Monthly Gazette

05 / May 2022

CONSUMERS SPENDING

Four Highlights from Eid 2022

Ramadan and Eid holidays just ended a few weeks ago. In the midst of sloping COVID-19, the government
loosened mobility restrictions, including allowing people for homecoming activities during this Eid. This
has contributed to the gradual economic recovery. Beyond the solid recovery, however, we observe
several interesting phenomena, from the massive mobility, the increased distribution of spending, to the
growing cash transactions during homecoming.

THE HOMECOMING MOBILITY WAS MASSIVE

Different from the last two years, Eid 2022 was marked by massive homecoming activities. Quoting PT
Jasa Marga, the traffic movement ahead of Eid 2022 shown a record compared to the previous periods.
Traffic movements leaving Jabodetabek from D-10 to D-1 reached 1.7 million vehicles, a 9.5 percent
increase compared to the 2019 Eid homecoming. In total, the Ministry of Transportation estimates that
there are around 85.5 million people traveling during the homecoming and Eid holiday 2022. As a
comparison, the Ministry noted that the number of homecomers in 2020 was only 1.9 million people and
decreased to only 1.5 million travelers in 2021.

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Monthly Gazette
05 / May 2022

Figure 1. Weekly mobility in transit stations

30
Ramadan Ramadan Ramadan Massive mobility during 2022
20 2020 2021 2022
homecoming is confirmed by Google
10

0
mobility index data, where peak of
mobility at transit stations (airports,
08-Mar-20

08-Mar-21

08-Mar-22
08-Apr-20
08-May-20
08-Jun-20
08-Jul-20
08-Aug-20
08-Sep-20
08-Oct-20
08-Nov-20
08-Dec-20
08-Jan-21
08-Feb-21

08-Apr-21
08-May-21
08-Jun-21
08-Jul-21
08-Aug-21
08-Sep-21
08-Oct-21
08-Nov-21
08-Dec-21
08-Jan-22
08-Feb-22

08-Apr-22
08-May-22
10

20 train stations, ports, and terminals)

30 on Eid 2022 increases up to 133
40
percent compared to Eid 2021.
50

60

70

Source: Google Mobility Index, 4WMA, per 15 May 2022

SPENDING REACHED THE HIGHEST LEVEL

As a whole, consumer spending increased significantly during Ramadan and Eid holiday this year.
Spending, as shown by the Mandiri Spending Index (MSI), peaked in early May 2022 at the level of 159.9.
This value is 31 percent higher than the spending peak on Eid 2021, or 12 percent above the previous
peak that occurred at the end of 2021. The impact of Ramadan 2022 on spending is clearly seen if we see
the difference in the average of spending weekly growth before Ramadan and during Ramadan.
Of the 28 cities in Java that were observed, there were three cities (Banjar, Blitar, Salatiga) whose average
of spending weekly growth before Ramadan was still experiencing contraction. However, entering
Ramadan, the average growth across these all 28 cities was turned to the positive zone. If we see Java as
a whole, the average weekly growth during pre-Ramadan period was 1.7 percent, but then the value
increased by 4.4 times during the Ramadan and Eid holiday. In comparison, the growth increased during
Ramadan 2021 was only 1.6 times.

…AND IT SPREAD ACROSS ALL PLACES AS WELL Figure 2. Ratio of average spending weekly growth,
homecoming period vs weeks before (x)
When we compared the spending level between
homecoming period and weeks before, there is a 5.0
significant difference between Jabodetabek—i.e.
homecomers’ origins—and non-Jabodetabek—i.e. 3.2 3.4
3.6

2.7
destinations of homecomers. This is more obvious in 2.2
Ramadan 2022. Average spending weekly growth in
non-Jabodetabek areas during the homecoming period
was 5.0 times greater than the weeks before (figure 2).
2020 2021 2022
As a comparison, this ratio is only 2.2 times in the Jabodetabek Non-Jabodetabek
2021. The lower ratio in 2021 was partly due to
Source: Mandiri Institute
homecoming ban imposed by the government. As a
result, there is only a little mobility to non-Jabodetabek areas, hence lower the spending potential in
those areas.

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Monthly Gazette
05 / May 2022

BOX - Spending in tourism places continued strong for a few weeks after Eid
Meanwhile, compared to non-
holiday Jabodetabek, the ratio is lower in
Jabodetabek, except in 2021 when
Not only during Ramadan and Eid holidays, the uptrend index still occurred
homecoming is restricted. Even so,
for up to one week after the Eid holidays in provinces such as DI Yogyakarta,
Bali, and West Nusa Tenggara. As of mid-May, while the index generally the ratio in 2021 (3.4) is relatively
started slowing in many provinces, the MSI continued to increase in these the same as 2022 (3.6), quite
provinces, widely known as main tourism destinations. This suggested that contrast to non-Jabodetabek where
relaxed social restrictions had stimulated tourist attractions and visits in those
the ratio in 2022 is about 2.3 times
provinces, thus encouraging spending.
higher than 2021. This shows that
Mandiri Spending Index in Java and Bali & Nusa Tenggara this year's homecoming has
220 encouraged significant distribution
200

180
of spending to various regions,
160 higher than what we see in 2021.
140

120

100

80

60

40

20
26-Feb-21
26-Mar-21

26-May-21
26-Jun-21

26-Oct-21

26-Dec-21
26-Feb-20
26-Mar-20
26-Apr-20
26-May-20
26-Jun-20

26-Oct-20

26-Dec-20

26-Jan-22
26-Feb-22
26-Mar-22
26-Apr-22
26-Jan-21

26-Apr-21

26-Jul-21
26-Aug-21
26-Sep-21

26-Nov-21
26-Jan-20

26-Jul-20
26-Aug-20
26-Sep-20

26-Nov-20

Banten DKI Jakarta West Java

Central Java DI Yogyakarta East Java

Bali West Nusa Tenggara East Nusa Tenggara

Source: Mandiri Institute

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Monthly Gazette
05 / May 2022

INCREASED USE OF CASH INDICATES NEEDS FOR ENCOURAGING DIGITAL PAYMENT ADOPTION
In general, the use of cash during the pandemic is relatively low. This is indicated by the withdrawals
index at automated teller machine (ATM), which are generally below pre-pandemic levels in the majority
of regions. However, at certain periods, there is an increase in the use of cash, for example during the
Ramadan and year-end holidays. This is related to the higher mobility in these periods, including inter-city
travel, thus encouraging people to hold cash. Meanwhile, in the context of Eid, the culture of giving cash
to family or relatives when hold communal bonds (silaturahmi), also encourages the use of cash.

This Eid, cash withdrawals were Figure 3. Cash withdrawal index

recorded to be higher than the
Ramadan Nataru Ramadan Nataru Ramadan
previous Eids, where the withdrawal 140
2020 2020 2021 2021 2022

index increased up to 27% compared 120

to the previous months, mainly 100

occurred in Maluku & Papua and 80

Sulawesi (figure 3). Bali & Nusra and 60

Java, although also increasing, was
40
relatively lower than other regions. In
26 -Mar-2 0
26 -Apr-2 0

26 -Jun-2 0
26 -Jul- 20

26 -Oct-2 0

26 -Dec-2 0

26 -Mar-2 1
26 -Apr-2 1

26 -Jun-2 1
26 -Jul- 21

26 -Oct-2 1

26 -Dec-2 1

26 -Mar-2 2
26 -Apr-2 2
26 -Jan-20
26 -Feb -20

26 -May-20

26 -Aug -20
26 -Sep-20

26 -Nov-20

26 -Jan-21
26 -Feb -21

26 -May-21

26 -Aug -21
26 -Sep-21

26 -Nov-21

26 -Jan-22
26 -Feb -22
aggregate, this increase surpassed the
pre-pandemic levels for the first time Sumatra Jawa Kalimantan
Sulawesi Bali & Nusra Maluku & Papua
in the last two years, occurred from
one week before Eid to two weeks Source: Mandiri Institute

after when people do homecoming

and take the Eid holiday.

The relatively higher withdrawal index in Maluku & Figure 4. e-money ownership (server based) per population

Papua is in line with the relatively low ownership of

2.96
electronic money (server-based) in that region. As
shown in figure 4, the level of electronic money
ownership per population in regions such as Maluku
1.10
& Papua (0.14) and Sulawesi (0.42) is lower than
0.59 0.47
other regions. On the other hand, Java (2.96), 0.42
0.14

Kalimantan (1.10), and Bali & Nusra (0.59) have Jawa Kalimantan Bali & Sumatra Sulawesi Maluku &
relatively higher ratios. Nusra Papua

Source: Mandiri Institute, Bank Indonesia, BPS

However, even in Java, there are high disparities
between regions. Among the six provinces, only DKI Jakarta (32.93) and DI Yogyakarta (4.29) have a ratio
greater than one. As an illustration, the ratio in Jakarta is 74 times higher than Banten and 51 times
higher than West Java, the two provinces that are neighbors to DKI Jakarta.

Therefore, with the rapid trend of digitalization, and a journey to realize cashless society to support more
efficient economy, it is important to continue encouraging digital adoption in the payment system up to
the remote areas, both for the people and businesses, especially MSMEs.
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Monthly Gazette
05 / May 2022

Committed to a better Indonesia

MANDIRI INSTITUTE
Mandiri Institute is an independent research think tank of Bank Mandiri, which primary activities are doing research to help
regulators in building effective, efficient, and impactful regulations in banking & finance industry.

Mandiri Institute’s mission is to generate world-class economic research that helps public and private sector leaders make wise
decisions, especially on their biggest challenges. Mandiri Institute commits to support all stakeholders, including the government,
Bank Indonesia, and other institution, in understanding the nation’s development and economic challenges so that Indonesia can
play a larger role in the global economy.

TEAM
Andry Asmoro Executive Director
Teguh Yudo Wicaksono Head of Mandiri Institute
Bobby Hermanus Senior Research Specialist Andjarsari Paramaditha Researcher
Andre Simangunsong Senior Research Specialist Elisabeth Carolina Researcher

www.mandiri-research.or.id
mandiri.institute@bankmandiri.co.id
+6221 29528612
Fax +6221 29528625
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