Reliability Design Based on Dynamic

Factorial Experimenta1 MOdel*

Kai Yang 0 Wayne State University 0 Detroit
Jianan Xue 0 Wayne State University Detroit

Key Words: Reliability design, fractional factorial experiment, degradation, tolerance design

SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS fractional factorial experimental model, and establish the
This paper discusses how to apply the fractional factorial method for parameter design and tolerance design based on
experiment method to degradation testing and reliability fractional factorial experiments.
design. The static fractional factorial experimental model is
extended to dynarmc fractional factorial experimental model. Notations:
In data analysis, we suggest using degradation measure and S: Aproduct;
safety margin function Z(t) as the response variable. Z(t) is MI: A failure mode of product S; i=1,2, ...n
similar to the signal-noise-ratio defined by Taguchi but has a y,: Failure indicator variable corresponding to MI, yI may be
clear relationship with reliability measure. Using the the function of time t;
fractional factorial experimental models, we give a method for Y: (y1,y2,...yn)the failure indicator vector;
factorial parameter tolerance design from a product reliability x,: Product design parameter or environmental parameter;
requirement. An application example is given. i=1,2,. ..,w;
X: Design parameter vector. X=(x1,x2,...,x,);
w: Number of the design parameters;
1. INTRODUCTION w1: Number of the linear effect design parameters;
Reliability theory and technology are undergoing redirection E(t): Random variable corresponding to pure error in
and breakthrough. The current reliability technology, which experimental models;
puts the emphasis on reliability evaluation and safety analysis, (y(t), ER+}: Random process;
fails to provide strong support to product design and cLy(t): Mean function of random process {y(t), tER+};
manufacturing[l-6]. To satisfy the needs of concurrent D;: The critical value of y,;
engineering practice and a highly competitive world market, o*,,(t): Variance function of random process { y(t), tER+};
reliability technology must emphasize on product design and cpd(t): parameter degradation capability function;
development in low cost and short period. To produce highly Z(t): Safety margin function;
reliable products, the main efforts should be put on product ozx: variance of x,, i=1,2,. ..,n;
design and manufacturing, because product reliability is 2
o m: Variance of IxJ;
mainly determined by its design and manufacturing. m2,: Variance corresponding to the main effect of x,;
The current reliability design approach is based on life m2,,: Variance corresponding to the interaction effect of x,
testing data, failure rate allocation, and system logical and x,.
structure. For the systems of which the catastrophic failures K,,(t): Interaction variance coefficient, the definition of K,, is
are the major consideration in reliability analysis, this kind of in section IV.
reliability design method may work well. For most consumer f: Continuous real function;
products, however, this kind of reliability design method may SS: Sum-of-squares;
not satisfy the design requirements. In designing consumer T: Product design life.
products, engineers usually need to connect product reliability
to design parameters and their tolerances. Therefore, it is Nomenclature:
important to develop the methodology of reliability design Design parameters: The physical parameters of products
based on design parameters and tolerances. which can be controlled in design and manufacturing process.
A number of papers and books in the literature discuss how Failure indicator parameter: The parameter which can
to apply fractional factorial experimental methods to represent the statue of the failure process. When this
reliability design [7-121. This paper will extend the static parameter pass over a pre-determined value, the failure will
fractional factorial experimental model to a dynamic happen.

This research is supported by NSF, Grant No. DMI-9500126

*
0-7803-3783-2/97/$5.000 1997 IEEE
320 1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium
Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 Failure critical value: A predetermined value which can be @ ( z i ~ )2)R*(T)'/" i=1,2, ...,n (7)
used to distinguish the failure state and normal state. That is:
Normal distribution random process: Random process z;(T) 2 &(R*(T)I'~) ,i=1,2,...,n (8)
{y(t), teR+} is a normal distribution random process if at any The reliability requirement for product S can be expressed in
time t, the random variable y(t) follows normal distribution. terms of the safety margin function:
Zs(T) 2 <D-'(R*(T)''") (9)
The major advantage of using the safety margin function to
2. RELMILITYMODELING BASED ON FAILURE describe reliability is that it can be estimated from
INDICATOR PARAMETERS degradation data, thus, wle do not have to run life testing to
Suppose we have a product S with m failure modes, denoted get sufficient number of failures.
by M1,M2,...,Mm. For every failure mode, there are one or
several failure indicator parameters which can quantitatively
represent the failures. If any of the failure indicator 3. DYNAMIC EXPERIMENTAL MODEL AND
parameters are out of the tolerance, the failure will occur. Let PARAMETER DESIGN DRIVEN BY RELIABILITY
yl, y2,..., yn denote the failure indicator parameters of product The current method of reliability design is to allocate the
S , and the normal scope of parameter y, is denoted by Q, product reliability requirement to the reliability requirements
i=1,2,...,n. yleRl, i=1,2,..., n S is in normal state. Assume of every failure modes. The product inherent reliability,
that the parameters are statistically independent, and the however, is mainly determined by its design parameters and
parameter yl(t). i=1,2,...,n is a random function of time. Then tolerances. In this section, we consider how to use fractional
the product reliability is factorial experiments to determine design parameters'

w=n n

i=l
Pr{ YI(t)ERl) (1)
nominal value settings.
From the existing method of fractional factorial
experiments, we have the jfollowing two models:
From this model, product reliability is determined by the Main and interaction effect model:
failure indicator parameter degradation process. Assume that W

all the parameter degradation processes are normal random

processes, yl(t) can be described by a pair of functions
y y o + c qixi +
i=l Ki,j<w
C
qijxixj+ E (10)

(pl(t), o,(t)), i=1,2,...,n. Let Ri =[al, bi], i=1,2 ,..., n, we have Sum-of-square decomposition model:
W

ss,=c ssi+
i=l
c ssij
Ki,jlw
+ SSE (11)
Then, the problem of reliability becomes the problem of The experimental mod.els (Equations (10) and (1 1)) are
controlling the mean degradation function b(t) and variance static experimental models. They describe the functional
degradation function o;(t), i=1,2, ...,n. To integrate these two relationship between factorial parameters and response values.
degradation functions into one degradation measure function, If we can conduct experiments over time, we can observe the
we extend the concept of process capability into the degradation paths of the response variable. Then we can
parameter degradation process capability. The capability describe the relationship between factorial parameters and the
function of a parameter degradation process is defined by degradation paths of the response variable. If we conduct
experiments at time interval [0, &I, and observed the response
(3)
values at time series tl,t2,...,&, we can apply the model
In most situations, failure indicator parameter has only one (Eq.(lO) and (11)) to every time point. Then we have the
side tolerance limit, this tolerance limit is the failure critical following series of linear-and-interaction effect models and
value of the parameter. Then the capability function Cpd(t) sum-of-square decomposition models:
W
become the safety margin function:
y(tk)=yO(tk)+c qi(tk)%+ qij(tk)xixj+ &(fk)>
(4) i=l Ki,j<w
k=1,2, ...,q (12)
and product reliability will be W

Nt)= nn
@(Z,(t)) (5)
s s y ( t k ) = ~ssi(tk)+ 'E Ssij(tk) + ssE(tk)
i=l Ki,jSw
i=l
k=1,2, ...,q (13)
The product's safety margin function is defined by
Table 1 shows an exaimple of 3 ~ 2 ~dynamic
-' fractional
Z,(t)= Min{Z,(t), i=1,2,...,n} (6) factorial experiment. From the experimental data, we have the
Suppose the reliability requirement at design life T is R*(T), mean and variance of y a.t time ti, i=1,2,...,9. Suppose T=t,,
and all the failure modes have same weight in reliability
then given the critical value of y, the safety margin function
design, the reliability requirement for every failure indicator
Z(T) can be calculated by using formula (4), and the
parameter will be:
reliability can be calculated by R(T)=@(Z(T)). We can use

1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium 321

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
either Z(T) or R(T) as the response variable in choosing
optimal parameter levels. In most situations, the product
reliability requirement is close to 1. Therefore, Z O usually
has better measurement scale than R(T) in experimental data
analysis.
If we cannot run the experiments to time T, we hope that we
can use regression methods to predict the response variable
values by the observation data at time tk, k=1,2, ...4 q.The
extrapolating prediction method, however, should be very
carefully used in reliability prediction. If y is a degradation
measure corresponding to some known failure mechanisms,
such as wearout and creep, we should combine the knowledge
of failure mechanism with the fractional factorial tq T t
experimentaldata [Ref. 131. Suppose the degradation path can
be fit into a linear model in time interval [ O , q Pig.1, under Fig. 1 . Assumed known failure mechanism model
data transformation), then we can use the data obtained in Z(Q to replace Z(T) as the response value in choosing
time points tk, k=1,2, ...,q, to find the slope and intercept of the optimal parameter levels. Then, we should run the
linear model. Then the extrapolating method can be applied to experiments with the optimal parameters set to time T to find
predict Z(T). This data analysis process is illustrated by Fig. 1 the product reliability under the optimal parameter settings.
and Table 2. This data andysis process is illustrated by Table 3.
If the failure mechanism model is not available and the
experimentaltime tq <T, it is usually reasonable to use

2 +1 -1 -1

3 -1 +1 -1

4 +1 +1 +1

* Assumed optimal level

322 1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 4. PARAMETER TOLERANCE DESIGN
To determine the design parameter’s tolerances, we need to
establish the relationship between the variance function of y(t)
and the variances of the design parameters. In this section, we
consider how to use Equations (12) and (13) to establish the
variance model.
In establishing the variance model, we need to conduct
fractional factorial experiments by setting the design
parameters around the nominal values, which should be
Here we assume that the design parameters x,, i=1,2, ...,wl
are linear effects parameters; and the design parameters x,,i=
wl+l, ..., w, are qu<adratic effect parameters.. For the
convenience of variance calculation, we use Ix,I to
approximate x.: Then ihe main and interaction effect model
becomes
W

determined by the method described in section 3. There are Y(tkPYO(tk);)+2vi (tk 1%’ Ti (tk ) IXd
two categories of design parameters: linear effect parameters; i=l i=w,+l
quadratic effect parameters. Fig 2. and 3. give the illustrations
of linear effect parameter and quadratic effect parameter. In 4- Cqij(tk)XiXj %(tk); k=lA...,q (15)
the main and interaction effect model, a linear effect Ili<$w
parameters corresponds to a linear term; and a quadratic The geometry meaning of this approximation is illustrated
effect parameter corresponds to a square term. The main and by Fig. 4.
interaction effect model becomes:

2
W
2
Y(fk)= YO(fk)+ Vi (tk ) xi -k qi (tk )xi +

x q i j ( t k )xixj
i=l

-k
i=w +1

Ey(fk) k=1,2,..*,q
9 (14)
t f2
Ili<j<w

I
I
: k. -.

I
Xi& Xi0 &o+A
Xi
From Equations (12) and (13), we want to establish the
Fig. 2. Linear effcct parameter relationship between variance of y and variances of design
parameters:
W

I
I
I i=l Kicj<w
k=1,2, ...,q (16)
Where a’, corresponds to the main effects of xi; 0,;
corresponds to the interaction effects of x, and x,; o’E,(tk) is
the variance correspondling to the pure error, which cannot be
controlled by controlling the tolerances of design
parameters. Thus, we need to determine three group of
components in the model: (a) the variance corresponding to
main effects, (b) the variance corresponding to interactions;
and (c)The variance corresponding to the pure error.

Fig. 3. Quadratic effect parameter (a) The variance corresponding to main effects Suppose
the parameter setting is &=(xlo,x20,...x~). We need to
consider the linear design parameter and quadratic design
parameter separately.

1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium 323

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 Linear effect parameters: For such a parameter, the Then we can summarize the components in formula (16):
corresponding variance component in Equation (1 1) is q?
2
ox,, In experiments, we can take the xlo- A as the low level,
and xIo+A as the high level.
if xi is a linear effect design parameter
Quadratic effect parameters: For quadratic effect
parameters, the response variable has its optimal value at the
nominal value of the design parameters. Approximately, we a-xj
consider the xJo- A and xJo+A to have same effect on the if xi is a quadratic effect design parameter
response variable y. In experiments, we should take xJ0 as the
low level, and either xJo- A or xJo+A as the high level. The
variance component corresponding to the quadratic effect
parameter should be ?l:(tk) o , ~The
~ .relationship between 0’, If interaction effect xlxJis significant
and o,fl is the following: (T2Ey= SSEy(tk)/V (26)
Given the reliability requirement at time T and the critical
value D, we can use variance model to determine the
tolerances of the design parameters. Let the reliability
requirement at time T is R*(T), the mean of y(T) is k(T)
(p.,(T) can be observed in the experiments), the variance
requirement for y(T) is:
(b) The variance corresponding to interactions
To estimate the variance corresponding to the interaction
effects, a2,,,we define the interaction variance coefficient
Kj: Kg(tk)= a’g(tk)/(a*i+a;) (18) Because the variance corresponding to the “pure error”:
Then K,(tk) can be estimated by oEY(T), cannot be controlled by controlling design parameter
Kij(tk)‘ ssg(tk)/(ss,(tk) +ssj(tk)) (19) variation, so the variance which can be controlled by
a21J(tk)’ Klj(td(a21+o;) (20) controlling the variations of design parameters is O ~ ~ ( T - )
o2EY(T).The problem of tolerance design is to choose the
(c)The variance corresponding to the pure error variances of design parameters 02,, i=1,2, ...,n’, to satisfy the
The variance corresponding to the pure error is the variance following formula:
observed in repeated experiments in the same design
parameter setting. Thus, the mean square of pure error can be
the estimate of the variance corresponding to the pure error. i=l Ki<j<w
That is:
(28)
02Ey=MsEy(tk)=ssEy(tk)/v (21)
Because the variances of design parameters are real values, Usually Equation (28) gives multiple possible solutions for
the tolerances of design parameters. Suppose the cost of
we must consider the scale of coefficients q(tk) when we use 0
and 1 to represent the low level and high level in regression design parameter tolerance control are given, the tolerance of
x, , i=1,2,...,w, should be designed such that the cost of
models. Let q(tk)* be the coefficient obtained by using 0 and
tolerance control is minimized. By using optimization
+1 notations, and 8, be the difference between high level
method, the design parameters’ tolerances can be determined.
value and low level value. 8, may be Am or 2A, depending on
In the appendix, we illustrate the parameter tolerance
x, is a linear effect parameter or quadratic effect parameter.
design by a numerical example.
Then, we have
1
qdtd= -‘%(tk)* (22)
%

APPENDZX: Numerical example of tolerance design by Suppose the nominal value of A is a; the nominal value of
dynamic fractional factorial experiments B is b, and both A and B are quadratic effect parameters. Let
0 denote the nominal parameter setting: A=a, and B=b. Let
Suppose we have a product S. Wear out is one of its major +1 denote the bias parameter setting: A=a+AA or A=a-AA;
failure modes. Failure physics analysis shows that two of the B=b+AB or B=b-AB. Here AA= AB=O. 1, o~=cT~=O. 1, D=0.25,
design parameters (denoted by A and B) may have big tk=0, 40, 80, 120, 160, 200, k=0,1, ...,5. We Use 2 X Z 2 to
influence on the wear out process. We want to study the investigate the relationship between design parameters and
relationship between product reliability and the tolerances of degradation measures, and develop the experimental data
product design parameters A and B.

324 1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
shown in Table A-1. The degradation (wearout) tracks in have the mean and variance of cLy(t) and oy(t) shown in table
different parameter sets are shown in Fig A-1. A-2.
Using the linear and interaction effect model Equation (12) The data analysis process in tk, k=1,2,3,4,5, is illustrated by
and sum-of squares decomposition model (Equation 13), we t2=80hr:

Y(200)

0.1634
0.1832
0.2109
0.2764

0.1321
0.1642
0.1862
0.2639

tk 40 80 120 160
h(tk) 0.0817 0.1073 0.1307 0.1592
%(fk) 0.01325 0.01596 0.02091 0.0289

tz=80 hr.
The linear and interaction effect model:
wear out
measure: y(t)
y(t2) = 0.0838 + 0.0156 A + 0.0179 B + 0.0270 AB
Sums-of-Squares decomposition model:
ss(t2)=ssA(t2)+ssB(t2)+ssAB(t2)+ssE(t2)
= 0.0016922 + 0.0019766 +0.0003641+ 0.0001 176
KAB(t2)= ssAB(t2)/(ssA(t2) +ssB(t2))
=0.0003641/(0.0016922+0.0019766)=0.09924
MS~(t2)z0.0000294

--
0~~(t~)=O.3634~(1+0.09924)~(0. 1562~0.01+0.
1792~0.01)
+0.0000294 = 0.0002546
~ ~ ( t 2 0.01596
)=
The regression models of mean function and variance 9) w 19) m
t
function:
Fig. A-1 The tracks of wear out measures
CLy(t) = 0.0516 +0.000691 t
oy(t)= 0.00184 +0.000180 t
Safety margin function:
0.25-( 0.0516+0.000691t)
Z(t)=
0.00184+0.000180t REFERENCES
At T=200: R(T)= @(Z(T))=@(1.58)=0.943 1. Ian Knowles, "Is it time for a new approach", IEEE Trans. Reliabilitb
~01.42, No.1, 1993,March. pp 3.
2. K. L. Won& " A change in direction for reliability engineering is long
Suppose the at time T=200 hr is OV,"~'?, IEEE T-. Reliabili% ~01.42, No.2, 1993,June, pp 261
0.99, we determine the tolerance of A and B: 3. P.D.T. O'Connor" Quality and Reliability : Illusions and realities",
Assume that we can set OA=GB=O. Then we have &Reliability Enpineering International, vol. 9,pp163-168,1993.
4. M. Pecht, etc., "Reliability predictions: their use and misuse", Proceedings
0'3634(0'2592+0.5082)02'[(0*25-0.19)'~-'(O.99)l2-0"0O4'9' ofAnnualReljabjljty and maintainability Symposium, 1994,pp 386-389
02< 0.000246/0.118 16=0.00208 5. R. H. Schaefer, etc., "The necessity of Transformation in the automotive
0,~,=0~1,0.0456 quality & reliability community", Panel prefaces, Proceedings of Annual
using 30 as the half of tolerance interval, the tolerances of Reliability and maintainability.S~m~~srum, 1994,PPI-4
6. J. R Fragola, "Designing for Success: Reliability technology in the current
AandBare engineering era", Proceedings of Annual Reliability and Maintainability
[a-0.137, a+O.137], [b-0.137, b+O.137]. Symposium,l993.pp 77-82.

1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and I"TAINAB1LlTY Symposium 325

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.
 7. K. Yang, J. Xue, “Continuous State Reliability Analysis” ,Proceedings of
IEEEAnnual Reliability andAdainfainability Symposium, 1996. pp251-257
8. M. Hamada, “ Reliability improvement via Taguchi’s robust design”,
Oualitv and Reliability Engineering International. vol. 9, no.1, 1993. pp7-13
9. J. Xue ,K. Yang , “Quality Lass,Robustness and Reliability‘: Reliability &
Quality in Design, Proceedings of ISSAT International conference, Seattle,
Wash;lpton, Mar. 1994, pp20-24
10. M. Hamada, “Using statistically designed experiments to improve
reliability and to achieve robust reliability’’ , IEEE Trans. Reliabili vol. 44,
No.2, June, 1995. pp 206-215
11. C. J. Lu, W. Q. Meeker, “ Using degradation measures to estimate a time-
to-failure distribution”, Technometrics, May, 1993, vol. 35, No.2. pp161-174
12 L.W. Condra, Reliability Improvement With Design of Experiments, 1993,
Marcel Dekker.
13. P. Engel, “Failure models for mechanical wear models & mechanisms”,
IEEE Trans.Reliability Vol. 42, No. 2, June, 1993, pp262-267

Kai Yang, Ph.D.

Deaartment of Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering
Wayne State Univeraity
Detroit, MI 48202
Internet (e-mail): kyang@rme.eng.wayne.edu

Kai Yang is an Associate Professor in the Department of Inmistrial and

Manufacturing Engineering, Wayne State University. He received both MS and
Ph.D. eom Industrial and Operations Research Engineering &om University of
Michigan in Ann Arbor. Dr. Yang has been doing active research in quality and
reliability engineering since he joined Wayne State University. Dr. Yang is a
senior member of IIE, member of ASQC, IEEE INFORMS and the American
Statistical Association.

Jianan Xue, Ph.D, CQE

Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Department
College of Engineering
Wayne State University
Detroit, Michigan 48202 USA.
Intemet (email) : jX2@nova.eng.wayne.edu

Jianan Xue obtained his Ph.D. degree in 1995 &om Industrial & Manufacturing
Engineering Department at Wayne State University. He has taught and
researched in the field of quality and reliability engineering since 1985, and has
published some papers in these fields. He is ASQC member, IEEE member,
Certified Quality Engineer.

326 1997 PROCEEDINGS Annual RELIABILITY and MAINTAINABILITY Symposium

Authorized licensed use limited to: ULAKBIM UASL - Cankaya University. Downloaded on May 28,2024 at 13:55:34 UTC from IEEE Xplore. Restrictions apply.