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Full Ebook of Sales and Business Models in The Logistics Industry 1St Edition Alexander Nowroth Online PDF All Chapter
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Alexander Nowroth
Sales and
Business Models
in the Logistics
Industry
Ensuring Growth with Innovative
Strategies
Sales and Business Models in the
Logistics Industry
Alexander Nowroth
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Fachme-
dien Wiesbaden GmbH, part of Springer Nature 2023
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This book is a novelty. For the first time, the currently prevailing unhealthy
balance of power in shipping is so clearly brought to the fore, namely the one
between the shipping companies and the forwarders. The disruption caused by
the shipping companies and its consequences for customers, the supply chain and
the healthy middle are not only shown in this book, but also questioned, and the
effects on the end customer are set out. The current situation affects large and
small companies and threatens to destroy the entrepreneurial middle class, an
essential part of the economy.
And for another reason this book is a novelty: It deals constructively with
sales in the logistics industry. Since there is almost no literature on sales in
logistics, this area has hardly developed professionally and is often still very
traditional. Alexander Nowroth's book finally creates the basis to take the next
step—and he takes this step himself in practice.
The importance of cooperation between the various stakeholders is empha-
sized in the different chapters of the book, because in today's world it is of great
importance to create and maintain togetherness in order to be able to move for-
ward progressively. The necessary communication and cooperation challenges
each individual team member up to the willingness to take on responsibility
themselves. Appropriate self-motivation, a concrete goal in mind and the assump-
tion of responsibility are an incredibly strong driver for any company. This
applies to the operational area as well as to sales.
Whether the collaboration takes place in the logistics chain between custom-
ers, forwarders and carriers or in sales between the hierarchical levels and teams:
It is and remains the basis for good cooperation and communication. This is made
clear by Alexander Nowroth and questions old structures in which performance is
often not considered objectively or, worse still, only measured in terms of profit-
ability.
VII
VIII Foreword
This book calls for questioning what has become established and regularly
leads the reader onto the path of “continuous improvement”. This and the various
models that Alexander Nowroth shows support the reader in the task of question-
ing his strategy and business model and adapting them to the current situation.
With this book, Alexander Nowroth also provides suggestions for innovation
and progressive progress, which is admittedly a rocky path, but one that must
definitely be taken. However, you don't have to go it alone, because the author
accompanies you with his knowledge and ideas and gives you various kinds of
assistance in your undertaking.
I wish all readers a lot of enjoyment and I am sure that you will smile from
time to time because you have caught yourself or your organization in the wrong
corner for the second, third or even fourth time.
Many thanks, Alexander, for the insights, your constructive criticism and
above all your ideas that you share with us – and not least for the constructive
collaboration.
The year 2021, in which I began writing this book, will go down in history as the
most extraordinary since the invention of the container in 1956. So many black
swans1were sighted that their number may have exceeded that of the white ones:
just to name a few, the blockade of the Suez Canal by a stranded container ship
and the outbreak of the Corona virus in various Chinese port cities. Explosive,
never considered possible rate increases of up to 1000% led to the fact that the
shipping companies worldwide accumulated a profit of more than 100 billion
dollars in 2021 and 2022. Never before seen capacity bottlenecks in almost all
modalities (in particular containers) and an unending burden on the supply chain
led to a massive strain on all stakeholders involved in logistics. Just before com-
pletion of the original German version of the book in early 2022, the military
conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, shaking us all to the core because
of the human suffering it caused. The conflict led to unprecedented sanctions,
which isolated Russia from most of the world's countries. Shipping companies
stopped calling at Russian ports within a very short time, the Trans-Siberian Rail-
way was avoided by many companies and leading forwarders, thus pouring more
water into an already overflowing barrel.
And somewhere in between the front lines of these disruptive developments is
sales. I call sales a “temporary” giant because in 2021 and 2022 you didn't have
to be particularly good to be incredibly successful. After all, all that mattered was
that the logistics companies had freight capacity. If this capacity existed, it was
easy for them to bring it to the insatiable market.
1A black swan is an event that is completely unlikely, completely unexpected, and (almost)
everyone is amazed.
IX
X Preface
You are probably wondering why I wrote this book at a time when many com-
panies were benefitting from the incredible revenue growth and the profits they
had made. The reason why I am writing this book now is, on the one hand, to
examine how the role of sales has changed so rapidly and deeply in such a short
time. Plus, how organisations can safeguard themselves with much more robust
volume growth against the inevitable future big rate decreases. On the other hand,
it is my goal to support organisations in the transition of sales to a hybrid organi-
zational model. Sales is no longer just the front line where solid sales and margin
growth should be ensured. Rather, the sales organization today decisively deter-
mines how innovative a company is and will be in the next few years, because
sales is the first and much earlier than all other departments to notice the game-
changing changes – for example, with regard to customer needs. This is partly
due to the fact that sales enjoys a high degree of trust with its existing custom-
ers. If such a trust relationship exists, we are honest with each other and provide
information that can be of considerable importance with regard to innovations, for
example, and which must be communicated internally into product development.
However, my practice shows that in many cases, due to wrong incentives, out-
dated structures as well as excessive bureaucracy, sales often only inadequately or
not at all meets this role as an innovation driver.
With this book I also hope to close a gap in the professional literature.
Although there are hundreds of books that deal with the topic of sales, there is
none that primarily deals with strategic, transformative issues in logistics sales.
For many years I was successfully employed as a salesperson and sales manager
on different continents in the logistics industry. And from day one it was clear to
me that anyone who calls himself a salesman in the logistics industry is more of a
consultant than just a salesman in the traditional sense.
The job of the salesman is not over with the conclusion of a deal: Because
of the ever-faster innovation cycles, the rapid market changes and the constantly
changing customer needs, sales always has to have its finger on the pulse of the
customer. Day in and day out. They have to point their customers to solutions and
present them with ideas they have not thought of before. During my active time in
sales I went so far as to tell my customers: “My goal is to understand your busi-
ness better than my own.” And I meant it.
In 2016, I finally found my calling when I co-founded a consultancy to share
my expertise and knowledge with other companies, always with the goal of hav-
ing a greater, positive impact on the logistics industry, but also other service
driven industries. Meanwhile, I look back on dozens of successfully completed
projects and countless encounters with wonderful people.
Preface XI
XIII
XIV Contents
The traditional business model of the logistics industry and in particular of logis-
tics service providers is facing a disruption that has never been seen before. The
tension between the various service providers has never been more intense than
it is today. Shipping companies and forwarders are exemplary for this: They are
service providers in the classical sense. However, it is the case that the shipping
companies are also service providers for the forwarding companies, after all, as
asset owner they provide the forwarding companies with the transport capacities
for their containers. In parallel, the shipping companies also offer these capacities
to end customers, since they are not necessarily dependent on a forwarder, but can
also ship containers directly with a shipping company. This inevitably leads to a
conflict of interest.
involving a forwarder has always been that he can find the best logistical solu-
tion for the respective customer and maintain a certain independence in choosing
the service providers. However, this is now diluted by the fact that, for example,
more and more shipping companies are travelling together on certain routes with
so-called “Vessel Sharing Agreements”(VSAs). This is similar to a “light” cartel,
as there is no longer any real competition or it is at least severely restricted. The
competent regulatory authorities could oblige the companies by abolishing these
VSAs—similar to the conference ban of 2005. Whether this will happen remains
to be seen.
The only means available to carriers to counter this existential threat is the
anchoring of systemic capacity to innovate. Only by developing and offering
highly attractive, relevant products can a company secure a dominant position in
certain industries However, the biggest hurdle on the way there is not—as is often
assumed—the lack of innovation competence, but the unshakeable desire and the
understanding that despite current record profits, continuous innovation is indis-
pensable! Success makes you lazy, and such a resounding success as the logistics
industry is currently experiencing makes you complacent and even partially blind.
Let’s take a look at a family-run German logistics company that is part of my
customer base. For example, there is the managing director who is always busy
generating as much new business as possible, driven as he is by sales figures and
various profitability KPIs. Nobody in the company is concerned with the topic
of innovation as long as the good times continue, with the opportunity to make
more money than ever before. First of all, one is inclined to think of oneself and
of today and not of tomorrow. That is human, of course, but is anything other than
conducive to innovation. Innovation means thinking radically differently and at
the same time being open to the fact that one’s own business can move in a com-
pletely different direction.
Employees are at the end of their tether in terms of their workload and have no
headspace and even less free capacity remaining to deal with creative, experi-
mental activities. Every minute invested in innovation would be a “lost shipment”
for them. That’s roughly like not wanting to change the tires during a car race
because you’re afraid of losing the time you need to do it. However, the fact that
1.1 Trend 1: Disruption Causes Tension 5
you will gradually become slower with worn-out tires—which stand for an over-
loaded organization in this example—and thus lose the race in the medium term
is ignored.
Being innovative means consciously withdrawing from day-to-day business
and critically examining one’s own business both from a distance and up close.
The “Skunk Works” approach, which was invented for this very purpose, is
known from Silicon Valley (Pratt 2018). Here, a department is de facto hermeti-
cally sealed off from the rest of the company. This allows the employees assigned
to this “skunk” team to concentrate 100% on the development of innovations. If
you now think that this is not possible for you, that you cannot stop the relevant
employees and that you would rather leave the whole thing completely to exter-
nal consultants and other service providers, this can certainly work, but such an
approach entails the not inconsiderable risk that these external consultants will
not gain a deep insight into your business. Ideally, you should work with external
and internal employees together and give them the opportunity to think freely, to
nurture their ideas, possibly to reject them or to check their feasibility. Your motto
can therefore be:
Precisely because you are so successful, you can afford to take a step
back to take two or three steps forward in the long term through a
serious innovation approach and thus keep your competitors in
check.
It is not so important whether you now make 1.7 or 1.85 billion euros in sales—
especially for family-run companies—but it is all the more important what inno-
vative power you have and whether you also plan for the time that will inevitably
come after the current “high”: namely the crash into more normal realms. Always
keep in mind: the greater the party, the more severe the hangover!
By no means do I want to paint too black a picture, but I absolutely want to
shake you awake, because time and again in my daily work I experience that profit
and sales growth are blindly chased after as if there were nothing more substantial
for the success of the company. At the same time, many company owners swear
that they think fundamentally in the long term and by no means only from quarter
to quarter. However, too rapid growth is unhealthy; this applies not only to chil-
dren, but also to your entire organization. So you should make compromises. Such
a compromise can look like this: you make concessions in terms of sales and profit
growth because your colleagues are getting more and more tired due to excessive
overtime hours leading to more and more avoidable mistakes being made.
6 1 Upheaval in the Logistics and Sales World: Five Trends …
The developments described above show how little can be predicted nowadays
and that almost nothing seems impossible anymore. The only way to deal with
this uncertainty is to permanently adapt one’s own strategy and possibly also the
business model to the prevailing circumstances. Let us first deal with the topic of
strategy in times of stormy change.
This is a very difficult undertaking, as strategy is often confused with plan-
ning or, even worse, made into a kind of hybrid: the term “strategic planning”.
The term “strategic planning” is nothing more than an oxymoron, because strat-
egy is something entirely different from a plan. The development of a strategy
is a creative and highly emotional process, because with strategies one thinks in
future states. These must be imaginatively and therefore emotionally conceivable.
A plan, on the other hand, is nothing more than a mere concatenation of different
activities. The saying “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” in this context brings it
to the point:
It is a habit to always pour everything into plans. Creativity and innovation are
much too individual to be able to squeeze them into an Excel cell. But time and
again, various controlling guidelines and other bureaucratic instruments allow the
strategy process to degenerate into a planning process in most companies. The
creativity is left completely on the track.
It is by no means the case that plans make no sense. On the contrary: They are
important in order to be able to organize things or activities in a highly structured
way. Historically, plans used to have a very long horizon, often extending over
three or even five years. This may have worked many years ago, when the world
ticked much slower and the further development was easier to predict. In addi-
tion, plans are primarily designed for linear growth or linear development. How-
ever, they fail completely in the face of exponential change. And it is precisely
these developments that are now encountered much more frequently than linear
ones. Indeed, I would describe the developments since the financial crisis of 2008
as exponential and the years from 2010 as the exponential decade. Just think of
the global population growth, the increase in CO2 emissions, the rapid spread of
the Corona virus and the rapid growth of some highly innovative companies such
as Tesla or Amazon.
1.2 Trend 2: Exponentially Accelerated Change Requires Strategic … 7
Competition with
unprecedented disruptive
power and speed
More extremes than
equalies
Predicons and historical
values lose their validity
Number of things we
can't control
keeps increasing
Many entrepreneurial
processes are geared
towards linear growth
Figure 1.1 illustrates what happens when you “rest” on the linear line, that is,
when you notice a relevant exponential development too late. For example, if the
entry of a new competitor or the product launch of another competitor cuts your
own line, it is already much too late to catch up. You will simply be left behind.
The half-life of plans in 2023 is almost zero. For comparison: For my projects,
for example, we plan a maximum of two to four weeks in advance, even if the
entire project duration extends over six or twelve months. Otherwise, too much
can be overlooked on the sidelines, and you run the risk of running in the wrong
direction.
Thus, the “change has changed”, as Garry Hamel already noted a few years
ago (Hamel 2014). This requires that we finally stop wasting time with outdated
planning excesses, that is, no longer try to force the future into a corset that it
doesn’t fit into anyway, and that we accept living with a certain degree of fuzzi-
ness. Today, more than ever, the formula “progress beats perfection” applies. Or,
to put it another way: “The fast eat the slow.” It is high time to deal with other
control elements—also in sales.
8 1 Upheaval in the Logistics and Sales World: Five Trends …
The word “controlling” also includes the often negatively perceived term
“control”. I would like to focus in particular on the elimination of control ele-
ments, because, as we will see, the sales performance in many companies is
massively restricted by an almost excessive bureaucracy, which is absolutely
unnecessary or counterproductive.
The excessive efficiency gains of recent decades have led to enormous bureau-
cratic burdens, with which sales also have to struggle. Did you know that a sales-
person in the logistics industry spends on average only about five to six hours
per week with customer meetings (virtual or analog)? That’s not even 15% of his
working time. The reason for this is too high a burden with avoidable and to a
large extent sales-inhibiting tasks.
I distinguish three types of tasks that concern sales:
ACTIVITIES-
PLANNING &
ACCOUNTING REPORTING
MEETING CULTURE
Excessive
visit reports Frequency & NON-SALES
Necessity ACTIVITIES
Complicated
pipelines Duraon
Travel planning
Any manual Preparaon and Operaonal
Travel expense acvies follow-up acvies
report
Fig. 1.2 The four biggest bureaucracy monsters and sales inhibitors
approve this flight, even though they were responsible for a seven- or eight-digit
budget and disciplinary responsibility for hundreds of employees year after year.
Processes of this kind have one thing in common: They serve to unmask the
two to five percent black sheep who want to cheat the company, but they pun-
ish the 95 to 98% honest employees by condemning them to fill out forms, even
though they could use this time to generate revenue. The result: mediocrity and
service by the book.
In Fig. 1.2 the four biggest bureaucracy monsters are listed. Probably you will
recognize your own company here. We will mainly deal with this in Chap. 2 and 4.
Selling has become a “commodity” and is too static. This has led, amongst other
things, to the fact that most distribution organizations have become much too
large. On a scale of 1 to 10 (1 = very low, 10 = very high): How static is your
10 1 Upheaval in the Logistics and Sales World: Five Trends …
sales organisation? Take a look at all your new business deals from the last twelve
months: How many were analog (including Zoom/Teams) and how many were
digital, i.e. without you coming into contact with the customer face to face? I am
sure that your distribution is rather weakly digital and most of your deals are con-
cluded in an analog manner.
Due to Coronavirus, the average number of personal customer visits will
decrease in the long term. This is because customers simply had to get used to
the fact—whether they wanted to or not—that appointments took place digitally.
This way you could take more appointments per day and felt—subjectively—
more productive, even though the opposite was often the case: From one call
you rushed to the next, and the content and substance were often left behind in
personal conversations. This increases the importance of a personal appointment
all the more. This is especially true if the salesperson is able to achieve a higher
appointment density than the competition. Across all industries, it can be seen
that the salespeople with the highest number of appointments are among the most
successful in their field, in all quantitative categories! That is why it is essential to
focus on tasks that generate sales.
Everyone wants to become increasingly digital, including those who work in
sales, but they are still stuck with the idea that it is better to meet their customers
physically and to communicate with them face to face.
Despite all the programs and tools such as Zoom, Teams, Slack and the hardware
available today such as tablets and smartphones, digitalization in sales seems to
bounce off the personal beliefs of salespeople: The physical customer appoint-
ment plays an increasingly important role, the more it is threatened with extinc-
tion. Its supporters emphasize that trust can best be built up during a physical
encounter. If you don’t see each other at all or only digitally, they argue, trust-
building will be significantly more difficult and, as a result, the scope or size of
the deal will be substantially impaired. In addition, in times of crisis, people tend
to focus on what they already know and what they have had good experiences
with in the past. This presents another hurdle in the attempt to convince a cus-
tomer to switch service providers in an already difficult time.
On the other hand, proponents of digital distribution are of the opinion that
all this is old hat and outdated thinking, because thanks to their algorithms and
1.5 Trend 5: Closing Rates and “Hit Rates” Gain Importance 11
excellent data preparation, companies can very precisely articulate what they
want. This also explains the trend of recent years that more and more tenders are
taking place only online or partly in the so-called e-bidding process. The advan-
tage of this is that such a tender is much more cost-effective—for both sides:
Hardly any or no appointments have to be kept, communication takes place
exclusively by e-mail, and the input of rates or conditions creates an immediate
obligation.
I am convinced that for really important deals, personal exchange is essential.
However, I think that the number of customers who actually have to be visited in
person to be closed is massively overestimated by most salespeople and also sales
managers!
Most sales organizations stay far below their potential because they grossly over-
estimate their abilities, have no knowledge whatsoever regarding their “hit rate”,
and lack any discipline whatsoever. This is evidenced by the evaluations of doz-
ens of conversations with salespeople and their sales statistics. Let’s start with the
statistics and take a look at the success rate:
Assuming a success rate of 15% for tenders and large offers, this means that
success was not achieved in 85% of cases. To put it bluntly: time (working time)
and money (wages) were wasted. Some will now argue that this is part of the
nature of sales and that one simply has to accept misses if one wants to be suc-
cessful. The comparison with a striker in soccer is often made here, who finally
also records more misses on the opposing goal than goals. It is all the more
worthwhile to deal with techniques that increase the probability of success and
reduce the duration of the sales cycle. A success rate of 15% means a hit rate of
(100 / 15 = 6.7) that only about every seventh customer conversation is success-
ful (= success). Consequently, it must be the goal of the sales management to
increase the success rate as much as possible. Here are four tips from practice:
The problem is that—and this really affects all industries—90 to 95% (!) of sales-
people have no idea what their closing rate is, but they act on feeling at best. If it
doesn’t work out so well, you keep hearing the same excuses: reference is made
to a “difficult market situation”, “poor rates” and a “weak product support” or
generally to the fact that the current year is simply a “difficult year”. These are all
just tired excuses, because there are also salespeople and whole companies that
act and grow much faster and sustainably than their competitors.
Do the following thought experiment: Imagine you ask your sales team who,
in terms of their likelihood of closing, thinks they are better than the sales aver-
age. The overwhelming majority of those asked will raise their hand without
thinking twice. Then follow up with the question of who has already measured
their own likelihood of closing and knows the team’s average likelihood of clos-
ing.
If you ask the same question in relation to driving, then just under 80% (by the
way, mainly the male respondents) will report here as well. In other words, the
majority of your salespeople overestimate their abilities and thus also their own
closing rate. As a result, their sales pipelines are completely underdeveloped and
significantly below the level at which they should actually be. Worse still, most
salespeople do not even know what their closing rate and their hit rate are.
I experience this again and again when I ask salespeople for an assessment of
their closing rate in project workshops. After an initial assessment, I ask them to
check their estimates against the numbers from the last twelve months. Most of
them then open their eyes in disbelief, because the actual closing rate turns out
to be significantly lower than their estimate. This is also one of the main reasons
why the sales organization does not even work at cost in most companies. There
is no or only insufficient clarity about the closing rate and the hit rate.
Online tools such as freight calculators or tendering tools are much further
ahead in this respect, as they are incorruptible machines or computer programs.
The question now is: Is the static trade phasing itself out? The answer is a clear
no if you face the described activities resolutely. You do this as follows:
The hit rate is now obtained by dividing 100 by the completion probability.
The following is a calculation example:
b. Strength of Pipeline
As you now know, the hit rate is your multiplier for the amount of potential that
must be in your pipeline (or your team’s) in order to have any realistic chance of
achieving your sales target.
Exercise
As already described briefly above, ask the members of your team once to
assess themselves where their hit rate is and then show them a comparison
measurement with the “actual” data!
In addition, break down where the hit rate differs for different sales cat-
egories (e.g. sea freight or airfreight business).
If the new business target is one million euros and your probability of
success is 10%, this means that the pre-qualified potential must always be
10 million euros! This is real, realistic potential.
14 1 Upheaval in the Logistics and Sales World: Five Trends …
Your meetings should revolve around the changes in values and what you as a
team can do to improve the ratio of sales time to won deals.
It may be that in one or two quarters the hit rate deteriorates, for example for
sea freight. This means—provided you recognize this in time due to your regu-
lar measurement—that you can then counter with a campaign concerning other
products. You can measure this quite simply with your CRM system (Customer
Relationship Management System). If this is not possible, it is advisable to check
whether this function can be programmed or whether your CRM system should
be scrapped.
Two things that are related to the coronavirus crisis are extremely dangerous
for sales organizations in the logistics industry: On the one hand, you don’t even
have to be really good to sell successfully. Primarily, it is about capacities, and
those who have a strong product behind them can unload these capacities within
a very short time due to the exploding demand. Those who do not have these
capacities have almost no chance of being successful at least in sea freight. On
the other hand, the already mentioned exorbitant evolution of freight rates is to be
mentioned. This obscures the sense of how successful one actually is. The follow-
ing example illustrates this:
Example
Assuming you shipped 100 containers from the Far East to Europe for a cus-
tomer in 2020. Since you made 2000 euros in sales and 10% profit per con-
tainer, the sales were 200,000 euros and the profit was 20,000 euros. Even if
the volume of containers halved from 100 to 50, you still generated twice as
much sales and profit as the year before if the freight rates quadrupled and the
profit margin remained the same! ◄
1.5 Trend 5: Closing Rates and “Hit Rates” Gain Importance 15
In this context, a proverb comes to mind that says: “Give a man money and power
and find out his true character.” It is admittedly not easy to stay grounded with
the current freight rates and the profits being achieved, and it requires a certain
amount of humility to consistently look at the volume development (e.g. the num-
ber of 20 ft standard containers or the weight breakable by airfreight). This is a
question of constant reflection and questioning of one’s own status quo. The fol-
lowing questions will help you find the right answers:
The higher the rise, the deeper the fall. Is your team mentally pre-
pared for this?
Conclusion There will be a consolidation of freight rates one way or the other,
the question is only when this will be the case. On the one hand, the rates have
never been at such a high level, and on the other hand, rate volatility is as certain
as rain in Seattle. However, the level will be slightly higher than the starting level.
An old danger is always to see success as a constant. Therefore, it should be one
of your most important tasks to ground the sales in this respect.
In Chap. 2 we now turn to the most important business models in the logistics
industry and find out how we can create a future-oriented, resilient model for the
future.
References
Examples
In 2007, Nokia had a global market share of around 50% for mobile phones,
which was unimaginable at the time. Within the following six years, this share
fell to 3.5% (Lee 2013). The reason for this was that the Nokia managers were
looking back at the past successes and—instead of taking risks and being
brave to tackle the next innovation—they were disproportionately concerned
with the optimization of the past.
The same fate befell the company Quelle in Germany. Perhaps some may
will still remember the thick book-like catalogue that arrived by mail every
year and in which you could choose the things you liked. At the end of the
1990s, Quelle even had one of the world’s most powerful shipping manage-
ment systems (Demel and Birkenstock 2017), but it missed the jump into the
digital age and did not invest in its Internet presence in time. ◄
These examples show that a business model must be constantly adapted to both
market and customer needs in order for the relevant company to remain success-
2.1 Why a Good Business Model is Essential for Survival 19
ful in the future. This is especially true and particularly true for corporate lead-
ers who believe that their organization is an impregnable fortress. I remember the
CEO of a well-known airline who, at a large logistics congress in 2018, claimed
in his keynote speech that his company could not be “disrupted”. This may ini-
tially appear to be plausible, as an airline is extremely capital intensive. What the
good man probably considered to be the least “disruption risk” was the pandemic
that spread across the globe a little later, forcing his proud company to accept
billions of euros in state aid to avert bankruptcy. We see: The disruption of a busi-
ness model can take place in very different ways—not only on the part of the
competition, but also through external circumstances.
Thinking of a business model only from the perspective of competition is
no longer enough today. However, it is a very good beginning, because history
teaches us that companies that have been in the lead for a long time are hardly or
not at all concerned with new business models. Apple is a good example of the
opposite: With the bold iTunes Store at the time, the company created a really
clever new business model that also heralded the final end of the lucrative CD
sales of the established major record companies.
What must the Nokia managers have thought when the Apple people started
thinking about the smartphone in a completely new way in 2007? Not only with
a much larger screen, without any buttons and with a closed system (from which
it is so difficult for the customer to break out) as well as coupled with iTunes—
which in turn created a completely new business model!
What did the VW and BMW managers think when they learned about the
beginnings of Tesla and when Elon Musk announced that he would sell his vehi-
cles directly to end customers through so-called “Experience Stores”, which com-
pletely turned the dealer business model upside down? I remember very well the
Australia manager of one of the largest German supplier companies who four
years ago predicted a dark future for Tesla. So it is this feeling of security and
thinking from a size perspective that will eventually be the downfall.
So a good business model is up to date and does generate profits, but it is not
as fast in adapting to the respective circumstances as an excellent business model.
tage that they have to incur very high capital costs to create their offer (of the
same assets such as ships and planes), to operate them and to expand. Their
great advantage is that it is very difficult for their competitors to jeopardize
their business model—due to the high material and financial entry barriers.
• Category 2: Low capital intensity
These are companies that are less to moderately capital intensive, such as
freight forwarders, ship brokers or logistics real estate developers. Most of
these companies maintain their own or partly own fleets or a global office net-
work and have often been around for 30 to 50 years, in some cases for 100
years or more.
• Category 3: Start-ups/Post-Start-ups
These often copy the existing business model of Category 2, but due to the
high digitalization of the processes, they can realize this business model at
much lower costs. In addition, these companies operate highly automated, so
that a higher turnover per FTE (Full Time Employee) is possible and the man-
tra is not “More turnover = more employees”, but “More turnover = higher
scalability” and a dynamically increasing result per employee is achieved.
The business models of Category 2 are under the strongest pressure, as they are—
as already mentioned briefly—endangered by the technical component of Cate-
gory 3 and questioned in their existence by Category 1.
1000
800
600
400
200
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
This list could be continued indefinitely. The examples given may be very differ-
ent, but they share one important aspect: they are difficult or impossible to pre-
dict!
So how can it be possible to keep this development in check, for example
when it comes to the growing market share of an important competitor? The
only, in my opinion, effective recipe is the continuous rethinking, adaptation and
optimization of one’s own business model. Inseparably connected with it is the
innovative power, i.e. the creation of new products that prove themselves on the
market. For this you need a good portion of humility and the serious question-
ing of your own status quo. Probably the aforementioned companies Nokia and
Quelle did not have or did not do just that.
22 2 The Most Important Players and Business Models at a Glance
It seems to me that many companies have lost courage since the optimization
excesses of the 2000s, which were called all sorts of nice names like Six Sigma or
Kanban. The reason for this is as simple as it is dangerous: Due to the efficiency
gains through the permanent optimization of processes, at a certain point no one
dares to question a process or a product as such. The result: The products wear
out over time, meet increasingly less enthusiasm among customers, and new com-
petitors invent completely new products or business models.
Because large corporations have difficulty keeping up with exponential change
due to their wealth of processes and the resulting excessive bureaucracy, they set
up innovation hubs, so-called “accelerators” or “venture capital funds”, in order
to buy innovative creativity. This may be justified in some cases, for example to
develop new technologies, but all too often this is associated with the unrealis-
tic expectation or hope that this will change the entire company innovatively. As
a result, most “accelerator” programs fail or are discontinued after a very short
time. It would be better to systematically make the entire company agile, fast
and resilient against disruptive competition. The central core of this project is the
business model.
How do you know that you need to adjust your business model to the changed
circumstances or even need a completely new business model? The following
questions will help you find an answer:
• Have your main revenue drivers of the last five years stagnated or even
declined?
• Is the percentage of revenue from products that are less than three years old
less than 10%?
If you answer these questions with a yes, then it is high time to get to work! The
first step is therefore:
In order for the existing business model to be optimized at all, you need to take a
close look—and I really mean take a close look—at the needs of your customers.
The following questions will help here:
• How well do you know the existing and anticipated needs of your customers?
With the latter, it is important to clearly distinguish between what a customer
wants, and what she actually needs.
2.1 Why a Good Business Model is Essential for Survival 23
You must also deal with geopolitical developments that can affect your busi-
ness model, such as global pandemics or natural disasters. For this you need risk
management that not only assesses the risks regarding the current impact on the
company, but makes it clear how resilient the business model is against a similar
future crisis. I already mentioned the CEO of the aviation group who did not take
a pandemic into account in his remarks. Was this really one of the much-quoted
“black swans”, an unexpected or unlikely event? Not at all, because pandemics
have always existed in human history. The best known is the Black Death in the
fourteenth century. A less well-known but very deadly pandemic was the Spanish
flu, which raged all over the world a little over 100 years ago. But at that time the
world was in no way comparable to ours today in terms of globalization. As more
and more parts of the planet were settled and an exponentially increasing amount
of travel was recorded, but hardly any investments were made in a global pan-
demic early warning system, it was only a matter of time before something like
the Coronavirus pandemic occurred.
You may now object that one can always be always wiser after the fact. How-
ever, it must be countered that there were indeed voices that warned in good time
before such an event, including Bill Gates in a much-publicized speech from
2015 (TED 2015). In a style almost reminiscent of Orwell, this speech seems
almost ghostly realistic when you look at its wording today. Bill Gates predicted
that if something would kill several million people in the next few years, it would
be a pandemic and not a war. Nevertheless, the states had invested disproportion-
ately more in military armament than in an effective pandemic prevention sys-
tem. At that time, the Ebola virus raged in West Africa, and it remained a regional
event because the virus was not transmitted through the air and, secondly, the
often poor residents of West Africa were only able to travel internationally in
exceptional cases.
You can see from this that when revising and developing a business model,
you also need to deal with scenarios that may occur. If you imagine such scenar-
ios, you can compare them with the current business model and check how stable
this is against such events. Data-based tools like EIDOS® can help with this.
Let’s now take a look at the most common business models in the logistics
service industry and how scenarios can be developed to be as resilient as possible
for the future.
24 2 The Most Important Players and Business Models at a Glance
MARKET PART
Maersk 17%
Mediterranean Shg Co
(MSC) 15.9%
HAPAG-Lloyd 7.1%
ONE (Ocean
Network express) 6.5%
Zim 1.5%
On the other hand, there are forwarders and, as well as, companies that send con-
tainers to shipping companies without the help of forwarders. Forwarders could
not be more different to shipping companies in terms of their market position-
ing than they are currently: They are part of an extremely fragmented market in
which the top five account for less than 10% (!) of the world market. In addi-
tion, they are less capital-intensive, that is, not a single forwarder has a ship with
which he could cover the container transport volume attributable to himself.
Rather, the forwarders take on the role of a middleman, since they are positioned
between the customer and the shipping companies with regard to the mediation of
the transport volume. Their position is similar to that of an online platform for the
mediation of air travel, which is positioned between the airlines and the customer.
However, forwarders currently still offer a variety of services that some shipping
companies do not yet have in their portfolio (e.g. customs clearance, LCL and so-
called Buyer’s Consol). In order to close this portfolio gap, in particular the lead-
ing shipping companies have integrated a large number of traditional forwarders
into their respective companies in the past twelve months (see MAERSK with
Damco and CMA CGM with Ceva) and have acquired additional expertise (e.g.
customs clearance agents).
Another very important component in this market is the massively increased
demand for transport capacity from China, which is partly due to the fact that
people worldwide are increasingly doing their shopping online during the Cor-
onavirus pandemic. A significant proportion of the goods affected come from
China. So certainly part of the enormous increase in freight rates is due to the
sharply increased demand. But that’s not even half the truth!
26 2 The Most Important Players and Business Models at a Glance
In the first half of 2021, Maersk achieved a staggering net profit of $6.5 billion.
Estimates suggest that the container shipping industry will generate a net profit of
more than $100 billion for the first time in its history in 2021 (Holt 2021). Pretty
much the same can be said about 2022. This makes it possible to build up huge
cash reserves, with which new markets can be opened up and competitors can be
taken over excellently. This is what happened at Maersk: The Danish container
giant has taken over the Dutch KEP provider B2C (Maersk 2021b). Furthermore,
Maersk has acquired LF Logistics, an Asian logistics provider, for more than $3.6
billion (Gronholt-Pedersen and Jacobsen 2021).
The opposite—taking capacities out of the market—is, on the other hand,
possible in the short term and without any problems. This happened above all in
2020, when the share of so-called blank sailings amounted to 15% and was sig-
nificantly higher than in previous years (ShipInsight 2021).
In view of the good market situation, the question arises as to whether it is at
all possible to “disrupt” the business model or this unfolding unbreakable oligop-
oly of the shipping companies. Various scenarios are conceivable:
Now the oligopoly is experiencing good times without any end in sight. This has
not happened even during the conference times in the 1990s and 2000s: Then
whole areas of navigation were divided between the shipping companies in
annual conferences, before the European Union put an end to it in 2006.
28 2 The Most Important Players and Business Models at a Glance
As with any boom, there are some stories s that look much better than others.
The key to a shipping company is the maintenance costs and the art of ensur-
ing the maximum and permanent utilization of transport capacities. Not least for
this reason, the shipping companies have a great need for digitalization, but there
are individual exceptions. Hapag-Lloyd, for example, currently earns the most per
container because the group has very consistently digitized all value-adding pro-
cesses already and at any time measures the revenues of its customers or with
booking software can optimally design the offer for profit maximization.
One scenario would be for an investor or shipping consortium to purchase a
slightly struggling or comparatively weak shipping company, modernize it in its
entirety, and thus build up a counterweight to the shipping companies. A disad-
vantage of this scenario would be that the forwarders involved would certainly
become “persona non grata” with other shipping companies. But how bad would
that really be, especially since most forwarders already feel like this because of
the poor service, the often-complained-about unreliability, and other problems.
One would have to check whether such an approach can be excluded on competi-
tion law grounds. A similar construct has existed for years and very successfully:
the intermodal association “Kombiverkehr” (Kombiverkehr Deutsche Gesells-
chaft für kombinierten Güterverkehr mbH & Co. KG 2022). It is characterized by
a peaceful and fair coexistence between 230 (!) logistics service providers and the
monopoly Deutsche Bahn. The transport companies involved in Kombiverkehr
KG and DB Cargo are focusing on expanding the joint network into a real timeta-
ble operation.
Overall, it must be noted that the container shipping industry is much less trans-
parent than many other large industries and is long overdue for a disruption. But
instead, a rationalization has been taking place for years, in which the big ones
absorb the small ones. But since the fast are eating the slow in many places today,
the scenario described previously is not entirely unrealistic. For this, a small
group of financially strong logistics service providers is required, which acquire
a medium-sized shipping company and thus ensure a little more equality of arms.
2022). This is completely unthinkable for any other area in the logistics industry
with a comparable size of market.
forwarders have to submit to this, they simply have no other choice. However,
what they do have is the ability to shift into a much higher gear of innovation:
finding out more about the customer and their hidden needs.
The largest advantage of the forwarders over the shipping companies is based
on the extensive relevant knowledge regarding the forwarding business. The ship-
ping companies that want to take this business for themselves first have to acquire
this knowledge with great effort. In addition, a logistics service provider can offer
a variety of services that a shipping company does not have: above all, its neutral-
ity and its flexibility in choosing the space on the ship. However, the latter fell far
behind in recent months, as many forwarders were hopelessly overwhelmed by
the capacity problems that arose during the Coronavirus pandemic and, in par-
ticular, after the blockage of the Suez Canal. Although many forwarders recorded
record profits, they were still more in the wake of the wave than surfing it con-
fidently. Exceptions such as Expeditors International and DSV Air & Sea are
exceptions that confirm the rule.
So what will be the goal of MAERSK, MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd and
Co.? The acquisition of Senator International by Maersk shows that they want to
control the entire process. Of course, the numbers that a shipping company gener-
ates with this (in the traditional freight forwarder environment) are low, but please
remember the exponential curve that remains flat for a long time until it suddenly
increases sharply and cuts into the established market!
Imagine the following scenario: You have been bidding for years on a large
tender, say 3000 TEU, and have always been offering with CMA CGM, partly
also with MSC. Now you learn from your customer that this one will also invite
shipping companies to the tender. As a result, your customer invites CMA CGM
to submit a bid as well. Now two options are conceivable: Either CMA CGM
politely declines and refers to the already existing participation by your company,
or CMA CGM submits a bid and terminates the cooperation for this customer
with you. In any case, it is extremely important that your product manager is in
2.2 The Business Models in the Logistics World 31
close exchange with your sales department, so that—if something like this hap-
pens or is about to happen—this is anticipated in time.
Someone once said that it is important to keep your friends close and your
enemies closer still. From this it follows that as a sales manager you have to deal
much more with the shipping companies. In addition, there will be differences,
that is, there will also be shipping companies that are not quite as forceful with
you as others. The instrument you have in your hand and with which you can
exert pressure is the volume you can withdraw from the shipping companies and
give to the competition.
How delicate this can sometimes be is shown by the example of Schenker and
Maersk, after Maersk had stamped out the in-house shipping brand Damco for
reasons of market rationalization. When this happened at the end of 2020, Schen-
ker openly declared to all then existing Damco customers that they wanted to
match their rates (Jakubowska 2020). Maersk reacted angrily and immediately
terminated all existing rate contracts with Schenker and declared Schenker to be
“Spediteur non grata”. Schenker had completely miscalculated and underesti-
mated Maersk’s appetite for freight volume and market share.
This underlines the plans of Maersk or other shipping companies to wrest as
large a market share from the freight forwarders as possible. The underlying con-
sideration is as simple as this : Imagine you are the shipper of a good, that is, the
customer. Why should someone be intermediated between you and the shipping
company as the owner of the cargo ship and make your life more difficult than it
already is? In addition, this would mean that this middleman would take a piece
of the cake.
One could object that the shipping companies do not want to get rid of the
freight forwarders completely, but are willing to give up a certain capacity share
to them—probably 25 to 30%—to sell them to the highest possible spot rates.
This would create a very profitable mix calculation for the shipping companies.
You can see: The shipping companies are significantly less threatened with
extinction than the freight forwarders. Solely due to the special market constel-
lation, the freight forwarders are far more dependent on the shipping companies
than vice versa. In addition, some of the largest shipping companies can rely
heavily on the help of their home country. This definitely plays a significant role:
In the case of Hapag-Lloyd, the German state intervened with billions after the
financial crisis in 2008 to avert insolvency (Jakubowska 2020).
To offset this unfair advantage, it is necessary to redefine the rules on the part
of the logistics service providers. At present, however, hardly any logistics service
provider dares to do this, and this is reflected in the low single-figure percentage
stagnating margins.
32 2 The Most Important Players and Business Models at a Glance
One almost gets the impression that a widespread lethargy has taken hold in
the logistics service market, but there are exceptions that will be presented below.
Furthermore, we will take a closer look at the secrets of two “brand stars”. These
are companies for me that have constantly increased their margin over several
years and are well above the industry average of 3 to 4% EBIT margin. And last
but not least, you will see that most of these secrets are also applicable to other
companies—regardless of the size of the company.
But let’s first deal with the question of why the logistics service industry is
characterized by such weak margins.
A carrier organizes the transport of goods from A to B or takes over the storage
of goods. Most carriers generate a low margin for the effort and pressure they are
exposed to, in the single digits. The first and nevertheless most important reason
for this is the very difficult market situation from which no logistics service pro-
vider can escape: Due to the extremely fragmented market situation, there is sim-
ply too much choice for customers, in whose eyes each of the providers does the
same as its competitors. Furthermore, the entry barriers into the market are very
low. So you don’t even need your own assets, as digital carriers have been doing
more recently. Since one can traditionally only charge small surcharges for ser-
vices that one buys elsewhere (for example, the physical sea or air freight trans-
port), a clever portfolio is needed that allows a large number of logistics services
to be offered in-house as a whole and thus to gain an advantage over the competi-
tion. Good examples of this are logistical additional services such as the assembly
of semi-finished products in the warehouses or relevant IT products that can be
developed completely in-house and thus sold to any number of customers.
Most logistics service providers also have the problem that they still offer their
services according to the one-size-fits-all principle, instead of using smart solu-
tions to set themselves apart from the competition. Furthermore, there are hardly
any differences in the way in which the companies serve certain customers, let
alone a selection process with which customers they actually want to work with.
The internal costs are too high, too much manual work is necessary and the IT
processes are too little thought out. This results in a vicious circle from which it is
difficult to break out. You have to take a step back in terms of turnover or number
of customers, in order to take two to three steps forward in terms of margin.
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Fridriket, a kinek egyátalán semmi vallása sem volt, Angliában jó
ideig a protestantismus hősének tartották) – s ezek a jó protestansok
a szegény Károlinára bizonyos Pater Urbánt uszitottak, egy nagyon
tapasztalt jézsuitát s hirhedett lélek-fogdosót. De ő megszalasztotta
a jézsuitát, visszautasitotta VI. Károlyt, s hozzá ment a hannoveri kis
választóherczeghez, kit aztán szerelemmel, a legnagyobb
önfeláldozással, finom gyöngédséggel, édes hízelgéssel s őszinte
megadással kényeztetett egész a koporsó bezártáig.
Midőn I. György először ment Hannoverba látogatóba,
távollétének tartamára fiát nevezték ki személyesének. De ezt a
tisztességet nem is bizták többet soha ő walesi herczegségére, mert
közvetlen rá meghasonlott az apa és fiu. Mert második fia
kereszteltetésekor királyi versenygés támadt, s a herczeg,
Newcastle herczegének orra alatt hadonázva öklével, gazembernek
czimezte, s kiszállt atyjával szemben. El is kellett aztán mind neki,
mind nejének Sz.-Jakab palotáját hagyniok, s a család királyi fejének
parancsára herczegi gyermekeiket is elvették tőlük. Az atya és anya
kesergve sirtak, midőn kicsinyeiktől megváltak. A kis apróságok,
száz csók kiséretében, nehány szem cseresnyét küldtek papának,
mamának s a szülők könyeikkel áztaták a gyümölcsöt – de
harminczöt év multán már nem voltak könyeik, midőn Frigyes
herczeg meghalt – Frigyes herczeg, idősb fiok, örökösük –
ellenségük.
A király menyét csak úgy hivta, hogy „ c e t t e d i a b l e s s e
m a d a m e l a p r i n c e s s e “, – s ez utóbbi látogatóinak meg volt
tiltva, hogy a király színe előtt megjelenjenek, s midőn ő királyi
felsége Bathba ment, az udvaronczok oda mentek utána, s a
Londonban eltiltott hódolatot Somersetshireben nyilvániták ki.
A „cette diablesse madame la princesse“
kifejezés a királyi após haragjának egyik okát megmagyarázza.
Menyem-asszony igazán eszes egy fehérnép volt, nagy hajlama volt
az éles gúnyolodásra, s szurós nyelvével szerette nevetségessé
tenni a megrottyant szultánt és ránczos háremét, s piszkolodó
leveleket irt róla haza, a család minden tagjának. Ily módon
száműzve a király közeléből, a herczeg és herczegasszonyt
Leicester Fieldsen üté föl sátrát, „hol“, mondja Walpole, „a következő
uralkodási felvonás legtöbbet igérő tagjai s a legszebb és
legkedvesebb fiatal nők képezék udvarunkat.“ Leicester Fieldsen
kivűl még Richmondban is volt lakásuk, amaz idők
legmulatságosabb társaságaitól látogatva. Oda jártak a Herveyk,
Chesterfieldek s a twickenhami kis Pope uram s vele néha a Sz.
Patrick egyházi korhel esperes (Dr. Swift) és egy egész sereg fiatal
nő, kiknek csinos arczaik mosolygva néznek ránk a történelem
könyvéből. Megfordult ott Lepell, a balladák eldallásának mestere;
meg a kihivó, gyönyörü Bellenden Mari, ki a walesi herczeg
szépettevő bókjairól hallani sem akart, hanem – összefonva karjait
szép mellén – megmondta ő királyi felségének, hogy csak hordja el
magát, s aranytelt erszényét a szeme közé dobván, utána kiáltott,
hogy jóllakott már vele, hogy mindig csak előtte számlálgatja pénzét.
Bizony nem igen magasra ágaskodó fejedelem volt ez az Augustus.
Walpole beszéli, hogy a királyi kártya-asztalnál, a játszi herczeg-
asszonyok egy este Deloraine asszony alól kikapták a széket, – ez
pedig, kölcsönben, a királyét húzta ki alóla, úgy hogy ő felsége
hanyatt vágta magát a szőnyegen. Akármily állásban – jobban
mondva fekvésben – lássuk is ezt a György királyt: így vagy úgy,
mindig van valami nevetséges rajta; még Dettingennél is, hol pedig
oly vitézül küzdött, még ott is figura figurája van – a mint, az angolt
törve, kiabál, kardjával hadonász, mint egy vívó-mester. Az akkori
gúnyképek közt a „Cullodeni hős“ czimü jól meg is czirógatja György
fiát. –
De már elég volt Walpoleból, Györgyre vonatkozólag, ennyi
idézet – annyival is inkább, mivel e kedves kötetek mindenki kezén
forognak, ki a mult évszáz pletykáit szereti. Igazán nem lehet semmi
mulatságosabb, mint Horace levelei; mintha mindeniken hegedűk
szólanának végig, viasz-gyertyák, szép ruhák, jó viczczek, gazdag
ezüstnemü s pompás fogatok csillognak-villognak bennök – soha
ragyogóbb, vigabb, hahotázóbb sokadalom, mint a melyen ő vezet át
bennünket. Hervey, az utána következő tekintély, már setétebb
szinben látja a világot, őt mintha a félelmesség szelleme lengné
körül. Nehány éve, hogy örökösei az ickworthi leveles-láda födelét
felnyitották; mintha Pompeji nyilt volna meg az ember előtt! mintha
kiásták volna az egész mult évszázat: templomaival és játékaival,
kocsiival, nyilvános helyeivel, bordélyházaival. Midőn a halottak e
városán végigsétáltam, végig e borzasztó önző koron, ez istentelen
cselszövényeken és tivornyákon, e szemtelen, sovár, küzködő,
kikendőzött, hazudozó, tányérnyaló – tömegeken: ugy szerettem
volna egy párt találni köztük, kikre jó szemmel nézhessek.
Fölkerestem e kor történelmében jártas barátaimat, s szólék:
„Mutassatok nekem vagy egy derekat ez udvarnál; keressetek ez
önző udvaronczok, e kicsapongó, vigadó tömeg közt bár egyet, kit
szerethessek, tisztelhessek.“ Ott van II. György, az a páváskodó kis
szultán; ott van az a puposhátu, ijesztő Chesterfield lord, s ott van
Hervey János, gyilkoló mosolyával s kisérteties festett pofájával –
gyűlölöm őket! Vagy ott van Hoadly, egyik püspökségtől a másikig
görnyedezve, – tul meg a twickenhami kis Pope uram lépdel
barátjával, az ír esperessel, uj reverendájában, szintén bókolva, de
bozontos szemöldei alatt a méreg sugári fénylenek s mosolya
mögött a gúny és gyűlölet reszket. És már: lehet ezeket szeretni?
Pope-ot szeretném: legalább szellemét, gúnyját, nagyságát,
értelmességét lehetne szeretni – csak ne lennék a felől is bizonyos,
hogy mihelyt azt hiszi, hogy valamiben elejébe tettek, vagy hogy
gúnyosan tekintettem rá: azonnal megfordul és leszúr. És lehet-e
bizni a királynéban? Nem a mi rendünkből való ő, – a királyokat és
királynőket már helyzetük egyedülállókká teszi. E kifürkészhetlen
asszonynak volt egy kifürkészhetlen vonzalma, s ez egyhez aztán hű
is, minden gyötretés, mellőzés, kín és idő daczára. Férje kivételével
valóban nem gondol semmi teremtett lénynyel. Gyermekeihez elég
jó, sőt talán elég gyöngéd is, – de azért darabokra szedné őket, ha
tudná, hogy férje kedvét megnyerné általa. Egész környezetével a
legnagyobb barátsággal, jóakarattal és természetességgel bánt, –
de ha a jó barátok meghaltak, a lányok férjhez mentek: az utánok
következőkhez csak oly barátságos, csak oly jóakaratú. Ha a király
kivánja: rámosolyog, ha még oly bús lenne is; sétál vele, ha még oly
fáradt is, s vastag tréfáin jóizüen nevet, ha még oly metsző is testi
lelki kínja. Valóságos csuda, a mit Károlinának férje iránti
odaadásáról olvashatni. Miféle bűbája lehetett ennek a kis
embernek? Mik lehettek azokban a csodálatos, harmincz lap hosszú
levelekben, melyeket – ha nem volt otthon: nejének, s ha
feleségénél Londonban volt: hannoverai hölgyeinek irt? Mért
választotta Károlina, Németország legbájosabb és miveltebb
herczegnője ezt a kis piros-pozsgás, meredt szemü herczegecskét,
egy császár kezét utasítván vissza? Miért szerette őt annyira utolsó
órájaig? – mert iránta való szeretetből pusztitotta el önmagát, mert,
noha podagrája volt, hideg vizben áztatta meg lábait, csak hogy
sétálni mehessen vele. A halál fátylával szemén, elviselhetlen
kínoktól gyötörtetve – még akkor is tudott férjéhez, urához egy
halvány mosolyt, egy gyöngéd szót intézni. Olvastátok-e halálos
ágya csodálatos történetét? Hogyan kérte a haldokló férjét, hogy
házasodjék meg ismét, s hogy böffentette vissza feleletét az öreg
király: „ N o n , n o n , j ’ a u r a i d e m a î t r e s s e s . “ Ennél
kisértetiesebb bohózat aligha volt valaha. Én is tanuja vagyok e
bámulatos jelenetnek, – én is ott állok ama borzasztó ágy szélénél,
bámulva az isteni gondviselés különös útait, melyeken elrendezé
teremtményei számára az életet, szeretetet, jutalmat, eredményt,
szenvedélyt, cselekvést és halált – és csak kaczagni tudok – itt, a
halál jelenlétében, szivem mély búsulásában. Lord Hervey sokat
emlegetett passusában, melyben a királyné halálos ágyát irja le, a
részletek groteszk borzalma felülmúl minden szatirát, – a jelenet
ijesztő gúnyja megdöbbentőbb Swift legfeketébb lapjainál, vagy
Fielding legmerészebb ironiájánál. E jelenet feljegyzőjének alakját
valami ördögi veszi körűl, s valóban félek, hogy ama borzasztó
versek, melyeket Pope majdnem sátáni gonoszságának egyik
rohamában irt Herveyre, nem hazudnak. Elijedek, a mint
visszatekintve a multba, úgy tetszik, hogy amaz ijesztőn szép arczot
látják szemeim, a mint rágondolok a halálos ágyán vonagló
királynéra, ki fölkiált: „Imádkozz, imádkozz!“ – és a mellette álló
királyi vén bűnösre, ki őrült fájdalommal csókdossa halott ajkait, s
avval ott hagyja, hogy még többet vétkezzék; – és az udvari
lelkészek csoportjára, és az érsekre – a mint a haldokló
visszautasitja imáikat, de a kik az illem kedveért kénytelenek a nép
aggódó tudakozásira mindenféle kibuvó ajtókat felnyitogatni s
erősítgetni, hogy ő felsége ez élettől „istenes lelki állapotban“ vált
meg. Milyen élet! Milyen czélokra szentelve! Hiuságok hiusága!
Egészen más szószékbe való tárgy ez, mint a felolvasóéba.
Szószékbe? Azt hiszem, hogy az a szerep, melyet a szószékek a
királyok halálánál játszanak: a legkevésbbé épületes czeremonia. A
hazug dicsériádák, a kellemetlen igazságok átcsillámlása, az
utálatos hizelgések, a tettetett bánat, a csúszó-mászó hamis-szólás
– mindezt az ég nevében szórják szét állam-egyházunkban, s mind
e gyászdalokat emlékezetet meghaladó idők óta zengedeztetik a jó,
rosz, bűnös, kicsapongó királyok és királynék ravatala fölött. Az
állam-papnak le kell darálni a közhelyeit, ki kell tennie közszemlére
szónoki gyászrojtozatainak egész készletét. Halott avagy élő legyen
az a király: a lelkész hizelegni kénytelen – éltében kegyes voltát
hirdeti, ha pedig „indíttatva érzi magát ő felsége“, hogy meghaljon:
„legvallásosabb és legkegyelmesebb királyunk“ gyász-
istenitiszteletét kell végeznie.
Olvasom, hogy lady Yarmouth – legvallásosabb és
legkegyelmesebb királyunk kegyencze – ötvenezer forinton adott el
egy püspökséget egyházunk egyik férfiának. (Fogadott vele 50,000
forintba, hogy n e m nevezik ki püspöknek; a nagytiszteletü ur
vesztett – és fizetett.) Vajon ez volt az egyedüli főtisztelendő ur e
korban, kit ily kéz vezetett a fölkenetésre? Ha bepillantok Szent
Jakab palotájába, II. György idejében, egy egész sereg reverendát
látok, az udvarhölgyek hátsó lépcsőjénél tolongva, – kövér
erszények csúsznak lopva ölükbe, – és az a bűnös vén király ásitva
hallgatja udvari kápolnájában a mennyezet alatt, a neki papoló
káplánt! S miről szól a prédikáczió? – igazságosságról és
itélettételről! S míg a káplán papol, a király németül fecseg, majdnem
oly hangosan, mint a szónok; oly hangosan, hogy a lelkész – (lehet,
hogy épen bizonyos Dr. Young, az, a ki „Young éjszakái“-t irá s a
csillagok ragyogásáról, az égnek dicsőségéről s e világ teljes
hivságáról elmélkedett) – a bizony: sirva fakad katedrájában, mivel –
a hitnek védője és a püspökségek osztogatója nem akar ráhallgatni!
Valóban nem csoda, hogy e közönyösség és romlottság közepette
az egyháziak is romlottak és közönyösek. Valóban nem csoda, hogy
a kétkedők szaporodnak és az erkölcsök megvesztegettetnek, a
mennyire csak egy ilyen király befolyásától függenek. Valóban nem
csoda, hogy Whitefield feljajdult a pusztaság közepett, hogy Wesley
odahagyta a megfertőztetett templomot s a hegynek oldalára vonult
prédikálni. Tisztelettel nézek amaz idők e férfiaira. Melyik a
magasztosabb látvány: a jó Wesley János-e, körülvéve napszámos
gyülekezetétől, a bánya szádánál, – vagy pedig a királyné káplánjai,
a mint az előszobában a nagy Vénus képe alatt reggeli imájokat
mormolják, mig a szomszéd szoba ajtaja nyitva van, s ott benn a
királyné öltözködik, botránytörténeteket beszélve lord Herveynek,
vagy viczczelkedve lady Suffolkra, ki úrnője lábainál térdel a
mosdótállal? Mondom, meg vagyok ijedve, midőn e társaságon
végigtekintek, s látom ezt a királyt, ezeket az udvaronczokat, ezeket
az államférfiakat, ezeket a püspököket – ezt az arczátlan,
magamutató könnyelmüséget és bűnt. Melyik ennél az udvarnál a
becsületes ember? Melyik a tiszta lélek, kit szeretnünk lehetne? Ez
az illatszeres levegő megfojtja az embert! A mi mai udvarunknál is
van még kelendőben néhány özönviz előtti badarság s ízetlen
czeremonia, melyeket kikaczagok, – de, mint igazi angol, ha
összehasonlitom a multtal: ne ösmerjem-e el a jelen nagy
változását? Ha Sz. Jakab palotájának úrnője ma elmegy mellettem:
üdvözlöm a bölcs, mérsékelt, példás életü uralkodónőt, a jó anyát, a
jó nőt, a mívelt hölgyet, a müvészetek fölvilágosodott pártfogóját, a
nép diadalmiban és bánatiban gyöngéden résztvevőt.
György és Károlina egész udvarában egyedül csak Suffolk
asszonyt látom, ki megérdemli, hogy az ember szóba álljon vele.
Még a nőgyűlölő Croker is, levelei kiadója, szereti őt, s ama
tisztelettel viseltetik irányában, melyet gyöngéd leereszkedése, úgy
látszik, minden férfi és néhány nő szivében is fölkeltett, a ki csak
közelébe jutott. Sok finom vonást jegyeztem föl, melyek jellemének
bájáról tesznek tanuságot. (Megjegyzem, hogy nem azért említem
meg, hogy bájos, hanem mivel jellemző.) Levelei a gyönyörűségig
józanok. Egyikben, Mr. Gaynek, Tunbridgebe czimezve, – a mint
tudjuk, ez az úr szegény, kegyvesztett poéta volt, – így szól: „Jelen
lakozásának helye ugyancsak megtöltötte fejét doktorokkal és
gyógymódokkal; de – szavamra mondom – hej sok úri dáma ment
már oda vizet inni, a nélkül, hogy a kis körme is fájt volna – és, hej
sok úri ember panaszkodott szíve elvesztén, a ki pedig el nem
veszté. Ohajtom, hogy kegyed se veszítse el a magáét, mert nem
igen örülnék a szívtelen barátnak, már pedig nagyon szeretném
hogy kegyedet barátaim közé számíthassam.“
Midőn Peterborough lord hetven éves volt, a fékezhetlen ifjoncz
nehány lángoló szerelmes, jobban mondva udvarló levelet irt
Howard asszonynak. Csodálatos maradványai e levelek ama kor
kelendő regényeskedő modorú széptevésének. Nem szenvedély az,
nem is szerelem, hanem udvarlás; a komolyság és szinészkedés
vegyülete; magasra ágaskodó bókok, mély hajlongások,
esküdözések, sohajok, szerelmes pillantások, a Clelia regények és a
szinpadi Millamont és Doricourt modorában. Az egész csak a
legnagyobb mérvü szertartások, illemkedések, fellángolások nagy
halmaza volt – rendszeresitett térdeléstan és széptevéstan, melyek
a mi őszinteségünk idejében már kimentek divatból. Howard
Henrietta elfogadta a jó öreg lord széptevését, illő elismeréssel
válaszolt sajátságos szerelmes leveleire; mély pukedlit vágott
Peterborough mély hajlongásira és segittetett magának Gayvel a
levelek fogalmazásában, midőn válaszolt vén lovagjának. Ez pedig
irt hozzá csinos verseket, melyekből sem az igazság, sem a báj nem
hiányzott, igy kiáltván föl: