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The Social Mediation of Political Rumors.. Examining The Dynamics in Social Media and Belief in Political Rumors
The Social Mediation of Political Rumors.. Examining The Dynamics in Social Media and Belief in Political Rumors
The Social Mediation of Political Rumors.. Examining The Dynamics in Social Media and Belief in Political Rumors
research-article2017
JOU0010.1177/1464884917722657JournalismBae
Article
Journalism
Abstract
Using survey data of social media users in South Korea, this study investigates the
dynamics of political rumors in online social networks. Findings of this study reveal the
significant connection between the users’ reliance on social media as a source for news
and their beliefs in political rumors. Taking a step further, this study underscores the
need to understand how users process misinformation they receive through online social
networks. Drawing attention to the role of network characteristics in the construction
of beliefs around political rumors, this study provides a more nuanced understanding
of the conditions under which rumors and misinformation can be regarded as more
believable.
Keywords
Information flow, network homogeneity, political rumors, quantitative, social media
Introduction
Fake news and unverified rumors are proliferating in online social networks. While the
circulation of gossip and rumor is not new, the recent explosion of online platforms that
facilitate social networking is considered to have opened up the pathway for rumors to
spread through these networks at an unprecedented speed. For instance, in April 2013,
the US stock market experienced an abrupt sell-off that caused the S&P500 to decline by
0.9%, which wiped out US$130 billion in stock value in a matter of seconds (Matthews,
Corresponding author:
Soo Young Bae, Department of Communication, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Integrative Learning
Center N366, 650 N. Pleasant St. Amherst, MA 01003, USA.
Email: sooyoungbae@umass.edu
Bae 1523
2013). This incident was caused by a false tweet from the Associated Press’s Twitter
account, which told its millions of followers that President Obama had been injured in an
explosion at the White House (Bradshaw et al., 2013). While the Associated Press
quickly addressed the situation by informing its readers that the Twitter account had been
hacked and that the information was false, the single tweet was enough to send a shock
wave through the stock market (Matthews, 2013). It was during the same month that
social networking sites played host to a series of rumors and speculations about the sus-
pects of the Boston marathon bombing (Bradshaw et al., 2013). The difference in the two
incidents is that the Associated Press case involved misuse of the ‘verified’ source that is
otherwise widely accepted as reporting confirmed facts, while the search for the bomb-
ing suspects involved the online crowd to take part in the ongoing speculations. Both
cases, however, clearly illustrate the risk and real-world consequences associated with
the dissemination of inaccurate information through social media.
While social media have grown as one of the most popular platforms where users can
freely interact with their friends connected through networks, the spread of falsehoods
and misinformation have also raised serious concerns. In an environment where the flow
of information is increasingly embedded in social relationships, it remains unclear how
individuals evaluate which piece of information is trustworthy or believable. Given this
context, this study focuses on the relationship between social media use and political
rumors, with the fundamental interest in clarifying the process through which informa-
tion circulated in online social networks is received and evaluated by individuals. Moving
this discussion forward, this study examines the conditions under which rumors can be
perceived as more believable, by taking into account the characteristics of the individu-
als’ online social networks.
Literature review
Media use and political rumors
Before we proceed with exploring the relationship between media use and political
rumors, it is useful to review the meaning of political rumors. Political rumors generally
refer to ‘unverified information – information that lacks a secure standard of evidence –
that spreads among a group of people because it promises to resolve uncertainty or pro-
vide new insight into important social or political phenomena’ (Garrett, 2011: 256).
While the study of rumors dates back to several decades, scholars agree that the field
needs more theorizing on political rumors (DiFonzo and Bordia, 2007; Donovan, 2007).
Given that a healthy participatory democracy depends on the active engagement of an
informed citizenry, the role of the media in providing accurate information becomes
particularly relevant. Research has shown that individuals’ use of different media outlets
can significantly impact their knowledge of public affairs (Moy et al., 2005), as well as
their perceptions around an issue (Pierce et al., 1990). With the rise of the new commu-
nication technologies, particularly the Internet, scholars have raised questions about their
potential impact on the dissemination of falsehoods and political rumors, drawing atten-
tion to the different mediation process that information undergoes prior to reaching an
audience.
1524 Journalism 21(10)
That is, while information in traditional mass media is selected, edited, and dissemi-
nated by professional gatekeepers and is identified with authoritative sources, such edi-
torial policies in many online information platforms are often nonexistent, unknown, or
ambiguous on various websites on the Internet (Flanagin and Metzger, 2000). The new
media environment has transformed the expressive potential of the average citizen, and
individuals are now in a position to post messages and images that can be viewed
instantly by global audiences at minimal costs (Lupia and Sin, 2003). The Internet offers
a variety of ways to disseminate news and information, and the process prior to publica-
tion differs significantly from that of the traditional media.
Such characteristics of the online environment led researchers to predict that the
Internet would serve not only as an information highway but also as a path for political
rumoring (Ayres, 1999). In a study of ‘legitimate media’ (daily newspapers and network
TV news) and ‘less legitimate media’ (blogs and grocery store tabloids), Stempel et al.
(2007) found that reading daily newspapers and their website versions were negatively
associated with beliefs about the conspiracies regarding the US government’s involve-
ment in the 9/11 attacks. In contrast, frequently consuming news from online blogs and
reading tabloids were positively associated with beliefs in the conspiracy, controlling for
uses of other media (Stempel et al., 2007). Moreover, investigations of federal officials
report that numerous websites and online newsgroups contain questionable information
about major medical conditions, and the Securities and Exchange Commission report
filing charges against stock promoters who created and circulated false rumors about
their own company’s stock prices on the Internet (Knight Foundation, 2001). These find-
ings suggest that while the Internet has certainly enhanced the ability of its users to
quickly access and disseminate information, it remains questionable whether it also
opened the door to misinformation and circulation of rumors (Garrett, 2011). The spread
and belief in unverified information in the online media landscape becomes particularly
more compounding as a growing number of Internet users embrace social media as alter-
native tools for acquiring news and information.
Oliveira, 2012), the same network structure can also be leveraged to disseminate incor-
rect information or unverified rumors (Qazvinia et al., 2011). Even at the early develop-
ment stages of computer-mediated social networks, some researchers expressed fear that
these social networks would accelerate the flow of misinformation, including rumors,
complaints, jokes, and subversive communications (Finholt and Sproull, 1990). Despite
these general concerns about the potential outcomes of social media use, there is a need
for establishing a theoretical understanding about the relationship between online politi-
cal rumoring and social media platforms. In what follows, I will present a theoretical
framework that explains the process of information transmission and reception in online
social networks, and its implications on rumors and misinformation.
The creation and proliferation of social media represent a transformation of the online
information ecology, where information is increasingly merged with sociality. Since the
flow of information is engrained in existing social relations, the outcomes of information
exposure can vary depending on the social relationships between users in online net-
works. For instance, information can seem more credible when it comes from a trusted
source or an opinion-leader in the social network. This information can be perceived to
be even more credible when it resonates within the users’ network, as shown through
various indicators of endorsement. This prediction seems intuitive, as previous research
findings have established the effectiveness of source information and heuristic cues
(Chaiken, 1980; Kahneman and Tversky, 1979; Petty and Cacioppo, 1986).
Nevertheless, this mechanism provides an interesting theoretical framework to
explore the process through which misinformation and unverified rumors are propagated
in online social networks. While data scientists are detecting the presence of political
rumors and misinformation in networks through the use of machine learning, the field
lacks an understanding of the underlying mechanism that makes false information more
believable. Critics have raised caution that extant research has focused more on how
heuristic cues serve as rational strategies for effective decision making, overlooking the
potential problems associated with their inappropriate use (Kuklinski et al., 2000). The
enhanced visibility of social cues can lead individuals to automatically rely on others’
endorsement in their social networks, without worrying about the accuracy of informa-
tion, perhaps in the absence of any contextual knowledge.
Moreover, rumors do occur not in a vacuum but proliferate in the context of social
networks (DiFonzo and Bordia, 2007). Word-of-mouth referrals have been empirically
demonstrated to be extremely effective mechanisms of persuasion (Brown and Reingen,
1987), and the role of intermediary opinion leaders in shaping people’s understanding
of public affairs has been illustrated in previous studies (Lazarsfeld et al., 1944). In a
study of political rumors on the Internet, Garrett (2011) found that using emails with
friends and family members as a source for political information significantly increased
the likelihood of both exposure to and belief in political rumors. This finding was con-
trasted against the impact of using mainstream news media, which in fact increased
exposure to rumor rebuttal and showed no significant relationship with belief in rumors
(Garrett, 2011).
In light of these findings, this study predicts that users who rely more heavily on
social media as a source for news will experience political rumors differently from those
who also consume traditional news media. Although traditional media are faced with
1526 Journalism 21(10)
similar challenges of the changing news environment, the information published through
these outlets undergo a gatekeeping process, which differentiates it from the information
that is floating freely in online social networks. More specifically, this study predicts that
using social media as a news source will be positively associated with the users’ belief in
political rumors. When users who rely on social media for news also consume traditional
news media, it is expected to reduce the likelihood of believing in political rumors, and
weaken the relationship between social media use and rumor beliefs.
Hypothesis 1 (H1): Using social media as a news source more frequently will be
associated with belief in political rumors.
Hypothesis 2 (H2): The use of traditional news media will negatively moderate the
relationship between social media use as a news source and belief in political
rumors.
higher levels of homogeneity in online social networks will lead to a greater likelihood
of resonance of a particular rumor in the social network. More specifically, the present
study predicts that perceptions of political similarity of users’ online social networks will
strengthen the association between using social media as a news source and belief in
political rumors.
Hypothesis 3 (H3): Political similarity in online social networks will strengthen the
link between using social media as a news source and belief in political rumors.
Method
Data
To evaluate the predictions about the dynamics of political rumors in the online informa-
tion environment, this study examined data collected through an online survey in South
Korea in March 2013. Participants were recruited through an international online survey
firm with a prerecruited national panel of approximately 960,000 members that mirror
the demographic characteristics of the 20- to 59-year-old population in South Korea.
From the panel, 4,203 respondents were randomly chosen and email solicitations were
sent out to participate in the survey. The sample (n = 205) was drawn via a quota sam-
pling method. Previous research has shown that older adults tend to be dramatically
1528 Journalism 21(10)
Measures
Belief in political rumors. The survey asked respondents about their belief in two different
political rumors that were circulated online. First a screening question was asked to
ensure that only participants familiar with the rumor proceeded to the next question, and
then they were asked whether they believe the rumor to be true. If the participants were
not familiar with the rumor, they were not further asked to indicate their belief. Each
rumor contained controversies that were officially refuted by the involved stakeholders
(Rumor 1: the South Korean government, Rumor 2: the attacked candidate and the
Supreme Court) as blatant falsehoods. While the two rumors included in this study are
not representative of all unverified political information, the high-profile nature of these
political rumors circulated on the web allow for an initial exploration of their relation-
ship with media use. Respondents were asked to indicate their belief in each political
rumor on a 3-point scale, ranging from 1 (not true) to 3 (true; see Appendix 1 for ques-
tion wording and background descriptions).
Traditional news media use. Studies report that traditional news sources and their online
counterparts are subject to professional and social standards and constraints (Johnson
and Kaye, 1998). Thus, respondents were asked to report their weekly exposure to news
from three traditional news media outlets: watch national TV news (M = 3.77, SD =
1.35), read daily major newspapers in print (M = 2.19, SD = 1.40), and read the daily
major newspapers online (M = 2.08, SD = 1.15). Responses were coded on a 5-point
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scale, ranging from 1 (never) to 5 (everyday). A composite index was created by adding
up the responses (Cronbach α = .50).
Social media use for news. The use of social networking sites was measured with three
items asking respondents about their use of social media, such as Facebook, Twitter,
Cyworld, and others, as a source for news. Two items tapped into their motivation of
social media use on a 5-point scale: ‘I use social media to learn about politics and current
affairs issues’ (M = 3.47; SD = 0.88), and ‘I use social media to receive news from my
friends’ (M = 3.31; SD = 0.86). An additional item measured the frequency of getting
their news from online social networking sites. The same 5-point scale was used for a
weekly basis, ranging from 1 (never) to 5 (everyday; M = 2.90; SD = 1.41). A composite
index was created by adding up the responses to the three items (Cronbach α = .75).
Control variables. A set of demographic variables served as controls in the analysis: gen-
der (49.3% males), age (mean = 40, SD = 10.97), education (median = college degree),
and household income (median = KRW4,000,000–KRW5,000,000). In addition, this
study controlled for the respondents’ political predisposition with two items: interest in
politics and political ideology and support for candidate in the 2012 South Korean presi-
dential election. Respondents were asked to indicate their level of political interest on an
8-point scale, ranging from 1 (definitely not interested) to 8 (definitely interested; M =
5.0, SD = 1.47).
Given the nature of political rumors, it is likely that the respondents’ belief in them
might be significantly influenced by their political leanings. To focus on the variance in
rumor belief that relate to news media use and social networking, the respondents’ politi-
cal ideology and their support for the presidential candidate in the 2012 election were
controlled in the analyses. This sample was composed of liberals (24.9%), moderates
(45.4%), and conservatives (29.8%), and 36.6% of respondents reported having voted
for Park (conservative), 38.5% for Moon (liberal), and 17.1% for Ahn (withdrawn).
Analytic procedure
To examine the hypothesized relationships between the use of traditional news media
and social media as news sources and the users’ perceptions around political rumors,
multivariate regression analyses were run with belief in each political rumor as the
1530 Journalism 21(10)
outcome variable. The survey did not explicitly ask respondents to indicate whether each
news source directly contributed to rumor exposure or belief, as this level of detail would
be difficult for respondents to self-report with accuracy (Garrett, 2011; Schwarz, 1999).
Instead, the influence of news media use on rumors was analyzed by accounting for the
variance explained by control variables and testing the statistical significance of each
relationship. In addition to testing the direct relationship between social media use and
rumor beliefs, this study also explored how the similarity of users’ online social networks
moderates the relationship. To carry out this analysis, interaction terms were created
between social media use for news and perceived political similarity. In order to avoid
potential multicollinearity problems between the interaction term and its components, all
of the component variables were standardized prior to the formation of the interaction
terms (Cronbach, 1987).
Results
The central motivation for this study was to explore how individuals, situated in an envi-
ronment where information reaches them increasingly through online social networks,
understand and process political rumors. Toward this end, this study began by examining
the direct relationships between citizens’ use of social media as a source for news and
their belief in political rumors (H1). Findings reported in Table 1 show the relationship
between the block of control variables, media use, and the users’ beliefs in the two politi-
cal rumors, respectively. Notably, the significant result of presidential candidate support
(Rumor 1: β = .31, p < .01; Rumor 2: β = .25, p < .01) for both rumors demonstrates that
individuals’ belief in political rumors are most significantly shaped by their preexisting
political leanings. Yet even after controlling for the respondents’ political predisposition
as well as a set of demographic variables, findings highlight that relying on social media
use as a news source is a positive predictor of rumor beliefs (Rumor 1: β = .14, p < .05;
Rumor 2: β = .17, p < .01). Given that this positive relationship was significant after
accounting for the variance explained by the respondents’ presidential candidate support,
it can be inferred that their news media consumption pattern is related to their under-
standing of political rumors.
The next hypothesis predicted that using traditional news media would negatively
moderate the relationship between social media use as a source for news and belief in
political rumors (H2). Table 2 shows findings related to H2, and illustrates the significant
interaction between the two variables in predicting beliefs in political rumors (Rumor 1:
β = –.12, p < .05; Rumor 2: β = –.11, p < .10). This finding suggests that when individuals
who use social media as a source for news also frequently consume traditional news
media, the relationship between social media use and rumor beliefs was significantly
weaker.
Finally, interested in the conditions under which rumors mediated through social net-
works can be regarded as more believable, the next analysis focused on the role of homo-
geneity in online social networks (H3). As shown in Table 3, a positive interaction term
was found between perceived political similarity in online social networks and using
social media for news to predict belief in political rumors (Rumor 1: β = .11, p < .10;
Rumor 2: β = .13, p < .05). This result indicates that the positive relationship between
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Table 1. Predictors of belief in online rumors – Traditional news media versus social media
use for news.
β t value β t value
Age .09 1.2 –.05 –0.67
Gender (high: female) .02 0.34 .16** 2.34
Education .47 0.47 .07 1.07
Household income –.06 –0.91 .08 1.14
Political interest .07 0.96 .02 0.32
Political ideology .02 0.21 .08 1.12
Presidential candidate support .31** 3.9 .25** 3.21
R2 (%) 10.4% 15.2%
News source
Traditional news media –.02 –0.28 –.12 –1.58
Social media .14* 1.99 .17** 2.43
Total R2 (%) 12.4% 18.2%
Table 2. Two-way interaction – Social media use for news × Traditional news media use.
β t value β t value
Prior blocks (R2, %) 12.4% 18.2%
Traditional news media use × –.12* 1.73 –.11# 1.64
Social media Use
Inc. R2 (%) 1.3%* 1.1%#
Total R2 (%) 13.7% 19.3%
Prior blocks include age, gender, education, household income, political interest, political ideology, presiden-
tial candidate support, social media use for news, and traditional news media use. Entries are standardized
regression coefficients after controlling for the prior blocks.
#p < .10; *p < .05; **p < .01.
using social media as a news source and believing in the two political rumors becomes
stronger for those who find themselves to be in a politically homogeneous social network
that aligns with their own viewpoints. For a better illustration of the interactive relation-
ship, the predicted values for Rumor 2 are plotted in Figure 1. The two different slopes
for high and low levels of social network similarity demonstrate that the association
between social media use for news and belief in political rumors is stronger when users
feel that their friends hold similar political views as themselves. In fact, the slope for
those with low levels of social network similarity is almost flat, suggesting that the posi-
tive relationship between social media for news and rumor beliefs may be of greater
1532 Journalism 21(10)
Table 3. Two-way interaction – Social media use for news × Perceived political similarity.
β t value β t value
Prior blocks (R2,
%) 12.4% 18.2%
Perceived political similarity .14* 2.00 .16* 2.28
Inc. R2 (%) 2.5% 3.4%
Social media use for news × .11# 1.65 .13* 1.9
Perceived political similarity
Inc. R2 (%) 1.2%# 1.5%*
Total R2 (%) 16.1% 23.1%
Prior blocks include age, gender, education, household income, political interest, political ideology, presi-
dential candidate support, social media use for news, traditional news media use. Entries are standardized
regression coefficients after controlling for the prior blocks.
#p < .10. *p < .05. **p < .01.
Figure 1. Predictors of political rumor beliefs – Social media use for news × Perceived political
similarity (Rumor 2).
Discussion
The exponential growth of social networking sites in recent years has brought them to the
center of scholarly research, as illustrated in the sharp increase in the number of
Bae 1533
published journal articles. This study focuses on the changes brought to the information
environment by social media and draws attention to the importance of understanding the
process through which users receive and evaluate information in online social networks.
Although scholars have begun to investigate the diffusion of information online, how
social media use relates to the individuals’ perceptions and beliefs around unverified
information and rumors remains largely unexplained. This study adds valuable insight
about the conditions under which political rumors can be regarded as more believable, by
drawing attention to the users’ news media consumption habits as well as the political
homogeneity of their online social networks.
As one might expect, individuals’ belief in political rumors tend to be closely aligned
with their political ideology. The data of this study confirm that the respondents’ political
ideology was a strong determinant of their belief in the two political rumors. Yet the
significant positive relationship between using social media as a source for news and
beliefs in political rumors even after accounting for the variance explained by as political
ideology, suggests the centrality of individuals’ information environment.
One possible explanation is that the social mediation of information through collabo-
rative filtering can provide a less accurate picture about politics and current affairs, com-
pared with the traditional news media. Studies of the blogosphere and citizen journalism
have shown that many who participate lack the basic traits associated with journalists,
such as reporting with objectivity and double-checking information (Gil de Zúñiga et al.,
2011; Tremayne, 2007). Instead, they have been known to take on different roles as
observers, analyzers, and commentators who provide an interpretation of current affairs
events (Andrews, 2003). The news frames constructed by citizens contributing to the
newsfeed in online social network networks may thus reflect enduring ideologies of
individuals or particular social groups. As a result, news can become part of a storytelling
process in social media (Papacharissi and De Fatima Oliveira, 2012), which could con-
sequently serve to perpetuate existing stereotypes and biases embedded in political
rumors. Any intermediary in social media can blend emotions with opinions, drama with
fact, and reflect deeply subjective values and interpretations.
Recently, some online media and social networking sites have begun to realize their
responsibility in combating the spread of rumors, in the face of increasing criticism for
circulating falsehoods and misinformation. For instance, Facebook announced that it
would introduce new policies to enhance the fact-checking process in its networks, by
partnering with third-party fact-checkers, as well as increasing human resources in
checking the information (Issac, 2016; Pierson and Etehad, 2016). Despite these efforts,
the filtering and detecting mechanism is still largely dependent on human capacity,
which is proportionately much smaller than the vast amount of information that is shared
per minute in any given social media platform. Combating fake news in social media will
become the biggest challenge that service providers must confront, as their repercussions
have been shown to be detrimental to our democracy as evidenced by the most recent
2016 US presidential election.
The fundamental motivation of this research is to understand the way misinformation
and rumors transmitted through online social networks are received by the users, and
evaluated as believable. Previous research on audience reception studies informs us that
the reactions of information consumers is necessarily subjective (Graber, 1988), and that
1534 Journalism 21(10)
What can start out as a mistake or a prank can be compounded within the network and
overshadow the truth of the information. Considering that the long-term viability of par-
ticipatory democracy depends on an informed citizenry with accurate information (Delli
Carpini and Keeter, 1996), future research examining the growing complexities of shar-
ing, commenting, and linking news and information in social platforms will contribute to
further clarifying their role as disseminators of news.
Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this
article.
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Author biography
Soo Young Bae is an assistant professor of Communication at the University of Massachusetts,
Amherst. She is interested in the social and political impact of new communication technologies,
with a particular focus on the dynamics of user interaction and information flow in social media
platforms.
1538 Journalism 21(10)
Appendix 1
Rumor question wording
Please tell us about your judgment on the truths about the following statements.
1. North Korea is not responsible for the sinking of the South Korean Navy ship
Cheonan.
*Author’s Note: The South Korean navy ship carrying 104 personnel, Cheonan, sank on
the country’s west coast on 26 March 2010, killing 46 sailors. South Korea’s military
intelligence gathered with the United States, Britain, Australia, and Sweden revealed that
a torpedo fired from a North Korean submarine sank this navy ship. This attack was one
of the deadliest military provocations since the Korean War, which ended in a truce in
1953. North Korean officials responded denying responsibility. Rumors emerged in
South Korea that evidence was manipulated to attribute the cause of the sinking to North
Korea. Various rumors about the cause of the ship’s sinking appeared. Among others, a
theory developed that Cheonan crashed into an American warship, despite clear evi-
dence that the damage done to the ship would have been considerably different. South
Korean officials took steps to crack down the rumors that were proliferating on the web,
and accused an Internet political magazine for spreading inaccurate information about
the sinking and arousing public mistrust in the investigation. The South Korean Defense
Minister officially debunked these rumors as being unfounded and confirmed that the
traces of torpedo suggest that the attack was clearly carried out by North Korea.