NVDA TO THE MOON

May 9-10th: Market Decline

Due to ARM's unfavorable guidance, NVIDIA and the rest of the semiconductor
sector are expected to experience a downturn tomorrow, unless there is a
significant rise in jobless claims. An increase in jobless claims would indicate a
struggling economy, which might prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates,
a scenario that Wall Street typically favors.
The cause of this expected decline is the dissemination of misleading articles like
this one, which incorrectly attribute ARM's price increase to the AI boom (which is
unrelated):
TSMC: Morgan Stanley Hikes PT on ARM AI CPU Boost
The general public tends to believe these misleading narratives, and if the SPY
(S&P 500) doesn't peak in the morning, we are likely to see a decrease or a flat
market at best, continuing into Friday.
Additionally, the call/put skew indicates that traders are consolidating around
$900 as we approach the pre-earnings period.

The gist of this is that if we have really good news, NVDA could hit $920 but with
poor market news could hit a bottom of $875 by this Friday.
With VIX (a measure of market volatility, which measures fear) being below 16 and
hovering around 13, Market Makers are likely to feed into trends and buy dips so
this is bullish in the market overall.

NVDA TO THE MOON 1

 May 13-17th: Slight Recovery Followed by Deep Decline
Heading into next week, we are likely to see a brief recovery in prices following
this week's dip, followed by a decline leading up to the earnings reports the
following week. The reason for this pattern is hedging. Both Wall Street and some
retail investors are aware that previous guidance was issued under entirely
different macroeconomic expectations.
Initially, the market anticipated three rate cuts; now, only one rate cut is expected,
if any. This shift is likely to result in a price drop similar to the previous earnings
cycle but potentially more severe, given the poor earnings reported by other
semiconductor manufacturers.
During the previous earnings cycle, despite positive results across the board, we
still observed a decline in prices.

NVDA TO THE MOON 2

 Last week, there was roughly a $75 decline in share price leading up to earnings,
even amid positive market news. If historical patterns hold, we might see the price
drop below $800 if there's a mass sell-off this week. The impact of the Consumer
Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and Jobless Claims on Thursday could moderate
this decline, but the expected price range is $845-$895 based on past volatility
around earnings.

May 20-22nd: Earnings Endgame

NVDA TO THE MOON 3

 Nvidia is likely to continue its decline from the previous week, but this isn't a
concern. Why? Because Nvidia is a standout in the industry, akin to the leap from
a flimsy flip phone to an iPhone in 2008. Nvidia's platform is the go-to for AI
training due to its superior optimization, making it the industry standard.

Regardless of the performance of AMD, Intel, and Super Micro Computer, Nvidia is
expected to excel in earnings per share (EPS), revenue, and guidance. They are
the backbone of all AI training models, and no other company is close to matching
their capabilities. Therefore, Nvidia is poised to exceed Wall Street expectations
and reach new highs, barring significant geopolitical events or regulatory
intervention.

For more information, see this article on Nvidia's impact on the AI industry.

NVDA TO THE MOON 4