CHAPTER 14 : PROBABILIY

3. Two events A and B are such that P(A) = 1 , P(B) = 1 and P(A U B) = 1 .
1. In a woman single badminton match, the first player who wins two out of three 7 5 3
sets wins the match. The probability of a particular player winning a set is 0.7 Find P(B│A’ ). [5]
if she has won the previous set. The probability of the player winning a set is
0.4 if she has lost the previous set. P(A’ ∩ B) = P(A U B) – P(A) = 1 – 1 = 4
3 7 21
(a) Find the probability that the player wins the match given that she has lost 4
P(B  A' )
the first set. [2] P(B│A’ ) = = 21 = 2
P( A' ) 6 9
(b) If the probability that the player wins the match is 0.64, find the probability 7
that she wins the first set. [6]
Alternative [for P(A’ ∩ B)]
P(L1 W2 W3 ) P(L1 ) x (0.4) x (0.7)
(a) P(Win | L1) = = = 0.28 P(A ∩ B) = P(A U B) – P(A) – P(B) = 1 – 1 – 1 = 1
P(L1 ) P(L1 ) 3 7 5 105
(b) Let the P(W1) = p P(A’ ∩ B) = P(B) – P(A ∩ B) = 1 – 1 = 4
5 105 21
P(W1W2) = p x 0.7 = 0.7p P(W1L2W3) = p x 0.3 x 0.4 = 0.12p
P(L1W2W3) = (1 – p) x 0.4 x 0.7 = 0.28(1 – p)
P(Win) = P(W1W2) + P(W1L2W3) + P(L1W2W3) 4. The frequency distribution of blood types of 100 residents in a village is
2 given below.
Blood type A B AB O
0.64 = 0.7p + 0.12p + 0.28(1 – p)  p=
3 Frequency 20 18 4 58
Four residents are chosen at random. Find the probability that
2. A box contains 3 blue balls, 4 red balls and 5 green balls. Six balls are taken (a) all four residents are of different blood types, [3]
out at random from the box without replacement. Calculate the probability that (b) at least one of the four residents is of blood type AB, given that all of them
(a) at least one ball is green, [3] are not of blood type A. [3]
(b) exactly four are red balls, given that at least one ball is green. [4] 20 18 4 58 20
C1x18C1x 4 C1x 58C1
2(a) Probability = . . . .(4!) or 100
= 0.021299
2(a) n(≥ 1G) = 12C6 – 7C6 or 5
C1.7C5 + 5C2.7C4 + 5C3.7C3 + 5C4.7C2 + 5C1.7C1 100 99 98 97 C4
7 12
C6 C6  7 C6 131
P(≥ 1G) = 1 – or =
12
C6 12
C6 132 (b) X – all 4 are not of blood type A Y – at least one is of blood type AB
80 80
n(4R 1G1B U 4R 2G) C4 C 4  76 C 4
(b) P(4R│≥ 1G) =
P(4R 1G1B U 4R 2G)
or P(X) = 100
= 0.40334 , P(X ∩ Y) = 100
= 0.07615
P( 1G ) n( 1G) C4 C4
P(Y  X ) 0.07615
4
C 4 5 C13C1  4 C 4 5 C2 P(Y│X) = = = 0.1888
P( X ) 0.40334
C612 4
C 4 5 C13C1  4 C 4 5 C2
= or 12
or Alternative
131 C 6  7 C6
132 P(Y  X ) 76
C4 80
C 4  76 C 4
(b) P(Y│X) = =1– 80
or 80
4  3  2  1  5  3  6!  4  3  2  1  5  4  6! P( X ) C4 C4
12 11 10 9 8 7 4! 12 11 10 9 8 7 4!2! = 25 4
131 917 C1. C3  C2 . C2  C3 . C1  C4 .76 C0
76 4 76 4 76 4
or 80
= 0.1888
132 C4

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5. A student goes to school by bus, taxi or motorcycle. The probability that he (c) P(only one) = P(X ∩ Y’ ) + P(X’ ∩ Y) or 1 – P(X’ ∩ Y’) – P(X ∩ Y)
travels by motorcycle is 0.44 and he is equally likely to take a bus or a taxi.
The probability that he is late for school if he goes by bus, taxi or motorcycle = 1 – 17 – 3 = 9 or 0.32143
56 8 28
is 1 , 1 or 1 respectively. Calculate the probability that
5 6 10 Alternative (c)
(a) he is late for school on a randomly chosen school day, [2]
(c) P(only one) = P(X ∩ Y’ ) + P(X’ ∩ Y) or [P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y)] + [P(X) – P(X ∩ Y)]
(b) he goes to school by bus if he is late for school, [3]
(c) he is not late for school if he goes to school by bus or motorcycle. [4] = 4 + 1 – 2 x 3 = 9 or 0.32143
7 2 8 28
0.56 0.56 11
(a) P(L) = P(ML) + P(BL) + P(TL) = 0.44( 1 )+( )( 1 ) + ( )( 1 ) =
10 2 5 2 6 75 7. Two events, A and B, are such that P(A) = 0.2, P(B) = 0.4 and P(A U B) = 0.52.
1
P(BL ) (0.28)( 5 ) 21 (a) Find P(A' ∩ B' ). [2]
(b) P(B|L) = = =
P(L ) 11 55
75 (b) Determine whether the events A' and B' are
(i) mutually exclusive, [1]
P(L'  (B  M )) 0.28( 4 )  0.44( 9 ) 31 (ii) independent. [3]
(c) P(L’ | (B U M)) = = 5 10 =
P(B  M ) 0.28  0.44 36
(a) P(A' ∩ B' ) = P(A U B)' = 1 – 0.52 = 0.48
Alternative (c)
Alternative (a)
P(L  (B  M )) 0.28( 51 )  0.44( 10
1)
31
(c) P(L’ | (B U M)) = 1 – =1– = (a)
P(B  M ) 0.28  0.44 36 A B
0.08 0.12 0.32
P(A' ∩ B' ) = 0.48
0.48
6. Two events X and Y are such that P(X) = 4 , P(Y) = 1 and P(X|Y) = 3 .
7 2 4
Find the probability that
(a) both events occur, [2] (b) (i) Since P(A' ∩ B' ) ≠ 0  A' and B' are not mutually exclusive

(b) both events do not occur, [3] (ii) P(A' ) x P(B' ) = (1 – 0.2)(1 – 0.4) = 0.48

(c) only one of the events occurs. [3] Since P(A' ∩ B' ) = P(A' ) x P(B' )  A' and B' are independent

(a) P(X ∩ Y) = P(X) x P(X|Y) = 1 x 3 = 3 or 0.375 Alternative (ii) – (1)

2 4 8 P( A' B' ) 0.48
(ii) P(A' |B' ) = = = 0.8
P(B' ) 1  0.4
(b) P(X’ ∩ Y’) = 1 – P(X U Y) or P(X U Y)’ or 1 – [P(X) + P(Y) – P(X ∩ Y)] Since P(A' ) = 0.8 = P(A' |B' )  A' and B' are independent

=1–(4+1–3 ) = 17 or 0.30357 Alternative (ii) – (2)

7 2 8 56
P(B'  A' ) 0.48
Alternative (b) (ii) P(B' |A' ) = = = 0.6
P( A' ) 1  0.2
(b) P(X’ ∩ Y’) = P(X’) + P(Y’) – P(X’ U Y’) = 3 + 1 – 5 = 17 or 0.30357 Since P(B' ) = 0.6 = P(B' |A' )  A' and B' are independent
7 2 8 56

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8. Two events, M and W, are such that P(M) = 0.3, P(W |M) = 0.5 and 9. Three thousand students in a college are categorized according to their weight
P(W |M’ ) = 0.25. and family income. The results obtained are shown in the contingency table below.
Underweight Normal weight Overweight
(a) Find Low income 800 200 200
(i) P(M ∩ W ) [1] Medium income 400 400 200
(ii) P(M’ ∩ W ) [1] High income 100 300 400

(iii) P(W) [2] (a) Find the probability that a student who is selected at random is
(iv) P(M U W) [2] (i) from a low income family, [2]
(b) State a reason why the events M and W are (ii) underweight and from a low income family. [2]
(i) not mutually exclusive, [1] Hence, show that the events “a student is underweight” and “a student is from
a low income family” are neither independent nor mutually exclusive. [4]
(ii) dependent. [1]
(b) Find the probability that three students selected at random, one from each
category of income, are
(a) (i) P(M ∩ W ) = P(M ) x P(W |M) = 0.3 x 0.5 = 0.15
(i) from the same category of weight, [3]
(ii) P(M’ ∩ W ) = P(M’ ) x P(W |M’) = 0.7 x 0.25 = 0.175
(ii) underweight, given that the students are from the same category of weight. [4]
(iii) P(W) = P(M ∩ W ) + P(M’ ∩ W ) = 0.15 + 0.175 = 0.325 1200
(a) (i) P(A) = P(low income) = = 0.4
(iv) P(M U W) = P(M ) + P(M’ ∩ W ) = 0.3 + 0.175 = 0.475 3000
800 4
(ii) P(B ∩ A) = P(underweight & low income) = =
Alternative (iv) 3000 15
(iv) P(M U W) = P(M ) + P(W) – P(M ∩ W ) = 0.3 + 0.325 – 0.15 = 0.475 2 1300 13
P(A) x P(B) = x =
5 3000 75
(b) (i) Cause P(M ∩ W ) = 0.15 ( ≠ 0) or  P(B ∩ A) ≠ P(A) x P(B) and P(B ∩ A) ≠ 0
Cause P(M ) + P(W) = 0.625 [ ≠ P(M U W )] or Cause P(W |M) ≠ 0  A and B are neither independent nor mutually exclusive
(ii) Cause P(W |M) ≠ P(W |M’ ) or Cause P(M ) x P(W) = 0.0975 [ ≠ P(M ∩ W )]

(b) (i) X – all 3 students are underweight, one from each category of income
Y – all 3 students are same category, one from each category of income
800 x 400 x100 200 x 400 x 300 200 x 200 x 400 3
P(Y) = + + =
1200 x1000 x1200 1200 x1000 x1200 1200 x1000 x1200 40
1
800 x 400 x100 1 30 = 4
(ii) P(X ∩ Y) = =  P(X│Y) =
1200 x1000 x1200 30 3 9
40

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10. A box contains 8 red balls, 7 blue balls and 5 green balls. Three balls are
successively taken out at random without replacement. Calculate the probability that 8
(a) (i) P(W) = = 0.4
(a) the flrst ball is red and the second ball is blue, [2] 20
(b) all balls are of the same colour, [3] 13
(ii) P(16) = = 0.65
20
(c) all balls are of the same colour, given that at least one ball is red. [4]
853 8 13 5
8 7 18 14 (iii) P(W U 16) = or + – = 0.8
(a) P(R1B2) = x x = 20 20 20 20
20 19 18 95
8
(b) P(same colour) = P(3R) + P(3B) + P(3G) C1 x 12C2 8 12 11 44
(b) (i) P(1W, 2R) = 20
or . . (3) = or 0.46316
8 7 5 C3 20 19 18 95
8(7)(6)  7(6)(5)  5(4)(3) C3  C3  C3 101
= or = 13
20(19)(18) 20
C3 1140 C2 x 7 C1 13 12 7 91
(ii) P(216, 132) = 20
or . . (3) = or 0.47895
C3 20 19 18 190
P(same colour   1R ) P(3R )
(c) P(same colour│≥ 1R) = = (iii) P(1W and 216) = P(W16, R16, R32) + P(W32, 2R16)
P( 1R ) 1 P(no R )
8
8(7)(6) C3 5
C1 x 8C1 x 4 C1 3
C1 x 8 C2 5 8 4 3 8 7
20(19)(18)
20
C3 8
C3 7 = 20
+ 20
or . . (3!) + . . (3)
= or or = C3 C3 20 19 18 20 19 18
20 12
1
12(11)(10) 12
C3 C3  C3 115
20(19)(18) 1 20 61
C3 = or 0.21404
285
44 91 61 83
(iv) P(1W or 216) = + – = or 0.72807
11. A box contains 20 thumb drives of two colours: red and white; two capacities: 95 190 285 114
16GB and 32GB. There are eight red and five white 16GB thumb drives, four 61
red and three white 32GB thumb drives. The thumb drives cannot be (v) P(1W │216) = 285 = 122 or 0.44689
distinguished except for their colours and capacities. 91 273
190
(a) A thumb drive is selected at random from the box. Find the probability that it is
(i) a white thumb drive, [1]
(ii) a 16GB thumb drive, [1]
(iii) a white thumb drive or a 16GB thumb drive. [2]
(b) Three thumb drives are selected at random from the box. Find the probability that
(i) one white thumb drive is selected, [2]
(ii) two 16GB thumb drives are selected, [2]
(iii) one white thumb drive and two 16GB thumb drives are selected, [3]
(iv) one white thumb drive or two 16GB thumb drives are selected, [2]
(v) one white thumb drive is selected, given that two 16GB thumb drives
are selected. [2]

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