Ex 3.97 A company places a rush order for wire of two thicknesses.

Consignments of each
thickness are to be sent immediately when they are available. Previous experience suggests
that the probability is 0.8 that at least one of these consignments will arrive within a week.
It is also estimated that, if the thinner wire arrives within a week, the probability is 0.4 that
the thicker wire will also arrive within a week. Further, it is estimated that, if the thicker
wire arrives within a week, the probability is 0.6 that the thinner wire will also arrive within
a week.

a. What is the probability that the thicker wire will arrive within a week?

b. What is the probability that the thinner wire will arrive within a week?

c. What is the probability that both consignments will arrive within a week?

Solution

Let define events

+ A: “the thicker wire will arrive within a week”

+ B: “the thinner wire will arrive within a week”

From the problem, we have: P  A  B   0,8; P  A | B   0, 4; P  B | A   0, 6

a. P  A  ? , b. P  B   ? , c. P  A  B   ?


 19
 P  A   P  B   P  A  B   0,8  6 P  A  B   0,8
 P  A  B   0,8 
  P  A  B
  5
We have  P  A | B   0, 4    0, 4  P  B   P  A  B 
  P  B  2
 P  B | A   0, 6  P  A  B  5
  0, 6  P  A  3 P  A  B 
 P  A  

24 12 8
so P  A  B   , P  B   ; P  A 
95 19 19

Bình luận: Bài giải có một nghịch lý là việc tìm ba xác suất cùng lúc dễ tìm xác suất riêng
lẻ.
Ex 3.105. Tiger Funds Ltd. operates a number of mutual funds in high technology and in
financial sectors. Hussein Roberts is a fund manager who runs a major fund that includes
a wide variety of technology stocks. As fund manager he decides which stocks should be
purchased for the mutual fund. The compensation plan for fund managers includes a first-
year bonus for each stock purchased by the manager that gains more than 10% in the first
six months it is held. Of those stocks that the company holds, 40% are up in value after
being held for two years. In reviewing the performance of Mr. Roberts, they found that he
received a first-year bonus for 60% of the stocks that he purchased that were up after two
years. He also received a first-year bonus for 40% of the stocks he purchased that were not
up after two years.

What is the probability that a stock will be up after two years given that Mr. Roberts
received a first-year bonus?

Solution

Let

+ A: “Mr. Roberts receive a first-year bonus”

+ B: “The stock is up after two years”

From problem: P  B   0, 4; P  A | B   0, 6; P  A | B   0, 4  P  B   1  0, 4  0, 6 .

P  B | A  ?

We have

P  A  B P B P  A | B 1
P  B | A   
P  A   
P  B P  A | B  P B P A | B 2
Ex 3.108 The Customs Inspection agency at international airports has developed a traveler
profiling system (TPS) to detect passengers who are trying to bring more liquor into the
country than is allowed by present regulations. Long-term studies indicate that 20% of the
passengers are carrying more liquor than is allowed. Tests on the new TPS scheme has
shown that of those carrying illegal amounts of liquor, 80% will be identified and subject
to complete luggage search. In addition 20% of those not carrying illegal amounts of liquor
will also be identified by TPS and subject to a complete luggage search.

If a passenger is identified by TPS, what is the probability that the passenger is carrying an
illegal amount of liquor? Comment on the value of this system.

Solution

Let

+ A: “The passenger is carrying an illegal amount of liquor”

+ B: “The passenger is identified by TPS”

From problem: P  A  0, 2; P  B | A  0,8; P  B | A  0, 2 => P  A  1  0, 2  0,8

Calculate P  A | B   ?

P  A  B P  A P  B | A 1
P  A | B   
P  B    
P  A P  B | A  P A P B | A 2

Since P  A | B  is low, the new TPS scheme is not good.

Ex.113. A dean has found that 62% of entering freshmen and 78% of community college
transfers eventually graduate. Of all entering students, 73% are entering freshmen and the
remainder are community college transfers.

a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen entering student is an entering freshman
who will eventually graduate?

b. Find the probability that a randomly chosen entering student will eventually graduate.

c. What is the probability that a randomly chosen entering student either is an entering
freshman or will eventually graduate (or both)?

d. Are the events “eventually graduates” and “enters as community college transfer”
statistically independent?

Solution

Let

+ A: “a randomly chosen entering student eventually graduate”

+ B: “a randomly chosen entering student is an entering freshman”

=> B : “a randomly chosen entering student enters as community college transfer”

From the problem: P  A | B   0, 62; P  A | B   0, 78; P  B   0, 73; P  B   0, 27

a. P  A  B   ?

From the multiplication rule, P  A  B   P  B  P  A | B   0, 4526 .

b. P  A  ?

From the total probability rule, P  A  P  B  P  A | B   P  B  P  A | B   0, 6632

c. P  A  B   ?

From the addition rule, P  A  B   P  A  P  B   P  A  B   0,9406

d. Are A and B statistically independent?

It is enough to check that A and B are statistically independent. Indeed, we have

P  A P  B   0, 6632.0, 73  0, 484136

And

P  A  B   0, 4526 .

Hence A and B are not independent. It implies that A and B are not statistically
independent also.