SCHOOL OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

DEPARTMENT OF DATA SCIENCE AND ANALYTICS

SUMMER 2024 – ASSIGNMENT 2
COURSE CODE: STA 3040A

UNIT NAME: MATHEMATICAL MODELING AND SIMULATION

DATE: 25TH MAY 2024 TOTAL MARKS: 20 MARKS

INSTRUCTIONS:

For this exercise:

1. ANSWER ALL QUESTIONS

2. Do all your working in the Rmarkdown (.rmd). Include all the code and plots.
3. Ensure that your file knits successfully to HTML or PDF format.
4. NO SUBMISSIONS SHOULD BE DONE VIA EMAIL
BACKGROUND:

Kenya, like many countries around the world, has faced challenges in managing the COVID-
19 pandemic. For this hypothetical scenario, we’ll consider a situation where the
government of Kenya is analyzing the impact of COVID-19 spread and the effectiveness of
vaccination strategies. We also want to visualize the dynamics of the epidemic under the
given parameters.
Parameters:
Population Size: 50 million individuals
Initial Infected Individuals: 500
Initial Recovered Individuals: 0
Duration of Infectiousness: 10 days
Transmission Rate: 0.3 (per day)
Recovery Rate: 1/10 (0.1 per day)
Simulation Period: 180 days
Question 1: Model Framework (5 Marks)
Generate the schematic framework to illustrate the compartments and the rates
across different compartments

Write an R code snippet to initialize the parameters and initial state values for the
given COVID-19 scenario in Kenya.
Question 2: Model Implementation (5 Marks)
Implement the SIR model in R using the parameters defined in the scenario.

Your implementation should define the model equations and solve them over a
period of 180 days.

Explain the role of each parameter in the SIR model and how it influences the
dynamics of the epidemic.
Question 3: Data Analysis and Visualization (5 Marks)
Create a line plot showing the number of susceptible, infected, recovered, and
vaccinated individuals over time for the model implemented.

Ensure your plot is well-labeled and includes a legend.

Question 4: Intervention (5 Marks)
Assume a vaccination of 20% of the population. Discuss how the vaccination rate
affects the epidemic curve.

What changes do you observe in the number of infected individuals when the
vaccination rate is doubled?
Explain the importance of the transmission rate (𝛽) and how public health
interventions could reduce this rate.