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A Convolution Algorithm for Evaluating Supply Chain Delivery Performance

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DOI: 10.1109/HICSS.2007.12 · Source: DBLP

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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007

A Convolution Algorithm for Evaluating Supply Chain Delivery

Performance

Alfred L Guiffrida Robert A. Rzepka Mohamad Y. Jaber

Kent State University Rzepka and Associates Ryerson University
Kent, OH USA Alexandria, VA USA Toronto, Ontario CA

Abstract numerous operations and processes which are

The effective management of a supply chain
requires performance measures that accurately
represent the underlying structure of the supply
chain. Measures such as delivery performance to
the final customer often require summing a set of
random variables that capture the stochastic
nature of activities across the various stages of
the supply chain. The convolution calculus
required to evaluate these measures is complex
and often leads to intractable results. In this
paper we present a discrete convolution
algorithm that simplifies this evaluation. The
algorithm is demonstrated for a delivery
performance measure in a three stage serial
supply chain. Numerical results and a
supporting error analysis are presented for a set
of experiments utilizing reproductive and non-
reproductive probability density functions.
1. Introduction
A review of the literature identifies three major
limitations to current supply chain performance
measures. First, several researchers have
concerns over the lack of cost-based
performance measures [1], [2]. Cost-based
performance measures are attractive since they
are compatible across all stages of a supply chain
and easily integrate into existing cost analyses
that are required for process improvement. An
extensive collection of articles that examine
supply chain management from the cost
management and financial perspectives is found
in [3].
A second concern is that supply chain
performance measures often ignore variability
[4], [5]. A typical supply chain consists of three
fundamental stages, procurement, production and
distribution. Within each of these stages there are
stochastic in nature. An effective performance
measure must incorporate this inherent
uncertainty. The reduction of variability is
recognized as a critical aspect to the
improvement of supply chain performance [6].
Lastly, simplifying assumptions are often used
when modeling stochastic components (e.g.,
supply, demand processing times, etc.) of the
individual stages of the supply chain. Densities
that are reproductive under addition, such as the
normal, Poisson, or exponential, are routinely
used since the additive property vastly simplifies
the mathematical complexity of the modeling
effort [7], [8]. Hence, performance measures that
are used for inventory and process management
may be limited in their general application.
Given the wide array of possible performance
measures and supply chain configurations, no
single modeling effort can capture all aspects of
a supply chain. In this research we concentrate
on one aspect of supply chain performance, the
delivery timeliness to the final customer in a
serial supply chain that is operating under a
centralized management structure. Delivery
performance has been identified as a strategic
level performance metric in supply chain
management [9]. Recent empirical research has
also identified delivery performance as a key
concern among supply chain practitioners [10],
[11]. In a centralized supply chain structure, a
single decision maker attempts to optimize
overall chain performance working in union with
information provided by decision makers at each
stage of the supply chain. This approach to
supply chain management has been addressed in
detail in the literature [12].
The objectives of this paper are as follows: (1)
develop a cost-based performance measure for
analyzing delivery performance within the
supply chain, and (2) develop a framework for
incorporating the variability found in the

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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007
individual components of delivery lead time into
the delivery performance measure.
In satisfying the first research objective, a
cost-based performance metric for evaluating
delivery performance will be developed.
Delivery lead time is defined to be the elapsed
time from the receipt of an order at the first stage
of a supply chain to the receipt of an order by the
final customer in the terminating stage of the
supply chain. Delivery lead time is composed of
a series of internal manufacturing and processing
lead times and external distribution and
transportation lead times found at the various
stages of the supply chain. Delivery to the final
customer is analyzed with regards to the
customer’s specification of delivery timeliness as
defined by an on-time delivery window.
Untimely deliveries, e.g., early and late, are
subject to penalty costs.
In fulfilling the second research objective, a
systems based modeling approach is used to
quantify uncertainty found within the supply
chain. Under the assumption of independence
among stages in a supply chain, we model each
component of delivery lead time as a random
variable with overall delivery lead time defined
as the sum of the internal (manufacturing and
processing) and external (distribution and
transportation) lead times components found
within the various stages of the supply chain.
Unlike previous research, we do not restrict our
model solely to distributions that are
reproductive under addition. A PERL based
discrete convolution algorithm is used to
evaluate the cost-based delivery performance
metric.
This paper is organized as follows. In Section
2, the cost-based delivery performance measure
is developed. The measure is demonstrated for a
supply chain when delivery lead time is defined
by both reproductive and non-reproductive
random variables. In Section 3, a discrete
convolution algorithm is introduced for
approximating the expected cost-based delivery
performance measure. Numerical experiments
are presented in Section 4. Conclusions and
directions for future research are presented in
Section 5.
2. Model Development
Consider an n-stage serial supply chain
structure where an activity at each stage
contributes to the overall delivery time to the
final customer. All members of the supply chain
are assumed to operate on a make-to-order basis.
Clearly other supply chains configurations exist
(e.g., make-to-stock, combination make-to-stock
and make-to-order) however at this stage of the
research we restrict our modeling to a make-to-
stock orientation.
Let the activity duration of stage i, Wi , be
defined by a continuous probability density
function fW w; T with parameter set T .
Delivery time to the final customer is defined
n
by X ¦ Wi . Under the assumption of
i 1
impendence between stages, the form of the
probability density function f X x is defined by
the following convolutions
f
fW1W2 x ³ fW1 x  w2 fW2 w2 dw2
f
f
f W1 W2 W3 x ³ fW1 W2 x  w3 f W3 w3 dw3 (1)
f

f
fW1W2 ˜˜˜Wn x ³ fW1W2 ˜˜˜Wn1 x  wn fWn wn dwn .
f
The mathematics defined in (1) are vastly
simplified when the summand density functions
Wi are reproductive under addition. For the
purposes of conciseness, this paper restricts the
number of stages to three, i.e. n = 3. Our
assumption of independence between stages is
not unreasonable as it has been commonly
adopted in the literature in serial systems [7],
[13].
Delivery to the final customer is analyzed with
regard to the customer’s specification of delivery
timeliness as defined by a delivery window.
Under the concept of a delivery window, the
customer supplies an earliest allowable delivery
date and a latest allowable delivery date. A
delivery window is defined as the difference
between the earliest acceptable delivery date and
the latest acceptable delivery date. Within the
delivery window, a delivery may be classified as
early, on-time, or late (see Figure 1).
Delivery lead time, X, is a random variable
with probability density function f X x . The on-
time portion of the delivery window is defined
by c2  c1 . Ideally, c2  c1 0 . However, the
extent to which c2  c1 ! 0 may be measured in
hours, days, or weeks depending on the
industrial situation. Delivery windows are widely
used in modeling supply chain and time-based
manufacturing systems [14], [15].
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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007
fX x
a c1 c2
Early On-Time
Delivery Scenario
Legend:
a = earliest delivery time
c1 beginning of on time delivery
c2 end of on time delivery
b = latest acceptable delivery time
Figure 1. Normally distributed delivery window.
Consider an n-stage serial supply chain in
operation over a time horizon of length T years,
where a demand requirement of the final
customer for a single product of D units will be
met with a constant delivery lot size Q. The
expected penalty cost per delivery period
for untimely delivery, Y, is
c
1 b
Y QH ³ (c1  x) f X ( x)dx  K ³ x  c2 f X x dx (2)
a c2
where: Q = constant delivery lot size per cycle;
H = inventory holding cost per unit per time; K =
penalty cost per time unit late (levied by the
final customer); a, b, c1 , c2 = parameters defining
the delivery window; W j duration of delivery
lead time component j j 1,2,, n and f X x
fW1 W2 Wn is the density function of delivery time
X. It is a common purchasing agreement practice
to allow the final customer to charge suppliers
for untimely deliveries [16].
A critical computational issue when using (2)
is to determine the analytical form of f X x . For
density functions that are reproductive under
addition (such as the normal or gamma), f X x is
relatively easy to define and the evaluation of (2)
is straightforward. For derivations of (2) when
f X x follows the normal and gamma densities
see [17]. However, when f X x is composed of
the sum non-reproductive densities, the
evaluation of f X x is often intractable and
prevents an exact representation of (2). We
demonstrate the computation aspects of
evaluating f X x in the following subsections.
2.1 Modeling Reproductive Densities
In this section we illustrate modeling of the
expected penalty cost model for an n stage serial
supply chain when the density functions that
define the activity times at each stage are
x reproductive under addition. Let the individual
b
Late
stage activity times follow a normal (Gaussian)
probability density function. The normal
probability density function is defined by the
parameter set T ^P , v` and is reproductive
under addition with respect to both the mean P
and variance v . For fW w; P , v defined as a
normal(N) probability density function, applying
the convolution calculus outlined in (1) yields a
delivery time X with density function
n n
X ~ N §¨ x; P ¦ P i , v ¦ vi ·¸ where P i and vi are
© i 1 i 1 ¹
the delivery mean and variance for stage i, i[1,
n] .
Evaluating (2) for the reproductive normal and
introducing I ˜ and ) ˜ as the standard normal
density and cumulative distribution functions,
respectively, yields the total expected penalty
cost for normally distributed delivery time
ª §c P· § § c1  P · ·º
QH « vI ¨¨ 1 ¸¸  c1  P ¨ )¨ ¸¸
Y ¨ ¨ v ¸ ¸» 
¬« © v ¹ © © ¹ ¹¼»
ª §c P · § § · ·º
K « vI ¨¨ 2 ¸¸  c2  P ¨1  )¨ c2  P ¸ ¸» (3)
¨ ¨ ¸¸
«¬ © v ¹ © © v ¹ ¹»¼
(see [17] for derivation details).
2.2 Modeling Non-Reproductive Densities
When delivery time X is defined as a sum of
non-reproductive independent densities the
convolution mathematics defined by (1) is
complex and the defining form of f X x often
becomes intractable for even small n. We
demonstrate this complexity with two examples.
2.2.1 Example 1
Consider the independent sum of a uniform
random variable, with density function
f1 w1 1 for 0 d w1 d 1 , and an exponential
random variable with density function,
f 2 w2 e  w2 for 0 d w2 d f . Finding the density
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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007

function for the sum X W1  W2 requires the 2.3 Approximation Procedures

inversion of the Laplace transformation
Lr g x Lr f1 w1 Lr f 2 w2 and then the The two examples presented in Section 2.2
demonstrate the complexity introduced in
evaluation of the resulting contour integral
defining f X x for densities that are not
1 c if rw 1  e  r reproductive under addition. In both examples,
fX x ³e dr (4) the mathematical definitions of the summand
2S i c if r r  1
exponential and uniform densities were relatively
simple. Despite these elementary forms, the
for residue, Re r d 0. resultant probability density function for the sum
After considerable mathematical evaluation and of these random variables, f X x , was complex
simplification (see [18] for details), the density to the point that its use would lead to a difficult,
function of the sum is if not intractable, deviation of the expected
penalty cost. Given this complexity, an
­ 1  e x 0 d x d1 alternative approach is to use a methodology for
fX x ®  x 1 x
. (5) approximation the probability density function
¯e e 1d x  f
for f X x .
2.2.2 Example 2 Two approximation techniques have been
proposed in the literature for finding the
convolution of the sum of independent random
Let X W1  W2  W3 represent the sum of the variables (see [20] for a detailed discussion). The
three independent uniform random variables first method involves polynomial approximation
1 while the second method involves discretization.
each defined as follows: f1 w1 for
m Under the polynomial approximation method,
1 the distribution functions of the random variables
0 d w1 d m ; f 2 w2 for 0 d w2 d n ; and of interest are approximated by piece-wise
n
1 polynomial equations that are stated in terms of
f 3 w3 for 0 d w3 d p where m  n  p . the parameters of the associated densities. An
p iterative integration procedure is then used to
After considerable calculus and mathematical evaluate the piece-wise polynomial equations
simplification (see [19]), the density function for over a defined set of intervals to approximate the
X is true convolution. The polynomial approximation
­ x2 method can lead to computational complexity
° 0d xdm
° 2mnp concerns due to the rapid growth in the order of
° the polynomials as a result of the convolution
° k
mdxdn
° 2mnp operations and also due to the number of sub-
° 2 intervals over which the convolution is defined.
° k  xn
° ndxdg Under the discretization procedure, the density
° 2mnp
° k  xn 2  x p 2 gdxdh function of a continuous random variable is
° defined as a discrete density function. Once the
° 2mnp and p d m  n
fX x ® summand densities are represented in discrete
1 gdxdh
° forms, a discrete convolution operation to
° p and p ! mn n
° determine X ¦ Wi can be easily performed (see
2
° 2mn  x  p i 1
° hd x d m p
° 2mnp Section 3 for details of the algorithm) and the
° m  2 n px expected penalty cost model defined by (2) can
° mn d x d n p
° 2np be directed approximated by
° 2
° mn px
° m p d x d mn p m1 m2
2mnp

where:
¯ Y QH ¦
i 1
xi  c1 p X ( xi )  K ¦ c x
i 1
2 i p X xi (6)

2
k x2  x  m ; g min p, m  n ; h max p, m  n . where: m1 the number of early deliveries
x  c1 and m2 the number of late deliveries
x ! c 2 . Note that (6) is no longer dependant on

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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007

obtaining a mathematically defined form

for f X x . 1. Code Library
An approximate form for f X x can be 2. Experiment Design
3. Calculate Discrete Convolutions
determined by evaluating D k ¦X k
PX to 4. Calculate Statistical Measures
2
obtain estimates of the mean P X , variance V , X

coefficient of skewness J 1 , coefficient of

excess kurtosis J 2 for X using the following 3.1 Code Library
formulae [21]
The code library contains code that generates
PX D1 (7) variants, or values, that correspond to a
mathematical function with specific statistical
V X2 D 2  D1
2
(8) characteristics. The probability density
functions in this implementation include the
normal, exponential, gamma, uniform, Weibull
D 3  3D1D 2  2D12 and triangular [23], [24 ].
J1 1 .5
(9)
D 2  D12 The first code library requirement was to create
functions that were portable. The concept is
D 4  4D 1D 3  6D 12D 2  3D 14
code that is independent of operating system or
J2 2
3 . (10) hardware platform, can be ported to other
D 2  D 12 programming languages, and maintains the same
characteristics across all executions [24].
Using the values of (9) and (10), the J 1 , J 2 plane The second requirement is the ability to
illustrated in Figure 2 can be searched to find a initialize a function each time it was executed.
candidate density for approximating f X x . A The seed, or seed state, sets an arbitrary starting
quantitative distance measure for determining the point for the code generating the variants. The
best fit of an empirically estimated J 1 , J 2 pair to seed value should be unique for each execution;
otherwise, the variants from one execution to
the theoretical values of J 1 and J 2 illustrated in another will not be unique [24].
Figure 2 is found in [22]. A third requirement is periodicity. Given a
sufficient number of iterations, a function
executed on a deterministic computer will revisit
a previous value at some point. The goal is that
the underlying algorithm should have a
periodicity long enough that a value is not
repeated too soon.

3.2 Experiment Design

The key goal in this functional area is the

Legend: N = normal, Lo = logistic, La = Laplace
E = exponential
Figure 2. J 1 , J 2 Plane for common densities.
3. Discrete Convolution Algorithm
The main functional areas that this algorithm
needed to address were:
ability to specify probability density functions of
an n-stage model. The analyst will be presented
with a series of options requiring structured
responses. This information forms the basis of
the experimental design that the individual is
attempting to execute.
The primary option would be the choice of the
probability density function at each stage of the
experiment as well as the value of N, or the
number of variates to be generated from each
density function. The structured responses will
specify applicable parameters for each density
function. For example, the normal distribution
requires the specification of a mean and a

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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007
variance, while the triangular distribution
requires a minimum, modal and maximum value.
3.3 Calculate Discrete Convolutions
In mathematical theory, a convolution is a
mathematical operation which takes two
functions and produces a third. While this
definition is conceptually easy, its execution can
be quite daunting.
Computationally, we must iteratively calculate
the sum of two variates and the product of their
probabilities, where the first variate is drawn
from stage n’s density function and the second
variate is drawn from stage n + 1’s density
function. Conceptually, this is not a difficult
until the magnitude of the number of calculations
is understood. The complexity arises from the
fact that the calculations must be executed in a
nested loop structure.
3.4 Calculate Statistical Measures
The final functional area of the algorithm
performed statistical calculations on the delivery
time X and evaluated the expected penalty cost
for untimely delivery. Initially, the first four
central moments for the distribution of X were
determined. Using these values the mean,
variance, and coefficients of skewness and
excess kurtosis were calculated as defined by
equations (7)-(10). Lastly, expected cost for
untimely delivery, Y, as defined by equation (6)
was evaluated.
4. Numerical Experiments
The first set of numerical experiments that
were conducted was designed to evaluate the
error associated with estimating the expected
penalty cost model using the discrete
convolution algorithm. A three stage supply
chain configuration was selected with the
activity times per stage each defined by a normal
distribution. Delivery time to the customer was
defined as X W1  W2  W3 with W1 ~ N 10,2 ,
W2 ~ N 8,1 and W3 ~ N 12,3 . Since the normal
density is reproductive under addition, the
delivery distribution defined by f X x is known
to be normal and (3) can be used to determine an
exact cost. This exact baseline cost was then
compared to the estimated cost resulting from the
discrete convolution algorithm (6) and the
absolute percentage error (APE) was evaluated
using
eq 6  eq 3
APE u 100% . (11)
eq 3
The parameters used were: Q = 500 units; H = $3
per unit per day; K = $1,500 per day late;
a 20 days, b 40 days, c1 29 days and
c2 31 days. The number of samples used at
each stage of the discrete convolution algorithm
was varied for N 200, 300, 400 and 500 and
five sample runs were conducted for each value
of n. Figure 3 illustrates the average APE that
resulted across the five sample runs.
95% Confidence Interval for Absolute Percentage Error.
6
5
Absolute Percentage Error
4
2
1
0
N=200 N=300 N=400 N=500
Figure 3. Error analysis for normal distribution (based
case) experiments.
As expected, the average APE decreased as N
increased, with an APE of less than 1.0%
achieved for N = 500. These test results suggest
that for large N (N = 400 or 500), that the
discrete convolution algorithm provides a
reasonably good approximation (APE no worse
than 2%) to the exact expected delivery cost.
Additional experiments with the same
parameter set and supply chain configuration
were conducted for N 400 with 5 runs per
experiment to estimate the expected delivery cost
and when the activity times at each stage were
defined by independent densities that are not
reproductive under addition (see Table 1).
Given the non-reproductive nature of the
densities defined in Table 1, f X x would have a
highly complex and likely intractable form if
traditional convolution calculus or a polynomial
functional approximation was applied. Results
for the experiments based on the discrete
convolution algorithm are summarized in Table
2. All table entries represent values averaged
over the 5 replications for each experiment.
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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007

a normal due to their common symmetry, but are

Table 1. Experiments for non reproductive densities. not exactly normal due to their leptokurtic
behavior. The density of X for experiment 3 is
Experiment Stage Density(parameters in days) most different from the normal as evident by its
1 1 triangular (4,5,6) lack of symmetry and platykurtic behavior.
2 triangular (11,15,19) Comparing the J 1,J 2 values of each
3 triangular (8,10,12)
2 1 uniform(4,6) experiment to Figure 2, suggests that the
2 triangular(11,15,19) distributions of X may be approximated by
3 normal(10,2) known densities. For experiments 1 and 2 a
3 1 triangular (13,15,17) Weibull density represents a reasonable
2 gamma(4,2) approximation while for experiment 3 the
3 uniform (10, 12) lognormal density appears to be a reasonable fit.

Table 2. Expected cost and parameter values.

5. Summary and Conclusions
Experiment Expected Cost f X x Parameters
Given the inherently uncertain nature of
1 $1,023 PX 29.9 days activities in a supply chain, it is likely that
V X2 3.3 performance measures for the supply chain will
J 1 0. 0 be based on the sum of random variables. Under
the assumption of independence, the defining
J 2 0.3
probability density function for such a
2 $1,471 PX 30.1 performance measure can be evaluated using a
V 2
X 5.1 convolution. However the mathematics
J 1 0. 0 associated with a convolution can become
complex and often intractable even for relatively
J 2 0.2
simple model environments. In this paper we
3 $1,443 PX 29.98 presented a discrete convolution model that
V X2 5.2 eliminates the mathematical complexity
J 1 0. 8 associated with the use of convolution calculus.
The model presented herein was demonstrated
J 2 1. 0
for a cost based delivery performance measure in
a three stage supply chain. In comparison to a
Examining Table 2, we observe that the base case model involving the reproductive
distributions of X in experiments 1 and 2 are normal distribution, the discrete convolution
symmetric J 1 0 , while the distribution in algorithm generated results that had an absolute
experiment 3 is positively skewed J 1 0.8 . This error of less than one percent. The robustness of
result is not surprising since all summand the discrete convolution model for evaluating
densities used experiments 1 and 2 were sums of random variables that are not
symmetric to start with (see Table 1). In reproductive under addition was demonstrated
experiment 3, the stage 2 gamma distribution through a series of numerical experiments.
was positively skewed and hence contributed to Numerical solutions and candidate forms of
the positively skewed result found in experiment known density functions where easily identified
3. for a set of experiments whose mathematical
The coefficient of excess kurtosis J 2 convolution solution would have been extremely
complex and perhaps intractable.
provides a measure of the “peakedness” of a When modeling more complex supply chain
density relative to the normal distribution. As a environments computational aspects of the
base case, the normal is termed mesokurtic model may be a limitation and require attention.
with J 2 0 . Densities with J 2 ! 0 have a sharper The realization is that the time to complete
peak than the normal and are termed leptokurtic; processing will increase greatly as the number of
densities with J 2  0 have a more flattened peak stages increases beyond three and when multiple
than the normal and are termed platykurtic. In performance measures are evaluated
comparison to the normal, the distributions of X simultaneously. One consideration is that this
resulting from experiments 1 and 2 are similar to application may need to be executed as a batch

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 Proceedings of the 40th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2007
or transaction processing type application. This
concept is not uncommon in many supply chain
applications due to the magnitude and/or
complexity of the required calculations.
Further research will focus on relaxing the
assumption of independence among the activities
times comprising the various stages of the supply
chain. A limited set of experiments were
reported in this research. The scope of the
modeling effort can be expanded to support more
numerical experiments. These experiments
would investigate the effect of symmetry and
kurtosis aspects of the summand densities on the
resulting shape characteristics of the density of
the sum. A set of experiments could also be
designed to investigate under what conditions
(e.g., number of stages, symmetry and kurtosis
aspects of the summand densities) a normal
density would accurately represent the sum of a
set of densities that are not reproductive under
addition.
Lastly, the modeling approach developed in
this paper can serve as a test bed for future
research on improving supply chain operations.
For example, the model presented herein
captures variability at each stage of the supply
chain and translates this variability into an
overall variability measure for delivery
timeliness. This structure can be used as a model
to study the bullwhip effect as it relates to
delivery performance. An interesting extension
to the current model would be the incorporation
of an optimization model for allocating resources
to reduce the magnitude and the translation of
variance through the supply chain.
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