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Available in MyStatLab™ for Your
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Applet Concept Illustrated
Standard deviation Investigates how distribution shape and
spread affect standard deviation.
Confidence intervals Not all confidence intervals contain the
for a proportion population proportion. Investigates the
meaning of 95% and 99% confidence.
Confidence intervals Not all confidence intervals contain the
for a mean (the population mean. Investigates the meaning
impact of confidence of 95% and 99% confidence.
level)
Confidence intervals Confidence intervals obtained using the
for a mean (not sample standard deviation are different
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Hypothesis tests for Not all tests of hypotheses lead correctly to
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Regression by eye The least squares regression line has a
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approximate a set of bivariate data. Teaches
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a regression line on a scattergram.
Description Applet Activity
Students visualize relationship between mean 2.4, 68; 2.5, 69; 2.6, 69; 2.7, 91
and standard deviation by adding and deleting
data points; applet updates mean and standard
deviation.
Simulates selecting 100 random samples from 7.5, 341; 7.6, 342
the population and finds the 95% and 99%
confidence intervals for each. Students specify
population proportion and sample size; applet
plots confidence intervals and reports number
and proportion containing true proportion.
Simulates selecting 100 random samples from 7.1, 323; 7.2, 323
population; finds 95% and 99% confidence
intervals for each. Students specify sample
size, distribution shape, and population
mean and standard deviation; applet plots
confidence intervals and reports number and
proportion containing true mean.
Simulates selecting 100 random samples from 7.3, 333; 7.4, 333
the population and finds the 95% z-interval
and 95% t-interval for each. Students specify
sample size, distribution shape, and population
mean and standard deviation; applet plots
confidence intervals and reports number and
proportion containing true mean.
Simulates selecting 100 random samples from 8.5, 389; 8.6, 406
population; calculates and plots z-statistic and
P-value for each. Students specify population
proportion, sample size, and null and
alternative hypotheses; applet reports number
and proportion of times null hypothesis is
rejected at 0.05 and 0.01 levels.
Simulates selecting 100 random samples from 8.1, 379; 8.2, 389; 8.3, 389;
population; calculates and plots t statistic and 8.4, 389
P-value for each. Students specify population
distribution shape, mean, and standard
deviation; sample size, and null and alternative
hypotheses; applet reports number and
proportion of times null hypothesis is rejected
at both 0.05 and 0.01 levels.
Computes correlation coefficient r for a set 11.2, 624
of bivariate data plotted on a scattergram.
Students add or delete points and guess value
of r; applet compares guess to calculated value.
Computes least squares regression line for a 11.1, 597
set of bivariate data plotted on a scattergram.
Students add or delete points and guess
location of regression line by manipulating a
line provided on the scattergram; applet plots
least squares line and displays the equations
and the SSEs for both lines.
This page intentionally left blank
This page intentionally left blank
 ThirTeenTh ediTion

James T. McClave Terry Sincich

Info Tech, Inc. University of South Florida

University of Florida

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McClave, James T.
Statistics / James T. McClave, Info Tech, Inc., University of Florida, Terry Sincich, University of South
Florida.—Thirteenth edition.
pages cm
Includes index.
ISBN 978-0-13-408021-5—ISBN 0-13-408021-1
1. Statistics. I. Sincich, Terry. II. Title.
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2015006437

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 Contents
Preface xiii
Applications Index xxi

Chapter 1 Statistics, data, and Statistical Thinking 1

1.1 The Science of Statistics 2
1.2 Types of Statistical Applications 3
1.3 Fundamental Elements of Statistics 5
1.4 Types of Data 9
1.5 Collecting Data: Sampling and Related Issues 11
1.6 The Role of Statistics in Critical Thinking and Ethics 16
Statistics in Action: Social Media Network Usage—Are You Linked In? 2
Using Technology: MINITAB: Accessing and Listing Data 25

Chapter 2 Methods for describing Sets of data 29

2.1 Describing Qualitative Data 31
2.2 Graphical Methods for Describing Quantitative Data 42
2.3 Numerical Measures of Central Tendency 54
2.4 Numerical Measures of Variability 65
2.5 Using the Mean and Standard Deviation to Describe Data 71
2.6 Numerical Measures of Relative Standing 79
2.7 Methods for Detecting Outliers: Box Plots and z-Scores 83
2.8 Graphing Bivariate Relationships (Optional) 93
2.9 Distorting the Truth with Descriptive Statistics 98
Statistics in Action: Body Image Dissatisfaction: Real or Imagined? 30
Using Technology: MINITAB: Describing Data 114
TI-83/TI–84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Describing Data 114

Chapter 3 Probability 117

3.1 Events, Sample Spaces, and Probability 119
3.2 Unions and Intersections 132
3.3 Complementary Events 135
3.4 The Additive Rule and Mutually Exclusive Events 137
3.5 Conditional Probability 144
3.6 The Multiplicative Rule and Independent Events 147

vii
viii Contents

3.7 Some Additional Counting Rules (Optional) 159

3.8 Bayes’s Rule (Optional) 169
Statistics in Action: Lotto Buster! Can You Improve Your Chance of Winning? 118
Using Technology: TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Combinations and Permutations 183

Chapter 4 discrete random Variables 184

4.1 Two Types of Random Variables 186
4.2 Probability Distributions for Discrete Random Variables 189
4.3 Expected Values of Discrete Random Variables 196
4.4 The Binomial Random Variable 201
4.5 The Poisson Random Variable (Optional) 214
4.6 The Hypergeometric Random Variable (Optional) 219
Statistics in Action: Probability in a Reverse Cocaine Sting: Was Cocaine Really Sold? 185
Using Technology: MINITAB: Discrete Probabilities 229
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Discrete Random Variables and Probabilities 229

Chapter 5 Continuous random Variables 232

5.1 Continuous Probability Distributions 234
5.2 The Uniform Distribution 235
5.3 The Normal Distribution 239
5.4 Descriptive Methods for Assessing Normality 253
5.5 Approximating a Binomial Distribution with a Normal Distribution
(Optional) 262
5.6 The Exponential Distribution (Optional) 267
Statistics in Action: Super Weapons Development—Is the Hit Ratio Optimized? 233
Using Technology: MINITAB: Continuous Random Variable Probabilities and Normal
Probability Plots 279
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Normal Random Variable and Normal
Probability Plots 280

Chapter 6 Sampling distributions 282

6.1 The Concept of a Sampling Distribution 284
6.2 Properties of Sampling Distributions: Unbiasedness and Minimum
Variance 291
6.3 The Sampling Distribution of xQ and the Central Limit Theorem 295
6.4 The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Proportion 304
Statistics in Action: The Insomnia Pill: Is It Effective? 283
Using Technology: MINITAB: Simulating a Sampling Distribution 313
 Contents ix

inferences Based on a Single Sample:

Chapter 7 estimation with Confidence intervals 314
7.1 Identifying and Estimating the Target Parameter 315
7.2 Confidence Interval for a Population Mean: Normal (z) Statistic 317
7.3 Confidence Interval for a Population Mean: Student’s t-Statistic 327
7.4 Large-Sample Confidence Interval for a Population Proportion 337
7.5 Determining the Sample Size 344
7.6 Confidence Interval for a Population Variance (Optional) 351
Statistics in Action: Medicare Fraud Investigations 315
Using Technology: MINITAB: Confidence Intervals 364
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Confidence Intervals 366

inferences Based on a Single Sample:

Chapter 8 Tests of hypothesis 368
8.1 The Elements of a Test of Hypothesis 369
8.2 Formulating Hypotheses and Setting Up the Rejection Region 375
8.3 Observed Significance Levels: p-Values 380
8.4 Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean: Normal (z) Statistic 385
8.5 Test of Hypothesis about a Population Mean: Student’s t-Statistic 393
8.6 Large-Sample Test of Hypothesis about a Population Proportion 400
8.7 Calculating Type II Error Probabilities: More about b (Optional) 408
8.8 Test of Hypothesis about a Population Variance (Optional) 417
®
Statistics in Action: Diary of a KLEENEX User—How Many Tissues in a Box? 369
Using Technology: MINITAB: Tests of Hypotheses 430
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Tests of Hypotheses 431

inferences Based on Two Samples: Confidence

Chapter 9 intervals and Tests of hypotheses 433
9.1 Identifying the Target Parameter 434
9.2 Comparing Two Population Means: Independent Sampling 435
9.3 Comparing Two Population Means: Paired Difference Experiments 453
9.4 Comparing Two Population Proportions: Independent Sampling 465
9.5 Determining the Sample Size 473
9.6 Comparing Two Population Variances: Independent Sampling (Optional) 478
Statistics in Action: ZixIt Corp. v. Visa USA Inc.—A Libel Case 434
Using Technology: MINITAB: Two-Sample Inferences 497
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Two Sample Inferences 498
x Contents

Chapter 10 Analysis of Variance: Comparing More than Two Means 502

10.1 Elements of a Designed Study 504
10.2 The Completely Randomized Design: Single Factor 511
10.3 Multiple Comparisons of Means 528
10.4 The Randomized Block Design 536
10.5 Factorial Experiments: Two Factors 554
Statistics in Action: Voice versus Face Recognition—Does One Follow the Other? 503
Using Technology: MINITAB: Analysis of Variance 582
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Analysis of Variance 583

Chapter 11 Simple Linear regression 584

11.1 Probabilistic Models 586
11.2 Fitting the Model: The Least Squares Approach 590
11.3 Model Assumptions 603
11.4 Assessing the Utility of the Model: Making Inferences about the Slope b1 608
11.5 The Coefficients of Correlation and Determination 617
11.6 Using the Model for Estimation and Prediction 627
11.7 A Complete Example 636
Statistics in Action: Can “Dowsers” Really Detect Water? 585
Using Technology: MINITAB: Simple Linear Regression 650
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Simple Linear Regression 651

Chapter 12 Multiple regression and Model Building 653

12.1 Multiple-Regression Models 655
PART I: First-Order Models with Quantitative Independent Variables
12.2 Estimating and Making Inferences about the b Parameters 657
12.3 Evaluating Overall Model Utility 664
12.4 Using the Model for Estimation and Prediction 675
PART II: Model Building in Multiple Regression
12.5 Interaction Models 681
12.6 Quadratic and Other Higher Order Models 688
12.7 Qualitative (Dummy) Variable Models 698
12.8 Models with Both Quantitative and Qualitative Variables (Optional) 706
12.9 Comparing Nested Models (Optional) 716
12.10 Stepwise Regression (Optional) 726
PART III: Multiple Regression Diagnostics
12.11 Residual Analysis: Checking the Regression Assumptions 732
12.12 Some Pitfalls: Estimability, Multicollinearity, and Extrapolation 746
Statistics in Action: Modeling Condominium Sales: What Factors Affect Auction Price? 654
Using Technology: MINITAB: Multiple Regression 768
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Multiple Regression 769
 Contents xi

Chapter 13 Categorical data Analysis 771

13.1 Categorical Data and the Multinomial Experiment 773
13.2 Testing Categorical Probabilities: One-Way Table 774
13.3 Testing Categorical Probabilities: Two-Way (Contingency) Table 782
13.4 A Word of Caution about Chi-Square Tests 797
Statistics in Action: The Case of the Ghoulish Transplant Tissue 772
Using Technology: MINITAB: Chi-Square Analyses 807
TI-83/TI-84 Plus Graphing Calculator: Chi-Square Analyses 808

Chapter 14 nonparametric Statistics (available online) 14-1

14.1 Introduction: Distribution-Free Tests 14-2
14.2 Single-Population Inferences 14-4
14.3 Comparing Two Populations: Independent Samples 14-10
14.4 Comparing Two Populations: Paired Difference Experiment 14-24
14.5 Comparing Three or More Populations: Completely Randomized
Design 14-33
14.6 Comparing Three or More Populations: Randomized Block Design 14-41
14.7 Rank Correlation 14-48
Statistics in Action: Pollutants at a Housing Development: A Case of Mishandling
Small Samples 14-2
Using Technology: MINITAB: Nonparametric Tests 14-65

Appendices
Appendix A Summation Notation 809

Appendix B Tables 811

Table I Binomial Probabilities 812
Table II Normal Curve Areas 816
Table III Critical Values of t 817
2
Table IV Critical Values of x 818
Table V Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .10 820
Table VI Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .05 822
Table VII Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .025 824
Table VIII Percentage Points of the F-Distribution, a = .01 826
Table IX Critical Values of TL and TU for the Wilcoxon Rank Sum Test:
Independent Samples 828
Table X Critical Values of T0 in the Wilcoxon Paired Difference
Signed Rank Test 829
xii Contents

Table XI Critical Values of Spearman’s Rank Correlation Coefficient 830

Table XII Critical Values of the Studentized Range, a = .05 831
Table XIII Critical Values of the Studentized Range, a = .01 832

Appendix C Calculation Formulas for Analysis of Variance 833

Short Answers to Selected Odd-Numbered Exercises 838

Index 850

Photo Credits 856

 Preface
This 13th edition of Statistics is an introductory text emphasizing inference, with
extensive coverage of data collection and analysis as needed to evaluate the reported
results of statistical studies and make good decisions. As in earlier editions, the text
stresses the development of statistical thinking, the assessment of credibility, and the
value of the inferences made from data, both by those who consume and those who pro-
duce them. It assumes a mathematical background of basic algebra.
The text incorporates the following features, developed from the American
Statistical Association’s (ASA) Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics
Education (GAISE) Project:
• Emphasize statistical literacy and develop statistical thinking
• Use real data in applications
• Use technology for developing conceptual understanding and analyzing data
• Foster active learning in the classroom
• Stress conceptual understanding rather than mere knowledge of procedures
• Emphasize intuitive concepts of probability
A briefer version of the book, A First Course in Statistics, is available for single
semester courses that include minimal coverage of regression analysis, analysis of vari-
ance, and categorical data analysis.

new in the 13th edition

• Over 2,000 exercises, with revisions and updates to 25%. Many new and
updated exercises, based on contemporary studies and real data, have been added.
Most of these exercises foster and promote critical thinking skills.
• Updated technology. All printouts from statistical software (SAS, SPSS,
MINITAB, and the TI-83/Tl-84 Plus Graphing Calculator) and corresponding in-
structions for use have been revised to reflect the latest versions of the software.
• New Statistics in Action Cases. Six of the 14 Statistics in Action cases are new or
updated, each based on real data from a recent study.
• Continued emphasis on Ethics. Where appropriate, boxes have been added
emphasizing the importance of ethical behavior when collecting, analyzing, and
interpreting data with statistics.
• Data Informed Development. The authors analyzed aggregated student usage
and performance data from MyStatLab for the previous edition of this text. The
results of this analysis helped improve the quality and quantity of exercises that
matter most to instructors and students.

Content-Specific Changes to This edition

• Chapter 1 (Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking). Material on all basic sam-
pling concepts (e.g., random sampling and sample survey designs) has been stream-
lined and moved to Section 1.5 (Collecting Data: Sampling and Related Issues).
• Chapter 2 (Methods for Describing Sets of Data). The section on summation
notation has been moved to the appendix (Appendix A). Also, recent examples
of misleading graphics have been added to Section 2.9 (Distorting the Truth with
Descriptive Statistics).

xiii
xiv prefaCe

• Chapter 4 (Discrete Random Variables) and Chapter 5 (Continuous Random

Variables). Use of technology for computing probabilities of random variables
with known probability distributions (e.g., binomial, Poisson, normal, and exponen-
tial distributions) has been incorporated into the relevant sections of these chapters.
This reduces the use of tables of probabilities for these distributions.
• Chapter 6 (Sampling Distributions). In addition to the sampling distribution of
the sample mean, we now cover (in new Section 6.4) the sampling distribution of a
sample proportion.
• Chapter 8 (Inferences Based on a Single Sample: Tests of Hypothesis). The
section on p-values in hypothesis testing (Section 8.3) has been moved up to
emphasize the importance of their use in real-life studies. Throughout the remain-
der of the text, conclusions from a test of hypothesis are based on p-values.

hallmark Strengths
We have maintained the pedagogical features of Statistics that we believe make it
unique among introductory statistics texts. These features, which assist the student in
achieving an overview of statistics and an understanding of its relevance in both the
business world and everyday life, are as follows:
• Use of Examples as a Teaching Device—Almost all new ideas are introduced
and illustrated by data-based applications and examples. We believe that stu-
dents better understand definitions, generalizations, and theoretical concepts
after seeing an application. All examples have three components: (1) “Problem,”
(2) “Solution,” and (3) “Look Back” (or “Look Ahead”). This step-by-step process
provides students with a defined structure by which to approach problems and
enhances their problem-solving skills. The “Look Back” feature often gives helpful
hints to solving the problem and/or provides a further reflection or insight into the
concept or procedure that is covered.
• Now Work—A “Now Work” exercise suggestion follows each example. The Now
Work exercise (marked with the icon in the exercise sets) is similar in style and
concept to the text example. This provides the students with an opportunity to im-
mediately test and confirm their understanding.
• Statistics in Action—Each chapter begins with a case study based on an actual
contemporary, controversial, or high-profile issue. Relevant research questions and
data from the study are presented and the proper analysis demonstrated in short
“Statistics in Action Revisited” sections throughout the chapter. These motivate
students to critically evaluate the findings and think through the statistical issues
involved.
• Applet Exercises —The text is accompanied by applets (short computer programs)
available at www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources and within MyStatLab.
These point-and-click applets allow students to easily run simulations that visually
demonstrate some of the more difficult statistical concepts (e.g., sampling distribu-
tions and confidence intervals). Each chapter contains several optional applet exer-
cises in the exercise sets. They are denoted with the following icon: .
• Real Data-Based Exercises —The text includes more than 2,000 exercises based
on applications in a variety of disciplines and research areas. All the applied exer-
cises employ the use of current real data extracted from current publications (e.g.,
newspapers, magazines, current journals, and the Internet). Some students have
difficulty learning the mechanics of statistical techniques when all problems are
couched in terms of realistic applications. For this reason, all exercise sections are
divided into four parts:
Learning the Mechanics. Designed as straightforward applications of new
concepts, these exercises allow students to test their abilities to comprehend a
mathematical concept or a definition.
 prefaCe xv

Applying the Concepts—Basic. Based on applications taken from a wide

variety of journals, newspapers, and other sources, these short exercises help
students to begin developing the skills necessary to diagnose and analyze
real-world problems.
Applying the Concepts—Intermediate. Based on more detailed real-world
applications, these exercises require students to apply their knowledge of the
technique presented in the section.
Applying the Concepts—Advanced. These more difficult real-data exercises
require students to use their critical thinking skills.
• Critical Thinking Challenges—Placed at the end of the “Supplementary
Exercises” sections only, students are asked to apply their critical thinking skills to
solve one or two challenging real-life problems. These exercises expose students to
real-world problems with solutions that are derived from careful, logical thought
and selection of the appropriate statistical analysis tool.
• Exploring Data with Statistical Computer Software and the Graphing
Calculator—Each statistical analysis method presented is demonstrated using
output from three leading Windows-based statistical software packages: SAS, SPSS,
and MINITAB. Students are exposed early and often to computer printouts they
will encounter in today’s high-tech world.
• “Using Technology” Tutorials—MINITAB software tutorials appear at the end
of each chapter and include point-and-click instructions (with screen shots). These
tutorials are easily located and show students how to best use and maximize
MINITAB statistical software. In addition, output and keystroke instructions for
the TI-83/Tl-84 Plus Graphing Calculator are presented.
• Profiles of Statisticians in History (Biography)—Brief descriptions of famous
statisticians and their achievements are presented in side boxes. With these profiles,
students will develop an appreciation of the statistician’s efforts and the discipline
of statistics as a whole.
• Data and Applets—The Web site www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources
has files for all the data sets marked with the data set icon in the text. These
include data sets for text examples, exercises, Statistics in Action, and Real-World
cases. All data files are saved in three different formats: SAS, MINITAB, and SPSS.
This site also contains the applets that are used to illustrate statistical concepts.

Flexibility in Coverage
The text is written to allow the instructor flexibility in coverage of topics. Suggestions
for two topics, probability and regression, are given below.
• Probability and Counting Rules—One of the most troublesome aspects of an in-
troductory statistics course is the study of probability. Probability poses a challenge
for instructors because they must decide on the level of presentation, and students
find it a difficult subject to comprehend. We believe that one cause for these prob-
lems is the mixture of probability and counting rules that occurs in most introduc-
tory texts. Consequently, we have included the counting rules (with examples) in an
optional section (Section 3.7) of Chapter 3. Thus, the instructor can control the level
of probability coverage.
• Multiple Regression and Model Building—This topic represents one of the most
useful statistical tools for the solution of applied problems. Although an entire text
could be devoted to regression modeling, we feel that we have presented coverage
that is understandable, usable, and much more comprehensive than the presenta-
tions in other introductory statistics texts. We devote two full chapters to discuss-
ing the major types of inferences that can be derived from a regression analysis,
showing how these results appear in the output from statistical software, and, most
important, selecting multiple regression models to be used in an analysis. Thus,
xvi prefaCe

the instructor has the choice of one-chapter coverage of simple linear regression
(Chapter 11), a two-chapter treatment of simple and multiple regression (excluding
the sections on model building in Chapter 12), or complete coverage of regression
analysis, including model building and regression diagnostics. This extensive cover-
age of such useful statistical tools will provide added evidence to the student of the
relevance of statistics to real-world problems.
• Role of Calculus in Footnotes—Although the text is designed for students with
a non-calculus background, footnotes explain the role of calculus in various der-
ivations. Footnotes are also used to inform the student about some of the theory
underlying certain methods of analysis. These footnotes allow additional flexibility
in the mathematical and theoretical level at which the material is presented.
Get the most out of
MyStatLab
™

MyStatLab is the world’s leading online resource for teaching and learning statistics.
MyStatLab helps students and instructors improve results, and provides engaging
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Resources for Success
Student Resources
Student’s Solutions Manual, by Nancy Boudreau (Emeritus
Associate Professor, Bowling Green State University), includes
complete worked-out solutions to all odd-numbered text exer-
cises (ISBN-13: 978-0-13-408112-0, ISBN-10: 0-13-408112-9.
Excel ® Manual (download only), by Mark Dummeldinger
(University of South Florida). Available for download from
www.pearsonhighered.com/mathstatsresources.
Study Cards for Statistics Software. This series of study cards,
available for Excel®, MINITAB, JMP ®, SPSS, R, StatCrunch®, and
TI-83/84 Plus Graphing Calculators, provides students with easy
step-by-step guides to the most common statistics software.
Visit myPearsonstore.com for more information.
Instructor Resources
Annotated Instructor’s Edition contains answers to text
exercises. Annotated marginal notes include Teaching Tips, sug-
gested exercises to reinforce the statistical concepts discussed
in the text, and short answers to exercises and examples
(ISBN-13: 978-0-13-408026-0; ISBN-10: 0-13-408026-2).
Instructor’s Solutions Manual (download only), by Nancy
Boudreau (Emeritus Associate Professor Bowling Green State
University), includes complete worked-out solutions to all
even-numbered text exercises. Careful attention has been paid
to ensure that all methods of solution and notation are consis-
tent with those used in the core text.
www.mystatlab.com
PowerPoint ® Lecture Slides include figures and tables from
the textbook. Available for download from Pearson’s online
catalog at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc and in MyStatLab.
TestGen® (www.pearsoned.com/testgen) enables instructors
to build, edit, print, and administer tests using a computerized
bank of questions developed to cover all the objectives of
the text. TestGen is algorithmically based, allowing instructors
to create multiple but equivalent versions of the same ques-
tion or test with the click of a button. Instructors can also
modify test bank questions or add new questions. The soft-
ware and test bank are available for download from Pearson
Education’s online catalog at www.pearsonhighered.com/irc
and in MyStatLab.
Online Test Bank, a test bank derived from TestGen®,
is available for download from Pearson’s online catalog at
www.pearsonhighered.com/irc and in MyStatLab.
Technology Resources
A companion website (www.pearsonhighered.com/
mathstatsresources) holds a number of support materials,
including:
• Data sets formatted as .csv, .txt, .sas7bdat (SAS), .sav
(SPSS), .mtp (minitab), .xls (Excel), and TI files
• Applets (short computer programs) that allow students to
run simulations that visually demonstrate statistical concepts
• Chapter 14: Nonparametric Statistics
 prefaCe xix

Acknowledgments
This book reflects the efforts of a great many people over a number of years. First, we
would like to thank the following professors, whose reviews and comments on this and
prior editions have contributed to the 13th edition:

Reviewers Involved with the 13th Edition of Statistics

Sarol Aryal, Montana State University—Billings
Maggie McBride, Montana State University—Billings
Mehdi Razzaghi, Bloomsburg University
Kamel Rekab, University of Missouri—Kansas City
Jim Schott, University of Central Florida
Susan Schott, University of Central Florida
Dong Zhang, Bloomsburg University

Reviewers of Previous Editions

Bill Adamson, South Dakota State; Ibrahim Ahmad, Northern Illinois University;
Roddy Akbari, Guilford Technical Community College; Ali Arab, Georgetown
University; David Atkinson, Olivet Nazarene University; Mary Sue Beersman,
Northeast Missouri State University; William H. Beyer, University of Akron;
Marvin Bishop, Manhattan College; Patricia M. Buchanan, Pennsylvania State
University; Dean S. Burbank, Gulf Coast Community College; Ann Cascarelle,
St. Petersburg College; Jen Case, Jacksonville State University; Kathryn Chaloner,
University of Minnesota; Hanfeng Chen, Bowling Green State University; Gerardo
Chin-Leo, The Evergreen State College; Linda Brant Collins, Iowa State University;
Brant Deppa, Winona State University; John Dirkse, California State University—
Bakersfield; N. B. Ebrahimi, Northern Illinois University; John Egenolf, University
of Alaska—Anchorage; Dale Everson, University of Idaho; Christine Franklin,
University of Georgia; Khadiga Gamgoum, Northern Virginia Community
College; Rudy Gideon, University of Montana; Victoria Marie Gribshaw, Seton
Hill College; Larry Griffey, Florida Community College; David Groggel, Miami
University at Oxford; John E. Groves, California Polytechnic State University—San
Luis Obispo; Sneh Gulati, Florida International University; Dale K. Hathaway,
Olivet Nazarene University; Shu-ping Hodgson, Central Michigan University; Jean
L. Holton, Virginia Commonwealth University; Soon Hong, Grand Valley State
University; Ina Parks S. Howell, Florida International University; Gary Itzkowitz,
Rowan College of New Jersey; John H. Kellermeier, State University College at
Plattsburgh; Golan Kibria, Florida International University; Timothy J. Killeen,
University of Connecticut; William G. Koellner, Montclair State University; James
R. Lackritz, San Diego State University; Diane Lambert, AT&T/Bell Laboratories;
Edwin G. Landauer, Clackamas Community College; James Lang, Valencia Junior
College; Glenn Larson, University of Regina; John J. Lefante, Jr., University of
South Alabama; Pi-Erh Lin, Florida State University; R. Bruce Lind, University
of Puget Sound; Rhonda Magel, North Dakota State University; Linda C. Malone,
University of Central Florida; Allen E. Martin, California State University—Los
Angeles; Rick Martinez, Foothill College; Brenda Masters, Oklahoma State
University; Leslie Matekaitis, Cal Genetics; Maggie McBride, Montana State
University—Billings; E. Donice McCune, Stephen F. Austin State University; Mark
M. Meerschaert, University of Nevada—Reno; Greg Miller, Stephen F. Austin
State University; Satya Narayan Mishra, University of South Alabama; Kazemi
Mohammed, University of North Carolina—Charlotte; Christopher Morrell,
Loyola College in Maryland; Mir Mortazavi, Eastern New Mexico University;
A. Mukherjea, University of South Florida; Steve Nimmo, Morningside College
(Iowa); Susan Nolan, Seton Hall University; Thomas O’Gorman, Northern Illinois
University; Bernard Ostle, University of Central Florida; William B. Owen, Central
Washington University; Won J. Park, Wright State University; John J. Peterson,
Smith Kline & French Laboratories; Ronald Pierce, Eastern Kentucky University;
xx prefaCe

Surajit Ray, Boston University; Betty Rehfuss, North Dakota State University—
Bottineau; Andrew Rosalsky, University of Florida; C. Bradley Russell, Clemson
University; Rita Schillaber, University of Alberta; Jim Schott, University of
Central Florida; Susan C. Schott, University of Central Florida; George Schultz,
St. Petersburg Junior College; Carl James Schwarz, University of Manitoba; Mike
Seyfried, Shippensburg University; Arvind K. Shah, University of South Alabama;
Lewis Shoemaker, Millersville University; Sean Simpson, Westchester Community
College; Charles W. Sinclair, Portland State University; Robert K. Smidt, California
Polytechnic State University—San Luis Obispo; Vasanth B. Solomon, Drake
University; W. Robert Stephenson, Iowa State University; Engin Sungur, University
of Minnesota—Morris; Thaddeus Tarpey, Wright State University; Kathy Taylor,
Clackamas Community College; Sherwin Toribio, University of Wisconsin—La
Crosse; Barbara Treadwell, Western Michigan University; Dan Voss, Wright State
University; Augustin Vukov, University of Toronto; Dennis D. Wackerly, University
of Florida; Barbara Wainwright, Salisbury University; Matthew Wood, University
of Missouri—Columbia; Michael Zwilling, Mt. Union College

other Contributors
Special thanks are due to our ancillary authors, Nancy Boudreau and Mark
Dummeldinger, both of whom have worked with us for many years. Accuracy checkers
Dave Bregenzer and Engin Sungur helped ensure a highly accurate, clean text. Finally,
the Pearson Education staff of Deirdre Lynch, Patrick Barbera, Christine O’Brien, Justin
Billing, Tatiana Anacki, Roxanne McCarley, Erin Kelly, Tiffany Bitzel, Jennie Myers
Jean Choe, and Barbara Atkinson, as well as lntegra-Chicago’s Alverne Ball, helped
greatly with all phases of the text development, production, and marketing effort.
Applications Index
Agricultural/gardening/farming
applications:
chickens with fecal contamination, 227
colored string preferred by chickens,
326, 427
crop damage by wild boars, 130, 155, 307
crop yield comparisons, 473–474
dehorning of dairy calves, 406
egg shell quality in laying hens,
566–567
eggs produced from different housing
systems, 577
endangered dwarf shrubs, 577
fungi in beech forest trees, 176
killing insects with low oxygen, 408, 492
maize seeds, 179
pig castration, 493
plants and stress reduction, 553
plants that grow on Swiss cliffs, 97,
626–627
rat damage to sugarcane, 477
RNA analysis of wheat genes, 763, 764
subarctic plants, 806
USDA chicken inspection, 130
zinc phosphide in pest control, 112
Archaeological applications:
ancient pottery, 106, 176, 359, 800
bone fossils, 391–392
defensibility of a landscape,
407–408, 804
footprints in sand, 731
radon exposure in Egyptian tombs,
334, 356, 398–399
ring diagrams, 110
shaft graves in ancient Greece, 50, 69,
188, 335–336, 349, 422
Astronomy/space science applications:
astronomy students and the Big Bang
theory, 408
galaxy velocities, 274–275, 277
lunar soil, 428
measuring the moon’s orbit, 589, 598,
606, 633
rare planet transits, 218
redshifts of quasi-stellar objects, 599, 625
Satellite Database, 21
satellites in orbit, 40
space shuttle disaster, 228
speed of light from galaxies, 109, 111–112
tracking missiles with satellite
imagery, 226
urban population estimating by
satellite images, 670, 696
Automotive/motor vehicle applications.
See also Aviation applications;
Travel applications
air bag danger to children, 362–363
air-pollution standards for engines,
394–396
ammonia in car exhaust, 109
automobiles stocked by dealers, 179
bus interarrival times, 271
bus rapid transit, 731
car battery guarantee, 74–75
car crash testing, 107, 176, 188, 193,
200, 274, 489
car wash waiting time, 219
critical-part failures in NASCAR
vehicles, 271, 303
driving routes, 161
emergency rescue vehicle use, 226
Florida license plates, 168
gas mileage, 245–246, 254–256, 416
highway crash data, 674
improving driving performance while
fatigued, 525–526
income and road rage, 576–577
motorcycle detection while driving, 407
motorcyclists and helmets, 17
mowing effects on highway
right-of-way, 569
railway track allocation, 40, 131
red light cameras and car crashes,
464–465
safety of hybrid cars, 800
satellite radio in cars, 17–18
selecting new-car options, 179
speeding and fatal car crashes, 156
speeding and young drivers, 390
testing tires for wear, 695
time delays at bus stop, 239
traffic fatalities and sporting events, 218
traffic sign maintenance, 472, 781
unleaded fuel costs, 303
used-car warranties, 236–237
variable speed limit control for
freeways, 194–195
Aviation applications:
aircraft bird strikes, 343, 350
airline fatalities, 218
airline shipping routes, 159–160
classifying air threats with heuristics, 795
“cry wolf” effect in air traffic
controlling, 794
flight response of geese to helicopter
Beverage applications:
traffic, 803–804
shared leadership in airplane crews,
448, 723
unoccupied seats per flight, 321
Behavioral applications. See also
Gender applications; Psychological
applications; Sociological applications
accountants and Machiavellian traits,
425, 574
adolescents with ADHD, 671
attempted suicide methods, 142
blondes, hair color, and fundraising,
703–704, 713
bullying, 470–471, 715, 723
cell phone handoff behavior, 143, 223
coupon usage, 805–806
dating and disclosure, 23, 391, 670, 751
Davy Crockett’s use of words, 218–219
divorced couples, 125–126
employee behavior problems, 143
eye and head movement
relationship, 646
fish feeding, 96, 645
income and road rage, 576–577
interactions in children’s museum, 41,
342, 781, 796
Jersey City drug market, 23
last name effect, 194, 448, 476,
484–485, 624
laughter among deaf signers, 462, 477
married women, 226
money spent on gifts (buying love),
23, 509
parents’ behavior at gym meet, 227
personality and aggressive behavior,
325–326, 753
planning-habits survey, 471
retailer interest in shopping
behavior, 686
rudeness in the workplace, 451–452
service without a smile, 452
shock treatment to learners (Milgram
experiment), 148
shopping vehicle and judgment, 78,
251, 450, 486
spanking, parents who condone, 226,
277, 428
teacher perceptions of child
behavior, 426
temptation in consumer choice, 567
time required to complete a task, 392
tipping behavior in restaurants, 685
violent behavior in children, 759
violent song lyrics and aggression, 570
walking in circles when lost, 400
willingness to donate organs, 722–723
working on summer vacation, 212,
266, 307
alcohol, threats, and electric shocks,
252–253
alcohol and marriage, 575
alcohol consumption by college
students, 326, 801–802
alcoholic fermentation in wine, 465
bacteria in bottled water, 350
Bordeaux wine sold at auction, 674
bottled water analysis, 212, 266
bottled water comparisons, 511–512
coffee, caffeine content of, 350
coffee, organic, 407
coffee, overpriced Starbucks, 342
drinking water quality, 21
xxi
xxii appliCations index
Beverage applications: (continued)
lead in drinking water, 82
“Pepsi challenge” marketing
campaign, 425
Pepsi vs. Coca-Cola, 7–8
restoring self-control when
intoxicated, 526, 536
soft-drink bottles, 311
soft-drink dispensing machine, 238–239
spoiled wine testing, 227
temperature and ethanol
production, 526
undergraduate problem drinking, 326
wine production technologies, 703
wine ratings, 186
Biology/life science applications.
See also Dental applications;
Forestry applications; Marine/marine
life applications
African rhinos, 130
aircraft bird strikes, 343, 350
anthrax detection, 238
anthrax mail room contamination, 222
antigens for parasitic roundworm in
birds, 336, 356
armyworm pheromones, 472
ascorbic acid and goat stress, 509, 704
bacteria in bottled water, 350
bacteria-infected spider mites,
reproduction of, 336
baiting traps to maximize beetle
catch, 569
beetles and slime molds, 779
bird species abundance, 765–766
blond hair types in the Southwest
Pacific, 91, 262
body length of armadillos, 107
butterflies, high-arctic, 685
carnation growth, 717–720
chemical insect attractant, 177
chemical signals of mice, 143, 212, 267
chickens with fecal contamination, 227
cockroach random-walk theory, 580
cocktails’ taste preferences, 510
colored string preferred by chickens, 326
corn in duck diet, 732
crab spiders hiding on flowers,
51–52, 398
crop damage by wild boars,
130, 155, 307
dehorning of dairy calves, 406
DNA-reading tool for quick
identification of species, 379
Dutch elm disease, 226
ecotoxicological survival, 267
egg shell quality in laying hens, 566–567
eggs produced from different housing
systems, 577
environmental vulnerability of
amphibians, 194, 200
extinct birds, 21, 42, 78, 82, 157, 227,
359, 574, 705
fallow deer bucks’ probability of
fighting, 142–143, 157
fish feeding, 96
fish feeding behavior, 645
flight response of geese to helicopter
traffic, 803–804
geese decoy effectiveness, 578
giraffe vision, 334, 349, 615–616, 626
great white shark lengths, 400
grizzly bear habitats, 762–763
habitats of endangered species, 260
hippo grazing patterns in Kenya, 484
identifying organisms using
computers, 407
inbreeding of tropical wasps, 361, 427
Index of Biotic Integrity, 490–491
Japanese beetle growth, 760
killing insects with low oxygen, 408, 492
lead levels in mountain moss, 715
Mongolian desert ants, 63, 97, 188,
492, 599, 607, 633
mortality of predatory birds, 646–647
mosquito repellents, 761
parrot fish weights, 427
pig castration, 493
radioactive lichen, 108, 360, 428
rainfall and desert ants, 334
ranging behavior of Spanish cattle, 579
rat damage to sugarcane, 477
rat-in-maze experiment, 72–73
rhino population, 39
roaches and Raid fumigation, 326
salmonella in food, 362, 471–472
snow geese feeding habits, 648, 760–761
spruce budworm infestation, 278
stress in cows prior to slaughter, 551
supercooling temperature of frogs, 311
swim maze study of rat pups, 493
tree frogs, 698
USDA chicken inspection, 130
water hyacinth control, 193–194, 200
weight variation in mice, 480–481
yellowhammer birds, distribution
of, 730
zoo animal training, 108, 362
Business applications:
accountant salary survey, 362
accountants and Machiavellian traits,
425, 574
agreeableness, gender, and wages, 714,
725, 752
assertiveness and leadership, 695
assigning workers, 162
auditor’s judgment, factors affecting, 687
blood diamonds, 155, 266
brokerage analyst forecasts, 141
brown-bag lunches at work, 361
child labor in diamond mines, 626
college protests of labor
exploitation, 109
consumer sentiment on state of
economy, 339–340
corporate sustainability, 22, 50, 61–62,
77, 92, 302, 324, 355, 390
deferred tax allowance, 760
emotional intelligence and team
performance, 680, 754
employee behavior problems, 143
employee performance ratings, 252
entry-level job preferences, 764–765
executive coaching and meeting
effectiveness, 253
executives who cheat at golf, 145
expected value of insurance, 197
facial structure of CEOs, 325, 356, 391
flavor name and consumer choice, 571
gender and salaries, 88–89, 458–459
global warming and foreign
investments, 757–758
goal congruence in top management
teams, 695–696
goodness-of-fit test with monthly
salaries, 806
hiring executives, 160
insurance decision-making, 218, 548–549
job satisfaction of women in
construction, 795
lawyer salaries, 100
modeling executive salary, 728–729
multilevel marketing schemes, 168
museum management, 41–42, 102, 131,
223, 779
nannies who worked for celebrities, 342
nice guys finish last, 597–598, 606, 626,
632–633
overpriced Starbucks coffee, 342
“Pepsi challenge” marketing
campaign, 425
personality traits and job
performance, 694, 714, 725, 752
predicting hours worked per week,
691–692
project team selection, 167
retailer interest in shopping
behavior, 686
rotary oil rigs, 574–575
rudeness in the workplace, 451–452
salary linked to height, 625
self-managed work teams and family
life, 495
shopping on Black Friday, 325, 350, 697
shopping vehicle and judgment, 78,
251, 450, 486
supervisor-targeted aggression, 724
trading skills of institutional
investors, 421
usability professionals salary survey, 679
used-car warranties, 236–237
women in top management, 761
work-life balance, 639
worker productivity data, 708–710
workers’ response to wage cuts, 524, 533
workplace bullying, 715, 723
Zillow.com estimates of home values, 22
Chemicals/chemistry applications.
See also Medical/medical research/
alternative medicine applications
arsenic in groundwater, 672, 680,
687–688, 753
arsenic in soil, 642
carbon monoxide content in
cigarettes, 749–750
chemical composition of rainwater,
704, 715
chemical insect attractant, 177
chemical properties of whole wheat
breads, 534
chemical signals of mice, 143, 212, 267
drug content assessment, 259–260,
422, 450–451
firefighters’ use of gas detection
devices, 156
mineral flotation in water, 64, 260, 453
mosquito repellents, 761

oxygen bubbles in molten salt, 336
pesticide levels, 186–187
roaches and Raid fumigation, 326
rubber additive made from cashew
nut shells, 672, 753
Teflon-coated cookware hazards, 304
toxic chemical incidents, 177
zinc phosphide in pest control, 112
Computer applications. See Electronics/
computer applications
Construction/home improvement/home
purchases and sales applications:
aluminum siding flaws, 311
assigning workers, 162
bending strength of wooden roof, 360
condominium sales, 654–655, 676–678,
720–722, 745–746
errors in estimating job costs, 179
land purchase decision, 79
levelness of concrete slabs, 311
load on frame structures, 253
load on timber beams, 238
predicting sale prices of homes, 643–644
processed straw as thermal
insulation, 765
road construction bidding collusion, 767
sale prices of apartments, 763, 764
spall damage in bricks, 649
Education/school applications. See also
strand bond performance of
pre-stressed concrete, 422
Crime applications. See also Legal/
legislative applications
burglary risk in cul-de-sacs, 349
casino employment and crime, 619–620
community responses to violent
crime, 706
computer, 21
Crime Watch neighborhood, 227
domestic abuse victims, 213, 277
gangs and homemade weapons, 804
Jersey City drug market, 23
masculinity and crime, 452, 803
Medicare fraud investigations, 315,
332–333, 341, 348, 363
motivation of drug dealers, 77, 82, 188,
303, 324, 355–356, 423
post office violence, 176
sex offenders, 730
stress and violence, 310
victims of violent crime, 340–341
Dental applications:
acidity of mouthwash, 463–464
anesthetics, dentists’ use of, 77, 91
cheek teeth of extinct primates, 38, 50,
62, 70, 130–131, 166–167, 356, 398
dental bonding agent, 427, 575–576
dental visit anxiety, 251, 398
laughing gas usage, 226, 310
teeth defects and stress in prehistoric
Japan, 473
Earth science applications. See also
Agricultural/gardening/farming
applications; Environmental
applications; Forestry applications
albedo of ice melt ponds, 324
alkalinity of river water, 275, 426
daylight duration in western
Pennsylvania, 335, 350
deep mixing of soil, 251
dissolved organic compound in lakes,
399–400
dowsers for water detection, 585,
595–596, 612, 623, 631–632
earthquake aftershocks, 59–60
earthquake ground motion, 20
earthquake recurrence in Iran, 271
estimating well scale deposits, 463
glacial drifts, 107, 579–580
glacier elevations, 259
ice melt ponds, 40, 343, 765, 780
identifying urban land cover, 426
lead levels in mountain moss, 715
mining for dolomite, 172–173
permeability of sandstone during
weathering, 63–64, 70, 78, 92–93,
262, 705–706
properties of cemented soils, 524
quantum tunneling, 647
rockfall rebound length, 61, 69–70,
92, 355, 421
shear strength of rock fractures, 259
soil scouring and overturned trees, 525
uranium in Earth’s crust, 238, 303
water retention of soil cores, 278
Library/book applications
blue vs. red exam, 82, 276
bullying behavior, 470–471
calories in school lunches, 379
children’s attitude toward
reading, 310
college application, 20
college entrance exam scores, 248
college protests of labor exploitation,
109, 644–645
compensatory advantage in education,
156–157
delinquent children, 101
detection of rigged school milk
prices, 495
ESL reading ability, 645
ESL students and plagiarism, 131,
222–223
establishing boundaries in academic
engineering, 223
exam performance, 580–581
FCAT math test, 275
FCAT scores and poverty, 600–601,
607, 615
gambling in high schools, 494
grades in statistics courses, 112
homework assistance for college
students, 705
humane education and classroom
pets, 38–39
immediate feedback to incorrect
exam answers, 213
insomnia and education status, 22,
567–568
instructing English-as-a-first-language
learners, 392–393
interactions in children’s museum, 41,
342, 781, 796
IQ and The Bell Curve, 278–279,
766–767
appliCations index xxiii
Japanese reading levels, 106–107, 426
job satisfaction of STEM faculty, 567
late-emerging reading disabilities, 801
matching medical students with
residencies, 179–180
math scores, 82
maximum time to take a test, 278
online courses performance, 648
paper color and exam scores, 574
passing grade scores, 214
preparing for exam questions, 168
ranking Ph.D. programs in economics,
83, 262
RateMyProfessors.com, 624
reading comprehension of Texas
students, 796
SAT scores, 30, 52–53, 80, 92, 95,
108–109, 275, 505, 506, 512–515,
536–537, 759
school attendance, 238
selecting teaching assistants, 220–221
sensitivity of teachers toward racial
intolerance, 464
sentence complexity, 110
standardized test “average,” 112
STEM experiences for girls, 20, 39, 130
student gambling on sports, 227
student GPAs, 20–21, 83
students’ ability in science, 758
teacher perceptions of child
behavior, 426
teaching method comparisons,
435–445
teaching software effectiveness, 448
teenagers’ use of emoticons in writing,
343, 406
untutored second language
acquisition, 93
using game simulation to teach a
course, 131–132, 167
visually impaired students, 276
Elderly/older-person applications:
Alzheimer’s detection, 780–781, 795
Alzheimer’s treatment, 361–362
dementia and leisure activities, 464
personal networks of older adults, 359
wheelchair users, 179
Electronics/computer applications:
accuracy of software effort estimates,
730–731, 753
CD-ROM reliability, 278
cell phone charges, 239
cell phone defects, 347–348
cell phone handoff behavior, 143, 223
cell phone use, 312
college tennis recruiting with Web
site, 575
computer crimes, 21
cyberchondria, 176
downloading apps to cell phone, 193,
200, 308
encoding variability in software, 144
encryption systems with erroneous
ciphertexts, 159
flicker in an electrical power system,
251–252
forecasting movie revenues with
Twitter, 590, 635, 671, 686
xxiv appliCations index
Electronics/computer applications:
(continued)
halogen bulb length of life, 272
identifying organisms using
computers, 407
interactive video games and physical
fitness, 550
Internet addiction, 15
intrusion detection systems, 158,
169–170, 173, 380
LAN videoconferencing, 218
leg movements and impedance, 167
Microsoft program security issues, 39
microwave oven length of life, 269–270
mobile device typing strategies, 780, 795
monitoring quality of power
equipment, 180
network forensic analysis, 228
noise in laser imaging, 218
paper friction in photocopier, 234
paying for music downloads, 38, 307,
342, 406
phishing attacks to email accounts, 53,
271, 302–303, 357
predicting electrical usage, 689–691,
734–736
repairing a computer system, 180
requests to a Web server, 238, 303
robot device reliability, 239
robot-sensor system configuration, 196
robots trained to behave like ants,
525, 534
satellite radio in cars, 17–18
scanning errors at Wal-Mart, 141,
359–360, 425
series and parallel systems, 179–180
silicon wafer microchip failure times,
697, 753
social robots walking and rolling, 38,
76–77, 129, 141, 155, 193, 222, 307,
335, 343, 349, 779
software file updates, 259
solder joint inspections, 428–429
teaching software effectiveness, 448
testing electronic circuits, 494
trajectory of electrical circuit, 275
transmission delays in wireless
technology, 275–276
versatility with resistor-capacitor
circuits, 796
virtual-reality-based rehabilitation
systems, 569
visual attention of video game players,
304, 450, 477, 568–569
voltage sags and swells, 82, 92,
252, 302
vulnerability of relying party Web
sites, 472
wear-out failure time display panels, 277
Web survey response rates, 471
Entertainment applications. See also
Gambling applications
ages of Broadway ticketbuyers, 7
cable TV home shoppers, 477
children’s recall of TV ads, 449, 485
coin toss, 120–121, 124, 129, 136–139,
160, 182, 189, 193, 286
craps game outcomes, 190
dart-throwing, 276
data in the news, 24
die toss, 123–124, 129, 133,
150–151, 175
effectiveness of TV program on
marijuana use, 776–778
forecasting movie revenues with
Twitter, 590, 635, 671, 686
game show “Monty Hall Dilemma”
choices, 797
Howard Stern on Sirius radio, 17–18
“Let’s Make a Deal,” 181–182
life expectancy of Oscar winners, 491
media and attitudes toward tanning,
524, 533
movie selection, 127
music performance anxiety, 50, 61, 69,
334, 397–398
“name game,” 527, 602, 616, 626, 635
newspaper reviews of movies, 127
Odd Man Out game, 181
parlay card betting, 201
paying for music downloads, 38, 307,
342, 406
perfect bridge hand, 181
randomization in studying TV
commercials, 167–168
rating funny cartoons, 761–762
reality TV and cosmetic surgery,
672–673, 678–679, 686, 710, 724–725,
753–754
recall of TV commercials, 525, 534,
704–705
religious symbolism in TV
commercials, 473
revenues of popular movies, 762
scary movies, 361
Scrabble game analysis, 781
“Showcase Showdown” (The Price Is
Right), 227–228
size of TV households, 193
sports news on local TV broadcasts, 643
TV subscription streaming, 406
20/20 survey exposés, 23–24
using game simulation to teach a
course, 131–132, 167
visual attention of video game players,
304, 450, 477, 568–569
“winner’s curse” in auction
bidding, 491
Environmental applications. See also
Earth science applications; Forestry
applications
air-pollution standards for engines,
394–396
aluminum cans contaminated
by fire, 349
ammonia in car exhaust, 109
arsenic in groundwater, 672, 680,
687–688, 753
arsenic in soil, 642
beach erosional hot spots, 177,
200–201
butterflies, high-arctic, 685
chemical composition of rainwater, 704
contaminated fish, 275, 351–354, 576
contaminated river, 10–11
dissolved organic compound in lakes,
399–400
drinking water quality, 21
Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA), 186–187
environmental vulnerability of
amphibians, 194, 200
fecal pollution, 311–312
fire damage, 636–638
glass as waste encapsulant, 725
global warming and foreign
investments, 757–758
groundwater contamination in wells,
42, 108
hazardous waste on-site treatment, 223
hotel water conservation, 123
ice melt ponds, 40, 343, 765, 780
lead in drinking water, 82
lead in metal shredders, 271
lead levels in mountain moss, 715
mussel settlement patterns on algae,
577–578
natural-gas pipeline accidents,
158–159
oil spill and seabirds, 102, 110–111,
489–490
PCB in plant discharge, 427
pesticide levels in discharge water,
186–187
power plant environmental impact, 491
predicting electrical usage, 689–691,
734–736
removing metal from water, 646
removing nitrogen from toxic
wastewater, 634
rotary oil rigs running monthly,
574–575
sedimentary deposits in reservoirs, 277
soil scouring and overturned trees, 525
vinyl chloride emissions, 227
water pollution testing, 360
whales entangled in fishing gear, 524,
533, 670, 685, 703, 713–714, 725
Exercise applications. See Sports/
exercise/fitness applications
Farming applications. See Agricultural/
gardening/farming applications
Fitness applications. See Sports/
exercise/fitness applications
Food applications. See also Agricultural/
gardening/farming applications;
Beverage applications; Health/
health care applications
baker’s vs. brewer’s yeast, 510, 569
baking properties of pizza cheese,
534–535
binge eating therapy, 580
calories in school lunches, 379
chemical properties of whole wheat
breads, 534
colors of M&Ms candies, 130
comparing supermarket prices, 581
corn in duck diet, 732
flavor name and consumer choice, 571
honey as cough remedy, 51, 62, 70, 92,
356–357, 486, 526–527, 535
Hot Tamale caper, 429
kiwifruit as an iron supplement, 167
oil content of fried sweet potato chips,
356, 422, 486

oven cooking, 360–361
package design and taste, 794
packaging of children’s health food,
391, 461
red snapper served in restaurants,
157, 343
red vs. yellow gummy bears and their
flavors, 406, 417
rubber additive made from cashew
nut shells, 672, 753
salmonella, 362, 471–472
steak as favorite barbecue food, 471
sweetness of orange juice, 601, 607,
615, 633–634
taste test rating protocols, 449
taste-testing scales, 551–552, 624
tomato as taste modifier, 251, 303
Forestry applications. See also
Environmental applications
forest development following
wildfires, 277
forest fragmentation, 97, 180, 271, 615
fungi in beech forest trees, 176
spruce budworm infestation, 278
tractor skidding distance, 336, 399
Gambling applications. See also
Entertainment applications
casino gaming, 251
chance of winning at blackjack, 181
chance of winning at craps, 181,
286–288, 292–294
craps game outcomes, 190
Galileo’s passe-dix game, 144
gambling in high schools, 494
game show “Monty Hall Dilemma”
choices, 797
jai alai Quinella betting, 131
“Let’s Make a Deal,” 181–182
mathematical theory of partitions, 168
odds of winning a horse race, 180–181
odds of winning Lotto, 118, 128, 139,
153–154, 201
parlay card betting, 201
roulette, odds of winning at, 177–178, 201
“Showcase Showdown” (The Price Is
Right), 227–228
straight flush in poker, 169
student gambling on sports, 227
tilting in online poker, 669
Gardening applications. See Agricultural/
gardening/farming applications
Gender applications:
agreeableness, gender, and wages, 714,
725, 752
back/knee strength, gender, lifting
strategy, 510
distribution of boys in families, 214
gender and salaries, 88–89, 458–459
gender composition of decision-
making groups, 510
gender discrimination suit, 223
gender in two-child families, 194, 200,
779–780
height, 253, 601–602
job satisfaction of women in
construction, 795
masculinity and crime, 452, 803
masculinizing human faces, 425
sex composition patterns of children
in families, 181
thrill of a close game, 579
voting on women’s issues, 613
women in top management, 761
Genetics applications:
birth order and IQ, 391
dominant vs. recessive traits, 132
gene expression profiling, 141
IQ and The Bell Curve, 278–279,
766–767
light-to-dark transition of genes,
492–493, 579
maize seeds, 179
Punnett square for earlobes, 195–196
quantitative traits in genes, 704
random mutation of cells, 158
reverse-engineering gene
identification, 172
RNA analysis of wheat genes, 763, 764
tests for Down syndrome, 172
Health/health care applications. See
also Beverage applications; Dental
applications; Environmental
applications; Food applications;
Genetics applications; Medical/
medical research/alternative
medicine applications; Safety
applications
air bag danger to children, 362–363
antismoking campaign, 468–469
ascorbic acid and goat stress, 509, 704
birth weights of cocaine babies, 423
blood pressure, 324, 329–330
body fat in men, 267
CDC health survey, 359
childhood obesity, 694–695
cigar smoking and cancer, 178
cigarette advertisements, 376
cigarette smoking, 145–147, 749–750
cruise ship sanitation inspection, 51,
77, 82, 92, 262
cyberchondria, 176
dementia and leisure activities, 464
drinking water quality, 21
emotional distress in firefighters, 726
evaluating health care research
reports, 550–551
hand washing vs. hand rubbing,
78, 304
health risk perception, 698
health risks to beachgoers, 130, 156, 509
heart rate variability (HRV) of police
officers, 323
HIV testing and false positives, 172
hygiene of handshakes, high fives, and
fist bumps, 451, 476, 485–486
insomnia and education status, 22,
567–568
latex allergy in health care workers,
324, 362, 416, 422
low-frequency sound exposure, 577
lung cancer CT scanning, 22
media and attitudes toward tanning,
524, 533
appliCations index xxv
Medicare fraud investigations, 315,
332–333, 341, 348, 363
mental health of a community, 723
MS and exercise, 494–495
muscle, fat, and bone issues while
aging, 157–158
packaging of children’s health food,
391, 461
passing physical fitness examination,
203–207
physical activity of obese young
adults, 303, 625
sleep and mental performance,
472–473
sleep deprivation, 425
stress and violence, 310
stress reduction with plants, 553
summer weight-loss camp, 461
sun safety, 762
Teflon-coated cookware hazards, 304
undergraduate problem drinking, 326
virtual-reality-based rehabilitation
systems, 569
waking sleepers early, 336–337
walking to improve health, 379
weight loss diets, 435–439
wheelchair control, 171
when sick at home, 343
Home improvement. See Construction/
home improvement/home
purchases and sales applications
Home maintenance applications:
aluminum siding flaws, 311
burglary risk in cul-de-sacs, 349
dye discharged in paint, 278
home improvement grants, 223
portable grill displays selection, 131,
167, 195, 428
ranking detergents, 164–166
roaches and Raid fumigation, 326
tissues, number in box, 369, 378, 389,
404–405
Home purchases and sales applications.
See Construction/home
improvement/home purchases and
sales applications
Legal/legislative applications. See also
Crime applications
casket sale restrictions, 751–752
child abuse report, 765
cloning credit or debit cards, 143–144
cocaine sting, 185, 210–211, 221–222
community responses to violent
crime, 706
credit card lawsuit, 434, 445–446,
469–470
curbing street gang gun violence, 41,
343, 780
deferred tax allowance, 760
drivers stopped by police, 82
expert testimony in homicide trials of
battered women, 705
eyewitnesses and mug shots, 570, 793
federal civil trial appeals, 177, 427–428
fingerprint expertise, 172, 212–213,
267, 307
xxvi appliCations index
Legal/legislative applications: (continued)
forensic analysis of JFK assassination
bullets, 173
gender discrimination suit, 223
heart rate variability (HRV) of police
officers, 323
jury trial outcomes, 380
lead bullets as forensic evidence, 132
legal advertising, 639–640
lie detector test, 179, 428
No Child Left Behind Act, 112
patent infringement case, 491–492
polygraph test error rates, 428
racial profiling by the LAPD, 490
recall notice sender and lawsuits,
789–791
road construction bidding collusion, 767
scallop harvesting and the law, 363
Library/book applications:
importance of libraries, 37
learning from picture book reading, 570
library book checkouts, 93
library cards, 176
reading Japanese books, 106–107, 426
reading tongue twisters, 491
Life science applications. See Biology/
life science applications; Marine/
marine life applications
Manufacturing applications. See
also Automotive/motor vehicle
applications; Construction/home
improvement/home purchases and
sales applications
accidents at a plant, 278
active nuclear power plants, 64–65, 70
aluminum smelter pot life span, 646
anticorrosive behavior of steel coated
with epoxy, 548, 581
boiler drum production, 680
brightness measuring instruments
precision, 494
bubble behavior in subcooled flow
boiling, 673–674, 688, 754
characteristics of lead users, 670, 678
child labor in diamond mines, 626
confidence of feedback information
for improving quality, 173
consumer complaints, 148, 151
contaminated gun cartridges, 194, 223
cooling method for gas turbines,
392, 416, 422–423, 673, 679, 687,
723–724, 754
corrosion prevention of buried steel
structures, 20
cutting tool life span tests, 608,
635–636
cycle availability of a system, 238
defect rate comparison between
machines, 474
defective batteries, 402–403
estimating repair and replacement
costs of water pipes, 600, 613, 696
flaws in plastic coated wire, 219
flexography printing plates, evaluation
of, 524–525, 534
freckling of superalloy ingots, 110
glass as a waste encapsulant, 725
gouges on a spindle, 239
halogen bulb length of life, 272
increasing hardness of polyester
composites, 399
lot acceptance sampling, 264–265, 272
lot inspection sampling, 223
machine bearings production, 310
machine repair time, 311
metal lathe quality control, 376
microwave oven length of life, 269–270
nondestructive evaluation, 173
nuclear missile housing parts,
defects in, 759
pipe wall temperature, 238
predicting thrust force of metal drill,
725–726
preventing production of defective
items, 350
preventive maintenance tests, 271
product failure behavior, 272
purchase of fair-trade products, 568
quality control monitoring, 310, 376
refrigeration systems, commercial, 694
reliability of a manufacturing
network, 195, 200
semiconductor material processing, 761
settlement of shallow foundations,
462–463
soft-drink bottles, 311
soft-drink dispensing machine, 238–239
solar energy cells, 194, 463, 477, 549, 639
spall damage in bricks, 649
spare line replacement units, 218
temperature and ethanol
production, 526
testing manufacturer’s claim, 299–300
thickness of steel sheets, 288–289
twinned drill holes, 461–462
weapons development, 233, 248–249,
256–257
weights of corn chip bags, 278
when to replace a maintenance
system, 227
wind turbine blade stress, 642–643
wine production technologies, 703
yield strength of steel alloy, 731, 753
yield strength of steel connecting
bars, 399
Marine/marine life applications, 96
contaminated fish, 275, 351–354, 576
deep-draft vessel casualties, 227
lobster fishing, 614, 624–625
lobster trap placement, 335, 349, 356,
397, 450
marine losses for oil company, 276
mercury levels in wading birds, 380
mussel settlement patterns on algae,
577–578
oil spill and seabirds, 102, 110–111,
489–490
rare underwater sounds, 130
scallop harvesting and the law, 363
sea-ice melt ponds, 765
shell lengths of sea turtles, 69, 251,
303, 326, 335, 356
ship-to-shore transfer times, 271–272
species abundance, 731–732
underwater acoustic communication,
213, 407
underwater sound-locating abilities of
alligators, 406, 417
whale sightings, 215–217
whales entangled in fishing gear, 524,
533, 670, 685, 703, 713–714, 725
whistling dolphins, 109–110
Medical/medical research/alternative
medicine applications. See also
Dental applications; Genetics
applications; Health/health care
applications
abortion provider survey, 142
accuracy of pregnancy tests, 181
adolescents with ADHD, 671
Alzheimer’s detection, 780–781, 795
Alzheimer’s treatment, 361–362
ambulance response time, 158, 252
angioplasty’s benefits challenged,
472, 477
animal-assisted therapy for heart
patients, 78–79, 491, 527, 536
ascorbic acid and goat stress, 509, 704
asthma drug, 361–362
binge eating therapy, 580
blood typing method, 96, 599, 606–607
brain specimen research, 52, 91, 361
bulimia, 449–450, 477, 485
Caesarian births, 212, 266–267
cancer and smoking, 145–147
cardiac stress testing, 155
change-point dosage, 696–697
characterizing bone with fractal
geometry, 616
contact lenses for myopia, 64
dance/movement therapy, 647–648
dementia and leisure activities, 464
depression treatment, 489, 509
distress in EMS workers, 758
drug content assessment, 259–260,
422, 450–451
drug designed to reduce blood loss,
33–35
drug response time, 377–378, 386–387,
605, 610, 622, 628–629
drug testing, 132, 172, 425, 493
dust mite allergies, 226
Dutch elm disease, 226
eating disorders, 52, 310, 580
effectiveness of TV program on
marijuana use, 776–778
emergency arrivals, length of time
between, 268–269
emergency room bed availability, 228
emergency room waiting time, 267
errors in filling prescriptions, 311
errors in medical tests, 426
ethnicity and pain perception, 453
eye fixation experiment, 218
eye movement and spatial distortion,
686
eye refraction, 64
eye shadow, mascara, and nickel
allergies, 344, 350
fitness of cardiac patients, 277
gestation time for pregnant women, 276
healing potential of handling museum
objects, 462
heart patients, healing with music,
imagery, touch, and prayer, 793–794

heart rate during laughter, 391
herbal medicines and therapy, 21, 425
HIV testing and false positives, 172
HIV vaccine efficacy, 796–797
honey as cough remedy, 51, 62, 70, 92,
356–357, 486, 526–527, 535
hospital administration of malaria
patients, 471
hospital admissions, 137–138
hospital patient arrival times, 276
hospital stay, length of, 94–95,
317–319, 388
insomnia pill, 283, 300–301
interocular eye pressure, 428
iron supplement for anemia, 715
jaw dysfunction, 779
LASIK surgery complications, 266
latex allergy in health care workers,
324, 362, 416, 422
leg movements and impedance, 167
lumbar disease, risk factor for, 800
lung cancer CT scanning, 22
major depression and personality
disorders, 704
male fetal deaths following 9/11/2001,
408
melanoma deaths, 275
MS and exercise, 494–495
multiple-sclerosis drug, 803
olfactory reference syndrome (ORS),
344, 350
pain empathy and brain activity, 616
pain-relief tablet, testing of, 510–511,
570–571
pain tolerance, 627
placebo effect and pain, 462
post-op nausea, 132
psoriasis, treatment of with the
“Doctorfish of Kangal,” 92
reaction time to drugs, 588, 592–595
reality TV and cosmetic surgery,
672–673, 678–679, 686, 710, 724–725,
753–754
scopolamine effect on memory, 535–536
skin cancer treatment, 198–199
skin cream effectiveness, 429
sleep apnea and sleep stage
transitioning, 141–142, 156
splinting in mountain-climbing
accidents, 343–344
stability of compounds in drugs,
49–50, 82, 390
sterile couples in Jordan, 176
tendon pain treatment, 510, 549–550
tests for Down syndrome, 172
transplants, 181, 772, 789–791
virtual reality hypnosis for pain, 380
vitamin B supplement, 578
willingness to donate organs, 722–723
writing styles in medical journals, 535
yoga for cancer patients, 523–524
Miscellaneous applications:
Benford’s Law of Numbers, 111, 226
box plots and standard normal
distribution, 253
clock auction price, 658–665, 667–668,
675–676, 682–684, 740–742
customers in line at Subway shop, 188
cycle availability of a system, 238
elevator passenger arrivals, 219
elevator waiting times, 276
evaluation of imputation method for
missing data, 625
evaporation from swimming pools,
324–325
fill weight variance, 418–420
identifying target parameter, 493–494
impact of dropping ping-pong balls,
710–711
jitter in water power system, 362
luck, 576
maintenance support system
selection, 168
marine selection, 127
matching socks, 132
modeling the behavior of granular
media, 168–169
National Bridge Inventory, 21
national firearms survey, 155, 342–343
normal curve approximation, 277–278
one-shot devices, 227
Pentagon speeds up order-to-delivery
times, 486
predicting elements in aluminum
alloys, 669–670
psychic ability, 158, 213–214
quantitative models of music, 607
questionnaire mailings, 228
random numbers, 19–20, 235
randomly sampling households, 13
regression through the origin, 648
selecting a random sample of
students, 176
selecting soldiers for dangerous
missions, 160, 163
sound waves from a basketball, 52,
96–97, 188, 601, 635
spreading rate of spilled liquid, 97–98,
602–603, 617, 635
symmetric vs. skewed data sets, 63
testing normality, 806
TNT detection, 158
urban counties, factors identifying,
759–760
U.S. ZIP codes, 167
Winchester bullet velocity, 78
Motor vehicle applications. See
Automotive/motor vehicle
applications
Nuclear applications. See under
Manufacturing applications
Political applications:
beauty and electoral success, 614
blood diamonds, 155, 266
border protection avatar, 380
consumer sentiment on state of
economy, 339–340
countries allowing free press, 227
electoral college votes, 252
exit polls, 182
Iraq War casualties, 102
political representation of religious
groups, 781
politics and religion, 801
public opinion polls, 337
rigged election, 806
appliCations index xxvii
selecting committee members, 179
trust in president, 337
U.S. Treasury deficit prior to Civil
War, 21
verifying voter petitions, 429
voters in favor of a candidate, 306
voting for mayor, 208–210, 304–306
voting in primary elections, 213
voting on women’s issues, 613
Psychological applications. See also
Behavioral applications; Gender
applications; Religion applications;
Sociological applications
agreeableness, gender, and wages, 714,
725, 752
alcohol, threats, and electric shocks,
252–253
alcohol and marriage, 575
appraisals and negative emotions, 156
assertiveness and leadership, 695
attention time given to twins, 360
auditor’s judgment, factors affecting, 687
binge eating therapy, 580
birth order and IQ, 391
blondes, hair color, and fundraising,
703–704, 713
body image dissatisfaction, 30, 35–37,
48, 75–76, 90
body orientation, 804–805
bulimia, 449–450, 477, 485
characteristics of antiwar
demonstrators, 77–78, 259, 304
children’s perceptions of their
neighborhood, 792
children’s recall of TV ads, 449, 485
choosing a mother, 23
cognitive impairment of
schizophrenics, 448–449, 486
cognitive skills for successful arguing,
451, 485
dental visit anxiety, 251, 398
detecting rapid visual targets and
attentional blink, 607
distress in EMS workers, 758
divorced couples, 152–153
dream experiment, 180
eating disorders, 52, 310, 580
effectiveness of TV program on
marijuana use, 776–778
emotional distress in firefighters, 726
emotional empathy in young adults, 391
emotional intelligence and team
performance, 680, 754
eye movement and spatial
distortion, 686
eyewitnesses and mug shots, 570
facial expression, 578
free recall memory strategy, 399
gender composition of decision-
making groups, 510
guilt in decision making, 22, 142,
155–156, 223, 534, 806
health risk perception, 698
influencing performance in a serial
addition task, 471, 476, 794
interactions in children’s museum, 41,
342, 781, 796
Internet addiction, 15
xxviii appliCations index
Psychological applications: (continued)
IQ and mental deficiency, 804
irrelevant facial similarity effects on
judgment, 552
irrelevant speech effects, 49, 77,
102–103, 188, 258–259, 323–324,
392, 421
lie detector test, 179, 428
listen and look, 758–759
listening ability of infants, 553
listening time of infants, 379
major depression and personality
disorders, 704
making high-stakes insurance
decisions, 218, 548–549
married women, 226
mental health of a community, 723
money spent on gifts (buying love),
23, 509
motivation and right-oriented bias, 41
motivation of drug dealers, 77, 82, 188,
303, 324, 355–356, 423
music performance anxiety, 50, 61, 69,
334, 397–398
olfactory reference syndrome (ORS),
344, 350
orientation clue experiment, 805
personality and aggressive behavior,
325–326, 753
personality traits and job
performance, 694, 714, 725, 752
pitch memory of amusiacs, 335, 350, 399
post-traumatic stress of POWs, 426–427
rat-in-maze experiment, 72–73
rating funny cartoons, 761–762
recall of TV commercials, 525, 534,
704–705
restoring self-control when
intoxicated, 526, 536
rotating objects, view of, 625–626
shock treatment to learners (Milgram
experiment), 148
shopping vehicle and judgment, 78,
251, 450, 486
sleep deprivation, 425
social interaction of mental patients, 392
spanking, parents who condone, 226,
277, 428
stimulus reaction, 87–88
superstition survey, 212, 307
supervisor-targeted aggression, 724
susceptibility to hypnosis, 15–16, 311,
805–806
task deviations, 46–47
teacher perceptions of child
behavior, 426
time required to complete a task, 392
“tip-of-the-tongue” phenomenon, 472
unconscious self-esteem, 687
undergraduate problem drinking, 326
violence and stress, 310
violent behavior in children, 759
violent song lyrics and aggression, 570
virtual reality hypnosis for pain, 380
visual search and memory, 464
voice vs. face recognition, 503–504,
521–522, 532–533, 545–547, 564–565
waiting in line, 686
water-level task, 46–47, 86
Religion applications:
belief in an afterlife, 227
belief in Bible, 41
marital status and religion, 787–788
political representation of religious
groups, 781
politics and religion, 801
religious movement membership, 697
religious symbolism in TV
commercials, 473
Safety applications. See also Health/
health care applications
hybrid cars, 800
sun, 762
underground tunnels, 252
School applications. See Education/
school applications
Sociological applications. See also
Behavioral applications; Gender
applications; Psychological
applications
acquiring a pet, 212, 266, 275
family planning, 134–135
fieldwork methods, 108, 180, 801
genealogy research, 39–40
Generation Y’s entitlement mentality,
613–614
Hite Report, 112–113
ideal height of mate, 601–602, 608,
615, 635
identical twins reared apart, 492
marital name change, 213, 267, 310
“marriage” problem, 168
modeling number of children, 703
mother’s race and maternal age,
134–135
race and football card values, 704, 713
salary linked to height, 625
single-parent families, 427
social network densities, 238
social network usage, 2, 9, 16, 18, 141
stereotyping deceptive and authentic
news stories, 793
tipping behavior in restaurants, 685
voter preferences for a committee, 195
welfare workers, 148–150
Space science applications. See
Astronomy/space science
applications
Sports/exercise/fitness applications:
altitude effects on climbers, 490
back/knee strength, gender, lifting
strategy, 510
baseball batting averages, 260
baseball batting averages vs. wins, 644
baseball runs scored, 670–671, 678
basketball shooting free throws, 179
basketball team choice, 167
college tennis recruiting with Web
site, 575
drafting football quarterbacks, 20, 510
drug testing of athletes, 172, 493
elevation and baseball hitting
performance, 96, 616–617
executive workout dropouts, 490
executives who cheat at golf, 145
exercise workout dropouts, 361
favorite sport, 379
football fourth down tactics, 624, 695
football speed training, 326, 360
football uniform combinations, 167
game performance of water polo
players, 589–590, 598–599, 606, 635
golf ball brand comparisons,
507–508, 516–518, 529–531,
541–543, 700–702
golf ball driving distance, 558–563
golf ball specifications, 214
golf ball tests, 361
golfers’ driving performance, 62–63,
98, 260–261, 600, 615, 633
inflation pressure of footballs, 346
interactive video games and physical
fitness, 550
long-jump takeoff error, 649
marathon winning times, 647, 714
massage, effect on boxers, 22, 552–553,
615, 626
mile run times, 277
odds of winning a horse race, 180–181
parents’ behavior at a gym meet, 227
physical activity of obese young
adults, 303, 625
Play Golf America program, 379
point spreads of football games, 422
professional athlete salaries, 112
scouting a football free agent, 477
soccer goal target, 252
sports news on local TV broadcasts, 643
sprint speed training, 20
student gambling on sports, 227
thrill of a close game, 579
“topsy-turvy” seasons in college
football, 549
traffic fatalities and sporting events, 218
volleyball positions, 168
walking to improve health, 379
Travel applications. See also
Automotive/motor vehicle applications;
Aviation applications
bus interarrival times, 271
bus rapid transit, 731
cruise ship sanitation inspection, 51,
77, 82, 92, 262
driving routes, 161
hotel guest satisfaction, 267, 308
hotels, ratings of five-star, 490
purchasing souvenirs, 802
ship-to-shore transfer times, 271–272
time delays at bus stop, 239
travel manager salaries, 310
traveling between cities, 167
unleaded fuel costs, 303
vacation destination, 671–672
Weather applications:
California rain levels, 679
chance of rainfall, 131
chemical composition of rainwater,
704, 715
rainfall and desert ants, 334
rainfall estimation, 646
Texas droughts, 191
 1 Statistics, Data, and
Statistical Thinking
contents Where We’re Going
• Introduce the field of statistics (1.1)
1.1 The Science of Statistics • Demonstrate how statistics applies to
1.2 Types of Statistical Applications real-world problems (1.2)
1.3 Fundamental Elements of Statistics • Introduce the language of statistics and the key
1.4 Types of Data elements to any statistical problem (1.3)
• Differentiate between population and
1.5 Collecting Data: Sampling and sample data (1.3)
Related Issues
• Differentiate between descriptive and inferential
1.6 The Role of Statistics in Critical statistics (1.3)
Thinking and Ethics • Identify the different types of data and data
collection methods (1.4–1.5)
• Discover how critical thinking through statistics
can help improve our quantitative literacy (1.6)
2 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

Statistics in Action Social Media Network Usage—

Are You Linked In?
The Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan organization funded • Twitter Usage:
by a Philadelphia-based charity, has conducted more than 100 When asked if they ever use
surveys on Internet usage in the United States as part of the Twitter, adults responded:
Pew Internet & American Life Project (PIALP). In a recent
report titled Social Media Update, 2013, the PIALP examined
Yes 18%
adults’ (ages 18 and up) attitudes and behavior toward online
social media networks. Regarded merely as a fun, online ac- No 82%
tivity for high school and college students just a few years ago,
social media now exert tremendous influence over the way • Overall Social Media Usage:
people around the world—of all ages—get and share informa- When asked about how many of the five social networking
tion. The five social media sites investigated in this report in- sites they use, adults responded:
clude Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Pinterest, and LinkedIn.
The Pew Research Center contacted 1,445 Internet users via 0 22%
landline telephone or cell phone for the survey.
Several of the many survey questions asked are provided 1 36%
here as well as the survey results: 2 23%

• Social Networking: 3 12%

When asked if they ever use an online social networking 4 5%

site, adults responded: 5 2%

Yes 73% (Average = 1.48 sites)

No 27% In the following “Statistics in Action Revisited” sections,
we discuss several key statistical concepts covered in this
• Facebook Usage:
chapter that are relevant to the Pew Internet & American
When Facebook users were asked how often they visit the Life Project survey.
social media site, they responded:

Several times a day 40%

About once a day 24%
Statistics in Action Revisited
3–5 days a week 10%
1–2 days a week 13% • Identifying the Population, Sample, and Inference (p. 9)
• Identifying the Data Collection Method and Data Type
Every few weeks 6%
(p. 16)
Less often 7% • Critically Assessing the Ethics of a Statistical Study (p. 18)

1.1 The Science of Statistics

What does statistics mean to you? Does it bring to mind batting averages, Gallup polls,
unemployment figures, or numerical distortions of facts (lying with statistics!)? Or is
it simply a college requirement you have to complete? We hope to persuade you that
statistics is a meaningful, useful science whose broad scope of applications to business,
government, and the physical and social sciences is almost limitless. We also want to show
that statistics can lie only when they are misapplied. Finally, we wish to demonstrate the
key role statistics plays in critical thinking—whether in the classroom, on the job, or in
everyday life. Our objective is to leave you with the impression that the time you spend
studying this subject will repay you in many ways.
The Random House College Dictionary defines statistics as “the science that deals
with the collection, classification, analysis, and interpretation of information or data.”
 section 1.2 ■ Types of Statistical Applications 3

Thus, a statistician isn’t just someone who calculates batting averages at baseball games
or tabulates the results of a Gallup poll. Professional statisticians are trained in statistical
science. That is, they are trained in collecting information in the form of data, evaluating
the information, and drawing conclusions from it. Furthermore, statisticians determine
what information is relevant in a given problem and whether the conclusions drawn
from a study are to be trusted.

Statistics is the science of data. This involves collecting, classifying, summarizing, orga-
nizing, analyzing, presenting, and interpreting numerical and categorical information.

In the next section, you’ll see several real-life examples of statistical applications
that involve making decisions and drawing conclusions.

1.2 Types of Statistical Applications

“Statistics” means “numerical descriptions” to most people. Monthly housing starts,
the failure rate of liver transplants, and the proportion of African-Americans who
feel brutalized by local police all represent statistical descriptions of large sets of data
collected on some phenomenon. (Later, in Section 1.4, we learn that not all data is
numerical in nature.) Often the data are selected from some larger set of data whose
characteristics we wish to estimate. We call this selection process sampling. For example,
you might collect the ages of a sample of customers who shop for a particular product
online to estimate the average age of all customers who shop online for the product. Then
you could use your estimate to target the Web site’s advertisements to the appropriate
age group. Notice that statistics involves two different processes: (1) describing sets of
data and (2) drawing conclusions (making estimates, decisions, predictions, etc.) about
the sets of data on the basis of sampling. So, the applications of statistics can be divided
into two broad areas: descriptive statistics and inferential statistics.

Descriptive statistics utilizes numerical and graphical methods to look for patterns
in a data set, to summarize the information revealed in a data set, and to present that
information in a convenient form.

Inferential statistics utilizes sample data to make estimates, decisions, predictions, or

other generalizations about a larger set of data.

BiogrAphy Florence nighTingAle (1820–1910)

The Passionate Statistician

In Victorian England, the “Lady of the Lamp” had a mission to improve the squalid field hospital conditions
of the British army during the Crimean War. Today, most historians consider Florence Nightingale to be the
founder of the nursing profession. To convince members of the British Parliament of the need for supplying
nursing and medical care to soldiers in the field, Nightingale compiled massive amounts of data from army
files. Through a remarkable series of graphs (which included the first pie chart), she demonstrated that most
of the deaths in the war either were due to illnesses contracted outside the battlefield or occurred long after
battle action from wounds that went untreated. Florence Nightingale’s compassion and self-sacrificing
nature, coupled with her ability to collect, arrange, and present large amounts of data, led some to call her
the Passionate Statistician.

Although we’ll discuss both descriptive and inferential Statistics in the chapters
that follow, the primary theme of the text is inference.
Let’s begin by examining some studies that illustrate applications of statistics.

Study 1.1 “Best-Selling Girl Scout Cookies” (Source: www.girlscouts.org)

Since 1917, the Girl Scouts of America have been selling boxes of cookies. Currently, there
are 12 varieties for sale: Thin Mints, Samoas, Lemonades, Tagalongs, Do-si-dos, Trefoils,
4 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

Savannah Smiles, Thanks-A-Lot, Dulce de Leche, Cranberry Citrus Crisps, Chocolate Chip,
and Thank U Berry Much. Each of the approximately 150 million boxes of Girl Scout
cookies sold each year is classified by variety. The results are summarized in Figure 1.1. From
the graph, you can clearly see that the best-selling variety is Thin Mints (25%), followed by
Samoas (19%) and Tagalongs (13%). Since the figure describes the various categories of
boxes of Girl Scout cookies sold, the graphic is an example of descriptive statistics.

Figure 1.1
MINITAB graph of best-selling
Girl Scout cookies (Based on www.
girlscouts.org, 2011–12 sales.)

Study 1.2 “Are Action Video Game Players Better than Non-gamers at Complex,
Divided Attention Tasks?” (Source: Human Factors, Vol. 56, No. 31, May 2014)
Researchers at the Universities of Illinois (Urbana-Champaign) and Central Florida
conducted a study to determine whether video game players are better than non-video
game players at crossing the street when presented with distractions. Each in a sample
of 60 college students was classified as a video game player or a non-gamer. Participants
entered a street crossing simulator and were asked to cross a busy street at an unsigned
intersection. The simulator was designed to have cars traveling at various high rates of
speed in both directions. During the crossing, the students also performed a memory
task as a distraction. The researchers found no differences in either the street crossing
performance or memory task score of video game players and non-gamers. “These
results,” say the researchers, “suggest that action video game players [and non-gamers]
are equally susceptible to the costs of dividing attention in a complex task.” Thus,
inferential statistics was applied to arrive at this conclusion.
Study 1.3 “Does Rudeness Really Matter in the Workplace?” (Source: Academy
of Management Journal, Oct. 2007)
Previous studies have established that rudeness in the workplace can lead to retaliatory
and counterproductive behavior. However, there has been little research on how rude
behaviors influence a victim’s task performance. Consider a study where college students
enrolled in a management course were randomly assigned to one of two experimental
conditions: rudeness condition (45 students) and control group (53 students). Each
student was asked to write down as many uses for a brick as possible in five minutes;
this value (total number of uses) was used as a performance measure for each student.
For those students in the rudeness condition, the facilitator displayed rudeness by
berating the students in general for being irresponsible and unprofessional (due to a
late-arriving confederate). No comments were made about the late-arriving confederate
for students in the control group. As you might expect, the researchers discovered that
the performance levels for students in the rudeness condition were generally lower
than the performance levels for students in the control group; thus, they concluded that
rudeness in the workplace negatively affects job performance. As in Study 1.2, this study
is an example of the use of inferential statistics. The researchers used data collected on
98 college students in a simulated work environment to make an inference about the
performance levels of all workers exposed to rudeness on the job.
 section 1.3 ■ Fundamental elements of Statistics 5

These studies provide three real-life examples of the uses of statistics. Notice
that each involves an analysis of data, either for the purpose of describing the data set
(Study 1.1) or for making inferences about a data set (Studies 1.2 and 1.3).

1.3 Fundamental Elements of Statistics

Statistical methods are particularly useful for studying, analyzing, and learning about
populations of experimental units.

An experimental (or observational) unit is an object (e.g., person, thing, transaction,

or event) about which we collect data.

A population is a set of all units (usually people, objects, transactions, or events)

that we are interested in studying.

For example, populations may include (1) all employed workers in the United States,
(2) all registered voters in California, (3) everyone who is afflicted with AIDS, (4) all the
cars produced last year by a particular assembly line, (5) the entire stock of spare parts
available at Southwest Airlines’ maintenance facility, (6) all sales made at the drive-in
window of a McDonald’s restaurant during a given year, or (7) the set of all accidents
occurring on a particular stretch of interstate highway during a holiday period. Notice
that the first three population examples (1–3) are sets (groups) of people, the next two
(4–5) are sets of objects, the next (6) is a set of transactions, and the last (7) is a set of
events. Notice also that each set includes all the units in the population.
In studying a population, we focus on one or more characteristics or properties of
the units in the population. We call such characteristics variables. For example, we may
be interested in the variables age, gender, and number of years of education of the peo-
ple currently unemployed in the United States.

A variable is a characteristic or property of an individual experimental (or observa-

tional) unit in the population.

The name variable is derived from the fact that any particular characteristic may
vary among the units in a population.
In studying a particular variable, it is helpful to be able to obtain a numerical rep-
resentation for it. Often, however, numerical representations are not readily available, so
measurement plays an important supporting role in statistical studies. Measurement is the
process we use to assign numbers to variables of individual population units. We might,
for instance, measure the performance of the president by asking a registered voter to
rate it on a scale from 1 to 10. Or we might measure the age of the U.S. workforce simply
by asking each worker, “How old are you?” In other cases, measurement involves the use
of instruments such as stopwatches, scales, and calipers.
If the population you wish to study is small, it is possible to measure a variable for
every unit in the population. For example, if you are measuring the GPA for all incoming
first-year students at your university, it is at least feasible to obtain every GPA. When we
measure a variable for every unit of a population, it is called a census of the population.
Typically, however, the populations of interest in most applications are much larger, in-
volving perhaps many thousands, or even an infinite number, of units. Examples of large
populations are those following the definition of population above, as well as all gradu-
ates of your university or college, all potential buyers of a new iPhone, and all pieces of
first-class mail handled by the U.S. Post Office. For such populations, conducting a census
would be prohibitively time consuming or costly. A reasonable alternative would be to
select and study a subset (or portion) of the units in the population.
6 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

A sample is a subset of the units of a population.

For example, instead of polling all 145 million registered voters in the United States
during a presidential election year, a pollster might select and question a sample of just
1,500 voters. (See Figure 1.2.) If he is interested in the variable “presidential preference,”
he would record (measure) the preference of each vote sampled.

Population Sample

1st voter ID card

selected

2nd voter ID card

selected

1,500th voter ID card

selected

145 million
Figure 1.2 voter ID cards
A sample of voter registration
cards for all registered voters

After the variables of interest for every unit in the sample (or population) are
measured, the data are analyzed, either by descriptive or inferential statistical methods.
The pollster, for example, may be interested only in describing the voting patterns of the
sample of 1,500 voters. More likely, however, he will want to use the information in the
sample to make inferences about the population of all 145 million voters.

A statistical inference is an estimate, prediction, or some other generalization about

a population based on information contained in a sample.

That is, we use the information contained in the smaller sample to learn about the larger
population.* Thus, from the sample of 1,500 voters, the pollster may estimate the per-
centage of all the voters who would vote for each presidential candidate if the election
were held on the day the poll was conducted, or he might use the results to predict the
outcome on election day.

*The terms population and sample are often used to refer to the sets of measurements themselves as well
as to the units on which the measurements are made. When a single variable of interest is being measured,
this usage causes little confusion. But when the terminology is ambiguous, we’ll refer to the measurements
as population data sets and sample data sets, respectively.
 section 1.3 ■ Fundamental elements of Statistics 7

Example 1.1 Problem According to Variety (Jan. 10, 2014), the average age of Broadway ticketbuyers
is 42.5 years. Suppose a Broadway theatre executive hypothesizes that the average age
Key Elements of a
of ticketbuyers to her theatre’s plays is less than 42.5 years. To test her hypothesis, she
Statistical Problem—Ages samples 200 ticketbuyers to her theatre’s plays and determines the age of each.
of Broadway Ticketbuyers
a. Describe the population.
b. Describe the variable of interest.
c. Describe the sample.
d. Describe the inference.

Solution
a. The population is the set of all units of interest to the theatre executive, which is the
set of all ticketbuyers to her theatre’s plays.
b. The age (in years) of each ticketbuyer is the variable of interest.
c. The sample must be a subset of the population. In this case, it is the 200 ticketbuyers
selected by the executive.
d. The inference of interest involves the generalization of the information contained
in the sample of 200 ticketbuyers to the population of all her theatre’s ticketbuyers.
In particular, the executive wants to estimate the average age of the ticketbuyers to
her theatre’s plays in order to determine whether it is less than 42.5 years. She might
accomplish this by calculating the average age of the sample and using that average to
estimate the average age of the population.

Look Back A key to diagnosing a statistical problem is to identify the data set collected
(in this example, the ages of the 200 ticketbuyers) as a population or a sample.
■ Now Work Exercise 1.13

Example 1.2 Problem “Cola wars” is the popular term for the intense competition between Coca-
Cola and Pepsi displayed in their marketing campaigns, which have featured movie and
Key Elements of a
television stars, rock videos, athletic endorsements, and claims of consumer preference
Statistical Problem— based on taste tests. Suppose, as part of a Pepsi marketing campaign, 1,000 cola
Pepsi vs. Coca-Cola consumers are given a blind taste test (i.e., a taste test in which the two brand names are
disguised). Each consumer is asked to state a preference for brand A or brand B.
a. Describe the population.
b. Describe the variable of interest.
c. Describe the sample.
d. Describe the inference.

Solution
a. Since we are interested in the responses of cola consumers in a taste test, a cola con-
sumer is the experimental unit. Thus, the population of interest is the collection or set
of all cola consumers.
b. The characteristic that Pepsi wants to measure is the consumer’s cola preference, as
revealed under the conditions of a blind taste test, so cola preference is the variable
of interest.
c. The sample is the 1,000 cola consumers selected from the population of all cola
consumers.
d. The inference of interest is the generalization of the cola preferences of the 1,000
sampled consumers to the population of all cola consumers. In particular, the prefer-
ences of the consumers in the sample can be used to estimate the percentages of cola
consumers who prefer each brand.
8 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

Look Back In determining whether the study is inferential or descriptive, we assess whether
Pepsi is interested in the responses of only the 1,000 sampled customers (descriptive
statistics) or in the responses of the entire population of consumers (inferential statistics).
■ Now Work Exercise 1.16b

The preceding definitions and examples identify four of the five elements of an
inferential statistical problem: a population, one or more variables of interest, a sample,
and an inference. But making the inference is only part of the story; we also need to
know its reliability—that is, how good the inference is. The only way we can be certain
that an inference about a population is correct is to include the entire population in our
sample. However, because of resource constraints (i.e., insufficient time or money), we
usually can’t work with whole populations, so we base our inferences on just a portion
of the population (a sample). Thus, we introduce an element of uncertainty into our in-
ferences. Consequently, whenever possible, it is important to determine and report the
reliability of each inference made. Reliability, then, is the fifth element of inferential
statistical problems.
The measure of reliability that accompanies an inference separates the science of
statistics from the art of fortune-telling. A palm reader, like a statistician, may examine a
sample (your hand) and make inferences about the population (your life). However, un-
like statistical inferences, the palm reader’s inferences include no measure of reliability.
Suppose, like the theatre executive in Example 1.1, we are interested in the error of
estimation (i.e., the difference between the average age of a population of ticketbuyers
and the average age of a sample of ticketbuyers). Using statistical methods, we can deter-
mine a bound on the estimation error. This bound is simply a number that our estimation
error (the difference between the average age of the sample and the average age of
the population) is not likely to exceed. We’ll see in later chapters that this bound is a
measure of the uncertainty of our inference. The reliability of statistical inferences is
discussed throughout this text. For now, we simply want you to realize that an inference
is incomplete without a measure of its reliability.

A measure of reliability is a statement (usually quantitative) about the degree of

uncertainty associated with a statistical inference.

Let’s conclude this section with a summary of the elements of descriptive and of
inferential statistical problems and an example to illustrate a measure of reliability.

Four Elements of Descriptive Statistical Problems

1. The population or sample of interest
2. One or more variables (characteristics of the population or sample units) that
are to be investigated
3. Tables, graphs, or numerical summary tools
4. Identification of patterns in the data

Five Elements of Inferential Statistical Problems

1. The population of interest
2. One or more variables (characteristics of the population units) that are to be
investigated
3. The sample of population units
4. The inference about the population based on information contained in the
sample
5. A measure of the reliability of the inference
 section 1.4 ■ Types of Data 9

Example 1.3 Problem Refer to Example 1.2, in which the preferences of 1,000 cola consumers were
indicated in a taste test. Describe how the reliability of an inference concerning the
Reliability of an
preferences of all cola consumers in the Pepsi bottler’s marketing region could be measured.
Inference—Pepsi vs.
Coca-Cola Solution When the preferences of 1,000 consumers are used to estimate those of
all consumers in a region, the estimate will not exactly mirror the preferences of the
population. For example, if the taste test shows that 56% of the 1,000 cola consumers
preferred Pepsi, it does not follow (nor is it likely) that exactly 56% of all cola drinkers
in the region prefer Pepsi. Nevertheless, we can use sound statistical reasoning (which
we’ll explore later in the text) to ensure that the sampling procedure will generate
estimates that are almost certainly within a specified limit of the true percentage of all
cola consumers who prefer Pepsi. For example, such reasoning might assure us that the
estimate of the preference for Pepsi is almost certainly within 5% of the preference
of the population. The implication is that the actual preference for Pepsi is between
51% [i.e., 156 - 52%] and 61% [i.e., 156 + 52%]—that is, 156 { 52%. This interval
represents a measure of the reliability of the inference.

Look Ahead The interval 56 { 5 is called a confidence interval, since we are confident
that the true percentage of cola consumers who prefer Pepsi in a taste test falls into the
range (51, 61). In Chapter 7, we learn how to assess the degree of confidence (e.g., a 90%
or 95% level of confidence) in the interval.
■

Statistics in Action Revisited identifying the Population, Sample, and inference

Consider the 2013 Pew Internet & American Life Project sur- are descriptive statistics that pro-
vey on social networking. In particular, consider the survey vide information on the popularity
results on the use of social networking sites like Facebook. of social networking in past years.
The experimental unit for the study is an adult (the person Since 73% of the surveyed adults in
answering the question), and the variable measured is the re- 2013 used an online social network-
sponse (“yes” or “no”) to the question. ing site, the Pew Research Center
The Pew Research Center reported that 1,445 adult inferred that usage of social net-
Internet users participated in the study. Obviously, that num- working sites continues its upward
ber is not all of the adult Internet users in the United States. trend, with more and more adults
Consequently, the 1,445 responses represent a sample selected getting online each year. That is,
from the much larger population of all adult Internet users. the researchers used the descriptive
Earlier surveys found that 55% of adults used an on- statistics from the sample to make an inference about the
line social networking site in 2006 and 65% in 2008. These current population of U.S. adults’ use of social networking.

1.4 Types of Data

You have learned that statistics is the science of data and that data are obtained by
measuring the values of one or more variables on the units in the sample (or population).
All data (and hence the variables we measure) can be classified as one of two general
types: quantitative data and qualitative data.
Quantitative data are data that are measured on a naturally occurring numerical
scale.* The following are examples of quantitative data:
1. The temperature (in degrees Celsius) at which each piece in a sample of
20 pieces of heat-resistant plastic begins to melt

*Quantitative data can be subclassified as either interval data or ratio data. For ratio data, the origin (i.e., the
value 0) is a meaningful number. But the origin has no meaning with interval data. Consequently, we can add
and subtract interval data, but we can’t multiply and divide them. Of the four quantitative data sets listed as
examples, (1) and (3) are interval data while (2) and (4) are ratio data.
10 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

2. The current unemployment rate (measured as a percentage) in each of the 50

states
3. The scores of a sample of 150 law school applicants on the LSAT, a standard-
ized law school entrance exam administered nationwide
4. The number of convicted murderers who receive the death penalty each year
over a 10-year period

Quantitative data are measurements that are recorded on a naturally occurring

numerical scale.

In contrast, qualitative data cannot be measured on a natural numerical scale; they

can only be classified into categories.* (For this reason, this type of data is also called
categorical data.) Examples of qualitative data include the following:
1. The political party affiliation (Democrat, Republican, or Independent) in a
sample of 50 voters
2. The defective status (defective or not) of each of 100 computer chips manufac-
tured by Intel
3. The size of a car (subcompact, compact, midsize, or full size) rented by each of
a sample of 30 business travelers
4. A taste tester’s ranking (best, worst, etc.) of four brands of barbecue sauce for
a panel of 10 testers
Often, we assign arbitrary numerical values to qualitative data for ease of com-
puter entry and analysis. But these assigned numerical values are simply codes: They
cannot be meaningfully added, subtracted, multiplied, or divided. For example, we might
code Democrat = 1, Republican = 2, and Independent = 3. Similarly, a taste tester
might rank the barbecue sauces from 1 (best) to 4 (worst). These are simply arbitrarily
selected numerical codes for the categories and have no utility beyond that.

Qualitative (or categorical) data are measurements that cannot be measured on a

natural numerical scale; they can only be classified into one of a group of categories.

Example 1.4
Data Types—Army Corps
of Engineers Study of a
Contaminated River
Problem Chemical and manufacturing plants often discharge toxic-waste materials such
as DDT into nearby rivers and streams. These toxins can adversely affect the plants
and animals inhabiting the river and the riverbank. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
conducted a study of fish in the Tennessee River (in Alabama) and its three tributary
creeks: Flint Creek, Limestone Creek, and Spring Creek. A total of 144 fish were
captured, and the following variables were measured for each:
1. River/creek where each fish was captured
2. Species (channel catfish, largemouth bass, or smallmouth buffalo fish)
3. Length (centimeters)
4. Weight (grams)
5. DDT concentration (parts per million)
(For future analyses, these data are saved in the FISHDDT file.) Classify each of
the five variables measured as quantitative or qualitative.

Solution The variables length, weight, and DDT concentration are quantitative because
each is measured on a numerical scale: length in centimeters, weight in grams, and DDT in

*Qualitative data can be subclassified as either nominal data or ordinal data. The categories of an ordinal
data set can be ranked or meaningfully ordered, but the categories of a nominal data set can’t be ordered.
Of the four qualitative data sets listed as examples, (1) and (2) are nominal and (3) and (4) are ordinal.
 section 1.5 ■ collecting Data: Sampling and related issues 11

parts per million. In contrast, river/creek and species cannot be measured quantitatively:
They can only be classified into categories (e.g., channel catfish, largemouth bass, and
smallmouth buffalo fish for species). Consequently, data on river/creek and species are
qualitative.

Look Ahead It is essential that you understand whether the data you are interested in
are quantitative or qualitative, since the statistical method appropriate for describing,
reporting, and analyzing the data depends on the data type (quantitative or qualitative).
■ Now Work Exercise 1.12

We demonstrate many useful methods for analyzing quantitative and qualitative data
in the remaining chapters of the text. But first, we discuss some important ideas on data
collection in the next section.

1.5 Collecting Data: Sampling and Related issues

Once you decide on the type of data—quantitative or qualitative—appropriate for the
problem at hand, you’ll need to collect the data. Generally, you can obtain data in three
different ways:
1. From a published source
2. From a designed experiment
3. From an observational study (e.g., a survey)
Sometimes, the data set of interest has already been collected for you and is avail-
able in a published source, such as a book, journal, or newspaper. For example, you may
want to examine and summarize the divorce rates (i.e., number of divorces per 1,000
population) in the 50 states of the United States. You can find this data set (as well as nu-
merous other data sets) at your library in the Statistical Abstract of the United States, pub-
lished annually by the U.S. government. Similarly, someone who is interested in monthly
mortgage applications for new home construction would find this data set in the Survey
of Current Business, another government publication. Other examples of published data
sources include The Wall Street Journal (financial data) and Elias Sports Bureau (sports
information). The Internet (World Wide Web) now provides a medium by which data
from published sources are readily obtained.*
A second method of collecting data involves conducting a designed experiment, in
which the researcher exerts strict control over the units (people, objects, or things) in the
study. For example, an often-cited medical study investigated the potential of aspirin in
preventing heart attacks. Volunteer physicians were divided into two groups: the treat-
ment group and the control group. Each physician in the treatment group took one aspirin
tablet a day for one year, while each physician in the control group took an aspirin-free
placebo made to look like an aspirin tablet. The researchers—not the physicians under
study—controlled who received the aspirin (the treatment) and who received the pla-
cebo. As you’ll learn in Chapter 10, a properly designed experiment allows you to extract
more information from the data than is possible with an uncontrolled study.
Finally, observational studies can be employed to collect data. In an observational
study, the researcher observes the experimental units in their natural setting and records
the variable(s) of interest. For example, a child psychologist might observe and record the
level of aggressive behavior of a sample of fifth graders playing on a school playground.
Similarly, a zoologist may observe and measure the weights of newborn elephants born
in captivity. Unlike a designed experiment, an observational study is a study in which the
researcher makes no attempt to control any aspect of the experimental units.

*With published data, we often make a distinction between the primary source and a secondary source. If the
publisher is the original collector of the data, the source is primary. Otherwise, the data is secondary-
source data.
12 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

The most common type of observational study is a survey, where the researcher
samples a group of people, asks one or more questions, and records the responses.
Probably the most familiar type of survey is the political poll, conducted by any one
of a number of organizations (e.g., Harris, Gallup, Roper, and CNN) and designed
to predict the outcome of a political election. Another familiar survey is the Nielsen
survey, which provides the major networks with information on the most-watched
programs on television. Surveys can be conducted through the mail, with telephone
interviews, or with in-person interviews. Although in-person surveys are more expensive
than mail or telephone surveys, they may be necessary when complex information is
to be collected.

A designed experiment is a data collection method where the researcher exerts full
control over the characteristics of the experimental units sampled. These experi-
ments typically involve a group of experimental units that are assigned the treatment
and an untreated (or control) group.

An observational study is a data collection method where the experimental units

sampled are observed in their natural setting. No attempt is made to control the
characteristics of the experimental units sampled. (Examples include opinion polls
and surveys.)

Regardless of which data collection method is employed, it is likely that the data
will be a sample from some population. And if we wish to apply inferential statistics, we
must obtain a representative sample.

A representative sample exhibits characteristics typical of those possessed by the

target population.

For example, consider a political poll conducted during a presidential election year.
Assume that the pollster wants to estimate the percentage of all 145 million registered
voters in the United States who favor the incumbent president. The pollster would
be unwise to base the estimate on survey data collected for a sample of voters from
the incumbent’s own state. Such an estimate would almost certainly be biased high;
consequently, it would not be very reliable.
The most common way to satisfy the representative sample requirement is to select
a random sample. A simple random sample ensures that every subset of fixed size in the
population has the same chance of being included in the sample. If the pollster samples
1,500 of the 145 million voters in the population so that every subset of 1,500 voters has
an equal chance of being selected, she has devised a random sample.

A simple random sample of n experimental units is a sample selected from the pop-
ulation in such a way that every different sample of size n has an equal chance of
selection.

The procedure for selecting a simple random sample typically relies on a random
number generator. Random number generators are available in table form online*, and
they are built into most statistical software packages. The SAS, MINITAB, and SPSS sta-
tistical software packages all have easy-to-use random number generators for creating a
random sample. The next example illustrates the procedure.

*One of many free online random number generators is available at www.randomizer.org.

 section 1.5 ■ collecting Data: Sampling and related issues 13

Example 1.5 Problem Suppose you wish to assess the feasibility of building a new high school. As
part of your study, you would like to gauge the opinions of people living close to the
Generating a Simple
proposed building site. The neighborhood adjacent to the site has 711 homes. Use a
Random Sample— random number generator to select a simple random sample of 20 households from the
Selecting Households neighborhood to participate in the study.
for a Feasibility Study
Solution In this study, your population of interest consists of the 711 households in the
adjacent neighborhood. To ensure that every possible sample of 20 households selected
from the 711 has an equal chance of selection (i.e., to ensure a simple random sample),
first assign a number from 1 to 711 to each of the households in the population. These
numbers were entered into MINITAB. Now, apply the random number generator of
MINITAB, requesting that 20 households be selected without replacement. Figure 1.3
shows the output from MINITAB. You can see that households numbered 78, 152, 157,
177, 216, . . . , 690 are the households to be included in your sample.

Look Back It can be shown (proof omitted) that there are over 3 * 1038 possible samples
of size 20 that can be selected from the 711 households. Random number generators
guarantee (to a certain degree of approximation) that each possible sample has an equal
chance of being selected.
■

In addition to simple random samples, there are more complex random sampling
designs that can be employed. These include (but are not limited to) stratified random
sampling, cluster sampling, systematic sampling, and randomized response sampling.
Brief descriptions of each follow. (For more details on the use of these sampling meth-
ods, consult the references at the end of this chapter.)
Stratified random sampling is typically used when the experimental units asso-
ciated with the population can be separated into two or more groups of units, called
strata, where the characteristics of the experimental units are more similar within
strata than across strata. Random samples of experimental units are obtained for each
strata, then the units are combined to form the complete sample. For example, if you
are gauging opinions of voters on a polarizing issue, like government-sponsored health
Figure 1.3 care, you may want to stratify on political affiliation (Republicans and Democrats),
Random Selection of 20 making sure that representative samples of both Republicans and Democrats (in pro-
Households Using MINITAB portion to the number of Republicans and Democrats in the voting population) are
included in your survey.
Sometimes it is more convenient and logical to sample natural groupings (clus-
ters) of experimental units first, then collect data from all experimental units within
each cluster. This involves the use of cluster sampling. For example, suppose a marketer
for a large upscale restaurant chain wants to find out whether customers like the new
menu. Rather than collect a simple random sample of all customers (which would be
very difficult and costly to do), the marketer will randomly sample 10 of the 150 restau-
rant locations (clusters), then interview all customers eating at each of the 10 locations
on a certain night.
Another popular sampling method is systematic sampling. This method involves
systematically selecting every kth experimental unit from a list of all experimental units.
For example, every fifth person who walks into a shopping mall could be asked whether
he or she owns a smart phone. Or a quality control engineer at a manufacturing plant
may select every 10th item produced on an assembly line for inspection.
A fourth alternative to simple random sampling is randomized response sam-
pling. This design is particularly useful when the questions of the pollsters are likely
to elicit false answers. For example, suppose each person in a sample of wage earners
is asked whether he or she cheated on an income tax return. A cheater might lie, thus
biasing an estimate of the true likelihood of someone cheating on his or her tax return.
14 chapter 1 ■ Statistics, Data, and Statistical Thinking

To circumvent this problem, each person is presented with two questions, one being the
object of the survey and the other an innocuous question, such as:
1. Did you ever cheat on your federal income tax return?
2. Did you drink coffee this morning?
One of the questions is chosen at random to answer by the wage earner by flipping a
coin; however, which particular question is answered is unknown to the interviewer. In
this way, the random response method attempts to elicit an honest response to a sensitive
question. Sophisticated statistical methods are then employed to derive an estimate of
percentage of “yes” responses to the sensitive question.
No matter what type of sampling design you employ to collect the data for your
study, be careful to avoid selection bias. Selection bias occurs when some experimental
units in the population have less chance of being included in the sample than others. This
results in samples that are not representative of the population. Consider an opinion poll
that employs either a telephone survey or mail survey. After collecting a random sample of
phone numbers or mailing addresses, each person in the sample is contacted via telephone
or the mail and a survey conducted. Unfortunately, these types of surveys often suffer from
selection bias due to nonresponse. Some individuals may not be home when the phone
rings, or others may refuse to answer the questions or mail back the questionnaire. As a
consequence, no data is obtained for the nonrespondents in the sample. If the nonrespon-
dents and respondents differ greatly on an issue, then nonresponse bias exits. For example,
those who choose to answer a question on a school board issue may have a vested inter-
est in the outcome of the survey—say, parents with children of school age, schoolteachers
whose jobs may be in jeopardy, or citizens whose taxes might be substantially affected.
Others with no vested interest may have an opinion on the issue but might not take the
time to respond.

Selection bias results when a subset of experimental units in the population has little
or no chance of being selected for the sample.

Nonresponse bias is a type of selection bias that results when data on all experimen-
tal units in a sample are not obtained.

Finally, even if your sample is representative of the population, the data collected
may suffer from measurement error. That is, the values of the data (quantitative or qual-
itative) may be inaccurate. In sample surveys, opinion polls, and so on, measurement
error often results from ambiguous or leading questions. Consider the survey question:
“How often did you change the oil in your car last year?” It is not clear whether the re-
searcher is wanting to know how often you personally changed the oil in your car or how
often you took your car into a service station to get an oil change. The ambiguous ques-
tion may lead to inaccurate responses. On the other hand, consider the question: “Does
the new health plan offer more comprehensive medical services at less cost than the old
one?” The way the question is phrased leads the reader to believe that the new plan is
better and to a “yes” response—a response that is more desirable to the researcher. A
better, more neutral way to phrase the question is: “Which health plan offers more com-
prehensive medical services at less cost, the old one or the new one?”

Measurement error refers to inaccuracies in the values of the data collected. In sur-
veys, the error may be due to ambiguous or leading questions and the interviewer’s
effect on the respondent.

We conclude this section with two examples involving actual sampling studies.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
veistokuva, vuode. Kaikki oli mennyttä. Hän ei koskaan tulisi takaisin
enää.

Hänen sydämensä sykki kovasti, ja hän avasi piirongin uudestaan,

kun hän kuuli askeleita portailta. Hän tunsi nuo askeleet. Ne olivat
paronin. Roma seisahtui tuntien sanomatonta kauhua ja katsoi
oveen. Se oli hiukan auki, kuten garibaldilainen sen oli jättänyt.

Paroni oli astumaisillaan sisään tuosta ovesta. Hän läheni —

kuolemaansa. Jokin yliluonnollinen voima pakotti häntä tulemaan.

Romaa pyörrytti, ja joka jäsen vapisi. Askeleet lähenivät. Vihdoin

ne saapuivat portaiden päähän, ja ovella kuului koputus. Ensin
Roma ei voinut vastata, ja koputus uudistui.

Sitten hän tointui taas. Se oli pikemmin Kaikkivaltiaan tahto kuin

hänen omansa. Sen täytyi tapahtua. Jumala oli määrännyt hänet
tuon rikoksellisen miehen surmaajaksi.

»Astukaa sisääni» huusi Roma.

V.

Luonnonlakien joukossa on eräs äärettömän suuri, ja se sisältää

ehkä ihmisluonteen syvimmät salaisuudet — mukautumisen laki.
Lääkärissä, tuomarissa, sanomalehtimiehessä, papissa — kaikissa
huomaamme heidän ammattinsa turmiollisen vaikutuksen, ja
kiusallisimpia esimerkkejä luonteen alistumisesta
välttämättömyyksien alle on valtiomiehen sielu. Mutta olemuksen
suurina hetkinä, voiton ja tappion, rakkauden ja intohimon hetkinä,
häviää ammatin luoma leima, niinkuin viitta putoaa pois hartioilta, ja
ainoastaan ihminen jää jälelle.

Kun paroni heräsi lauantaiaamuna, muisti hän Romaa sangen

syvästi katuen, ja kaikki, mikä tapahtui seuraavina päivinä, pani
hänet ajattelemaan Romaa hellin mielin. Aamulla adjutantti toi
hänelle rasian, joka sisälsi Annunziata-ritarikunnan merkit, ja piti
muodollisen puheen. Paroni leikki jalokivillä koristetulla nauhalla ja
siitä riippuvalla kultamitalilla, kun hän vastasi puheeseen etiketin
määräämin sanoin, mutta hän ajatteli koko ajan Romaa ja mitä iloa
tämä olisi voinut tuntea tervehtiessään häntä kuninkaan serkkuna.

Puolenpäivän aikaan hän sai sähkösanoman, joka ilmoitti hänelle

hänen mielisairaan vaimonsa kuoleman, ja hän läksi heti linnaansa
Albanon vuoristoon. Siellä hän oli niin kauan, että ennätti nähdä, kun
ruumis siirrettiin kirkkoon, ja palasi sitten heti Roomaan. Nazzareno
kantoi asemalle pienen laukun täynnä kirjoituksia, joita paroni oli
tutkinut junassa istuessaan. He kulkivat ruusupuun ohi, joka oli
istutettu Roman ensimmäisenä syntymäpäivänä Italiassa. Se oli
täynnä valkoisia ruusuja. Paroni poimi yhden niistä ja piti sitä
napinlävessään koko paluumatkan.

Ennen puoliyötä hän oli palannut Piazza Leonelle, jossa

commendatore Angelelli odotti häntä kertoakseen uutisen Rossin
vangitsemisesta. Paroni antoi määräyksen, että Koiton toimittaja heti
lähetettäisiin hänen luokseen, jotta hän voisi tehdä ehdotuksen.
Mutta huolimatta tyytyväisyydestä, jonka Rossin kiinniottoja
mahdollisesti seuraava täydellinen masentaminen hänessä herätti,
hän tunsi sääliä Romaa kohtaan.

Sunnuntaina hän puheli sanomalehtimiesten kanssa, antoi

viimeiset juhlaa koskevat käskyt ja toimitti jos jotakin. Maanantaina
juhla alkoi messulla. Panteonin piazzalla seisoi loistava joukko
sotilaita kiiltävät kypärät päässä. Tuon komean henkivartiaväen
keskitse pieni kuningas astui palatsiinsa musiikin soittaessa
kansallishymniä. Vanhassa Panteonissa, jonka kattoon oli ripustettu
kuninkaallisella vaakunalla koristettu valkoinen silkkiverho, paloi
lukemattomia valkeita. Väliaikaisella alttarilla, joka oli koristettu
valkoisella ja kullalla, heloitti kynttilöitä, ja kuoro, jota kuuluisa
oopperansäveltäjä johti, oli kultaisen ristikon takana. Kuningas ja
kuningatar sekä kuninkaalliset prinssit istuivat tuoleilla samettisen
verhotaivaan alla, ja eri lavoja oli rakennettu ministereille,
senaattoreille, parlamentinjäsenille ja vieraiden valtakuntain
lähettiläille. Uskonto oli aivan välttämätön kaikissa valtion
juhlamenoissa, ja tuo messu oli oivallinen valtiollinen temppu, jonka
paroni itse oli järjestänyt. Hän oli unohtanut Jumalan, mutta hän oli
muistanut kuningasta, olipa ajatellut Romaakin. Roma itki aina
uskonnollisissa juhlamenoissa ja olisi varmaan vuodattanut
kyyneleitä, jos olisi ollut läsnä nyt.

Panteonista seurue läksi Capitoliumiin soittokunnan soittaessa

pitkin katuja riemusäveliään. Tuo komea rakennus oli täynnä
loistavaa silkkipukuista yleisöä kunniamerkit rinnassa. Pormestari
luki puheen, jossa hän mainitsi, kuinka paljon onnettomuuksia Italia
oli kokenut, ja lopetti viittaamalla kansan hyvään toimeentuloon
nykyisen hallitsijasuvun aikana. Vastauksessaan kuningas kehui
armeijaa rauhan- ja yhteyden pilariksi ja lopetti ylistämällä
pääministeriä, jonka voimakas johto oli hävittänyt epäkäytännöllisten
politikoitsijain hämärät unelmat, jotka olivat uhanneet valtaistuimen
vakavuutta ja uskollisten kansalaisten menestystä.

Paroni vastasi lyhyesti, ettei hän ollut tehnyt muuta kuin

velvollisuutensa kuninkaan hyväksi, joka oli melkein tasavaltainen
hallitsija, ja maansa hyväksi, joka oli vapain maa koko maailmassa.
Mitä taaskin haaveilijoihin ja heidän haaveisiinsa tulee, saattavat
muutamat maanpakolaiset Zürichissä ulkomaalaisten melun
kiihoittamina uneksia yleisen tasavallan perustamista eri
kansakuntien ja rotujen kesken sekä Rooman kohottamista sen
pääkaupungiksi, mutta ne ovat ainoastaan heikkojen aivojen sekavia
unelmia.

»Vaarallisiako?» huudahti paroni lopuksi hymyillen. »Kuka voisi

pitää ikuisia uneksijoita vaarallisina?»

Kuningas nauroi, senaattorit huusivat eläköötä, naiset heiluttivat

nenäliinojaan, ja taas paroni muisti Roman.
 Juhlakulku Kvirinaaliin oli yhä kohoavaa riemukulkua. Joka talosta
liehui lippuja, joka ikkunassa oli punaisia ja keltaisia kudoksia.
Corson varrella olevissa klubeissa oli ahdinkoon asti prinssejä,
ylimyksiä, valtiomiehiä ja kuuluisia muukalaisia. Kaartilaisia, punaiset
töyhdöt hatuissa, seisoi rivissä kadulla, ja käytävät olivat täynnä
uskollisia alamaisia. Se oli loistava juhla, juhla, jommoista Rooma
rakasti.

Maakuntien päälliköt sekä kansalaisia johtajineen ja lippuineen

marssi Kvirinaaliin, kuten paroni oli määrännyt, huutaen kuninkaan
esiin parvekkeelle. Kuningas totteli kutsua ja kiitti yleisöä. Mutta
astuttuaan takaisin huoneeseen nuori kuningas näytti
hermostuneelta ja hätääntyneeltä. Hän oli hyvää tarkoittava mies,
hyväavuinen, mutta aivan heikko. Hän rakasti kansaansa ja uneksi
olevansa maansa vapauttaja ja yhdistäjä ja hän vakuutti aina
olevansa hyvä katolilainen, vaikka paavi oli käytännössä hänet
pannaan julistanut, joskaan ei nimellisesti. Seisoessaan parvekkeella
rumpujen jyristessä ja kuninkaallisen marssin kaikuessa hän muisti,
että tällä paikalla paavikunta oli viettänyt, monta muistettavaa
hetkeä, ja häntä rupesi äkkiä peloittamaan. Paroni lohdutti häntä.

»Omasta puolestani», sanoi paroni, »olen pitkällisen uskonnon

tutkimisen jälkeen käynyt epäilijäksi. Kaksikymmenvuotiaana koetin
ymmärtää kirkon dogmeja ja uskon salaisuuksia.
Viisikolmattavuotiaana tiesin, ettei paavi itsekään niitä ymmärrä. Siitä
syystä olen lakannut ajattelemasta sellaisia asioita ja kumarran nyt
elämän laeille.»

»Ei voi aina voittaa taikauskoa», sanoi kuningas, »ja kun seisoin
tuolla ulkona, johtui mieleeni, että tämä ilo kohta loppuu ja sitten…»
 »Jos minä voin vapahtaa teidän majesteettinne vastuunalaisuuden
taakasta…» alkoi paroni.

Kuningas kutsui ylhäisen virkamiehen luokseen ja antoi käskyn,

että heti on järjestettävä asiakirjat, joilla paroni Bonelli nimitetään
kuninkaan käskystä Italian diktaattoriksi kuudeksi kuukaudeksi tästä
päivästä lukien. »Jospa Roma nyt olisi täällä», ajatteli paroni.

Ilta tuli, ja päivälliset kuninkaallisessa palatsissa olivat pelkkää

loistoa. Ruhtinatar toisensa jälkeen astui sisään säteillen
timanteissa. Paronin kaulassa riippui Annunziata-ketju, ja
ulkomaalaiset lähettiläät, jotka hallitsijainsa edustajina olivat läsnä,
tekivät tilaa hänelle, ja hän istui kuningattaren oikealla puolella.
Hänen omalla oikealla puolellaan istui pikku prinsessa Bellini, jolla oli
Annunziata-ritariston arvo miesvainajansa sukuperän tähden. Hän oli
juuri palannut Pariisista, jossa hänen kasvonsa olivat emaljeeratut, ja
hän vältti nauramista, jottei emalji halkeaisi, mutta hänen kielensä
liikkui yhtämittaa.

»Ja te ette ole nähnyt Donna Romaa… ettekö? Ah, kaikki puhuvat
siitä. Oli hirveätä, että hän muutti asumaan sen miehen huoneistoon.
Se oli vallan kamalaa, ja se erotti hänet seuraelämästä ikipäiviksi.
Olkoonpa hänellä mitkä syyt tahansa, ei kukaan kunnon mies enää
voi naida häntä. Minä en ole koskaan antanut kenenkään miehen
nukkua talossani miesvainajani kuoleman jälkeen. Kun veljenikin
tulee Roomaan, lähetän hänet aina hotelliin… Mutta rakas Roma oli
aina niin välinpitämätön… Hän kuljeskeli yksin kuin kyökkipiika…
Entä Rossi? Hänet kai mestataan… niinkö? Tiedättekö, minä pidin
hänestä! Hänellä oli komea vartalo. Hän muistutti erästä
englantilaista lakeijaa, joka oli palveluksessani.»

»Nukkuiko hän teidän talossanne?»

 »Tietysti. Minä olin itse valinnut hänet. Hän oli naimisissa ja mitä
uskollisin — ja hänen vaimonsa oli kauhean ruma.»

Paroni katsoi ivallisesti hymyillen tuohon vanhanpuoleiseen

kaunottareen verraten hänen muotisiveyttään sen tytön
teeskentelemättömään siveellisyyteen, jota prinsessa soimasi.
»Roma on enemmän arvoinen kuin koko valtakunnallinen
tuommoisia naisia», ajatteli paroni.

Päivällisen jälkeen hän talutti kuningattaren valtaistuimelle

samettisen kunniakatoksen alle, muinoin paavien kappelina
olleeseen komeaan huoneeseen. Sitten tanssiaiset alkoivat. Mikä
valotulva! Mikä timanttien säihky! Mitä ihania, hienohipiäisiä kasvoja!
Mitä paisuvia rintoja ja pyöreitä muotoja! Mitä elämän ja lemmen
hehkua sadoissa loistavissa silmissä! Mutta paroni muisti vielä
kauniimmat kasvot, vielä suloisemman muodon kuin mitä hänen
silmänsä täällä näkivät, ja selittäen kuninkaalle, että hänen oli pakko
Rossin saapumisen tähden poistua, hän läksi palatsista.

Tulikärpäset värähtelivät Kvirinaalin pimeässä puutarhassa, kun

paroni kulki kaikuvien pihojen poikki, ja iso tori edessä, kirkkaassa
sähkövalossa, oli niin hiljaa, ettei kuulunut muuta kuin vahtien
astuntaa portilla.

Paroni läksi Piazza Navonalle päin. Hänen itsesyytöksensä

kävivät yhä ankarammiksi. Hän muisti uhkauksiaan ja sanoi
itselleen, ettei hän koskaan ollut aikonut panna toimeen niitä. Niiden
tarkoitus oli ainoastaan vaikuttaa Roman mieleen, kuten usein
tapahtui jokapäiväisessäkin elämässä.

Paroni muisti edelliset hovitanssiaiset ja hän tunsi häpeätä. Mutta

tuon yön onnettomuuteen eivät olleet syynä kylmät laskelmat, kuten
hän oli ennen sanonut. Syyt olivat yksinkertaisemmat,
inhimillisemmät — rakkaus kauniiseen naiseen, joka oli
liukumaisillaan pois häneltä, kamala tunne siitä, että hän, paroni, oli
sidottu vaimoon, joka ei ollut vaimo, ja sitten vielä hetken hurmaava
pyörrytys.

Vähätpä siitä! Roma ei tullut kärsimään tuon tähden. Paroni oli

kaikki maksava. Kun ajatteli Roman sopimatonta käytöstä, oli se,
minkä paroni aikoi tehdä, kerrassaan suurta, mutta Roma saa
nähdä, että muutkin saattavat uhrautua.

Kansa oli Pinciolla ja kadut olivat hiljaiset. Kun paroni saapui

Piazza Navonalle, oli siellä tuskin ainoatakaan ihmistä, ja hänen oli
vaikeaa löytää talo. Ei kukaan nähnyt hänen astuvan sisään, ei
kukaan tullut häntä vastaan portailla. Sitä parempi. Häntä hiukan
hävetti.

Kun hän oli koputtanut kaksi kertaa, pyysi ääni, jota hän ei
tuntenut, häntä astumaan sisään. Kun hän avasi oven, seisoi Roma
hattu päässä ja harso silmillä hänen edessään selin piironkiin.
Paronin mielestä hän näytti pelästyneeltä ja sairaalta.
VI.

»Rakas Roma», sanoi paroni, »tuon sinulle hyviä uutisia. Kaikki on

käynyt hyvin. Ei olisi voinut käydä sen paremmin, ja minä tulin
onnittelemaan sinua.»

Paroni oli huomattavasti kiihoittunut ja puhui nopeasti ja

äänekkäästi.

»Mies vangittiin rajalla — olet kai kuullut siitä. Hän saapui

yöjunassa lauantaina ja mahdollisten metelien estämiseksi hänet
pidätettiin Milanossa tähän aamuun asti.»

Roma seisoi vielä selin piironkiin.

»Uutinen oli kaikissa lehdissä eilen, armaani, ja sillä oli mainio

vaikutus riemujuhlan avajaisiin. Kun kuningas meni messuun tänä
aamuna, oli kapina saanut kuoliniskunsa ja meidän
levottomuutemme oli lopussa. Tänä iltana tuo mies saapuu
Roomaan, ja tunnin perästä hän on varmassa turvassa vankilassa.»

Joka hermo Roman ruumiissa värisi, eikä hän yrittänytkään puhua.

 »Kaikki on sinun työtäsi, lapseni — sinun eikä minun. Sinun viisas
järkesi on saanut sen aikaan. 'Antakaa se mies minulle', niin sinä
sanoit. Minä annoin hänet sinulle, ja sinä toimitit kaikki.»

Roma pusersi huuliaan yhteen ja koetti hillitä itseään.

»Mutta mitä sinä oletkaan kärsinyt päämääräsi saavuttamiseksi!

Ylenkatsetta, solvauksia! Eikä ainoastaan sitä, vaan myöskin
köyhyyttä, jopa kurjuuttakin, alennusta, häpeää! Ei ole kumma, että
voitit tuon miehen. Yleisökin pettyi. Ja minä itsekin melkein petyin.»

»Nytkö se on tapahtuva?» ajatteli Roma. Paroni seisoi uunimatolla

vastapäätä häntä.

»Mutta sinä tiesit mitä teit, armas. Se kuului kaikki ohjelmaasi.

Sinä ajoit miestä eteenpäin. Ja hän antautui sinun valtaasi. Sinä sait
selville kaikki hänen sielunsa salaisuudet. Ja kun hetki tuli, olit
valmis. Sinä täytit alkuperäisen aikomuksesi. 'Hän on sortuva, kun
hänen toiveensa ovat ylimmillään', niin sanoit.»

Roman sydän sykki aivan kuin se olisi tahtonut särkeä siteensä.

»Hän on sortunut. Kiitos sinulle, tuo järjestetyn yhteiskunnan

vihollinen, tuo naisten panettelija on masennettu. Mikä viisaus! Mikä
kärsivällisyys! Mikä valtiotaito! Ja mikä tahdon lujuus ja tarmo! Kuka
uskaltaa sanoa, etteivät naiset enää saa suuria aikaan?»

»Kuinka minä vihaan tuota miestä!» ajatteli Roma. Paroni oli

avannut päällystakkinsa niin että hänen leveä, valkoinen
rintamuksensa näkyi, ja sen päällä kiilsi Annunziata-ketju. Hän astui
uunimatolle aavistamatta, että tuho odotti häntä.
 »Puolet Euroopan sanomalehdistä tulee sisältämään kertomuksia
tuon suuren suunnitelman epäonnistumisesta. Oli toinen
suunnitelma, armas, joka onnistui. Eurooppa saa kuulla siitä
myöskin, ja huomisaamuna on maailma tietävä, mitä nainen voi
tehdä rangaistakseen miestä, joka on solvaissut häntä.»

»Miksi en tee sitä nyt?» ajatteli Roma. Hän kosketti revolveria,

joka oli piirongilla hänen takanaan, hengittäen nopeasti ja kovaa.

»Kuinka hienosto on hämmästyvä kuullessaan sen! Nyt se jo

epäilee jotakin. Sanoinhan sinulle uskottelevani sille, että sinä
näyttelet opittua osaa, vaikka ihmiset saattavat luulla muuta. Mutta
kun hienosto näkee sinun palaavan entiseen elämääsi…»

Paroni koetti nauraa hiukan.

»Sinä saat kaikki takaisin, armas. Vaunut, jalokivet, huoneiston,

aivan niinkuin ne jätit. Olen pitänyt huolta kaikesta, ja minä päivänä
tahansa voit saada kaiken jälleen.»

Roman sydän tykytti tuskallisesti.

»Mutta etkö istu, lapseni? Minulla on hiukan sanottavaa sinulle. Se

on tärkeä uutinen. Paronitar on kuollut. Niin, hän kuoli lauantaina,
raukka. Pitäisikö minun olla ulkokullattu ja itkeä? Miksi sitä tekisin?
Viisitoista vuotta julma laki, jota minä en katolisessa maassa
uskaltanut rikkoa hakemalla eroa, on kahlehtinut minut elävään
ruumiiseen. Täytyykö minun olla surevinani nyt, kun taakka on
pudonnut?… Roma, istu, armas, älä seiso noin tuossa… Roma,
minä olen vapaa, ja me voimme mennä naimisiin. Vihdoinkin sinä
voit tulla vaimokseni, kuten aina olemme aikoneet.»
 »Nyt!» ajatteli Roma ja kumartui hiukan eteenpäin.

»Ah, älä pelkää mitään. Minä en pelkää, eikä sinunkaan tarvitse

pelätä. Huhu on yhdistänyt meidän nimemme jo. Mutta entä sitten?
Minä en välitä siitäkään, että sinun nimesi on yhdistetty toisen
miehen nimeen. Ei kukaan ole solvaiseva sinua enää, kaikesta
entisyydestä huolimatta. Minne minä menen, sinne pitää sinunkin
mennä. Elleivät he tule toimeen ilman minua, eivät he saa tulla
toimeen myöskään ilman sinua, ja huolimatta kaikesta on sinut
vastaanotettava kaikkialla.»

»Joko olette sanonut kaikki sanottavanne?» kysyi Roma.

»En kaikkea. On asia, jonka tahdoin kertoa sinulle ennen

sanomalehtiä. Kuningas on nimittänyt minut diktaattoriksi kuudeksi
kuukaudeksi. Se merkitsee sitä, että sinua tullaan palvelemaan
enemmän kuin itse kuningatarta. Mikä kosto! Samat naiset, jotka
ovat kääntäneet selkänsä sinulle, tulevat nyt kumartamaan sinulle.
Sinä murskaat kaikki muurit. Sinä tulet…»

»Odottakaa!» sanoi Roma.

Paroni oli lähestynyt häntä, ja Roma kohotti kätensä.

»Te uskotte, että alistun tuollaiseen valheeseen?»

»Mihin valheeseen, lapseni?»

»Uskotteko, että syytin Davido Rossia kukistaakseni hänet? Totta

on, että syytin häntä — minä onneton nainen — mutta te tiedätte
vallan hyvin, miksi sen tein. Minut pakotettiin siihen. Te pakotitte
minut.»
 Kuullessaan oman äänensä Roma tunsi kyynelten nousevan
silmiinsä.

»Ja nyt te pyydätte minua uskottelemaan, että kaikki tehtiin

huonossa tarkoituksessa, ja tarjoatte minulle palkan rikoksesta.»

Hänen silmänsä salamoivat ja hänen äänensä oli käheä vihasta.

»Luuletteko, että minä olen murhaaja, jolle voitte tarjota veren

hinnan? Ettekö häpeä? Te tulitte tänne pyytämään, että menisin
naimisiin teidän kanssanne, vaikka tiedätte, että olen jo naimisissa
— ja päällepäätteeksi tulitte tänne, mieheni huoneisiin.»

Hänen loistavat silmänsä tulvivat kyyneleitä, eikä hän voinut hallita

ääntään.

»Hän on mieheni, vaikka olisin tehnyt mitä tahansa.»

Paroni silitti viiksiään ja sanoi hellästi:

»Lapseni, jos pyysin sinua suostumaan siihen otaksumaan, että

teit kaikki erityisestä syystä, koetin sillä säästää sinulta tuskaa.
Luulin sen sinulle helpommaksi asian ollessa tällä lailla. Tahdoin
mennä takaisin alkuperäiseen tarkoitukseesi ja unohtaa kaiken välillä
olevan.»

Roma nojautui piironkiin.

»Pyysin sinua palaamaan omaan, entiseen itseesi, armas. Omaan

voimakkaaseen itseesi — jotta olisit taas nainen, joka rakastaa
elämää joka veripisarallaan — ilman sentimentaalisuutta, ilman
heikkoutta — Italian valtiatar!»
 Hänen äänensä kävi pehmeämmäksi, ja hän lisäsi hiljaa: »Jos
minua on niin paljon moitittava siitä, mitä on tapahtunut, on syynä
siihen ehkä se, että sinä ensin olit väärässä. Alussa oli minun vikani
se, että suostuin esitykseesi. Valtiomies erehtyi, ja mies sai siitä
kärsiä sitten. Luuletko olleen helppoa kestää tuota tunnetta, että
minun ollessani sidottuna ja vanhentuessani nuorempi mies vei sinut
minulta pois? Sinä et tiedä mitään mustasukkaisuudesta, lapsi —
kuinka voisitkaan tietää? — Mutta sen tuskat ovat helvetin tuskia.»

Paroni koetti vielä kerran lähestyä Romaa.

»Rakas, ole oma itsesi taas! Unohda tuo hetken rakkaus ja kohoa
uudestaan entiseen voimaasi ja viisauteesi. Minä unohdan kaikki…
enkä kysy mitä on tapahtunut. Olen valmis pyyhkimään kaikki pois,
aivan kuin sitä ei olisi ollutkaan. Ja nyt olen vapaa ja valmis
täyttämään entiset lupaukseni.»

Huolimatta hänen hellistä sanoistaan ja pehmeästä äänestään

Roma katsoi häneen sellaisin inhon tuntein, jommoista hän ei
koskaan ollut tuntenut ketään ihmisolentoa kohtaan.

»Älä vaivaa itseäsi ajattelemalla avioliittoasi, lapseni. Minä

vakuutan sinulle, että se ei ole mikään avioliitto ollenkaan.
Valtakunnan laki ei tunnusta sitä, ja kirkko voi minä hetkenä tahansa
kieltää sen, sillä se ei ole ollut sakramentti, koska sinä et ole kastettu
etkä siis kirkon opin mukaan kristitty.»

Hän astui askeleen lähemmäksi ja sanoi:

»Mutta jos olet kadottanut yhden miehen, odottaa sinua toinen —

hellempi, uskollisempi, — mies, joka voi antaa sinulle kaiken,
semmoisen miehen sijaan, joka ei voinut antaa sinulle mitään… Ja
nyt tuo toinen mies on ikipäiviksi poistunut elämästäsi. Tapahtuipa
mitä tahansa, sinä ja hän ette koskaan enää voi yhtyä. Mutta minä
olen tässä vielä… Älä vastaa ajattelematta, Roma. Ajattele, mitä
minä tarjoudun tekemään. Eikö se ole mitään, että olen valmis
vastaanottamaan kaikki ne solvaukset, joita maailma varmaan on
syytävä minua kohti siksi, että nain ankarimmin arvostellun naisen
Roomassa?»

Roma oli tukehtua vihasta ja häpeästä.

»Näet että rukoilen sinua, Roma — minä, joka en koskaan ole

rukoillut mitään keneltäkään ihmiseltä. En lapsenakaan tahtonut
rukoilla mitään, en edes omalta äidiltäni. Sen jälkeen olen toimittanut
jotakin elämässä — olen antanut kansalleni aseman kansakuntien
joukossa, maailman silmät näkevät minut sen edustajana — ja
kumminkin — kumminkin — polvistun sinun edessäsi.»

Äkillisen tunteen vallassa hän vaipui polvilleen ja koetti tarttua

Roman hameeseen. Roma vetäytyi pois, aivan kuin paronin
kosketus olisi liannut häntä.

»Nouskaa ylös», huusi hän jyrkästi. »Olen voinut tehdä väärin,

mutta huono nainen en ole. Kyllä ymmärrän sanomattannekin, mitä
uhrauksia teidän pitäisi tehdä naidaksenne minut, mutta en ikinä
rupeaisi vaimoksenne, vaikka tarjoaisitte minulle kuningattaren
kruunun.»

Paroni nousi ylös ja koetti nauraa.

»Kuten tahdot. En tietysti voi selittää sanojasi muuta kuin yhdellä

tavalla. Luulin, että rakkauteni voisi hävittää sinun katkeruutesi…
Mutta jos…» (hän alkoi kiihtyä) »jos et väiltäkään menneisyydestä,
ajattelet ehkä hiukan tulevaisuutta.»

Roma katsoi häneen uuden pelon valtaamana.

»Tietysti minä en enää aio alentaa itseäni kosimaan naista, joka

ylenkatsoo minua. On kylliksi, jos rankaisen sitä miestä, joka on
syynä siihen, että nainen, jolla olisi paljon syytä kunnioittaa minua, ei
enää minua kunnioita.

»Tarkoitatte, että koetatte saada kuninkaan rikkomaan

lupauksensa?»

»Minun ei tarvitse koettaa vaikuttaa kuninkaaseen, koska hän on

nimittänyt minut diktaattoriksi.»

»Siis kuninkaan seuraaja ei välitä kuninkaan lupauksesta, joka

koski herra Rossin saamaa anteeksiantoa?»

»Jos lähden tästä huoneesta saamatta parempaa vastausta… niin

en välitä siitä lupauksesta.»

Roma veti takaa esiin revolverin, jota hän oli pitänyt kädessään.

»Te ette koskaan lähde tästä huoneesta», sanoi hän.

Paroni seisoi aivan liikkumatta, ja syntyi kuolon hiljaisuus.

Sitten kuului pyörien ratinaa piazzalla ja heti sen jälkeen nopeita

askeleita portailta.

Roma kuuli ne. Hän vapisi kovasti ja hänen sydämensä tuntui

särkevän hänen rintansa.
 Hetken perästä kuului koputus ovelle. Sitten toinen ja sitten vielä
toinen. Se oli käskevä, kiihkeä koputus!

Roma, joka oli unohtanut paronin, seisoi kuin naulattuna

paikallaan.
Paroni oli ymmärtänyt kaiken. Hänkin seisoi muuttuneena.

Sitten kuului värähtelevä ääni: »Roma!»

Roma huudahti heikosti ja pudotti revolverin hervottomasta

kädestään.
Paroni sieppasi sen nopeasti. Hän tointui ensin.

»Hiljaa», kuiskasi hän. »Päästä hänet sisään. Minä menen tuohon

huoneeseen. En tahdo tehdä pahaa teille, mutta jos hän seuraa
minua — jos ilmoitat hänelle läsnäoloni — muista, mitä olen sanonut.
Minun rankaisemistapani on oleva nopea ja varma.»

Paroni astui makuuhuoneeseen. Sitten kuului taas tunteellinen

ääni:
»Roma! Roma!»

Roma hoiperteli ovelle ja avasi sen.

VII.

Paetessaan asemalta vaunuissa Via Nazionalea jä Corso Vittorio

Emanuelea pitkin Rossi oli sähkövalossa nähnyt seppeleiden,
kunniaporttien, lippujen, koristusten, kukkasien jäännökset. Kaikki
tuo oli salaman tavoin kulkenut hänen silmiensä ohi ja kumminkin se
oli syventänyt sitä katkeruutta, jota hän tunsi ajatellessaan Romaa,
jonka kasvoihin hän nyt aikoi viskata petoksen syytteen.

Mutta kun hän saapui omaan asuntoonsa ja Roma avasi oven

hänelle ja hän näki vaimonsa niin sairaan ja kalpean näköisenä, nuo
kauniit silmät niin suurina, lempeinä ja kainoina, kasvot sekä ääni
ilmaisten syvää surua, silloin hänen vihansa alkoi lauhtua, ja hänen
teki mieli puristaa Roma syliinsä kaikesta huolimatta.

Roma tiesi avaavansa oven Rossille, olkoonpa syy hänen tänne

tuloonsa mikä tahansa, ja kun hän näki Rossin, huudahti hän
heikosti ja yritti juosta häntä vastaan, mutta seisahtui pelokkaasti.
Hetken ilo ja onni oli heti hävinnyt. Roma näki Rossin kuluneet
kasvot tuskan ja nöyryytyksen vääntäminä, ja silloin hänen
ojentuneet kätensä kohosivat hänen päänsä yli, aivan kuin iskun
estämiseksi. Rossi näki harsonkin alta, mikä pelko oli vallannut
Roman tämän nähdessä hänet, ja siitä hän tiesi, mikä ääretön kuilu
nyt oli heidän välillään. Mutta se vain lisäsi hänen syvää sääliään
Romaa kohtaan. Rossi ei voinut katsoa Romaa tuntematta rakkautta
ja tietämättä, että hän aina tulisi rakastamaan Romaa, tapahtuipa
mitä tahansa.

Kyyneleet nousivat Rossin silmiin. Hän avasi suunsa puhuakseen,

mutta ei saanut sanotuksi sanaakaan. Vihdoin hän pisti kätensä
poveensa, hapuili jotakin rinnaltaan niin että hänen kravattinsa
irtautui solmustaan, ja veti vihdoin esiin sisätaskustaan rypistyneen
paperin.

»Katso», sanoi hän vaivaloisesti.

Roma näki heti, mikä paperi se oli, eikä uskaltanut katsoa siihen
toista kertaa. Se oli vangitsemiskäsky. Hän vaipui tuoliin pää
kumarassa ja nöyrän näköisenä aivan kuin koettaen paeta näkyvistä.

»Sano, ettet tiedä mitään siitä, Roma», sanoi Rossi.

Roma peitti kasvonsa molemmilla käsillään ja oli vaiti.

»Sano, Roma. Älä peitä kasvojasi.»

Roma oli odottanut, että Rossi olisi täynnä raivoa, mutta hänen
äänensä oli murtua. Roma kohotti päätään ja koetti katsoa häneen.
Rossin suuret silmät katsoivat häneen semmoisin ilmein, jommoista
hän ei koskaan ennen ollut nähnyt. Roma yritti puhua, mutta ei
voinut. Hänen huulensa värisivät ja hän peitti uudelleen kasvonsa
voimatta sanoa sanaakaan.

Rossi tiesi, että Roma oli syypää, mutta hän koetti vieläkin
vakuuttaa itselleen, että Roma oli viaton, ja puolustaa häntä jollakin
lailla. Se oli säälittävää, toivotonta taistelua.
 »Sanomalehdet sanovat, että vangitsemiskäsky laadittiin sinun
ilmiantosi nojalla, Roma — että sinä syytit minua. Se ei voi olla totta.
Sano, ettei se ole.»

Roma ei puhunut.

»Katso tuota nimeä — Davido Leone. Tuota nimeä ei ole voitu

kirjoittaa muuta kuin minun verelläni. Jumalan tähden, Roma, sano,
että sinä et ole sitä kirjoittanut.»

Roma ei vastannut vieläkään.

»Minä kerroin sinulle kaiken itsestäni, Roma. Se tapahtui tässä

samassa huoneessa, muistathan, kun ensimmäisen kerran tulit
tänne. Sinä kysyit, enkö pelkää kertoa sitä sinulle, ja minä sanoin,
etten pelkää. Sinä et ole voinut pettää oman isäsi poikaa. Se ei ole
luonnollista. Olenhan oikeassa, Roma, olenhan?»

Roma alkoi itkeä.

»Minä luulin, että maailmassa on vain yksi henkilö, joka tunsi

Davido Leonen. Mutta ehkä täällä on joku toinenkin, Roma? Auta
minua muistamaan.»

Roma tahtoi nostaa katseensa, mutta ei voinut liikutukseltaan.

»Tai ehkä joku kirjeistäni on avattu. Sinua ei voi siitä moittia,

Roma.
Niinkö oli? Sano minulle. Älä pelkää minua, armas.»

Roma ei olisi voinut nyt katsoa Rossia silmiin, vaikka hän olisi
kuollut siihen paikkaan. Huolimatta noista toivehikkaista sanoista
Roma tiesi, että hänen kasvonsa kuvastivat ääretöntä epätoivoa.