................................................244
5.12.1. Markov's Inequality ......................................................................................................................................................................244
5.12.2. Chebyshev's Inequality ................................................................................................................................................................ 246
5.12.3. One-Sided Chebyshev's Inequality ........................................................................................................................................... 248
5.13. Chapter Problems ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 251

CHAPTER 6: SPECIAL DISCRETE RANDOM VARIABLES .................................................................................................................... 264


6.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 264
6.2. The Bernoulli Random Variable.............................................................................................................................................................. 264
6.3. The Binomial Random Variable .............................................................................................................................................................. 269
6.3.1. Properties of The Binomial Random Variable........................................................................................................................ 272
6.4. The Geometric Random Variable ............................................................................................................................................................ 275
6.4.1. The Mean And Variance of The Geometric Distribution .................................................................................................... 277
6.4.2. The Memoryless Property of The Geometric Distribution .................................................................................................. 279
6.4.3. The Geometric Random Variable of Failure Type ................................................................................................................ 282
6.5. The Negative Binomial Random Variable (Pascal) ............................................................................................................................ 283
6.5.1. The Properties of Negative Binomial Random Variable ..................................................................................................... 286
6.5.2. The Negative Binomial Random Variable of Failure Type................................................................................................. 289
6.5.3. The Problem of Points ................................................................................................................................................................. 290
6.6. The Poisson Random Variable.................................................................................................................................................................. 291
6.6.1. The Properties of The Poisson Random Variable ................................................................................................................. 295
6.6.2. The Poisson Process ...................................................................................................................................................................... 297
6.6.3. Approximating The Probability Function of The Number Of Successes in n Dependent Trials .............................. 299
6.7. The Hypergeometric Random Variable................................................................................................................................................. 304
6.7.1. The Properties of Hypergeometric Random Variable ......................................................................................................... 305
6.8. The Discrete Uniform Random Variable .............................................................................................................................................. 309
6.9. Chapter Problems ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 311

CHAPTER 7: SPECIAL CONTINUOUS RANDOM VARIABLES .............................................................................................................. 333


7.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 333
7.2. Continuous Uniform Random variable ................................................................................................................................................ 333
7.2.1. Some Properties of a Continuous Uniform Random Variable .......................................................................................... 338
7.3. Normal Random Variable......................................................................................................................................................................... 340
7.3.1. Some Properties of a Normal Random Variable .................................................................................................................... 341
7.3.2. The Normal Distribution Approximation to the Binomial Distribution .........................................................................352
7.4. The Exponential Random Variable .........................................................................................................................................................355
7.4.1. Some Properties of the Exponential Distribution ................................................................................................................ 359
7.4.2. The Two-Parameter Exponential Distribution ..................................................................................................................... 361
7.5. The Gamma Random Variable ................................................................................................................................................................ 362
7.5.1. The Three-Parameter Gamma Random Variable ............................................................................................................................... 367
7.6. Other Continuous Distributions............................................................................................................................................................. 368
7.6.1. The Beta Random Variable ........................................................................................................................................................ 368
7.6.2. The Weibull Random Variable ...................................................................................................................................................370

II
7.6.3. The Cauchy Distribution ..............................................................................................................................................................371
7.6.4. The Pareto Random Variable ......................................................................................................................................................371
7.7. The Failure Rate Function......................................................................................................................................................................... 372
7.8. Chapter Problems ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 376
CHAPTER 8: JOINT RANDOM VARIABLES AND CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION ............................................................................... 394
8.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 394
8.2. Joint Random Variables ............................................................................................................................................................................ 394
8.2.1. Jointly Discrete Random Variables .......................................................................................................................................... 394
8.2.2. Jointly Continuous Random Variables .................................................................................................................................... 399
8.3. Some well-known Joint Distributions ................................................................................................................................................... 405
8.3.1. The Multinomial Distribution ................................................................................................................................................... 405
8.3.2. The Multivariate Hypergeometric Distribution ................................................................................................................... 406
8.3.3. The Bivariate Uniform Random Variable ...............................................................................................................................407
8.3.4. The Bivariate Normal Distribution .......................................................................................................................................... 410
8.4. The Independence of Random Variables................................................................................................................................................ 410
8.5. Conditional Distributions ......................................................................................................................................................................... 418
8.5.1. Discrete Case .................................................................................................................................................................................. 418
8.5.2. Continuous Case............................................................................................................................................................................ 421
8.6. Chapter Problems ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 427
CHAPTER 9: DISTRIBUTION OF A FUNCTION OF MULTIPLE RANDOM VARIABLES ........................................................................... 442
9.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................................................................442
9.2. Distribution of a Function of Multiple Random Variables................................................................................................................442
9.2.1. Discrete Case ..................................................................................................................................................................................442
9.2.2. Continuous Case............................................................................................................................................................................444
9.3. The Sum of Independent Random Variables ....................................................................................................................................... 448
9.4. The Central Limit Theorem ...................................................................................................................................................................... 457
9.5. Order Statistics ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 461
9.6. Chapter Problems .........................................................................................................................................................................................471
CHAPTER 10: EXPECTED VALUE OF MULTIPLE RANDOM VARIABLES, COVARIANCE, AND CORRELATION ................................. 482
10.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 482
10.2. The Expected Value of a Function of Multiple Random Variables ................................................................................................. 482
10.3. The Expected Value of The Sum of Random Variables ...................................................................................................................... 487
10.4. Covariance Between Two Random Variables ..................................................................................................................................... 493
10.5. Correlation Coefficient Between Random Variables ......................................................................................................................... 506
10.6. Chapter Problems ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 510

CHAPTER 11: DETERMINING THE PROBABILITY FUNCTION AND EXPECTED VALUE BY CONDITIONING ..................................... 520
11.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 520
11.2. Determining The Probability Function by Conditioning .................................................................................................................. 521
11.3. Determining The Expected Value by Conditioning ............................................................................................................................523
11.4. The Expected Value and Variance of The Sum of A Random Number of Random Variables ................................................. 529
11.5. Chapter Problems ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 533
REFERENCES ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 541

III
I n this chapter, we will introduce some methods to count the number of elements
in a discrete and finite set. It will be observed in subsequent chapters that using
enumeration theory or combinatorial analysis is one of the primary and fundamental
methods in probability computation. However, the reader should note that there are
not fixed and specific methods for determining the number of states of a set. The
purpose of this chapter is to learn the primary and fundamental principles of
enumeration and to achieve the ability to generalize them for problems that have not
been observed before.

A ll methods of counting rely on the Basic Principle of Counting or the


Principle of Multiplication, which is expressed as follows:

Suppose that two trials are to be done. If the first trial can obtain one
out of the 𝒏 possible results and each of those results correspond with
the 𝒎 possible results of the second trial, then altogether there are
𝒏 × 𝒎 possible results for performing the two trials.

1|Page
A noteworthy point in applying the multiplication principle is to pay attention
to the phrase “each of those results”. Even though it seems obvious, many mistakes
occurring in usage of the multiplication principle result from disregarding the very
point. Note the following examples:

Example 2.1

There are 12 coaches, each of whom has 4 athletes participating in a ceremony.


If one coach and one of his athletes are to be chosen as the coach and athlete of the
year, respectively, how many different choices are possible to do so?
Solution. We define the first and second trials to be choosing the coach and athlete
of the year, respectively. The first trial can be done in 12 states, and given the
selection of each coach in the first trial, choosing his athlete can be done in 4 states.
Hence, the trials can be performed in 12 × 4 = 48 states.

Example 2.2

Suppose that five coaches have two athletes each and the other seven
coaches have three athletes each. Now, if we want to choose one coach and one of
his athletes as the coach and athlete of the year, how many different choices are
possible to do so?
Solution. Since given some of the results of the first trial (choosing coaches), there
are two results for the second trial (choosing athletes). Also, given some other
results of the first trial, there are three possible results for the second trial. Hence,
we cannot directly use the principle of counting. In such situations, we should
divide the problem into two different parts and, concerning the principle of
multiplication, count the number of states belonging to each part. Then, by using

2|Page
the Principle of Plus (the additional plus), we will add up the number of states of
each part. Consequently, the answer to this example equals 5 × 2 + 7 × 3 = 31.
Generally, if there are 𝑛2 results for each of the 𝑛1 results of the first trial and
𝑚2 results for each of the 𝑚1 results of the second trial, then these two trials can be
done in 𝑛1 𝑛2 + 𝑚1 𝑚2 states altogether.
If more than two trials are to be performed, the principle of multiplication can
be generalized as follows:

Suppose that 𝒓 trials are to be performed such that the first trial
consists of 𝒏𝟏 possible results and for each of those results, there are
𝒏𝟐 possible outcomes for the second trial and for each of the results
of the first and second trials, there are 𝒏𝟑 results for the third trial
and, …, and for each of the results of the first (𝒓 − 𝟏) trials, there are
𝒏𝒓 possible outcomes for the 𝒓𝒕𝒉 trial. Then, there are 𝒏𝟏 𝒏𝟐 𝒏𝟑 . . . 𝒏𝒓
states to perform 𝒓 trials altogether.

Example 2.3

How many four-digit numbers are there in a way that the digits are not the
same?
Solution. We define the trials to be the determination of the digits of the four-
digit number from left to right, respectively. The first trial cannot be zero, which
leads to nine states. For each result of the first trial, there are nine outcomes for
the second trial (any number except for the first digit), and for each of the (9 × 9)
outcomes of the first and second trials, there are eight outcomes for the third trial
(any number except for the first and second digits), and finally for each of the
(9 × 9 × 8) outcomes of the first, second, and third trials, there are seven

3|Page
outcomes for the fourth trial (any number except for the first, second, and third
digits). Therefore, the answer is 9 × 9 × 8 × 7 = 4536.

Example 2.4

How many four-digit numbers are there in a way that the consecutive digits
are not the same?
Solution. We define the trials to be the determination of the digits of the four-digit
number from left to right, respectively. The first trial cannot be zero, which leads to
nine outcomes. For each result of the first trial, there are nine outcomes for the
second trial (any number except for the first digit), and for each of the (9 × 9)
outcomes of the first and second trials, there are nine outcomes for the third trial
(any number except for the second digit), and finally for each of the (9 × 9 × 9)
outcomes of the first, second, and third trials, there are nine outcomes for the third
trial (any number except for the third digit). Therefore, the answer is:
9 × 9 × 9 × 9 = 94 = 6561

Example 2.5

How many three-digit even numbers can be made using 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5


without repetition?
Solution. For the first trial (choosing units digit), there are three possible
outcomes. Namely, 0, 2, and 4. However, the reader should note that for the
number of states of the second trial (choosing hundreds digit), if we consider the
values of 2 and 4 as the results of the first trial, there will be four outcomes for
the second trial. Also, if we consider the value of zero as the result of the first trial,
there will be five possible outcomes for the second trial. Hence, the problem
should be divided into two different parts, and the answer is equal to:

4|Page
4×4×2 result 2,4
+5 × 4 × 1 result 0
= 52
There is another approach to solve the example. If we define the first and
second trials to be the determination of the hundreds and units digits, respectively,
given the three possible results of the first trial (1, 3, and 5), there are three outcomes
for the second trial (0, 2, and 4). Furthermore, given the other two results of the first
trial (2 and 4), there are two outcomes for the second trial (zero and the digit not
resulting from in the previous trial). Therefore, the total number of states is
calculated as follows:
3 × 4 × 3 + 2 × 4 × 2 = 52

A common type of problems concerning the combinatorial analysis relates to the


number of states of arranging “𝑛” elements in different places, which is
addressed in this section.

According to the principle of multiplication, the number of states of putting


“𝑛” distinct elements into 𝑛 different places is equal to:

𝑛 × (𝑛 − 1) × ⋯ × 3 × 2 × 1 = 𝑛!

To determine the first element put into the first place, there are 𝑛 possible
states, and for each state of selecting the element of the first place, there are (𝑛 − 1)
possible choices for the element of the next place. In the same manner, there is one
state for the element of the 𝑛𝑡ℎ place. Therefore, the number of states in which “𝑛”
distinct elements can be arranged in “𝑛” different places is equal to 𝑛! states.

5|Page
Example 3.1

How many ways can five girls and five boys be seated in a row if
a) There is no restriction for sitting?
b) The girls sit together, and so do the boys?
c) The girls sit together?
d) The girls and boys sit alternately?
Solution.
a) Assuming that all the ten places are distinguishable from left to right,
we should arrange the ten people (ten distinct elements) in ten different
places. Therefore, the answer is 10!.
b) The boys can sit together in 5! states, and so do the girls. Moreover,
these two groups of boys and girls can be displaced in 2! states.
Consequently, according to the principle of multiplication, the number
of states is equal to 5! × 5! × 2!.
c) The girls can sit together in 5! states. Furthermore, the group of girls
along with the remaining five boys accounts for six different groups to
be displaced in 6! states. Consequently, according to the principle of
multiplication, the number of states is equal to 5! × 6!.
d) There are ten states for the first place, but since the person sitting in
the second place should not have the same gender as the first place,
there are five states for the second place. A person sitting in the third
place should have the same gender as the first position. Therefore, there
are four states for the third place. Likewise, each person sitting in each
place should have the same gender as the person sitting in the previous
two places. Hence, the total number of states is equal to: 10 × 5 × 4 ×
4 × 3 × 3 × 2 × 2 × 1 × 1 = 2 × 5! × 5!

6|Page
The number of ways that we can select 𝑟 distinct elements from 𝑛 distinct ones
and arrange them is equal to:
𝑛!
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) . . . (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) =
(𝑛 − 𝑟) !
There are “𝑛” states for determining the element of the first place. Then, for
each of the states belonging to the element of the first place, there are (𝑛 − 1) states
for the element of the next place. Likewise, there are (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) states for
determining the element of the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ place. Hence, the number of states that we can
select “𝑟” distinct elements from “𝑛” distinct ones and arrange them equals 𝑃𝑟𝑛 =
𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) . . . (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1). This can be written as follows:
𝑃𝑟𝑛 = 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1)
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
= 𝑛(𝑛 − 1)(𝑛 − 2) … (𝑛 − 𝑟 + 1) ×
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!
𝑛!
=
(𝑛 − 𝑟)!

Example 3.2

How many ways can we select a director, an administrative assistant, and a


financial deputy from a ten-member board?
Solution. For selection of the director, there are ten states. Then, for each state of
the ten states, there are nine states for determining the financial deputy. Given each
state of the two preceding trials, there are eight states to determine the
administrative assistant. Therefore, the number of states equals:
10!
𝑃310 = 10 × 9 × 8 =
7!

7|Page
In some problems, due to the sameness of some objects, the displacement
among them does not create a new state. For example, in arranging of numbers 22111,
the displacement among 1's does not result in a new state. In this section, we address
the number of states of such problems.

Example 3.3

How many different arrangements can be made using the letters 𝑎, 𝑎, 𝑐


(arrangements in which the letter “𝑎” and the letter “𝑐” appear twice and once,
respectively)?
Solution. In many cases, we confront new problems that are reasonably similar to
the previous ones solved, and their answer is straightforward to us. One method to
solve such problems is to find the ratio between the number of states of the new
problem and the old one as follows:
(The number of states of the new problem)
= (The number of states of the old problem) × 𝑘
Where the number of states of the new problem is calculated by finding 𝑘.
In this example, the value of two identical “𝑎” is the same, and their
displacement does not create a different state. To solve the example, we go for an
old problem which deals with determining the number of arrangements of letters 𝑎1 ,
𝑎2 , and 𝑐. As mentioned in Section 1.3.1, the number of states of this problem equals
3!. As seen below, every two states in the old problem are equivalent to one state in
the new problem. Therefore, it can be concluded that the number of states of the
new problem is half of the number of states of the old problem.
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑐 𝑎1 𝑐 𝑎2 𝑐 𝑎1 𝑎2
}⇒𝑎𝑎𝑐 }⇒𝑎𝑐𝑎 }⇒𝑐𝑎𝑎
𝑎2 𝑎1 𝑐 𝑎2 𝑐 𝑎1 𝑐 𝑎2 𝑎1
Hence, the number of possible states for arranging the letters a, a, and c can
be obtained as follows:

8|Page
𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑎, 𝑎, 𝑐)
1 1
= 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑐) × = 3! × = 3
2 2

Example 3.4

How many different arrangements can be made using the letters 𝑎, 𝑎, 𝑏, 𝑏?


Solution. The number of states to sort out 𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑏1 𝑏2 (an old problem) is equal to 4!.
Furthermore, as seen in the below, it can be shown that each 2! × 2! states of the old
problem are equivalent to one state of this example.

The number of states of The number of states of


the old problem the new problem

𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑏1 𝑏2
𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑏2 𝑏1
} ⇒ 𝑎𝑎𝑏𝑏
𝑎1 𝑎1 𝑏1 𝑏2
𝑎1 𝑎1 𝑏2 𝑏1
Consequently, the number of states of the problem is equal to:
4!
2! 2!

Example 3.5

How many different arrangements can be made using the letters 𝑎𝑎𝑏𝑏𝑐𝑐𝑐𝑐?
Solution. The number of states to sort out the letters 𝑎1 𝑎2 𝑏1 𝑏2 𝑐1 𝑐2 𝑐3 is equal to 7!.
Now, by considering Examples 4.3 and 5.3, it can be concluded that the number of
possible states of this example equals:

9|Page
7!
3! 2! 2!
In general, it can be shown that the number of sorting out “𝑛” elements, 𝑛1
of which are the same, 𝑛2 of which are the same, …, and 𝑛𝑘 of which are the same
is equal to
𝑛!
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! … 𝑛𝑘 !

The number of states that “𝑛” distinct elements can be arranged at a round
table is equal to (𝑛 − 1)!. To prove it, we should know that the only difference
between the problem of arranging people at a round table and in a row is that the
location of people does not matter in the former case, which the only important point
is the way of arranging the people. We are now trying to establish a relationship
between the number of states of this problem and the number of states of seating
people in a row. Also, it is intended to show that every “𝑛” states of seating people in
a row are equivalent to one state of seating people at a round table.
As mentioned previously, in the problem of arranging people at a round table,
the only important issue is the order of sitting. Hence, the states shown below are
considered indistinguishable:

A D C B

D B C A B D A C

C B A D

Therefore, there is a relationship between the states of seating people in a row


and at a round table as follows:

10 | P a g e
The states of seating in a row The states of seating at a round table

Hence, the number of states of seating people at a round table can be written
as follows:

𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑡 𝑎 𝑟𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑑 𝑡𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒


1 1
= (𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑒𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑛 𝑝𝑒𝑜𝑝𝑙𝑒 𝑖𝑛 𝑎 𝑟𝑜𝑤) × = 𝑛! × = (𝑛 − 1)!
𝑛 𝑛
There is also another way to justify the formula of arranging people around a
round table. Since different possible places of the round table do not create a new
state for the first person, there is only one state for him. However, after he sits, since
the way of sitting relative to the first person is important for the other ones, the value
of places turns out to be different, and the number of states of seating them relative
to the first person equals:
1 × (𝑛 − 1) × (𝑛 − 2) × (𝑛 − 3) × … × 1 = (𝑛 − 1)!

Example 3.6

How many ways can “𝑛” people be seated at a round table such that person A
sits between person B and person C?
Solution 1. There is one state for person A. Then, there are two states for person B
to sit on the left or right side of the person A. In this status, there is one state for
person C. Finally, the other (𝑛 − 3) people can sit on the remaining places in (𝑛 − 3)!
states. Therefore, the number of states equals:
1 × 2 × 1 × (𝑛 − 3)! = 2 × (𝑛 − 3)!

11 | P a g e
Solution 2. People A, B, and C form a three-member group, and the remaining (𝑛 − 3)
people form (𝑛 − 3) one-member groups. Therefore, we have (𝑛 − 2) groups
altogether to be arranged at a round table in (𝑛 − 3)! states. Meanwhile, for the group
including members A, B, and C, there are 2! states for the displacement of people B
and C on both sides of A. That is, there are two states (BAC) and (CAB). Therefore, the
answer is equal to:
(𝑛 − 3)! × 2!

S uppose that we have “𝑛” distinct objects. The number of states of choosing “𝑟”
distinct objects from these “𝑛” distinct objects (without considering the order of
choices) is equal to:

𝑛 𝑛!
𝐶𝑟𝑛 = ( ) =
𝑟 (𝑛 − 𝑟)! × (𝑟!)

To prove the above equation, it suffices to refer to one of the similar previous
problems with a straightforward answer. The number of states of selecting “𝑟”
distinct objects from “𝑛” distinct objects with consideration of their permutations
𝑛!
(orders) is 𝑃𝑟𝑛 = (𝑛−𝑟)! , every 𝑟! results of which are equivalent to one state of the new
problem (selecting objects without consideration of the permutations). For instance,
in choosing a three-member group from a ten-member group of people, every 3!
states of the problem with consideration of the order of choices are equivalent to
one state of the problem without consideration of the order of choices.

ABC 

ACB 
BAC  are equivalent to
 ⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯⎯→ {ABC}
BCA 
CAB 

CBA 

States of the old problem States of the new problem

12 | P a g e
Therefore, the number of states that we can choose three of the seven distinct
elements equals:

7 𝑃37 7!
𝐶37 = ( ) = =
3 3! 4! 3!
Likewise, in general, it can be shown that the number of states of choosing “𝑟”
elements from the “𝑛” distinct elements is equal to:
𝑃𝑟𝑛 𝑛! (𝑛)(𝑛 − 1) ⋯ (𝑛 − (𝑟 − 1)) 𝑛
𝐶𝑟𝑛 = = = =( )
𝑟! (𝑛 − 𝑟)! 𝑟! 𝑟! 𝑟

Example 4.1

Suppose that a class consists of five boys and four girls.


a) How many ways can a group of size 3 be chosen from them?
b) How many ways can a group of size 3 consisting of one girl and two boys
be chosen?
c) How many ways can a group of size 3 consisting of at most one boy be
chosen?

Solution.
a) The number of states of choosing three out of the nine people equals:
9 9! 9×8×7
( )= = = 84
3 3! 6! 3!
b) We define the first trial to be choosing one girl and the next trial to be
4
choosing two boys. There are ( ) states for the first trial, and for each
1
5
of these four states, there are ( ) states for the second trial. Therefore,
2
according to the principle of multiplication, the total number of states
equals:
4 5
( ) ( ) = 40
1 2

13 | P a g e
c) Considering the “at most one boy” restriction, we can choose either no
boy and three girls or one boy and two girls. Therefore, according to the
principle of multiplication, the total number of states equals:

5 4 5 4
( ) ( ) + ( ) ( ) = 1 × 4 + 5 × 6 = 34
0 3 1 2

Example 4.2

How many seven-letter arrangements can be formed using the letters aaabbcc
such that none of the a's is next to each other?
4!
Solution. First, we arrange bbcc which can be done in states. Then, we select
2!2!
three spaces for a's from the five spaces created with the letters. Finally, a's can be
arranged in one state (note that the displacement of a's does not create a new state
in the selected spaces).

b b c c

indicating the space that at most one "a" can be seated.

Hence, the number of states equals:


4! 5
×( )×1
2! 2! 3

14 | P a g e
Example 4.3

How many seven-letter arrangements can be formed using the letters abcddee
such that a, b, and c are not next to each other?
Solution. First, we arrange ddee. Then, we select three spaces for a, b, and c from 5
spaces created with the letters and arrange them in 3! states.

d d e e
Hence, the number of states equals:
4! 5
( ) 3! = 360
2! 2! 3

Example 4.4

Consider a set of 𝑛 people. How many possible selections are there to make
a committee of size 𝑟 such that an individual is the chairperson?
Solution. First, we choose a committee of size “𝑟” and then choose one of them as
𝑛
the chairperson. The number of states of the first trial equals ( ), and for each of
𝑟
𝑟
those states, we have ( ) states for the second trial. Therefore, according to the
1
principle of multiplication, the total number of states equals:
𝑛 𝑟
( )×( )
𝑟 1
Another approach to solve this problem is that we first choose the
chairperson and then the other committee members of size 𝑟. This will provide
𝑛 𝑛−1
( ) states for the first trial. Also, for each of these states, there will be ( )
1 𝑟−1

15 | P a g e
states for the second trial. Therefore, according to the principle of multiplication,
the total number of states equals:
𝑛 𝑛−1
( )×( )
1 𝑟−1
As observed in the above example, solving a combinatorial analysis problem
by using different ways can lead to some interesting combinatorial relations. Some
of them are addressed in the next section.

I n this section, we are about to introduce some of the widely used combinatorial
identities in the probability theory and prove them analytically. The first identity
is as follows:
𝑛 𝑛
( )=( ); 0≤𝑟≤𝑛 (5.1)
𝑟 𝑛−𝑟

To prove it analytically, suppose we have an 𝑛-member set and we want to


select “𝑟” members from them (left side of the identity). Such a selection can be made
by firstly choosing (𝑛 − 𝑟) members of the set, setting them aside (right side of the
identity), and then regarding the remaining 𝑟 members as the leading members of
the set.
The second combinatorial identity known as the Pascal's identity is expressed
as follows:
𝑛 𝑛−1 𝑛−1
( )=( ) +( ); 1≤𝑟≤𝑛 (5.2)
𝑟 𝑟−1 𝑟

Consider an 𝑛-member set and suppose that we want to select “𝑟” members
from the set (left side of the identity). To do so, regard a specific element such as “A”
and divide all the possible states into two groups. The first group consists of the
states in which the member “A” is among the “𝑟” members selected, and the second
group consists of states in which the member “A” is not among the “𝑟” members
selected (right side of the identity). The number of possible states in which the
1 𝑛−1
member “A” is selected equals ( ) ( ), and the number of possible states in which
1 𝑟−1

16 | P a g e
1 𝑛−1
the member “A” is not selected equals ( ) ( ). Hence, the total number of states
0 𝑟
is equal to:
1 𝑛−1 1 𝑛−1 𝑛−1 𝑛−1
( )( ) + ( )( )=( )+( )
0 𝑟 1 𝑟−1 𝑟 𝑟−1
The next identity is a useful relation, which will be used in the subsequent
chapters, and is expressed as follows:
𝑘
𝑚 𝑛 𝑚+𝑛
∑( )( ) =( ) (5.3)
𝑟 𝑘−𝑟 𝑘
𝑟=0
To prove the above identity, suppose that we have a set of size (𝑚 + 𝑛)
elements (for instance, “𝑛” women and “𝑚” men) from which we want to select “𝑘”
ones (right side of the identity). To do so, firstly, divide the set into two 𝑛-member
and 𝑚-member groups. We can then suppose that the 𝑘-member group selected can
consist of 0 members from the 𝑛-member set and 𝑘 members from the 𝑚-member
set, or one member from the 𝑛-member set and (𝑘 − 1) members from the 𝑚-
member set, and so on. Such a statement represents the left side of the identity (5.3).
Another identity utilized in the combinatorial analysis is identity (5.4)
expressed as follows:
𝑛 𝑚
𝑛 𝑚 𝑛 𝑚 𝑚+𝑛 𝑚+𝑛
∑( )( ) = ∑( )( ) = ( )=( ) (5.4)
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 𝑖 𝑛 𝑚
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

To prove, using Identities (5.1) and (5.3), we have:


𝑛 𝑚
𝑛 𝑚 𝑛 𝑚 𝑚+𝑛
∑( )( ) = ∑( )( ) = ( )
𝑖 𝑖 𝑛−𝑖 𝑖 𝑛
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

To understand the above identity better, suppose that we want to make a


subset from a committee consisting of four women and five men in a way that the
number of women equals that of the men (this subset can contain zero member). In
such conditions, the number of possible states equals:
4 4
4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4 5 4+5 9
( )( ) + ( )( ) + ⋯+ ( )( ) = ∑( )( ) = ∑( )( ) = ( )=( )
0 0 1 1 4 4 𝑖 𝑖 4−𝑖 𝑖 4 4
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

17 | P a g e
Note that if 4 as the upper bound of the summation above is replaced by 5, it
4 5
does not affect the answer because the term ( ) ( ) is equal to zero.
5 5
In Identity (5.4), if we replace the value of 𝑛 with 𝑚, then the following identity
is obtained:
𝑛
𝑛 2 2𝑛
∑( ) = ( ) (5.5)
𝑖 𝑛
𝑖=0

Another important identity that is commonly used in the combinatorial


analysis and probability theory is the Binomial Expansion. This is expressed as
follows:
𝑛 𝑛
𝑛 𝑛!
(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 ) = ∑ ( ) 𝑥1𝑖 𝑥2𝑛−𝑖 = ∑
𝑛
𝑥1𝑖 𝑥2𝑛−𝑖
𝑖 (𝑛
𝑖! − 𝑖)!
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

If we write (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )𝑛 as (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 ) ⋯ (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 ) and expand it, the


resulted expansion contains 2𝑛 members. For instance, suppose that we write the
term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )3 as (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 ). Thus, the expansion is:
(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )3 = (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )
= 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 + 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 + 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥1 + 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥2 + 𝑥2 𝑥1 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 𝑥1 𝑥2 + 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥2
It is seen that the expansion of (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )3 contains 23 members, some of which
are equal to each other.
Hence, the term above can be written as:
𝑥13 𝑥20 + 3𝑥12 𝑥21 + 3𝑥11 𝑥22 + 𝑥10 𝑥23
As seen, the coefficient of each term such as 𝑥11 𝑥22 equals the number of
times that this term is repeated among 23 possible terms. For example, the
coefficient of the term 𝑥11 𝑥22 equals 3 because after expanding the term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )3 ,
the term 𝑥11 𝑥22 is repeated three times as 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥2 , 𝑥2 𝑥1 𝑥2 , and 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥1 . Since each of
these three terms is one arrangement of letters 𝑥1 , 𝑥2 , and 𝑥2 , their number of
states based on the matters expressed in Section 1.3.3 is equal to
3! 3
=( )
1! 2! 1

18 | P a g e
Likewise, it can be shown that if we expand the term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )𝑛 , some of the
terms will be equal to each other. As a result, the coefficient of each term such as
𝑥1𝑖 𝑥2𝑛−𝑖 is its number of repetitions, that is:
𝑛! 𝑛
=( )
𝑖! (𝑛 − 𝑖)! 𝑖

Example 5.1

What is the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 𝑥2 3 in the expansion of (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )10 ?


Solution. The completed expansion of (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 )10 is as follows:
10
10 10
(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 ) = ∑( ) 𝑥1 𝑖 𝑥210−𝑖
𝑖
𝑖=0

10
Hence, the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 𝑥2 3 in this expansion equals ( ).
7

Example 5.2

What is the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 𝑥2 3 in the expansion of (2𝑥1 + 3𝑥2 )10?


Solution. The completed expansion of (2𝑥1 + 3𝑥2 )10 is as follows:
10 10
10 10 10
(2𝑥1 + 3𝑥2 ) = ∑ ( ) (2𝑥1 )𝑖 (3𝑥2 )10−𝑖 = ∑ ( ) 2𝑖 310−𝑖 𝑥1 𝑖 𝑥210−𝑖
𝑖 𝑖
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

10 7 3
Consequently, the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 𝑥2 3 in this expansion equals ( )2 3 .
7

19 | P a g e
Example 5.3

What is the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 in the expansion of (2𝑥1 + 3)10 ?


Solution. The completed expansion of (2𝑥1 + 3)10 is as follows:
10 10
10 10 10
(2𝑥1 + 3) = ∑ ( ) (2𝑥1 )𝑖 (3)10−𝑖 = ∑ ( ) 2𝑖 310−𝑖 𝑥1 𝑖
𝑖 𝑖
𝑖=0 𝑖=0

10 7 3
Therefore, the coefficient of 𝑥1 7 in this expansion equals ( )2 3 .
7
In the binomial expansion identity, if we substitute value 1 for 𝑥1 and 𝑥2 , the
following result is obtained:
𝑛
𝑛
∑ ( ) = 2𝑛 (5.6)
𝑖
𝑖=0

Also, to prove the above identity analytically, suppose that we want to


determine the number of subsets of an 𝑛-member set. On the left side of the
identity, the number of subsets including zero member, one member, two
members, …, and 𝑛 members, are separately calculated and then added together.
The right side of the identity is considered such that to making a subset from an
𝑛-member set, each member of the main set can be present or absent in the subset
(it has two states). Therefore, the number of states that a subset can be made from
an 𝑛-member set equals 2 × 2 × 2 × … × 2 = 2𝑛 .
Furthermore, in the binomial expansion identity, if we substitute the values
of −1 and 1 for 𝑥1 and 𝑥2 , the following result is obtained:
𝑛 𝑛
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
(−1 + 1) = ∑ ( ) (−1)𝑖 1𝑛−𝑖 = ∑ ( ) (−1)𝑖 = 0 ⇒ ( ) − ( ) + ( ) − ( ) + ⋯ = 0
𝑛
𝑖 𝑖 0 1 2 3
𝑖=0 𝑖=0
𝑛 𝑛
⇒ ∑ ( ) = ∑ ( )
𝑖 𝑖
𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑖 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑖

20 | P a g e
In addition, we know that:
𝑛
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
∑ ( ) + ∑ ( ) = ∑ ( ) = 2𝑛
𝑖 𝑖 𝑖
𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑖 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑖 𝑖=0

Therefore, we have:
𝑛 𝑛
∑ ( ) = ∑ ( ) = 2𝑛−1 (5.7)
𝑖 𝑖
𝑜𝑑𝑑 𝑖 𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛 𝑖

The generalized form of the binomial expansion is called the Multinomial


Expansion, which is presented as follows:
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛! 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑟 )𝑛 = ∑ (𝑛 , . . . , 𝑛 ) 𝑥1 1 𝑥2 2 ⋯ 𝑥𝑟 𝑟 = ∑ 𝑥 1 𝑥 2 ⋯ 𝑥𝑟 𝑟
1 𝑟 𝑛1 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟 ! 1 2
𝑛1 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛 𝑛1 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛 (5.8)

To prove the above identity, it suffices to expand it in the same manner as the
binomial expansion. For instance, consider the trinomial expansion (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )7:

(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )7 = (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 ) ⋯ (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )


= 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 + 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 + 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥1 + ⋯ + 𝑥3 𝑥3 𝑥3 𝑥3 𝑥3 𝑥3 𝑥3

As mentioned in the binomial expansion, some of the terms are equal to each
other after expanding the term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )7. Furthermore, the coefficient of each
term, such as 𝑥13 𝑥22 𝑥32 , is equal to the number of times that the term has been
7! 7
repeated. For instance, the coefficient of the term 𝑥13 𝑥22 𝑥32 is equal to =( )
3!2!2! 3,2,2
7!
because after expanding the term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 )7, the term 𝑥13 𝑥22 𝑥32 is repeated
3!2!2!
7
=( ) times. Some of them are 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥3 , 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥3 , and 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥1 𝑥3 𝑥3 .
3,2,2
Each of these terms is equivalent to one arrangement of the letters 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥3
7! 7
that can be arranged in =( ) states.
3!2!2! 3,2,2

21 | P a g e
Likewise, it can be shown that if we expand the term (𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑟 )𝑛 , some
of the terms are equal to each other. As a result, the coefficient of each term, such as
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛! 𝑛
𝑥1 1 𝑥2 2 … 𝑥𝑟 𝑟 , is equal to its number of repetitions, which is = (𝑛 , 𝑛 , . . . , 𝑛 ).
𝑛1 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟 ! 1 2 𝑟

In the multinomial expansion, if the coefficient of 𝑥𝑖 's equals 1, we call it the


simple multinomial expansion. To obtain the sum of the coefficients in each
multinomial expansion, we should substitute the value of 1 for 𝑥𝑖 's. Therefore, the
sum of the coefficients in the simple multinomial expansion equals 𝑟 𝑛 .

𝑛 𝑛!
∑ (𝑛 , . . . , 𝑛 ) = ∑ = 𝑟𝑛
1 𝑟 𝑛1 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟 !
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛

Example 5.4

Obtain the coefficient of the term 𝑥1 4 𝑥2 6 in the expansion of (3𝑥1 2 + 2𝑥2 3 + 2)10 .
Solution. The completed expansion of the term (3𝑥1 2 + 2𝑥2 3 + 2)10 is as follows:
10!
(3𝑥1 2 + 2𝑥2 3 + 2)10 = ∑ (3𝑥1 2 )𝑛1 (2𝑥2 3 )𝑛2 (2)𝑛3
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 = 10
10!
=∑ 3𝑛1 2𝑛2 2𝑛3 (3𝑥1 2 )𝑛1 (2𝑥2 3 )𝑛2 (2)𝑛3
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 = 10
Therefore, the coefficient of the term 𝑥1 4 𝑥2 6 in this expansion equals:
10!
32 22 26
2! 2! 6!

22 | P a g e
I n some combinatorial analysis problems, the goal is to count the number of states
of putting some objects (balls) into some containers (cells or urns). In this type of
problems, the term “indistinguishable objects” means that only the number of each
container's objects matters. Moreover, the displacement of an object from a
container with the other object from another container does not create a new state
(the value of objects is the same). On the contrary, the term “distinguishable objects”
means that both the number of objects and their values in each container are
important. In other words, if the values of objects are assumed to be different, the
displacement of one object from a container with the other object from another
container creates a new state.

If the objects are assumed to be the same or


𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 𝑥 indistinguishable, the displacement of an object inside
an urn with that of another object inside another urn
does not create a new state.
𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥3 𝑥4 𝑥5

If the objects are assumed to be different or


distinguishable, the displacement of an object inside
𝑥1 𝑥2 𝑥4 𝑥3 𝑥5 an urn with that of another object inside another urn
creates a new state.

Furthermore, the term “indistinguishable containers” means that groupmates


of each object matter. Nonetheless, “the different containers” means that in addition
to the groupmates, the urn of each object is important as well.

Different rooms 4 people in 2 two-member rooms The same rooms

23 | P a g e
In this book, when distributing the people into physical places (such as a class,
a room, and an avenue, to name but a few), we consider individuals to be different
unless otherwise stated in the problem (For instance, it is explicitly stated in the
problem that the value of people is the same or only the number of individuals lying
in each place is important.). Furthermore, we consider physical places to be distinct
urns unless otherwise stated in the problem (For instance, it is explicitly stated in the
problem that only the number of each person's groupmates matters, not their place.)
If we want to group the people, we consider the groups to be identical urns, unless
otherwise stated in the problem.
Now, we investigate some well-known cases in the ball and urn model. Note
that the classification scheme of this book is merely a suggestion for classifying the
ball and urn model's problems, which is not necessarily adopted in all reference
books.

Type 1: Putting distinguishable objects into distinguishable urns such that the
number of objects in each urn is determinate.

Suppose that we want to distribute “𝑛” distinguishable objects into “𝑟”


distinguishable urns in a way that 𝑛1 objects are put into the first urn, 𝑛2 objects
into the second urn, ... , and 𝑛𝑟 objects into the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ urn such that ∑𝑟𝑖= 1 𝑛𝑖 = 𝑛. There
𝑛
are (𝑛 ) states for choosing the objects of the first urn, and given each state of
1
𝑛 − 𝑛1
choosing the objects of the first urn, there are ( 𝑛 ) states for choosing the
2
objects of the second urn, and so on. Therefore, the total number of states is equal
to:
𝑛 𝑛 − 𝑛1 𝑛 − 𝑛1 − 𝑛2 − ⋯ − 𝑛𝑟−1
(𝑛 ) ( 𝑛 ) … ( 𝑛𝑟 )
1 2
𝑛! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 )! (𝑛 − 𝑛1 − ⋯ − 𝑛𝑟−1 )!
= × × ⋯×
𝑛1 ! × (𝑛 − 𝑛1 )! 𝑛2 ! × (𝑛 − 𝑛1 − 𝑛2 )! 𝑛𝑟 ! × 0!
𝑛! 𝑛
= = (𝑛 , 𝑛 , … , 𝑛 )
𝑛1 ! × 𝑛2 ! × ⋯ × 𝑛𝑟 ! 1 2 𝑟

Hence, the number of possible states to distribute “𝑛” distinguishable objects


into “𝑟” distinguishable urns such that 𝑛1 objects are put into the first urn, 𝑛2 objects
into the second urn, ... , and 𝑛𝑟 objects into the 𝑟 𝑡ℎ urn is equal to:

24 | P a g e
𝑛! 𝑛
= (𝑛 , 𝑛 , … , 𝑛 )
𝑛1 ! × 𝑛2 ! × ⋯ × 𝑛𝑟 ! 1 2 𝑟

This book entitles this type of problem as the "Type 1" of ball and urn problems.
In such problems, it is essential to note the properties of the given problem.
Consequently, note that the formula of type 1 belongs to the problems possessing
properties as follows:
a. Objects are distinguishable (“𝑛” distinguishable objects).
b. Urns are distinguishable (“𝑟” distinguishable urns).
c. It is known that precisely which urn receives 𝑛1 objects, which urn
receives 𝑛2 objects, …, and which urn gets 𝑛𝑟 objects.

Example 6.1

How many ways can seven people be distributed into three rooms numbered
from 1 to 3 such that three people are in room 1, two people in room 2, and two people
in room 3?
Solution. If we define the trials 1, 2, and 3 to be the determination of the number of
7
people who are in rooms 1, 2, and 3 respectively, there are ( ) states for the first trial.
3
4
For each of those states, there are ( ) states for the second trial, and for each state
2
2
of the first and second trials, there is ( ) state for the third trial. Hence, the number
2
of possible states is obtained as:
7 4 2 7!
( )( )( ) = = 210
3 2 2 3! 2! 2!

Meanwhile, the reader should note that the order of trials can also occur in
other ways. For instance, we can first determine the people of room 2, then the room
1, and finally the room 3. Therefore, the number of states for this case is equal to:

25 | P a g e
7 5 2
( ) ( ) ( ) = 210
2 3 2
Type 2: Putting distinguishable objects into distinguishable urns such that one
urn receives 𝑛1 objects, one urn receives 𝑛2 objects, and so on (it is not known
which urn receives 𝑛1 objects, which urn receives 𝑛2 objects, and so on.).

Suppose that we want to distribute a set, consisting of “𝑛” distinguishable


objects, into “𝑟” distinguishable urns in a way that 𝑛1 objects are put into an urn, 𝑛2
objects into another urn, ... , 𝑛𝑟 objects into the other urn such that ∑𝑟𝑖=1 𝑛𝑖 = 𝑛.
Moreover, it is not known exactly which urn has 𝑛1 objects, which urn has 𝑛2 objects,
…, and which urn has 𝑛𝑟 objects.
This book entitles this type of problem as the "Type 2" of the ball and urn
problems. To solve it, we first determine which urn gets 𝑛1 objects, which urn gets
𝑛2 objects, …, and which urn gets 𝑛𝑟 objects. Then, we confront a type 1 problem
because the number of objects in each urn is known. In other words, doing some
more trials converts the type 2 problem into type 1 problem. Properties of the type 2
problem are as follows:
a. Objects are distinguishable.
b. Urns are distinguishable.
c. On urn receives 𝑛1 objects, one urn receives 𝑛2 objects, …, and one urn
receives 𝑛𝑟 objects, but it is not known that precisely which urn gets 𝑛1
objects, which urn gets 𝑛2 objects, …, and which urn gets 𝑛𝑟 objects.

Example 6.2

How many ways can seven people be distributed into 3 rooms such that 2 or 3
people are in each room?
Solution. The number of states for this problem can be written as a sum of three
following states:

26 | P a g e
The first state: 3, 2, and 2 people are in rooms 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The
7 4 2 7!
number of states is equal to ( ) ( ) ( ) = = 210.
3 2 2 3!2!2!
The second state: 2, 3, and 2 people are in rooms 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The
7 5 2 7!
number of states is equal to ( ) ( ) ( ) = = 210.
2 3 2 2!3!2!
The third state: 2, 2, and 3 people are in rooms 1, 2, and 3 respectively. The
7 5 3 7!
number of states is equal to ( ) ( ) ( ) = = 210.
2 2 3 2!2!3!
Therefore, the number of states for this problem equals the sum of the above
7!
three states. That is, 3 × = 630.
3!2!2!
In fact, since the problem does not specify the two and three-member rooms,
we should first clarify this issue. For this purpose, it suffices to choose the three-
3
member room, which is possible in ( ) states. After that, similar to the type 1
1
7 4 2
problem, the number of states for each room is specified, and there are ( ) ( ) ( ) =
3 2 2
7!
ways to determine people of the rooms. Consequently, the number of states
3!2!2!
3 7!
for this problem is equal to ( ) = 630.
1 3!2!2!

Example 6.3

How many ways can seven people be distributed into 4 two-member rooms?
Solution. One of the rooms is occupied by one person, and each of the other three
rooms is occupied by two people. However, the one-member and two-member
rooms are not specified. Therefore, first, we should determine which room is one-
member. Then, the number of people in each room is specified. Furthermore, we
should select the individuals in the same way as the type 1 problem. Hence, the
number of states is equal to:

27 | P a g e
4 7 5 3 1 4 7!
( )( )( )( )( ) = ( )
1 2 2 2 1 1 1! 2! 2! 2!
Note that when we determine the one-member room, the number of two-
member rooms is obtained automatically. To specify the number of individuals in the
rooms, instead of determining the one-member room, the two-member rooms can
4
be selected, which has ( ) states. Therefore, the number of states of this problem
3
can be written as follows:
4 7!
( )
3 2! 2! 2! 1!
In general, the number of possible states for distributing “𝑛” distinguishable
objects into “𝑟” distinguishable urns in a way that one urn gets 𝑛1 objects, …, and one
urn gets 𝑛𝑟 objects such that it is not known which urn gets 𝑛1 objects, which urn
gets 𝑛2 objects, and so on is equal to:
𝑛!
(The number of states to specify how many objects are in each urn) ×
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 !. . . 𝑛𝑟 !
where 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛.

Example 6.4

How many ways can seven people be distributed into 4 two-member rooms
such that two particular people are supposed to be in a room?
4
Solution. First, we select the room of two particular people in ( ) states. Then, one
1
out of the remaining three rooms is occupied by one person, and each of the other
two rooms is occupied by two people. Therefore, we confront the type 2 problem. In
such situations, we select one of the remaining three rooms as the one-member
room, and the other two rooms will be automatically two-member rooms. Now, we
choose the people of each room. Therefore, the number of states equals:

4 3 5!
( )( )
1 1 2! 2! 1!

28 | P a g e
Example 6.5

How many ways can ten prizes be distributed among three people such that
one person receives five prizes, another person receives three prizes, and the other
person receives two prizes?
Solution. First, we determine the person who receives the five prizes (the first trial),
the one who receives three prizes (the second trial), and the individual who receives
two prizes. Then, we distribute prizes (objects) among the individuals. Therefore, the
number of states is equal to:

3 2 1 10!
( )( )( )
1 1 1 5! 3! 2!

Example 6.6

How many ways can seven people be distributed among 3 three-member


rooms?
Solution. There are two general states for this problem:
The first state: one room is occupied by one person, and each of the other two
rooms is occupied by three individuals, which is the type 2 problem. Hence, the
number of states in this case is equal to:
3 7!
( ) = 420
1 1! 3! 3!
The second state: one room is occupied by three individuals, and each of the
other two rooms is occupied by two individuals, which is the type 2 problem. Hence,
the number of states in this case is:
3 7!
( ) = 630
1 3! 2! 2!
29 | P a g e
Therefore, the number of states of this problem is equal to:
3 7! 3 7!
( ) +( ) = 420 + 630 = 1050
1 1! 3! 3! 1 3! 2! 2!

Type 3: Putting distinguishable objects into indistinguishable (identical) urns


such that the number of objects in each urn is a specific value.

Suppose that we want to distribute “𝑛” distinguishable objects into “𝑟”


indistinguishable urns in a way that one urn gets 𝑛1 objects, one urn gets 𝑛2
objects, ..., and one urn gets 𝑛𝑟 objects such that ∑𝑟𝑖= 1 𝑛𝑖 = 𝑛. This book entitles this
type of problems as the "Type 3" of the ball and urn problems, the properties of
which are as follows:
a. Objects are distinguishable.
b. Urns are indistinguishable.
c. One urn receives 𝑛1 objects, one urn receives 𝑛2 objects, …, and one urn
receives 𝑛𝑟 objects.

Example 6.7

Suppose that we want to position four people in two indistinguishable two-


member rooms. How many ways are there to do so?
Solution. The difference between this example and the type 1 and 2 problems
discussed in this book is that, herein, the rooms are indistinguishable. In other words,
only each person's groupmates matter, not his or her room. If it is supposed to
position four people in two distinguishable two-member rooms numbered from 101
4 2
to 102, we are confronted with an old problem belonging to the type 1 with ( ) ( ) =
2 2
4!
states. Now, if we regard Example 6.7 as a new problem, it can be shown as
2!2!
follows that every 2! states of the old problem are equivalent to one state of the new
problem. This is related to the creation of a new state as a result of the displacement

30 | P a g e
of groups in distinct urns. However, this is not true for the case of indistinguishable
urns.
Distinguishable 4 people in 2 two-member rooms Indistinguishable
Room 101 Room 102

Every 2! States of the left problem


are equivalent to one state of the
right problem

Therefore, the number of states in the old problem is 2! times that of the states
in the new problem. To show the number of states in the new problem, we have:

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑖𝑛𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠)


1 4! 1
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠) × = ×
2! 2! 2! 2!

Example 6.8

How many ways can nine people be distributed into 3 three-member rooms
such that:
a. Rooms are different and numbered from 101 to 103?
b. Rooms are identical?

31 | P a g e
Solution.
a. If it is supposed to position nine people in three different three-member
rooms, we confront the type 1 problem, and the number of states equals:
9 6 3 9!
( )( )( ) =
3 3 3 3! 3! 3!

b. In this problem, rooms are indistinguishable, and only each person's


groupmates matter. If we regard the section (b) of this example as a new
problem and its section (a) as an old problem, it can be shown as follows
that every 3! states of the old problem are equivalent to one state of the
new problem:
Distinguishable rooms 9 people in 3 two-member rooms Indistinguishable rooms

Room 101 Room 102 Room 103

Every 3! from the left problem equals one state of the right problem

However, the above figure shows only 6 states out of the total number of states
in section (a) and one state out of the total number of states in section (b). It is
presented to comprehend the relationship between sections (a) and (b) in a better
way.
Hence, the number of states in the old problem is 3! times that of the states in
the new problem. To show the number of states in the new problem, we have:

𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑒𝑤 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠)


1 9! 1
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑜𝑙𝑑 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑏𝑙𝑒𝑚 (𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑢𝑖𝑠ℎ𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠) × = ×
3! 3! 3! 3! 3!

32 | P a g e
Example 6.9

Suppose that we want to group seven people. Obtain the number of possible
states in the following conditions:
a. If we have three different rooms numbered 1 through 3 such that the
room 1 is occupied by three people, the room 2 is occupied by two
people, and the room 3 is occupied by two people.
b. If we have three different rooms numbered 1 through 3 such that one
room is occupied by three people, and each of the other two rooms is
occupied by two people.
c. If we have three identical rooms such that one room is occupied by
three people, and each of the other two rooms is occupied by two
people.

Solution.
a. In Section (a) of this example, since the number of people in each room
are specific, we face the type 1 problem. The number of desired states
is:
7 4 2 7!
( )( )( ) = = 210
3 2 2 3! 2! 2!

b. In Section (b) of this example, since rooms are distinguishable and it is


not specified which room is three-member, we should select it that
indicates the type 2 problem. Therefore, its number of states is equal to:
3 7 4 2 7!
( )( )( )( ) = 3× = 630
1 3 2 2 3! 2! 2!

c. In this problem, the rooms are indistinguishable, and only the number
of each person's groupmates matters. If we regard Section (c) of this
example as a new problem, Section (a) or (b) can be used to solve it. It
can be shown as follows that if we regard the Section (a) as an old

33 | P a g e
problem, every 2! states of the old problem are equivalent to one state
of the new problem. However, if we regard Section (b) as an old
problem, every 3! states of the old problem are equivalent to one state
of the new problem.

The section b (Type 2) The section c (Type 3) The section a (Type 1)


Room 1 Room 2 Room 3 Room 1 Room 2 Room 3

However, the above figure shows some states of the sections (a), (b), and (c),
presented to better realize the relationship of this example's sections. Also, in the
figure above, with regard to the relationship between the sections (a) and (c), the
reader should note that the displacement of two-member groups in rooms 2 and 3,
which are two-member, creates a new state in Section (a), but it does not lead to a
new state in Section (c), where the rooms are assumed to be indistinguishable.
Furthermore, in the sections (b) and (c), the displacement of all groups in different
rooms creates a new state in Section (b), but it does not result in a new state in
Section (c), where the rooms are assumed to be indistinguishable.
Therefore, to solve Section (c), if we regard Section (a) as an old problem, the
number of states in the old problem is 2! times that of the states in the new problem.
To show the number of states in the new problem, we have:
𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑐)
1 7! 1
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑎) ×
= × = 105
2! 3! 2! 2! 2!
Besides, to solve Section (c), if we regard Section (b) as an old problem, the
number of states in the old problem is 3! times that of the number of states in the
new problem. To show the number of states in the new problem, we have:
the number of states in section (c)
1 3 7! 1
= 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑛𝑢𝑚𝑏𝑒𝑟 𝑜𝑓 𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 (𝑏) × =( ) × = 105
3! 1 3! 2! 2! 3!

34 | P a g e
Consequently, to solve Section (c), where the urns are indistinguishable, two
methods are presented. We usually use the first method in this book, and its general
structure is as follows:
The number of states to put “𝑛” distinguishable objects into “𝑟”
indistinguishable urns such that one urn receives 𝑛1 objects, one urn receives 𝑛2
objects, …, and one urn receives 𝑛𝑟 objects is equal to:
𝑛! 1
×
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! . . . 𝑛𝑟 ! 𝑘1 ! 𝑘2 !. . .
where 𝑘𝑖 's are the urns having the same number of objects. For example, consider
two urns, each with three objects, and another two urns, each with two objects.
Then, we have 𝑘1 = 2 and 𝑘2 = 2, meaning that the number of possible states to
distribute ten people among four groups, where two of them are two-member and
10! 1
the other two groups are three-member, is equal to × .
2!2!3!3! 2!2!

Type 4: Putting distinguishable objects into distinguishable urns such that


there is no restriction on the number of objects in the urns.

Suppose that we want to determine the number of states for distributing “𝑛”
distinguishable objects into “𝑟” distinguishable urns without any restriction on the
number of objects in each urn. The first object has “𝑟” states to be put into the urns.
For each of the results of the first trial, there are “𝑟” states for the second object, …,
and for each result of the previous trials, there are “𝑟” states for the 𝑛𝑡ℎ object. Hence,
according to the principle of multiplication, it can be done in 𝑟 𝑛 states. In this book,
we entitle this problem as the "Type 4" with the following properties:
a. Objects are distinguishable.
b. Urns are distinguishable.
c. Without any restriction on the number of objects in each urn.

Note that the type 4 problem can be written as a sum of type 1 states. For
example, suppose that we want to distribute 𝑛 = 3 distinguishable objects into 𝑟 = 2
distinguishable urns. The number of states for this problem is 𝑟 𝑛 = 23 . Furthermore,
we can write the number of states for this problem as the sum of some type 1
problems as follows:

35 | P a g e
Urn 1 Urn 2 The number of states
3!
3 0 =1
3!0!
3!
2 1 =3
2!1!
3!
1 2 =3
1!2!
3!
0 3 =1
0!3!
The total number of states= 𝑟 𝑛 = 23 = 8
Therefore, in general, the number of states to put “𝑛” distinguishable objects
into “𝑟” distinguishable urns without any restriction is equal to:
𝑛 𝑛!
𝑟𝑛 = ∑ (𝑛 , … , 𝑛 ) = ∑
1 𝑟 𝑛1 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟 !
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛 𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛
A close look reveals that the number of states of the type 4 problem is equal to
the sum of the coefficients of simple multinomial expansion. To show this
relationship, it suffices to let 𝑥𝑖 's equal 1:
𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛! 𝑛 𝑛 𝑛
(𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + ⋯ + 𝑥𝑟 )𝑛 = ∑ (𝑛 , . . . , 𝑛 ) 𝑥1 1 𝑥2 2 … 𝑥𝑟 𝑟 = ∑ 𝑥1 1 𝑥2 2 … 𝑥𝑟 𝑟
1 𝑟 𝑛1 ! ⋯ 𝑛𝑟 !
𝑛1 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛 𝑛1 + ⋯ + 𝑛𝑟 = 𝑛

Example 6.10

How many ways can ten officers be placed in three important avenues?
Solution. As mentioned before, since there are three possible states for each officer,
the total number of states equals 𝑟 𝑛 = 310 , which can be written as the sum of the
type 1 states.
Therefore, the answer to this problem is:

36 | P a g e
10!
∑ = 310
𝑛1 ! 𝑛2 ! 𝑛3 !
𝑛1 + 𝑛2 + 𝑛3 = 10

Example 6.11

How many ways can ten officers be placed in three important avenues such
that the first avenue contains exactly three officers?
Solution. We first select three officers and place them in the first avenue. Then, we
send the remaining seven officers to the other two avenues without any restriction.
Hence, the answer equals:
10
( ) × 27 = 120 × 27
3

Type 5: Putting distinguishable objects into distinguishable urns such that


each urn receives at least one object.

Suppose that we want to distribute “𝑛” distinguishable objects into “𝑟”


distinguishable urns in a way that each urn receives at least one object. In this book,
we entitle this type of problem as the "Type 5" with the following properties:
a. Objects are distinguishable.
b. Urns are distinguishable.
c. There should be at least one object in each urn.

37 | P a g e
Example 6.12

How many ways can ten officers be placed in three avenues such that each
avenue has at least one officer?
One possible solution is to initially choose 3 out of the 10 officers and position
10
them in avenue 3. This is possible in ( ) 3! states. Then, according to the type 4
3
problem, the rest of the officers can be positioned in avenues in 37 states. Therefore,
10
the total number of states of this example becomes ( ) 3! × 37 states.
3
But the above solution is wrong!
The reason making the solution wrong is that some states are counted
multiple times instead of once. That is, if we first choose three officers numbered 1
through 3 and position them in avenues numbered 1 through 3 respectively, and then
position the others in avenue 1, this means that we have counted this state once.

Avenue (1) Avenue (2) Avenue (3)

1,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 2 3

However, if we first choose three officers numbered 4, 2, and 3 and position


them in avenues numbered 1, 2, and 3 respectively, and then send the remaining
seven officers to the avenue 1, we have regarded this state in our calculation as well.
Hence, this result is the same as the previous one, and we have counted it twice
without any logic. Also, note that there are more repetitive states in this solution that
are not explained here. To be more specific, the number of states related to this
specious solution is more than the total number of states. For example, the number
10
of states of this example resulting from the false solution is equal to ( ) 3! × 37
3
which is more than the total number of 310 possible states.
A method to solve the problem is to write it as a series of cases of the type (1)
in a way that none of the urns is empty, leading to following the number of states:

38 | P a g e
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into the giant republic. So the old captain finished such a task as
“God, after His manner, assigns to His Englishmen.”
XXXVI
A. D. 1670
THE BUCCANEERS

IT is only a couple of centuries since Spain was the greatest nation


on earth, with the Atlantic for her duck pond, the American
continents for her back yard, and a notice up to warn away the
English, “No dogs admitted.”
England was a little power then, Charles II had to come running
when the French king whistled, and we were so weak that the Dutch
burned our fleet in London River. Every year a Spanish fleet came
from the West Indies to Cadiz, laden deep with gold, silver, gems,
spices and all sorts of precious merchandise.
Much as our sailors hated to see all that treasure wasted on
Spaniards, England had to keep the peace with Spain, because
Charles II had his crown jewels in pawn and no money for such
luxuries as war. The Spanish envoy would come to him making
doleful lamentations about our naughty sailors, who, in the far Indies,
had insolently stolen a galleon or sacked a town. Charles, with his
mouth watering at such a tale of loot, would be inexpressibly
shocked. The “lewd French” must have done this, or the “pernicious
Dutch,” but not our woolly lambs—our innocent mariners.
The buccaneers of the West Indies were of many nations
besides the British, and they were not quite pirates. For instance,
they would scorn to seize a good Protestant shipload of salt fish, but
always attacked the papist who flaunted golden galleons before the
nose of the poor. They were serious-minded Protestants with strong
views on doctrine, and only made their pious excursions to seize the
goods of the unrighteous. Their opinions were so sound on all really
important points of dogmatic theology that they could allow
themselves a little indulgence in mere rape, sacrilege, arson, robbery
and murder, or fry Spaniards in olive oil for concealing the cash box.
Then, enriched by such pious exercises, they devoutly spent the
whole of their savings on staying drunk for a month.
The first buccaneers sallied out in a small boat and captured a
war-ship. From such small beginnings arose a pirate fleet, which,
under various leaders, French, Dutch, Portuguese, became a
scourge to the Spanish empire overseas. When they had wiped out
Spain’s merchant shipping and were short of plunder, they attacked
fortified cities, held them to ransom, and burned them for fun, then in
chase of the fugitive citizens, put whole colonies to an end by sword
and fire.
Naturally only the choicest scoundrels rose to captaincies, and
the worst of the lot became admiral. It should thrill the souls of all
Welshmen to learn that Henry Morgan gained that bad eminence. He
had risen to the command of five hundred cutthroats when he
pounced down on Maracaibo Bay in Venezuela. At the entrance
stood Fort San Carlos, the place which has lately resisted the attack
of a German squadron. Morgan was made of sterner stuff than these
Germans, for when the garrison saw him coming, they took to the
woods, leaving behind them a lighted fuse at the door of the
magazine. Captain Morgan grabbed that fuse himself in time to save
his men from a disagreeable hereafter.
Beyond its narrow entrance at Fort San Carlos, the inlet widens
to an inland sea, surrounded in those days by Spanish settlements,
with the two cities of Gibraltar and Maracaibo. Morgan sacked these
towns and chased their flying inhabitants into the mountains. His
prisoners, even women and children, were tortured on the rack until
they revealed all that they knew of hidden money, and some were
burned by inches, starved to death, or crucified.
These pleasures had been continued for five weeks, when a
squadron of three heavy war-ships arrived from Spain, and blocked
the pirates’ only line of retreat to the sea at Fort San Carlos. Morgan
prepared a fire ship, with which he grappled and burned the Spanish
admiral. The second ship was wrecked, the third captured by the
pirates, and the sailors of the whole squadron were butchered while
they drowned. Still Fort San Carlos, now bristling with new guns, had
to be dealt with before the pirates could make their escape to the
sea. Morgan pretended to attack from the land, so that all the guns
were shifted to that side of the fort ready to wipe out his forces. This
being done, he got his men on board, and sailed through the channel
in perfect safety.

Sir Henry Morgan


And yet attacks upon such places as Maracaibo were mere
trifling, for the Spaniards held all the wealth of their golden Indies at
Panama. This gorgeous city was on the Pacific Ocean, and to reach
it, one must cross the Isthmus of Darien by the route in later times of
the Panama railway and the Panama Canal, through the most
unwholesome swamps, where to sleep at night in the open was
almost sure death from fever. Moreover, the landing place at
Chagres was covered by a strong fortress, the route was swarming
with Spanish troops and wild savages in their pay, and their
destination was a walled city esteemed impregnable.
By way of preparing for his raid, Morgan sent four hundred men
who stormed the castle of Chagres, compelling the wretched
garrison to jump off a cliff to destruction. The English flag shone from
the citadel when Morgan’s fleet arrived. The captain landed one
thousand two hundred men and set off up the Chagres River with
five boats loaded with artillery, thirty-two canoes and no food. This
was a mistake, because the Spaniards had cleared the whole
isthmus, driving off the cattle, rooting out the crops, carting away the
grain, burning every roof, and leaving nothing for the pirates to live
on except the microbes of fever. As the pirates advanced they
retreated, luring them on day by day into the heart of the wilderness.
The pirates broiled and ate their sea boots, their bandoleers, and
certain leather bags. The river being foul with fallen timber, they took
to marching. On the sixth day they found a barn full of maize and ate
it up, but only on the ninth day had they a decent meal, when,
sweating, gasping and swearing, they pounced upon a herd of asses
and cows, and fell to roasting flesh on the points of their swords.
On the tenth day they debouched upon a plain before the City of
Panama, where the governor awaited with his troops. There were
two squadrons of cavalry and four regiments of foot, besides guns,
and the pirates heartily wished themselves at home with their
mothers. Happily the Spanish governor was too sly, for he had
prepared a herd of wild bulls with Indian herders to drive into the
pirate ranks, which bulls, in sheer stupidity, rushed his own
battalions. Such bulls as tried to fly through the pirate lines were
readily shot down, but the rest brought dire confusion. Then began a
fierce battle, in which the Spaniards lost six hundred men before
they bolted. Afterward through a fearful storm of fire from great
artillery, the pirates stormed the city and took possession.
Of course, by this time, the rich galleons had made away to sea
with their treasure, and the citizens had carried off everything worth
moving, to the woods. Moreover, the pirates were hasty in burning
the town, so that the treasures which had been buried in wells or
cellars were lost beyond all finding. During four weeks, this splendid
capital of the Indies burned, while the people hid in the woods; and
the pirates tortured everybody they could lay hands on with fiendish
cruelty. Morgan himself, caught a beautiful lady and threw her into a
cellar full of filth because she would not love him. Even in their
retreat to the Atlantic, the pirates carried off six hundred prisoners,
who rent the air with their lamentations, and were not even fed until
their ransoms arrived.
Before reaching Chagres, Morgan had every pirate stripped to
make sure that all loot was fairly divided. The common pirates were
bitterly offended at the dividend of only two hundred pieces of eight
per man, but Morgan stole the bulk of the plunder for himself, and
returned a millionaire to Jamaica.
Charles II knighted him and made him governor of Jamaica as a
reward for robbing the Spaniards. Afterwards his majesty changed
his mind, and Morgan died a prisoner in the tower of London as a
punishment for the very crime which had been rewarded with a title
and a vice-royalty.
XXXVII
A. D. 1682
THE VOYAGEURS

THIS chapter must begin with a very queer tale of rivers as


adventurers exploring for new channels.
Millions of years ago the inland seas—Superior, Michigan and
Huron—had their overflow down the Ottawa Valley, reaching the
Saint Lawrence at the Island of Montreal.
But, when the glaciers of the great ice age blocked the Ottawa
Valley, the three seas had to find another outlet, so they made a
channel through the Chicago River, down the Des Plaines, and the
Illinois, into the Mississippi.
And when the glaciers made, across that channel, an
embankment which is now the town site of Chicago, the three seas
had to explore for a new outlet. So they filled the basin of Lake Erie,
and poured over the edge of Queenstown Heights into Lake Ontario.
The Iroquois called that fall the “Thunder of Waters,” which in their
language is Niagara.
All the vast region which was flooded by the ice-field of the great
ice age became a forest, and every river turned by the ice out of its
ancient channel became a string of lakes and waterfalls. This
beautiful wilderness was the scene of tremendous adventures,
where the red Indians fought the white men, and the English fought
the French, and the Americans fought the Canadians, until the
continent was cut into equal halves, and there was peace.
Now let us see what manner of men were the Indians. At the
summit of that age of glory—the sixteenth century—the world was
ruled by the despot Akbar the Magnificent at Delhi, the despot Ivan
the Terrible at Moscow, the despot Phillip II at Madrid, and a little
lady despot, Elizabeth of the sea.
Yet at that time the people in the Saint Lawrence Valley, the
Mohawks, Oneidas, Senecas, Cayugas and, in the middle, the
Onondagas, were free republics with female suffrage and women as
members of parliament. Moreover the president of the Onondagas,
Hiawatha, formed these five nations into the federal republic of the
Iroquois, and they admitted the Tuscaroras into that United States
which was created to put an end to war. In the art of government we
have not yet caught up with the Iroquois.
They were farmers, with rich fisheries, had comfortable houses,
and fortified towns. In color they were like outdoor Spaniards, a tall,
very handsome race, and every bit as able as the whites. Given
horses, hard metals for their tools, and some channel or mountain
range to keep off savage raiders, and they might well have become
more civilized than the French, with fleets to attack old Europe, and
missionaries to teach us their religion.
Their first visitor from Europe was Jacques Cartier and they gave
him a hearty welcome at Quebec. When his men were dying of
scurvy an Indian doctor cured them. But to show his gratitude Cartier
kidnaped the five principal chiefs, and ever after that, with very brief
intervals, the French had reason to fear the Iroquois. Like many
another Indian nation, driven away from its farms and fisheries, the
six nation republic lapsed to savagery, lived by hunting and robbery,
ravaged the white men’s settlements and the neighbor tribes for
food, outraged and scalped the dead, burned or even ate their
prisoners.
The French colonies were rather over-governed. There was too
much parson and a great deal too much squire to suit the average
peasant, so all the best of the men took to the fur trade. They wore
the Indian dress of long fringed deerskin, coon cap, embroidered
moccasins, and a French sash like a rainbow. They lived like
Indians, married among the tribes, fought in their wars; lawless, gay,
gallant, fierce adventurers, the voyageurs of the rivers, the runners
of the woods.
With them went monks into the wilderness, heroic, saintly Jesuits
and Franciscans, and some of the quaintest rogues in holy orders.
And there were gentlemen, reckless explorers, seeking a way to
China. Of this breed came La Salle, whose folk were merchant-
princes at Rouen, and himself pupil and enemy of the Jesuits. At the
time of the plague and burning of London he founded a little
settlement on the island of Mount Royal, just by the head of the
Rapids. His dream was the opening of trade with China by way of
the western rivers, so the colonists, chaffing him, gave the name La
Chine to his settlement and the rapids. To-day the railway trains
come swirling by, with loads of tea from China to ship from Montreal,
but not to France.
During La Salle’s first five years in the wilderness he discovered
the Ohio and the Illinois, two of the head waters of the Mississippi.
The Indians told him of that big river, supposed to be the way to the
Pacific. A year later the trader Joliet, and the Jesuit Saint Marquette
descended the Mississippi as far as the Arkansas. So La Salle
dreamed of a French empire in the west, shutting the English
between the Appalachians and the Atlantic, with a base at the mouth
of the Mississippi for raiding the Spanish Indies, and a trade route
across the western sea to China. All this he told to Count Frontenac,
the new governor general, a man of business who saw the worth of
the adventure. Frontenac sent La Salle to talk peace with the
Iroquois, while he himself founded Fort Frontenac at the outlet of
Lake Ontario. From here he cut the trade routes of the west, so that
no furs would ever reach the French traders of Montreal or the
English of New York. The governor had not come to Canada for his
health.
La Salle was penniless, but his mind went far beyond this petty
trading; he charmed away the dangers from hostile tribes; his heroic
record won him help from France. Within a year he began his
adventure of the Mississippi by buying out Fort Frontenac as his
base camp. Here he built a ship, and though she was wrecked he
saved stores enough to cross the Niagara heights, and build a
second vessel on Lake Erie. With the Griffin he came to the meeting
place of the three upper seas—Machilli-Mackinac—the Jesuit
headquarters. Being a good-natured man bearing no malice, it was
with a certain pomp of drums, flags and guns that he saluted the fort,
quite forgetting that he came as a trespasser into the Jesuit mission.
A Jesuit in those days was a person with a halo at one end and a tail
at the other, a saint with modest black draperies to hide cloven
hoofs, who would fast all the week, and poison a guest on Saturday,
who sought the glory of martyrdom not always for the faith, but
sometimes to serve a devilish wicked political secret society. Leaving
the Jesuit mission an enemy in his rear, La Salle built a fort at the
southern end of Lake Michigan, sent off his ship for supplies, and
entered the unknown wilderness. As winter closed down he came
with thirty-three men in eight birchbark canoes to the Illinois nation
on the river Illinois.
Meanwhile the Jesuits sent Indian messengers to raise the
Illinois tribes for war against La Salle, to kill him by poison, and to
persuade his men to desert. La Salle put a rising of the Illinois to
shame, ate three dishes of poison without impairing his very sound
digestion, and made his men too busy for revolt; building Fort
Brokenheart, and a third ship for the voyage down the Mississippi to
the Spanish Indies.
Then came the second storm of trouble, news that his relief ship
from France was cast away, his fort at Frontenac was seized for
debt, and his supply vessel on the upper lakes was lost. He must go
to Canada.
The third storm was still to come, the revenge of the English for
the cutting of their fur trade at Fort Frontenac. They armed five
hundred Iroquois to massacre the Illinois who had befriended him in
the wilderness.
Robert Cavalier de la Salle

At Fort Brokenheart La Salle had a valiant priest named


Hennepin, a disloyal rogue and a quite notable liar. With two
voyageurs Pere Hennepin was sent to explore the river down to the
Mississippi, and there the three Frenchmen were captured by the
Sioux. Their captors took them by canoe up the Mississippi to the
Falls of Saint Anthony, so named by Hennepin. Thence they were
driven afoot to the winter villages of the tribe. The poor unholy father
being slow afoot, they mended his pace by setting the prairie afire
behind him. Likewise they anointed him with wildcat fat to give him
the agility of that animal. Still he was never popular, and in the end
the three wanderers were turned loose. Many were their vagabond
adventures before they met the explorer Greysolon Du Luth, who
took them back with him to Canada. They left La Salle to his fate.
Meanwhile La Salle set out from Fort Brokenheart in March,
attended by a Mohegan hunter who loved him, and by four gallant
Frenchmen. Their journey was a miracle of courage across the
unexplored woods to Lake Erie, and on to Frontenac. There La Salle
heard that the moment his back was turned his garrison had looted
and burned Fort Brokenheart; but he caught these deserters as they
attempted to pass Fort Frontenac, and left them there in irons.
Every man has power to make of his mind an empire or a desert.
At this time Louis the Great was master of Europe, La Salle a broken
adventurer, but it was the king’s mind which was a desert, compared
with the imperial brain of this haughty, silent, manful pioneer. The
creditors forgot that he owed them money, the governor caught fire
from his enthusiasm, and La Salle went back equipped for his
gigantic venture in the west.
The officer he had left in charge at Fort Brokenheart was an
Italian gentleman by the name of Tonty, son of the man who invented
the tontine life insurance. He was a veteran soldier whose left hand,
blown off, had been replaced with an iron fist, which the Indians
found to be strong medicine. One clout on the head sufficed for the
fiercest warrior. When his garrison sacked the fort and bolted, he had
two fighting men left, and a brace of priests. They all sought refuge
in the camp of the Illinois.
Presently this pack of curs had news that La Salle was leading
an army of Iroquois to their destruction, so instead of preparing for
defense they proposed to murder Tonty and his Frenchmen, until the
magic of his iron fist quite altered their point of view. Sure enough
the Iroquois arrived in force, and the cur pack, three times as strong,
went out to fight. Then through the midst of the battle Tonty walked
into the enemy’s lines. He ordered the Iroquois to go home and
behave themselves, and told such fairy tales about the strength of
his curs that these ferocious warriors were frightened. Back walked
Tonty to find his cur pack on their knees in tears of gratitude. Again
he went to the Iroquois, this time with stiff terms if they wanted
peace, but an Illinois envoy gave his game away, with such
extravagant bribes and pleas for mercy that the Iroquois laughed at
Tonty. They burned the Illinois town, dug up their graveyard, chased
the flying nation, butchered the abandoned women and children, and
hunted the cur pack across the Mississippi. Tonty and his
Frenchmen made their way to their nearest friends, the
Pottawattomies, to await La Salle’s return.
And La Salle returned. He found the Illinois town in ashes,
littered with human bones. He found an island of the river where
women and children by hundreds had been outraged, tortured and
burned. His fort was a weed-grown ruin. In all the length of the valley
there was no vestige of human life, or any clue as to the fate of Tonty
and his men. For the third time La Salle made that immense journey
to the settlements, wrung blood from stones to equip an expedition,
and coming to Lake Michigan rallied the whole of the native tribes in
one strong league, a red Indian colony with himself as chief, for
defense from the Iroquois. The scattered Illinois returned to their
abandoned homes, tribes came from far and wide to join the colony
and in the midst, upon Starved Rock, La Salle built Fort Saint Louis
as their stronghold. When Tonty joined him, for once this iron man
showed he had a heart.
So, after all, La Salle led an expedition down the whole length of
the Mississippi. He won the friendship of every tribe he met, bound
them to French allegiance, and at the end erected the standard of
France on the shores of the Gulf of Mexico. “In the name of the most
high, mighty, invincible and victorious Prince, Louis the Great, by the
Grace of God, King of France and of Navarre,” on the nineteenth of
April, 1682. La Salle annexed the valley of the Mississippi from the
Rocky Mountains to the Appalachians, from the lakes to the gulf, and
named that empire Louisiana.
As to the fate of this great explorer, murdered in the wilderness
by followers he disdained to treat as comrades, “his enemies were
more in earnest than his friends.”
XXXVIII
A. D. 1741
THE EXPLORERS

FROM the time of Henry VII of England down to the present day, the
nations of Europe have been busy with one enormous adventure,
the search for the best trade route to India and the China seas. For
four whole centuries this quest for a trade route has been the main
current of the history of the world. Look what the nations have done
in that long fight for trade.
Portugal found the sea route by Magellan’s Strait, and occupied
Brazil; the Cape route, and colonized the coasts of Africa. She built
an empire.
Spain mistook the West Indies for the real Indies, and the red
men for the real Indians, found the Panama route, and occupied the
new world from Cape Horn up to the southern edge of Alaska. She
built an empire.
France, in the search of a route across North America, occupied
Canada and the Mississippi Valley. She built an empire. That lost,
she attempted under Napoleon to occupy Egypt, Palestine and the
whole overland road to India. That failing, she has dug the Suez
Canal and attempted the Panama, both sea routes to the Indies.
Holland, searching for a route across North America, found
Hudson’s Bay and occupied Hudson River (New York). On the South
Sea route she built her rich empire in the East Indian Islands.
Britain, searching eastward first, opened up Russia to
civilization, then explored the sea passage north of Asia. Searching
westward, she settled Newfoundland, founded the United States,
built Canada, which created the Canadian Pacific route to the Indies,
and traversed the sea passage north of America. On the Panama
route, she built a West Indian empire; on the Mediterranean route,
her fortress line of Gibraltar, Malta, Cyprus, Egypt, Adon. By holding
all routes, she holds her Indian empire. Is not this the history of the
world?
But there remains to be told the story of Russia’s search for
routes to India and China. That story begins with Martha Rabe, the
Swedish nursery governess, who married a dragoon, left him to be
mistress of a Russian general, became servant to the Princess
Menchikoff, next the lover, then the wife of Peter the Great, and
finally succeeded him as empress of all the Russias. To the dazzling
court of this Empress Catherine came learned men and travelers
who talked about the search of all the nations for a route through
North America to the Indies. Long ago, they said, an old Greek
mariner, one Juan de Fuca, had bragged on the quays of Venice, of
his voyages. He claimed to have rounded Cape Horn, and thence
beat up the west coast of America, until he came far north to a strait
which entered the land. Through this sea channel he had sailed for
many weeks, until it brought him out again into the ocean. One
glance at the map will show these straits of Juan de Fuca, and how
the old Greek, sailing for many weeks, came out again into the
ocean, having rounded the back of Vancouver’s Island. But the
legend as told to Catherine the Great of Russia, made these
mysterious straits of Anian lead from the Pacific right across North
America to the Atlantic Ocean. Here was a sea route from Russia
across the Atlantic, across North America, across the Pacific, direct
to the gorgeous Indies. With such a possession as this channel
Russia could dominate the world.
Catherine set her soothsayers and wiseacres to make a chart,
displaying these straits of Anian which Juan de Fuca had found, and
they marked the place accordingly at forty-eight degrees of north
latitude on the west coast of America. But there were also rumors
and legends in those days of a great land beyond the uttermost
coasts of Siberia, an island that was called Aliaska, filling the North
Pacific. All such legends and rumors the astrologers marked
faithfully upon their map until the thing was of no more use than a
dose of smallpox. Then Catherine gave the precious chart to two of
her naval officers, Vitus Bering, the Dane—a mighty man in the late
wars with Sweden and a Russian lieutenant—Tschirikoff—and bade
them go find the straits of Anian.
The expedition set out overland across the Russian and Siberian
plains, attended by hunters who kept the people alive on fish and
game until they reached the coasts of the North Pacific. There they
built two ships, the Stv Petr and the Stv Pavl, and launched them,
two years from the time of their outsetting from Saint Petersburg.
Thirteen years they spent in exploring the Siberian coast, northward
to the Arctic, southward to the borders of China, then in 1741 set out
into the unknown to search for the Island of Aliaska, and the Straits
of Anian so plainly marked upon their chart.
Long months they cruised about in quest of that island, finding
nothing, while the crews sickened of scurvy, and man after man died
in misery, until only a few were left.
The world had not been laid out correctly, but Bering held with
fervor to his faith in that official chart for which his men were dying.
At last Tschirikoff, unable to bear it any longer, deserted Bering, and
sailing eastward many days, came at last to land at the mouth of
Cross Straits in Southern Alaska.
Beyond a rocky foreshore and white surf, forests of pine went up
to mountains lost in trailing clouds. Behind a little point rose a film of
smoke from some savage camp-fire. Tschirikoff landed a boat’s crew
in search of provisions and water, which vanished behind the point
and was seen no more. Heart-sick, he sent a second boat, which
vanished behind the point and was seen no more, but the fire of the
savages blazed high. Two days he waited, watching that pillar of
smoke, and listened to a far-off muttering of drums, then with the
despairing remnant of his crew, turned back to the lesser perils of the
sea, and fled to Siberia. Farther to the northward, some three
hundred miles, was Bering in the Stv Petr, driving his mutinous
people in a last search for land. It was the day after Tschirikoff’s
discovery, and the ship, flying winged out before the southwest wind,
came to green shallows of the sea, and fogs that lay in violet gloom
ahead, like some mysterious coast crowned with white cloud heights
towering up the sky. At sunset, when these clouds had changed to
flame color, they parted, suddenly revealing high above the
mastheads the most tremendous mountain in the world. The sailors
were terrified, and Bering, called suddenly to the tall after-castle of
the ship, went down on his knees in awestruck wonder. By the
Russian calendar, the day was that of the dread Elijah, who had
been taken up from the earth drawn by winged horses of flame in a
chariot of fire, and to these lost mariners it seemed that this was no
mere mountain of ice walls glowing rose and azure through a rift of
the purple clouds, but a vision of the translation of the prophet.
Bering named the mountain Saint Elias.
There is no space here for the detail of Bering’s wanderings
thereafter through those bewildering labyrinths of islands which skirt
the Alps of Saint Elias westward, and reach out as the Aleutian
Archipelago the whole way across the Pacific Ocean. The region is
an awful sub-arctic wilderness of rock-set gaps between bleak arctic
islands crowned by flaming volcanoes, lost in eternal fog. It has been
my fate to see the wonders and the terrors of that coast, which
Bering’s seamen mistook for the vestibule of the infernal regions.
Scurvy and hunger made them more like ghosts of the condemned
than living men, until their nightmare voyage ended in wreck on the
last of the islands, within two hundred miles of the Siberian coast.
Stellar, the German naturalist, who survived the winter, has left
record of Bering laid between two rocks for shelter, where the sand
drift covered his legs and kept him warm through the last days, then
made him a grave afterward. The island was frequented by sea-
cows, creatures until then unknown, and since wholly extinct,
Stellar’s being the only account of them. There were thousands of
sea otter, another species that will soon become extinct, and the
shipwrecked men had plenty of wild meat to feed on while they
passed the winter building from the timbers of the wreck, a boat to
carry them home. In the spring they sailed with a load of sea-otter
skins and gained the Chinese coast, where their cargo fetched a
fortune for all hands, the furs being valued for the official robes of
mandarins.
At the news of this new trade in sea-otter skins, the hunters of
Siberia went wild with excitement, so that the survivors of Bering’s
crew led expeditions of their own to Alaska. By them a colony was
founded, and though the Straits of Anian were never discovered,
because they did not exist, the czars added to their dominions a new
empire called Russian America. This Alaska was sold in 1867 to the
United States for one million, five hundred thousand pounds, enough
money to build such a work as London Bridge, and the territory
yields more than that by far in annual profits from fisheries, timber
and gold.
XXXIX
A. D. 1750
THE PIRATES

THERE are very few pirates left. The Riff Moors of Gibraltar Straits
will grab a wind-bound ship when they get the chance; the Arabs of
the Red Sea take stranded steamers; Chinese practitioners shipped
as passengers on a liner, will rise in the night, cut throats, and steal
the vessel; moreover some little retail business is done by the
Malays round Singapore, but trade as a whole is slack, and sea
thieves are apt to get themselves disliked by the British gunboats.
This is a respectable world, my masters, but it is getting dull.
It was very different in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries
when the Sallee rovers, the Algerian corsairs, buccaneers of the
West Indies, the Malays and the Chinese put pirate fleets to sea to
prey on great commerce, when Blackbeard, Captain Kidd,
Bartholomew, Roberts, Lafitte, Avery and a hundred other corsairs
under the Jolly Roger could seize tall ships and make their unwilling
seamen walk the plank. They and their merry men went mostly to the
gallows, richly deserved the same, and yet—well, nobody need
complain that times were dull.
There were so many pirates one hardly knows which to deal
with, but Avery was such a mean rogue, and there is such a nice
confused story—well, here goes! He was mate of the ship Duke,
forty-four guns, a merchant cruiser chartered from Bristol for the
Spanish service. His skipper was mightily addicted to punch, and too
drunk to object when Avery, conspiring with the men, made bold to
seize the ship. Then he went down-stairs to wake the captain, who,
in a sudden fright, asked, “What’s the matter?” “Oh, nothing,” said
Avery. The skipper gobbled at him, “But something’s the matter,” he
cried. “Does she drive? What weather is it?” “No, no,” answered
Avery, “we’re at sea.” “At sea! How can that be?”
“Come,” says Avery, “don’t be in a fright, but put on your clothes,
and I’ll let you into the secret—and if you’ll turn sober and mind your
business perhaps, in time, I may make you one of my lieutenants, if
not, here’s a boat alongside, and you shall be set ashore.” The
skipper, still in a fright, was set ashore, together with such of the men
as were honest. Then Avery sailed away to seek his fortune.
On the coast of Madagascar, lying in a bay, two sloops were
found, whose seamen supposed the Duke to be a ship of war and
being rogues, having stolen these vessels to go pirating, they fled
with rueful faces into the woods. Of course they were frightfully
pleased when they found out that they were not going to be hanged
just yet, and delighted when Captain Avery asked them to sail in his
company. They could fly at big game now, with this big ship for a
consort.
Now, as it happened, the Great Mogul, emperor of Hindustan,
was sending his daughter with a splendid retinue to make pilgrimage
to Mecca and worship at the holy places of Mahomet. The lady
sailed in a ship with chests of gold to pay the expenses of the
journey, golden vessels for the table, gifts for the shrines, an escort
of princes covered with jewels, troops, servants, slaves and a band
to play tunes with no music, after the eastern manner. And it was
their serious misfortune to meet with Captain Avery outside the
mouth of the Indus. Avery’s sloops, being very swift, got the prize,
and stripped her of everything worth taking, before they let her go.
It shocked Avery to think of all that treasure in the sloops where
it might get lost; so presently, as they sailed in consort, he invited the
captains of the sloops to use the big ship as their strong room. They
put their treasure on board the Duke, and watched close, for fear of
accidents. Then came a dark night when Captain Avery mislaid both
sloops, and bolted with all the plunder, leaving two crews of simple
mariners to wonder where he had gone.

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