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28 NOVEMBRO 2017

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Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Alexandre LEMILLE
@AlexLemille
The Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Content

1. Economic Strategies
2. Concept & Principles
3. The Economic Potential
4. Jobs, Activities and the Social Dimension
Economic Strategies
Economic Strategies
Wrongly designed system
TAKE MAKE DISPOSE

WASTE WASTE WASTE

ENERGY ENERGY Res.
LABOUR LABOUR ENERGY
$ $ $
Economic Strategies
Functions of throughput

Responsibility
$$
Transfer & Producer Purchaser Authority Taxpayer
Externalities $ $ $

Ownership

Traffic congestion | Air Pollution | Health Impact | Noise | Death/Injuries | Multiple Waste | etc…
EXTERNALITIES?
Economic Strategies
80% thrown while huge needs
Concept & Principles
A Circular Economy
Preserve stock quality & manage flows

GDP (flow) How we measure

Source: Giarini & Stahel, 1989

our economy today
! Welfare / Wealth / Knowledge How it should be
Level is ignored measured!
(stock)

Outflow is ignored

!
A Circular Economy
Stock is everywhere
A Circular Economy
A resource-efficient economy

Reuse of vast amount of material

=
Foundation of Economic Growth
Restorative by design & intention
Using renewable energy
Away from chemicals
Eradicating waste
Rebuilding natural capital
 Durables: Technical Nutrients
Design-to-fit: optimised systems
Leased Accessed
Limited
Unlimited $

 No More Waste $

 Away from Recycling

 Labour is Valued Returned
$
USERS Shared
$

Biosphere
$ $
Consumables: Biological Nutrients
Safely back into the biosphere

$
 Away from hazardous chemicals $
 Nutrients are Beneficial
 Rebuilding natural capital

CONSUMERS
$

$ $
Biosphere
 By 2030:
+3M EU Jobs
-520,000 Unempl.

By 2050:

Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation/WRAP/WEF

$4.5tn WWD

Depending on
countries:
From -40% to
-70% less CO2

Rebuilding of
Capital:
In Priority: Natural
A Circular Economy
Decoupling is the Imperative

C.E. Business Models Leading to new value chains:

+  Less resource supply risks
New capabilities  More customer value creation
 More attractive cost structures
+

Source: The UN Environment, Accenture

New technologies
A Circular Economy
New Business Models

Source: Sitra
A Circular Economy
6 Business Strategies
A Circular Economy
Recycling is only the last resort

Reducing materials to mashed-up fragments

Down-cycling
Secondary material stream for a linear economy
Does not value materials
Does not drive material enhancement
Uses too much energy
A good alternative solution today
Not a solution that copes with waste volumes
A Circular Economy
Advances across the Globe

Source: Sitra
The Economic Potential
Economic Potential of Circularity
Huge material savings (€630bn/y (E.U.))

Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation

Economic Potential of Circularity
Market Trends
Economic Potential of Circularity
Towards Optimization of Value
 Economic Potential of Circularity
Benefits according to “Growth Within”
Current
development
scenario

Circular scenario

Source: Growth Within, SystemIQ

EU-27, Indexed (2012 = 100)
Economic Potential of Circularity
Next Wave of Investment Themes
Investments up to 20251

Cross-cutting
opportunity

Source: The EMF, SystemIQ

The Case of Finland
Opportunities Identified

Source: McKinsey, Gaia Consulting

The Case of Finland
The Case of Finland
Examples: Policy Measures
The Case of Finland
Takeaways & Expectations
Global Unique Roadmap
Government Vision: World Leader in Circular Economy
Added Value Potential: 3bn Euros for the Economy
Additional Jobs: 75,000 (Club of Rome)

Source: Sitra
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Product Sold for Reuse & Remanufacture

Source: Green Alliance, Sitra

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
National job creation

Valued Extracted Tax Maintenance

ɛ ReMarketing
Recycle

Remanufacture
RePurpose
Repair
ReUse
ReDistribute
Disassembly

CO2

Portugal Portugal or RoW

Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Winners: jobs & climate

Decoupling Renewable Case Energy-efficiency Material- All Three

Strategies: efficiency Combined
Up to 70%
Emission
Less CO2 -50% Around -30% -3% to -10% -66% to -69%
Reduction
+ + +

Source: Club of Rome

+75,000 (FL);
Emissions +15,000 (SW+FL);
+15,000 (FL);
+20,000 (SW);
+50,000 (SW+FL);
+100,000 (NL);
+100,000 (SW);
Additional Jobs +50,000 (NL); +200,000 (NL);
+100,000 (NL); +200,000 (SP);
+100,000 (FR+SP) +400,000 (SP);

+ + +
+200,000 (FR+SP) +300,000 (FR);
+500,000 (FR);

Trade Balance +0.3% to +0.7% 0% to +0.4% +1% to +2% +1.5% to +3%

Effects of GDP of GDP of GDP of GDP
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Stock & Flows of Energies & Resources

Source: A. Lemille, adapted from the “Butterfly Diagram” of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation
BIOSPHERE HUMANSPHERE TECHNOSPHERE
Farming,
Collection

Biosphere Recycle
Regeneration
Biochemical
Feedstock
Refurbish/remanufacture

Share
Biogas Reuse /redistribute
Cascades
Maintain/Prolong

Extraction of
Biochemical Feedstock
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Manpower is enabled

Humans assisting, Germany Hand-repaired, Sweden

Robots could not keep up with Prolonging life via repairs
Mercedes S-Class requires too VAT drop: from 25% to 12%
many customisations
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
OCV: Optimising Circular Value
Measuring our 10 Priority Oucomes:
OBRIGADO | THANK YOU

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