Chapter 35

Business Continuity Planning for Rail Infrastructure in

India under Multi-hazard Risk Analysis

Dheeraj Joshi
Ministry of Railways, Government of India.
mailurs.dj@gmail.com

Abstract
Rail infrastructure in India is the backbone of economy in India and is the main transport mode for passenger including newly
planned High Speed Rail corridors and freight transportation. But rail infrastructure assets are frequently exposed to multi-
hazards which sometimes cause disruptions in safe operations. The resilience of infrastructure in the event of major disruptions
is important to sustain the business, which is very critical especially in developing country like India to keep the wheels of
economy running. For a developing country like India, it is imperative to develop infrastructure including rail infrastructure
projects in a manifested sustainable manner besides focus on boosting the economy of India and post-pandemic scenario the
key to ensure delivery of reliable transport services is possible only with focus on transport sustainability. The synthesized
application of geo-spatial technologies is useful in not only improving risk modelling but also in prioritization of the resources
for identification of critical rail infrastructure and building back better. Risk to railway infrastructure in this study is defined as
per UNDRR terminology, which is a function of hazard, exposure, and local compounding vulnerability. The study is in line
with Sustainable Development Goal 11 and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Keywords: Sustainability, Geo-spatial technology, Disaster risk, Critical infrastructure, Safety.

1. Introduction requiring high public expenditure should be developed in a

Sustainable development means designing the right mix of
economic, social, and environmental designs for today and
for tomorrow (Tracey et al, 2008). “Sustainable infrastructure
projects” are important component of SDGs which includes
sustainable and reliable transport systems as a key driver
to improve socio-economic profile of a country. History of
major developed geographies such as Japan and Western
Europe reveals that the period of construction of transport
infrastructure like railroads symphonized with the period of
rapid economic growth (Banerjee et. al, 2012). India has a
large and diverse, spatially distributed transport network and
serves more than a billion population. Rail infrastructure in
India is the backbone of economy in India and is the main
transport mode for passenger and freight transportation.
There exists huge potential to invest in energy efficient
transport infrastructure in India and National Rail Plan by
Ministry of Railways has recommended new High Speed Rail
Corridors for development after Mumbai-Ahmedabad High
Speed Corridor (National Rail Plan 2021). But such projects
sustainable manner besides propelling the economy of India.
Disasters indicate failures in development and disaster
risk is an apt measure of the sustainability of development
(PreventionWeb, UNDRR). The rail infrastructure assets
being spatially distributed are frequently exposed to multi-
hazards which at times cause disruptions in safe operations.
Disruptions like disasters can interrupt the organization’s
entire operations and its ability to deliver timely services,
that is, preventing them from continuing in a normal way.
The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 caused widespread
damage to the infrastructure which included railway
infrastructure and the economic impact of the disaster was
about 16.9 trillion Yen as per the estimates of Cabinet Office,
Disaster Management section and the damage to Railways as
announced by JR-East amounted to approx. 67 billion Yen
which excluded the lines damaged by the tsunami (Kazama
et al, 20212). The transportation sector was the worst
affected during the floods of 2015 in Tbilisi, Georgia (Koks
et al, 2019). These disruptions also expose the underlying

DOI: 10.4324/9781003341970-39
 Business Continuity Planning for Rail Infrastructure in India under Multi-hazard Risk Analysis
vulnerabilities of a networked society, when due to Great
East Japan Earthquake in 2011 there was lowering of global
supply of automotive vehicles due to devastating impact on
automotive and transportation machinery industries (Asano
K., 2012). The heaviest monsoon in 25 years in 2019 in
India caused heavy rains and floods which wreathed havoc
as can I recount from my own experience while serving in
the Vadodara-Surat section and badly affected the safe train
operations in the section.
Currently the focus in transport sector in India is on
emergency response, that is, managing disaster rather
than managing risks (Ernst & Young, 2011). Resilience of
enterprises in the event of major disruptions is important
to sustain the business, which is very critical especially in
developing country like India to keep the wheels of economy
running. Business Continuity Planning (BCP) is such an
approach to not only protect but preserve and build corporate
value and allows organization to return to the status quo as
quickly and as cost effectively as possible (Eric Krell, 2006;
Hiroaki Maruya, 2013).
Fig. 35.1 Business Continuity Planning process
Source: ISO 22313-2020
As per the flowchart of Business Continuity Planning in
figure 1, the key block of understanding the risk of disruption
allows to make informed decisions and plans towards
Business Continuity Planning. Understanding risk through
risk assessment helps to plan for timely repair of vulnerable
assets exposed to hazards as during the 2015 floods in
319
Tbilisi, Georgia the repair of damaged transport assets alone
contributed approximately 60% of the total damage cost which
could have been much less in case of timely repairs. The SDG
11 and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
also calls for understanding risks through risk assessments
for minimizing the social and economic consequences
of such disruptions (Koks E.E. et al, 2019). The ability of
systems to resist, adapt and recover from disasters, whilst at
the same time improve wellbeing of the community, is known
as resilience (PreventionWeb, UNDRR). These risks affect
the well-being of the community and risks like storm water
runoffs can potentially cause floods which pose risks to the
transport infrastructure itself, as has been frequently observed
by the floods in Mumbai which are a result of haphazard
urbanization with increase in built- up area and loss of green
space and bringing the city of Mumbai to standstill including
major routes served by transportation services.
Understanding risk requires us to not only consider the
hazards, exposure of assets and physical vulnerability but
also society’s capacity to protect itself from disasters, that is,
socio-economic vulnerabilities. Vulnerability is the increase
in the susceptibility of assets or systems to the impacts of
hazards under physical, social, economic, and environmental
factors or processes (PreventionWeb, UNDRR). Railway
assets like bridges, tunnels, embankment, cuts, abutments,
slope, and tracks (Pitalikis et al, 2014) are the key elements
which when exposed to hazards of varying intensities can
affect traffic conditions under various damage conditions as
given below in Table 35.1.
Table 35.1 ailway infrastructure and their impact under
R
hazards
Damage Bridge Tunnel Embank- Cut Abut- Slope Tracks
State ment ment
Minor sr sr sr sr sr sr sr
Moderate c c c c c c c
Extensive/ c c c c c c c
complete
sr speed restriction, c closed
Source: Pitalikis et al, 2014
There are some other key railway assets which play significant
role in the safety of railways like level crossings and especially
during heavy rainfalls/floods they affect not railway but road
traffic as well. Moreover, most studies have focussed on rail
infrastructure either existing or newly planned in isolation,
while risk assessment under wide range of hazards is required
for to assess the potential pecuniary damages and quantify
potential benefits of adaptation.
Risk to railway infrastructure in this study is defined as
per UNDRR terminology as a function of hazard – the
probability and severity of an event; exposure – assets
320 5th World Congress on Disaster Management
subject to the hazard; and vulnerability – local susceptibility
of assets to suffer loss and damage under hazard of given
severity. The most frequently recorded emergency situations
in the system can also serve as the comprehensive indicator
of risk assessment as it combines all the factors of risk: multi-
hazards by its physical parameters, exposure of facilities in a
hazard area and vulnerability that links intensity of hazard to
undesirable consequences (Petrova, 2020). The objective of
this study is to do risk assessment of railway infrastructure
subjected to multi-hazards & local vulnerabilities to identify
critical railway infrastructure zones utilising cases of total
frequency of emergencies of varying severity as an indicator
of risk assessment in this study.
2. Methodology and Datasets
Disaster risk reduction is achieved through identifying,
assessing, and understanding risks (PreventionWeb,
UNDRR). UNDRR framework considers risk as a function of
hazard, exposure and vulnerabilities and this risk assessment
framework allows to estimate potential of impacts to multi-
hazards exposed rail infrastructure under local vulnerabilities
is adopted in this study towards risk assessment.
Risk = f (Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)
Application of such framework is evident from the study
of Petrova E., 2020 towards qualitative risk assessment
under multi-hazard scenario utilising historical case records
only. National Disaster Management Plan incorporates
the approach enunciated in the Sendai Framework towards
Fig. 35.2 Risk and associated components
Source: UNDRR-GAR, 2019
substantial reduction of risks. Therefore, understanding risks
is more than just understanding hazards and is a function of
the decisions we make (UNDRR-GAR, 2019).
While Indian Railways under the framework of National
Disaster Management Plan (NDMP) based on Disaster
Management Act, 2005 has adopted the following definition
of Railway Disaster (IR DM Plan, 2019):
“Railway Disaster is a serious train accident or an untoward
event of grave nature, either on railway premises or arising
out of railway activity, due to natural or man-made causes,
that may lead to loss of many lives and/or grievous injuries to
a large number of people, and/or severe disruption of traffic
etc, necessitating large scale help from other Government/
Non-government and Private Organizations.”
But strictly speaking, there is no such thing as a natural disaster,
only natural hazards (GAR, 2019). Hazard is a process,
phenomenon or anthropogenic activity that may cause loss of
life, economic, social disruptions, or environmental damages.
Hazards may be natural, anthropogenic, or socio-natural in
origin (PreventionWeb, UNDRR, 2017). The hazards relevant
to Indian Railways as stipulated vide Disaster Management
Plan are:
1. Train Accidents
2. Floods
3. Seismic
4. Landslides
5. Cyclones
 Business Continuity Planning for Rail Infrastructure in India under Multi-hazard Risk Analysis
6. Snow Avalanches
7. Tsunami
Exposure is the situation of infrastructure, production
capacities and human tangible assets being in hazard-
prone areas. Measures of exposure include the assets and
the number of people in an area (PreventionWeb, UNDRR).
Vulnerability is the characteristics of assets or people which
make them susceptible to negative impacts of hazards. This is
indicative of the adaptive or coping capacity in the event of
hazards (PreventionWeb, UNDRR, 2017).
An emergency caused by the impact of natural hazards on
technological systems and infrastructure can be considered
as a result of all the factors of risk: hazard, exposure, and
vulnerability. Thereby, the most frequently recorded
emergency situations in the system also serve as the
comprehensive indicator of risk assessment as it combines all
the factors of risk: multi-hazards by its physical parameters,
exposure of facilities in a hazard area and vulnerability
that links intensity of hazard to undesirable consequences
(Petrova, 2020). In this study, the above approach of utilising
the emergency situations as a measure of risk was applied.
The information collected by the author for the emergency
situations reported either to Railway Board or Zonal
Railway Headquarters in India from the year 2005 to 2020 is
collected from the Ministry of Railways (Safety Information
Management System, SIMS) and analysed in this study.
3. Results and Discussion
In Fig. 35.3, the risk level is estimated for each Zonal
Railway by the average annual number of emergency
situations (accidents) since the year 2005 to the year 2020.
The emergency situations contain all small/major events
(reported either to Railway Board/Zonal-Railway) as it is
critical in understanding the risk profile of each Zone in
Indian Railways. The average annual frequency (AAF)
of accident cases for each zone is then normalised as in
equation 1.
The emergency situations contain all small/major events
(reported either to Railway Board/Zonal-Railway) as it is
critical in understanding the risk profile of each Zone in
Indian Railways. The average annual frequency of accident
cases for each zone was then normalised as under:
Ê e - emin ˆ
Emergency ency Risk = Á (1)
Ë emax - emin ˜¯
where, e = average annual frequency of accidents/emergency
situations recorded in Railway Board/Zonal Railways
emin = minimum average annual frequency
emax = maximum average annual frequency
321
The risk of emergencies and accidents in railway transport
is contributed by many factors which includes density of the
railway network, traffic intensity, human factors, climatic
conditions, and seasonality (Petrova, 2020) and the result
is shown in Fig. 35.3. As shown in Fig. 35.3, the risk of
railway accidents between the regions in India was found and
the Zones in Indian Railways were divided into five groups
by their risk levels. There were regional differences in the
risk levels and the results shows that the zone of Northern
Railway is highest risk prone followed by the zone of North-
Central Railway.
Fig. 35.3 Risks in railway zones as per emergency cases
Source: Prepared by Author
The risk level was estimated for each season and normalised
based on 30-year accident (major) data of Railways (EM-
DAT data), including cases which resulted in loss of human
lives too.
The seasons are classified as:
Cold weather: Mid-November to mid-March
Hot weather: Mid-March to May end
South-west monsoon season: June to September Retreating
monsoon season: October to mid-November
Regarding the seasonality of accidents as per Fig. 35.4,
they had two peaks: in cold weather and during south-west
monsoon season. Most emergency situations in Indian
Railways are caused by rail fractures during cold weather
hazard and washout or flooding of railway tracks due to
heavy rains or floods hazard, accidents at level crossings due
to poor visibility in heavy rainfall hazard, other processes
contributing such as landslides, debris flows, and rockfalls
hazards. The average risk from emergency cases for the
Indian Railways as whole comes is falling in the range 2-2.5
as per box-plot in Fig. 35.6. Most emergency situations as
322 5th World Congress on Disaster Management

season. Most emergency situations in Indian Railways were

caused by rail fractures during cold weather and washout
or flooding of railway tracks due to heavy rains or floods,
as well as by the slope processes such as landslides, debris
flows, and rockfalls. Analysing the two peaks for season-
wise emergency situations, most emergency situations as
per Figure 10 are registered from in cold weather season and
south-west monsoon season hazards (> 66 %). But out of the
vagaries of nature, monsoon season hazards have the most
critical impact on the railway infrastructure as it accounts for
nearly 50% of the emergency situations in Indian Railways.

Fig. 35.4 Season-wise risk analysis in Indian Railways

5. Conclusions
Source: Prepared by Author
Risk assessment has been done by mapping frequency of
emergency situations recorded in the system (utilizing the
methodology adopted in Petrova, 2020 using the frequency
of emergency situations as a measure of risk). Risk index is
calculated as the annual average frequency of the emergency
situations recorded in the system in each zone of the Indian
Railways. Regional differences were found in the risk of
emergency situations as the normalized risk results show that
the zone of Northern Railways is most risk prone followed
by the zone of North-Central Railway, that is, characterized
by high risk of railway accidents and traffic disruptions.
Considering the influence of seasons on railway infrastructure
the analysis shows two peaks in Winter season (mid-
November to mid-March) and South-west Monsoon season
(June to October) which were caused by rail fractures during
cold weather hazards and washout or flooding of railway
tracks due to heavy rains or floods hazards, as well as by the
slope processes such as landslides, debris flows, and rockfalls
hazards. While the monsoon season hazards have the most
Fig. 35.5 Risk as per seasons in Indian Railways
critical impact on the railway infrastructure as it accounts for
Source: Prepared by Author
nearly 50% of the emergency situations in Indian Railways.
This study is useful for identification of critical infrastructure
regions based on emergency situations recorded in the system
and the results of this study can be utilised for creating an
enabling environment towards business continuity planning
in setting the priority of critical rail infrastructure in India for
safe rail operations.

6. Acknowledgement
Fig. 35.6 Risk under emergency cases scenario in IR This research is in part supported by the Ministry of Railways
Source: Prepared by Author for providing me with the datasets for the study.

per Fig. 35.5 above are registered in monsoon season hazard

(nearly 50%). References
Regarding the seasonality of accidents as per figure 4, they had 1. Tracey et al, OECD Insights, 2008. In: OECD Insights:
Sustainable Development – Linking economy, society and
two peaks: in cold weather and during south-west monsoon
 Business Continuity Planning for Rail Infrastructure in India under Multi-hazard Risk Analysis
environment”. doi: https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264055742-
en
2. Banerjee A., Duflo E., Qian, N. (2012). Massachusetts Institute
of Technology Department of Economics Working Paper
Series on the Road: Access to Transportation Infrastructure
and Economic Growth in China., Access to Tran. Social
Science Research.
3. Ministry of Railways, 2021. National Rail Plan - Final Report
- India - Indian Railway. PreventionWeb, UNDRR. https://
www.preventionweb.net/english/
4. Kazama, M., & Noda, T., 2012. Damage statistics (Summary
of the 2011 off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake
damage). Soils and Foundations, 52(5), 780–792.
5. Koks, E. E., Rozenberg, J., Zorn, C., Tariverdi, M., Vousdoukas,
M., Fraser, S. A., Hall, J. W., Hallegatte, S., 2019. A global
multi-hazard risk analysis of road and railway infrastructure
assets. Nature Communications, 10(1), 1–11.
6. Asano, K. (2012). Rethinking a Business Continuity Plan
(BCP): What Should Companies Learn from the Great East
Japan Earthquake? NRI Papers No. 173, 15.
7. Ernst & Young, 2011. “Business Continuity Management –
Current trends”. In: Insights on IT Risk, Business Briefing.
8. Krell, E., 2006. Management Accounting Guideline: Business
Continuity Management. Management Strategy Measurement.
h t t p : / / w w w. c i m a g l o b a l . c o m / D o c u m e n t s / I m p o r t e d
Documents/Tech_mag_business_continuity_sept06. pdf
323
9. Hiroaki Maruya, 2013. “Proposal for Improvement of
Business Continuity Management (BCM) based on Lessons
from the Great East Japan Earthquake”. In: Journal of JSCE,
Vol.1, 12-21, 2013 Special Topic – 2011 Great East Japan
Earthquake (Invited Paper) (Originally published in Journal of
Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. F6, Vol.67, No.2, Ij-Ij0,
2011 in Japanese).
10. ISO 22313:2020 (2020). Security and resilience – Business
continuity management systems – Guidance on the use
of ISO 22301. Available at: https://www.iso.org/obp/
ui/#iso:std:iso:22313:ed­2:v1:en
11. Pitilakis, K., Crowley, H., Kaynia, A. M., & Facilities,
C. (2014). SYNER-G: Typology Definition and Fragility
Functions for Physical Elements at Seismic Risk.
12. Petrova, E., 2020. Natural hazard impacts on transport
infrastructure in Russia. Natural Hazards and Earth System
Sciences, 20(7), 1969–1983.
13. UNDRR-GAR (2019). Global Assessment Report on Disaster
Risk Reduction, Geneva, Switzerland, United Nations Office
for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR).
14. IR DM Plan (2019). Disaster Management Plan. Ministry of
Railways, Government of India.
15. PreventionWeb, UNDRR (2017). UNDRR Terminology.
Available at: https://www.preventionweb.net/terminology