The 27th Annual Conference of HKSTAM 2024

th
The 19 Jiangsu – Hong Kong Forum on Mechanics and Its Application

Prediction of axial displacement of immersed

tunnels joints using statistical models

Sige Yang#1, Wei Yan1 and Wanhuan Zhou*1

1
State Key Laboratory of Internet of Things for Smart City and Department of Civil and Environmental
Engineering, University of Macau, Macau, China

*Corresponding author: hannahzhou@um.edu.mo

#
Presenter: mc25166@um.edu.mo

Abstract: Predicting axial displacement in immersed tunnels, particularly at joints in the

Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge, is crucial. This analysis holds paramount significance for
ensuring the structure's safety and sustainable operation. Previous research has identified
three primary contributors to the axial displacement of immersed tunnel joints: a minor
influence from water level, a moderate impact from structural temperature (Yan et al 2023),
and time-dependent error. To address this, our study proposes three distinct statistical models
to characterize the intricate relationships among tunnel axial displacement and physical
parameters. The Ridge Regression Method is employed to derive an optimal combination of
coefficients for the corresponding statistical models, and three different models are compared
regarding their accuracy and generalization for all joints. Additionally, we explore the
sensitivity of the statistical model parameters. Correlation analyses between various physical
features and the parameters of the respective statistical models are also conducted. This
research contributes to the advancement of our understanding of immersed tunnel behaviour
and enhances the predictive capabilities crucial for ensuring the structural integrity and
longevity of such critical infrastructure projects.

.
Figure 1. Sensitivity Analysis for Selected Joints’ Coefficient(alpha) Range.

Acknowledgements
The authors wish to thank Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of
China (Grant No. 2019YFB1600700), Guangdong Provincial Department of Science and
Technology (Grant No. 2019B111106001), Science and Technology Development Fund,
Macau SAR (File nos. 0056/2023/RIB2; 001/2024/SKL)

References
Wei Yan, Yu Yan, Ping Shen, and Wan-Huan Zhou (2023), “A hybrid physical data informed DNN in axial
displacement prediction of immersed tunnel joint,” Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for
Engineered Systems and Geohazards, 17:1, 169-180

May 4, 2024, Hong Kong