INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH

Tata Consumer Products Ltd (TATACONS

IN)
Setting the stage for Growth and International business

INDIA | FMCG | Quarterly Update 25 April 2024

4QFY24 Financial Highlights:

• TCPL saw consolidated revenue growth of 9% YoY, marginal below our expectation due BUY (Maintain)
to flat growth in beverage portfolio (30% of Consol sales). However, margin was much CMP RS 1,110
TARGET RS 1,225 (+10%)
better than our estimates (expanded 190bps to 16% vs our estimates was 14.5%).
• India business grew 10% yoy driven via strong traction in foods business (up 20% YoY) SEBI CATEGORY: LARGE CAP

owing to improvement in economics scale of newly incubated categories (18% of India

COMPANY DATA
business). If excludes the Capital food and Organics India sales, India business grew 7% O/S SHARES (MN) : 953
led by 11% growth in food business. MARKET CAP (RSBN) : 1,058
MARKET CAP (USDBN) : 12.7
• Ebitda margin expanded c189ps YoY to 16% owing to gross margin improvement 52 - WK HI/LO (RS) : 1,270 / 700
(430bps) along with rationalization of operating overheads. LIQUIDITY 3M (USDMN) : 26
PAR VALUE (RS) : 1
• Adj PAT saw 57% growth YoY despite increase in depreciation (up 40% yoy) & interest
cost (55% yoy) and decline in other income (down 31% yoy – used to fund the recent SHARE HOLDING PATTERN, %
acquisition) due to strong operating performance and lower tax rate (5.1% in 4QFY24 vs Mar 24 Dec 23 Sep 23
PROMOTERS : 33.5 34.4 34.4
22.9% in 4QFY23). However, Reported PAT declined 19% yoy due to one-off cost incurred DII : 17.4 17.1 16.9
during 4QFY24. FII : 27.3 27.5 27.1
OTHERS : 21.8 21.1 21.6
Key takeaway from 4QFY24 Con-call (Read pg. no.2 for detail KTAs)
KEY FINANCIALS
• International: 4Q Growth was driven by improved business in UK market (up 11% yoy in Rs mn FY24E FY25E FY26E
cc) and resilient show in Canada business (up 9% yoy in CC) and EBIT margin expanded Net Sales 152,059 176,657 195,570
by 267bps to 15.6% owing to synergy from simplification and re-structuring of EBITDA 22,841 26,964 30,382
international business (brand re-positioning in UK, distribution expansion, change in Net Profit 11,503 15,007 17,879
EPS, Rs 12.1 15.4 18.4
packaging and price hike taken to remain competitive in the market). However, key thing
PER, x 59.5 46.6 39.1
to watch on Robusta coffee price as there’s Sharpe increase in 4Q (up 60% yoy) which
EV/EBITDA, x 45.9 38.6 34.7
may dent the margin in UK business if it’s remained firm. PBV, x 4.0 3.3 3.2
ROE, % 8.4 6.9 7.9
Outlook:
CHANGE IN ESTIMATES
• Tea Business: Volume growth expected to be 2-3% in short term but in medium to long __Revised Est. __ __% Revision__
term perspective, it would mid-single digit volume growth Rs bn FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E
• International business will remain focus spot as margin are accretive w.r.t India by 200- Revenue 176,657 195,570 4.0% 4.5%
300bps EBITDA 26,964 30,382 6.5% 6.1%
• Capital Food and Organic India will be EPS accretive from FY27 PAT 15,007 17,879 -4.5% -2.2%
EPS (Rs) 15.4 18.4 -9.3% -7.2%
• Growth business (including Capital Food and Organic India) will be 30% of India business
which will grow at @30% yoy
• Right use will likely to happen by early 2QFY25 Binay Shukla, Research Associate
bishukla@phillipcapital.in
View and Valuation:
We tweak our FY25/FY26 EPS by negative 9/7% respectively due to recent M&A integration.
However, we continue to maintain BUY rating with revised TP of Rs 1,225 (earlier TP – Rs.
1,250), valuing on 65x FY26EPS , +20% premium to its 3-year average PE of 53x), as its
operating margin should rise (EBITDA CAGR of 18% over FY23-26) as 1) recent M&A ( high
gross margin, distribution synergy and low penetration), 2) premiumization scope in core
portfolio ( Tea and Salt), 3) high growth potential in new business (Sampann, Soulfull and
Nourishco), 4) simplification and re-structuring of international business and 5) cost
efficiencies program should drive the growth going ahead.
Particulars (Rs mn) 4QFY24 4QFY23 YoY (%) 3QFY24 QoQ%
Revenues 39,269 36,187 8.5% 38,039 3.2%
EBITDA 6,296 5,117 23.0% 5,724 10.0%
PAT 4,324 2,750 57.3% 3,704 16.7%

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Exchange Commission. The activities of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. in the United States will be affected only to the extent permitted by Rule 15a-6 under the US Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and in
accordance with the Services Agreement entered into between PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. and Marco Polo Securities Inc with respect thereto. Contact at Marco Polo Securities is
clientservices@mpsecurities.com ; 1-347-745-6448. Powered by EQUITEC
 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Con-call Takeaways:
India Beverages: (34% of 4QFY24 CONSOL sales)
• India Beverage business saw only 2% growth owing to scale up of Nourishco
business (13% YoY).
• Market share loss continues in tea segment: It lost c50bps in value market share,
in our view, due to a) derives decent amount of sales from mass / mid segment,
where consumer curtailed consumption owing to higher CPI which led to shift to
loose packet b) market share gains by regional players – who are always price
competitive.
• Coffee business grew 45% during qtr owing to innovative launches across all
formats. Mgmt stated that Coffee business will expand gradually on back of
portfolio and distribution expansion. Moreover, TCPL has forayed into vending
business and installed 1000 machine during the quarter.
• Nourishco business (5% of total sales):: Nourishco business was below guidance
as per internal guidance ( guidance was Rs.9-10bn vs Actual revenue in FY24 was
Rs. 8.3bn) and portfolio saw only 13% YoY to Rs 2bn due to weak traction in Tata
Gluco+ (40% of total Nourishco sales + high margin product) on back of delayed
onset of summer. However, growth was partly offset by good growth in Tata
copper (up 29% yoy – 60% of total sales) on account of market share gain from
regional players. Moreover, distribution expansion (up 46% yoy to 950K outlets),
NPD (20% of total NourishCo) and geography expansion continue to drive the
growth momentum going ahead.

India Foods: (29% of total 4QFY24 Consol sales)

• India Food business clocked 20% revenue growth YoY owing to robust growth in
non-salt business. Moreover, it reported 5% vol growth mainly led via market
execution and volume growth in non-salt business
• Salt segment saw volume led growth of 5% YoY owing to 3% volume growth and
strong traction in premium salt portfolio. Moreover, gained around 1000bps
market shaare post-merger and reach close to 40% in FY24 driven by
premiumization (9% of total salt sales vs <1% before merger), distribution
expansion and portfolio expansion through NPD.
• Tata Sampann portfolio (skewed in E-com channel) reported 42% YoY on account
of broad-based performance across staples and new launches
• Growth categories: Kindly note that newly incubated categories (Sampann,
Soulfull, Nourishco) now contributes 18% of India sales in FY24 vs 15% in FY23;
whereas revenue grew 40% YoY. Mgmt highlight that Growth business would go
upto 30% post integration of new acquired business. Moreover, mgmt expects
30% of India business (M&A + Growth business) to keep growing at 30% run rate
for a decent amount of time

Non-Branded business: (10% of total sales of 4QFY24):

• Non-branded business grew 4% led by tea and coffee solubles business. solubles
business saw significantly improved profitability led by strong price realization in
coffee.
• However, plantations business recorded a revenue decline of 30%, owing to
muted volumes and lower tea prices.

International business: (27% of Total Sales of 4QFY24)

• International revenue witnessed 7% yoy (5%cc growth) due to strong
performance in UK market and good performance in Canada market Moreover,
EBIT grew 29% yoy owing to soft tea price and margin expanded 267bps yoy to
15.6% in 4QFY24.
• UK business Revenue for the quarter grew 11% in Constant Currency (CC)
(reported revenue growth of 17%) on back of market share in and distribution
expansion.

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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

• USA business: Coffee revenue for the quarter grew 2% in CC (reported revenue
growth of 3%).
• Canada: – Revenue for the quarter grew 9% in CC (reported revenue growth of
10%).

Starbucks (8% of Total Sales):

• Revenue grew 7% yoy in 4QFY24 on back of store addition (added +100 stores in
last 5 quarters). Mgmt believes that they can add another +600 stores by 2028
• Added 29 stores in 4QFY24 (entered 6 new cities) , taking total count to 421 stores
across 61 cities.

Others:
• E-commerce (11% as % of India sales) channel grew 35% in FY24.
• While, MT (14% of India Sales) channel up 9% in FY24
• Innovation to sales ratio improved by 170bps to 5.1% in FY24
• Total reach has been doubled in 3 years to 4mn outlets out of which 40% (1.6mn)
is direct reach. TCPL is continue to focus on increasing the depth of the distribution
via split routes (Sperate outlet for food and beverage) in all 1mn+ population
towns. Post stabilization, we are seeing higher throughput in towns where we
implemented our salesmen split-routes strategy
• Rurban focus – With all 50k+ population towns now having a direct distributor
(added 1,300 distributors in FY24). Moreover, Now going Below 50K population to
further increase their depth of distribution through focus on building a super
stockiest and sub distributor.
• 95% of total TCPL are now selling Capital foods products.

4QFY24: Financial Snapshot

Consolidated (Rs m) 4QFY23 4QFY24 % YoY
Net sales 36,187 39,269 8.5
Operating Costs (31,071) (32,973) 6.1
EBITDA 5,117 6,296 23.0
EBITDA Margin (%) 14.1 16.0 189bps
Depreciation (829) (1,158) 39.7
Interest (277) (428) 54.8
Other Income 553 385 -30.5
PBT 4,565 5,095 11.6
Provision for Tax (1,045) (260) `
-Tax Rate (%) 22.9 5.1 -1780bps
Net profit before minority 3,520 4,835 37.4
Minority Interest (210) 44
Share of profit from associate (560) (555)
Adj PAT 2,750 4,324 57.3
Net Profit Margin 7.6 11.0 341bps
EO Items (64) (2,158)
Reported PAT 2,686 2,166 -19.3
EPS 3.0 4.7 57.3

Gross Profit 15,133 18,111 19.7

Gross margins (%) 41.8 46.1 430bps

Cost Details 4QFY23 4QFY24 % YoY

Raw Material Consumption 21,054 21,159 0.5
As a % of sales 58.2 53.9 -430bps
Employees cost 2,861 3,413 19.3
As a % of sales 7.9 8.7 78bps
Other expenditure 7,156 8,402 17.4
As a % of sales 19.8 21.4 162bps
Source: PhillipCapital India Research

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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Segmental Performance
Segmental Revenue (In mn) 4QFY23 4QFY24 YoY% 3QFY24 QoQ%
- Indian – Beverages 12,852 13,238 3.0 13,154 0.6%
- India – Foods 9,626 11,552 20.0 10,704 7.9%
Total India 22,478 24,789 10.3 23,859 3.9%
- International – Beverages 9,841 10,525 7.0 10,284 2.3%
Total Branded Business 32,319 35,320 9.3 34,033 3.8%
Non-Branded Business 3,853 4,015 4.2 4,106 -2.2%
Total Revenue 36,172 39,335 8.7 38,139 3.1%

EBIT (In mn) 4QFY23 4QFY24 YoY% 3QFY24 QoQ %

Total India 3,116 3,203 2.8 3,685 -13.1%
- International – Beverages 1,272 1,642 29.0 1,088 50.9%
Total Branded Business 4,388 4,845 10.4 4,772 1.5%
Non-Branded Business 259 919 255.7 492 86.8%
Total EBIT 4,647 5,764 24.0 5,265 9.5%

EBIT Margin 4QFY23 4QFY24 YoY Change 3QFY24 QoQ Change

Total India 13.9 12.9 -94bps 15.4 -252bps
- International – Beverages 12.9 15.6 267bps 10.6 502bps
Total Branded Business 13.6 13.7 14bps 14.0 -31bps
Non-Branded Business 6.7 22.9 1619bps 12.0 1091bps
Total EBIT 12.8 14.7 181bps 13.8 85bps
Source: PhillipCapital India Research

.
Coverage Universe Valuation
Company Fw Multiple (FY25) Reco/Upside
Tata Consumer Products Ltd 60 BUY 10%
Britannia Industries 44 BUY 15%
ITC Ltd 23 BUY 19%
Hindustan Unilever Ltd 48 NEUTRAL 6%
Colgate Palmolive 52 SELL -27%
Asian Paints 52 NEUTRAL 12%
Godrej Consumer Products 49 BUY 15%
Marico Industries 40 NEUTRAL 10%
Dabur India 45 NEUTRAL 13%
Nestle India 71 BUY 12%
Emami Ltd. 20 NEUTRAL 12%
Agro Tech Foods 43 NEUTRAL -3%
Bajaj Consumer Care 13 BUY 19%
Source: PhillipCapital India Research

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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Financials
Income Statement Cash Flow
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net sales 137,832 152,059 176,657 195,570 Pre-tax profit 17,936 20,228 22,895 26,591
Growth, % 10.9 10.3 16.2 10.7 Depreciation 3,041 3,772 3,934 4,203
Other operating income - - - - Chg in working capital (254) (563) (1,954) (1,503)
Raw material expenses (80,057) (85,639) (98,656)(107,930) Total tax paid (3,887) (3,947) (5,953) (6,914)
Employee expenses (11,204) (12,586) (15,103) (17,066) Cash flow from operating activities 15,544 19,489 18,922 22,378
Other Operating expenses (19,344) (20,772) (23,464) (25,603) Capital expenditure (1,399) (2,500) (2,500) (2,500)
EBITDA (Core) 18,565 22,841 26,964 30,382 Chg in investments (6,816) 7,000 - -
Growth, % 8.0 23.0 18.1 12.7 Chg in marketable securities - - - -
Margin, % 13.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 Cash flow from investing activities (8,278) (52,500) (2,500) (2,500)
Depreciation (3,041) (3,772) (3,934) (4,203) Free cash flow 14,145 16,989 16,422 19,878
EBIT 15,524 19,070 23,030 26,179 Equity raised/(repaid) - - - -
Growth, % 7.7 22.8 20.8 13.7 Debt raised/(repaid) (38) 35,000 (35,000) -
Margin, % 11.3 12.5 13.0 13.4 Dividend (incl. tax) (5,734) (7,432) (9,728) (10,700)
Interest paid (872) (1,298) (1,363) (1,000) Cash flow from financing activities (6,589) 27,568 (44,728) (10,700)
Other Income 1,689 2,456 1,228 1,412 Net chg in cash 678 (5,443) (28,306) 9,178
Non-recurring Items - - - -
Pre tax profit 16,341 20,228 22,895 26,591
Tax provided (4,470) (3,947) (5,953) (6,914)
Profit after tax 10,443 14,774 15,007 17,879
Valuation Ratios
Minorities/JV shares (1,428) (1,507) (1,935) (1,798) FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Net Profit 12,038 11,503 15,007 17,879 Per Share data
Growth, % 28.5 (4.4) 30.5 19.1 EPS (INR) 13.1 12.1 15.4 18.4
Net Profit (adjusted) 12,038 11,503 15,007 17,879 Growth, % 28.5 (7.6) 27.8 19.1
Unadj. shares (m) - - - - Book NAV/share (INR) 176.6 178.5 216.3 223.7
Wtd avg shares (m) 922 953 973 973 FDEPS (INR) 13.1 12.1 15.4 18.4
CEPS (INR) 9.8 8.1 11.4 14.1
CFPS (INR) 16.9 20.5 19.5 23.0
Balance Sheet DPS (INR) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY23 FY24E FY25E FY26E
Cash & bank 27,969 22,526 29,221 38,398 Return ratios
Marketable securities at cost 7,547 7,547 7,547 7,547 Return on assets (%) 4.6 5.4 5.3 6.1
Debtors 7,983 9,998 11,616 12,859 Return on equity (%) 6.1 8.4 6.9 7.9
Inventory 27,017 27,079 31,459 34,828 Return on capital employed (%) 8.5 8.6 10.0 11.0
Loans & advances 5,297 5,297 5,297 5,297 ROIC (%) 7.8 7.8 8.7 9.9
Other current assets 7,272 7,272 7,272 7,272
Total current assets 83,086 79,720 92,412 106,202 Turnover ratios
Investments 4,409 (2,591) (2,591) (2,591) Asset turnover (x) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7
Gross fixed assets - - - - Sales/Net FA (x) 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.0
Less: Depreciation - - - - Working capital/Sales (x) 12.4 15.8 17.7 19.1
Add: Capital WIP 5,009 5,009 5,009 5,009 Receivable days 21.1 24.0 24.0 24.0
Net fixed assets 133,561 189,290 187,856 186,153 Inventory days 71.5 65.0 65.0 65.0
Non - current assets 6,569 5,713 5,028 4,480 Payable days 62.2 60.0 60.0 60.0
Total assets 228,111 272,615 283,189 294,728 Working capital days 30.5 29.0 29.0 29.0

Trade Payables 23,482 24,996 29,039 32,149 Liquidity ratios

Provisions 774 774 774 774 Current ratio (x) 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.8
Total current liabilities 29,480 30,994 35,037 38,147 Quick ratio (x) 1.0 0.6 1.0 1.1
Non - current liabilities 20,459 55,459 20,459 20,459 Interest cover (x) 17.8 14.7 16.9 26.2
Total liabilities 56,843 93,357 62,400 65,509 Total debt/Equity (x) 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1
Paid - up capital 929 929 973 973 Net debt/Equity (x) (0.2) 0.1 (0.1) (0.1)
Reserves & surplus 161,838 169,177 209,413 216,592
Minorities 8,502 9,152 10,403 11,654 Valuation
Shareholders’ equity 171,269 179,259 220,789 229,218 PER (x) 55.0 59.5 46.6 39.1
Total equity & liabilities 228,111 272,615 283,189 294,728 PEG (x) yoy growth 1.9 (7.9) 1.7 2.0
Price/Book (x) 4.1 4.0 3.3 3.2
EV/Net sales (x) 7.3 6.9 5.9 5.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 54.2 45.9 38.6 34.7
EV/EBIT (x) 64.9 54.9 45.2 40.2
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research

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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Stock Price, Price Target and Rating History

1500

1300

B (T 1250)
1100

900 B (T 1000)

B (T 930) B (T 915) B (T 900)

700 B (T 850) B (T 860) B (T 825)

500

300

100
A-21 J-21 J-21 A-21 O-21 N-21 J-22 F-22 A-22 M-22 J-22 A-22 S-22 N-22 D-22 F-23 M-23 M-23 J-23 A-23 S-23 B (T D-23 J-24 M-24
1000)

Source: PhillipCapital India Research

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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

Rating Methodology
We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year.
We have different threshold for large market capitalisation stock and Mid/small market capitalisation stock.
The categorisation of stock based on market capitalisation is as per the SEBI requirement.

Large cap stocks

Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +10% Target price is equal to or more than 10% of current market price
NEUTRAL -10% > to < +10% Target price is less than +10% but more than -10%
SELL <= -10% Target price is less than or equal to -10%.

Mid cap and Small cap stocks

Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL -15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than -15%
SELL <= -15% Target price is less than or equal to -15%.

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PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has three independent equity research groups: Institutional Equities, Institutional Equity Derivatives, and Private Client Group.
This report has been prepared by Institutional Equities Group. The views and opinions expressed in this document may, may not match, or may be contrary at
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 TATA CONSUMER PRODUCTS LTD QUARTERLY UPDATE

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of the company(ies) covered in the Research report
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES FOR U.S. PERSONS

For U.S. persons only: This research report is a product of PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd., under Marco Polo Securities 15a-6 chaperone service, which is the
employer of the research analyst(s) who has prepared the research report. The research analyst(s) preparing the research report is/are resident outside the
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regarding, among other things, communications with a subject company, public appearances and trading securities held by a research analyst account.

Research reports are intended for distribution only to "Major Institutional Investors" as defined by Rule 15a-6(b)(4) of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Act, 1934
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PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd. has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").

Transactions in securities discussed in this research report should be affected through Marco Polo or another U.S. registered broker dealer.

PhillipCapital (India) Pvt. Ltd.

Registered office: 18th floor, Urmi Estate, Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (West), Mumbai – 400013, India.

MANISH Digitally signed by MANISH AGARWALLA

DN: c=IN, o=PHILLIPCAPITAL INDIA PRIVATE

AGARWALL
LIMITED, ou=EMPLOYEE, postalCode=400013,
st=Maharashtra,
serialNumber=8F2FAC440030280867A204DE684
40ACC0F02155E901622E89B053BA0537514A1,

A
cn=MANISH AGARWALLA
Date: 2024.04.25 08:36:08 +05'30'

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