See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at: https://www.researchgate.

net/publication/320463142

Interannual Variations and Prediction of Spring Precipitation over China

Article in Journal of Climate · October 2017

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0233.1

CITATIONS READS

33 355

2 authors:

Yujia You Xiaojing Jia

Columbia University Zhejiang University
8 PUBLICATIONS 161 CITATIONS 46 PUBLICATIONS 558 CITATIONS

SEE PROFILE SEE PROFILE

All content following this page was uploaded by Xiaojing Jia on 28 January 2019.

The user has requested enhancement of the downloaded file.

15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA 655

Interannual Variations and Prediction of Spring Precipitation over China

YUJIA YOU AND XIAOJING JIA

School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China

(Manuscript received 11 April 2017, in final form 11 August 2017)

ABSTRACT

The interannual variations and the prediction of the leading two empirical orthogonal function (EOF)
modes of spring (April–May) precipitation over China for the period from 1951 to 2014 are investigated using
both observational data and the seasonal forecast made by six coupled climate models. The leading EOF
mode of spring precipitation over China (EOF1-prec) features a monosign pattern, with the maximum
loading located over southern China. The ENSO-related tropical Pacific SST anomalies in the previous winter
can serve as a precursor for EOF1-prec. The second EOF mode of spring precipitation (EOF2-prec) over
China is characterized by a dipole structure, with one pole near the Yangtze River and the other one with
opposite sign over the Pearl River delta. A North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly dipole in
the preceding March is found contribute to the prec-EOF2 and can serve as its predictor. A physics-based
empirical (P-E) model is then formulated using the two precursors revealed by the observational analysis to
forecast the variations of EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec. Compared to coupled climate models, which have little
skill in forecasting the time variations of the two EOF modes, this P-E model can significantly improve
the forecast skill of their time variations. A linear regression model is further established using the time series
forecast by the P-E model to forecast the spring precipitation over China. Results suggest that the seasonal
forecast skill of the spring precipitation over southeastern China, especially over the Yangtze River area, can
be significantly improved by the regression model.

1. Introduction standard deviation of AM precipitation (Fig. 1b) is sim-

ilar to that of the climatology, indicating strong year-to-
Precipitation over China exhibits prominent variability
year variability of the AM precipitation over southern
on both interannual and interdecadal time scales. Be-
China. The ratio of the climatological AM precipitation
cause of its considerable influence on agricultural and
to summer [June–August (JJA)] precipitation over China
economic productivity, extensive research has been de-
is depicted in Fig. 1c. It shows that, over southern China,
voted to exploring its mechanisms and predictability (e.g.,
the amount of the AM precipitation is the equivalent of
Lau and Li 1984; Huang et al. 2003; Wang et al. 2003; Gao
approximately 50%–70% of the summer precipitation.
et al. 2008; Li et al. 2015). Most previous studies focused
Because the early planting season in southern China is
on investigating summer precipitation anomalies (e.g.,
heavily dependent on the amount of spring precipitation,
Chang et al. 2000; Xie et al. 2009), whereas relatively less
improving the accuracy of the seasonal forecast for spring
attention has been paid to spring precipitation. Spring
precipitation will greatly benefit society and the economy
precipitation over southern China actually accounts for
(Qiu et al. 2009; Wu et al. 2014; Chen et al. 2014; Feng
a considerable fraction of the total annual rainfall.
et al. 2014; Wu and Mao 2016). Moreover, since spring is a
Figure 1a presents the climatological mean state of pre-
transitional season that links the preceding winter to the
cipitation for the average of April and May (AM) over
succeeding summer, a better understanding of the causes
China. It shows that the AM precipitation has the largest
of the variations in spring precipitation will provide a
loading over southern China and achieves peak values at
fundamental basis for cross-season climate prediction by
two centers, with one located near the Pearl River delta
numerical models.
and the other centered over coastal southeastern China,
The mechanisms that account for the variation of
at approximately 288N. The spatial distribution of the
precipitation over China have been examined in many
previous studies (e.g., Yang and Lau. 2004; Xin et al.
Corresponding author: XiaoJing Jia, jiaxiaojing@zju.edu.cn 2006; Qiu et al. 2009; Feng and Li. 2011; Wu et al. 2014;

DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0233.1
Ó 2018 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
656 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 1. (a) Climatology and (b) standard deviation of AM pre-
cipitation over China for 1951–2014. (c) The ratio of AM pre-
cipitation to summer (JJA) precipitation over China represented
by percentage. The contour interval is 20 mm month21 for (a),
10 mm month21 for (b), and 10% for (c).
Chen et al. 2014; Feng et al. 2014). Previous studies in-
dicate that the precipitation over China can be affected
by many anomalous states of lower boundary conditions
(e.g., Tao and Chen 1987; Wang et al. 2000, Huang et al.
2004; Wu and Kirtman. 2007; Wu et al. 2009; Zuo et al.
2012; Wu et al. 2014; Feng et al. 2014). Among them, El
Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most
important factors that impacts the precipitation over
China on the interannual time scale (e.g., Webster and
VOLUME 31
Yang 1992; Zhang and Sumi 2002; Wang et al. 2003; Xie
et al. 2009). Wang et al. (2000) showed that the anom-
alous sea surface temperature (SST) associated with El
Niño in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific induces
anomalous convergence in the upper-level eastern
tropical Pacific and descent over the Philippine Sea,
favoring the development of an anomalous lower-level
Philippine Sea anticyclone (PSAC). The anomalous
PSAC can act as a medium bridging remote El Niño
forcing and variations in the East Asian climate as it
enhances southerly winds to its northwest flank and
generates above-average precipitation and temperatures
over China. The PSAC can persist through local air–sea
interactions over the western North Pacific, causing
rainfall anomalies over southern China in the ensuing
spring and summer. In the work of Feng and Li (2011),
it was further shown that canonical El Niño events and
central Pacific warming have different effects on spring
precipitation over China.
The relationship between spring precipitation over
China and the Indian Ocean has also been explored. The
remote effect of the tropical Indian Ocean in main-
taining the PSAC via capacitor effects has been ex-
plored by Xie et al. (2009). Chen et al. (2014) proposed
an interdecadal change in the relationship between
south Indian Ocean SST anomalies (SSTAs) and in-
terannual variations in winter–spring persistent pre-
cipitation over southern China. The effects of Indian
Ocean SST played a more central role in modulating the
variability in winter–spring persistent precipitation for
1974–94 than in modulating that for 1953–73, which was
most likely caused by enhanced SST variation in the
south Indian Ocean. The south Indian Ocean subtropical
dipole (IOSD) was also found to influence spring pre-
cipitation over regions near the Yangtze and Yellow
Rivers through the modulation of meridional circulation
(e.g., Feng et al. 2014). Some studies have investigated
the impact of the Eurasian–Tibetan Plateau snow cover
on the rainfall over East Asian. For example, Wu and
Kirtman (2007) suggested that anomalous excessive
spring precipitation in southern China can be associated
with spring snow cover in western Siberia. Zuo et al.
(2012) examined the relationship between the snow water
equivalent (SWE) and the spring rainfall and found that
decreased spring SWE in Eurasia is related to negative
spring rainfall anomalies over southeastern and north-
eastern China, and positive rainfall anomalies over
southwestern and northwestern China could be found.
Some other studies investigated the characteristics of
the long-term trends of spring precipitation over China.
For example, pronounced positive and negative trends
of spring precipitation were observed by Yang and Lau
(2004) in southeastern China and central-eastern China,
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA
respectively. The forcing mechanism accounting for
these trends in association with the global SST has been
examined. Qiu et al. (2009) demonstrated that the rainfall
in May over southeastern China has significantly de-
creased in recent decades along with a phase transition to
La Niña over the Indo-Pacific Ocean. In addition to
SSTAs, Wu et al. (2014) reported that mid-to-high-latitude
atmospheric circulation anomalies induced by anomalous
states of lower boundary conditions, such as Eurasian
snow cover and depth, could influence Eurasian climate
anomalies in spring and summer.
Although efforts have been devoted to investigating
the mechanisms of the variability of spring precipitation
over China, questions regarding which of the proposed
factors is most essential to understanding its variability
still remain. Furthermore, the question of which factors
can be used in the seasonal forecasting of the spring
precipitation over China has not been well investi-
gated. In the current work, the variations of the spring
precipitation over China are investigated through an
empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. We
concentrate on examining the leading two EOF modes
of spring precipitation. Their associated climate anom-
alies are investigated with a focus on identifying their
respective related SST precursors. In addition, empiri-
cal models are established according to the results of
the observational analysis. We demonstrate that the
seasonal forecast skill of the spring precipitation in
southern China can be significantly improved by these
empirical models.
The organization of the rest of the text is as follows.
The datasets, methodology, and model used in this study
are introduced in section 2. Section 3 presents the
characteristics of the climatology of spring precipitation
over China. Section 4 examines the features of the first
two EOF modes of spring precipitation, as well as their
associated atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies.
In section 5, the forecast skill of the multimodel en-
semble (MME) of six coupled climate models in pre-
dicting the variation of spring precipitation is examined.
Empirical models are then established trying to improve
the seasonal forecast skill of spring precipitation. A
comprehensive summary of the results and a discussion
are presented in section 6.
2. Data, methodology, and models
a. Observational data and methodology
The datasets used in this study include the following:
1) monthly mean reanalyses of sea level pressure (SLP),
geopotential heights, specific humidity, and wind from
the National Centers for Environmental Prediction
657
(NCEP)–National Center for Atmospheric Research
(NCAR) Global Reanalysis 1 (Kalnay et al. 1996) (these
data are available at a horizontal resolution of 2.58 3 2.58);
2) the observed monthly mean precipitation of 160 Chi-
nese meteorological stations, obtained from the National
Climate Center of the China Meteorological Adminis-
tration; 3) the NOAA Extended Reconstructed SST,
version 3b (ERSST.v3b; Smith et al. 2008), which has a
resolution of 2.08 3 2.08; and 4) the Global Precipitation
Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly mean precipitation
data with a horizontal resolution of 2.58 3 2.58 (Adler
et al. 2003). All the datasets used in the study cover the
period 1951–2014 except for the GPCP, which covers the
period 1979–2014.
An EOF analysis was applied to the spring precipi-
tation over China to subtract the leading EOF modes.
To determine the climate anomalies associated with
these leading EOF modes, Pearson correlation and re-
gression analyses were carried out between a physical
field and the time series associated with these EOF
modes. The ENSO variability is represented by averaging
the SST over the Niño-3.4 region (58S–58N, 1708–1208W).
To explore the mechanism behind the connection
between large-scale circulation anomalies and the spring
precipitation over China, a phase-independent wave
activity flux proposed by Takaya and Nakamura (2001)
was used. The flux is based on the conservation of wave
activity pseudomomentum and is a useful diagnostic tool
for identifying sources or sinks of wave activity. In the
current work, the horizontal component of this flux is
calculated which is can be given by
1
W5 [U(c02 0 0 0 0 0 0
x 2 c cxx ) 1 V(cx cy 2 c cxy )
2jUj
3 U(c0x c0y 2 c0 c0xy ) 1 V(c02 0 0
y 2 c cyy )] ,
where c is the streamfunction and subscripts are partial
derivatives in x and y directions; also, U 5 (U, V) de-
notes the 500-hPa two-dimensional geostrophic zonal
and meridional velocity components for spring mean
flow and primes denote deviations from the climatology.
b. Models
The MME of the seasonal forecast of six coupled cli-
mate models was used to examine the performance of the
numerical models in predicting the variation of spring
precipitation over China. The climate numerical models
used include the CAWCR from the Asia–Pacific Eco-
nomic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center/Climate
Prediction and Its Application to Society (APCC/
CliPAS) project and the CMCC–INGV, ECMWF,
Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences at Kiel University
(IFM-GEOMAR), Météo-France (MF), and Met Office
658 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 31

FIG. 2. The climatological mean of (a) March and (b) AM precipitation (shading, mm day21) and the vertically
integrated water vapor transport [vector, kg (m s)21]. (c) The difference between (a) and (b) obtained by sub-
tracting (a) from (b).

(UKMO) models from the Ensemble-Based Predictions
of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (EMSEMBLES)
project (Weisheimer et al. 2009; Wang et al. 2009a,b; Jia
et al. 2014a,b). None of the coupled models has flux ad-
justments. The seasonal forecasts from March to May,
initialized from the first day of February for the period
from 1960 to 2005, are used in the current study. For the
1-month lead seasonal forecasts, the first month of the
integration was not used, as we are mainly interested in
the forecast signal coming from air–sea coupling rather
than the atmospheric initial conditions. The MME pre-
dictions were made based on the equally weighted aver-
age of the six coupled climate model ensemble mean
anomalies after removing their own climatology. Further
information about the climate models can be found in
Jia et al. (2014a,b).
3. The climatology of spring precipitation in China
In this section, we first present evidence to show that
there are remarkable differences in the mean state and
the temporal variations of the precipitation over southern
China between March and the following AM. The
characteristics and variations of the precipitation over
southern China in March are more closely related to those
in the preceding January–February (JF). Therefore, AM
rather than March–May (MAM) is used to represent the
spring season in the current study.
The climatological mean precipitation (shading) and
the vertically integrated moisture fluxes (vector) for
March and AM are presented in Figs. 2a and 2b, re-
spectively. The differences between Figs. 2a and 2b are
depicted in Fig. 2c, which was obtained by subtracting
Fig. 2a from Fig. 2b. As shown in Fig. 2a, the climato-
logical mean precipitation in March is primarily con-
centrated over southeastern China. The moisture
transportation to China in March mainly includes two
branches. One branch is with a southwesterly along the
northern flank of the western Pacific subtropical high
(WPSH), and the other branch is along a subtropical
westerly at 308N. From March to AM, the magnitude of
the time-averaged precipitation obviously increased in
magnitude, with the maximum center of the precipitation
moving southwestward to the Pearl River delta (Fig. 2b).
Differences in the water vapor transportation to southern
China are also observed between AM and the previous
15 JANUARY 2018
TABLE 1. The fraction of the variance explained by EOF1 of the
monthly mean precipitation over China from January to May
during 1951–2014 represented using percentages.
January February March April
EOF1 49% 48% 40% 26%
March. The center of the WPSH moves eastward from
approximately 1208E in March to 1358E in AM, causing
an eastward shift of the associated moisture transport on
its northwestern flank. Moisture transportation along the
subtropical westerly at 308N still remains in AM. A third
branch of water vapor transport can be observed origi-
nating from southern India, traveling across the whole of
Indo-China and finally reaching southern China. Differ-
ences in the transportation of water vapor between
March and AM can be even more clearly seen from
Fig. 2c. Notable water vapor transportation from the
Indian Ocean to southern China in AM is observed,
denoting that the Indian Ocean plays a more important
role in the variation in precipitation over southern
China in AM compared to that in the previous March.
To further understand the variations of the charac-
teristics of spring precipitation over China, an EOF
analysis was performed on the monthly mean pre-
cipitation of 160 Chinese meteorological stations from
January to May to identify the dominant precipitation
patterns. The leading two EOF modes can distinct from
one another and from the remaining eigenvectors
according to the criterion defined by North et al. (1982).
The spatial distributions of the leading EOF mode
(EOF1) of the monthly mean precipitation and their
corresponding principal component (PC1) from January
to May were examined. It was found that the spatial
patterns of EOF1 share many similarities from January
to May (not shown). Table 1 presents the fractions of
variance explained by the EOF1, represented using
percentages. It shows that the variance explained by
EOF1 exceed 40% for January, February, and March,
while it decreases drastically to 26% and 22% in April
and May, respectively. The drastic decline from March
to AM in the percentage of the variance explained by
EOF1 might suggest a greater similarity of the vari-
ability in precipitation in March to the previous January
and February than to the following April and May.
The temporal correlation coefficients (TCCs) of the
principal components (PCs) associated with the leading
two EOF modes among various months for the period of
1951–2014 are presented in Table 2. The TCC for the
PC1 between March and JF is 0.27, statistically signifi-
cant at the 95% confidence level. The TCC is, however,
not significant and presents a value of only 0.09 between
March and AM, which cannot pass the significance test.
YOU AND JIA 659
TABLE 2. TCCs of PC1hf and PC2hf between JF and March,
between March and AM, and between April and May. An asterisk
indicates correlation significant at the 95% confidence level.
May JF/March March/AM April/May
22% PC1 0.27* 0.09 0.24*
PC2 0.25* 0.12 0.26*
The TCC between the PC2 for March and AM is only
0.12 and does not pass the significance test, whereas it is
0.24 between March and JF, which is again significant at
the 95% confidence level.
In summary, the above results indicate that the char-
acteristics of water vapor transportation to China in
March are quite different from those in AM. The tem-
poral variation of the precipitation in March bears more
similarities to those of the previous JF than to those of
the succeeding AM. Therefore, in the following, AM is
used to represent the spring season for precipitation
over China. The TCC between the PC1 obtained using
AM and that obtained using MAM is 0.90 while that for
PC2 is 0.91; both are significant at the 99% significant
level according to the Student’s t test examination.
Therefore we believe that the results are not very sen-
sitive to the choice of the selected months in the current
work although differences also exist.
4. The leading two modes of spring precipitation
and associated climate anomalies
a. Characteristics of the leading two EOF modes of
the spring precipitation
In this section, we continue concentrate on exploring
the two leading modes of AM precipitation (EOF1-prec
and EOF2-prec) to investigate the characteristics of
spring precipitation over China and their associated
climate anomalies. EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec account
for 26% and 17% of the total variance in spring pre-
cipitation, respectively, and are distinct from one an-
other and from the remaining eigenvectors according to
the criterion defined by North et al. (1982). The nor-
malized principal components of the leading two EOF
modes (PC1 and PC2, respectively) are presented as
bars in Figs. 3b and 3d, respectively. The 9-yr running
averages of PC1 and PC2 are also overlaid in Figs. 3b
and 3d, represented by solid black lines. Both PC1 and
PC2 show clear interannual and interdecadal variability
for the period under examination. The spatial distribu-
tions of the leading two EOF modes, represented by
linear regression of the spring precipitation over China
onto PC1 and PC2, are presented in Figs. 3a and 3c,
respectively. The spatial distribution of EOF1-prec
features a monosign pattern with the maximum
660 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 31

FIG. 3. The linear regression of AM precipitation over China onto its corresponding time series of (a) EOF1 and
(c) EOF2 for 1951–2014. The normalized time series (bars) are presented for (b) PC1 and (d) PC2. The black lines
in (b) and (d) denote the 9-yr running mean of the time series.

loading located over southern China and with amplitudes b. Large-scale circulation anomalies associated with
decreasing from southeast to northwest (Fig. 3a). A posi- EOF1-prec
tive (negative) EOF1-prec is represented by enhanced
We first examine the large-scale circulation anomalies
(reduced) rainfall anomalies in southern China. To un-
associated with EOF1-prec. The regression maps of the
derstand the representativeness of EOF1-prec for spring
winds at 850 hPa onto PC1hf are depicted in Fig. 5a. The
precipitation over China, an index is constructed using the
EOF1-prec associated water vapor transportation and
normalized area-averaged AM precipitation over 208–
the divergence are calculated and presented in Fig. 5b.
308N, 1108–1208E [precipitation index (PI); Fig. 4]. The
In Fig. 5a, associated with a positive EOF1-prec an
TCC between PC1 and PI is 0.98 for the period 1951–2014,
anomalous lower-level anticyclone is clearly seen cen-
far exceeding the 99% significance level, indicating that
tered at 208N, 1408E. Anomalous southwesterlies are
PC1 can serve as a reasonable indicator of the variation in
observed along the northwest of the anomalous anticy-
the spring precipitation over southern China. The main
clonic system transporting moisture from the western
feature of EOF2-prec is a north–south dipole structure
tropical Pacific Ocean to southern China (Fig. 5b).
with an out-of-phase relationship between the Pearl River
Water vapor converges in southeastern China consistent
delta and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze
with the enhanced precipitation over there during a
River (Fig. 3c). A positive (negative) phase of EOF2-prec
positive EOF1-pr.
is featured by enhanced (suppressed) precipitation over
As we mentioned in the introduction, many previous
the Yangtze River and suppressed (enhanced) pre-
studies have revealed that ENSO is one of the most
cipitation over the Pearl River delta.
important factors that influences precipitation anoma-
Some previous studies have noted that mechanisms
lies in southern China (e.g., Li 1988; Wang et al. 2000;
accounting for the climate anomalies over East Asia are
Xie et al. 2009; Jia et al. 2014a,b). The PSAC is the key
different for interannual and interdecadal time scales.
In the current study, we focus on examining the in-
terannual variations of spring precipitation over China
and therefore a Fourier harmonic bandpass filter is used
to remove the variations with periods longer than 10 yr.
Only the time scales between 2 and 9 yr have been kept
in the data and are denoted by subscript ‘‘hf’’ in the
following sections. This will also reduce the influence of
plausible unrealistic interdecadal data variation on the FIG. 4. The solid line depicts the normalized area-mean AM
precipitation anomalies for 208–308N, 1108–1308E (PI), and PC1 is
interannual relationship (e.g., Inoue and Matsumoto denoted by the dashed line. The TCC between PC1 and PI is 0.98
2004; Wu et al. 2005). The results obtained are not for the period 1951–2014, which is shown in the upper-right corner
sensitive to the filter method used in the current study. of the figure.
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA
FIG. 5. The regression maps of (a) 850-hPa wind (m s21) and (b) water vapor transport [vector, kg (m s)21] and
divergence (shading, mm day21) onto PC1hf. Red (blue) shading in (a) denotes positive (negative) correlations sig-
nificant at the 95% confidence level. Stippled regions in (b) denote correlations significant at the 95% confidence level.
system that bride remote ENSO forcing to East Asian
climate variation (e.g., Wang et al. 2000; Xie et al. 2009),
which can also be seen from Fig. 5. To see the time evo-
lution impact of ENSO on EOF1-prec, the EOF1-prec-
related tropical Pacific SSTAs from the preceding
autumn fOctober–December, for year 21 [OND(21)]g
to the succeeding summer [JJA(0)] are presented in Fig. 6.
Corresponding to a positive EOF1-prec, in the preceding
autumn (Fig. 6a), significant El Niño–like SSTAs domi-
nate the eastern tropical Pacific. Meanwhile, pronounced
negative SSTAs are noticed over the western tropical
Pacific. In the following winter (Fig. 6b), to the west flank
of the western tropical Pacific SSTAs, a horseshoe-like
positive SSTA appears, forming a tropical Pacific tripolar
SSTA pattern. In the following spring (Fig. 6c), the eastern
tropical Pacific SSTAs decrease sharply and almost dis-
appear. In contrast, the western tropical Pacific negative
SSTAs and the positive SSTAs around southern China
remain throughout this season, with the positive SSTAs
strengthening in amplitude and reaching their peak. The
eastern tropical Pacific SSTAs transfer to a negative phase
in the following summer and combine with the negative
SSTAs over the western tropical Pacific, forming La Niña–
like SSTAs (Fig. 6d). The positive SSTAs around the
South China Sea still remain in the following summer and
weaken in amplitude.
Compared to the SSTAs over the eastern tropical
Pacific, which adapt from an El Niño–like SSTA pattern
in the preceding autumn to a La Niña–like SSTA pattern
in the following summer, the western tropical Pacific
negative SSTAs and the positive SSTAs on its northwest
661
persist from wintertime to the following summer. As
suggested by previous studies (e.g., Wang et al. 2000,
2003), during positive ENSO events, in the ensuing
spring and summer, as the eastern tropical Pacific posi-
tive SSTAs decay rapidly, over the western tropical
Pacific the western tropical Pacific anticyclone can be
maintained through local air–sea interactions. More
specifically, anomalous northeastern winds on the east
side of the anticyclonic system strengthen climatological
trade winds, enhancing the latent heat flux from the
ocean to the atmosphere and cooling its underlying SST.
Negative SSTAs excite anomalous westward propagat-
ing and descending Rossby waves, reinforcing the anti-
cyclonic system in return. On the west side of the
negative SSTAs, southerlies prevail along the western
flank of the anticyclonic system, transporting warm air
from low-latitude oceans and contributing to the posi-
tive SSTAs around the South China Sea and surround-
ing regions.
To better understand the time relationship between
EOF1-prec and ENSO, the lead–lag correlation be-
tween PC1hf and the Niño-3.4 index is depicted in Fig. 7.
It shows that the simultaneous TCC between the PC1hf
and the Niño-3.4 index is not significant and, with a value
of only 0.12, is consistent with Fig. 6c. The TCC between
the PC1hf and the Niño-3.4 index in the previous sea-
sons, however, is significant at the 95% confidence level
and can be traced back to the time when the Niño-3.4
SST leads PC1hf by 12 months. The TCC between PC1hf
and Niño-3.4 index remains significant until the follow-
ing year, but with a reversed sign. The above analysis
662 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 31

FIG. 6. The regression maps of SST in (a) OND(21), (b) January–March [JFM(0)], (c) AM(0),
and (d) JJA(0) onto PC1hf. Solid (dashed) contours indicate positive (negative) values. Light and
dark red (blue) shading denotes positive (negative) correlation coefficients significant at the 95%
and 99% confidence levels, respectively. The contour interval is 0.058C, and zero contour is omitted.

indicates that the Niño-3.4 SST in the previous season contribute to the EOF2-prec are not well explored. The
can serve as a good predictor for the EOF1-prec for regression maps of SLP and 500-hPa geopotential height
seasonal forecasting. (Z500) onto PC2hf are further examined and displayed
in Figs. 9a and 9b, respectively. At the surface, pro-
c. Large-scale circulation anomalies associated with nounced positive SLP anomalies are clearly seen dom-
EOF2-prec inating the midlatitude western North Pacific, inducing
Similar to Fig. 5, the EOF2-prec related climate cir- cyclonic anomalous southerly wind over the coastal
culation anomalies are presented in Fig. 8. The EOF2-
prec associated winds at 850 hPa (Fig. 8a) show that
southwesterlies prevail along the coastal area of eastern
China from 208 to 308N while southeasterlies dominate
from 308 to 408N. The winds along the coastal area turn
to southwesterlies over the regions north of the Yangtze
River. The spatial distribution of the EOF2-prec-related
water vapor transport (Fig. 8b) suggests a low-level cy-
clonic southerly wind inducing anomalous moisture
convergence over coastal China north of 308N and
moisture divergence over southeastern China, consis-
tent with the north–south dipole structure of EOF2-
prec, which shows an out-of-phase relationship between
the Pearl River delta area and the middle and lower
FIG. 7. The lead–lag TCCs between PC1hf and the Niño-3.4 index
reaches of the Yangtze River region. from the previous December [Dec(22)] to the following Septem-
Compared to the ENSO-related PSAC that can im- ber [Sep(11)]. The short-dashed lines represent the 95% and 99%
pact the EOF1-prec, the circulation anomalies that confidence levels according to the Student’s t test.
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA 663

FIG. 8. As in Fig. 5, but for the regression maps onto PC2hf.

regions of China along its western flank (Fig. 9a). In the
midtroposphere, the atmospheric circulation anomalies
over the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemi-
sphere are dominated by a wave train–like structure,
originating from the North Atlantic Ocean, across the
Ural Mountains, propagating eastward across the whole
Eurasian continent (Fig. 9b). As we mentioned before,
the wave activity flux proposed by Takaya and
Nakamura (2001) is a good diagnostic tool for exploring
the source region of atmospheric motion. To trace the
source of the EOF2-prec related wave train–like circu-
lation anomalies in Fig. 9b, the wave activity flux at Z500
associated with PC2hf is calculated and presented in
Fig. 10 represented by vectors. The regression of Z500
onto PC2hf is also overlaid on this map (contours). It
shows that the wave activity flux originates from the
midlatitude North Atlantic Ocean, flows eastward
across the Eurasian continent, and reaches the Japan
Sea. This distribution of the wave activity flux indicates
that the North Atlantic Ocean may serve as a possible
energy source region for the EOF2-prec-related wave
train–like circulation anomalies.
Inspired by Fig. 10, the EOF2-prec-related North
Atlantic SSTAs from the previous February to the fol-
lowing June are examined and presented in Fig. 11.
Statistically significant negative SSTAs over the sub-
polar North Atlantic and positive SSTAs to the south
are observed in spring (Fig. 11c). This north–south

FIG. 9. The regression maps of (a) SLP (hPa) and (b) Z500 (m) onto PC2hf. Solid (dashed)
contours represent positive (negative) values. Light and dark red (blue) shading denotes
positive (negative) correlation coefficients significant at the 95% and 99% confidence levels,
respectively. The contour interval is 0.25 hPa in (a) and 4 m in (b), and zero contour is omitted.
664 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 31

FIG. 10. The regression map of the Z500 (contour, m) and the wave activity flux (vector, m2 s22)
onto PC2hf.

SSTAs dipole can be traced back to the preceding
February and peaks in magnitude in the preceding
March and almost disappears in the following June.
These results indicates that the SSTA over subtropical–
midlatitude North Atlantic is a possible source of the
wave train–like circulation anomalies. A North Atlantic
SST dipole index (NASDI) is then defined by differ-
ences in normalized SSTAs between 358–458N, 658–
458W and 508–608N, 508–108W. This index is not very
sensitive to the region selected above. Figure 12 presents
the lead–lag temporal correlation coefficients between
PC2hf and the NASDI. It shows that the TCC between
PC2hf and the NASDI exceeds the 95% confidence level
when the NASDI leads PC2hf by two months. The TCC
reaches its maximum in March and then decreases with
time, consistent with Fig. 11. The above analysis sug-
gests that the SSTA dipole over the North Atlantic
Ocean of the previous March can excite a stationary
Rossby wave train–like atmospheric pattern that
propagates eastward to the downstream region. The
positive anomalies of the wave train–like atmospheric
pattern over the western tropical Pacific can influence
the moisture transport from the low-latitude ocean to
southern China in the following AM, implying that the
North Atlantic SSTAs dipole in the previous March could
serve as a predictor for the EOF2-prec. The TCC

FIG. 11. The regression maps of SST in (a) February, (b) March, (c) AM, and (d) June onto PC2hf. Solid (dashed)
contours represent positive (negative) values. Light and dark red (blue) shading denotes positive (negative) cor-
relation coefficients significant at the 95% and 99% confidence levels, respectively. The contour interval is 0.058C,
and zero contour is omitted.
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA
between the NASDI and the NAO index in the previous
winter has been examined. It shows that the TCC be-
tween NASDI in March is significantly correlated to the
NAO index in the previous February and January with
TCCs of 0.44 and 0.41, respectively, significant at the 99%
significant level, indicating that the North Atlantic SST
dipole may be the result of the NAO from the previous
winter. However, more studies are needed to better un-
derstand their mechanisms.
Wave train–like patterns originating from the North
Atlantic and propagating downstream to East Asia have
been observed in several previous studies (e.g.,
Watanabe. 2004; Wu et al. 2009; Wu et al. 2011; Li et al.
2015). For example, a significant wet trend in winter was
observed after the 1970s over the Yangtze River by Li
et al. (2015). They related the wet trend to a wave train–
like pattern originating in western Europe and extend-
ing downstream to northeastern China (Li et al. 2015;
their Fig. 6). Wu et al. (2009) suggested that a tripolar
SST pattern over the North Atlantic in the spring could
persist into the following summer and excite a down-
stream teleconnection pattern prevailing along the pole-
ward flank of the westerly jet and that this pattern could
affect the Asian subtropical front of the following summer.
Watanabe (2004) showed that in February, when the
NAO accompanies the Mediterranean convergence
anomaly, the NAO signals can extend downstream
through a wave train–like pattern along the Asian jet
stream. In the current study, we further demonstrate that,
on the interannual time scale, the SSTA dipole over the
North Atlantic Ocean of the previous winter can excite a
stationary Rossby wave train–like pattern that propa-
gates eastward and contributes to precipitation over
China in the following spring. More specifically, it can
contribute to the second EOF mode of spring pre-
cipitation over China by modulating the circulation
anomalies over the western North Pacific regions.
5. The seasonal prediction of spring precipitation
over China
In this section, the seasonal prediction of spring pre-
cipitation over China is examined. The performance of
six coupled climate models in predicting the variations
in spring precipitation over China is first examined.
We focus on examining the capacity of the numerical
models’ to forecast the leading two EOF modes of
spring precipitation. A physics-based empirical (P-E;
Wu et al. 2009; Yim et al. 2014; Wang et al. 2015) model
is then established according to the observational anal-
ysis results presented in the last section with the aim to
improve the seasonal forecast skill of spring pre-
cipitation over China.
665
FIG. 12. The lead–lag correlation coefficients between PC2hf and
NASDI from the previous October [Oct(21)] to the following No-
vember [Nov(0)]. The short-dashed lines represent the 95% and
99% confidence levels, respectively, according to the Student’s t test.
An EOF analysis similar to that used for the obser-
vational data was applied to the MME forecast of the
AM precipitation over China for the period of 1960–
2005 to obtain the forecast leading two EOF modes. The
regression maps of the MME forecast AM precipitation
onto the associated normalized time series have been
presented in Fig. 13. It shows that the forecast leading
two EOF modes of the spring precipitation share many
similarities to EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec in the obser-
vations, indicating that the MME of the six coupled
numerical models can reasonably capture the spatial
structures of the observed leading two EOF modes of
the spring precipitation over China. However, the TCC
between the forecast PC1hf and the observed PC1hf is
only 0.08 while that between the forecast PC2hf and the
observed PC2hf is 0.07, indicating that the numerical
models present almost no capacity to predict variations
of the leading two EOF modes in the observations.
In the following, to reveal the ability of the numerical
models’ forecasting the leading two EOF modes of the
observational precipitation over China, the MME fore-
cast of AM precipitation is projected onto the observa-
tional EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec as shown in Figs. 3a
and 3c, respectively, to obtain the MME forecast time
series of the observational EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec.
The normalized forecast time series, namely MME-
PC1hf and MME-PC2hf, are presented as blue lines in
Figs. 14a and 14b, respectively. The corresponding time
series of observational PC1hf and PC2hf are also overlaid
as black lines in Fig. 14 for the purpose of a better
comparison. The TCC between MME-PC1hf and PC1hf
is only 0.03, whereas that between MME-PC2hf and
PC2hf is only 0.07 for the period 1960 to 2005; both
cannot pass the significance test, indicating that the MME
forecast AM precipitation presents almost no capacity to
666 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE VOLUME 31

FIG. 13. The linear regression maps of MME forecast of AM precipitation over China onto (a) PC1hf and (b) PC2hf.
The contour interval is 3 mm month21, and zero contour is omitted.

predict the variations of the observational leading two
EOF modes of spring precipitation over China.
In the last section, the analysis results suggest that the
Niño-3.4 index in the previous season can serve as a
predictor for PC1hf, whereas the NASDI in the previous
March is significantly correlated with PC2hf. In the fol-
lowing, the Niño-3.4 index (NINO34) of the previous
winter and the NASDI in the preceding March are se-
lected to construct a physics-based empirical model using
the linear regression method to predict the observational
PC1hf and PC2hf. The P-E model is expressed as
PC1 5 a0 1 a1 NINO34 1 «1 ,
PC2 5 b0 1 b1 NASDI 1 «2 ,
where a0, a1, b0, and b1 are regression coefficients, and «1
and «2 are the residuals.
Following Wu et al. (2009) and Lin and Wu (2011),
a ‘‘leaving 16 out’’ strategy is used to determine the
robustness of the hindcast results for the period of 1951–
2014. The cross-validation method systematically re-
moves 16 years. A forecast model is then derived for the
remaining years and can be tested on the omitted cases.
In the present study, 16 years account for about 25% of
the total hindcast period (64 yr), which can prevent
overfitting and data wasting in the process. To test
the predictive capability of the P-E model, the cross-
validation method is applied to perform the hindcast.
The cross-validated estimates of PC1hf and PC2hf are
(1) shown as red lines in Fig. 14. The TCC between the
(2) hindcast PC1hf from the P-E model and the observa-
tional PC1hf (black line) is 0.35, which exceeds the 99%
confidence level. The TCC between the hindcast PC2hf
from the P-E model and the observational PC2hf is 0.26,

FIG. 14. (a) The PC1hf of the observational data (black lines), the P-E model (red lines) and
the MME (blue lines). The TCC of PC1hf between the observational data and the P-E model as
well as that between the observational data and the MME are indicated on the bottom-left
corner. An asterisk indicates correlation significant at the 95% confidence level. Purple plus
signs represent the predicted PC1hf derived from the P-E model based on data before 2000.
(b) As in (a), but for PC2hf.
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA
with a statistical significance t test P value of 0.001,
again, statistically significant at the 99% confidence
level. Therefore, the results indicate that the P-E model
clearly performs better in predicting the variations of
the observational EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec than the
MME forecasts of the six coupled climate models for the
period under examination.
To further evaluate the real forecasting ability of the
P-E model, another experiment was performed. A similar
P-E model is established; however, it is trained using the
data before 2001. This P-E model is then used to do pre-
dictions for 2001–14 (shown as purple plus signs in
Fig. 14). The result shows that the P-E model can still
reasonably predict the variation of EOF1-prec and EOF2-
prec for this period. Some extreme years of PC1, such as
2010 and 2011, are predicted well by the P-E model, al-
though at a smaller magnitude compared to the observa-
tions, possibly due to fewer predictors in the equations.
As we know, in the Northern Hemisphere various ac-
tive teleconnection patterns over the mid-to-high lati-
tudes can affect climate variations (e.g., Wallace and
Gutzler 1981). Some of these may also be related to the
pattern shown in Fig. 9. We examined the TCCs between
the PC2hf and the indices of several well-known tele-
connection patterns that have been identified by previous
studies. Results show that the TCC between PC2hf and
the index of the west Pacific (WP) pattern (WPI) reaches
0.34, statistically significant beyond the 99% confidence
level. As the WP pattern dominates the subtropical
northwestern Pacific and Kamchatka (figures not shown),
displaying as a dipole structure in the north–south di-
rection, and the PCC between WP and EOF2-prec rea-
ches 0.38. Therefore, we speculate that the WP may
interact with the North Atlantic SSTA dipole forced
wave train–like pattern over the western North Pacific
and together contribute to EOF2-prec variations. Specific
mechanisms of this interaction are, however, beyond the
scope of the present study and may be investigated in
future studies. The TCC between the WPI and NASDI is
not significant, suggesting that they can serve as an in-
dependent precursor for EOF2-prec. The P-E model for
PC2 is now written in the following format:
PC2 5 b0 1 b1 NASDI 1 b2 WPI 1 «2 . (3)
The TCC between the time series of the P-E model in
(3) predicted and the observational PC2 is now in-
creased to 0.39, which is statistically significant at the
99% confidence level. It suggests that the WP can clearly
improve the seasonal forecast skill for the time variation
of EOF2-prec.
Inspired by the above results that show that the P-E
model can significantly improve the forecast skill of the
667
time evolution of the observational EOF1-prec and
EOF2-prec, in the following another regression model is
constructed aim to improve the seasonal forecasting of
spring precipitation over China. In essence, this approach
uses the preforecast time series from the P-E model [(1)
and (2)] and the spatial structures of the observational
EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec to construct a new set of
seasonal forecasts. The regression model can be written as
Pre(x, y, t) 5 PC1(t)EOF1(x, y) 1 PC2(t)EOF2(x, y) 1 «,
(4)
where PC1 and PC2 are the time series obtained from
the P-E model [(1) and (2)]. EOF1 and EOF2 are the
spatial structures of the observational EOF1-prec and
EOF2-prec, respectively, and « is the residual and is
omitted in the current calculations. Again, a cross-
validation method is used when calculating PC1 and
PC2 to mimic an operational environment.
The correlation skill of the above regression model in
forecasting spring precipitation over China is depicted in
Fig. 15b and that for the MME forecast AM pre-
cipitation of the six coupled climate models is presented
in Fig. 15a. The results show that the TCC skill of
the MME forecast AM precipitation barely exceeds the
90% confidence level over southern China, where the
climatological mean and the variations have the largest
loadings. In contrast, the TCC skill of the regression
model is clearly improved over southern China, espe-
cially over the Yangtze River area. The results suggest
that the regression model can efficiently improve the
seasonal forecasting of spring precipitation over south-
ern China by improving the forecast skill of the time
series of the observational EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec.
Another linear regression model is established using
PC1 forecast by P-E model in (1) and PC2 forecast by
P-E model in (3). The result of the TCC skill (Fig. 15c)
shows that the spring precipitation forecast skill has
been further improved over the southern China area.
6. Summary and discussion
Using both observational data and the MME of the
1-month-lead seasonal forecast made by six coupled
climate models, the interannual variations and the pre-
diction of spring precipitation over China are examined.
Evidence has been first presented to show that the pre-
cipitation over China in spring is better represented by
that of April–May (AM). The characteristics and the
variations of the precipitation in March show a closer
relationship with those of the previous January–
February (JF) compared to those of the following AM.
Therefore, AM is used to represent the spring season for
668 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
FIG. 15. (a) The TCC (contours) of AM precipitation between the observational data and the MME forecasts of the six coupled climate
models for 1960–2005. (b) As in (a), but for the TCC between observational data and the regression model using time series forecast by the
P-E model in (1) and (2). (c) As in (b), but using time series forecast by the P-E model in (1) and (3). Light and dark shading denotes
correlation significant at the 90% and 95% confidence levels, respectively.
the precipitation over China in the current study. The
interannual variations of spring precipitation over
China are investigated by applying an EOF analysis to
the observational precipitation data. Results show that
EOF1-prec is characterized by a monosign pattern with
dominant loading over southern China. A positive
EOF1-prec, which features enhanced rainfall in
southern China, is closely related to El Niño–type
SSTAs over the eastern tropical Pacific in the pre-
ceding winter. The EOF2-prec, which features a north–
south dipole pattern of opposite signs centered over the
Yangtze River and Pearl River delta, is significantly
correlated with equivalent wave train–like circulation
anomalies in northern mid-to-high latitudes. This wave
train–like pattern can impact the variations of spring
precipitation over China by modulating the circulation
anomalies over the western North Pacific, causing
anomalous moisture convergence over the Yangtze
River alongside divergence conditions in southern
China. The prec-EOF2 is found to be related to a me-
ridional SST anomaly dipole over the North Atlantic,
which can be traced back to the previous March.
The MME forecast AM precipitation of six coupled
climate models show almost no skill in predicting the
variations of EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec. A physics-
based empirical (P-E) model was formulated based on
the results of the observational analysis to improve the
seasonal forecast skill. It has been demonstrated that
this P-E model performs much better in predicting the
time series of EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec. A linear re-
gression model is further constructed using the P-E
model predictions to forecast the spring precipitation
over China. Results suggest that the forecast skill of the
spring precipitation over southeastern China, especially
over the Yangtze River area, can be significantly im-
proved by the regression model. The precursors used
in the experiments described above can be easily
VOLUME 31
monitored in real time; therefore, the proposed P-E
model and the regression model can serve as an efficient
real-time forecasting tool for spring precipitation over
southern China.
It is worth noting that in this study we only examined
the first two EOF modes of spring precipitation over
China, which together explain approximately 43% of
the total variation in precipitation for 1951–2014. The
remaining EOF modes of spring precipitation over
China are not discussed. However, over southern China,
the EOF1-prec and EOF2-prec together can explain
more than 70% of the variability over the Yangtze River
and more than 60% of variability over southeastern
China for spring precipitation (figure not shown). This
may explain why the improved forecasting skill of the
time series associated with prec-EOF1 and prec-EOF2
could efficiently improve the seasonal forecasting of
spring precipitation over these regions. Furthermore, in
the current study, the underlying assumption of the P-E
model and the linear regression model is that the EOF
modes remain relatively stable during the period under
examination. However, some previous studies suggest
that the precipitation over China undergoes significant
decadal modulations (e.g., Xin et al. 2006; Qiu et al.
2009; Wu and Mao 2016). For example, Xin et al. (2006)
suggested that late spring precipitation in southern
China decreased significantly after the late 1970s in as-
sociation with upper troposphere anomalous cooling
over central China. Qiu et al. (2009) showed that late
spring rainfall over southeastern China has decreasing
by more than 30% since 1951. Wu and Mao (2016) also
showed that the impact of ENSO on spring precipitation
in southern China can be modulated by the Pacific de-
cadal oscillation (PDO) through effects of variations in a
low-level subtropical anticyclonic system over the western
North Pacific. Additional studies on interdecadal changes
of the predictive capacity of the P-E model and the
15 JANUARY 2018 YOU AND JIA
regression model may therefore need to be conducted in a
future study.
Acknowledgments. This research was funded by Na-
tional Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants
41475065 and 41530425) and by the Fundamental Re-
search Funds for the Central Universities. The authors
would like to acknowledge the support from the training
center of atmospheric sciences of Zhejiang University.
REFERENCES
Adler, R. F., and Coauthors, 2003: The Version-2 Global Precipitation
Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation analysis
(1979–present). J. Hydrometeor., 4, 1147–1167, https://doi.org/
10.1175/1525-7541(2003)004,1147:TVGPCP.2.0.CO;2.
Chang, C. P., Y. Zhang, and T. Li, 2000: Interannual and inter-
decadal variations of the East Asian summer monsoon
and tropical Pacific SSTs. Part I: Roles of the subtropical
ridge. J. Climate, 13, 4310–4325, https://doi.org/10.1175/
1520-0442(2000)013,4310:IAIVOT.2.0.CO;2.
Chen, J.-P., Z.-P. Wen, R. Wu, Z.-S. Chen, and P. Zhao, 2014:
Interdecadal changes in the relationship between southern
China winter–spring precipitation and ENSO. Climate Dyn.,
43, 1327–1338, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1947-x.
Feng, J., and J. Li, 2011: Influence of El Niño Modoki on spring
rainfall over south China. J. Geophys. Res., 116, D13102,
https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD015160.
Feng, J.-Q., L.-J. Yu, and D.-X. Hu, 2014: Influence of Indian
Ocean subtropical dipole on spring rainfall over China. Int.
J. Climatol., 34, 954–963, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3732.
Gao, H., and Coauthors, 2008: Analysis of the severe cold surge, ice-
snow and frozen disasters in South China during January 2008: II.
Possible climate causes (in Chinese). Meteor. Mon., 34, 101–106.
Huang, R., L. Zhou, and W. Chen, 2003: The progresses of recent
studies on the variabilities of the East Asian monsoon and
their causes. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 20, 55–69, https://doi.org/
10.1007/BF03342050.
——, G. Huang, and Z. Wei, 2004: Climate variations of the sum-
mer monsoon over China. East Asian Monsoon, C.-P. Chang,
Ed., World Scientific Publishing, 213–270.
Inoue, T., and J. Matsumoto, 2004: A comparison of summer sea
level pressure over East Eurasia between NCEP-NCAR
reanalysis and ERA-40 for the period 1960–99. J. Meteor.
Soc. Japan, 82, 951–958, https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2004.951.
Jia, X. J., J.-Y. Lee, H. Lin, A. Alessandri, and J.-K. Ha, 2014a:
Interdecadal change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal
climate prediction skill: Part I. The leading forced mode of
atmospheric circulation. Climate Dyn., 43, 1595–1609, https://
doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1988-1.
——, ——, ——, H. Hendon, and J.-K. Ha, 2014b: Interdecadal
change in the Northern Hemisphere seasonal climate pre-
diction skill: Part II. Predictability and prediction skill. Climate
Dyn., 43, 1611–1630, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2084-x.
Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP–NCAR 40-Year Re-
analysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437–471, https://
doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1996)077,0437:TNYRP.2.0.CO;2.
Lau, K.-M., and M.-T. Li, 1984: The monsoon of East Asia and its
global associations—A survey. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
65, 114–125, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1984)065,0114:
TMOEAA.2.0.CO;2.
669
Li, C. Y., 1988: The frequent actions of the East Asian trough and
the occurrences of El Niño. Sci. China, 31B, 667–674.
Li, X.-F., J. Li, and Y. Li, 2015: Recent winter precipitation in-
crease in the middle-lower Yangtze River valley since the
late 1970s: A response to warming in the tropical Indian
Ocean. J. Climate, 28, 3857–3879, https://doi.org/10.1175/
JCLI-D-14-00701.1.
Lin, H., and Z. Wu, 2011: Contribution of the autumn Tibetan
Plateau snow cover to seasonal prediction of North American
winter temperature. J. Climate, 24, 2801–2813, https://doi.org/
10.1175/2010JCLI3889.1.
North, G. R., T. L. Bell, R. F. Cahalan, and F. J. Moeng, 1982:
Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal
functions. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 699–706, https://doi.org/
10.1175/1520-0493(1982)110,0699:SEITEO.2.0.CO;2.
Qiu, Y., W. Cai, X. Guo, and A. Pan, 2009: Dynamics of late spring
rainfall reduction in recent decades over southeastern China.
J. Climate, 22, 2240–2247, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2809.1.
Smith, T. M., R. W. Reynolds, T. C. Peterson, and J. Lawrimore,
2008: Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land–
ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J. Climate,
21, 2283–2296, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2100.1.
Takaya, K., and H. Nakamura, 2001: A formulation of a phase-
independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migra-
tory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic
flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 608–627, https://doi.org/10.1175/
1520-0469(2001)058,0608:AFOAPI.2.0.CO;2.
Tao, S., and L. Chen, 1987: A review of recent research on the East
Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology,
C. P. Chang and T. N. Krishnamurti, Eds., Oxford University
Press, 60–92.
Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the
geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere
winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784–812, https://doi.org/10.1175/
1520-0493(1981)109,0784:TITGHF.2.0.CO;2.
Wang, B., R. Wu, and X. Fu, 2000: Pacific–East Asian teleconnec-
tion: How does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J. Climate, 13,
1517–1536, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013,1517:
PEATHD.2.0.CO;2.
——, ——, and T. Li, 2003: Atmosphere–warm ocean in-
teraction and its impacts on Asian–Australian monsoon
variation. J. Climate, 16, 1195–1211, https://doi.org/10.1175/
1520-0442(2003)16,1195:AOIAII.2.0.CO;2.
——, and Coauthors, 2009a: Advance and prospectus of seasonal
prediction: Assessment of the APCC/CliPAS 14-model en-
semble retrospective seasonal prediction (1980–2004). Climate
Dyn., 33, 93–117, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-008-0460-0.
——, J. Liu, J. Yang, T. Zhou, and Z. Wu, 2009b: Distinct
principal modes of early and late summer rainfall anoma-
lies in East Asia. J. Climate, 22, 3864–3875, https://doi.org/
10.1175/2009JCLI2850.1.
——, J.-Y. Lee, and B. Xiang, 2015: Asian summer monsoon
rainfall predictability: A predictable mode analysis. Climate
Dyn., 44, 61–74, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2218-1.
Watanabe, M., 2004: Asian jet waveguide and a downstream
extension of the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Climate, 17,
4674–4691, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-3228.1.
Webster, P. J., and S. Yang, 1992: Monsoon and ENSO: Selectively
interaction systems. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 118, 877–926,
https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711850705.
Weisheimer, A., and Coauthors, 2009: ENSEMBLES: A new
multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions—
Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical
670 JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Pacific SSTs. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21711, https://doi.org/
10.1029/2009GL040896.
Wu, R., and B. P. Kirtman, 2007: Observed relationship of spring
and summer East Asian rainfall with winter and spring
Eurasian snow. J. Climate, 20, 1285–1304, https://doi.org/
10.1175/JCLI4068.1.
——, J. L. Kinter III, and B. P. Kirtman, 2005: Discrepancy
of interdecadal changes in the Asian region among the NCEP–
NCAR reanalysis, objective analyses, and observations.
J. Climate, 18, 3048–3067, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3465.1.
——, S. Yang, S. Liu, L. Sun, Y. Lian, and Z. Gao, 2011: Northeast
China summer temperature and North Atlantic SST. J. Geophys.
Res., 116, D16116, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD015779.
——, G. Liu, and P. Zhao, 2014: Contrasting Eurasian spring
and summer climate anomalies associated with western and
eastern Eurasian spring snow cover changes. J. Geophys. Res.
Atmos., 119, 7410–7424, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021764.
Wu, X., and J. Mao, 2016: Interdecadal modulation of ENSO-
related spring rainfall over South China by the Pacific decadal
oscillation. Climate Dyn., 47, 3203–3220, https://doi.org/
10.1007/s00382-016-3021-y.
Wu, Z., B. Wang, J. Li, and F.-F. Jin, 2009: An empirical seasonal
prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using
ENSO and NAO. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D18120, https://doi.org/
10.1029/2009JD011733.
View publication stats
VOLUME 31
Xie, S.-P., K. Hu, J. Hafner, H. Tokinaga, Y. Du, G. Huang,
and T. Sampe, 2009: Indian Ocean capacitor effect on Indo–
western Pacific climate during the summer following
El Niño. J. Climate, 22, 730–747, https://doi.org/10.1175/
2008JCLI2544.1.
Xin, X., R. Yu, T. Zhou, and B. Wang, 2006: Drought in late spring
of south China in recent decades. J. Climate, 19, 3197–3206,
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3794.1.
Yang, F.-L., and K.-M. Lau, 2004: Trend and variability of China
precipitation in spring and summer: Linkage to sea-surface
temperatures. Int. J. Climatol., 24, 1625–1644, https://doi.org/
10.1002/joc.1094.
Yim, S.-Y., B. Wang, and W. Xing, 2014: Prediction of early
summer rainfall over South China by a physical-empirical
model. Climate Dyn., 43, 1883–1891, https://doi.org/10.1007/
s00382-013-2014-3.
Zhang, R., and A. Sumi, 2002: Moisture circulation over East Asia
during El Niño episode in northern winter, spring and autumn.
J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 213–227, https://doi.org/10.2151/
jmsj.80.213.
Zuo, Z.-Y., R.-H. Zhang, B.-Y. Wu, and X. Rong, 2012: Decadal
variability in springtime snow over Eurasia: Relation with
circulation and possible influence on springtime rainfall over
China. Int. J. Climatol., 32, 1336–1345, https://doi.org/10.1002/
joc.2355.