hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data with

Meteorological Variables for Sustainable Energy
Planning

A PROJECT REPORT
Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award of the
degree of

Master of Science in
Statistics

b
y
Dasharath, V. (P03NKS021)
Kiran Kumar,
Priya
Shashank, K. U.
Surabhi
Varshini Swarpoopa . N

Under the guidance of

Dr. Sadiq Pasha

Department of Statistics
Bangalore University
Bengaluru
2023
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

Department of Statistics
Bangalore University, Bengaluru-560056

Certificate

Certified that this is the bonafide report of the Project Word titled A Statistical
Analysis of Solar Radiation Data with Meteorological Variables for Sustainable Energy
Planning and carried out

Chairperson Project Guide

Date:
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

DECLARATION

I hereby declare that the matter embodied in this project entitled “A Statistical
Analysis of Solar Radiation Data with Meteorological Variables for Sustainable Energy
Planning” submitted to the Department of Statistics, Bangalore University in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the award of Master’s Degree in Statistics, is the
result of my studies and this project has been composed by me under the guidance
and supervision of Dr. Sadiq Pasha, Department of Statistics, Bangalore University,
during 2022-23.
I also declare that this project has not previously formed the basis for the award of any
degree, diploma, associateship, fellowship, etc. of any University or Institution.

Place: Bangalore
Date:
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The success of any venture is greatly attributed to perseverance, inspiration,

and motivation. It would be remiss not to acknowledge the people who supported and
helped us achieve our goals with this report. We are sincerely grateful to our project
guide, Dr. Sadiq Pasha from the Department of Statistics at Bangalore University, for
his constant encouragement and supportive ideas. We also want to extend our
gratitude to the chairperson and Professor Dr. Parmeshwar V. Pandit from the
Department of Statistics for providing us with the opportunity and necessary facilities
to complete our project. Additionally, we want to express our appreciation to our
parents for their continual encouragement and support throughout our educational
journey.

We would also like to acknowledge the help and cooperation from our teacher,
Dr. Suresh. R, Dr. Mallappa, Dr. Kavitha, N., and the non-teaching staff of the
Department of Statistics for their valuable contributions in carrying out this work. The
entire project was a collaborative effort by our dynamic team, and every individual's
contribution was essential to its success.

Lastly, we want to thank everyone who was involved directly or indirectly in the
completion of this project. Your assistance was greatly appreciated, and we could not
have done it without you.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

CONTENTS

Sl.no Page
Number
1. Introduction
2. Data Source and Description
3. Objectives
4. Statistical tools
5. Statistical software
6. Statistical Methodology
7. Data Analysis and Interpretation
8. Summary and Conclusion
9. Limitations and Future Work of the Study
References
Appendix
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hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

1. Introduction
The Sun emits solar radiation, which affects the atmosphere and climate. This
energy is essential for natural processes like wind formation, plant photosynthesis, and
sustaining life on Earth. Solar radiation travels through space in all directions, and when
it reaches the land and oceans, it is either absorbed or reflected. The atmosphere
weakens solar radiation, and the surface returns it to space as long-wave radiation.

Solar radiation is formed through nuclear fusion processes in the Sun's core.
Hydrogen atoms merge to create helium atoms, which release a vast amount of energy
in the form of electromagnetic radiation. This radiation is composed of various
electromagnetic waves, including visible light, ultraviolet rays, X-rays, and infrared
radiation.

The amount of solar radiation that a surface absorbs is determined by the amount
of solar energy that is incident on it and the fraction of that incident radiation that is
absorbed. The flux of solar radiation at any given location is a vector with both a
magnitude and direction, and the angle between the Sun's direction and a surface is the
key parameter that determines how much energy is incident on that surface.

Geometric reasoning plays a significant role in understanding climate. On average,

for Earth, daytime is about 12 hours, and during the day, the angle between a vertical
line and the Sun is about 60 degrees. The average sunlight received during the day at the
top of the atmosphere is half of what a point receives when the Sun is directly overhead,
and the average received during the day and night is a quarter of what is received from
an overhead Sun. The solar radiation at the surface is affected by atmospheric reflection
and absorption of radiation, which is greater when the Sun is closer to the horizon.
These factors determine the seasonal and geographical variations of climate.

Clouds and other atmospheric particles called aerosols are the primary
mechanisms by which the atmosphere alters the receipt of solar radiation by the land
surface. Gaseous absorbers of solar radiation, such as water vapor and ozone, can also
have a significant impact. The total net radiation that heats the land surface includes not
only that of downward thermal emission from the atmosphere but also depends on
clouds and water vapor and is reduced by the upward emission of thermal radiation. The
albedo of land surfaces, especially vegetated components, depends strongly on the
wavelength of the solar radiation.

Solar radiation reaches the Earth's outer atmosphere and passes through, being
affected by atmospheric components and processes:

Scattering
The process where solar radiation is redirected in different directions by
atmospheric particles and gases. This is why the sky appears blue during the day because
shorter-wavelength light is scattered more than longer-wavelength light.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

Absorption
Some solar radiation is absorbed by gases and particles in the atmosphere,
converting the radiation into heat. The Earth's surface absorbs a portion of the solar
radiation as well.

Reflection
Solar radiation can be reflected back into space by clouds, atmospheric particles,
and bright surfaces like snow, water, and ice.

1.1.Types of Solar Radiation Depending on Its Form As It Reaches the Earth.

There are three major types of solar radiation, depending on its form that enters
the surface of the Earth.

1.Direct Solar Radiation

Solar radiation reaches the Earth's surface without completely dispersing through
the atmosphere. The strength of this direct solar radiation also referred to as global solar
radiation, is measured using a pyranometer or Solarimeter on the Earth's surface. It
determines the intensity of solar radiation from the Sun's rays when it falls at a right
angle to a surface.

2.Diffuse Solar Radiation

The sunlight that reaches the Earth's surface after being scattered in the
atmosphere is referred to as diffuse solar radiation or diffuse sky radiation. Regions with
high atmosphere transparency experience lower levels of diffuse solar radiation.
Different instruments like the Solarimeter, Pyrheliometer, and Solarimeter are used to
measure diffuse solar radiation. Global Diffuse Irradiance and Diffuse Horizontal
Irradiance (DHI) are the two components of diffuse solar radiation.

1.2.The different types of solar radiation are categorized based on the types of light.
1.Infrared Rays
This particular light has a longer wavelength compared to visible light, which
means it reflects more than UV and visible light. It has a wavelength of less than 700 and
provides 49.4% of solar energy. Additionally, it can be readily absorbed by water and
carbon dioxide molecules and converted to heat energy.

2.Visible Rays
Visible solar radiation, also known as visible light, refers to the colors of light that
are visible to the human eye.

3.Ultraviolet Rays
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Ultraviolet solar radiation or Ultraviolet Light has shorter wavelengths than

visible light and can be harmful to humans and other living things if exposed for a long
time.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

This can be categorized into three types depending on their wavelength ranges:

1. UV-A can pass through the Earth's surface quickly. It has a wavelength of 320-
400 nanometers (nm). This is also known as backlight, which causes fluorescence
in some objects.
2. UV-B cannot penetrate the atmosphere easily but still reaches the Earth's surface
and is responsible for skin damage and impairment of photosynthesis in many
plants. It has a wavelength of 280-320 nm.
3. UV-C cannot get through the atmosphere since the Earth's Ozone Layer absorbs
it. It has wavelengths ranging between 100 and 280 nm.

1.3.Solar radiation is a vital resource harnessed for various purposes:

 Solar Power Generation: Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels convert sunlight directly
into electricity, offering a sustainable and clean energy source.

 Solar Thermal Energy: Concentrated solar power (CSP) systems utilize mirrors or
lenses to focus sunlight to produce heat for electricity generation.

Understanding solar radiation, its properties, and how it interacts with the Earth's
atmosphere and surface is fundamental in maximizing its utilization for renewable
energy and other applications.
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1.4.Meteorological influences on Solar radiation :

Solar radiation and meteorological variables are intricately connected, as various
meteorological factors significantly influence the amount and characteristics of solar
radiation reaching the Earth's surface. Here's an explanation with reference to key
meteorological variables:

1. Temperature:
 Temperature affects the intensity of solar radiation. Higher temperatures may
cause more scattering and absorption of solar radiation in the atmosphere.
 Temperature also influences air density, affecting the path and dispersion of solar
radiation through the atmosphere.

2. Wind Speed and Direction:

 Wind can affect solar radiation by dispersing or concentrating it based on wind
speed and direction. Wind patterns can alter cloud cover, impacting the amount
of solar radiation received at a particular location.

 Wind direction can affect shading and obstructions for solar panels, impacting
their efficiency.

3. Pressure:
 Atmospheric pressure can affect the density of the atmosphere and,
consequently, the scattering and absorption of solar radiation.
 High-pressure systems often bring clearer skies, allowing for more direct solar
radiation.

4. Humidity:
 Humidity levels influence the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere,
affecting the scattering and absorption of solar radiation.
 High humidity can lead to more diffuse solar radiation due to increased
scattering caused by water vapor and clouds.

It is crucial to comprehend the meteorological variables and their correlation with

solar radiation in order to forecast and evaluate the availability of solar energy in a
particular area. By combining meteorological data with solar modeling and technology,
we can maximize solar power generation, create efficient solar installations, and predict
energy production.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

1.5.Effects of solar radiation :

Solar radiation has both positive and negative effects on human health and daily
life. Here's a breakdown of these effects:

Positive Effects:
1. Vitamin D Synthesis:
 Solar radiation is essential for the synthesis of vitamin D in the skin, a crucial
nutrient that supports bone health, immune system function, and overall well-
being.

2. Improved Mood and Mental Health:

 Exposure to natural sunlight can enhance mood, reduce stress, and alleviate
symptoms of depression and anxiety, promoting mental well-being.

3. Regulated Circadian Rhythm:

 Exposure to natural sunlight helps regulate the body's internal clock, improving
sleep quality and promoting a healthy circadian rhythm.

4. Enhanced Productivity and Performance:

 Ample natural lighting in living and working spaces due to solar radiation can
boost productivity, focus, and performance in daily activities.

5. Solar Energy Generation:

 Solar radiation serves as a clean and renewable source of energy, contributing to
sustainable power generation and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

Negative Effects:

1. Skin Damage and Cancer Risk:

Prolonged or excessive exposure to solar radiation, particularly UV rays, can cause
sunburn, premature aging of the skin, and increase the risk of skin cancers.

2. Eye Damage:
Direct exposure to intense solar radiation can cause damage to the eyes, incuding
conditions like cataracts and age-related macular degeneration(AMD) .

3. Heat-Related Illnesses:
High temperatures resulting from intense solar radiation can lead to heat-related
illnesses such as heat exhaustion and heatstroke, especially during heatwaves.

4. Impact on Indoor Comfort:

Solar radiation can cause indoor spaces to become uncomfortably hot,
necessitating the use of cooling systems and potentially increasing energy consumption.

5. Climate Change and Disruptions:

Accumulation of greenhouse gases due to energy production and consumption
from solar radiation contributes to climate change, leading to environmental and
societal disruptions.

Understanding the balance and potential risks associated with solar radiation is
important for adopting appropriate measures to maximize its benefits while mitigating
potential adverse effects. Protective measures, such as using sunscreen, wearing
protective eyewear, and managing indoor climate, help ensure safe exposure to solar
radiation.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

2. Data source and description

2.1. Data source

It is the secondary data collected from NASA and the address of the website is:
https://www.nasa.gov//

2.2. Data description

The meteorological data consists of air pressure, time, humidity, wind speed, daily
temperature, wind direction and global solar radiation. These data were recorded by a
meteorological station from the Hawai’i Space Exploration Analog and Simulation
weather station. Also known as HI-SEAS. The time period of the data collected is for four
months (September through December, 2016) between Mission IV and Mission V. HI-
SEAS is an environment located on a remote site on the Mauna Loa side of the saddle
area on the Big Island of Hawaii in around 8100 feet above sea level

Solar radiation

Solar radiation is typically measured in units of watts per square meter (W/m²). This unit
represents the amount of solar energy received per unit area. It's a common
measurement in the field of solar energy and meteorology to understand the intensity of
sunlight at a specific location and time. Solar radiation measurements are important for
various applications, including solar panel efficiency calculations, climate studies, and
weather forecasting.

Temperature

Temperature measurement in degrees Fahrenheit (°F) is a scale primarily utilized in the

United States. This scale has its freezing point at 32°F and its boiling point at 212°F under
standard atmospheric conditions. It is commonly employed for weather reporting,
cooking, and everyday temperature referencing. Room temperature, often considered
comfortable, falls within the range of approximately 68-72°F, and the normal human
body temperature is around 98.6°F. To convert between Fahrenheit and Celsius, you can
use the formulas (°F - 32) × 5/9 = °C for Fahrenheit to Celsius conversion and (°C × 9/5) +
32 = °F for Celsius to Fahrenheit conversion. Negative temperatures in Fahrenheit are
colder than their Celsius counterparts due to the scale's offset. While Fahrenheit is
predominant in the U.S., most countries worldwide use the Celsius scale. Having
familiarity with both scales can be advantageous for international travel and scientific
applications.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

Wind Direction

Wind direction is typically measured in degrees clockwise from true north. This
measurement provides a standardized way to express the direction from which the wind
is blowing. Wind direction can also be observed and reported using compass directions,
such as north, northeast, east, and so on. Meteorological stations and weather reports
often include both the compass direction and the wind direction in degrees for clarity
and precision. Measuring wind direction in degrees is particularly important for aviation,
meteorology, and various outdoor activities where knowing the precise direction of the
wind is essential for safety and decision-making.

Humidity

Humidity, the amount of water vapor present in the air, is typically measured as relative
humidity (RH) and expressed as a percentage. There are various instruments and
methods to measure humidity, with one of the most common being the hygrometer. The
relative humidity percentage tells you how close the air is to being saturated with water
vapor. A relative humidity of 100% indicates that the air is holding the maximum amount
of water vapor it can at that temperature, leading to the possibility of precipitation or
condensation

Wind Speed

Wind speed is typically measured in units such as meters per second (m/s), kilometers
per hour (km/h), miles per hour (mph), or knots (nautical miles per hour). It represents
the rate at which air moves horizontally past a specific point, indicating the speed at
which wind is traveling. For example, a wind speed of 10 meters per second means that
the air is moving at 10 meters in one second.

Pressure

Barometric pressure, also known as atmospheric pressure, is commonly measured in

inches of mercury (in Hg) in some countries, particularly the United States. The standard
atmospheric pressure at sea level is approximately 29.92 inches of mercury (inHg), but
this value can vary with weather conditions and altitude. Meteorologists and weather
reports often use inches of mercury as a unit of measurement for barometric pressure,
while other countries and scientific fields may use millibars or Pascal’s as their primary
units for pressure measurement.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

Sample data

Date Time Radiation Temperature Pressure Humidity WindDirection wind Speed

9/29/201
6 23:55:26 1.21 48 30.46 59 177.39 5.62

9/29/201
6 23:50:23 1.21 48 30.46 58 176.78 3.37

9/29/201
6 23:45:26 1.23 48 30.46 57 158.75 3.37

9/29/201
6 23:40:21 1.21 48 30.46 60 137.71 3.37

9/29/201
6 23:35:24 1.17 48 30.46 62 104.95 5.62

9/29/201
6 23:30:24 1.21 48 30.46 64 120.2 5.62

9/29/201
6 23:25:19 1.2 49 30.46 72 112.45 6.75

9/29/201
6 23:20:22 1.24 49 30.46 71 122.97 5.62

9/29/201
6 23:15:22 1.23 49 30.46 80 101.18 4.5

9/29/201
6 23:10:22 1.21 49 30.46 85 141.87 4.5

9/29/201
6 23:05:23 1.23 49 30.47 93 120.55 2.25

9/29/201
6 23:00:25 1.21 49 30.47 98 144.19 3.37

9/29/201
6 22:55:20 1.22 49 30.47 99 139.8 6.75

9/29/201
6 22:50:19 1.21 50 30.47 99 140.92 2.25

9/29/201
6 22:45:31 1.23 50 30.47 99 147.61 5.62
22:40:23 1.22 50 30.47 99 113.78 4.5
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9/29/201
6

9/29/201
6 22:35:19 1.21 50 30.47 99 123.03 10.12

9/29/201
6 22:30:22 1.22 50 30.47 99 173.73 6.75

9/29/201
6 22:25:19 1.22 50 30.47 98 91.43 6.75

9/29/201
6 22:20:22 1.2 50 30.47 98 109.74 6.75

9/29/201
6 22:15:22 1.2 50 30.47 98 143.53 2.25

9/29/201
6 22:10:21 1.2 50 30.47 97 146.76 5.62

9/29/201
6 22:05:20 1.21 50 30.47 97 158.35 4.5
9/29/201
6 22:00:26 1.22 50 30.47 97 166.05 5.62

9/29/201
6 21:55:20 1.22 50 30.47 96 151.82 5.62

9/29/201
6 21:50:32 1.22 50 30.47 96 152.52 6.75

9/29/201
6 21:45:28 1.24 50 30.47 95 127.82 7.87

9/29/201
6 21:40:20 1.23 50 30.47 95 157.58 6.75

9/29/201
6 21:35:21 1.23 50 30.47 95 172.96 7.87
.
.
.
wind
Date Time Radiation Temperature Pressure Humidity WindDirection Speed

12-01-2016 02:25:04 1.17 42 30.42 92 161.05 7.87

12-01-2016 02:20:04 1.2 42 30.42 92 108.37 5.62

12-01-2016 02:15:02 1.18 43 30.42 91 167.47 6.75

02:10:01 1.18 43 30.42 92 164.76 4.5
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12-01-2016

12-01-2016 02:05:02 1.19 43 30.42 95 147.71 7.87

12-01-2016 02:00:02 1.21 43 30.42 98 190.16 12.37

12-01-2016 01:55:02 1.2 43 30.41 100 155.66 12.37

12-01-2016 01:50:03 1.2 43 30.42 100 180.84 10.12

12-01-2016 01:45:01 1.19 43 30.41 101 128.7 12.37

12-01-2016 01:40:02 1.19 43 30.42 101 158.56 13.5

12-01-2016 01:35:02 1.21 44 30.42 101 162.93 9

12-01-2016 01:30:01 1.21 44 30.42 101 154.37 4.5

12-01-2016 01:25:03 1.2 44 30.42 101 149.51 9

12-01-2016 01:20:02 1.21 44 30.42 101 117.07 14.62

12-01-2016 01:15:04 1.21 44 30.42 102 117.49 5.62

12-01-2016 01:10:02 1.21 44 30.42 102 102.57 6.75

12-01-2016 01:05:03 1.2 44 30.42 102 131.49 5.62

12-01-2016 01:00:01 1.21 44 30.42 102 112.72 11.25

12-01-2016 00:55:01 1.21 43 30.42 101 152.17 9

12-01-
2016 00:50:06 1.22 43 30.42 101 163.94 10.12

12-01-2016 00:45:02 1.2 43 30.42 101 150.62 6.75

12-01-2016 00:40:02 1.19 43 30.42 101 178.46 5.62

12-01-2016 00:35:03 1.19 44 30.42 101 148.63 3.37

12-01-2016 00:30:05 1.21 44 30.42 101 101.27 10.12

12-01-2016 00:25:02 1.18 44 30.42 102 121.02 4.5

12-01-2016 00:20:04 1.22 44 30.43 102 145.42 6.75

12-01-2016 00:15:01 1.17 44 30.42 102 117.78 6.75

12-01-2016 00:10:01 1.2 44 30.42 102 145.19 9

12-01-2016 00:05:02 1.23 44 30.42 101 164.19 7.87

12-01-2016 00:00:02 1.2 44 30.43 101 83.59 3.37

hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data
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3. Objectives
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4. Statistical Tools

The statistical tool used in this project are as follows :

 Circular linear Regression analysis.

5. Statistical software
The software that is used for analysis is python.
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

6.Methodology

6.1. Regression For Cylindrical Data

Johnson and Wehrly (1978) proposed three different regression models including
a regression of a linear variable on other linear and circular variables. Herewith, we refer
to the model as the JW circular-linear regression model. Consider the joint density f ( x , θ )
such that
−1
1 ' −1 −1
f (x ,θ)=c exp ⁡{− x ∑ x + λ ' ∑ x +a(θ)' ∑ x } (1)
2

Where c is a constant of integration and a ( θ )' =(a 1 ( θ ) , … , aq ( θ )) is given by

n
a i ( θ ) =∑ pj−1 ∑ ¿ ¿ ,
k−1
i=1 , … , q , (2) x ∈ Rq , θ ¿ is
'
positive definite while uijk and v ijk are constant. Let us partition x=( x'1|x '2 ) and hence λ , ∑
and a (θ) accordingly. The model is constructed from the conditional distribution of
x 1=(x 1 , x2 , .. , x r ) given x 2 and θ , where x 1 is the dependent variable while x 2 and θ are
'

the independent variables. The conditional distribution of f ( x 1|x 2 ,θ ) is the r-dimensional

normal distribution with mean λ 1+∑ 12 ∑ 22 [x 2−( λ2 +a 2 ( θ ) ) ] and co-variance matrix
−1

∑11 +∑12 ∑ 22 ∑21. It can be shown that each component x i of x 1 has a variance not
−1

depending on the conditioning variables and a mean of the form

q
β 0 + ∑ βi x i+ ∑qi=r +1 ∑ pj=1 ∑ nk=1 ¿ ¿ (3)
i=r+ 1
Where β 0 , β i , γ ijk and δ ijk are the coefficients which represent the relationship between
the variables and k is the angular frequency . This model is basically reduced to a
standard method of predicting a linear variable from a mixture of linear and circular
variables.

In the next section, we use a simple form of the model given in (3) with one linear
variable and one circular variable with the frequency k =1 . The model takes the form of

x 1 i=β 0+ β2 x 2i + γ cos θi + δ sin θi +∈i, i=1 , 2 ,… , n (4)

2
∈i N ( 0 , σ ). The estimation of the parameters β 0 , β 2 , γ and δ can be obtained using the
least square estimation method .

6.1.1. Estimation of the model parameters

The method of least squares can be used to estimate the regression

coefficients . Suppose that n> k observations are available , and let y i denote the ith
observed response and x ij denote the ith observation or level of regressor x j . The
data will appear as in the below table. We assume that the error term Ɛ in the
hgtff A Statistical Analysis of Solar Radiation Data

model has E ( Ɛ ) = 0, Var ( Ɛ )=σ 2, and the errors are unvcorrelated.

TABLE 3.1 Data for Multiple Linear Regression

Regressors

Observation, i Response, y x 1 x 2 .. . x 6

1 y1 x 11 x 12 . . . x 1 6
2 y2 x 21 x 22 . . . x 2 6
⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮ ⋮
n yn xn1 xn 2 . . . xn 6

Throughout this chapter we assume that the regressor variables x 1 , x 2 , ⋯ , x 6 are fixed
variables, measured with error. However,
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