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200888B Malakand3 HP - 999 - 50 N - S 240117 - FjSr1
200888B Malakand3 HP - 999 - 50 N - S 240117 - FjSr1
Khalid Anwar
Director Northern Operations Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd
Yusuf Dossa
Engineering Valuation Risk Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd
Ref 886.01200888B.71180502 | 17 January 2024 | Pg/ 1 of 14.
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Valuation Report
[Issued Without Prejudice]
Operational locations M3H plant: Dargai, Malakand Agency, KP, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
Pakistan.
0100 Preamble
0101 The Malakand-IIl Hydropower Plant [M3H] is a ‘run-of-the-river’ type hydropower complex of 181m net
head, providing 81.1MW & 51cumec capacity, designed in 2002 to realize the development potential of
the existing infrastructure including the Benton tunnel & Amandara headworks across the Swat River at
Akbarabad, already in place for the earlier 22MW/ Jabban [Malakand-| / M1H / commissioned 1938] &
20MW Dargai [Malakand-Il / M2H / commissioned 1952] neighboring hydropower plant projects.
0102 Construction began in Jun-2005 & the plant was commissioned for commercial operations on 01-Nov-
2008. Total cost at the commissioning stage was reported to have been USD 106.15million [PKR
6.38billion]. The mean annual energy output is 549GWh.
0103 In addition to supplementing the power output of the Jabban & Dargai plants, an intermediate wasteway
from the Sediment Excluder-2 also provides the water for the direct gravity-fed Baizai irrigation scheme
for more than 25,000acres [10,117ha].
0104 M3H was the first hydropower plant in Pakistan to incorporate Supervisory Control & Data Acquisition
[SCADA] as the main control system.
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0202.3 Comparative-plant / market-approach: Assessment of NRV & PMV using external, market-
sourced data, values & specifications for other existing plants & facilities of similar
configuration, as well as figures from the extensive databases compiled by JL & our
international partners during other valuations, risk & sums-insured assessments, as well as
claims & loss adjusting assignments in Pakistan, & internationally.
0203 The survey report is to be accompanied by a Photo file of the subject assets.
0204 The report is not intended to have comprehensive self-contained descriptives of subject assets, but short
asset captions using existing nomenclature received from M3H / PEDO who already have access to and
are familiar with the detailed technical specifications of the subject assets.
0205 No material testing is to be performed to assess value &/or condition of the assets inspected. Assessment
is to be based on physical inspection, measurements &/or data provided by M3H / PEDO, in addition to
market inquiries & the combined proprietary worldwide database resources of Joseph Lobo (Pvt) Ltd &
our international partners.
0300 Definitions
0301 New Replacement Value [NRV1] is the estimated cost of replacing the existing subject asset with an
unused substitute of identical or equivalent asset of like kind, quality, equal utility &
output/capacity/specifications, having zero wear-&-tear, using current standards of materials & design,
and with no deduction for depreciation.
0302 Present Market Value [PMV] also termed as Fair Market Value is the estimated value of a tangible asset,
in its current state, as-is-where-is, in an unrestricted market, founded on market information, extrapolation
&/or precedent, based on what an informed, willing, & unpressured buyer without any obligation would
likely arrive at and agree with a similarly knowledgeable, willing, unpressured & unobligated seller in the
market, with neither party under any compulsion to buy or sell. The assessed PMV apply to a degree &
form of deployment related to identical utilization &/or project requirement. Any deviations with respect to
differing utility will entail adjustments or an entirely revised appraisal.
0303 Operational / Useful Life is the estimated life during which an asset is projected to generate revenue or
provide other valuable or quantifiable service. Equivalent to the period over which an asset can be
depreciated, useful life refers to the duration for which the item will be useful to the entity, not how long
the asset will or could actually last before being reduced to scrap at the end of its useful life. Many factors
affect a property's useful life including the frequency of use, the age or running hours already incurred at
the time of acquisition as well as the repair policy & the prevailing environmental conditions during
operation or storage of the asset. Useful life of identical type of assets will differ from user to user
depending on the above factors as well as additional factors as foreseeable technological improvements,
economic changes & changes in laws.
0304 End-Life Residual Value / Scrap Value [ERV] is the estimated value of a physical asset &/or its
component/s after completion of its economic operational life and is deemed no longer usable in original
form. The individual components may at times be put to other use in original form or more often be
processed before reuse. Scrap value is also dependent on the supply & demand for the component
materials of the scrapped asset.
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0405 The PC1 document, equipment lists, as well as data with respect to buildings & civil structures was shared.
0406 A listing of the assets including plant components, buildings, structures & vehicles was provided by M3H.
Prevailing & historical market values for these listed assets of identical or similar specifications & age
were researched & used for: [a] Market-based cost-approach derivation of PMV1: NRV1-PMV1 [where
new, unused replacement assets are available] with work-forward for PMV1; [b] Comparative-plant-based
cost-approach derivation of PMV2-NRV2-PMV1 [for independently commissioned &/or custom-designed
assets, &/or assets no available in their original specifications] with work-back / work-forward inter- &
extrapolations for PMV1; & [c] Historical-cost-based OAV-PMV3 extrapolated work-forward derivations,
followed by work-back / work-forward for using the FAR & historical data provided by M3H.
0407 The assessment incorporates a multiple approach to achieve the most broad-based derivation. The
methodologies employed include stand-alone itemized NRV derivations based on worldwide procurement
of materials & services, coupled with a parallel NRV derivation using the JL’s in-house databases,
statistical & trend-derived project costs for comprehensive & comparative appraisal.
0408 The project valuation & itemized costs from comparable projects were referred from the Cunningham
Lindsey Project Control Partnership, UK & Joseph Lobo Ltd, Pakistan worldwide databases.
0409 The heads & format used was compiled from the subject project PC1 document in order to facilitate direct
comparison.
0410 Level-1 / Class-5 & Level-2 / Class-4 computational financial models for small- & medium-sized
hydropower unit capital cost estimations were made in conjunction with inputs from JL-modified capital
cost derivations from IDAM, EWOA & Flow-3D software.
0411 The critical metrics used were:
0411.1 Pakistan PPI escalation 1st-order derivatives for: in-land transport [northern Pakistan],
cement, concrete infrastructure, pavement & building construction, steel fabrication,
engineering services, hvac, selected transformers & electrical distribution cabinets.
0411.2 China PPI escalation 1st-order derivatives for: engineering services, specialized transformers,
MV / HV electrical switchyard hardware, breakers & upstream switchgear, hydroelectric turbine
units, valves, gensets, solenoids, steel sub-assemblies, main control room panels, cranes &
hoists, hydraulic actuation & control systems, electric drives & telecommunication equipment.
0411.3 Discounting factors were used where direct USA / EUR comparatives were used to obtain the
China-origin equivalent.
0411.4 The NRV-for-insurance Sum-Insured [SI] includes the additional costs for Increased Cost-of-
Working [ICW] covering additional surveys, 3rd-party rehabilitation consultancy fees,
allowances for peripheral collateral damage [civil works as well as plant / machinery],
dismantling, disengagement, replacement / rehabilitation / reinstatement, testing & misc costs
till trial production, as well as debris removal & an additional contingency component.
0411.5 Prevailing & historical market values of assets of identical or similar specifications & age were
researched & used for NRV-PMV, PMV1-PMV2, OAV-PMV derivations which were then used
as a comparative basis, with work-back / work-forward using the following factors for assets of
older or later YoM (year-of-manufacture) &/or of an independently commissioned design
nature:
0411.6 Scaling & equivalence factors were applied to normalize production / output capacities,
dimensions, dry weight for asset values of slightly differing specs & enable proper comparative
analyses.
0411.7 Assets were re-grouped in accordance with specific machinery classes to enable more
accurate itemized NRV-PMV / PMV-NRV derivations.
0411.8 Straight-line depreciation was applied on an asset class basis adjusted & categorized to reflect
residual value, operational life, Mean-Time-Between-Failure (MTBF) trends, & cyclical utility
patterns [where applicable].
0411.9 1st order derivatives for the host-country &/or supplier-country Producer Price Index (PPI)
were applied on an asset-class sector-wise basis as applicable.
0411.10 Lapsed-period exchange-differential impact was applied for non-offshore items & other host-
country expenses. USD was used as the primary denominations wherever possible. Exchange
rates on the basis of the annual mean were utilized for each year till 2023. The rate on 04-Jan-
2024 [281.884782] was applied for the year 2024.
0411.11 The relevant obsolescence factors were applied selectively to equipment, components,
electro-mechanical machinery & ancillaries where the base technology &/or instrumentation
has undergone significant change in core &/or display technology, & including assets where
primary functions are dependent on installed microprocessors, IC-modules & logic controllers.
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0411.12 Initial import, logistical & installation costs were factored into the values.
0411.13 Capitalized modifications, standard overhaul &/or major refit expenditures were excluded but
their impact on the operational life of the target assets were applied & adjustments made
accordingly, as a matter of course.
0412 Market-derived NRV & PMV data were compared with our proprietary databases compiled from decades
of experience in plant valuation, machinery insurance claim adjustments, as well as plant & PML / MFL
derivations for project risk assessments.
0413 Market-sourced import, landed cost & installed NRVs as well as direct locally fabricated cost-based NRVs
were obtained &/or computed for identical &/or similar & the relevant factors from above-mentioned basis
applied.
0414 Market-derived individual itemized PMV & NRV data were used as far as possible, under the said
circumstances.
0415 The Modal Mean of the results from the various methodologies was used to derive the final definitive NRV
/ PMV for plant.
◼ Building: Cost Approach
0416 Physical inspection, examination & measurements of buildings & structures to identify the construction
types, standards & levels of finish.
0417 Physical surveys on the ground were followed up by satellite photogrammetry & referenced information
from M3H & our own type & rate databases in order to establish the bases for computing the dimensions,
construction types & rates for derivation of the NRV.
0418 Physical surveys & measurements were conducted independently wherever physical or remote access
was possible & integrity of the superstructure permitted, for the buildings & structures in order to identify
the construction types, dimensions, standards & levels of finish & current condition.
0419 Condition assessment was made on the basis of physical inspection from the ground as well as our own
extensive experience in a wide range of civil engineering projects for ERV, Balance-Operational-Life
[BOL], RCA, post-fire evaluations & other condition / loss-damage assessment assignments.
0420 Structure Mean Operational Life [MOL] & End-Life Residual Values [ERV] was determined by the type of
building construction & building materials.
0421 The covered area was coupled with the applicable construction rates & NRV computed for the entire
developed, built-up & constructed area.
0422 The derived value was then depreciated using declining balance basis [computed on mean life & End-
Life Residual Values [ERV]] work-back computation & our proprietary financial models for buildings & civil
structures.
0423 Details for the individual rates & computed values are listed in the attached Annexures.
0424 The cost-approach derived values were then depreciated using our proprietary financial models using
declining balance basis [computed on mean operational life & end-life residual values] work-back
computation from the Year-of-Completion.
0500 Location
0501 The M3H main project components in order of sequence are:
0501.1 Origin at the Amandara Headworks, branching off into the lower Swat River Canal, running
past the NW outskirts of Akbarabad for 5,960m. The canal leads to a point where it passes
through the far-left & middle-left branches of a 190m 4-chamber sediment-trap & settlement
course [shared by Jabban, Dargai & M3H projects].
0501.2 From here the said water course enters the new auxiliary Tunnel-1 [3,390m] that runs parallel
to the Benton Tunnel [headwater source channeling water for the Jabban & Dargai
hydropower plants].
0501.3 Emerging at the end of a gully between the 2nd & 3rd of the laterally intervening range of 5x
open-ended spurs, 920m NNE of the Jabban powerhouse, the M3H headwater branches off
into another Tunnel-2 [540m, below the 3rd-spur]. This 2nd-tunnel, exits into the Headrace
Canal-2 [2,320m, with several concrete conduit sections] traversing the NW slope of the
penultimate 4th-spur.
0501.4 The canal then enters Tunnel-3 [1,390m, under the 4th-spur] to finally emerge at the main
M3H Sediment Excluder. Here the bulk of the flow, after passing through the excluder, is
channeled to the Forebay reservoir at the SW extremity of the 4th-spur, via Tunnel-4 [1,080m].
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0501.5 An offtake from the east side of the excluder provides the source for the direct gravity-fed
Baizai irrigation scheme that branches downstream further east via a multiple-cascade
channel.
0501.6 The headwater channeled through the final M3H sediment excluder, passes into a flow-
stabilizing Forebay reservoir, runs through the final trash grating, & into the 1st & 2nd
interconnected above- grade exposed steel Siphon-1 & -2 [150 & 80m respectively].
0501.7 These siphons lead into the final Tunnel-5 [240m], running below the 5th-spur that overlooks
the northern extremity of the main M3H powerhouse complex. This headrace emerges from
the south face of the 5th-Spur 270m away from the M3H powerhouse, enters steel Siphon-3
[70m], followed by a subsequent concrete conduit [60m].
0501.8 The concrete conduit leads to the high-pressure steel header [100m], before splitting into 3x
individual steel penstocks [41, 42 & 48m respectively] providing near-parallel feed to the 3x
turbines installed in Basement-2 of the powerhouse.
0501.9 The outflow from the turbines enters the Aftbay reservoir [46m] before entering the final
Tailrace [997m], & ultimately emptying into the 28m wide Dargai Nallah.
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0602.2 Tunnels -
0602.3 Canals -
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0702.4 M3H Tunnel-2 ▪ Below Spur-1, Spur-2, Mekhband Escarpment-1 & before end of
Escarpment-2, spanning valley between Spur-2 & Spur-3.
▪ Steel-lattice reinforced concrete wall / steel mesh / shotcrete
surfacing.
▪ Width 4m.
▪ Length 590m.
0702.5 M3H Canal-2 ▪ Partially open canal traversing the NW slope of the 3rd-spur
▪ PCC liner partially open canal [4x fully enclosed concrete conduit
sections].
▪ Width 6.50m.
▪ Total length 2,320m.
0702.6 M3H Tunnel-3 ▪ Steel-lattice reinforced concrete wall / steel mesh / shotcrete
surfacing.
▪ Width 4m.
▪ Length 1,390m.
0702.8 M3H Tunnel-4 ▪ Steel-lattice reinforced concrete wall / steel mesh / shotcrete
surfacing.
▪ Width 4m.
▪ Length 1,050m.
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0702.13 M3H Headrace ▪ Steel-lattice reinforced concrete wall / steel mesh / shotcrete
Tunnel-5 [low surfacing.
pressure penstock ▪ Width 4m.
section] ▪ Length 240m.
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▲ M3H | Tunnel-4, forebay, Steel-siphons 1-3, headrace Tunnel-5, spillway Tunnel-1, Penstock, switchyard, powerhouse, aftbay, spillway cascade
0702.22 Powerhouse / ▪ Level-1 / Ground-floor: Cabling & turbine hvac plant | 1x rail-
Turbine-1,-2,-3 mounted travelling crane [75/10mt].
▪ Basement-1: LV panels & switchgear.
▪ Basement-2 / Turbine hall:
• 3x Francis type turbines @ 27MW.
• 3x air-cooled 4-component synchronous generators with digital
governors.
• Complete lubrication & cooling systems for turbines.
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0702.23 Switchyard [breaker ▪ 2x 132kV transmission lines are connected the 132kV Dargai
& half scheme / station.
SF6] ▪ 3x ONAF power transformers @ 32MVA / 11/132kV - HV 145kV.
▪ 3x ONAN auxiliary transformers @ 500kVA / 11/400V.
▪ 3x bays | 2x Busbars | 8x breakers | 23x isolators | 24 CT | 12x PT |
5x earth switches | 6x surge arresters | 4x wave traps.
▪ Control is via programmable Distributed Control System, with
duplicated processors to 2x levels of redundancy. Real-time
video displays, with work stations, & remote controllers &
monitoring protocols. Manual backup is available with hard- wired
trip circuits.
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0702.24 Workshop & store ▪ Various manual & cnc lathe, milling, turning, grinding, measuring
complex machines.
▪ TIG / MIG welding facilities.
▪ Assorted cranes, hoists & jigs.
0810 The estimated sum-insured is derived taking into account freight, import levies, engineering / supervision
expenses for installation / commissioning, start-up, trials & commissioning costs.
0811 The figures do not include costs for design, early-stage project consultancies & start-up costs, physical
contingencies, administration / management, forex losses, contractor’s claims, performance guarantees,
price adjustments, furniture, fixtures, interest, feasibility studies, project planning &/or financial charges.
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0812 It must be understood & appreciated that contrary to an entire project being implemented & commissioned
as a single work-order & undertaking, the subject comparative plant basis estimation for each main individual
module of the project has been made treating construction / erection / installation / commissioning for the
various components of the project being treated as single, independent jobs, to be implemented, progressed,
& concluded as complete, stand-alone contracts, as would be the base scenario for probable losses &
insurance claims [PML level & below] in real terms, where only a few individual sections, modules &/or
components of the entire project are affected at any given time, & not the entire project. These insurance-
focused costs will always be substantially higher than the scales-of-economy achievable for a one-time
implementation of an identical project, & several factors greater than the original project costs.
0900 Annexures
0901 Annexure-01 Plant, building details.
0902 Annexure-02 Satellite views.
0903 Annexure-03 Photo file.
The above inspection was carefully carried out to the best of our ability & our responsibility is limited to an exercise of reasonable care. This report represents our findings on the date & at the place stated
& is issued without prejudice to the rights of whomsoever concerned. It does not intend to relieve any party from its legal &/or contractual obligations. All relating documents that were provided to us will
be preserved for 03 years from this day. Neither the whole nor any part of the report nor any reference thereto may be included in any published document or statement nor published in any way without
our written approval of the form & context in which it will appear.
Joseph Lobo are a professional firm of licensed Surveyors & Valuers, enlisted by
the Pakistan Banks Association as class-A Valuers with no limit on the Asset value