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(2023) The New Cold War (Part 2). Aug WFR

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WORLD POLITICS

PART 2

THE NEW COLD WAR:


STRUGGLE FOR GLOBAL
DOMINATION by Kalim Siddiqui

Kalim Siddiqui concludes


his analysis of the global
geopolitical situation, with
reference in particular to
the US, China, and Russia,
comparing and contrasting it
with the Cold War period of
the late twentieth century.

2 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023


IV ECONOMIC AND TRADE
RIVALRY
administration
would continue
to support
US post-war military strategy was based on the pro-market
view that a rise in military expenditure would reforms in
have more than proportionate effects on growth China. He said
rates, jobs, consumption, and investments, i.e., that China was a
the well-known Keynesian multiplier effect. A huge market and
National Bureau of Economic Research study it was very impor-
(2019) found that defence spending of US$1 tant for US companies
billion raised the economy by US$1.5 billion. to engage with China.
The US has always maintained As Lixin writes, “The
superiority in defence to enhance China’s unprecedented engagement strategy
its industrial, financial, and tech- opening of its markets includes three aspects.
nological power. Cypher notes, First, support for China’s
“to conserve global ‘primacy’, US through trade and invest- Reform and Opening-up and
grand strategy requires a ‘core ment, while keeping its modernisation, a relaxation of
commitment’ to (1) maintenance national strategic indus- technology transfers to China,
and enhancement of US military granting China permanent
power projection capabilities; (2) tries firmly under the public most-favoured-nation status
preservation and expansion of sector, in the presence of the and encouraging American
the structural dominance of the
massive availability of cheap businessmen to invest in
laissez-faire economic ‘order’; China. Second is the promo-
and (3) protection and revision of labour, made China the most tion of extensive exchanges
the post-war global institutional important destination of the and cooperation in culture,
configuration” (Cypher, 2016: 800).
global supply chain after the education, academics, and
But compared to the earlier science between the two coun-
Cold War, in the new Cold War, country joined the WTO. tries, and the promotion of the
we find that, while the US is very spread of Western values in
critical of the ideas of the Chinese China. Third, support for and
Communist Party, the Chinese official media acceptance of China’s accession to the World
refrains from denouncing American values. Trade Organisation and other international
China and the US, unlike the former Soviet organisations and increasing China’s voting
Union, have engaged deeply in trade, invest- rights in the World Bank, the International
ment, the supply chain of vital products, and Monetary Fund, and other international institu-
student exchanges. This is the reason that the tions” (Lixin, 2021:8).
new Cold War is quite different and will involve China’s unprecedented opening of its
tremendous economic and social costs for both markets through trade and investment, while
sides. We do not see any direct military confron- keeping its national strategic industries firmly
tation between the countries and have no proxy under the public sector, in the presence of the
war. There is a potential flashpoint in the South massive availability of cheap labour, made China
China Sea. the most important destination of the global
Deng Xiaopeng in 1992 visited the southern supply chain after the country joined the WTO.
region of China and extended his full support By investing in China, MNCs attained economies
to the “market reforms” in China. Soon after, of scale and became internationally competi-
President Clinton granted China most-fa- tive in terms of reducing costs and thus raising
voured-nation treatment and said that his returns (Stiglitz, 2015).

www.worldfinancialreview.com 3
WORLD POLITICS

However, indigenous manufacturing was gener- reason that then-President Obama put forward
ally located at the low end of the value chain and the slogan “Bringing manufacturing back to
hence operated with low profit margins and faced America”. The Trump administration took it
a few challenges in acquiring and upgrading forward but forgot to see that implementing such
advanced technologies. From 2006 onwards, the a policy is not an easy task. The US does not have
Chinese government introduced a new policy to a comparative advantage in the manufacturing
facilitate indigenous innovation with the target to sector; one reason could be that US wages are
achieve increased higher compared
high-tech innova- China produces more goods than the US to China. The other
tion by 2022. The used to produce. And we find that the rapid reason is the US finan-
policy targeted cial sector, which is
mainly unexploited development of communication technology built on various forms
areas such as energy, and the fact that China can compete with of derivatives and its
environment, high- the US have alarmed US leaders. size has grown enor-
tech manufacturing, mously since, in the
and services. mid-1990s, it acquired
For more than three financial freedom in the name of efficiency and
decades, China’s labour high returns, while China’s financial sector is
productivity rose faster strictly government-controlled and regulated
than wages in the manu- (Yao, 2021).
facturing sector and thus Since the 2008 global financial crisis, China
rates of profits were much has narrowed its income and technological gaps
higher than in the US. China with the US, and this is seen as a threat to the US
produces more goods than the that China is challenging US technological and
US used to produce. And we find that the rapid economic supremacy. China’s catch-up with the
development of communication technology US was staggering. For instance, in 2008, China’s
and the fact that China can compete with the US GDP was only 31.2 per cent of the US GDP but, 12
have alarmed US leaders. years later, the number has more than doubled. In
The rapid rise of high-tech Chinese 2008, there were only 35 Chinese companies in the
companies poses a major challenge to the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest compa-
US manufacturing sector and that was the nies based on revenues, which was far below the

4 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023


off US companies from the Chinese markets
would adversely affect their global expansion and
would ultimately slow down their innovation.
According to statistics, the total volume
of services trade between the US and China
was US$120 billion in 2017 and the volume of
goods trade in 2018 reached US$633.5 billion.
By December 2018, the US’s total investment
reached US$85.2 billion in China. And in 2017,
the number of Chinese students studying in US
higher academic institutions was more than
350,000, which then accounted for nearly 33
per cent of the total number of international
students in the US. In 2019, five million people
travelled between the two countries.
In July 2018, President Trump imposed tariffs
number of US companies. But in 2021, China had on several goods imported from China, which
124 companies in the Fortune List, which was more continued after Biden became president. Due to
than the US. Such development has given Chinese this rising trade conflict, imports from China to
leaders more confidence in their economic policy. the US have been reduced (see figures 2 and 3).
Academics also in recent years began debating Imports from China declined further from March
China’s success and it was said that the dramatic 2020 as global trade collapsed due to the COVID-19
rise of China was due to its authoritarian govern- pandemic and have since then recovered gradu-
ment policy with active state involvement in the ally. Only recently, US imports from China have
economy, i.e., state capitalism (Li, 2020). returned to pre-trade-war levels, while imports
In the past, virtually all the now-advanced from the rest of the world are above the pre-war
economies had adopted interventionist indus- level. China is now the source of only 18 per cent
trial policies to promote domestic industries, of total US goods imports, down from 22 per
exports, and investments. They also supported cent at the onset of the trade war. In contrast
industrialisation in their take-off stage of to this, at present, US imports from the rest of
economic development and structural change. It the world have risen to 38 per cent compared to
means that industrialisation must precede liber- pre-trade-war levels and are even above that level
alisation. But to say that China did the opposite (blue line). With a few exceptions, these imports
by liberalising its economy before industrialisa- were not hit with new US tariffs.
tion from the mid-1980s onwards is incorrect.
In December 2017, the Trump administra- The value of US goods imports from China and
tion unveiled the US National Security Strategy FIGURE 2 the rest of the world, 2016-22 (June 2018=100)
Report, which proposed that the US was entering 150 July 2018 March 2020
into a new era of power competition. The report US starts trade war Global trade collapses as
the pandemichits

portrayed China as a “strategic competitor” that 125


wants to shape a world antithetical to US values
and interests. US elites were alarmed by China’s
100
fast upgrading of its advancements in the tele-
communications sector. The US ban on Chinese
access to high-tech would affect innovation 75

because it needs markets to meet the costs. China


is the largest market for US products and cutting 50
Aug 2016 Jan 2018 Jan 2019 Jan 2020 Jan 2021 Jan 2022 Aug 2022

Source: https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/four-years-trade-war-are-us-and-china-decoupling

www.worldfinancialreview.com 5
WORLD POLITICS

FIGURE 3 Levels of tariffs on exports – US and China, 2018-20


25%
Chinese tariff on US export
American tariff on Chinese export
In fact, President Trump under Section 301 of the 20%
Trade Act of 1974 imposed a tariff of 25 per cent
on products of nearly US$34 billion of US imports 15%
from China in July 2018. China retaliated, the
trade war continued, and the US imposed 10 per 10%
cent tariffs on an additional US$200 billion of
imports in September 2018, increasing the rate of
5%
those duties to 25 per cent in June 2019.
Moreover, the goods that were affected by
0%
25 per cent tariffs by the US were largely inter-

Jan-18

Mar-8

May-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19

Jul-19

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20
mediate inputs and capital equipment which,
because they were used by firms to make other
Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s42533-021-00071-1
consumer goods or to provide services, were
less visible to consumers. Imports of some prod-
ucts were lower, despite rising demand in the US
during the pandemic, contributing to shortages, The US sees China under President Xi Jinping
and costs for firms using these imported inputs as becoming more assertive and stronger, both
rose sharply. As a result, such companies were economically and militarily, with its boosting
forced to either continue importing from China economy not even deterred by the recent
even with the tariff or find new suppliers from adverse impact of COVID-19 and backing its Belt
other countries. Other examples, such as IT hard- and Road Initiative (BRI) (Siddiqui, 2019b). It
ware and electronics, were in higher demand seems that any return to the pre-2017 world of
during the COVID-19 lockdown, i.e. modems, “strategic engagement” with China is unlikely.
routers, network servers, smart watches, and The Chinese economic policy of advancing
wireless headphones. In fact, US imports from its technological capability, particularly “Made
China of such goods declined from 62 per cent in China 25”, is certainly seen by the US as direct
after the imposition of 25 per cent tariffs. In competition with the US global companies in the
contrast, US imports from the rest of the world services and knowledge sectors. This Chinese
are now 60 per cent higher. China’s share of US attempt is taken as competition rather than
imports of IT hardware and complementary and seems
consumer electronics has The world has entered a new age to be a threat to US global
declined from 38 per cent to of intra-core rivalry and US and technological hegemony.
13 per cent. Thus, new development has
Other important prod- Chinese competition will shape created a rift between the US
ucts imported were vehicle the trajectory of the capitalist and China since 2018.
parts from China, which was world order for decades to come. China’s economic rise
seen by the US car industry is underlined by its growth
as a threat. Imports from China and the rest of model, which is perceived to have the desire
the world fell sharply during COVID-19, as the to re-divide the world and expand its sphere
car industry in the US stopped production due of influence. Therefore, it is predicted that
to the COVID-19 pandemic. After the end of the the US and China will continue to be strategic
pandemic, US imports from the rest of the world rivals, shaped by external and internal forces
have recovered and at present it is 20 per cent (see figures 4 and 5). The world has entered
higher, but imports from China due to the tariffs a new age of intra-core rivalry and US and
have only just returned to pre-trade-war levels. Chinese competition will shape the trajectory
However, China’s share of US vehicle parts imports of the capitalist world order for decades to
has only dropped from 15 per cent to 13 per cent. come.

6 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023


FIGURE 4 Strategic rivals of the US compared (% of the US level)

USSR in the 1980s*


China now*
GDP (at purchasing During the past decade, China has printed a lot
power parity)
of money to stimulate growth. But capital control
GDP per head (at PPP) has been imposed to prevent capital flight and this
may hinder capital from fleeing the country when
Population
given the chance. Sharma notes, “Since 2015, the
Military spending Renminbi share of payments through the Swift
network for international bank transactions has
Exports
fallen by a fifth, from an already negligible level
0 100 200 300 400
under 3 per cent. A widely followed index that
USSR 1980 except exports (1981) and military spending (1987).
*
ranks 165 nations by capital account openness
China forecast for 2018 except military spending and exports (both 2017)
puts China at 106th... While Chinese investors are
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/c9e5ab54-dc2a-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b
restricted from investing abroad, foreigners are
scared away from China by erratic government
FIGURE 5
Trade dependence – exports to China attempts to control the market. That helps explain
over exports to the US, 2017
why unlike in other nations, stocks in China do not
PARITY
Export more to US Export more to China
rise and fall with economic growth” (Sharma, 2022).
0 2 4 6 8 In fact, at present in China, foreign compa-
Australia
Russia nies own only 5 per cent of stocks, while nearly
Taiwan
S Korea
28 per cent in other emerging markets, and about
Brazil 3 per cent of bonds in China, compared to around
Saudi Arabia
Indonesia 20 per cent in other developing nations (Sharma,
Thailand
Japan 2022). However, nearly 90 per cent of global
Germany
France foreign exchange transactions take place in US
Spain
Nigeria
dollars, and only 5 per cent are in Renminbi.
UK During the Japanese economic boom of the
Turkey
Italy 1980s, the country emerged as both a financial
India
Canada and economic power. The Japanese yen and stocks
Egypt
Mexico
reflected that strength and Tokyo emerged as a global
financial centre. However, at present, the Chinese
Source: https://www.ft.com/content/c9e5ab54-dc2a-11e8-8f50-cbae5495d92b
Renminbi is not considered by investors a safe desti-
nation. China is still a long way from becoming a
In 2010, China began to show its financial ambi- financial superpower.
tions by using the Renminbi in international
transactions and as a part of projecting the
Renminbi as a global currency. The reason for
China’s global financial desire was due to the fact
that its economic share of global GDP had almost
quintupled from 4 per cent to 18 per cent, and its
share of global trade had quadrupled to 15 per
cent in the last two decades. In recent human
history, no other economy in the world has grown
so fast and in such a sustained way for so many
years. Moreover, China’s stock market has been
performing well compared to other developed
economies, and the Renminbi raised its share of
global central bank reserves to 3 per cent in 2021,
up from 1 per cent in 2016 (Sharma, 2022).

www.worldfinancialreview.com 7
WORLD POLITICS

US President Joe Biden, in a joint speech to the


US Congress, declared that the US is in compe-
tition with China “to win the 21st century”, as
he put it. However, the US government under
Biden, and of course before, under Trump, has
imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia
and China. So, while on the one hand, he is
continuing the nationalistic trade policies of
the Trump administration, Biden is escalating
the new Cold War against Russia and China, in
the belief that the US can impose sanctions and
isolate them, which will lead to the fall of their
governments (Kovalik, 2017).
The US attempted to isolate Russia, so that
it can recapture the resources and resume the
sale of Russia’s national resources and public
utilities to the US-based MNCs. This is unlikely
to be repeated. The actual effect of the sanctions
on Russia and China has been to drive them
together, rather than isolate them.
The question in this is, what about Europe?
In the last few weeks, there has been a lot of
discussion about cutting Russia off from the US, while China is trying to avoid the rentier
SWIFT bank clearing system, and of other sanc- policies, as well as the financialisation and
tions against Russia. Russia has already worked privatisation that has made America so high-
with China to develop its own alternative to the cost and so ineffective. And the US is blaming
SWIFT banking clearing system. So Russian China for over-regulating and supporting its
domestic payments are not going to be that businesses (Siddiqui, 2021).
disrupted, after the week or two that they say it For the classical economists, the whole
will take to put the new system in. But certainly, concept of free markets, from Adam Smith to
cutting off Russia from the SWIFT system does John Stuart Mill, was to free industrial capi-
block its trade and its economic talism from the rentier class, from
relations with Europe. The US the landlords, and from banking
would like to see Europe more There is a serious threat and the monopolies that banks
dependent on the it for the supply of escalation beyond created in organising trusts. So,
of vital resources. the US realises that the economy
In the US, money is not made by Ukraine, not to mention has been transformed in the last
its companies investing in industry the danger of nuclear war. 40 years, since the 1980s, since
and in production. But its big Ronald Reagan and Margaret
companies can make huge profits, Thatcher, when Margaret Thatcher
largely via monopoly rents, resource rents, said, “There is no alternative.” Of course, there
or other forms of rent extraction. And 90 per were many alternatives. But the US would like to
cent of corporate income in the US is spent on create the “rules-based order” of free markets,
share buybacks and dividend pay-outs, not on meaning no government power to regulate or
investing in new industries and it is no longer tax the corporate and rules-based order that
expected that any dramatic increase in private supports the rentier class – a hereditary, finan-
investment in manufacturing will occur in the cial, small minority of rich corporates of the

8 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023


population, which could hold the rest of the Russian journalist, Mr Putin “flew into a rage”
population in debt, or keep them in permanent and warned that “if Ukraine joins NATO, it will
dependency and job insecurity. do so without Crimea and the eastern regions…
The US has often used its military power to America ignored Moscow’s red line, however,
enhance its political, industrial, and financial and pushed forward to make Ukraine a Western
base. As Brooks et al. emphasised, “Deep engage- bulwark on Russia’s border… These efforts even-
ment allows the United States to institutionalise tually sparked hostilities in February 2014, after
its alliances and wrap its hegemonic rule in an uprising (which was supported by America)
its rules-based order. The result is to make the caused Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor
US alliance system – especially among its core Yanukovych, to flee the country… The next major
liberal members – far more robust and harder to confrontation came in December 2021 and led
challenge than if the United States were to disen- directly to the current war. The main cause was
gage” (cited in Cypher, 2016:801). that Ukraine was becoming a de facto member
On Ukraine’s current crisis, Professor John of NATO… Unsurprisingly, Moscow found this
Mearsheimer (2022) argues, “The West, and espe- evolving situation intolerable and began mobi-
cially America, is principally responsible for lising its army on Ukraine’s border last spring
the crisis which began in February 2014. It has to signal its resolve to Washington. But it had no
now turned into a war that not only threatens effect, as the Biden administration continued
to destroy Ukraine but also has the potential to to move closer to Ukraine.” He further states,
escalate into a nuclear war between Russia and “America and its allies may be able to prevent
NATO. The trouble over Ukraine started at NATO’s a Russian victory in Ukraine, but the country
Bucharest summit in April 2008… Russian leaders will be gravely damaged, if not dismembered.
responded immediately with outrage, character- Moreover, there is a serious threat of escalation
ising this decision as an existential threat to Russia beyond Ukraine, not to mention the danger of
and vowing to thwart it. According to a respected nuclear war” (Mearsheimer, 2022).

www.worldfinancialreview.com 9
WORLD POLITICS

Russian President Putin appears to be began with the collapse of the Soviet Union
concerned about the security threat to his and then, under President Boris Yeltsin, Russia
country. But due to this security threat, he witnessed a huge rise in inequality.
opposes the IMF policy not because the IMF is In the name of efficiency and competition,
basically a promoter of international finance the IMF would like to eliminate the role of
capital but because the IMF is promoting US the government to intervene in the economy.
foreign policy. Putin is concerned with the role It means the removal of subsidies to small
of the IMF in facilitating the US hegemony over and medium producers and their role to keep
Ukraine. But in the case of the confrontation essential goods prices low and remove its
between Russia and Ukraine, there seems to be role to provide education, healthcare, and
a close intermingling of the US foreign policy employment.
interests with the IMF. Therefore, it is not only There is a general objective of the MNCs
the question of the role of the IMF but here that all countries should be open to the free
in this instance, keeping Ukraine under IMF movement of capital and finance and even
control. Moreover, the IMF insists that to borrow commodities. In fact, that is the essence of the
more, Ukraine has to meet certain conditionali- neoliberal economic policy that fundamen-
ties including a reduction in real wages and cuts tally economies should be opened. It is not just
in welfare spending, particularly in the health- for capital to come in and set up industries or
care and education sectors. capital to come in and buy up industries. But
Putin has presided over the growth of capital must come in also to take control of the
tremendous inequality in Russia. However, it sources of raw materials (Siddiqui, 2022).

10 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023


CONCLUSION joint ventures and part-
nerships with global
During the Cold War with the Soviet Union, businesses and access
there was an ideological confrontation between to acquire new technology
communism and capitalism. It was generally from Western companies.
believed that the hegemony of international In the 1990s, when China opened to inter-
finance capital was thwarted by the Soviet Union national trade and was admitted to the WTO
and East European countries, as these countries in 2001, this opened a huge market to foreign
were part of the centrally planned economies companies and investors where MNCs based
and not integrated with the US and EU markets. in the West could sell their products and get rid
Under it, the state played a very important role of the overproduction crisis. And also, taking
in generally directing the way in which the advantage of a huge pool of educated and
economy was to develop. Therefore, that was a low-cost workers and earning higher profits
regime in which the Soviet Union was opposed under such circumstances, China became the
to the free operation of the market and the free “workshop of the world”. During the 1990s,
operation of international finance capital. China’s exports enjoyed low-tariff access to the
Putin is by no means against the hegemony US market, which encouraged China to join
of international finance capital. He is not in an WTO in 2001. In February 2020, the US and
ideological battle against the domination of a China kept the same level of tariffs. Compared to
neighbouring country by an organisation that the pre-trade-war period, US tariffs on Chinese
acts in the interests of international finance products increased 2.5 times (Yao, 2021).
capital. His concern is only with China’s phenomenal growth
Russian security. He is, in other over the last four decades has had
words, concerned only with the China’s phenomenal growth no comparison in human history.
role of the IMF as a promoter of over the last four decades China has done quite well so far
US geostrategic interests, not with in terms of growth and has been
the role of the IMF as a promoter has had no comparison able to reduce poverty signifi-
of neoliberalism in general. In in human history. China cantly in the last less than four
fact, the gross inequality and has done quite well so far decades.
even absolute destitution that a This study has discussed
neoliberal regime created is not in terms of growth and the rising tension on economic
too far from what Putin himself has been able to reduce and strategic issues, espe-
has achieved. We should not
poverty significantly in the cially between the US, China,
forget that after the collapse of the and Russia, and it seems that
Soviet Union, the IMF’s neoliberal last less than four decades. following the end of the Cold War,
reforms were adopted by Russia the US in its quest to consolidate
and resulted in a huge drop in the country’s GDP, its global hegemony has attempted to redraw
a huge fall in the national income, and a massive the imperialist spheres of influence globally.
increase in unemployment. At present, the US economy is performing
In the 1980s, when China opened its economy poorly in terms of growth, productivity, and
for foreign capital and technology with its low investments compared to China. The chal-
unit costs attracted foreign capital, China became lenger, i.e., China, has to figure out in which
a new “workshop of the world”. Due to the avail- areas the US is weak and how to strengthen its
ability of cheap labour and good infrastructure, economy and global influence. This is the same
China was able to retain a large proportion strategy the US adopted a century earlier when
of surplus value generated in the case of most it was trying to replace Britain. Recently, China
developing countries and successfully created has made an alliance with Russia.

www.worldfinancialreview.com 11
WORLD POLITICS

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Kalim Siddiqui is an economist specialising in International Political Economy, Development


Economics, International Trade, and International Economics. His work, which combines
elements of international political economy and development economics, economic policy,
economic history and international trade, often challenges prevailing orthodoxy about which
policies promote overall development in less-developed countries. Kalim teaches international
economics at the Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics, University of Huddersfield,
UK. He has taught economics since 1989 at various universities in Norway and the UK.

12 THE WORLD FINANCIAL REVIEW AUGUST – SEPTEMBER 2023

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