Valuation Report

Machai Hydropower Project

Location RD 68+218, Alo, District Mardan

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Requested by Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization,

Peshawar

Prepared by Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd, Pakistan

Report ref 999_50200888D_71180502
Date 17 January 2024

Khalid Anwar
Director Northern Operations Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd

Eng Dr Ahmed Hayat

Engineering Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd

Yusuf Dossa
Engineering Valuation Risk Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd
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Valuation Report
[Issued Without Prejudice]

Insured ▪ Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization [PEDO]

Plot# 38, Sect B-2, Phase-5, Hayatabad, Peshawar, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
 Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
Pakistan

Machai Hydropower Project [MHP]

▪ Dargai, Malakand Agency, KP, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Operational locations MHP plant

▪ Machai Canal, Alo, Tehsil Katlang, District Mardan, Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Instructions from Pakhtunkhwa Energy Development Organization [PEDO]

Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

Survey dates 21-Oct-2023

0100 Preamble
0101 The Machai Hydropower Plant [MHP] is a ‘diversion’ or ‘run-of-the-river’ type hydropower plant of 7.88m
net head, providing 2.60MW & 40cumec capacity, with an annual mean yield of 15.78GWh.
0102 MHP was originally proposed in Aug-2005, designed to realize, with relatively modest outlay, the
development potential of the existing infrastructure of the Upper Swat Canal System, the 81.00MW
Malakand-III hydropower project, & their off-take from the Amandara headworks across the Swat River
at Akbarabad.
0103 The project covers a section of the Machai Canal from RD 68+450 near village Alo, till RD 70+830,
covering three falls. Construction began in in 2012 &, after delays caused by ROW issues that led to
minor modifications to the diversion canal, the project was commissioned for commercial operations on
01-Nov-2016. Total cost at the commissioning stage was reported to have been PKR 1.50billion].

0200 Scope of Assignment

0201 Valuation of the plant, machinery & ancillary equipment, infrastructure, buildings & structures of the MHP
complex, in order to determine the New Replacement Value [NRV] for insurance purposes, as well as the
Present Market Value [PMV], of the above-mentioned assets as listed, as of 04-Jan-2024.
0202 The assessments will be based upon several valuation methodologies for the installed plant / machinery,
ancillary equipment, buildings & structures, as listed below:
0202.1 Cost-approach-1: Assessment & derivation of the New Replacement Value [NRVi] for
insurance purposes, as of 04-Jan-2024.
0202.2 Cost-approach-2: Assessment of the Present Market Value [PMV], from the derived NRV,
including work-back / work-forward recasting using the computed NRV / PMV figures for the
said project, as well as historical costs as the bases of valuation.
0202.3 Comparative-plant / market-approach: Assessment of NRV & PMV using external, market-
sourced data, values & specifications for other existing plants & facilities of similar
configuration, as well as figures from the extensive databases compiled by JL & our

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international partners during other valuations, risk & sums-insured assessments, as well as
claims & loss adjusting assignments in Pakistan, & internationally.
0203 The survey report is to be accompanied by a Photo file of the subject assets.
0204 The report is not intended to have comprehensive self-contained descriptives of subject assets, but short
asset captions using existing nomenclature received from MHP / PEDO who already have access to and
are familiar with the detailed technical specifications of the subject assets.
0205 No material testing is to be performed to assess value &/or condition of the assets inspected. Assessment
is to be based on physical inspection, measurements &/or data provided by MHP / PEDO, in addition to
market inquiries & the combined proprietary worldwide database resources of Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd &
our international partners.

0300 Definitions
0301 New Replacement Value [NRV1] is the estimated cost of replacing the existing subject asset with an
unused substitute of identical or equivalent asset of like kind, quality, equal utility &
output/capacity/specifications, having zero wear-&-tear, using current standards of materials & design,
and with no deduction for depreciation.
0302 Present Market Value [PMV] also termed as Fair Market Value is the estimated value of a tangible asset,
in its current state, as-is-where-is, in an unrestricted market, founded on market information, extrapolation
&/or precedent, based on what an informed, willing, & unpressured buyer without any obligation would
likely arrive at and agree with a similarly knowledgeable, willing, unpressured & unobligated seller in the
market, with neither party under any compulsion to buy or sell. The assessed PMV apply to a degree &
form of deployment related to identical utilization &/or project requirement. Any deviations with respect to
differing utility will entail adjustments or an entirely revised appraisal.
0303 Operational / Useful Life is the estimated life during which an asset is projected to generate revenue or
provide other valuable or quantifiable service. Equivalent to the period over which an asset can be
depreciated, useful life refers to the duration for which the item will be useful to the entity, not how long
the asset will or could actually last before being reduced to scrap at the end of its useful life. Many factors
affect a property's useful life including the frequency of use, the age or running hours already incurred at
the time of acquisition as well as the repair policy & the prevailing environmental conditions during
operation or storage of the asset. Useful life of identical type of assets will differ from user to user
depending on the above factors as well as additional factors as foreseeable technological improvements,
economic changes & changes in laws.
0304 End-Life Residual Value / Scrap Value [ERV] is the estimated value of a physical asset &/or its
component/s after completion of its economic operational life and is deemed no longer usable in original
form. The individual components may at times be put to other use in original form or more often be
processed before reuse. Scrap value is also dependent on the supply & demand for the component
materials of the scrapped asset.

0400 Valuation | Methodologies, Parameters, Metrics

0401 The subject survey was carried out with the consent, logistical support & cooperation of MHP, PEDO &
NICL.
0402 A listing of the assets including plant components, buildings, structures & vehicles was provided by MHP.
Prevailing & historical market values for these listed assets of identical or similar specifications & age.
0403 Principal persons liaised with at PEDO & MHP were: [a] Mr Muhammad Samiullah (MS): Assistant
Director, PEDO-MHP plant; [b] Mr Muhammad Masood (MM): Director Engineering, PEDO-Peshawar; [c]
Mr Qamar Orakzai (QO): Director, PEDO-Peshawar; [d] Mr Zahid Akhtar (ZA): Director, PEDO-Peshawar;
[e] Mr Afzaal Shah (AS): AM Reinsurance, NICL-Islamabad; [f] Mr Khurram Irshad (KI): Chief Manager
Underwriting, NICL-Islamabad; besides several other engineers, technicians & support staff.
◼ Plant / Machinery: Cost & Market Comparative Approaches
0404 The JL asset-groups & listing orders the earlier risk, valuation & Probable Maximum Loss / Maximum
Foreseeable Loss assessments have been followed as the primary reference, & main sub-heads.
0405 The PC1 document, equipment lists, as well as data with respect to buildings & civil structures was shared.
0406 A listing of the assets including plant components, buildings, structures & vehicles was provided by MHP.
Prevailing & historical market values for these listed assets of identical or similar specifications & age

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were researched & used for: [a] Market-based cost-approach derivation of PMV1: NRV1-PMV1 [where
new, unused replacement assets are available] with work-forward for PMV1; [b] Comparative-plant-based
cost-approach derivation of PMV2-NRV2-PMV1 [for independently commissioned &/or custom-designed
assets, &/or assets no available in their original specifications] with work-back / work-forward inter- &
extrapolations for PMV1; & [c] Historical-cost-based OAV-PMV3 extrapolated work-forward derivations,
followed by work-back / work-forward for using the FAR & historical data provided by MHP.
0407 The assessment incorporates a multiple approach to achieve the most broad-based derivation. The
methodologies employed include stand-alone itemized NRV derivations based on worldwide procurement
of materials & services, coupled with a parallel NRV derivation using the JL’s in-house databases,
statistical & trend-derived project costs for comprehensive & comparative appraisal.
0408 The project valuation & itemized costs from comparable projects were referred from the Cunningham
Lindsey Project Control Partnership, UK & Joseph Lobo Ltd, Pakistan worldwide databases.
0409 The heads & format used was compiled from the subject project PC1 document in order to facilitate direct
comparison.
0410 Level-1 / Class-5 & Level-2 / Class-4 computational financial models for small- & medium-sized
hydropower unit capital cost estimations were made in conjunction with inputs from JL-modified capital
cost derivations from IDAM, EWOA & Flow-3D software.
0411 The critical metrics used were:
0411.1 Pakistan PPI escalation 1st-order derivatives for: in-land transport [northern Pakistan],
cement, concrete infrastructure, pavement & building construction, steel fabrication,
engineering services, hvac, selected transformers & electrical distribution cabinets.
0411.2 China PPI escalation 1st-order derivatives for: engineering services, specialized transformers,
MV / HV electrical switchyard hardware, breakers & upstream switchgear, hydroelectric turbine
units, valves, gensets, solenoids, steel sub-assemblies, main control room panels, cranes &
hoists, hydraulic actuation & control systems, electric drives & telecommunication equipment.
0411.3 Discounting factors were used where direct USA / EUR comparatives were used to obtain the
China-origin equivalent.
0411.4 The NRV-for-insurance Sum-Insured [SI] includes the additional costs for Increased Cost-of-
Working [ICW] covering additional surveys, 3rd-party rehabilitation consultancy fees,
allowances for peripheral collateral damage [civil works as well as plant / machinery],
dismantling, disengagement, replacement / rehabilitation / reinstatement, testing & misc costs
till trial production, as well as debris removal & an additional contingency component.
0411.5 Prevailing & historical market values of assets of identical or similar specifications & age were
researched & used for NRV-PMV, PMV1-PMV2, OAV-PMV derivations which were then used
as a comparative basis, with work-back / work-forward using the following factors for assets of
older or later YoM (year-of-manufacture) &/or of an independently commissioned design
nature:
0411.6 Scaling & equivalence factors were applied to normalize production / output capacities,
dimensions, dry weight for asset values of slightly differing specs & enable proper comparative
analyses.
0411.7 Assets were re-grouped in accordance with specific machinery classes to enable more
accurate itemized NRV-PMV / PMV-NRV derivations.
0411.8 Straight-line depreciation was applied on an asset class basis adjusted & categorized to reflect
residual value, operational life, Mean-Time-Between-Failure (MTBF) trends, & cyclical utility
patterns [where applicable].
0411.9 1st order derivatives for the host-country &/or supplier-country Producer Price Index (PPI)
were applied on an asset-class sector-wise basis as applicable.
0411.10 Lapsed-period exchange-differential impact was applied for non-offshore items & other host-
country expenses. USD was used as the primary denominations wherever possible. Exchange
rates on the basis of the annual mean were utilized for each year till 2023. The rate on 04-Jan-
2024 [281.884782] was applied for the year 2024.
0411.11 The relevant obsolescence factors were applied selectively to equipment, components,
electro-mechanical machinery & ancillaries where the base technology &/or instrumentation
has undergone significant change in core &/or display technology, & including assets where
primary functions are dependent on installed microprocessors, IC-modules & logic controllers.
0411.12 Initial import, logistical & installation costs were factored into the values.
0411.13 Capitalized modifications, standard overhaul &/or major refit expenditures were excluded but
their impact on the operational life of the target assets were applied & adjustments made

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accordingly, as a matter of course.

0412 Market-derived NRV & PMV data were compared with our proprietary databases compiled from decades
of experience in plant valuation, machinery insurance claim adjustments, as well as plant & PML / MFL
derivations for project risk assessments.
0413 Market-sourced import, landed cost & installed NRVs as well as direct locally fabricated cost-based NRVs
were obtained &/or computed for identical &/or similar & the relevant factors from above-mentioned basis
applied.
0414 Market-derived individual itemized PMV & NRV data were used as far as possible, under the said
circumstances.
0415 The Modal Mean of the results from the various methodologies was used to derive the final definitive NRV
/ PMV for plant.
◼ Building: Cost Approach
0416 Physical inspection, examination & measurements of buildings & structures to identify the construction
types, standards & levels of finish.
0417 Physical surveys on the ground were followed up by satellite photogrammetry & referenced information
from MHP & our own type & rate databases in order to establish the bases for computing the dimensions,
construction types & rates for derivation of the NRV.
0418 Physical surveys & measurements were conducted independently wherever physical or remote access
was possible & integrity of the superstructure permitted, for the buildings & structures in order to identify
the construction types, dimensions, standards & levels of finish & current condition.
0419 Condition assessment was made on the basis of physical inspection from the ground as well as our own
extensive experience in a wide range of civil engineering projects for ERV, Balance-Operational-Life
[BOL], RCA, post-fire evaluations & other condition / loss-damage assessment assignments.
0420 Structure Mean Operational Life [MOL] & End-Life Residual Values [ERV] was determined by the type of
building construction & building materials.
0421 The covered area was coupled with the applicable construction rates & NRV computed for the entire
developed, built-up & constructed area.
0422 The derived value was then depreciated using declining balance basis [computed on mean life & End-
Life Residual Values [ERV]] work-back computation & our proprietary financial models for buildings & civil
structures.
0423 Details for the individual rates & computed values are listed in the attached Annexures.
0424 The cost-approach derived values were then depreciated using our proprietary financial models using
declining balance basis [computed on mean operational life & end-life residual values] work-back
computation from the Year-of-Completion.

0500 Location
0501 MHP is located at 34.420153 / 72.045434, at 418m ASL, & covers a section of the Machai Canal from
RD 68+450 near village Alo, till RD 70+830.
0502 The MHP main project components in order of sequence are:
0501.1 Origin at the Amandara Headworks, branching off into the Upper Swat River Canal, running
past the NW outskirts of Akbarabad.
0501.2 The MHP receives its feed from 3x canal courses:
[a] The Musamima-Mulashara-Dargai component of the Upper Swat River Canal running SW-
NE;
[b] The Jabban-Dargai component canal, running NNE-SSE;
[c] A convoluted 3rd-route, also running NNE-SSE, but via through several channels & tunnels,
exiting through the Malakand-III tailrace into the now substantially larger Upper Swat Canal
component. This canal then makes a NW-SE traverse, meandering past & around the Irfan
Kot - Naik Muhammad Khan Kalay - Madad Khan Banda townships, into the MHP.
[d] The MHP tailrace empties into the same canal lower downstream, before sweeping past
the neighboring Alo - Charchur - townships, & heading towards the Likpani - Chanoona culvert
& tunnel.
0501.3 The headwater is channeled through the Stage-1 trash racks, dumping the suspended silt into
the sand fill void below, passes through the single-leaf inlet wicket gates, into a flow-stabilizing
chamber. From here the stream enters the vertical-axis Kaplan turbine, & exits the tapered
draft tube, past the main tailrace gate valve, & empties into the tailrace channel.

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▲ MHP | Alt 6,390m | position wrt major townships

▲ MHP | Alt 19,680m | feeder routes

0600 Building & Structures / Production-Related Civil Work /

0601 The main plant components, are housed in dedicated, fully-enclosed buildings of various types including:
0601.1 RCC column-&-beam framework, with load-bearing as well as non-load-bearing block-
masonry walls & pre-cast RCC Double-T slab roofing.
0601.2 Main administrative buildings of are.
0601.3 Secondary, support & residential buildings of are a mix of conventional RCC walls & roof, as
well as non- loadbearing walls & pre-cast slab &/or shallow-pitched GRP- & steel- corrugated
roofing. Depending on the end-use, these are fully enclosed with walls on 4-sides & roof
[occasionally with 1-2x levels of basements, service pits, etc, as required], 2-, 3- & 4-sides
open.
0602 Covered area summaries are as under:

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Name Covered
Area m2
0602.1 Powerhouse | 4x levels [basement-1 + basement-2 + ground-floor + 1st-floor] 449
0602.2 Other-1 / misc 29
0602.3 Residential-1 | Type-1 342
0602.4 Residential-2 | Type-2 203

▲ MHP | Alt 1,060m | powerhouse, office & residential colony

▲ MHP | Alt 518m | fore-bay, diversion canal, stepped spillway, main powerhouse, tailrace

0602.5 Residential-3 | Type-2 203

0602.6 Residential-4 | Type-2 203
0602.7 Residential-5 | Type-2 203
0602.8 Residential-6 | Type-2 203
0602.9 Residential-7 | Type-2 203
0602.10 Residential-8 | Type-2 203

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0602.11 Residential-9 | Type-2 203

0602.12 Residential-10 | Type-2 203
0602.13 Other / misc 29
0602.14 Office / administration block 566
0602.15 Workshop & store premises 91

0602.16 Total covered area / m2 4,835

0603 A 720m boundary wall encloses the office / administration & residential area.
0604 A 375m wall separates the plant powerhouse building & operational areas from the private property to
the west.

0700 Configuration | Plant, Machinery & Equipment

0701 The finalized project configuration is a run-of-the-river, tunnel-diversion type hydel plant.
0702 The main components, plant / machinery & ancillary equipment & their locations are listed as under:
Name Details | Remarks

0702.1 Diversion canal ▪ PCC liner open canal.

▪ Length 361m.
▪ Bed level ∆ 5.2m.

0702.2 Embankment with ▪ Fall structures 2.5m.

pilings & dressing

0702.3 Intake fore bay ▪ RD68+150.

▪ Ungated intake weir.
▪ Single leaf wicket gates.
▪ Upstream inlet opening HW 2,980 x 4,100mm.

0702.4 Stepped spillway ▪ RD69+200.

0702.5 Powerhouse ▪ RD68+565.

▪ Basement-1 + basement-2 + ground-floor + 1st-floor.
▪ Turbine hall / basement-1.
▪ Impeller pit / basement-2.

0702.6 Outlet aft bay ▪ RD69+200.

▪ Downstream outlet opening HW 3,510 x 3,010mm.

0702.7 Dewatering system ▪ 20x deep wells with submersible pumps.

▪ Width 4m.
▪ Length 1,390m.

0702.8 Turbine ▪ 1x Kaplan type | vertical axis.

▪ Electronic governor.
▪

0702.9 Generator ▪ 1x 3,250kVA | SF2600-36 | 6,300V / 297A @ 166rpm | Zhejiang-

Jinlun, China.
▪ Full set of instrumentation, protection relays.

0702.10 Standby generator ▪ Diesel | GF-250 | Yanghou-Juwei, China

▪ 250kW [prime rating].

0702.11 Transformer ▪ 4,000kVA.

▪ ONAN type.
▪ Output step-up 6,300V - 11,550V.

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0702.12 Industrial metering ▪ 11kV | Siddiqsons Engineering, Pakistan.

panel

0800 Valuation Summary

◼ Plant + Buildings / Cost Approach / NRV for insurance purposes:
Asset Group New Replacement Value
PKR [rounded up 10,000]

0801.1 Civil works 1,236,950,000

0801.2 Hydro-mechanical equipment & associated ancillaries-1 552,780,000

0801.3 Electro-mechanical equipment & associated ancillaries-2 442,770,000

0801.4 Electrical equipment / powerhouse & associated ancillaries-3 960,040,000

0801.5 Control equipment & associated ancillaries-4 17,600,000

0801.6 Misc, balance-of-plant, workshop, vehicles, project infra-structure, 148,860,000

spares, etc

0801.7 Total NRVi = PKR 3,341,000,000

◼ Plant + Buildings / Cost Approach / PMV for accounting / finance purposes:

Asset Group Present Market Value
PKR [rounded up 10,000]

0801.8 Civil works 776,040,000

0801.9 Hydro-mechanical equipment & associated ancillaries-1 295,230,000

0801.10 Electro-mechanical equipment & associated ancillaries-2 226,860,000

0801.11 Electrical equipment / powerhouse & associated ancillaries-3 512,730,000

0801.12 Control equipment & associated ancillaries-4 9,400,000

0801.13 Misc, balance-of-plant, workshop, vehicles, project infra-structure, 79,510,000

spares, etc

0801.14 Total PMV = PKR 1,899,770,000

0810 The estimated sum-insured is derived taking into account freight, import levies, engineering / supervision
expenses for installation / commissioning, start-up, trials & commissioning costs.
0811 The figures do not include costs for design, early-stage project consultancies & start-up costs, physical
contingencies, administration / management, forex losses, contractor’s claims, performance guarantees,
price adjustments, furniture, fixtures, interest, feasibility studies, project planning &/or financial charges.
0812 It must be understood & appreciated that contrary to an entire project being implemented & commissioned
as a single work-order & undertaking, the subject comparative plant basis estimation for each main individual
module of the project has been made treating construction / erection / installation / commissioning for the
various components of the project being treated as single, independent jobs, to be implemented, progressed,
& concluded as complete, stand-alone contracts, as would be the base scenario for probable losses &
insurance claims [PML level & below] in real terms, where only a few individual sections, modules &/or

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components of the entire project are affected at any given time, & not the entire project. These insurance-
focused costs will always be substantially higher than the scales-of-economy achievable for a one-time
implementation of an identical project, & several factors greater than the original project costs.

0900 Annexures
0901 Annexure-01 Plant, building details.
0902 Annexure-02 Satellite views.
0903 Annexure-03 Photo file.

1000 General Disclaimer

1001 General Note: This assessment & analysis summarizing our findings & professional opinion is limited to
the extent, nature & quality of data shared by the client.
1002 At no time shall Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd &/or its employees be responsible for any inferences, action,
assumptions, conclusions or implications drawn from the draft &/or final report &/or any annexures
provided.
1003 In no event, regardless of whether consent has been provided, shall Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd &/or its
employees assume any responsibility to any other third party to which the report & annexures, in part
or in toto, is disclosed or otherwise made available.
1004 Neither do we, Joseph Lobo Pvt Ltd, ISO 9001: 2015 certified & holding SECP licenses 01-S-Mach-F,
03-S-F-F, 03-S-M-F & 03-S-Motor-F, nor any of our directors, employees, associated persons,
consultants or other related party, have an interest directly or indirectly by way of insurance, ownership,
agency commission, repair, salvage disposal, or in any other way in the property or interest that
constitute the subject matter of this communication, other than as Valuation Surveyors & Loss Adjusters.
1005 The above assessment was carried out diligently, to the best of our ability, & our responsibility is limited
to the exercise of reasonable diligence & care.
1006 This report represents our findings on the date & at the place stated & is issued without prejudice to the
rights of whomsoever concerned. It does not intend to relieve any party from its legal &/or contractual
obligations.
1007 The lists of assets including stocks were provided by the client &/or their representatives.
1008 We have relied on the information supplied to us in good faith, & accept no responsibility if this should
prove erroneous at a later date.
1009 It is our understanding that we are not required to give testimony or attend in court or government
agency unless prior assignment terms are agreed in advance.
1010 All related documents provided to us will be preserved for 03 years from this day.

The above inspection was carefully carried out to the best of our ability & our responsibility is limited to an exercise of reasonable care. This report represents our findings on the date & at the place stated
& is issued without prejudice to the rights of whomsoever concerned. It does not intend to relieve any party from its legal &/or contractual obligations. All relating documents that were provided to us will
be preserved for 03 years from this day. Neither the whole nor any part of the report nor any reference thereto may be included in any published document or statement nor published in any way without
our written approval of the form & context in which it will appear.

Khalid Anwar Eng BakhatAli Naper Yusuf Dossa

Dir, Northern Operations Engineering Engineering Valuation Risk

Joseph Lobo are a professional firm of licensed Surveyors & Valuers, enlisted by
the Pakistan Banks Association as class-A Valuers with no limit on the Asset value

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