Solution 1:

Introduction:

The Bayes theorem is a statistical theory that permits us to simply adjust our pre-existing
convictions in light of fresh facts. It's a handy resource used often in many fields, such as
academia, healthcare, engineering, and the financial sector. An issue with periodontal disease
and temperament is discussed, and the Bayes theorem may be used to it.

According to the problem statement, poor oral hygiene has been linked to feelings of sadness.
Eighty-five percent of those who reported experiencing depression also had periodontal
disease, which leads to irritated gums. To put it another way, 29% of healthy people have this
issue. How likely is it that someone suffering from periodontal disease will also be
depressed? Only 10% of the time will you be really miserable in your current situation.

Concept & Application

The following problem will be tackled using the Bayes theorem: It may be shown that P(A|B)
= P(B|A)*P(A)/P(B).

Where P (A|B) is the probability that event A occurs, given that B is true. It is posterior
probability of A given B.

P(B|A) represents the probability that event B occurs, given that A is true. It is posterior
probability of B given A.

P(A) is the expected prior probability of happening for event A.

P(B) is the expected prior probability of happening for event B.

Here, we want to determine how likely it is that depressive symptoms would emerge given
the presence of periodontal disease. For clarification, please refer to the note below:

P(sour breath and a negative outlook).

We are aware that there is a ten percent probability that we have lost our temper in the past.
According to the problem statement, the chances of developing periodontal disease are 0.29%
in the event of a good mood and 0.85% in the event of a negative mood. A tree diagram
depicting this data is shown below.

Bad mood No bad mood

0.1 0.9
/ \ / \
Periodontal No periodontal Periodontal No periodontal
0.85 0.15 0.29 0.71

The first branch of the decision tree depicts the possibility of being in a bad mood. There's a
10% chance that you won't be satisfied here. Thus, the chances of being in a negative mood
are 0.1 and the chances of being in a happy mood are 0.9.

The second step of the tree diagram illustrates the possibility of developing periodontal
disease in the presence of a negative or unpleasant attitude. The result suggests that someone
with a short fuse has a 0.85% chance of developing periodontal disease. Without depression,
your chances of developing periodontal disease are just 0.29 times higher. Therefore, as
compared to when one is cheerful, the chance of preventing periodontal disease drops from
0.15 to 0.71.

Outcome 1, shown by the tree diagram, describes the possibility of suffering from both
periodontal disease and a low mood. The probability of outcome 1 is shown in the tree
diagram to be:

P (terrible temper and periodontal disease) = P (bad mood) * P(Periodontal disease | bad
mood)
= 0.1 * 0.85
= 0.0.5

We also understand that there is a chance of developing periodontal disease.:

P (Periodontal sickness) = P (Periodontal disease | bad mood) * P (bad mood) + P
(Periodontal disease | No bad temper) * P(No bad temper)
= 0.85 * 0.1 + 0.29 * 0.9
= 0.346

Now we can use Bayes' theorem to calculate the opportunity of getting a bad mood given
periodontal disease:
P (bad mood | Periodontal disorder) = P(Periodontal disease | bad mood) * P(bad mood) /
P(Periodontal disease)
= 0.85 * 0.1 / 0.346
= 0.2457

That's why there's a 24.57% chance (or 0.2457 percent) that someone with periodontal
disease may get angry.

Conclusion:

Using a tree diagram and the Bayes theorem, we determined that someone with periodontal
disease had around a 24.57% chance of being irritable. This research reveals a robust link
between periodontal disease and depressed symptoms, with patients experiencing depression
reporting a much greater prevalence of periodontal disease than those experiencing
depression. The study's results emphasize the value of good dental hygiene and periodontal
disease treatment on one's oral, systemic, and mental health.

Solution 2:

Introduction

Before we can create a regression model, the data must be input into Microsoft Excel. Here,
we have access to both the overall number of Instagram users and the average number of
posts each day. Independent variable will be number of followers, while dependent variable
will be range of daily postings.

The following are the measures to take while developing a regression model in Excel:

The number of posts each day is the independent variable, while the number of followers
represents the dependent variable, and should be listed in the first column.

To go to Step 2, click the Data Analysis icon under the Statistics menu.

After picking "Regression" from the available analytic methods, go to Step 3.

4th Step: Input the range of cells that include data for the dependent variable and the range of
cells that contain data for the independent variable into the respective input and output range
boxes in the Regression dialogue box.

Step 5 involves settling on a set of variables to utilize in the regression. For simplicity, we
will refer to our input and output variables as "Labels" and the disparities between the
anticipated and actual values as "Residuals" in this example.

Sixth, click the button to start the regression analysis.

When the regression analysis is complete, Excel will open a new tab and display the findings
there. The standard error, the coefficient of determination (R squared), the t-values, and the p-
values for the coefficients are all included in the findings.

Concept & Application

We have the new sheet, as given below.

The results of a basic linear regression analysis were tabulated and may be seen below. The
regression coefficients, the statistical significance of the version, and the generalizability of
the model are all presented in the table. In this research, the number of daily posts (y) is the
unbiased variable, while the total number of followers (d) is the dependent variable.
Indicators of Regression:

Differential R

There is a weak positive association between the number of daily postings and the number of
followers, as shown by the correlation coefficient. A correlation coefficient of 0.0466
indicates a weak association between the variables. The R-squared plot

According to the range of daily posts, this version may best account for 0.2% of the
followers. Given this discouraging result, it might be wise to collect further data for the
model.

Alterations to an R-shaped box

The R-squared price is adjusted such that it takes into account all of the model's variables.
Since the distances in this case are negative, the model cannot provide a satisfactory
explanation.

Normal slip-up

The standard deviation of the predicted residuals is shown below. It's shorthand for the mean
of the gaps between observed and predicted data.

ANOVA:

The significance of the regression version is shown in the ANOVA table. The size of the
regression model is shown by the F-statistic. Here, a low F-statistic would suggest that the
variant is not very important.

Coefficients:

The regression coefficients are separated out in the coefficient table. When the independent
variable is set to 0, the dependent variable's cost as the intercept is $377.21. With the daily
post count coefficient of 1.74, we can determine that, on average, you will get 1.74 new
followers for every extra post you make. Although the p-value for this coefficient is very
small, it does not significantly vary from zero.

Specifically, we get y = 377.21 + 1.74x from our linear regression model.

Conclusion:

The results of the regression analysis suggest that the variety of posts made throughout the
day is a more accurate predictor of the diversity of Instagram followers. When the R-squared,
R-rectangular, or F-statistic is low, it suggests that the model does not represent the data
faithfully.

This might be due to the time of day or the most successful posts, both of which need to be
taken into account by the model. More study and consideration of additional parameters are
recommended for development of a more robust and accurate model.

Solution 3(a)

Introduction:

The scenario asks us to calculate the frequency with which a brand-new factory's 1,000 light
bulbs would need replacement. Furthermore, we are informed that we cannot let more than
10% of the bulbs to become ineffective before changing them, despite the fact that the
average lifetime of the bulbs is 120 days and the usual deviation is 20 days.

Concept & Application

If X indicates the number of days a light bulb would last, then a normal distribution would
reveal that X has a mean of 120 days and a standard deviation of 20 days.

The value of x that will allow us to determine that P (X = x) = 0.10 will be.

A calculator or a normal distribution table could help us figure this out.

First, we use the equation to normalize X.
Z = (X -a ) / Z.

where the standard deviation is and the mean is.

Z = (x - 120) / 20

The z-score for P (Z = z) = 0.10, according to the common regular distribution table, is -1.28.

This value's substitution into the formula results in -1.28 = (x - 120) / 20.

We arrive at x = -1.28 * 20 + 120 = 94.4 after solving for x.

Therefore, 94.4 days or less should elapse between replacements to prevent a failure rate of
more than 10%.

Every 94.4 days, you should swap out your light bulbs to ensure that you never have to
replace more than 10% of them due to obsolescence. Because broken light bulbs may
decrease production and put workers in danger, this critical operation is essential for the
factory to run properly.
The ordinary distribution is a vital tool in statistical analysis and is widely utilized in the
field. It's has symmetry, a tight concept, and some kind of divergence from the norm. These
features make it useful for interpreting a wide variety of statistical data, including both
empirical and financial information.

The normal distribution is a continuous chance distribution that is often employed in

statistical analysis due to its many desirable properties. Important characteristics of the
typical distribution include a bell-shaped curve with equal heights at the apex and the mean
and standard deviation.

There is just one mode and the values fluctuate around the mean in unimodal distributions.
Area under the curve is controlled entirely by the mean and standard deviation of a normal
distribution, and stays the same by a factor of at least one. Because of these characteristics, it
is a great instrument for modelling and data analysis.

Conclusion

We found that if we want to ensure that no more than 10% of 1000 light bulbs fail before
replacement, the interval between replacements must be 94.4 days or less, given a mean
lifetime of 120 days and a desirable variance of 20 days. This calculation made use of two
basic instruments of statistical analysis: the average and the standard regular distribution
table.

Solution 3b:

Introduction

To get the median age of males and females among migrants, we divide the total number of
migrants in each age group by the total number of migrants in that category.

Concept & Application

Using the median of each age group multiplied by the number of migrants in that age range,
we get a total of 4,613,678,689 persons. The male migrant population is 1,455,99803 strong.
The following formula may be used to estimate the typical age of male migrants.
For male migrants, (Sum of f*x) / (Total number of migrants) = 4,613,678,689 / 1,455, 99803
= 31.687.

Thus, the average age of male migrants is around 31.69 years old.

There are 30 859 1233 total female migrants and 11,316,123,244 f*x. The following
technique may be used to determine the typical age of female migrants as a result:

(Sum of f*x) / (Total Immigrant Number) = 11,316,123,244 / 30, 859, 1233 = 36.670 is the
average female immigrant's age.

Therefore, emigrating women have a median age of 36.67.

Interpretation:

The average age of male migrants is estimated to be between 31.687 and 36.670, while the
average age of female migrants is also estimated to be between 31.687 and 36.670. Therefore,
the age distribution of female migrants is rather older than that of male migrants. There might
be a number of causes for the disparity in median age.

In contrast to men, who often move for professional reasons, women frequently migrate for
family reunions or to enroll their husbands. Another argument in support of lowering the
minimum age of female migrants is that women tend to outlive men.

Policymakers need information on the median age of migrants by gender so they can craft
policies that meet the needs of all age groups. For example, if the minimum age for female
migrants were to be increased, policymakers would want to prioritize the development of
healthcare facilities, social safety programs, and age-friendly housing communities. Keep in
mind that male migrants are often younger than their female counterparts. Those in
administrative roles might advocate for the promotion of youth-friendly employment options
including internships, training programs, and apprenticeships.

Conclusion

The average age of male migrants is 31.69, while female migrants are 36.67. This disparity in
ages has numerous root reasons, including migration and the unequal length of life
expectancy between men and women. Knowing the median age of migrants by gender may
help with efforts to help them integrate into the host community and boost their general well-
being. The availability of such data is crucial for the development of policies and programs
that address the specific needs of various age groups, such as the provision of healthcare
services to older female migrants and economic possibilities to younger male migrants.