China, under President Xi Jinping, strategically
aligns with Russia, intensifies ties with the Global
The outcome of U.S. policies plays a crucial role in
shaping global dynamics, with scenarios ranging
from reduced aid to Ukraine under a divided
American society to a potential resurgence of U.S.
involvement under a tamed isolationist temptation,
impacting China's role as a mediator between Russia
and the West.
The future of the China-Russia alignment and
global dynamics may be shaped by China's economic
needs, potential U.S. political shifts, and geopolitical
factors such as Ukraine's struggle against Russian
aggression and tensions over Taiwan.
China's foreign policy exhibits a pattern of sudden
policy shifts in response to domestic and
international pressures, as seen in its reversal from
a stance of limited involvement in Ukrainian peace
talks to dispatching a special envoy for shuttle
diplomacy, indicating a pragmatic approach to
crisis management. 1
1. Despite hopes from Ukraine and Europe,
China is unlikely to actively mediate between Russia
and Ukraine or participate in a Swiss-sponsored
peace conference, as President Xi Jinping is
unwilling to risk upsetting Russia or return to a
stance of feigned neutrality.
2. Beijing expects a quid pro quo from the West
for any assistance in Ukraine, such as access to the
EU market for Chinese products, but it’s improbable
that Western powers would sacrifice their economic
and security interests in exchange for China’s
limited involvement.
Introduction South, and adopts an anti-Western stance while
maintaining relations to access Western resources
and undermine the international order.
1. Chinese foreign policy, under President Xi Jinping,
prioritizes alignment with Russia, evident in official
statements and high-level interactions, emphasizing
Less likely: Gradual improvement strategic coordination and opposition to external
interference.
2. The pro-Russian faction within China's ruling
Strategic coordination
elite, strengthened by Xi's political choices,
flourishes in diplomatic and military spheres,
exemplified by promotions like Dong Jun's
appointment as defense minister, indicating a
significant shift towards closer cooperation
Beijing as a peace broker, part 2 between China and Russia.
1. Initially, President Xi Jinping tightened
diplomatic ties with Russia, even before the Ukraine
invasion, but China’s stance shifted as Russia’s
campaign stalled, prompting concerns about over-
The burgeoning dependence on Russia and prompting a “smart
Scenarios diplomacy” offensive to mend relations with the
China-Russia West, especially Europe.
Xi Jinping’s U-turn
2. However, President Putin’s alarm over
axis President Xi’s mediation efforts in Ukraine led to
internal strife within China’s foreign ministry,
resulting in the removal of Foreign Minister Qin
Gang and subsequent purges. Despite attempts at
neutrality rhetoric, China’s actions suggest a
significant upgrade in relations with Russia.
1. Despite increasing trade between China and
Persisting Western illusions Russia, China's trade with the U.S. and Europe has
decreased, leading to a rise in trade with Global
South countries and significant contributions to
Russia's war effort through shipments of dual-use
equipment and industrial products.
2. Military cooperation between China and Russia
has intensified, evident in joint naval exercises and
patrols, reflecting a tightening alignment between
Flourishing Sino-Russian relations
the two countries and potential implications for
Taiwan's future.
3. While China's pro-Russia stance under President
Xi Jinping has led to strained relations with the
West, particularly the U.S. and Europe, Beijing still
maintains limits on fully aligning with Russia, as
seen in its cautious approach to Western financial
sanctions and concerns among Chinese banks about
doing business with sanctioned Russian companies.
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