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ABSTRACT
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has weakened the overall Global as well as the Indian
economy. The hotel industry suffered heavily, experiencing a heavy decline in its stock prices
within a period of four months of the first confirmed COVID-19 case in India. The objective
of the research is to study the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns of Indian hotel
companies using an event study methodology. For the analysis, stocks of 45 hotel companies
listed on BSE-SENSEX and NIFTY have been studied. Results indicate significant positive
cumulative abnormal returns before the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic and negative after
the outbreak. The findings obtained could be applied to provide information and prepare the
companies for similar epidemics, in future.
Keywords: Coronavirus (COVID-19), Hotel Stocks, India, Event Study
Introduction
Coronavirus (COVID-19) disease is a respiratory disorder caused by a novel
coronavirus 2(SARS-CoV-2). It initiated in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China
in mid-November 2019. On 4th January 2020, World Health Organisation
(WHO) notified that a cluster of pneumonia cases had been reported in Wuhan,
Hubei Province. Following which, on 5th January 2020, WHO published the
first disease outbreak news in the global media (WHO (2020)). Forty-one
confirmed COVID-19 positive patients in China had been admitted to the
hospitals in early January 2020 (Huang et al., 2020). In late January and early
February 2020, the confirmed cases in China grew by several thousand per
day (Callaway et al. 2020). Even though the disease spread rapidly in China’s
Wuhan district, it was at first instance ignored to a great extent by political
leaders in different areas of the world (Harris et al. 2020).
Review of Literature
Chen et al. (2007) analyse the effect of the SARS outbreak on hotel stocks
performance of Taiwanese listed companies. Using an event study
methodology, the authors conclude that the returns of Taiwanese hotel stocks
before and after the SARS outbreak showed substantial negative cumulative
mean abnormal returns, suggesting a major negative effect of SARS outbreak
on the results of the hotel stocks. The study uses market models and different
ARCH models to obtain a further in-depth analysis of the SARS epidemic on
the performance of a stock. The study would have been more useful if it had
included a longer event window in the analysis. Borde et al. (1999) assess the
effect of dividend declarations on stock price movements in the hospitality
industry using event study methodology. Announcement of the dividend was
taken as an event in the study. The study concludes that market participants
reacted positively to the news, and the significantly positive market reaction
was observed.
Goker and Karaca (2020) analyse the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the stock
returns of Borsa Istanbul. They studied 26 sectors in BIST using an event study.
The paper found negative cumulative abnormal returns in most of the sectors.
Even though abnormal returns rates vary in different event windows, the highest
negative returns are found in Sports, Tourism and Transportation sectors.
Liu et al. (2020) examine the short-time period response of Chinese stock markets
to the COVID-19 pandemic using an event study. The results show a significant
decline in the stock markets, along with the negative cumulative abnormal
returns among all the examined windows. The study also assessed the impact of
COVID-19 among different industry index and found lodging, transportation,
and catering experienced negative CAR throughout the event window.
Chowdhury and Abedin (2020) analyse the impact of COVID-19 outbreak
on the stock market in the US; they applied GARCH, VAR and event study
method to measure the impact of COVID-19. The study concludes that the US
stock market reacted negatively towards confirmed and death cases due to
COVID-19.
Awadhi et al. (2020) explore the impact of COVID-19 virus on Chinese stock
market returns using panel data regression analysis. The study reported
noteworthy adverse effects on stock returns across all the companies due to
growing confirmed cases and deaths caused by COVID-19.
106 Rebuilding Tourism and Hospitality Sectors: COVID-19 Crisis, Policy Solutions and the Way Forward
Gossling et al. (2020) assess the effect of COVID-19 crises on the tourism
Industry and also compares them to earlier crises. They conclude that early
evidence of its impact on cruises, air travel, and accommodations have
found to be upsetting. Due to high travel restrictions, initial predictions from
UNWTO for 2020 suggest that international entrances may fall by 20% to 30%
in comparison to 2019. NHO Reiseliv (2020) studies the effect of COVID-19
crises on Norwegian tourism using longitudinal survey data and found that the
tourism industry was the first hit by Coronavirus and by 5th March 2020, 41%
registered cancellations by member businesses counting hotels, campsites, car
rental among others. 78% of tourism companies have laid off their employees,
and 65% lack money to pay their bills. Mckinsey and Company (2020) have
found 42 million to 54 million net jobs suspectable to reductions in hours,
temporary or permanent layoffs. The study further reported 13.4 million jobs
being affected in the restaurant industry, among others. The report concludes
that states with a large tourism industry could be hit worst due to the crisis.
Kim and lee (2005) address the effect of the SARS epidemic on Korea’s hotel
industry, examine the principle of crisis management adopted by the industry
and the consequences for hotel managers. They did a Case study analysis of 6
Korean five-star hotels and found that impact of SARS on the hotel industry
is very harmful. Regarding the hotels, the recommended action plan is to hold
special meetings to prepare and develop plans. The study concludes that a
sound crisis management system and implementation action plans should be
kept ready to act.
Hall et al. (2020) did a comprehensive overview of pandemics to contextualise
the COVID-19 outbreak and its effect on tourism, industry and consumer
response. The study report that there will be uneven changes to tourism as some
destinations will reconsider the nature of this industry and will focus on local
and sustainable forms of tourism with the least institutional and government
interventions. In contrast, many destinations and governments may continue
with a focus on business-as-usual in tourism. Baert et al. (2020) focussed on the
effects on job results and expectations of the COVID-19 crisis. Using a survey
methodology, it examined the job motivation of Belgian workers. Due to the
COVID-19 crisis they found a considerable fear of negative career impacts.
In vulnerable groups such as migrants, the findings also point to greater fear
of negative impact. The previous studies analysing the impact of COVID-19
on stock returns have been conducted and found adverse impact in different
countries such as China, US but none of the studies have been conducted for
Indian hotel industry. So, this work focusses on impact of COVID-19 on hotel
stock returns in India using event study methodology.
Methodology
A event study methodology (ESM) has been applied to study the impact of
COVID-19 on Indian hotel stock performance. ESM is used extensively by
researchers to assess the impact of an economic event or any announcement on
the stock performance of the firm (Chen et al., 2007; Goker and Karaca, 2020;
Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Returns of Hotel Industry... 107
Liu et al., 2020). The study begins with estimating what would have been the
hotel stock returns if the COVID-19 event had not appeared. In the ESM hotel
stock price movements arising due to any particular event are separated from
market movements. The price movements credited to any particular event like
COVID-19 is called abnormal return (AR). Abnormal return is computed by
subtracting expected return/normal return from actual return. We expect ARs
to be positive in case of good news and in case of bad news ARs are expected to
turn negative. Positive ARs indicate that the market believes it will increase the
firm value and negative ARs indicate that market believes event will decrease
the value of firm.
In the study the event date is taken, when first confirmed case was reported in
India, i.e., 30th January 2020, which is taken as t=0. 220 trading days have been
used in the estimation period, beginning from 2nd February 2019 to 1st January
2020 and an event window of [-t1, t2], where, -t1, refers to trading days before the
occurrence of an event and t2 are trading days after the occurrence of an event.
Five event period windows are created (-20,0), (0,20), (0,40), (0,60), (0,80) with
20 incrementing trading days in each window to study the longer impact of
COVID-19 pandemic on Indian hotel stock performance.
To measure the impact of the event, cumulative mean abnormal returns
(CAR) are computed for all event windows of sampled 45 firms included in
the analysis who are all facing the same event, here event is COVID-19. To
measure the significance of CARs, t-statistic is computed.
Measuring Normal Returns
To calculate hotel stocks ARs, first we estimate hotel stocks expected returns
(ER). Applying market model, we regress the respective hotel stock returns
against its market index returns in this study. The description of the model is:
Mean market model:
Rk,t = αk + βk Rm,t + ek,t (Eq. 1)
Where,
Rk,t = ln(Pk,t/Pk,t–1) X100 (Eq. 2)
Where,
Pk,t = Closing Price for stock k on day t
Rm,t = Mean average returns of all firms listed in the market index BSE SENSEX
and NIFTY
ek,t = Random error in the model and
ak, and βk are the parameters of regression to be estimated in the model. ak is
the intercept that measures the outperformance of k stock, which is adjusted
by market risk. βk is the slope measures the relation of returns of k stocks with
benchmark index Rm,t.
Measuring Abnormal Returns
All data related to hotel stock prices and market Index prices were collected
from the Yahoo Finance. For analysis 45 hotel stocks listed on BSE Sensex and
108 Rebuilding Tourism and Hospitality Sectors: COVID-19 Crisis, Policy Solutions and the Way Forward
NIFTY are studied. 220 trading days are analysed for the estimation period,
from 2nd February 2019 to 1st January 2020 and [– t1, t2] event window: – t1 are
trading days before the occurrence of the event and t2 are trading days after
the occurrence of the event on 30th January 2020 when the first COVID-19
confirmed case was reported in India.
Using the parameters calculated from the market model Eq. (1) we compute
the ER for all hotel stocks during the event window t = [– t1, t2]
ERk,t = αˆ k + βk R m ,t (Eq. 3)
The coefficients, here, αˆ k and βk are the true estimated parameters attained in
Eq. (1) using market model regression analysis.
Then, AR over the event window t = [– t1, t2] are calculated
ARk,t = Rk,t – ERk,t (Eq. 4)
ARk,t = abnormal return of hotel stocks k on day t.
The descriptive statistics are provided in the Table 2.
Table 2 Descriptive Statistics of AR over event window t = [– t1, t2]
Name of Company Mean Median Std Dev
EIH Ltd -0.336 -0.462 3.276
Indian Hotels Co Ltd -0.288 -0.503 3.276
Apollo Sindoori Hotels Ltd -0.128 0.003 4.133
Asian Hotels (E) Ltd 0.005 0.302 4.542
Asian Hotels (N) Ltd -0.299 -0.029 3.779
Asian Hotels (W) Ltd -0.584 -0.015 3.847
EIH associated hotels Ltd 0.086 -0.576 4.444
India Tourism Development Corp Ltd -0.270 -0.759 4.477
Kamat Hotels Ltd 0.128 0.021 4.843
Oriental Hotels Ltd -0.307 -0.608 4.164
Royal Orchid Hotels Ltd 0.155 -0.367 4.818
Sayaji Hotels Ltd -0.127 -0.020 2.749
Taj GVK hotels Ltd 0.196 -0.270 4.400
The Byke Hospitality Ltd 0.145 -0.200 4.721
Advani Hotels Ltd 0.011 0.065 3.732
Aruna Hotels Ltd -0.105 -0.026 3.466
Benares Hotels Ltd -0.050 0.019 2.940
Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Returns of Hotel Industry... 109
and
s 2k ∑ t =1 (e k ,t − u k )2 / (T − 1)
T
= (Eq. 7)
where,
s2k = Variance of residuals for stock k obtained from above market model.
T = Total count days taken for the estimation window period.
Rm,t = Market return of day t in the event period.
R m = Average market return over the estimation window period.
Rm,i = Market return during day in the estimation window period.
ek,t = Residual as provided in Eq. (1), and
uk = Average residual during the estimation period.
Next, we compute the standardized CAR for event window t = [– t1, t2] by
adding the SARs i.e. the addition of between t1 and t2, which is also adjusted
for the total number of days (d) within the event window period:
1
∑
t2
CARk = t = − t1
SAR t (Eq. 8)
d
The expected value of CAR should be zero, if there are no abnormal returns.
With the help of CARs, we analyse the behaviour of stock return over a long
event window that can encompass the longer time period of COVID-19
pandemic.
After the calculation of standardized abnormal returns, we test that deviation
from normal returns is due to coincidence or not. To determine the significance
level of CARs, the is computed in the event period window for n hotel stocks
as below:
1
∑
n
t-statistic = i =1
CAR i (Eq. 9)
n
If the value of is significantly different from zero, we can say, that COVID-19
caused abnormal returns.
Hence, our hypothesis is framed as follows:
H0. The outbreak of COVID-19 had no significant impact on Indian hotel
companies stock prices.
Impact of Covid-19 on Stock Returns of Hotel Industry... 111
It is clear from Table 3, that, over the event period window (0, 20) i.e. 20-
day period post the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic in India CARs turned
negative and found statistically significant at 10% level of significance. But,
as we increased the event window to 40-day period i.e. (0, 40) event window,
negative CARs got intensified and were found to be statistically significant
at 1% level, respectively. Further, as we increased the event window period
to 60-day period i.e. (0, 60) event window, again, negative CARs were found
significant at 1% level. These results confirmed that COVID-19 pandemic has
a significant negative impact on the hotel industry.
However, as we further extended the event window to 80-day period i.e. (0, 80),
CARs were negative but not found statistically different from zero. The results
showed that the strongest impact of COVID-19 outbreak was experienced in
the event window period (0, 40) and (0, 60). As the period increased further,
the impact became statistically insignificant. The results conclude that impact
of such an event is temporary over stock price movements.
The results of the study confirmed that a deadly event like the outbreak of
COVID-19 in India damaged the hotel industry. The findings confirm that
that hotel stock prices were affected by the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic
and the stocks would react to such pandemics in the future. The results of
the study also showed that the hotel business is very vulnerable towards a
pandemic and a new pandemic could also potentially depress the stock
market in future. The possible reasons could be lack of tourists – international
112 Rebuilding Tourism and Hospitality Sectors: COVID-19 Crisis, Policy Solutions and the Way Forward
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