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Migration and Commuting: A Theoretical Framework: Termote, M.G. IIASA Working Paper
Migration and Commuting: A Theoretical Framework: Termote, M.G. IIASA Working Paper
Migration and Commuting: A Theoretical Framework: Termote, M.G. IIASA Working Paper
Theoretical Framework
Termote, M.G.
May 1980
Termote, M.G. (1980) Migration and Commuting: A Theoretical Framework. IIASA Working Paper. WP-80-069 Copyright
© 1980 by the author(s). http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/1400/
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WORKING PAPER
MIGRATION AND COMMUTING:
A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
Marc Termote
May 1980
wP-80-69
. 1lASA
'5;
.m
...
r
International Institute
for Applied Systems Analysis
NOT FOR QUOTATION
WITHOUT PERMISSION
OF THE AUTHOR
Marc Termote
May 1980
wP-80-69
D e c l i n i n g r a t e s of n a t i o n a l p o p u l a t i o n growth, c o n t i n u i n g
d i f f e r e n t i a l l e v e l s of r e g i o n a l economic a c t i v i t y , and s h i f t s
i n t h e m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s of p e o p l e and j o b s a r e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c
e m p i r i c a l a s p e c t s of many developed c o u n t r i e s . I n some r e g i o n s
t h e y have combined t o b r i n g a b o u t r e l a t i v e (and i n some c a s e s
a b s o l u t e ) p o p u l a t i o n d e c l i n e of h i g h l y u r b a n i z e d a r e a s , i n o t h e r s
t h e y have b r o u g h t a b o u t r a p i d m e t r o p o l i t a n growth.
A l i s t of p u b l i c a t i o n s i n t h e Urban Change S e r i e s a p p e a r s
a t t h e end of t h i s p a p e r .
Andrei Rogers
Chairman
Human S e t t l e m e n t s
and S e r v i c e s Area
ABSTRACT
T h i s p a p e r c o n s i d e r s t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between t h e two
b a s i c ways t o a d j u s t t o s p a t i a l s e p a r a t i o n : m i g r a t i o n and coa-
muting. A f t e r a b r i e f d i s c u s s i o n of t h e r o l e m i g r a t i o n and
commuting p l a y i n s e l e c t e d urban and r e g i o n a l models, w e p r e s e n t
a micro-economic t h e o r e t i c a l framework f o r a n a l y z i n g t h e i n t e r -
r e l a t i o n s between t h e s e two forms of movement. The main p a r t
of t h e p a p e r i s devoted t a t h e i n t e g r a t i o n of commuting i n t o
demographic a n a l y s i s . A f t e r d i s c u s s i n g t h e demographic meaning
of commuting and t h e problems of s t a t i s t i c a l i n f o r m a t i o n , w e
p r e s e n t a s i m p l e a c c o u n t i n g model which a l l o w s f o r t h e simultaneous
c o n s i d e r a t i o n of m i g r a t i o n and commuting and conclude w i t h some
methodological i m p l i c a t i o n s .
TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
1. MIGRATION AND COMMUTING IN URBAN AND REGIONAL MODELS
2. A MICRO-ECONOMIC THEORETICAL FRELMEWORK
3. INTEGRATING COMMUTING INTO DEMOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS
3.1 The Demographic Meaning of Commuting
3.2 Sources of Data
3.3 Combining Migration and Commuting into a
Demographic Growth Model
3.4 Methodological Implications
NOTES
BIBLIOGRAPHY
PAPERS IN THE URBAN CHANGE SERIES
MIGRATION AND COMMUTING:
A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK
INTRODUCTION
I n a c l o s e d - r e g i o n s i t u a t i o n t h e r e a r e f i v e b a s i c ways
f o r the labor force t o adjust t o disequilibria i n the labor
market. The i n h a b i t a n t s may r e s p o n d by: 1 ) changing t h e i r
l a b o r f o r c e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e , 2 ) changing t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n ,
3 ) changing t h e i r s e c t o r of a c t i v i t y while m a i n t a i n i n g t h e i r
p r o f e s s i o n , 4 ) changing t h e i r occupation w i t h i n t h e i r p r o f e s -
s i o n and w i t h i n t h e i r a c t i v i t y s e c t o r , 5 ) a c c e p t i n g p a r t i a l
o r t o t a l unemployment. I n t h e c a s e o f a n open r e g i o n , however,
w e must c o n s i d e r two more ways o f a d j u s t m e n t , 6 ) m i g r a t i o n
and 7 ) commuting.
Many i n t e r c o n n e c t i o n s between t h e s e v a r i o u s t y p e s o f
adjustment a r e possible. For i n s t a n c e , s e c t o r a l m o b i l i t y may
be accompanied by p r o f e s s i o n a l m o b i l i t y and m i g r a t i o n , o r may
b e a s u b s t i t u t e f o r them. It i s c l e a r t h a t t h e r o l e of each
o f t h e s e s e v e n t y p e s o f m o b i l i t y , and t h e i n t e r r e l a t i o n s
between them, i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d e g r e e o f s p a t i a l , s e c t o r a l ,
p r o f e s s i o n a l , and o c c u p a t i o n a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n . For example,
i f t h e s e c t o r s o f economic a c t i v i t y a r e b r o a d l y d e f i n e d w h i l e
s p a t i a l disaggregation i s very d e t a i l e d , then t h e s p a t i a l
m o b i l i t y l e v e l ( m i g r a t i o n and commuting] may a p p e a r t o b e
h i g h and t h e s e c t o r a l m o b i l i t y low; t h e s p a t i a l m o b i l i t y b e i n g
i n t h i s case more l i k e l y t o b e c o n s i d e r e d a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r
t h e s e c t o r a l mobility. Moreover, t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s e a d j u s t m e n t s
depends on t h e l e n g t h o f t i m e p e r i o d s u s e d i n t h e a n a l y s i s .
P r o f e s s i o n a l and sectoral m o b i l i t y l e v e l s may a p p e a r low o v e r
s h o r t p e r i o d s o f t i m e and h i g h o v e r a l o n g e r t i m e s p a n ( f o r
example, a q u a r t e r o f a c e n t u r y ) , even i f t h e p r o f e s s i o n a l
c a t e g o r i e s a n d t h e s e c t o r s o f economic a c t i v i t y are b r o a d l y
defined.
I n t h i s paper, w e w i l l consider only i n t e r r e l a t i o n s
between m i g r a t i o n and commuting, however, a l l o t h e r i n t e r -
c o n n e c t i o n s w i t h t h e f i r s t f i v e t y p e s o f a d j u s t m e n t s h o u l d be
k e p t i n mind. After a b r i e f discussion of t h e r o l e migration
and commuting p l a y i n s e l e c t e d u r b a n and r e g i o n a l m o d e l s , w e
w i l l p r e s e n t a t h e o r e t i c a l framework f o r a n a l y z i n g t h e
i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between t h o s e two forms of movement, a n d c o n c l u d e
w i t h m e t h o d o l o g i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s i n t h e f i e l d o f demo-economic
analysis.
I n l o c a t i o n theory t h e problem of l o c a t i n g t h e p l a c e of
r e s i d e n c e h a s been d i s c o n n e c t e d from t h e p r o b l e m o f l o c a t i n g
t h e p l a c e o f work. S i m i l a r l y , u r b a n and r e g i o n a l models t r e a t
m i g r a t i o n and commuting s e p a r a t e l y . Let us consider t h a t a t
t i m e t t h e r e are m p l a c e s o f r e s i d e n c e and n p l a c e s o f work
d i s t r i b u t e d over space. T h e r e are t h r e e ways t o combine p l a c e
o f r e s i d e n c e and p l a c e o f work t h a t are u s e f u l when c o n s i d e r i n g
t h e m i g r a t i o n and commuting problem i n s p a t i a l a n a l y s i s .
These a r e : 1 ) t h e p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e o f e a c h worker i s g i v e n ,
b u t h i s p l a c e o f work i s n o t ; 2 ) t h e p l a c e o f work o f e a c h
w o r k e r i s g i v e n , b u t h i s p l a c e of r e s i d e n c e i s n o t ; 3 ) n e i t h e r
p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e n o r p l a c e o f work i s g i v e n . 1
D e r i v i n g t h e n a t u r e o f t h e m o b i l i t y p r o c e s s from t h e
e x i s t e n c e o f a b o r d e r i s u n f o r t u n a t e l y a t r a d i t i o n a l way of
r e a s o n i n g i n economic t h e o r y . " C l a s s i c a l " t r a d e t h e o r y assumes
t h a t when i n t e r r e l a t i o n s between c o u n t r i e s a r e c o n c e r n e d ,
i n t e r n a t i o n a l e q u i l i b r i u m may be r e a c h e d o n l y t h r o u g h moving
p r o d u c t s a c r o s s t h e b o r d e r , w h i l e f a c t o r s of p r o d u c t i o n ,
assumed t o be immobile between c o u n t r i e s , a r e c o n s i d e r e d a s
completely mobile w i t h i n c o u n t r i e s .
The problem however i s n o t s o much o n e of t e r r i t o r i a l
d e l i m i t a t i o n , b u t r a t h e r o n e o f t e m p o r a l d i m e n s i o n . Commuting,
a s s u c h , i s a s t a t i c phenomenon. Commuter f l o w s a r e t h e l i n k
between t h e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s i d e n c e s a t a g i v e n
moment i n t i m e , and t h e s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of employment a t
t h e same moment i n t i m e . But a s soon as one c o n s i d e r s m i g r a t i o n ,
and t h e r e f o r e t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f combining m i g r a t i o n and com-
m u t i n g , t h e n one n e c e s s a r i l y o b t a i n s a dynamic model. This
makes i t much more d i f f i c u l t . A s J . Huff p u t s i t , one h a s
"suggested frameworks for incorporating both the distribution
of job opportunities and (housing) opoortunities within a
single.dynamic model, but the resulting complexity of the models
precludes their use as a practical forecasting devise. ,,2 1
No attempt will be made here in this direction. We will limit
ourselves, in the next section, to a micro-economic theoretical
framework for the simultaneous determination of place of work
and place of residence.
I n o r d e r t o r e a c h some p l a c e o f work i , t h e i n d i v i d u a l
r e s i d i n g i n j w i l l c h o o s e , among a l l t h o s e v a r i o u s c o m b i n a t i o n s
of m i g r a t i o n and commuting, one t h a t minimizes h i s c o s t s
( d i s c o u n t e d o v e r h i s l i f e s p a n ) a t t h e same t i m e c h o o s i n g a
particular cost structure. The consideration of a spatial
sequence of work places implies the substitution of one
combination of migration and commuting into another, and
therefore, the substitution of one structure of mobility
inputs to another. In other words, the mobility costs function
is not linear and homogeneous: doubling the distance over
which spatial mobility is considered does not imply doubling
the quantity of each input used.
It seems reasonable, even necessary, to take into con-
sideration spatial changes in the price of those mobility
inputs. For instance, it is obvious that the value of a time
unit spent in commuting increases when the distance increases.
More particularly, once a certain distance of commuting is
reached, the value of a unit of time spent in commuting increases
exponentially, and, if one wishes to reach a further point,
one has to substitute non-economic goods (psychological
inputs) for time, by migrating instead of commuting. Similarly,
if it is difficult to substitute a psychological good for a
time input, which is often the case with older workers, the
individual will usually favor the psychological goods. He
will therefore prefer commuting to migration.
Besides substitution effects on mobility inputs, we must
consider substitution and income effects of spatial mobility
on consumption. Indeed, the price structure is not spatially
constant, and, moreover, migration and commuting imply that
income is spatially different. This will lead to a modifica-
tion in the consumption structure of the individual who moves.
Often, it is precisely because the individual wants to change
the structure of his consumption, that he will change the loca-
tion of his residence. For example, an income elasticity of
demand for land (price of land being held constant) which is
greater than unity, and a lower price for land as one leaves
the center of the city, will lead to a migration to the
suburbs. In the suburbs the individual will consume more space
(land) and substitute cultural goods delivered at home (tele-
vision) for cultural goods which have to be consumed at the
place of production (theater).
According to the approach adopted aDove, a change in the
employrnent-residence pattern implies a change in the marginal
utility of places. This change is related to a change in the
elasticity of substitution between mobility inputs, of sub-
stitution between goods consumed, of demand with respect to
income, and to a change in the marginal utility of each good,
23
and the spatial evolution of prices and income.
A t t h e end of t h e t i m e i n t e r v a l , s a y a t ( t + l ) , t h e popula-
t i o n r e s i d i n g i n r e g i o n i h a s t o be d i s a g g r e g a t e d n o t o n l y
a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r p l a c e o f work b u t a l s o accordimg t o t h e x r
p r e v i o u s ( i - e . , a t t i m e t ) p l a c e o f r e s i d e n c e and p l a c e o f
work. I f t h e r e are n r e g i o n s i n t h e s p a t i a l s y s t e m , t h e r e
are n2 c a t e g o r i e s w i t h i n t h e g r o u p o f t h o s e r e s i d i n g i n r e g i o n
i a t t i m e ( t + l ) and working i n r e g i o n j a t t i m e ( t + l ) . For
i n s t a n c e , f o r i = j = 1 , w e have:
( P l ( t ) C 1 2( t )l m ll C 11 ( t + l ) + ('1 ( t l c 1 3 ( t )) m ll c l 1 ( t + l ) + ...
+ ('1 ( t l C l n( t )l m l 1'1 1 ( t + l )
3. Those who have a d o p t e d commuting a s a s u b s t i t u t e f o r
migration:
1'(
+ (t)'13 (t))m12C21 (t+l) + 1'( (t)C13(t))m13C3~(t+l)+ ...
+ 1'( (t)'13 (t))mlncnl (t+l)
10. Those who have adopted a combination of migration and com-
muting as a subshitute for previous (usually longer)
commute :
and
IPt+l
1 is a column vector representing the regional
distribution of the population at time (t+l)
by place of residence only.
where -
Pt+l
,
= [y*PtstS]dg, a diagonal matrix with the elements