Sugar Tech

https://doi.org/10.1007/s12355-022-01236-x

RESEARCH ARTICLE

Obtaining Mathematical Models to Predict the Behaviour

of the Extraction Stage of the Raw Sugar Production Process
Jonathan Serrano1 · Jesús Luis Orozco1 ·
Julio Dueñas2 · Héctor Ramírez3

Received: 17 February 2022 / Accepted: 25 November 2022

© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Sugar Research & Promotion 2022

Abstract Mathematical models are powerful tools for the
operational control of the extraction stage of the raw sugar
manufacturing process. There are no simple mathematical
models to quickly and accurately predict the output variables
of the extraction stage. Most of the mathematical models
developed in this regard have adequate robustness and a high
level of description but includes variables that are not well
known or difficult to determine. In this work, new math-
ematical models are developed and validated through mul-
tiple linear regression, using data obtained through rigorous
experimentation. Applying these mathematical models, the
brix and pol of the mixed juice and the moisture, pol, and
brix of bagasse can be predicted. Through “hidden extrapo-
lation” analysis, the application intervals of the models are
defined. This analysis technique is of great importance and
is not often referred to in works on mathematical modelling
applied to industrial processes. All mathematical models are
applicable for the following conditions: an imbibition water
* Jonathan Serrano
jonathan.serrano1610@gmail.com;
jonathan.serrano@umcc.cu
Jesús Luis Orozco
jesus.luis@umcc.cu
Julio Dueñas
julioariel.duenassantana-ssm@unina.it
Héctor Ramírez
hector.ramirez@umcc.cu
1 using black-box models or phenomenological models. This
Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,
University of Matanzas, Carretera a Varadero km 3.5,
CP 44 740 Matanzas, Cuba
2
Scuola Superiore Meridioale, University of Naples Federico
II, Naples, Italy
3
Faculty of Agronomy, University of Matanzas, Matanzas,
Cuba
temperature between 40 and 80°C, an imbibition rate on
fibre between 80 and 290%, a primary juice brix between
17.6 and 23.0°Bx, and a primary juice pol between 15.1
and 19.2%. The mathematical models are also validated
with experimental data obtained at the industrial level in
another sugar mill, showing adequate predictive capability.
These mathematical models have the advantage and the nov-
elty compared to those referred to by other authors of only
involving variables that are easy to determine and of consid-
ering the effect of the temperature of the imbibition water.
Keywords Mathematical modelling · Maceration ·
Imbibition · Extraction · Sugar mill
Introduction
Modelling of the raw sugar manufacturing process is applied
using different techniques to understand and improve the
performance of the unit operations (Thaval and Kent 2013).
Mathematical models are only valid for describing the pro-
cess if they are adequately complete and accurate over the
required range of variables to be considered (Mann et al.
2015). Furthermore, modelling of the extraction stage is per-
formed with two main objectives: to analyse the operational
performance of the process and to predict the result of modi-
fying the parameters in the milling train (Kent 1997). The
mathematical modelling of a milling train can be developed
second variant is the most widespread.
In this regard, the MILSIM model presented by Rus-
sell in 1968 was the first milling train simulation model
to be widely used in Australia (Thaval and Kent 2012a).
It involves two parameters to model a milling unit: the
reabsorption factor and the imbibition coefficient. This

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modelling did not consider the fibre composition of the
juice. According to Thaval and Kent (2012a), this assump-
tion was “convenient but incorrect”.
Wienese (1990) proposed a model to predict the extrac-
tion behaviour in which the consideration of separation
efficiency was relevant. Kent (2001) developed a model
that predicts fibre flow rate in a milling train. This work
was a significant contribution to the mathematical model-
ling of the extraction stage, although it was limited to this
component (fibre). Thaval and Kent (2012a) made a sig-
nificant advance in this type of modelling using improved
definitions, constituting an extension of the MILSIM
model. Through this model, fibre, brix, and moisture of
all tandem streams can be predicted. This model was
extended by Thaval and Kent (2012b), where impurities,
pol, and other components were novelly considered in
the mathematical modelling. Subsequently, Thaval and
Kent (2015) developed a new empirical relationship to
estimate the parameters involved in the MILEX model. In
this work, the imbibition coefficient was replaced by the
crushing factor and the mixing efficiency. Chantasiriwan
(2013) proposed a model to simulate a milling train, which
included the effect of inhomogeneous mixing between
bagasse and imbibition water.
The research of Rein (1975) and Wienese (1995) was
relevant concerning the use of black-box models for the
extraction stage. Rein (1975) developed modelling based
on multiple linear regression analysis to identify the effect
of sugarcane quality on extraction performance. This study
derived an expression for calculating the correct reduced
extraction that was less dependent of the cane quality.
Moreover, Wienese (1995) proposed a model to predict
the behaviour of the extraction stage, considering only the
inputs and outputs of the stage and ignoring the internal
performance of the milling units. In this work, balances were
performed to predict the fibre, brix, and water content of
the different streams at the outlet of the milling train. The
extraction results were very similar to those obtained from
the corrected reduced extraction (CRE) equation used in
South Africa. This paper contributed to showing the prac-
tical application of black-box models in the mathematical
modelling of the milling train.
Phenomenological models of the extraction stage are very
robust and unquestionably powerful tools for predicting the
milling train performance. These mathematical models have
a more significant connotation when it is necessary to know
the internal performance of the milling units. However, these
mathematical models often require specific information from
the milling train. This information needs extensive experi-
mentation to be determined.
Additionally, some variables are not well known to the
technical staff in the factories and are not fully extrapolated
from one system to another. The mathematical solution of
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Sugar Tech
the model equations can impede immediate operational deci-
sions if the software is not used.
In contrast, black-box models for the extraction stage do
not have this level of detailed description and do not predict
the internal performance of the milling units. However, they
are advantageously more practical. These models are poten-
tially useful in process control to make quick and accurate
operational decisions. Black-box models are also attractive
to some of the technical staff in the factory since they are
more practical and less mathematically complex. Generally,
black-box models require information that is much better
known and easier to determine than phenomenological mod-
els. The choice between one and the other type of math-
ematical model depends mainly on the following aspects:
the purpose of its use, the level of detail and accuracy of the
prediction required and the process information available.
This work aims to obtain predictive mathematical mod-
els for the extraction stage. The use of these models will
facilitate real-time technological control and operational
decisions related to imbibition based on easily measurable
operational variables. The descriptive scope of these math-
ematical models is the prediction of the output streams of the
extraction stage from the milling and imbibition conditions.
The mathematical model also novelly includes the effect of
imbibition water temperature on the extraction performance.
Furthermore, this work provides a statistical modelling
methodology useful for sugar technologists in developing
mathematical tools for process analysis.
Materials
Collection of Experimental Data for Developing
the Mathematical Models
The collection of experimental data for developing the mod-
els was performed in the extraction stage of a sugar mill
in the province of Matanzas during the 2020–2021 harvest
season. This process has a milling train of five mills (milling
units) with a crushing capacity of 150 t/h, where compound
imbibition is applied at the inlet of the fifth mill (Fig. 1). In
some observations, the imbibition rate and imbibition water
temperature in the process were modified to obtain a suitable
range of these variables.
Figure 1 shows the flow diagram of a milling train with
compound imbibition at the inlet of the last milling unit (fifth
milling unit). In this imbibition system, the water is added to
the bagasse at the inlet of the last milling unit. The expressed
juice from the last milling unit is used as imbibition juice for
the penultimate milling unit. This juice is used as imbibition
juice for the third milling unit. The expressed juice from the
third milling unit is used as imbibition juice for the second
milling unit. The expressed juice from the second milling unit
Sugar Tech
Fig. 1  Flow diagram of the
milling train of the sugar mills
studied
(diluted juice) is mixed with the expressed juice from the first
milling unit (primary juice) to form the mixed juice.
Development of Mathematical Modelling
The mathematical fitting of the experimental data was per-
formed in RStudio software (version 1.3.959) using multiple
linear regression. The dependent variables were the brix and
pol of mixed juice and the brix, pol, and moisture of bagasse
(“brix” is the soluble solids content while “pol” is the sucrose
content). The independent variables considered were imbibi-
tion water temperature and imbibition rate on fibre.
The imbibition rate (𝜆) is one of the most significant param-
eters of the extraction stage (Kent 2019). The consideration of
the amount of imbibition water and the sugarcane flow rate in
the term “𝜆” makes mathematical models applicable to other
sugar mills with different crushing capacities.
In the mathematical models to predict the mixed juice brix
and the bagasse brix, the primary juice brix was also consid-
ered as an independent variable. Similarly, the primary juice
pol was included in the mathematical models for predicting
the mixed juice pol and the bagasse pol. These primary juice
variables directly depend on the brix and pol of the cane.
Therefore:
(1)
( )
JMBX = f 𝜆, T, JPBX
(2)
( )
JMPOL = f 𝜆, T, JPPOL
BgW = f (𝜆, T) (3)
(4)
( )
BgBX = f 𝜆, T, JPBX
(5)
( )
BgPOL = f 𝜆, T, JPPOL
where JMBX : Mixed juice brix (°Bx), 𝜆: Imbibition rate on
fibre (%), T∶ Imbibition water temperature (°C), JPBX : Pri-
mary juice brix (°Bx), JMPOL : Mixed juice pol (%), JPPOL :
Primary juice pol (%), BgW : Bagasse moisture (%), BgBX :
Bagasse brix (%), BgPOL : Bagasse pol (%).
In the experiments, the influential parameters on response
variables, which were not considered independent variables
in the mathematical modelling, were kept constant at typi-
cal operating values. These included the extraneous matter
composition of the sugarcane (in the order of 5%), sugarcane
preparation index (in the order of 85%), working pressures
of the milling units (in the order of 21.38 MPa), and mill
speeds (in the order of 3.10 rpm). The sugar mill ensured
stable conditions for these parameters with its technology.
These parameters were within the typical operating values
of the conventional raw sugar production process.
The root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike information
criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC)
were considered to select the best mathematical model for
each case. The “performance” package was used to deter-
mine each indicator (Lüdecke et al. 2021).
Testing Linear Regression Assumptions
The assumption of a linear relationship between the pre-
dictors and the dependent variable was verified by Fisher’s
significance test resulting from the ANOVA in the regression
(Montgomery et al. 2021). Compliance with the assumption
of normal distribution of the residuals was analysed using
the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test with Lilliefors modification
(6" Gross and Ligges 2015). For the same purpose, as a
complementary analysis, the kurtosis and skewness coef-
ficients of the residuals were analysed (Rezaei ) using the
“parameters” package (Lüdecke et al. 2020).
The assumption of homoscedasticity in t) using the
“parameters” package (Lüdecke et al. 2020).
The assumption of homoscedasticity in the residuals
(constant variance) was verified by the Breusch–Pagan test
(Fox and Sanford 2019; Ohno and Suzumura 2021) through
the “lmtest” package (Kuznetsova et al. 2017). The lack of
residuals correlation was tested using the Durbin–Watson
test (Rumánková et al. 2019) with the “car” package (Fox
and Sanford 2019). The nonexistence of highly influential
values was analysed using Cook’s distance (Montgomery
et al. 2021). The nonexistence of multicollinearity among
predictors was analysed based on the variance inflation value
(VIF) using the “car” package.
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Analysis of Goodness of Fit of Regression Models
Fisher’s test was used to determine the goodness of fit of
regression models (Montgomery et al. 2021). A comparison
of the range of the fitted values with the average standard
error was performed as a complementary analysis (Mont-
gomery et al. 2021).
Definition of the Application Interval
of the Mathematical Models
The maximum and minimum values of the independent vari-
ables restrict the application interval of regression models,
but only in the first instance. For this reason, it is necessary
to determine whether, within such intervals, there is suffi-
cient information to analyse the effects among the different
levels of the independent variables. Otherwise, it is possible
to obtain erroneous predictions by hidden extrapolation.
For this purpose, a mesh was established from the combi-
nation of the independent variables involved in each model.
The maximum and minimum values of the independent vari-
ables defined the boundaries of the mesh. Then, the possible
inclusion of the mesh points within the enveloping region or
regressor variable hull (RVH) was analysed (Montgomery
et al. 2021) according to the following expression:
)−1
x−1 X � X x ≤ hmax (6)
(
where X : Predictor matrix used in the development of the
regression model, x : Point constituted for the new prediction
with coordinates 1,x1 , x2 , … xk (k is the number of independ-
ent variables in the model) according to their order in the
matrix X , hmax : Max value of the elements of the diagonal
of the hat matrix.
Validation of Models in Another Sugar Mill
The predictive capability of the mathematical models was
tested in another sugar mill. This validation was performed
based on the information collected during the 2020–2021
harvest season in another sugar mill. This sugar mill has
technological characteristics compatible with the sugar mill
from which the experimental data for developing the math-
ematical models were obtained, such as crushing capac-
ity (150 t/h), the same design and operational parameters
of the milling units, and the same sugarcane preparation
equipment.
The same goodness-of-fit criteria presented in sec-
tion "Analysis of Goodness of Fit of Regression Mod-
els" were used for the mathematical validation. Com-
pliance with Fisher’s goodness-of-fit assumptions was
analysed following the same methodology used for the linear
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regression assumptions in section "Testing Linear Regres-
sion Assumptions".
Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Models
Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the predic-
tion of the dependent variables according to the variation of
the independent terms in the mathematical models. For this
purpose, a central point was established. The central point
was defined by an imbibition rate of 200% on fibre, an imbi-
bition water temperature of 60°C, and a primary juice with
19°Bx and 16% of pol. Changes in the dependent variables
were evaluated for deviations in the independent variables
of 5, 10, and 15% from this central point.
Analysis of Extraction Behaviour from Regression
Models
A case study was defined for extraction analysis in which
imbibition rate and imbibition water temperature were the
independent variables. The dependent variables were brix
and pol extraction, which were determined as follows:
JMBX ⋅ JM
EBX = ⋅ 100% (7)
CMBX ⋅ CM
JMPOL ⋅ JM
EPOL = ⋅ 100% (8)
CMPOL ⋅ CM
where EBX : Brix extraction (%), JM: Mixed juice flow rate
(t/h), CMBX : Sugarcane brix (%), CM: Sugarcane flow rate
(t/h), EPOL : Pol extraction (%), CMPOL : Sugarcane pol (%).
The variables involved in the above expressions were
determined using the mathematical models of regression
and mass balances according to the conditions established
for the case study.
Results
Collection of Experimental Data
A total of 106 observations of the process variables were
used to develop the mathematical models. In the experimen-
tal data, there were observations with four replicates for the
internal estimation of the variance of the experimental error
in Fisher’s goodness-of-fit test. During the experiments, the
imbibition rate varied from 57 to 329% on fibre with a vari-
ation coefficient (CV) of 36.86%. The imbibition water tem-
perature varied from 32 to 86°C (CV: 22.91%), the primary
juice brix varied from 17.6 to 23.5°Bx (CV: 6.58%), and the
primary juice pol varied from 15.01 to 20.30% (CV: 6.61%).
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The sample size was adequate to perform the linear
regression because it presented a ratio of the number of
observations per number of predictors much higher than that
referred to by several authors as a general criterion (Meyers
et al. 2016; Harrell 2015). This ratio for the bagasse moisture
model was 53.5, while for the other mathematical models,
it was 35.7.
Development of Mathematical Modelling
The dispersion of mixed juice brix with the imbibition rate
showed a linear dependence between them. Similar trends
appeared for the mixed juice pol and bagasse moisture.
There were no specific trends in these dependent variables
with the rest of the independent variables. From these trends,
linear regression was performed using the following math-
ematical structures:
JMBX = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ⋅ JPBX + 𝛽2 ⋅ 𝜆 + 𝛽3 ⋅ T
Therefore, the results shown in Table 1 are considered final
in these cases.
In the brix and pol of bagasse models, the nonlinear trend
was observed among these variables and the imbibition
water rate. Therefore, the linear regression was performed
through linearised mathematical structures. The model with
the lowest RMSE, AIC, and BIC was selected as the best
mathematical model in each case.
A low RMSE value indicates a better fit in the math-
ematical models (Gharekhani et al. 2021; Montgomery et al.
2021). The Akaike information criterion and the Bayesian
information criterion analyse the prediction in function of
the complexity of the mathematical model (principle of par-
simony). These indicators penalise the increase of param-
eters in linear regression models (Mullor et al. 2019). It is
desirable that the model has a low value of AIC (Suresh and
Priya 2011) and BIC (Ali et al. 2018). According to these
criteria, the following mathematical structures were the most
(9) appropriate:

(12)
( )
JMPOL = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ⋅ JPPOL + 𝛽2 ⋅ 𝜆 + 𝛽3 ⋅ T (10) ln BgBX = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ⋅ 𝜆 + 𝛽2 ⋅ T + 𝛽3 ⋅ JPBX

BgW = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ⋅ 𝜆 + 𝛽2 ⋅ T (11) (13)

where 𝛽0 , 𝛽1 , 𝛽2 , 𝛽3: Regression coefficients.
The results of these regression analyses are shown in
Table 1. The independent variables are significant in all
cases since the P-value of each of them is lower than the
significance level at a 95% confidence level. The multiple
linear regression is significant (P-value less than 0.05), indi-
cating a linear dependence of each dependent variable with
the independent variables of the mathematical models. The
determination coefficients indicate that more than 80% of the
observed variability is explained in each case.
The effect of including the interaction between imbibition
water temperature and imbibition water rate as an independ-
ent variable in the mathematical modelling was analysed.
From this analysis, it turned out that this inclusion was not
significant for the mathematical fit of the experimental data.
( )
ln BgPOL = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 ⋅ ln (𝜆) + 𝛽2 ⋅ T + 𝛽3 ⋅ JPPOL
The results of these regression analyses are shown in
Table 2. The independent terms and the linear regression
are significant since the P-value is less than 0.05 at a 95%
confidence level in each case. The determination coefficients
indicate that more than 80% of the observed variability is
explained. Furthermore, in the linear regression analysis, the
inclusion of the effect between imbibition water temperature
and imbibition rate as an independent variable was not sig-
nificant. Then, the mathematical models resulting from the
linear regression were:
JMBX = 0.858 ⋅ JPBX − 0.01872 ⋅ 𝜆 + 0.014 ⋅ T + 0.876
(14)
JMPOL = 0.843 ⋅ JPPOL − 0.01744 ⋅ 𝜆 + 0.011 ⋅ T + 1.592
(15)

Table 1  ANOVA for the mathematical models of the mixed juice brix, mixed juice pol, and bagasse moisture
Equation (9) Equation (10) Equation (11)
(Mixed juice brix) (Mixed juice pol ) (Bagasse moisture)
Coefficient Estimated P-value Coefficient Estimated P-value Coefficient Estimated P-value

Intercept 0.876 0.222 Intercept 1.592 0.128 Intercept 48.156 < 2e−16
T 0.014 9.84e−06 T 0.011 0.01 T −0.010 8.82e−05
𝜆 −0.01872 < 2e−16 λ −0.01744 < 2e−16 λ 0.01043 < 2e−16
JPBX 0.858 < 2e−16 JPPOL 0.843 < 2e−16
P-value < 2e−16 P-value < 2.2e−16 P-value < 2.2e−16
R2 adjusted 0.9455 R2adjusted 0.872 R2adjusted 0.8014

where T Imbibition water temperature (°C), 𝜆 Imbition rate on fibre(%), JPBX Primary juice brix (°Bx), JPPOL Primary juice pol (%)

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Table 2  ANOVA for the Equation (12) Equation (13)

mathematical models of the (Bagasse brix) (Bagasse pol)
bagasse brix and bagasse pol
Coefficient Estimated P-value Coefficient Estimated P-value

Intercept 1.620 1.310e − 07 Intercept 3.8363 0.006

𝜆 − 0.00425 < 2e − 16 T − 0.002 0.024
JPBX 0.040 0.000 ln(𝜆) − 0.683 < 2.2e − 16
T − 0.002 0.0255 JPPOL 0.039 0.005
P-value < 2.2e − 16 P-value < 2.2e − 16
R2 adjusted 0.822 R2 adjusted 0.8015

where T Imbibition water temperature (°C), 𝜆 Imbition rate on fibre (%), JPBX Primary juice brix (°Bx),
JPPOL Primary juice pol (%)

than the level of significance (0.05), indicating that the resid-

BgW = 48.156 + 0.01043 ⋅ 𝜆 − 0.010 ⋅ T
( )
BgBX = EXP 1.620 − 0.00425 ⋅ 𝜆 − 0.002 ⋅ T + 0.040 ⋅ JPBX
( )
BgPOL = EXP 3.8363 − 0.683 ⋅ ln𝜆 − 0.002 ⋅ T + 0.039 ⋅ JPPOL
An important result obtained from the linear regression is
the significance of imbibition water temperature as an inde-
pendent variable. The ANOVA of linear regression (Tables 1
and 2) indicates that the imbibition water temperature influ-
ences the dependent variables. This result provides new sta-
tistical evidence to better understand the operational effect
of imbibition water temperature.
Few researchers analyse the influence of imbibition water
temperature on the operational variables of a milling train
from statistical tests. Among these, one of the most impor-
tant is the work of Kent (2011). As this author refers, the
effect of imbibition water temperature on extraction has been
difficult to determine, and there is still much to research.
(16)
uals follow a normal distribution (Priego and Palmer 2018).
This result also corresponds to the kurtosis and skewness
coefficients, which are between − 2 and 2 (Sejati et al. 2019).
(17) The assumption of homoscedasticity is validated since the
P-value of the Breusch–Pagan test for each case is greater
(18) than the significance level (Hernández-Chover et al. 2019).
The residuals are not autocorrelated since the P-value of the
Durbin–Watson test is greater than 0.05 in all cases. This
result indicates that the influential parameters on the depend-
ent variables were kept under control or considered in the
mathematical modelling.
In all cases, the VIF is less than 5, demonstrating the
absence of multicollinearity among the predictors (Mont-
gomery and Runger 2018). This result ensures that the
predictors are independent of each other. No outliers are
detected in any case because Cook’s distance of the most
influential observations is less than one (Liu and Smith
2020; Maindonald and Braun 2010).
Analysis of the Goodness of Fit of Mathematical Models

Analysis of Compliance with the Assumptions
of the Linear Regression
The assumption of linearity is satisfied from the Fisher sta-
tistic of significance tests since the P-value of the multiple
linear regression in each case is less than 0.05 (Tables 1 and
2). The P-value of the Lilliefors test for all models is greater
Table 3 shows the results of the goodness-of-fit tests. Since
the calculated Fisher statistic is lower than the tabulated
value, it is established that there is no loss of goodness of
fit due to prediction errors. This result indicates that there
are no significant differences between the experimental
error estimates and the loss-of-fit error estimates. In turn,
the range of fitted values is larger than the average standard

Table 3  Results of goodness- Mathematical model F-calculated (Fo) F-tabulated (Ft) Range Average Ratio (%)
of-fit tests in the development of standard error
mathematical models
Mixed juice brix 0.965 4.405 8.213 0.161 5 103.093
Mixed juice pol 0.533 4.405 7.620 0.310 2 457.008
Bagasse moisture 0.711 4.405 2.915 0.119 2 452.410
Bagasse brix 0.270 4.405 1.288 0.091 1 415.455
Bagasse pol 1.683 4.405 1.278 0.043 2 956.322

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error. The previous results indicate that the mathematical
models present adequate goodness of fit (Montgomery et al.
2021).
Definition of the Range of Application of Mathematical
Models
Hidden extrapolation was detected in the mesh bounded by
the max and min values of the independent variables since
expression 6 was not satisfied. For this reason, the mesh was
further bounded until the expression 6 was satisfied. The
result was the intervals in whose domain each model can be
applied without incurring hidden extrapolation (Table 4).
Validation of the Mathematical Models in Another
Sugar Mill
A total of 45 observations of the operational variables were
obtained for the mathematical model validation in another
sugar mill. In the experimental data, there were observations
with five replicates for the internal estimation of the variance
of the experimental error in Fisher’s goodness-of-fit test.
During the experiments, the imbibition rate varied between
148 and 247% on fibre (CV: 11.50%). The imbibition water
temperature varied from 38 to 82°C (CV: 16.46%). The pri-
mary juice brix varied between 21.70 and 17.80°Bx (CV:
5.26%). The primary juice pol varied from 18.23 to 5.16%
(CV: 4.36%).
Table 5 shows the results of the goodness-of-fit criteria
of the validation analysis. The calculated Fisher statistic is
lower than the tabulated Fisher statistic in all cases, indicat-
ing adequate goodness of fit (Montgomery et al. 2021).
Furthermore, the range of fitted values is large relative to
their average estimated standard error (Montgomery et al.
2021). The assumptions of Fisher’s goodness-of-fit test
were validated by the same tests used in section "Analy-
sis of Compliance with the Assumptions of the Linear
Regression".
The previous results demonstrate the predictive power of
mathematical models in a different process than the one used
for their development.
Sensitivity Analysis of Mathematical Models
Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the influ-
ence of each independent variable on the prediction of the
dependent variable. Figure 2 shows the sensitivity plot for
the mixed juice brix and bagasse brix.
Graph A in Fig. 2 shows that an increase in the imbibition
rate decreases the mixed juice brix. This trend is valid and
justifies the mathematical sign of the regression coefficient
of the imbibition rate (Eq. 14). Similar is the effect of vary-
ing the imbibition water temperature but less significant. The
trend shown for the effect of varying the primary juice brix
is correct and validates the positive sign of its regression
coefficient (Eq. 14). A higher primary juice brix leads to a
higher mixed juice brix at the same imbibition rate. Also,
graph A (Fig. 2) shows that the variation of primary juice
brix has the greatest influence on the response. The mixed
juice is composed of primary and diluted juice. The primary
juice has much more flow rate and brix, which implies that
this juice has a bigger influence on the brix of the mixed
juice than the diluted juice due to the effect of mixing.

Table 4  Application range of Mathematical model Imbibition water Imbibition rate Primary juice Primary juice pol (%)
the mathematical models temperature (°C) on fibre (%) brix (°Bx)

Mixed juice brix 32–86 57–300 17.6–23.0 –

Mixed juice pol 40–80 57–290 – 15.01–19.50
Bagasse brix 32–86 57–300 17.6–23.0 –
Bagasse pol 40–80 80–290 – 15.10–19.24
Bagasse moisture 40–86 80–290 – –
All mathematical models 40–80 80–290 17.6–23.0 15.10–19.24

Table 5  Results of the Mathematical model F-calculated F-tabulate (Ft) Range Average stand- Ratio (%)
goodness-of-fit tests in the (Fo) ard error
validation of the mathematical
models Mixed juice brix 1.81 4.47 3.784 0.460 821.929
Mixed juice pol 0.79 4.47 3.173 0.700 453.053
Bagasse moisture 0.63 4.47 1.252 0.486 258.171
Bagasse brix 0.63 4.47 0.608 0.061 698.779
Bagasse pol 1.33 4.47 0.427 0.027 1592.887

13

Fig. 2  Effect of variation of
independent terms on the mixed
juice brix (A) and the bagasse
brix (B)
In the case of bagasse brix, it is shown in graph B (Fig. 2)
that an increase in primary juice brix causes a significant
increase in this variable. This behaviour is correct because
a higher brix of the cane juice leads to a higher brix in the
residual juice of bagasse (at the same imbibition rate). The
positive sign of the regression coefficient of the primary
juice brix is validated by this behaviour (Eq. 17).
The effect of the imbibition rate has a bigger influence
than the brix of the primary juice, although it is in the oppo-
site direction. This behaviour is because a higher imbibition
rate dilutes the bagasse juice more and causes its brix to be
lower. This effect is more influential for the brix of bagasse
than for the brix of the mixed juice. The behaviour shown
in Fig. 3 for the case of mixed juice pol and bagasse pol is
analogous to the one explained above for brix in Fig. 2.
Figure 4 shows the effect of the imbibition water tem-
perature and imbibition rate on the bagasse moisture. This
graph shows that increasing the imbibition water tempera-
ture decreases the bagasse moisture. For this reason, the
regression coefficient of the imbibition water temperature
has a negative sign (Eq. 16). This behaviour is because a
higher imbibition water temperature increases the evapora-
tion of the water contained in the bagasse, which decreases
the bagasse moisture (Kent 2011). Lloyd et al. (2010) report
that the use of cold water can increase bagasse moisture by
5% more than with hot water.
Figure 4 shows that the imbibition rate influences bagasse
moisture more than the temperature of the imbibition water.
This figure also shows that a higher imbibition rate leads to
higher bagasse moisture. This trend is correct and validates
13
Sugar Tech
the positive sign of the regression coefficient of the imbibi-
tion rate in Eq. (16).
Analysis of Extraction Behaviour Under Different
Operational Conditions of Imbibition
Figure 5 shows the extraction behaviour under differ-
ent operational conditions of imbibition in the case study
according to the prediction of the mathematical models. Brix
extraction refers to the soluble solids in the cane juice that
are transferred to the mixed juice. This value is always lower
than the pol (sucrose) extraction because a part of the non-
sucrose is more difficult to extract than sucrose (Rein 2007).
These variables are parameters of industrial performance for
the extraction stage.
The first graph shows an almost linear trend of brix
extraction for an imbibition rate of 100–200% on fibre.
Above these values, the extraction rate decreases signifi-
cantly, showing a trend that deviates slightly from linear
behaviour. This behaviour corresponds to that reported
by several authors. According to Hugot (2014), extraction
increases very rapidly when the imbibition rate varies from
0 to 100% on fibre, still quite rapidly from 100 to 200% on
fibre and more slowly above 200% on fibre, while no extrac-
tion advantage is obtained above 300% on fibre. Rein (2007)
states that extraction continues to increase rapidly as the
imbibition rate increases to 250–280% on fibre. Above these
values, the sucrose extraction rate slows down, although sig-
nificant gains in extraction can be obtained up to 350% on
Sugar Tech
Fig. 3  Effect of variation of
independent terms on the mixed
juice pol (A) and the bagasse
pol (B)
Fig. 4  Effect of imbibition water temperature and imbibition rate on
the bagasse moisture
fibre (Rein 2007). Kulkarni (1996) indicates that the extrac-
tion rate decreases from 200 to 250% on fibre.
The trend shown in the first graph of Fig. 5 is similar to
that obtained by Wienese (1990) through his mathematical
models. The second graph in Fig. 5 shows that the imbibi-
tion water temperature has little effect on brix and sucrose
extraction, although it influences brix extraction more than
sucrose extraction. Christodoulou (2003) reports that an
increase in temperature from 75 to 80°C improves extrac-
tion by 0.2%, which also validates the behaviour described in
Fig. 5. Hugot (2014) refers that in practice, a slight increase
in the extraction is verified at high imbibition water tem-
peratures, which is sometimes difficult to quantify and often
insignificant.
The results provided by the case study also validate the
correct prediction of the mathematical models obtained.
This case study also demonstrates that it is possible to define
all outflows from the extraction stage using mathematical
models combined with mass balances.
Conclusions
According to the Fisher’s goodness-of-fit test, the mathemat-
ical models fit the experimental data adequately. They can
be used as mathematical models in the operational decisions
of the extraction stage, which gives them a great practical
utility in the control of this process. Mathematical models
favourably involve variables commonly used in the techno-
logical process. A novel feature of the mathematical models
is considering the effect of the imbibition water temperature
on extraction stage variables. All mathematical models are
applicable for the following conditions: an imbibition water
temperature between 40 and 80°C, an imbibition rate on
fibre between 80 and 290%, a primary juice brix between
17.6 and 23.0°Bx, and a primary juice pol between 15.1
and 19.2%. Moreover, the mathematical models showed
adequate goodness of fit with experimental data obtained in
another sugar mill, which validates their predictive power.
13

Fig. 5  Behaviour of brix and
sucrose extraction in function of
the imbibition rate (A) and the
imbibition water temperature
(B)
These can be used to simulate the extraction behaviour and
determine all the output streams of the extraction stage.
Acknowledgements The authors thank the important support given
by Asociación de Técnicos Azucareros de Cuba (ATAC)
Author Contribution All authors contributed to the conception
and design of the study. Data collection was performed by JS, JLO,
and HLR. The mathematical processing of the experimental data for
developing the mathematical models was carried out by all authors.
The analysis of the results was performed by JS and JLO. The manu-
script was written by JS and JAD. All authors read and approved the
final manuscript.
Declarations
Conflict of interest None.
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