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SEV Group Assessment 3 - Kì Trước
SEV Group Assessment 3 - Kì Trước
SEV Group Assessment 3 - Kì Trước
Group Assignment
Bapcor Limited Valuation Report
Table of Contents
1
1. Investment Summary........................................................................................3
2. Business Description.........................................................................................3
2.1. Company Background................................................................................3
2.2. Products and Services.................................................................................4
2.3. Key drivers of revenue and expenses.........................................................4
3. Industry analysis and competitive positioning..................................................5
3.1. Industry Overview......................................................................................5
3.2. Competitive analysis................................................................................5
4. Financial analysis..............................................................................................6
4.1. Financial Performance and Profitability Ratios.........................................6
4.2. Balance Sheet and Asset Management Ratios............................................7
4.3. Long-Term Leverage Ratios & EPS...........................................................7
4.4. Liquidity Ratios..........................................................................................8
4.5. Forecast......................................................................................................8
5. Valuation............................................................................................................9
5.1. DDM.........................................................................................................10
5.2. FCFF.........................................................................................................10
6. Investment risks...............................................................................................10
6.1. Change in economic conditions...............................................................12
6.2. Competition..............................................................................................12
6.3. Information technology, people and skills...............................................12
7. Environmental, Social and Governance..........................................................12
7.1. Environmental..........................................................................................12
7.2. Social........................................................................................................13
7.3. Governance...............................................................................................13
Reference list.......................................................................................................14
APPENDIX.........................................................................................................15
Bapcor Limited
2
FIN2SEV – Valuation Report
1. Investment Summary
Figure 1: Valuation
In VALUATION 1971, Bapcor was founded in Victoria, Australia with the original
FCFF Price $4.25 name is Burson. The company is in Consumer Discretionary
Distribution & Retail industry. With more than 50 years of operating,
DDM Price $5.58
the company is Asia Pacific's leading provider of vehicle parts,
Final Price $5.05
accessories, equipment, service, and solutions. It covered the
Current Price $6.53 network of more than 1100 distributions location (Bapcor Annual
Recommendation SELL Report, 2022).
Based on the valuation below, we suggest that it is recommenced to SELL the stock. Although the
growth rate of revenue increased significantly in 2022, the net earnings declined rapidly at that time.
Besides, the liabilities growth rate reached the highest in 2022 and it makes a lesser amount for future
expenses and savings. Also, the asset turnover and liquidity ratio are not ideal ratios for the company. It
indicated a little unwell financial health of Bapcor. However, the ROE, ROA, and NOPAT ratios are doing
well at the same time. It makes the company expected to have good financial health recovery in the
future. In addition, the price estimated by DDM and FCFF method is lower than 20% compared with the
current price. So, the recommendation is SELL.
2. Business Description
2.1. Company Background
Bapcor Limited is the top supplier of automotive aftermarket parts, accessories, gear, and services in
Asia Pacific. The automotive aftermarket, which includes Trade, Retail & Service, and Specialist
Wholesale sectors, is the primary business segment for Bapcor. Bapcor Limited was founded in 1971
by Garry Johnson under the name of Burson. In 1978 the first store of Burson was opened in
Braybrook, Victoria. In the year of 2014, Burson Group Limited was listed on the Australian Stock
Exchange. The company changed its name to Bapcor Limited 2 years later in 2016.
The business earned $1,843,614,000 in total income in 2022 through sales and other sources.
Bapcor had 5,000 workers in 2022, including personnel from all of its controlled businesses. Mr. Noel
Meehan, who holds the titles of Managing Director & Chief Executive Officer, is the CEO of Bapcor.
Ms. Margaret Haseltine, whose formal title is Independent Non-Executive Chair, serves as the
Chairman of Bapcor.
3
2.2. Products and Services
Trade: It stands for the industry-focused distribution of automobile aftermarket parts to
independent and chain mechanic workshops. includes Burson Auto Parts, Precision Automotive
Equipment, and the operations situated in Thailand.
Retail: It is a representation of the Bapcor service locations as well as the retail-focused accessory
stores that are positioned as the top choice for both regular shoppers and car enthusiasts. includes
the activities of Autopro, Midas, Autobarn, ABS, and Opposite Lock.
Specialist Wholesale: It consists of the business's specialized wholesale distribution units that are
dedicated to the automobile industry. consists of the activities of the following companies: AAD,
Baxters, Bearing Wholesalers, MTQ Engine Systems, Roadsafe, Diesel Distributors, Federal Batteries,
JAS Oceania, Premier Auto Trade, Toperformance, Commercial Truck Parts group, which includes
Truckline and WANO.
NZ(Service): It encompasses the activities of HCB Technologies, Autolign, and Brake & Transmission
(BNT). Bapcor NZ offers car servicing.
2.3. Key drivers of revenue and expenses
Key drivers of revenue
Figure 2 (IBISWorld)
According to Bapcor’s Financial Statement and DatAnalysis, the Cost of Goods sold is the highest
expense of Bapcor, which is $982,466 thousands. The second highest expense is Staff And Employee
Expenses, which accounted for $392,889 thousands. Compared to the year 2021, total expense of
Bapcor was increased by more than $3Mil. The increase comes from Finance Charges. Therefore,
Bapcor’s expenses were higher than last year though there are not much changes in revenue.
4
The Automobiles & Components sector companies produce
non-electric motor components and accessories. These
businesses provide automobile manufacturers and the
aftermarket with components and accessories. The
industry also involves factory engine refurbishment on a
changeover basis, but it does not manufacture automobile
engines, car seats, windscreens, or any other element made solely of plastic or fiberglass. The
industry has been facing the ongoing fallout from Covid-19, due to supply chain difficulties; followed
by price increases for parts and raw materials. In June 2022, manufacturing input prices increased
by 17.7%, which is likely to contribute to price hikes and decreased profit margins for manufacturers
(IBISWorld, 2022). Furthermore, growing output costs are anticipated to lower downstream
customer demand and limit manufacturing activity. According to IBISWorld (2022), the revenue of
the whole industry is recorded to fall by about 0.2% from 2018 to 2023. However, it is expected to
see an increase in growth by 2028 of 1.5% (IBISWorld, 2022).
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biggest obstacle is the high start-up costs associated with acquiring technology and equipment to
serve businesses using the just-in-time supply chain framework. Besides, the industry is
considered as mature, so most of the firms in this sector have existed for a considerable period,
which leads to well-built recognition and loyalty in customers’ minds. Furthermore, tight laws
governing safety, emissions, and environmental requirements also provide difficulties for new
entrants. The evaluation of the factors that are involved in barriers to entry is shown in the figure
beside.
Considering another side, the threat of substitutes in this industry is comparatively low. Even
though public transportation and cycling can serve as replacements for private vehicles, they do not
eliminate the necessity for automobiles and their components. Furthermore, the automobile
industry's ongoing innovation, technical improvements, and client preferences for personal mobility
all contribute to the industry's continued need. The IBISWorld (2022) has stated that the number of
motor vehicles in Australia is predicted to rise about 1.9% in 2022-23, increasing the number of
customers that use industry products.
Additionally, external economic factors, such as the trade-weighted index, which measures the
value of the Australian dollar against the currencies of trading partners, also have an impact on
industry rivalry. The Australian dollar's fluctuations have a substantial influence on component and
accessory producers. A strong dollar makes local components more expensive for exports and less
competitive against imports in the domestic market, reducing demand for industry products. In
reality, the positive currency appreciation in 2022-23 is predicted to threaten industrial revenue
(IBISWorld, 2022).
The Australian automobile accessories industry is also challenged by external competition from
imports. Due to lower wage expenses, foreign competitors may often manufacture items at a lower
cost than local manufacturers. Companies based in lower-cost nations, such as China and Thailand,
have squeezed the profit margins of domestic manufacturers who compete on price by offering
equivalent products at lower prices. Furthermore, their proximity to vehicle manufacturers allows
them to benefit from lower logistics costs when compared to local enterprises.
4. Financial analysis
4.1. Financial Performance and Profitability Ratios
Bapcor Ltd has a positive growth of revenue from 2018 to 2022 (Figure 5). The rate of growth
decreased significantly from 22.01% to 4.84% in 2019 because Australia's automotive sector is the
latest sufferer of declining consumer spending and stricter lending (Reuters, 2019). Brocklehurst
(2021) stated that earnings growth was driven by demand in the core BAP.
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increasing home-brand sales. Therefore, the growth rate raised quite rapidly in 2020 - 2021.
However, it declined again from 20.44% to 4.55%
(Appendix 1)
On the other hand, the net profit after tax has an increasing trend except in 2020 (Figure 6). It may
be due to the increase in the company's operating expenses since the impact of COVID-19 in 2020.
After that, the net profit after tax significantly increased again, proving that the company has
adjusted its operation more efficiently. In addition, the ROA, ROE, and net profit margin had a
similar growth rate in 2018- 2019 and declined together in 2020. It could be due to the influence
of the pandemic. After 2020, the three ratios will also rise .faster and more stable in 2022.
(Appendix 2).
7
in the five years average being close to 2. Two years had this ratio of more than 2 but it is not
concerned. It means that the firm has enough capacity to pay off the debts and shortterm
obligations with its current assets. Besides, the BAP’s quick ratio is always below 1 and greater than
0.5 in recent years. This is a not good quick ratio for the firm. In short, two ratios indicate that the
company has not stable liquidity and good financial health.
4.5. Forecast
Figure 9
Operating
Revenue 1,989,257,400 2,148,397,992 2,320,269,831 2,505,891,418 2,706,362,731
8
It is assumed that the total assets and the total liabilities will increase by 7% and 8% annually on
average over the next 5 years. This is based on the historical performance of the company in the past.
The total assets and liabilities had growing trends in the past 5 years with an average growth rate of
8.8% and 11.5%. The positive look in the growth rate forecast is also due to the network expansion
of Bapcor in the future and other on-plan operation activities such as brand sales penetration, or
commercial automobile company by acquiring other commercial vehicle groups.
Net Operating
Cash Flow 100,578,000 110,474,000 117,483,000 120,757,000 122,473,000
Net Investing
Cash Flow -60,384,000 -52,584,000 -48,837,000 40,847,000 43,657,000
Net Financing
Cash Flow -9,847,000 -11,278,000 13,748,000 -32,847,000 647,000
Interest Paid -7,233,000 -6,455,000 -6,038,000 -5,375,000 -4,793,000
EPS 41,860,800 45,210,000 48,826,000 52,732,000 56,901,000
The net operating cash flow is assumed to be on a growing trend over the years due to its stable
increase in the past. In contrast, net financing cash flow is predicted to widely fluctuate because of
the financial operation of the company in the future. The net investing cash flow is predicted to have
negative figures from 2023 to 2025 and in the recovery trend to 2027, with about 43 mils of cash
flow. These assumptions are based on the company’s investment in developing new products and
technology programs in the near years. The company may suffer more out cash flow than inflow and
then obtain the profit from those investments in 2026 and 2027. The interest paid is expected to
decrease due to the downtrend in recent years. The EPS is expected to rise at 8% with positive
expectations of the company’s profit in the next 5 years.
5. Valuation
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is used to calculate the required rate of return for valuation.
The Australian 10-year bond rate of 3.39% was used as the risk-free rate in this research. BAP has a
beta value of 0.9. Furthermore, in Australia, the market risk premium is fixed at 5.94%. We
calculated the cost of equity as 8.74% by using the formula Required Rate of Return = Risk-Free Rate
of Return + (Beta) x (Market Risk Premium).
5.1. DDM
Based on the above-mentioned analysis, we have a positive outlook for BAP. The dividend per share
growth rate has fluctuated significantly in recent years. As a result, dividend growth is expected to
average 10.5% over the next five years as additional consumers become accessible. However, as
more traders enter the market, industry competition will increase. Taking this into account, we
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expect that dividend growth will be less than 10.5% in the first five years, resulting in a sustainable
growth rate of 8%.
($) 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027
Dividends (DPS) 23.76 26.25 29.01 32.05 35.42
PV of Dividends (DPS) 21.85 22.2 22.56 22.93 23.3
Re 8.74%
Total 1442.48
Recommendation SELL
5.2. FCFF
Cost of Debt =
10
(Because min borrowing cost >= Risk-free rate due to government borrow less than firm borrow
Cost of Debt = Risk-free = 3.39%)
WACC =
Firm Value =
Price valuation
(We assume that the growth rate is 3%)
5.3. Multiples Valuation
The multiples valuation model involves calculating some ratios and comparing them to a benchmark
to determine if a firm is overvalued or undervalued. Three firms in the same industry as Bapcor -
ARB, AMA, and GUD, were chosen. The benchmark calculated the average price multiples of these
three companies and comparing them to Bapcor's pricing multiples.
Recommendation SELL
We can conclude from the ratios discussed above that Bapcor has been undervalued, hence the
suggestion is SELL.
Final Valuation: It can see that the dividend per share index in the table above is irregular.
Consequently, we assume that the weight of FCFF is more than DDM model.
Model Weight Price valuation Price value weighted Final price valuation
DDM 40% 4.25 1.7 5.05
FCFF 60% 5.58 3.35
RECOMMENDATION: SELL
6. Investment risks
Bapcor is dedicated to preserving and developing systems and procedures for identifying and
successfully managing risk. The following are some of the main risks that Bapcor is exposed to, and
which might materially affect its financial outlook:
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6.1. Change in economic conditions
The demand for Bapcor's goods and services might be impacted by any deterioration in the global
economy or in the markets where Bapcor conducts business. Geopolitical instability as well as other
threats to the entire economy, such the reliability of the energy supply, can cause economic
downturns. Indirect effects of changing economic conditions include things like higher gasoline
prices, which may result in less driving.
6.2. Competition
The markets and sectors that Bapcor serves are competitive, and as a result, Bapcor may see
heightened competition from current rivals, new entrants, car manufacturers, and emerging
innovations or technical advancements in automobiles or their components. Increased competition
may negatively impact Bapcor's financial results, competitive position, and future prospects.
Information technology platforms are essential to Bapcor's commercial operations. The customer
experience, the continuity of operations, and the security of data might all be negatively impacted
by weaknesses in information technology operations, including unscheduled downtime or system
breakdowns. Since Bapcor is a very customer-focused company, its team members and senior
management are crucial to upholding the operational level of service to its clients and carrying out
Bapcor's strategy. The capacity to recruit and retain team members becomes even more crucial in
environments with high employment rates and a lack of particular skill sets.
7.1. Environmental
Bapcor Limited has invested significant effort in sustainability in the past, showing their attention
towards sustainability and environmental problems. They are planting over 40,000 native trees per
year. Bapcor also renewed their commitment offsets another 6,400 tonnes of carbon emissions
(Bapcor Annual Report,2021). Their efforts, time, and money investing in the environment is
applaudable and admirable.
Bapcor Limited does not produce their own goods; instead, they buy them from suppliers in the
USA, Japan, Taiwan, Germany, Australia, and China. Their focus is on the environmental and social
effects of moving their products across the supply chain due to Bapcor's business strategy. The other
12
crucial area of attention is product procurement, and they collaborate with several of their
suppliers, such as GUD, NGK, KYB, and Bosch, to make sure that they adhere to their standards for
ethical sourcing.
7.2. Social
Any team member of Bapcor can get outside counseling through Bapcor's Employee Assistance
Program ("EAP"). The Covid epidemic and governmental lockdowns have had a substantial impact
on the utilization of this discreet service during the past 18 months.
7.3. Governance
Corporate Governance is core to ensuring the creation, protection, and enhancement of value
within Bapcor Limited. They have released several policies to uphold their value and core of
conduct. They are encouraging of a diverse and welcoming workplace. For example: Workplace
Gender Equality Agency, Competition Compliance policy, etc (Bapcor). They also set four objectives
as the act to practice good governance. These objectives are focused on gender diversity, this
included bringing together senior female leaders from a range of businesses and locations to
network, share, contribute ideas to inform their creation of a Women’s Leadership Development
Program to be rolled out.
Reference list
Bapcor 2021, Annual Report 2021.
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Bapcor - About - Governance n.d., www.bapcor.com.au, viewed 30 May 2023,
<https://www.bapcor.com.au/governance>.
Brocklehurst, E 2021, Bapcor Steering Earnings Growth Beyond FY21, ShareCafe, viewed 30
May 2023, <https://www.sharecafe.com.au/2021/04/21/bapcor-steering-earnings-
growthbeyond-fy21/>.
Kartik Jeswanth, D 2022, Motor Vehicle Parts and Accessories Manufacturing in Australia,
IBISWorld.
Tran, J 2022, What is a good inventory turnover ratio for retail?, World’s #1 POS for Magento.
Westbrook, T 2019, ‘Australia’s auto sector suffers earnings hit as consumer spending slows’,
Reuters, 13 February, viewed 30 May 2023,
<https://www.reuters.com/article/australiaautos-consumers-idUSL3N208067>.
APPENDIX
Appendix 1
14
Appendix 2
Appendix 3 Appendix 4
Appendix 5
Appendix 6
15
Appendix 7
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Operating Revenue 1,236,681,000 1,296,582,000 1,462,747,000 1,761,673,000 1,841,905,000
EBIT 132,188,000 146,805,000 132,364,000 190,948,000 203,686,000
Net Profit after Tax 85,081,000 93,411,000 80,144,000 119,938,000 131,823,000
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