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Green Finance Instruments, Fintech, and Investment Strategies: Sustainable Portfolio Management in The Post-Covid Era 1St Edition Nader Naifar
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Sustainable Finance
Nader Naifar
Ahmed Elsayed Editors
Green Finance
Instruments,
FinTech, and
Investment
Strategies
Sustainable Portfolio Management in
the Post-COVID Era
Sustainable Finance
Series Editors
Karen Wendt, CEO. Eccos Impact GmbH, President of SwissFinTechLadies,
President Sustainable-Finance, Cham, Zug, Switzerland
Margarethe Rammerstorfer, Professor for Energy Finance and Investments, Institute
for Finance, Banking and Insurance WU, Vienna, Austria
Sustainable Finance is a concise and authoritative reference series linking research
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Preface
v
vi Preface
want to deeply understand the impact of green finance and FinTech on future
investment and financing strategies in a post-COVID-19 pandemic.
To my father and my mother, my wife and my children, and to all my friends and
colleagues, Thank you for your support!
vii
Contents
ix
x Contents
xi
xii About the Editors
K. S. Sastry Musti
1 Introduction
Meeting the ever-growing energy demand has remained a major challenge to many
countries. While developed nations strive to achieve energy adequacy, developing
countries are trying to strike a balance between energy demand and supply. Capacity
addition in the energy sector is financially intense and even requires careful analysis
due to several risks involved. The major risk at the global level is the negative impact
of energy production and utilization on the environment. Many studies have pointed
to the need of combating the global warming, and energy sector is one of major
contributors. Concerted efforts are in place at all levels to reduce the global warming
by encouraging the use of environmentally friendly energy options. Green financing
in general is aimed at increasing the use of renewable energies and reducing the use
of fossil fuels. However, in the world of financing, needs of the fund seekers initiate
the dynamics of the well-known supply and demand game. Adequate energy
production and distribution are essential for social and economic growth of any
nation, and the study of financing in energy sector is always interesting. Due to the
contemporary climate policies and technological advances, green financing has
become an excellent landscape for researchers.
Energy markets are decentralized in many countries and thus electricity supply
industry (ESI) more or less consists of independent verticals (Lingyan et al., 2022;
Liu et al., 2020). The major ones are the generation companies (GenCos), transmis-
sion companies (TransCos), and distribution companies (DisCos). Though there are
several advantages of such decentralization, the major objective is to improve
technical and operational efficiencies of the individual verticals and also to encour-
age private investment in the energy sector (Jin et al., 2021; Managi et al., 2022).
Financing in energy sector can be a complex landscape to understand. Several
factors including, but not limited to policy frameworks, technical, social, and
financial aspects influence the state of ESI. It is usual to operate the sector with a
lot of debt and debt financing. Let us examine the South African ESI, as it serves as
good example for the scope of this chapter as there is a significant gap between
demand and supply and also investments into the ESI have been differed over the
years. As of now, global policies and South African national outlook do not entirely
favor the coal-based energy production. This points to the need of considering the
green financing avenues. According to a 2019 report (DPE, 2019), Eskom has a
long-term debt exceeding R441 billions (approx USD29 billions). Its financial ratios
clearly indicate that the financial debt and other challenges have been growing over
several years. In 2019, Eskom has reported an annual loss in excess of R20 billion,
and several municipalities were not able to collect the bills from the consumers
(DPE, 2019; Sastry, 2007). According to the GreenPeace study, generation compa-
nies are the worst hit financially as South African generation companies reported
heavy losses over successive financial years, 2018 and 2019 (GreenPeace, 2019). At
the same time, it is interesting to note that distribution companies have shown profits,
and transmission companies have done slightly better when compared to generation
companies. Added to this, the GreenPeace report clearly indicates that reasons for
such financial conditions of the organizations cannot be explained without informa-
tion. This clearly shows that cash flows have not been as expected and payment
delays and defaults have occurred. Hence, there are several conflicting and
supporting aspects to the green financing for ESI do exist. Stakeholders have their
own interests, and value chain gets influenced by several aspects.
Energy projects are financially intense due to inherent nature of essential needs
and high value chain engineering and social ecosystems. Most capacity addition
projects are typically planned over 20 or 25 or even 30-year horizon. Global trends in
climate policies explicitly encourage the of renewable energy technologies (RETs)
to reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. However, capacity addition in any
segment be it using RETs and/or with fossil fuels takes considerable planning,
resources, and time (Dziugaite-Tumeniene et al., 2017; Sastry Musti et al., 2021).
For instance, the overall costs of RETs in the solar segment are very low; however,
solar firms need a lot of land to produce the same amount of energy when compared
to a thermal power plant. However, the average time to establish a solar power plant
is far lower when compared to a thermal plant. Similarly, it usually takes 10–15
years to establish a hydropower plant and requires significant amount of land as well.
Fossil fuel-based energy production also requires a lot of water for cooling and other
operations (Li and Huang, 2020; Sastry et al., 2013). Utilization of land for
establishing the power plants results in displacing a large number of people and in
some cases removal of forests. Thus, a conflict can be seen between the energy
generation for national needs and social and environmental interests. At the same
time, a lot of capital is required for establishing power infrastructure, and it is
common to seek loans for major international lending houses and/or through private
investors (Chen and Ma, 2021). However, most international funding agencies are
now obligated to provide funding for capacity addition projects and other energy-
related initiatives that are environmentally friendly (He et al., 2019; Azhgaliyeva
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 5
et al., 2020). This results in a constraint that opposes the use of fossil fuels, though
some countries may have the natural resources. In other words, there is a nexus
between resources and needs that needs to be resolved through careful planning
(Chang & Starcher, 2019; Sastry Musti & Van der Merwe, 2022). As of now, no
research work has completely addressed the complexity and challenges in green
financing to energy projects. Thus, in the first instance, all the factors related to ESI
development need to be identified. Further, interdependencies and conflicting
aspects between those factors need to be identified as well. To address these gaps,
this chapter focuses on green financing in energy sector through elaborate discus-
sions on technical and financial aspects. For this, the chapter first takes up discussion
related to some selected, yet key needs, challenges, and risks in ESI. Challenges in
the decision-making processing will be illustrated. Then it deals with the possible
opportunities and the application of multicriteria decision methods (MCDM) for
making informed decisions specifically in the areas of capacity addition and risk
evaluation.
2 Literature Review
International climate policies, increasing awareness, and even falling prices of RETs
have prompted various nations to take up the path toward clean energy. United
Kingdom has taken a decision to close a few older nuclear power stations as part of
its clean energy initiatives. In its 2019 report, Eskom, the South African utility
recommended the decommissioning of its oldest coal-fired power stations
(GreenPeace, 2019). However, such initiatives need to be backed up with newer
energy production facilities that are environmentally friendly and also capable of
meeting the energy needs of the nation. Energy projects are financially intense and
thus require huge amounts of capital investments and of course timely and smoother
flow of funds to maintain the infrastructure. Since energy is related to different areas
such as economic development, social obligations, and industrial development,
research on the financial aspects is interesting. In fact, energy financing is a very
vast area and indeed complex various areas exist due to the logistics, supply chain,
market design, complexities conflicting, and interrelated aspects (Carfora et al.,
2021; Chen et al., 2019; Dutta et al., 2020). Some utilities have openly reported
the challenges related to managing the energy sector through comprehensive anal-
ysis, specifically pointing to the poor financial conditions, reducing revenues and
losses over successive years (DPE, 2019). Replacing the old, fossil fuel-based plants
with eco-friendly energy systems are quite challenging due to several reasons. Thus,
combating the global warming requires appropriate policy decisions at the highest
level and then resolving various technical and logistical complexities to push the
green initiatives forward.
With the recent developments in renewables and environmental conditions,
several countries are more inclined to add capacity in solar PV, wind, and other
renewable segments. However, such resources are dependent on local conditions and
6 K. S. Sastry Musti
have several technological challenges in delivering the energy to the end consumer.
Naturally, green financing is now becoming the norm due to changing policies and
frameworks in most countries. The major reasons behind this are the availability of
funding for green initiatives, falling costs of RETs, and proven track record of smart
grid technologies in cost savings and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Thus,
green financing can be sought in different areas—building new RE power plants,
development of smart grids, and/or transformation of legacy networks (Trinasolar,
2022). Financing such long-term green energy projects that too in large sums
requires a lot of information and careful planning (Musti, 2021; Sastry Musti
et al., 2021; Shiljkut and Rajakovic, 2015). Though there are several factors, actions,
and stakeholders that influence energy financing, a few of them are outlined below.
From the above discussion, on the policy front, major aspects are ability of the
ESI to uptake energy mix, support for smart grids, fair market conditions for IPPs,
appropriate policies for cost sharing based on their geo-location, fine turning of
policies related to Demand Side Management (DSM), Energy Efficiency (EE) and
Circular Economy (CE). On the operational front, independent variables also need to
be understood well. They include aggregated demand response of the system, energy
injected by the prosumers, consumer-initiated saving strategies, consumer migration
(due to the lack of employment and/or cost of living), power thefts, and nonpayment
of bills (Sastry, 2007). Figure 1 shows all of these in perspective to provide a
graphical illustration of major issues that will be taken up in this chapter for
discussion.
Risk evaluation is most important and central for any financing model. The
classical financing landscape uses the well-known credit score approach as it is the
single parameter on which both financiers and loan seekers keep a close watch.
Fig. 1 A schematic representation of a typical ESI with various actors, verticals, stakeholders, and
actions
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 7
Financiers would want their customers to have a healthy credit score as it represents
their repaying abilities. Also, financiers do expect a comprehensive and genuine
framework for the evaluation of credit score. Once the loan is granted, the financiers
would expect a free flow of information about the changing financial standing and
assured cash flows. In other words, financiers would want to understand the risks
before lending and try to establish and maintain the cash flows toward timely
servicing of the loan. Now the customers try hard to secure the loans to meet their
financial needs and generally try to maintain healthy credit scores to demonstrate
their good financial standing. At the same time, finance companies that almost act as
a bridge (or agents) between the financiers and the recipients will advise both parties
on various aspects—specifically the financiers on possible risks and terms and
conditions to the customers. And then, collateral arrangements have their own role
as permitted by the applicable legal framework. Green financing is no different from
the other forms of financing; however, the analysis related to risks involved,
challenges and opportunities to the stakeholders is of significant interest
(Azhgaliyeva et al., 2020; Hauwanga & Musti, 2022). However, the evaluation of
risks involved in energy financing can be quite broad subject. Risks can be associ-
ated with different aspects such as the national-level framework, current financial
standing of the stakeholders, abilities to make profits, abilities to payback, techno-
logical choices in selecting the RETs, and resource availabilities (Hashemizadeh
et al., 2021; He et al., 2019; Musti & Kapali, 2021; Şerban et al., 2016). For example,
if the national policy is not favoring the use of RETs, then there may not be any
scope at all for green financing. Similarly, if the national policy provides significant
levels of encouragement and financial incentives for DSM, EE and CE, then
consumers resort to reduce (or even avoid) the use of electricity and even may
shift to other energy options such as roof-top solar and/or water heating systems
(Goddin, 2020; Musti, 2020a, 2020b). This directly results in reduced incomes to the
utilities. However, CE, DSM, and even energy efficiency (EE) initiatives are key
elements of green initiatives, though they act in opposition to the interests of the
green financiers.
Typically, governments and regulators strive toward least cost capacity addition
to cut financial burden. However, aspects such as availability of resources for energy
production, continuous load growth, expansion of societies, changing policies due to
leadership changes will affect overall costs of energy projects. Though green
financing goes well with least cost planning strategies, earning models are subject
to several conditions as narrated above. Among the different energy resources, solar
photovoltaic (PV) is an attractive option for electric power producers when selecting
the most suitable RET to implement (Pitra & Musti, 2021; Dall et al., 2019). This is
because of its unique relationship to system integration, its decreasing cost, perfor-
mance improvements, and its huge unexploited resource potential. Thus, capacity
addition in the solar PV segment has gone up for obvious reasons. In many cases,
excess amounts of solar energy during peak hours can result in negative loading
conditions due to the fact that supply is far greater than the load itself. And this leads
to the formation of duck curve phenomena. Under this condition, energy from RE
plants is curtailed and thus resulting in loss of revenues to the IPPs. Least-cost
8 K. S. Sastry Musti
planning is always subjected to resolving the resource nexus, and thus, decision
making in picking the RETs is always complex as it is not entirely mathematical.
Risk assessment also involves several parameters that are cannot be measured
directly. MCDM tools provide an excellent avenue to deal with such complex
settings. Ekholm et al. (2014) have proposed MCDM methods to resolve climate
policy issues. Sastry Musti and Van der Merwe (2022) developed a simple
MS-Excel tool for selecting the energy mix. However, there is no simple MCDM
tool at present available to undertake risk evaluation. This chapter makes an attempt
to address this very gap.
DSM strategies encourage energy savings; installation of small-scale roof-top PV
systems with or without storage and solar water heaters. Regulators recommend
liberal financial incentives to the consumers who follow the DSM guidelines. Thus,
most modern consumers are transforming themselves into prosumers, and this
results in decrease in the energy consumption and this in turn results in revenue
loss to the utility. Thus, DSM nearly acts in opposition to load growth, and thus,
green financing strategies need to consider current DSM policies, demand response
in general, and also prospects for load growth. Due to environmental concerns and
steep reduction in the capital and levelized costs, renewable energies are popular
choice for capacity expansion. Utilities in most countries are allowing independent
producers to participate in their energy markets, more specifically in the solar-pv and
wind segments. Increasing penetration of solar-pv and wind has resulted in duck
curve phenomena, and many utilities have reported the technical and financial
challenges associated with duck curve phenomena. Typically, the off-taker will
curtail the solar-pv in-feed and continue to utilize base load plants. This poses
significant risks to the operations of IPPs. This aspect is now seen as major financial
threat, and this predominantly affects green financiers.
Energy market design greatly influences the wheeling and other infrastructure
usage charges Freytag (2020). Location of IPP, mode of loss allocation in the
network, and availability of single buyer will also influence the revenues of IPPs
(Liao et al., 2011; Hauwanga & Musti, 2022). Thus, investors and financiers need to
analyze present energy market designs, wheeling charges, and prospects of finding a
nearby single buyer to ensure financial inflows and revenues. Apart from the above,
several other challenges that are specific to a country’s socioeconomic conditions do
exist. Some of them include, but not limited to (1) absence of required frameworks
for green finance or finance to clean energies, (2) lack of internal data/information
systems, which may result in inaccurate estimations for setting national investment
policy, (3) absence of regulatory and legal framework directly related to green
finance, (4) lack of proper framework for energy transition toward clean energies
that might result in poor green project selection and management, (5) information
asymmetry at the capital markets, and (6) lack of analytical tools and expertise in
identification and assessment of green projects’ risks. Further, there may be a few
hard factors that can influence green projects. They include cheaper and guaranteed
energy imports from neighboring countries, lack of resources (such as land, water,
etc.) that may prevent capacity addition in large quantities, especially in the cases of
small island countries and/or land locked countries.
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 9
From the above, it can be seen that green financing is gaining lot of prominence.
However, there are several factors that have to be carefully considered in order to
ensure sustainable project progress and stable financial outlook. There are several
interdependent, cross-dependent, and mutually conflicting aspects that need to be
studied carefully and resolved through a structured fashion. Understanding and
analyzing the risks and applying the multicriteria decision methods to some of the
problems can provide successful pathways to reap the benefits of green financing
opportunities in energy sector. In this context, this chapter has the following
objectives:
• Qualitative and quantitative treatment of various factors related to green financing
• Challenges, risks, and opportunities for green financing.
• Application of MCDM for green capacity addition and risk evaluation
Energy need of the nation is the key most driver for sustained investments into the
ESI. To effectively manage the ESI, different stakeholders have different needs.
There are challenges and so are the risks. The subsections below discuss some of the
key needs, challenges, and risks.
Knowing the varying load in real time and then adjusting the generation levels is an
operational requirement. Thus, load information is a need for the utilities. For this,
meters in different locations measure the key parameters and send to the central
facilities so that generation can be adjusted if possible.
The conventional, fossil fuel-based generation and load consumption patterns are
changing rapidly due to various reasons, but mostly due to the advent of smart
infrastructure being put in the place, in the immediate past. And this is true for many
countries even now, where little or no renewable energies are used. Typical (legacy)
generation and load profile are shown in Fig. 2. The hatched region indicates the
power generated and/or supplied to the feeder at a constant level of 780 kW
throughout the day. Load is varying according to the consumption patterns of the
consumers on the feeders. It can be seen that load consumption is not constant over
any given day.
The hatched region indicates the energy that is supplied, but not consumed.
Which means, utility did not earn any revenue for this energy that is supplied, but
not sold. This means revenues for a significant part of the energy are “lost.” A few
points should be noted here. (1) Generation levels are normally in mega-watts, and
this example has used kW only for illustration purposes and this means quantity and
10 K. S. Sastry Musti
900
800
Unsold, unutilized energy
700
600
Peak load
500
400
300
200
Based load
100
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Fig. 2 Daily load profile and energy supplied by a base load plant
costs of energy lost can be very high. (2) Load profile can be visualized typically for
a specific consumer, or for a feeder or even for an area such as a building or even a
city. (3) Load profile can be visualized for a day or for a month (with average values)
or for a year based on requirements. (4) Then consumption over the weekends and
holidays differ significantly from that of weekdays due to obvious reasons. (5) The
example uses a case of 11 kV power distribution feeder with a limited number of
consumers (peak load: 780 kW) in a small area. (6) Generation sources, especially
fossil-fuel based, base load generation facilities are from power distribution areas
where the end consumers are located. This means, there will be power loss over the
transmission lines while transporting the energy, which generally varies, but can be
safely assumed as 10% by taking the mix of high power and lower power distribu-
tion lines into consideration. (7) One important aspect about fossil fuel-based
generation is that every plant normally will have different generator units and
plant engineers do control the overall energy plant output based on the load forecast
and power dispatch information that is available to them. At the hindsight, it may
appear as though it is possible to reduce the unsold energy by switching off a part of
generation when not required. However, such a case is not possible as thermal power
plants cannot be switched off and on frequently due to ramp-up and ramp-down
constraints. Even otherwise, such switching on/off requires a lot of real-time infor-
mation and extensive computation.
From the above, it can be seen that nonrenewable energy plants such as coal,
nuclear and natural gas are normally used to supply the base load. These are base-
load plants that typically result in a significant amount of unutilized energy and also
contribute to greenhouse gas emissions. With the advent of smart grids and RETs, it
is possible to mitigate some of the problems. Now, let us examine the case of smart
grids with appropriate control technology. Smart grids have the ability to incorporate
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 11
RETs such as solar and wind energies at various points in the power grid. Let us
consider a simple example of formulating an energy mix solution to a town with a
peak load of 390 MW at 13h00 (or 1PM) during the day and has a base load of
150 MW. Let us say a few more MWs of energy (say, 495 MW) is required to cater
to the power losses during the peak time. If the energy pool is designed in such a way
that only a coal-based power plant with a base generation of 495 MW, then a
significant amount of energy (except during the peak loading) will stay unutilized
and thus remains unpaid for. Such planning is not effective and not economical.
Since peak, in this illustration occurs as mid noon as in most cases, it is desirable to
consider building a solar farm as solar energy is available during those hours.
It is important to consider system losses and reserve energy. While system losses
(transmission, transformation, and other losses) generally go up to 9–12% depending
on various aspects, the reserve energy is generally planned at 10–15%. This means
base generation should be around 150 MW (of load) + 41 MW (losses plus
reserve) = 195 MW. This can be considered as 200 MW approximately. At the
peak, the generation should be 390 MW (peak load) + 105 MW (losses plus
reserve) = 495 MW approximately. Now an appropriate energy mix needs to be
simulated for this scenario.
There are many takeaways here. First, energy outputs of base load plant and the
solar energy plants are now mixed to realize the energy mix. Second, variations of
both energy and the load are now looking similar as shown in Fig. 3. This is what is
called load following energy production, as the pattern of overall energy production
closely matches with that of the load. Third, a portion of the load, specifically the
load during the peak hours, is now met by cheaper and environmentally friendly
solar energy. Lastly, solar plants are located closer to the grid when compared to
base load plants and this means, transmission lines losses are reduced as overall
12 K. S. Sastry Musti
flows are now less. Energy mix has several other advantages as well. It supports
localized IPPs and thus investor friendly. It also agrees well with the circular
economy principles.
However, it should be noted that this is only a simplified illustration to illustrate
the energy mix. In reality, several different costs and technical aspects need to be
considered. Given the intermittency nature of the solar energy, utilities need to
monitor the quality of the power delivered by the solar segment. In fact, regulator
usually sets the technical standards within which the IPPs need to operate.
Fig. 4 Duck curve phenomenon over the years with different levels of PV generation
14 K. S. Sastry Musti
In most developing countries, energy markets are open to private investment through
well-defined market structure, policies, and power-purchase agreements. This natu-
rally results in a number of private investors operating simultaneously and thus
modern smart grids are typically energized by different IPPs with different RETs at
various locations. The power plants owned by IPPs are connected to the grid through
a metered point, or the PCC. Cash flows depend on the energy flows, which will be
measured by the meters at the PCC (Hauwanga & Musti, 2022).
Numerous technical challenges such as possible system faults and power quality
issues are associated with integrating the varying nature of solar PV and wind
resources. System faults need to be cleared by fast acting protection schemes that
can isolate the power plant from the grid to avoid possible damages on either side.
Both PV and wind power plants are known to produce harmonics and thus poor
power quality can render up to 15–20% of their energy useless. To deal with such
difficulties, policy frameworks specify the technical standards within which the IPPs
are expected to operate. Thus, the IPPs are expected to invest into appropriate quality
control infrastructure, real-time monitoring systems, and skilled engineers to meet
the set standards. Revenues for IPPs depend largely on the energy supplied, but
intermittency and seasons play their role in limiting the energy output.
Importantly, it is the responsibility of either local or federal governments to
acquire the land and issue lease-based ownership or land use licenses to the IPPs.
However, bit lots of land either for PV and/or wind can be provided outside urban
areas, thus plants owned by IPPs are far from the urban power grids. Power
transmission lines need to be run from the plant to the urban grid, and somewhere
in between a substation needs to be built, where the PCC is situated. For this, right of
way for the power corridor and also the land for the substation needs to be acquired.
Costs of such procurement and infrastructure development need to be factored into
the revenue estimates and risk assessments. In fact, PCC is the point where the power
from the independent power producer is transferred or sold over to the grid given that
it meets the quality requirements. Hauwanga and Musti (2022) stated that the PCC is
“the point in the electrical system where the ownership changes from the electric
utility to the customer The distances between IPP to the PCC and PCC to the grid
are often ignored in risk assessment.” Another aspect is that usually 8–12% power is
lost in transmission losses. These losses are significant, and in fact increase with
capacity addition through distributed generation. Losses depend on the lengths of the
transmission lines. It is important that the financial value of the losses needs to be
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 15
determined and then allocated to various stakeholders through the avenues provided
by the market design (Hauwanga & Musti, 2022). Further, financial costs involve
several parameters such as market models, cash flow structures, energy flows, and
losses, as the utility wants to absorb the losses in the section from PCC to the grid.
Revenues and other cost parameters are dependent on the distances involved, as the
power losses occur in in both the sections. If the distance between the power plant
and the PCC is more, then power loss in that section will be more (than the power
loss in the section owned by the utility) and naturally the IPP needs to absorb the
same. Thus, IPPs need a lot of information before they think of investing so that
informed decisions can be made (Giones et al., 2019; Hauwanga & Musti, 2022). It
is here, the government and the regulator play a vital role to see that all the required
information is provided for understanding the overall financial implications.
From the above, it can be seen that IPPs do need a lot of system data and
information before making their investment. Trinasolar (2022) clearly indicated
the importance of accurate data and information for various aspects of ESI
management—in developing energy policies, market design, costs and cash-flow
mechanisms, financial incentives, and penalties for various operating scenarios etc.
Otherwise, IPPs can be subjected to significant financial and legal risks. However,
there are other factors that also exist that can contribute to the risk, such as the
location of PCC (Hauwanga & Musti, 2022).
There are other factors as well that can potentially contribute to duck curve phe-
nomenon or the net negative load. Some of them include solar PV installations in
domestic, commercial, and industrial consumer segment. In other words, when
regular consumers turn into prosumers, load seen by the supplier goes down and
thus forcing the utility engineers to adjust the generation levels to suit the operating
conditions (Goddin, 2020; Musti, 2020b). This reduced load is the direct result of a
greater number of consumers turning into prosumers in a bid to cut down their own
energy bills by installing solar panels in their respective premises. It is important to
examine the reasons for increased number of prosumers and the overall possible
circularity in energy usage (Musti, 2020b). First state policies and incentives to the
citizens for using solar energy production, second, the higher energy prices, and
third frequent power shutdowns due to lack of adequate energy from the supply side.
Not just solar panels, even the addition of solar water heaters also results in
significant reduction in energy consumption and thus net load seen by the utility
goes down (Musti & Kapali, 2021; Şerban et al., 2016; Musti, 2020b). While it is not
possible to restrict the citizens in their choices for energy use, the utility certainly
needs to know the overall load, its trend over the day. The load curve is the typical
starting point that describes the overall demand. It is for this reason, energy audits
must be conducted to undertake physical verifications of consumer apparatus,
importantly solar PV panels and solar water heaters at the consumer premises to
16 K. S. Sastry Musti
provide the much-desired estimates for the overall load (Şerban et al., 2016). Such
information needs to be kept in a centralized facility so that different stakeholders
can use it to adjust their individual energy outputs in a transparent with manner
(IEEE Innovation, 2022b)
Most ESIs in the world are decentralized into different, independently operating
verticals—mainly as GenCos, TransCos, and DisCos. This results in resolving many
issues related to operating efficiencies, obscurity of information, and even the details
related to value chain. Value chain in ESI is mainly related to energy flows and cash
flows. Figure 5 illustrates that energy is generated by the GenCos, it is then sent to
TransCos, which then is sent to DisCos for distributing it to the consumers. Now,
consumers pay for the energy consumed to the DisCos, who will in turn pay to the
TransCos and then finally GenCos get paid. In the overall value chain, the energy
flows occur from GenCos to the consumers, whereas the cash flows occur in the
opposite direction. Typically, consumers pay at the end of the calendar month, but
meter readings will be considered during a set of specific dates, let say from 15th to
15th of successive months.
TransCos might get their payments in bulk, may be once in a quarter or
so. Similar arrangements may exist for GenCos to get paid. Issues related to non-
payments and delays can lead to breaks in the value chain for obvious reasons.
However, it should be noted that the technical standards for energy flows and
financial obligations for the cash flows will be set by the regulator. Enforcing the
set procedures in ESI is always a challenge just as in other sectors. This can happen
due to prevailing political, social, or economic conditions. It should be noted that the
value chain system illustrated in the figure is a simple model and in reality, the ESI
structure can be quite complicated. Government has the direct responsibility to set up
a level-playing field so that financial risks are reduced for stakeholders and the
verticals. The job of the regulator is to enforce the set protocols and policies to ensure
the value system operates effectively.
From the above sections, it is clear that advances in smart grids can provide several
opportunities. For instance, MCDM can be used to evaluate risk and energy mix can
be used to follow the load. However, timely switching on/off of the loads and energy
sources is possible only with real-time monitoring and control. Conventional grids
cannot achieve such a monitoring and control. However, by using smart grids, it is
possible to accomplish real-time monitoring and control, and thus load following
feature.
Smart grids support several state-of-the art technological options such as inte-
grating a diverse energy portfolio and consumers using the power networks that
centrally monitored and controlled in real time. Apart from this, smart grids can
potentially result in wide ranging benefits. In an article titled, “3 Real-Life Examples
of the Positive Impact of Smart Grid Data Analysis,” IEEE Innovation (2022a)
states that
The Boston Consulting Group found that an energy retailer was able to boost its gross
margins by more than 20% by creating detailed customer profiles using multiple sources of
data to guide pricing increases, targeting those likely to pay and avoiding those at high risk
of churn.
Florida Power and Light was able to use grid data to monitor the status of their grid and
operations (particularly from their smart meters) to gain $30 million in operational savings.
Norway has reached the epitome of clean energy, with over 96% of electricity produced
from hydropower, and a goal of selling no fossil fuel-powered cars by 2025. The country is
on its way to being the first fully renewable energy-powered nation and is reaping significant
benefits like more efficient energy generation, new jobs in the renewables sector, improved
consumer choice in energy, and reduced carbon footprint.
As of now, different renewable energies are available and each of them having their
own costs, advantages, and disadvantages. Social, economic, and environmental
impacts of renewable energies are always of significant interest to contemporary
researchers. In the modern era, demand response needs to be understood well for
planning the energy mix (Musti, 2020a; Sastry Musti et al., 2020). And proportions
in energy mix invariably depend on merits of different energy resources. Just as any
other example, choosing a renewable energy for a specific purpose also involves
both measurable and nonmeasurable attributes or criteria in the decision-making
process. Naturally, several researchers have applied MCDA methods to renewable
energy selection. This case study considers few of the well-known attributes—
levelized costs of production per megawatt hour, land usage in acres, environmental
friendliness, and capabilities of load following. Realistic values for these parameters
have been chosen from reputed references.
Both the attributes energy production costs and land usage values are measurable.
Costs of energy production and land usage values are obtained from standard data
repositories (Sastry Musti & Van der Merwe, 2022). Then the rest of the two
attributes are nonmeasurable directly. Hence, numerical values on a scale of 1–10
are given to both environmental friendliness and load following capabilities, based
on the known information. Few points should be noted beforehand.
This only a simple, entry level example on selecting a renewable energy resource,
as the emphasis is more on using MS-Excel tool and applying the MCDA tech-
niques. In a real-world setting, there will be several different expenses in energy
systems from generation point to the end use. Costs of energies vary from place to
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 19
Table 3 Input data with high weighting for load following capabilities
Cost Land usage Env. friend. Load following
Solar PV 87 43.5 8 3
Wind 90 70.64 8 3
Coal 110 12.21 1 8
Natural gas 150 12.41 3 10
Nuclear 135 12.71 2 9
place due to local environmental conditions, sages to staff and even cost of con-
struction etc. (Sastry Musti & Van der Merwe, 2022). Values of the input parameters
used for the selection of energy type are shown in Table 1.
With the above data set, all the MCDA methods should be independently
executed and the corresponding output shows that solar PV which has the least
cost ($87) is ranked as the best one by all methods, and there are other reasons as
well including high rating given in Env. Friend. category. Solar PV which has the
weightage (a beneficial criteria) is ranked as the best one by all methods and overall
rankings are shown in Table 2.
Now let us consider that cost is not a prominent attribute, but load following
ability is more important, and that the cost and land usage may not be very critical.
This may be justified in a location where critical, industrial, and commercial loads
exist. To try this option, changes are made in such way that the attribute for the Load
follow is now increased to 0.5 and the rest are reduced, while ensuring the sum of the
weights of all the attributes is one. Since the tool is user-friendly, it is possible to
change the data on the cover sheet and then carryout the computations in all the rests
of the sheets. The changed inputs and the corresponding outputs are shown in
Tables 3 and 4.
20 K. S. Sastry Musti
Table 4 Overall ranking with high weighting for load following capabilities
Rank Weighted sum Weighted product WASPAS TOPSIS
1 Natural gas Natural gas Natural gas Coal
2 Nuclear Nuclear Nuclear Solar PV
3 Coal Coal Coal Nuclear
4 Solar PV Solar PV Solar PV Natural gas
5 Wind Wind Wind Wind
And the corresponding output shows that all the methods identified natural gas
(also known as the gas peaker) as the best, except the TOPSIS which picked the coal
as the best. It also ranked natural gas and wind at the bottom, though weights are in
favor of Env. Friend attribute. As explained earlier, it is the way TOPSIS carries out
the computations based on Euclidian distances that are different from the rest of the
methods, and thus the results will be different from the rest. As explained earlier, this
is an example to demonstrate the distinctive features of different methods and also to
attest the fact that all the methods do not give same results, though same input data
sets are used.
Just as any other financing models, investors would like to study various risks
involved and especially want to understand the prospects for handsome and timely
returns. Since there are several stakeholders with different interests and require-
ments, decision making can be very difficult to ascertain such prospects. Thus, this
problem warrants the application of MCDM. For this, the entire ESI can be divided
into five (5) different verticals—viz., GenCos, TransCos, DisCos, combination of
these three verticals, and then finally the anciallary services. Possibilities for invest-
ment in four verticals are already discussed earlier. Ancillary services in the ESI are
critical in the modern day context as specialized services such as reactive power
injection, voltage control, and energy storage provisions can be offered by indepen-
dent firms. Almost all ESIs encourage private firms that specialize in ancillary
services to cut costs in procuring specialized equipment and to employ skilled
engineers. Now the green investor has options to invest in any of the three verticals
and also in the combination of these three and then also in investing into exiting
ancillary service firms.
Similarly, let us consider four major categories, viz., profits made, current state of
the technology in terms of smart readiness, existing environmental policy, and
current level of solar penetration for evaluating the risk. Higher profits indicate
financial stability and urge to take the loan is lower. Thus, this parameter is set as
nonbeneficial one. In other words, if a vertical is making high profits, then it may not
need the loan in the first place. There may be several reasons for lower profits such as
failures in value chain system and current policies, and these can be possibly
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 21
Table 5 Input data with high weighting for risk evaluation for investments into various verticals
Ben 1/Non Ben 0 0 1 1 0
Weightage 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1
Investment area Profits Smart ready Env Policy Solar part
GenCos 5 10 9 2
TransCos 25 15 6 3
DisCos 55 20 4 5
Combined 65 30 5 6
Ancillary Services 75 60 8 9
Table 6 Overall ranking with high weighting for policy and smart technologies
Rank Weighted sum Weighted product WASPAS Topsis
1 GenCos GenCos GenCos GenCos
2 Ancillary Services TransCos Ancillary Services TransCos
3 TransCos Ancillary Services TransCos DisCos
4 Combined Combined Combined Combined
5 DisCos DisCos DisCos Anciliary Services
changed through mediation and consolations. Higher smart readiness indicates the
higher technological strength, and thus higher prospects for servicing the loan. This
is set as a beneficial parameter, which means higher the value, better prospects in
servicing the loan in a timely manner. Similarly, the environmental policy parameter
is set to a beneficial one. Higher the value means, the current policy supports green
initiative and the market is ready for uptake of green energy. Lastly, the variable
solar part indicates the current level of solar energy penetration. Higher the value
means, the ESI already has a lot of solar energy thus solar segment may have been
saturated. At this point, adding more solar energy does not yield good returns due to
duck curve phenomenon as explained earlier. Thus, this is set as a nonbeneficial
parameter. Now, assume that the ESI has the values as shown in Table 5. Using the
MCDM tool, it is possible to resolve the decision-making problem into a hierarchy
of preference for green investing. Weightages have been considered as explained in
the earlier illustration. Since high green policy is critical for investments, it is given
higher weightage.
After applying the MCDM, the tool gives the following output as shown in
Table 6.
It can be seen that a good financial standing and smart readiness aspects generally
favor green investors. It should be noted that this is a simple example and is not a
comprehensive solution. The aim here in this chapter is to provide a basis and
foundation for using MCDM to various problems in the area of green financing.
22 K. S. Sastry Musti
5 Discussion
Globally and locally several ESI players exist. They include international commit-
tees that monitor climate changes carbon emissions and major greenhouse-gas
contributing nations. Policies of some developed nations on climate change can
also be significant players. International monetary funding organizations, other
lenders, and Banks also have their role in influencing recipient Nations also Anita
the implementation process of climate policies. Technology investors and devel-
opers and other stakeholders also some of the key players. State governments
themselves are key players in their respective energy supply industries. Utilities
and regulator have their own role to play, though utilities are mostly controlled by
the regulator within a well-defined policy framework. Lastly but not the least, the
consumers are also key players as they are the ones who pay for the energy that they
consume. Table 7 summarizes some of the needs, requirements, and challenges of
various actors and stakeholders in any modern day ESI.
The above sections and illustrations show the use of MCDM to resolve several
conflicting and interdependent issues. Due to the given complexity, the above
example and MCDM approaches need to expand appropriately and thus there are
several opportunities for further work to develop new algorithms and risk assess-
ment. Most of the parameters and aspects from above sections, in fact, vary dynam-
ically. Such variations impact energy flows and cash flows in different ways. Further
works should also consider these parameters in a dynamic sense, let us month-wise
or annually etc., and carryout investigations.
6 Conclusion
Green financing is becoming more and more popular in energy sector. This chapter
presented a few key issues in terms of needs, challenges, and risks in ESI. Then
opportunities in terms of using smart grids, determining a suitable energy mix and
need for policies, have been discussed. Applicability of MCDM is demonstrated
using a MS-Excel tool for risk assessment of energy projects for green financing.
Adopting the global green initiative at the national level is now becoming an
imperative to every nation as part of benign fight again the unwanted climate
changes. The chapter clearly points to the need to establish a national level green
energy policy at the national level, use of energy mix, and smart grids for the green
cause. Importantly, a well-defined framework for green energy policy is essential to
ensure sustainable operation of ESI and adequate opportunities to the green
financiers.
Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Sustainable Green Financing in. . . 23
Table 7 Summary of needs and requirements of various actors and stakeholders of ESI
Actors and stakeholders Needs, requirements, and challenges
Agencies monitoring climate International agencies and some developed nations tend to
change, developed nations, and monitor the climate change is very closely and work toward
policy-making organizations reducing greenhouse gases. Such players usually bring pres-
sures on state governments specifically at the top leadership
positions. Such efforts are generally channeled through
international-level climate agreements and meetings
Funding agencies and banks International our cross-border funding agencies to put various
restrictions in their energy financing frameworks as they
themselves are influenced by committees that monitor climate
changes. This means that funding for fossil fuel-based energy
production may not be favored. This intern can result in lesser
availability of baseload energy production in respective ESIs
ESI Technologies Recent technological advances and developments by and large
have resulted in cheaper environmentally friendly renewable
energy technologies. For instance, the levelized costs of solar
and wind energies have been reduced drastically over the
years. However, the random nature and intermittency of such
resources pose significant challenges in utilizing the energy
produced
Investors and developers Investors and developers in energy supply industry do expect
returns on their investments. Investor-friendly energy markets
benign policy frameworks to ensure returns and timely pay-
ments from the consumers or some of the factors aspects that
investors anticipate. Importantly, they expect the ESI to utilize
and operate on energy mix (and not just one form of energy
source)
State and federal governments Both state and federal governments expect funding agencies
and banks to provide loans with low interest rates and longer
durations for repayment. Developing and underdeveloped
nations expect the developed nations to provide them with the
niche technologies required for integrating intermittent
renewable energy sources, at affordable prices
Utilities Utilities would expect policy support to build and develop base
load plants to meet varying load conditions in a safe and
reliable manner. They also expect the regulator to understand
their financial budgetary requirements in managing their own
operations, as capex and opex in ESI can be cost intense
Consumers Consumers expect reliable and cheaper energy supply
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The Development of the Global Green
Finance Market: The Role of Banks
and Non-banking Institutional Investors
1 Introduction
L. Filipava (✉)
Belarusian State University, Minsk, Belarus
e-mail: filippovale@bsu.by
F. Murshudli
Azerbaijan State University of Economics, Baku, Azerbaijan
e-mail: is.mal.merkezi@unec.edu.az
Sustainable Insurance (PSI) Initiative, the Sustainable Insurance Initiative (PRI), and
the Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). The concept of blended finance,
involving the attraction of private sector capital to achieve the SDGs, is becoming
increasingly relevant. This approach can also be used to mobilize capital from small-
and medium-sized investors through the use of digital finance. In order to achieve
this, at the annual World Economic Forum in Davos (2007), the Green Digital
Finance Alliance (GDFA) was launched, which, together with UNEP, implemented
investment attraction mechanisms to finance low-carbon industries.
However, the implementation of long-term green projects in emerging countries
is limited by the insufficient development of appropriate green financial mechanisms
and instruments. At the same time, the transition to a global low-carbon sustainable
economic model in low- and middle-income countries provides for the financing of
USD1.6 trillion annually (WB, 2019). Achieving this would require the banking
sector’s active participation and the attraction of entrepreneurial capital. Therefore,
the purpose of this study is to consider current trends in the GGF market to develop a
financial mechanism based on a green fund establishment with the subsequent
securitization of its assets through the issuance of green bonds and the attraction
of private capital to the projects that meet the principles of the green economy.
This term was recognized by numerous countries at the United Nations Confer-
ence on Environment and Development in 1992 as part of the process of adopting the
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The convention’s purpose
is to implement the concept of global sustainable development by countries. As a
result of globalization and the growth of the TNC’s influence, the primary vector of
The Development of the Global Green Finance Market: The Role of Banks. . . 29
the concept shifts from the national level to the corporate one, as evidenced by the
growing number of private initiatives in the sphere of sustainable development and
green investment.
The world community adopted the 2030 Agenda in 2015 (UN, 2015), which
includes 17 global Sustainable Development Goals. The new SDGs are consistent
with international law, consider national characteristics, opportunities, and priorities,
are comprehensive, and ensure a balance between all three components of sustain-
able development: economic, social, and environmental. Achieving the sustainabil-
ity goals is expected to contribute to the transition to a new economic model—a
green economy model (Grabowska et al., 2022).
Indeed, the transition from a traditional economic growth model to a “green” one
is becoming a worldwide trend. A green economy is a tool for achieving sustainable
development, aiming to increase people’s well-being while reducing environmental
risks (UNEP, 2015b). As already mentioned, the foundations for a green economy
were laid within sustainable development in the late 1980s. The term “green
economy” was first mentioned in ‘Plan for a Green Economy’ (Pearce et al.,
1989), highlighting the need for economic support of the environmental policy. In
subsequent works, researchers touched upon issues such as climate change, ozone
layer depletion, deforestation in tropical regions, etc. (UNDESA, 2012).
Since the mid-2000s, within the framework of implementing the global strategy
for sustainability, new models of the GE have become widespread: low-carbon,
bioeconomy, and blue economy (European Commission, 2018, 2020, 2022).
Although these concepts are often considered identical (since the principle of
environmental orientation can be found in all models), they have specific differ-
ences. The general and characteristic directions of developing modern GE forms are
shown in Table 1.
The low-carbon economy strives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the
atmosphere to stabilize the climate system (Solomon et al., 2007). Low-carbon
development is primarily associated with improving energy efficiency, such as
minimizing traditional hydrocarbons, primarily coal (Flavin, 2008), and using
renewable energy sources. The bio-economy involves transitioning to a new
30 L. Filipava and F. Murshudli
The following instruments have become widespread in the GGF market: green
(sustainable, climatic, and collateralized) bonds, green (eco-) loans, and weather
derivatives. These financial instruments are not fundamentally new from a technical
perspective, but they are distinguished by the environmental component.
Green bonds (GBs) are used to finance projects that meet the criterion of
environmental friendliness [projects in energy saving, energy efficiency, renewable
energy, etc. (UNEP, 2016)]. Most GBs are subject to special labeling requirements,
and the issuer or an independent appraiser can perform the labeling. According to the
International Financing Corporation (IFС) definition, a green bond is a bond that
meets the following criteria: (1) attracted capital must be directed to the green
projects’ implementation, (2) investments must be assessed for compliance with
eco-principles, (3) the funds attracted by the issuer are exclusively targeted, and
(4) information on the funds spending is transparent and should be published
annually (IFC, 2020). The priority areas of the GBs are energy efficiency (38%),
sustainable low-carbon transport (16%), water resources (14%), adaptation to cli-
mate change (6%), and forestry and agriculture (2%). This is because countries
primarily issue GBs to invest in water supply and sanitation. This trend is typical for
developed countries (USA and France).
Within the described terminology, the broadest definition of green or so-called
climate-aligned bonds (CABs) was proposed by the Climate Bonds Initiative (CBI)
to designate financial instruments for low-carbon and climate-resilient infrastructure
development. The World Bank also defines GBs, as implementing a program to
finance environmentally sustainable growth in emerging countries.
34 L. Filipava and F. Murshudli
Green bonds were issued for the first time by the European Investment Bank
(EIB) in 2007, called climate awareness bonds (CABs). The issue had a volume of
USD600 million and received an AAA rating (European Commission, 2016). The
bonds were intended to finance renewable energy projects. In 2008, the IBRD issued
bonds labeled as “green.” The World Bank applied environmental criteria, and an
independent assessment carried out by experts from the University of Oslo to select
appropriate projects. The funds from the placement of GBs in the amount of SEK
2.85 billion were used to finance agricultural, waste processing, and forest manage-
ment projects (WB, 2015).
The need for standardization and labeling of green bonds arose from the neces-
sity to identify their specifics in the financial market. Until recently, the lack of
investor interest in green financial instruments was caused not only by profitability
requirements but also by the lack of recognized standards and an efficient interna-
tional mechanism to control the cash flows.
The initial stage in the GB standardization can be considered the adoption of the
Wind Criteria (or Wind Sector Eligibility Criteria) of the Climate Bonds Standard,
developed by the CBI in 2011. Furthermore, CBI has approved four industry
standards (version 2.0) for wind and solar energy, low-carbon public transport,
and energy-efficient buildings. Version 2.0 also includes a description of the certi-
fication process, requirements for issuers, and the GBs industry standards. The
principles of green bonds were improved simultaneously (CBI, 2018a).
In 2014, the International Capital Market Association (ICMA) released the Green
Bonds Principals (GBPs), which are similar to the CBI Standards but address
broader issues. The GBPs provide guidelines for issuers to disclose information
about the upcoming GB issue, allowing investors and stakeholders to assess the key
characteristics and make strategic investment decisions. The Principles involve:
(1) the target orientation of investments as a result of the GBs placement,
(2) green projects’ selection and evaluation, (3) funds management, (4) reporting
(ICMA, 2021). The certification of securities provides for disclosing information on
the expenditure of emission funds, which is important for two reasons. First, it
guarantees the investor that his funds will be spent on climatic purposes. Secondly,
public authorities have the opportunity to support the GB market. Marking is carried
out based on international rules and procedures in the Green Bond Principles (GBP)
and the Climate Bond Standard (CBS) adopted by international organizations. At the
same time, the European Green Bond Standard (EUGBS) certification is being
developed, which is expected to become mandatory in EU countries.
Green bond ratings are assigned to both individual issues and entire securities
programs. Moody’s international rating agency has developed a methodology for the
GB assessment (GBA) based on the issuer’s compliance with the principles of
targeted use of funds, project management, and reporting. The GBA uses the climate
bonds initiative (CBI) criteria and The International Organization of Securities
Commissions (IOSCO). If a company wants to receive a CBI certificate after the
GB issue, it should apply to CBI accreditation experts. These institutions include
international consulting and audit companies, certification agencies (such as ERM
Certification and Verification Services, Kestrel Verifiers, and TÜV NORD CERT),
The Development of the Global Green Finance Market: The Role of Banks. . . 35
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