SITUATION ANALYSIS

0.2% death of every year Over 7.2 M people were Cyclone Mocha had damaged
is encountered due to Heat affected by the June 2022 floods 2,522 houses in the past.
related issues. in northeastern Bangladesh.

The current FFWC pre-monsoon

1430 people aged 65 and
above died from heat related
causes in Bangladesh
between 2017 to 2021
(Study by the Grantham Research Institute
on Climate Change and Environment and
Centre for Climate Change Economics at the
London School of Economics )
flash flood forecasting system is
inadequate for effective
Anticipatory Action due to short
Lead time of 72 hours and under
prediction of rapid water level
increases.
Bangladesh faces the recurring
challenge of enduring an average
of 5 severe cyclones each year,
with coastal areas being the
most susceptible zone to their
impact.

Lack of an integrated platform in Bangladesh for proactive measures against forecasted hazards to minimize
humanitarian impacts, coupled with insufficient transparency in fundraising, necessitates greater accountability
 HOLISTIC PRODUCT SOLUTION

BIG IDEA Introducing PROJECT DURBAR the first ever integrated Early Warning System utilizing the
meteorological data and advanced weather forecasting models to predict the occurrence of
heatwaves, flash floods, cyclone associated rainfall along with pre and post disaster
anticipatory support

CORE PRODUCT FEATURE

Empowering Bangladesh through an AI-driven
MISSION
early warning system for heatwaves, flash floods,
● Flash Flood Forecasting using the detection
cyclone associated rainfall with a real-time chatbot
of Atmospheric River
facility ● Develop Early Warning System for Heat Wave
using Machine Learning
● Social Media Messenger Chatbot
● Post disaster relief distribution and tracking
VISION ● Forecasting Cyclone associated heavy rainfall
Developing an integrated disaster forecasting
and regional variation using a
platform along with an efficient and trustworthy
Machine learning algorithm and Functional
post disaster fund and relief management
Mixed effect model
 PROJECT CONSIDERATIONS

Hazards we are dealing with (Flash Flood, Heatwave & Cyclone associated Rainfall)
Analysis of the ○ Identification of the exposed areas and communities
Hazard ○ variables for forecasting
○ Effect of climate change

Flash Flood: Detection of Atmospheric River using Integrated Vapor Transport and other climatic data as
input
Heat wave: using advanced and efficient models, such as MLP, deep learning (human visual system
Methods for inspired model), logistic regression, maximum entropy model to predict and simulate extreme but plausible
heat waves.
forecasting Cyclone-associated rainfall: After selecting the most affected region, supervised and unsupervised
Machine learning models like (Random forest, logistic regression, Support vector Machine, Hybrid
Models,XGBoost, etc.) will be used to find the best-performed forecasting model for cyclone associated
rainfall erly (at least before 3-5days)

Integration Provide Idea of the Web Application Interface where the algorithms will collect the data automatically from
of the the sources by building a framework and disseminating the information in real time
Forecasts
 HOW THE MODEL WILL WORK?

There will be an automated

machine learning web
application will provide advance
notifications about impending
disasters such as heatwaves,
flash floods. It achieves this by
analyzing historical and real-time
data and delivering alerts 2-3
days in advance.

There is a diagram explaining

how the data will be
disseminated or the notification.
 BREAKDOWN OF THE WORKFLOW
STEP - 1
Leverage advanced models such
as MLP, deep learning inspired by
the human visual system, logistic
regression, and maximum
entropy to predict and simulate
extreme yet plausible heatwaves,
optimizing accuracy and
reliability.
STEP - 2
Commence an exhaustive data
collection and processing phase
for modeling by acquiring
meteorological, geographical, and
historical heatwave datasets,
employing advanced data
processing techniques for
cleaning, preprocessing, and
integration, ensuring the selected
models are well-trained to capture
heatwave dynamics' complexities.
STEP - 3
Create visually informative maps
illustrating predicted heatwaves,
integrating key indicators like heat
index, population density, and
household data to offer holistic
insights for decision-makers and
the public, enhancing
understanding and preparation for
extreme heat events.
 CHATBOT FOR THE REAL-TIME INFORMATION SUPPORT

After integrating the models in web application. To reach out to

root level people of Bangladesh a social media chatbot will be
implemented.

The chatbot will be designed to provide a range of disaster-related

information and assistance, including:

1. Early warning messages for disasters.

2. Real-time weather report.
3. Distance from the disaster to the user's location.
4. Disaster preparedness information.
5. Distance from the closest shelter to the user.
6. Facilitation of requests for help.
7. Information about relief providers in the user's area.
8. Connecting users with sectoral experts during disaster situations.
9. Push notification at the time of disaster
INTEGRATION OF BLOCKCHAIN FOR THE RELIEF DISTRIBUTION

The secondary offering of our platform would be

integrating fund collection feature forecasting
the anticipatory disaster in order to build more
resilient future.

The events will be created to collect target amount

funds and there will be a real-life tracking feature to
maintain optimum transparency.
 PROJECT ROADMAP

Timeline

Starting Ending
Modules February March April May June July August
Date Date

Forecasting (Flash
01 March 03 June
Flood)

Early Warning
System 01 February 28 August
(Heat Wave)

Media Chatbot 01 March 31 August

Relief Tracking
01 February 31 July
System

Define Project Scope and Objectives Feature Selection and Engineering Implementation of the Model
Conduct Preliminary Research Model Selection Deployment
Data Collection Model Development and Training Monitoring and Maintenance
Data Preprocessing Model Testing and Validation Documentation and Reporting