Synopsis for the project work

Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data with Meteorological Variables for Sustainable Energy
Planning

Brief introduction

Monitoring and prediction of the climatic phenomenon have developed over the years; as a
result, wide knowledge and information have been gathered that have helped to understand and to
predict it. More importantly, climatic change has a great influence on the lives of people and their
environments. It is influenced by the location latitude, elevation, and proximity to water bodies.
Solar radiation is one of the important parameters to study climate change, environmental pollution,
crop production, food industry, and hydrology. Even for the design of a solar energy conversion
system, it requires precise knowledge of the availability of global solar radiation at the location of
interest. Hence, the total solar radiation potential will be a key factor for designing and predicting
the performance of solar energy equipment.

Solar radiation, as a vital renewable energy source, is heavily influenced by meteorological

factors. Wind speed and direction play a significant role in determining solar radiation patterns,
while temperature and humidity directly impact atmospheric conditions that affect solar energy
generation. Wind speed and wind direction directly affect the availability of solar radiation by
influencing cloud formation, air mass movement, and atmospheric transparency. Higher wind speeds
might lead to increase cloud cover, which can reduce the amount of solar energy reaching earth’s
surface. On the other hand, wind direction can determine the flow of air masses, and subsequently,
the distribution of cloud cover, affecting regional solar energy potential.

Temperature and humidity, as meteorological variables, impact the atmospheric conditions,

and subsequently, the amount of solar radiation absorbed or scattered. Higher temperatures can
enhance the capacity of the atmosphere to hold moisture, potentially leading to increased cloud
formation. Similarly, humidity levels influence cloud formation and play a role in determining the
amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface.

Solar radiation is a key driver of climate change. When the Earth receives more solar energy,
temperatures can rise, contributing to global warming. Conversely, reduced solar radiation can lead
to cooling. Changes in solar activity over time have influenced the Earth's climate, but human
activities, particularly greenhouse gas emissions, are currently the dominant factor behind the
observed climate change. Studying solar radiation helps us better understand natural climate
variability and how human activities interact with it.

Sunburn, immunodepression, photoaging, and photocarcinogenesis, are some of the most

significant adverse effects of solar radiation in humans. Children are population group of special
vulnerability, due to the fact that exposure to the sun has more pronounced biological effects
compared to adults.
Objectives

The following objectives of the study are

 Investigate the relationship between solar radiation and each independent variables.

 Build a multiple regression model to predict solar radiation based on values of meteorological
variables.

 Detect the outliers in a regression model using k – NN approach.

 Evaluate the goodness of fit of the regression model to see how well it represents the solar
radiation data.

Statistical Tools
The statistical tools used in the project are as follows:

 Regression analysis

Statistical software
The software that used for analysis is R.

Reference

1. Jan Kleissl(2013). Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment.

2. Jens Breckling(1989).The Analysis of Directional Time Series : Application to

Wind Speed and Direction, Springer-Verlag , Berlin Heidelberg.

3. Ian L. Dryden and Kanti V. Mardia(2016).Statistical Shape Analysis with Applications in

R,2/e, John Wiley and Sons, United Kingdom.

4. Christophe Ley and Thomas Verdebout (2017). Modern Directional Statistics , CRC
Press, Baco Raton.

5. Viorel Badescu(2008).Modeling Solar Radiation at the Earth’s Surface, Springer

Berlin , Heidelberg.