Ft+1 = (1 - α) Ft + αA

Exponential Smoothi

WEEK At Ft+1 At-Ft

1 88 88.0
2 44 88.0 44.0 1,936.0 1.0
3 60 83.6 23.6 557.0 0.4
4 56 81.2 25.2 637.1 0.5
5 70 78.7 8.7 76.0 0.1
6 91 77.8 13.2 173.1 0.1
7 54 79.2 25.2 633.0 0.5
8 60 76.6 16.6 277.0 0.3
9 48 75.0 27.0 727.9 0.6
10 35 72.3 37.3 1,389.9 1.1
11 49 68.6 19.6 382.3 0.4
12 44 66.6 22.6 510.7 0.5
13 61 64.3 3.3 11.1 0.1
14 68 64.0 4.0 16.0 0.1
15 82 64.4 17.6 309.6 0.2
16 71 66.2 4.8 23.4 0.1
17 50 66.6 16.6 277.1 0.3
18 65.0 65.0 4,222.7
MAD 19.33 496.07 6.13
MSE 38%
 Ft+1 = (1 - α) Ft + αAt

Exponential Smoothing

0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80

88 88 88 88 88 88 88
88 88 88 88 88 88 88
79.20 74.80 70.4 66.00 61.60 57.20 52.80
75.36 70.36 66.24 63.00 60.64 59.16 58.56
71.49 66.05 62.14 59.50 57.86 56.95 56.51
71.19 67.24 65.29 64.75 65.14 66.08 67.30
75.15 74.37 75.57 77.88 80.66 83.53 86.26
70.92 68.26 66.94 65.94 64.66 62.86 60.45
68.74 65.78 64.17 62.97 61.87 60.86 60.09
64.59 60.45 57.70 55.48 53.55 51.86 50.42
58.67 52.81 48.62 45.24 42.42 40.06 38.08
56.74 51.67 48.77 47.12 46.37 46.32 46.82
54.19 49.37 46.86 45.56 44.95 44.70 44.56
55.55 52.86 52.52 53.28 54.58 56.11 57.71
58.04 57.40 58.71 60.64 62.63 64.43 65.94
62.83 64.78 68.03 71.32 74.25 76.73 78.79
64.47 66.65 69.22 71.16 72.30 72.72 72.56
61.57 61.65 61.53 60.58 58.92 56.82 54.51

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 Alpha

0.90
88
88 4 0.1 4
48.40 36 0.9 36
58.84
56.28
68.63 MAD=At-Ft/n
88.76
57.48
59.75
49.17
36.42
47.74
44.37
59.34
67.13
80.51
71.95
52.20

Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

At Ft+1
 With K=3
WEEK At Ft At-Ft Absolute (At-Ft)^2
1 88
2 44
3 60
4 56 64 (8) 8.0 64.0
5 70 53 17 16.7 277.8
6 91 62 29 29.0 841.0
7 54 72 (18) 18.3 336.1
8 60 72 (12) 11.7 136.1
9 48 68 (20) 20.3 413.4
10 35 54 (19) 19.0 361.0
11 49 48 1 1.3 1.8
12 44 44 - - -
13 61 43 18 18.3 336.1
14 68 51 17 16.7 277.8
15 82 58 24 24.3 592.1
16 71 70 1 0.7 0.4
17 50 74 (24) 23.7 560.1
18 68 (68) 67.7
208.0 4,197.8
14.9 299.84
MAD MSE

With K=2
WEEK At Ft At-Ft Absolute (At-Ft)^2
1 88
2 44
3 60 66 (6) 6.0 36.0
4 56 52 4 4.0 16.0
5 70 58 12 12.0 144.0
6 91 63 28 28.0 784.0
7 54 80.5 (27) 26.5 702.3
8 60 72.5 (13) 12.5 156.3
9 48 57 (9) 9.0 81.0
10 35 54 (19) 19.0 361.0
11 49 41.5 8 7.5 56.3
12 44 42 2 2.0 4.0
13 61 46.5 15 14.5 210.3
 14 68 52.5 16 15.5 240.3
15 82 64.5 18 17.5 306.3
16 71 75 (4) 4.0 16.0
17 50 76.5 (27) 26.5 702.3
18 60.5 (61) 60.5
204.5 3,815.8
13.6 254.38
MAD MSE

With K=4
WEEK At Ft At-Ft Absolute (At-Ft)^2
1 88
2 44
3 60
4 56
5 70 62 8 8.0 64.0
6 91 57.5 34 33.5 1,122.3
7 54 69.25 (15) 15.3 232.6
8 60 67.75 (8) 7.8 60.1
9 48 68.75 (21) 20.8 430.6
10 35 63.25 (28) 28.3 798.1
11 49 49.25 (0) 0.3 0.1
12 44 48 (4) 4.0 16.0
13 61 44 17 17.0 289.0
14 68 47.25 21 20.8 430.6
15 82 55.5 27 26.5 702.3
16 71 63.75 7 7.3 52.6
17 50 70.5 (21) 20.5 420.3
18 67.75 (68) 67.8
209.8 4,618.2
16.1 355.25
MAD MSE
Absolute % Error Absolute

(0.14) 0.14
0.24 0.24
0.32 0.32
(0.34) 0.34
(0.19) 0.19
(0.42) 0.42
(0.54) 0.54
Moving Average
0.03 0.03 100

- - 90
0.30 0.30 80
0.25 0.25 70
0.30 0.30 60
0.01 0.01
50
(0.47) 0.47
40
30

25% 20

MAPE 10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

At Ft

Absolute % Error Absolute

(0.10) 0.100
0.07 0.071
0.17 0.171
0.31 0.308
(0.49) 0.491
(0.21) 0.208
(0.19) 0.188
(0.54) 0.543
0.15 0.153
0.05 0.045
0.24 0.238
 0.23 0.228
0.21 0.213
(0.06) 0.056
(0.53) 0.530

24%
MAPE

Absolute % Error Absolute

0.11 0.114
0.37 0.368
(0.28) 0.282
(0.13) 0.129
(0.43) 0.432
(0.81) 0.807
(0.01) 0.005
(0.09) 0.091
0.28 0.279
0.31 0.305
0.32 0.323
0.10 0.102
(0.41) 0.410

28%
MAPE
 Moving Average

6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

At Ft
 Date Price
45.51
46.1
44.72
39.39
40.29
40.51
48.42
51.68
53.12
50.05
50.29
51.03
57.32
55.47
57.41
54.89
52.61
49.36
51.65
52.78
49.96
56.93
58.28
61.41

FT+1
FT+2
FT+5
 Et Tt
w 0.8
46.1 0.59 v 0.7
45.114 -0.5132
40.43216 -3.431248
39.6321824 -1.58935872
40.0165647 -0.20773998
46.697765 4.61451816
51.6064566 4.82043962
53.7813792 2.96857772
51.3899914 -0.78339818
50.3533186 -0.96069038
50.7025257 -0.04376221
55.9877527 3.68653026
56.3108566 1.33213181
57.4565977 1.20165831
55.6436512 -0.90856505
53.0350172 -2.09861329
49.6752808 -2.9813995
50.6587763 -0.20597302
52.3145606 1.09725717
50.6503636 -0.83576081
55.5069206 3.14886165
58.3551564 2.93842362
61.386716 3.00361879

64.3903348
67.3939536
76.4048099
E2=Y2 T2=Y2–Y 1

E3 =wY3 +(1–w)(E2 +T2) T3 = v(E3 – E2) + (1 – v)T2

Et =wYt +(1–w)(Et–1 +Tt–1) Tt =v(Et –Et–1)+(1–v)Tt–1

Ft+1 = Et + 1*Tt
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.98599888
R Square 0.97219379
Adjusted R S 0.96871801
Standard Erro 286.840189
Observations 10

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 23013410 23013410 279.705481 1.65316E-07
Residual 8 658218.352 82277.2939
Total 9 23671628.4

CoefficientsStandard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 7997.53333 195.949153 40.8143297 1.42964E-10 7545.67378 8449.39289
X Variable 1 528.157576 31.5800654 16.7243978 1.65316E-07 455.333814 600.981337
Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
7545.67378 8449.39289
455.333814 600.981337
 Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005

Slope
y Intercept

RSQUARE

Y= 7997.5+528.15*X
13807.15
 Tuition
8,800
9,206
9,588
10,076
10,444
10,818
11,380
12,014
16,000
12,955
13,743 14,000
f(x) = 528.1
12,000 R² = 0.9721

528.157576
10,000
7997.53333 9
8,800
8,000
0.98599888
6,000

4,000

2,000

-
0 2
 Chart Title
16,000

14,000 13,743
f(x) = 528.157575757576 x + 7997.53333333333 12,955
12,000 R² = 0.972193786570461 12,014
11,380
10,818
10,444
10,000 10,076
9,588
9,206
8,800
8,000

6,000

4,000

2,000

-
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
 13,743
5

10 12