NMIMS GLOBAL ACCESS

SCHOOL FOR CONTINUING EDUCATION (NGA-SCE)

COURSE: DECISION SCIENCE
INTERNAL ASSIGNMENT APPLICABLE FOR DECEMBER 2022 EXAMINATION
Answer [1].
Content: -
➢ Introduction of Probability
➢ Types of Probability
➢ Probability Calculation
➢ Probability Tree Diagram
➢ Explain about Conditional Probability
➢ Solve numerical mentioned in the question
Probability means possibility. It is a branch of mathematics that deals with the occurrence of
a random event. The value is expressed from zero to one. Probability has been introduced in
Maths to predict how likely events are to happen. The meaning of probability is basically the
extent to which something is likely to happen. This is the basic probability theory, which is
also used in the probability distribution where you will learn the possibility of outcomes for a
random experiment. To find the probability of a single event to occur, first, we should know
the total number of possible outcomes.
Types of Probability:
There can be different perspectives or types of probabilities based on the nature of the
outcome or the approach followed while finding the probability of an event happening. The
four types of probabilities are

1. Classical Probability: Classical probability, often referred to as the "priori" or

"theoretical probability", states that in an experiment where there are B equally likely
outcomes, and event X has exactly A of these outcomes, then the probability of X is
A/B, or P(X) = A/B. For example, when a fair die is rolled, there are six possible
outcomes that are equally likely. That means, there is a 1/6 probability of rolling each
number on the die.
2. Empirical Probability: The empirical probability or the experimental perspective
evaluates probability through thought experiments. For example, if a weighted die is
rolled, such that we don't know which side has the weight, then we can get an idea for
the probability of each outcome by rolling the die number of times and calculating the
proportion of times the die gives that outcome and thus find the probability of that
outcome.
3. Subjective Probability: Subjective probability considers an individual's own belief
of an event occurring. For example, the probability of a particular team winning a
football match on a fan's opinion is more dependent upon their own belief and feeling
and not on a formal mathematical calculation.
4. Axiomatic Probability: In axiomatic probability, a set of rules or axioms by
Kolmogorov are applied to all the types. The chances of occurrence or non-
occurrence of any event can be quantified by the applications of these axioms, given
as,

• The smallest possible probability is zero, and the largest is one.

• An event that is certain has a probability equal to one.
• Any two mutually exclusive events cannot occur simultaneously, while the union
of events says only one of them can occur.

Probability Calculation: The probability of an event can be calculated by probability

formula by simply dividing the favourable number of outcomes by the total number of
possible outcomes. The value of the probability of an event to happen can lie between 0 and 1
because the favourable number of outcomes can never cross the total number of outcomes.
 The probability formula defines the likelihood of the happening of an event. It is the ratio of
favourable outcomes to the total favourable outcomes. The probability formula can be
expressed as,
Probability Formula
P(A)= Number of Favourable outcome of A / Total number of possible outcome

Probability Tree Diagram: A tree diagram in probability is a visual representation that

helps in finding the possible outcomes or the probability of any event occurring or not
occurring. The tree diagram for the toss of a coin given below helps in understanding the
possible outcomes when a coin is tossed and thus in finding the probability of getting a head
or tail when a coin is tossed. The tree diagram helps to organize and visualize the different
possible outcomes. Branches and ends of the tree are two main positions. Probability of each
branch is written on the branch, whereas the ends are containing the final outcome. Tree
diagrams are used to figure out when to multiply and when to add.
You can see below a tree diagram for the coin:
Outcome

Branch of Probability

Head
Coin
Tail
Conditional probability: It is known as the possibility of an event or outcome happening,
based on the existence of a previous event or outcome. It is calculated by multiplying the
probability of the preceding event by the renewed probability of the succeeding, or
conditional, event.
Conditional probabilities are contingent on a previous result or event occurring. A
conditional probability would look at such events in relationship with one another.
Conditional probability is thus the likelihood of an event or outcome occurring based on the
occurrence of some other event or prior outcome.

Two events are said to be independent if one event occurring does not affect the probability
that the other event will occur. However, if one event occurring or not does, in fact, affect
the probability that the other event will occur, the two events are said to be dependent. If
events are independent, then the probability of some event B is not contingent on what
happens with event A. A conditional probability, therefore, relates to those events that are
dependent on one another.

Conditional Probability Formula

P(B|A) = P (A and B) / P(A)
Or:

P(B|A) = P(A∩B) / P(A)

Where,
P = Probability
A = Event A
B = Event B

According to this case study the records indicate that when teams win the championship, they
win the first game of the series 70% of the time. When they lose the series, they win the first
game 25% of the time. As per the given information, Lets draw a Probability Tree Diagram,

70% of win
60% of win the Series
of 1st match 30% of lose
the Series
1st Match
25% of win
40% of lose the Season
1st match 75% of lose
the Season

Summary: It is based on the existing scenario; the series of these events, i.e., The
Indian Premier League’s final season, features their preferred group, Garuda.
According to experienced, i.e., Raj Kaul, Garuda’s possibility to win is 60% based on
his analysis of the current circumstance. When groups win 70% of the time, they win
the series opener in the championship, Records from the previous program.
After losing 25% of the time in the series, they take the opening game. The opening suites
finished, and their team is lost or defeated. Therefore, the probability that it will win their
series
Refer to page no:101(4.2), 105(4.3), 106(Figure-4.2), 112(4.4).
Answer [2].
Content: -
➢ Introduction to Simple Linear Regression
➢ Explain Equation of Linear Regression
➢ Solve the numerical mentioned in the question

Simple linear regression is a statistical and machine learning model that estimates the linear
relationship between a quantitative explanatory x variable and quantitative response
variable y. There is also another type of linear regression called multiple linear
regression which involves using multiple explanatory variables to predict a response variable,
but we will be focusing on the former. Simple linear regression is a statistical method you can
use to understand the relationship between two variables, x and y.
One variable, x, is known as the predictor variable.
The other variable, y, is known as the response variable.
A simple linear regression line has the form:

y= b0 + b1*x
• b1 = slope of line
• b0 = intercept of line
• x = explanatory variable
• y = response variable
Linear regression is known to be the most basic and commonly used predictive analysis. In this
concept, one variable is considered to be an explanatory variable, and the other variable is
considered to be a dependent variable. For example, a modeller might want to relate the weights
of individuals to their heights using the concept of linear regression.
It is very important and used for easy analysis of the dependency of two variables. One variable
will be considered to be an explanatory variable, while others will be considered to be a
dependent variable. Linear regression is a linear method for modelling the relationship between
the independent variables and dependent variables. The linearity of the learned relationship
makes the interpretation very easy. Linear regression models have long been used by people as
statisticians, computer scientists, etc. who tackle quantitative problems.

1. Simple Linear Regression

• One is the dependent variable
• One is the independent variable

2. Multiple Linear Regression

• One is the dependent variable
• Two or more independent variables
3. Logistic Regression
• One is the dependent variable
• Two or more independent variable
4. Ordinal Regression
• One is the dependent variable
• One or more independent variable
5. Multinomial Regression
• One is the dependent variable
• One or more independent variable
6. Discriminant Analysis
• One is the dependent variable
• One or more independent variable
Linear regression strives to show the relationship between two variables by applying a linear
equation to observed data. One variable is supposed to be an independent variable, and the
other is to be a dependent variable. For example, the weight of the person is linearly related
to his height. Hence this shows a linear relationship between the height and weight of the
person. As the height is increased, the weight of the person also gets increased.
It is not necessary that here one variable is dependent on others, or one causes the other, but
there is some critical relationship between the two variables. In such cases, we use a scatter
plot to imply the strength of the relationship between the variables. If there is no relation or
linking between the variables, the scatter plot does not indicate any increasing or decreasing
pattern. For such cases, the linear regression design is not beneficial to the given data.
Linear Regression Formula

Quality
Customer Ratings
Satisfaction given by
score (y) Customer
(x)
xy x2

5 5 25 25
5 5 25 25
5 4 20 16
5 4 20 16
 5 5 25 25
5 5 25 25
5 3 15 9
5 5 25 25
4 4 16 16
4 4 16 16
4 4 16 16
4 4 16 16
4 3 12 9
4 3 12 9
4 4 16 16
4 2 8 4
3 3 9 9
3 3 9 9
3 3 9 9
3 2 6 4
2 2 4 4
2 2 4 4
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1 3 3 9
1 1 1 1
Total= 93 Total=86
Total=340 Total=320

We have, ∑x= 86
∑y=93
∑x2 =320
∑xy= 340
Now, SSxy= ∑xy-∑x*∑y/n
=340-86*93/27
=340-296.222
SSxy = 118
SSxx=∑x2-(∑x)2/n
=320-(86)2/27
 = 320-7396/27
=320-273.926
SSxx=46.074
Now, b1= SSxy/SSxx
b1= 118/46.074
Hence, b1=2.56

b0=∑y/n-b*∑x/n
b0=93/27-2.56*86/27
=3.444-8.514
Hence, b0= 4.710
y= b0 + b1*x
Hence, the least squares equation of the regression line is

y=4.71+2.56x

The slope of line, b1 =2.56, means that for every unit increase of x (Quality Ratings given
by Customer), y (Customer Satisfaction score) is predicted to increase by 2.56.

Summary: Linear regression is common term used in the field of statistics. Statistics is
one science that involves the collection, organization and interpretation of data that is more
frequently associated in conducting surveys, studies, researches and experiments. Simple
linear regression is one statistical approach that involves modelling of relationships between
two variables, denoted by X and Y. this type of approach focuses on the conditional
probability distribution of y in the presence of variable X. as the first type of regression
analysis being thoroughly studied and analysed, simple linear regression is found to be
extensively useful in various practical applications and methodologies. Simple linear
regression functions by assuming that the variables x and y have a linear relationship within
the given set of data.
Refer to page no: 275(7.3), 277(7.4).
 Answer [3] A.

Content:

➢ Brief about Relative Frequency

➢ Solve the numerical mentioned in the question

The number of times an event occurs is called a frequency. Relative frequency is an

experimental one, but not a theoretical one. Since it is an experimental one, it is possible to
obtain different relative frequencies when we repeat the experiments. To calculate the
frequency, we need

• Frequency count for the total population

• Frequency count for a subgroup of the population
It is necessary to know the disparity between the theoretical probability of an event and the
observed relative frequency of the event in test trials. The theoretical probability is a number
which is calculated when we have sufficient information about the test. If each probable
outcome in the sample space is equally likely, then we can consider the number of outcomes
of a happening and the number of outcomes in the sample space to calculate the theoretical
probability.
The relative frequency is dependent on the series of outcomes resulted in while doing
statistical analysis. This frequency can be varied every time we repeat the experiment. The
more tests we do during an experiment, the observed relative frequency of an event will get
closer to the theoretical probability of the event.
❖ How to Find a Relative Frequency

• Finding the relative frequency is equal to the frequency of an event divided by the
population. It thus requires first finding the frequency and the population.
• The frequency and the population can be based on two different things. They could be
based on either a sample or based on known possible outcomes.
• For example, asking 100 people who enter a store whether they plan to buy milk or
not is a sample. The population of this sample is therefore 100.
• Alternatively, the frequency can be based on theoretical outcomes. An example of this
is Punnet squares in genetics.
• This relative frequency is always expressed as a probability. Recall that a probability
of 0 means and event is impossible and 1 means the event is certain.

❖ The Relative Frequency based on the following Data in the question,

Total Relative
Sr. No State Name District Name MSMEs Frequency
WEST
1 TRIPURA TRIPURA 2915 0.438279958
SOUTH
2 TRIPURA TRIPURA 586 0.088107052

3 TRIPURA DHALAI 439 0.066005112

NORTH
4 TRIPURA TRIPURA 854 0.128401744

5 TRIPURA KHOWAI 514 0.077281612

6 TRIPURA UNAKOTI 447 0.067207939

7 TRIPURA SEPAHIJALA 383 0.057585326

8 TRIPURA GOMATI 513 0.077131258

=6651 1

• The most common way to visualize a relative frequency distribution is to create

a relative frequency histogram, which displays the individual data values along the x-
axis of a graph and uses bars to represent the relative frequencies of each class along
the y-axis.
 • Relative Frequency Graph as per above equation, are as follows

Relative Frequency Graph

0.5

0.45

0.4

0.35

0.3

0.25

0.2

0.15

0.1

0.05

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Relative Frequency District Name

❖ The x-axis displays the Name of the District and the y-axis displays the relative frequency
of that.

Summary: Relative Frequency Graphs are a common method to visually illustrate

relationships in the data. The purpose of a graph is to present data that are too numerous
or complicated to be described adequately in the text and in less space. Do not, however,
use graphs for small amounts of data that could be conveyed succinctly in a sentence.
Likewise, do not reiterate the data in the text since it defeats the purpose of using a graph.
A line graph is similar to the scattergram except that the X values represent a continuous
variable, such as time, temperature, or pressure. It plots a series of related values that
depict a change in Y as a function of X. Line graphs usually are designed with the
dependent variable on the Y-axis and the independent variable on the horizontal X-axis.
The x-axis displays the Name of the District and the y-axis displays the relative

Refer to page no: 27(2.2.2)

Answer [3] B.
Content: -

➢ Explain about Bar Graph

➢ Draw Bar Graph as per the question
➢ Brief about Median
➢ Solve the question and specify values above Median

A bar graph is a graphical representation of information. It uses bars that extend to different
heights to depict value.
Bar graphs can be created with vertical bars, horizontal bars, grouped bars (multiple bars that
compare values in a category), or stacked bars (bars containing multiple types of
information).
❖ The purpose of a bar graph is to convey relational information quickly in a visual manner.
The bars display the value for a particular category of data.
❖ The vertical axis on the left or right side of the bar graph is called the y-axis. The
horizontal axis at the bottom of a bar graph is called the x-axis.
❖ The height or length of the bars represents the value of the data. The value corresponds to
levels on the y-axis.
❖ The Top 2 District shown in the Bar Graph, are as follows:

Sr. No Relative Frequency District Name

WEST
1 0.438279958 TRIPURA
NORTH
2 0.128401744 TRIPURA

Relative Frequency

0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25 West Tripura
0.2
0.15
0.1 North Tripura
0.05
0
1 2

❖ Median: Median is defined as the middle value in a given set of numbers or data. In
Mathematics, there are three different measures, which are used to find the average value
for a given set of numbers. They are mean, median and mode. These three measures are
called the measures of central tendency. The average value of the given data is given by
mean. The middle value of the given data is defined by a median. The repeated value of
the given data is defined by mode.
❖ The median is often compared with other descriptive statistics such as the mean
(average), mode, and standard deviation.
❖ The median is the middle number in a sorted list of numbers and can be more descriptive
of that data set than the average.
❖ The median is sometimes used as opposed to the mean when there are outliers in the
sequence that might skew the average of the values.
❖ If there is an odd number of numbers, the median value is the number that is in the
middle, with the same number of numbers below and above.
The formula to calculate the median of the data set is given as follows.
 Number of Micro, Small and Medium
State Name District Name Enterprises
ANDHRA
PRADESH SRIKAKULAM 10895
ANDHRA
PRADESH KURNOOL 15362
ANDHRA
PRADESH ANANTHAPUR 21193
ANDHRA
PRADESH KRISHNA 23231
ANDHRA
PRADESH GUNTUR 25479
ANDHRA
PRADESH EAST GODAVARI 26546
ANDHRA
PRADESH CHITOOR 27670 (Median)
ANDHRA
PRADESH VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
ANDHRA
PRADESH VIZIANAGARAM 30186
ANDHRA
PRADESH WEST GODAVARI 33541
ANDHRA
PRADESH Y.S. R 37500
ANDHRA
PRADESH PRAKASAM 45171
ANDHRA
PRADESH SPSR NELLORE 54059

Median= x(n+1)/2
=7.
The list of the districts above the median value are as follows:

Number of Micro, Small and Medium

State Name District Name Enterprises
ANDHRA
PRADESH VISAKHAPATNAM 29070
ANDHRA
PRADESH VIZIANAGARAM 30186
ANDHRA
PRADESH WEST GODAVARI 33541
ANDHRA
PRADESH Y.S.R 37500
ANDHRA
PRADESH PRAKASAM 45171
ANDHRA
PRADESH SPSR NELLORE 54059
 Number of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises

VISAKHAPATNAM VIZIANAGARAM WEST GODAVARI Y.S.R PRAKASAM SPSR NELLORE

❖ Summary: A frequency distribution graph is used to show the frequency of the outcomes
in a particular sample. For frequency distribution graphs, the table of values made by
placing the outcomes in one column and the number of times they appear (i.e., frequency)
in the other column. This table is known as the frequency distribution graph from which
the cumulative frequency graph or ogive can be plotted.
❖ The median represents the middle value in a dataset. The median is important because it
gives us an idea of where the centre value is located in a dataset. The median tends to be
more useful to calculate than the mean when a distribution is skewed and/or has outliers.

Refer to page no: 36(2.4.2), 53(3.2.2)

THANK
YOU !!!!