Accepted Manuscript

Changes of the relationship between spring sand/dust frequency

and large-scale atmospheric circulation

Mingzhu Yang, Xiaying Zhu, Hongxing Pan, Wanxiu Ai, Wenling

Song, Yuepeng Pan

PII: S0169-8095(18)30868-8
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.004
Reference: ATMOS 4540
To appear in: Atmospheric Research
Received date: 8 July 2018
Revised date: 16 March 2019
Accepted date: 7 April 2019

Please cite this article as: M. Yang, X. Zhu, H. Pan, et al., Changes of the relationship
between spring sand/dust frequency and large-scale atmospheric circulation, Atmospheric
Research, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2019.04.004

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 ACCEPTED MANUSCRIPT

Changes of the Relationship between Spring

Sand/Dust Frequency and Large-scale Atmospheric
Circulation
a a* b a a c*
Mingzhu Yang , Xiaying Zhu , Hongxing Pan , Wanxiu Ai , Wenling Song and Yuepeng Pan

a
National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

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b
State Forestry and Grassland Administration, Beijing 100714, China

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c
State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry

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(LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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* Corresponding authors: zhuxy@cma.gov.cn (X. Zhu); panyuepeng@mail.iap.ac.cn (Y.Pan).
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Abstract: Sand/dust occurrences are one of major disasters in arid and semi-arid areas. Understanding

its time evolution as well as the impact factors is crucial for policy makers to protect human fro m
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health and economic losses. In this paper, we investigate the features of spring sand/dust frequency

during 1961-2016 based on 201 surface meteorological stations in northern Ch ina, which are div ided
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into four regions as Xinjiang, No rthwest China, No rth China, and Northeast China according to the

spatial distribution of sand/dust frequency. Although the regional mean sand/dust frequency exhibits a
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general declin ing trend in the last 56 years, it shows fluctuations with the maximu m occurrence in the
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1970s and the min imu m in the 2010s, and abrupt changes can be found in the late 1980s by the Lepage

test. We choose 1961-1988 as the active sand/dust period and 1989-2016 as the inactive sand/dust

period. Apparent differences are found between these two epochs in the large-scale atmospheric

circulat ions. The geopotential height over Mongolia and Inner Mongolia of Ch ina at mid -and lo wer

troposphere became much h igher, and the Asian polar vortex weakened and shrank noticeably in the

inactive sand/dust period. For 1961-1988, a merid ional dipole pattern of significant correlation in

heights at mid-and lo wer levels was dominant over the northeastern Eurasian continent, while for

1989-2016, sand/dust frequency seems to have much closer relationship with local circulat ion and a
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zonal dipole structure at lower troposphere dominated over China. The relat ionship between sand/dust

frequency and the 850 hPa vort icity over Mongolia was strengthened after the late 1980s for the

western areas, but that was weakened for the eastern areas of northern China. Besides, the intensity of

Asian polar vortex at 500 hPa had higher correlat ion with sand/dust frequency during 1989-2016

particularly for Northwest Ch ina. All these findings are important to refine reliable models for

short-term climate prediction of sand/dust occurrence in East Asia.

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Keywords: sand/dust frequency; abrupt change; inter-decadal variation; atmospheric circulation.

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1. Introduction
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Sand/dust storm events are a disastrous weather, which brings harmful impacts on

environment and human activities (Zhou et al., 1996). The number of sand/dust storm occurrences

is greatest in spring (March-May) over most of northern China, accounting for approximately
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more than half of the annual number (Li and Zhai, 2003; Wang et al., 2005; Wong et al., 2015).

Many previous studies have shown that the spring sand/dust storm occurrence in northern China
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exhibits a dominant deceasing trend over the last decades, which is opposite to the increasing of

sand/dust events in Mongolia (Natsagdorj et al., 2003). The decline of surface wind speed and
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number of days with gale over China and upward trend of vegetation cover of the source areas
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(Zhao et al., 2004; Xu et al., 2006; Kang et al., 2016; Wang et al., 2018) are directly responsible

for the decease of sand/dust storms in northern China. Indirectly, there have been significant
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decreasing trend in the frequency of occurrence and the intensity of the Mongolian cyclones,
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near-surface cold highs and kinetic energy over northern China and Mongolia (Gong et al., 2006).

That is closely associated with the prominent warming in the region around Lake Baikal which

induces a weakening of the westerly jet stream and the atmospheric baroclinicity in northern

China and Mongolian regions (Qian et al., 2002; Zhu et al., 2008). Besides, the Asian polar vortex,

which is a good indicator of the number of days with gale, has a weakening trend (Zhao et al.,

2004). However, the Arctic oscillation (AO) has no such long-term trend, and it exerts a

remarkable influence on interannual variations of weather disturbances and consequently, impacts

the dust storm activities (Gong et al., 2006).

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The spring sand/dust storm is not only a meteorological disaster, but also an important signal

of deterioration of the ecological environment. The more skillful prediction of spring sand/dust

storm frequency provided to the government, the more property measurements would be taken to

reduce the impacts of the disaster. Previous studies have shown that the reasons responsible for the

variations of sand/dust storm occurrence are complex as they vary for different areas and in

different period (Lim and Chun, 2006; Guan et al., 2017; Rashki et al., 2017, 2018), so it’s very

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hard to make a skillful sand/dust storm occurrence prediction. Nevertheless the two main factors

affecting sand/dust storm frequency, surface conditions and surface winds, both are closely related

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to global and regional atmospheric circulations, which give us a hint, maybe establish a

relationship between the sand/dust storm frequency and circulation patterns for different areas and

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in different period can improve our understanding of sand/dust storm and enhance our ability to

forecast it. In this paper, we attempt to reveal the inter-decadal variation in the characteristics of
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large-scale atmospheric circulation and its relationship with sand/dust storm frequency for

different regions in northern China. The results will provide a more powerful scientific basis and
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reference for the forecasting of sand/dust storm frequency.

2. Material and methods

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2.1 Datasets
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The sand/dust days used in this study are retrieved from the weather observations at 746

stations across the mainland China during 1951-2016 provided by the National Meteorological
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Information Center, China Meteorological Administration (CMA). The sand/dust events are
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divided into three groups according to different visibility level (i) floating dust due to upwind

remote sources with visibility below 10 km, (ii) blowing sand, which is from local sources with

visibility between 1 and 10 km and, (iii) sand and dust storm resulting from strong turbulent wind

systems entraining particles of dust into the air, reducing the visibility below 1 km (Qian et al.,

2004; Xiao et al., 2008). The days of sand/dust events for one site were divided according to a

daily interval of 24 h from 20:00 (Beijing local time BLT). If a sand/dust event lasts past 20:00

BLT, two days are counted. On the other hand, if there are several events of sand/dust in a day, it is

marked as 1 day only. Therefore, a sand/dust day in this study means a day with at least one
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sand/dust event of any category occurring. Besides sand/dust, there are many other phenomena

can reduce visibility, such as fog, smoke screen, haze, and blowing snow and so on. The observers

would distinguish and record them on the observation data in strict accordance with meteorology

observation criterion. In this paper we carefully select sand/dust events and the other low visibility

events are excluded. According to statistical analyses, the quality of station data prior to the 1960s

is poor with missing rate of visibility as high as to 79.9% at the beginning of 1950s. Therefore, a

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data set of sand/dust days was selected from 201 stations for 1961-2016 without any missing value.

Gong et al. (2006) also pointed out that the variations of the number of sand/dust storm days and

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sand/dust storm events are fairly consistent after the 1960s but there are remarkable differences in

the early period.

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In order to investigate the atmospheric circulation associated with the regime shift of the

sand/dust frequency, monthly geopotential height (GH) from 1000 to 100 hPa, sea level pressure
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(SLP) and 850 hPa horizontal winds on a 2.5º×2.5ºgrid is obtained for 1961-2016 from the

National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research
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(NCAR) reanalysis (Kalnay et al., 1996). Besides, the indices of intensity and area of Asian polar

vortex are achieved from the regular climate data released by CMA, and the AO index is defined
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as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) of spring SLP anomalies from 20 ºN to the Arctic

Pole (Thompson and Wallace, 1998).

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2.2 Statistical methods

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One spring sand/dust frequency of a station is the total sand/dust days of the spring. The
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regional means of spring sand/dust frequency are computed arithmetically without weights, since
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the stations, selected as many as possible without missed measurements during 1961-2016, are

distributed quite homogeneously.

Regression method is used to test the linear trend of the regional mean sand/dust frequency

for the 56 years (Xiao et al., 2008). Make the time series of the number of sand/dust days as the

linear regression function:

Y = aT + b,

where a is the slope value for the time change. The rate of trend is reflected by the absolute value

of a. If a>0, Y will increase with the increase of T; and if a<0, Y will decrease with the increase of
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T.

In this paper, the time series of the regional mean sand/dust frequency for four regions were

evaluated for statistically significant changes by using the Lepage test, which is a nonparametric

two-sample test for significant differences between two samples, even if the distributions of the

parent populations are unknown (Lepage, 1971). The Lepage test, which has few underlying

assumptions, can detect changes in the mean and in the variance of a variable through time. It has

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been shown to be more statistically powerful than other similar tests, such as the

Wilcoxon-Man-Whitney test, the Student’s t test, and the Kuiper test (Hirakawa, 1974). The

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Lepage test statistic (HK) is calculated as follows:
1 1
[∑2𝑛
𝑖=1 𝑖𝑠𝑖 − 2 𝑛1 (2𝑛 + 1)]
2
[∑𝑛𝑖=1 𝑖𝑠𝑖 − ∑2𝑛
𝑖=𝑛 1+1(2𝑛 − 𝑖 + 1)𝑠𝑖 − 4 𝑛1 (2𝑛 + 2)]
2

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HK = 1 + 𝑛 1𝑛 2(2𝑛−2)(2𝑛+2) ,
𝑛 𝑛 (2𝑛 + 1)
12 1 2 48 ((2𝑛−1)

where 𝑛1 and 𝑛2 are sample sizes of samp les 𝑦1 and 𝑦2 respectively; 𝑛1 = 𝑛2 = 𝑛 ; 𝑠𝑖 = 1

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when the ith record in a combined sample of ranked values of samples 𝑦1 and 𝑦2 belongs to the

sample 𝑦1 , and 𝑠𝑖 = 0 when it belongs to the sample 𝑦2 . When HK exceeds 5.991 or 9.21, the
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two samples are statistically different at a confidence level of 95% or 99%, respectively.

Data for n years previous to a specified year Yc (sample y1) is compared to data for year Yc
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plus the n-1 years following year Yc (sample y2). The Yc is moved successively at 1-year

increments along the time series, and the Lepage test is conducted for each year Yc. Here, we
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choose period n=10 to test the inter-decadal changes.

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In this study, the climate mean ( x ) is the average value from 1961 to 2016, the anomalies

are the departures from the climate mean ( xi  x ). The accumulated anomalies ( x̂t ) of some
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indices of impact factors are computed as follows:

t
xˆt   ( xi  x ) t=1,2,....,n
i 1

The going up or down slope of x̂t makes apparent the alternation between higher and lower

periods (Goikoetxea et al., 2009).

Additionally, in order to investigate the change in relationship between the sand/dust

frequency and impact factors, simple linear regression and correlation analyses are performed

between the regional mean sand/dust frequency and geopotential height at different level as well
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as sea level pressure for each grid (2.5º×2.5º) (Zou et al., 2003, Ding et al., 2018).

3. Results

3.1 Regional division of sand/dust frequency

The 56-year averages of sand/dust days (Fig. 1a) show that sand/dust events mainly occur in

the area to the north of the Yangtze River and decrease from west to east. Taklamakan Desert and

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its surroundings in the south of Xinjiang is the highest frequency area in China with more than 30

sand/dust days. All the three categories of sand/dust events especially the floating dust occur most

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frequently in this area (Xu et al., 2006). The second highest frequency area is the western Inner

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Mongolia with more than 20 sand/dust days. These two areas, mainly covered by semi-desert or

desert, are the dominant sources of eolian sand/dust raised from china (Sun et al., 2001). The
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occurrences of sand/dust events are much fewer in North and Northeast China than that in the

western areas, mostly 5-10 days. According to the above spatial characteristics, the northern China
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susceptible to sand/dust is divided into four regions (Fig. 1b) as the Xinjiang area (39 stations),

Northwest China (67 stations), North China (53 stations), and Northeast China (42 stations),

which is similar to Wu and Ren (2007).

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Fig. 1. (a) Distribution of the spring sand/dust frequency averaged for 1961-2016 across China, and (b) the
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selected stations in different regions prone to sand/dust occurrences in northern China (purple for Xinjiang, green
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for Northwest China, red for North China, and blue for Northeast China).

3.2 Temporal variability of the regional mean sand/dust frequency

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3.2.1 Linear trend

The regional mean sand/dust frequency in each of the four reg ions exhibits an obvious decreasing

trend significant above the 99.9% confidence level, though there is evident increase in the 2000s (Fig.

2). That is similar to the condition of spring sand/dust storm days (Gong et al., 2006). However,

the rate of decrease varies among four regions. The sand/dust days decrease most in Northwest

China and least in Northeast China , as 4 and 1.3 d per decade, respectively (Table 1).
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Fig. 2. Time sequence of the regional mean sand/dust frequency in spring for different regions ( line with solid

circle) and the linear trends (solid line): (a) Xinjiang, (b) Northwest China, (c) North China, (d) Northeast China.

(The dashed lines indicate the average of 1961-2016, 1961-1988 and 1989-2016, respectively)

Table 1. The decreasing rate for 1961-2016 and means of every decade of the regional mean sand/dust frequency

for Xinjiang (XJ), Northwest China (NWC), North China (NC), Northeast China (NEC).

Decline rate M ean (unit: d)

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(unit: d/decade) 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

XJ 2.8 24.3 29.5 23.9 18.1 15.4 14.7

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NWC 4.0 20.1 25.6 15.8 9.8 7.9 4.5

NC 2.4 12.2 14.4 8.0 3.7 4.8 2.6

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NEC 1.3 7.0 7.8 4.1 1.8 3.5 1.4
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3.2.2 Abrupt changes

Although the sand/dust days have an overall decreasing trend for all four regions, they are skewed
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with the maximu m occurring in the 1970s and the minimu m in the 2010s (Tab le 1). A sharp decrease

happens in the 1980s when the large values of the Lepage statistic HK are dominant (Fig.3). Generally,

common extremes of HK can be found in 1988 for Xinjiang and Northwest China, and in 1989 for
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North China and Northeast China. Also, the Lepage test for the time series of sand/dust days averaged

by the whole northern China shows four equal peaks in 1984, 1985, 1988, and 1989 (figures not
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shown). The inter-annual variat ion of sand/dust frequency shows remarkable decline around 1989

(Fig.2). In addition, the curves of linear trend and climatology intersect around 1989. Therefore, we
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choose 1961-1988 as active sand/dust period and 1989-2016 as inactive sand/dust period. It can be seen
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that the mean sand/dust frequency after the late 1980s is much smaller than before for each region.

Fig. 3. Sliding Lepage statistics HK of the regional mean sand/dust frequency for (a) Xinjiang, (b) Northwest

China, (c) North China, (d) Northeast China (The dash line is the critical value for the confidence level of 99%).

3.3 Changes of the impact largescale atmospheric circulation

Spatial patterns of the inter-decadal change in the 500 hPa geopotential height for spring are

displayed in Fig. 4a. It is noteworthy that significant positive anomalies in the eastern Eurasian
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continent and western North America from low to high latitudes are found after the late 1980s.

The changes in SLP (Fig. 4b) are similar to 500 hPa geopotential, and in height at other lower

levels are also similar and s ignificant (figures not shown) except that the scope shrinks southward

with the lapse of altitude. However, in the upper troposphere, the positive center near the Baikal

moves northward slightly, and that over Alaska maintains (figures not shown), which indicates

that the Arctic polar vortex in As ian (60º-150ºE) and Pacific (150ºE-120ºW) portions weakened

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evidently in the inactive sand/dust period. Fig. 5 shows the accumulated anomalies of intensity

index and area index of polar vortex at 500 hPa for spring. The curves of accumulated anomalies

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of area index have three peaks in the mid-1970s, the end of 1980s, and the mid-1990s, respectively,

suggesting the characteristic of downward spiral of the indexes. The maximum peak in the late

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1980s demonstrates that the Asian polar vortex weakened and shrank noticeably after that time.

The resembling inter-decadal change in the height for the area of Asian polar vortex can be found
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at upper troposphere as well (figures not shown). In addition, we also computed the accumulated

anomalies of spring geopotential height at 850 and 500 hPa (Fig. 6) and SLP (figure not shown)
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averaged by Mongolia-Inner Mongolia (MIM, 40º-50ºN, 90º-115ºE) and the 850 hPa vorticity

derived from horizontal winds over Mongolia (45º-50ºN, 100º-110ºE, figure not shown) which can
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reflect at large extent the mean condition of the activities of Mongolian cyclone. The lower

pressure corresponds to stronger intensity of Mongolian cyclone, for the peaks comparison, the
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accumulated anomalies of height over MIM in Fig.6 are multiplied by -1. The 500 hPa height over
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MIM has similar inter-decadal variation to the Asian polar vortex. However, the height and

vorticity at 850 hPa and SLP over MIM have the only prominent change in 1977, which is in
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agreement with the sharp decrease of the frequency of 850 hPa Mongolian cyclone in later 1970s
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by Zhu et al. (2008).

The composite difference of SLP in northern hemisphere shows negative values in the high

latitudes and positive values in latitudes to the south of 50ºN particularly over the Eurasian

continent which suggests the evident weakening of meridional pressure gradient (Fig. 4b).

However, it is almost reversed in the North Pacific. This opposite distribution of SLP difference

for various longitudes may be the reason why the spring AO index has no evident long-term trend

for the last several decades, though it has good correlation with the inter-annual variations of the
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sand/dust storm frequency (Gong et al., 2006). Notably, both in the western and eastern North

Pacific, a negative core matches the positive center in the Mongolia-northern China and northwest

part of the United States, respectively, but these two significant negative cores are so shallow and

can only be found near surface. The significant remoting pattern indicates that the regional

circulation systems affecting the spring sand/dust over north China is just the part of the

hemisphere-scale general circulation, and they changed with macroclimate background.

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Fig. 4. Differences of the spring 500 hPa geopotential height (a) and SLP (b) between the periods
1961-1988 and 1989-2016. Shaded areas exceed the 95% confidence level by the student’s t test.

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Fig. 5. Accumulated anomalies of the indices of Intensity (solid circle, unit: 10 gpm) and area
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(hollow circle, unit: 105 km2 ) of Asian polar vortex.
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Fig. 6. Accumulated anomalies (multiplied by -1) of the spring geopotential height (unit: gpm) at 850

(hollow circle) and 500 hPa (solid circle) averaged by the area of Mongolia-Inner Mongolia
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(40º-50ºN, 90º-115ºE).
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3.4 Changes of the relationship between the regional mean sand/dust

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frequency and atmospheric circulation

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Fig 7 shows regressions of 500 hPa height anomalies on the regional mean sand/dust
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frequency. For 1961-1988, a notable dipole structure of height anomalies is presented over the

northeastern Eurasian continent, having negative values near the Baikal and positive to the

northeast, but over China almost no signal can be seen. However, the regressions for 1989-2016

are completely different. Most of the eastern Eurasian continent is covered by negative coefficient

of regression, having two centers located north of 60 ºN and in northern China, respectively,

which suggests that the sand/dust days has close relationship with the Asian polar vortex and local

circulation. The correlation coefficients between the regional mean sand/dust frequency and the

intensity index of Asian polar vortex are much higher during 1989-2016 (Table 2), especially for
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Northwest China, the coefficient is 0.5 reaching the 99% confidence level. In addition, the number

of sand/dust days in Xinjiang has significant correlations with height over the Ural Mountains for

1989-2016 and near the Caspian sea for 1961-1988.

Fig. 7. M aps of regressions between the sand/dust frequency and 500 hPa geopotential height during spring in the

excessive period of 1961-1988 (upper column) and relatively low period of 1989-2016 (lower column).

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a1.2 Xinjiang, b1.2 Northwest China, c1.2 North China, d1.2 Northeast China

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Table 2. Correlation coefficient between regional mean sand/dust frequency and the intensity index of Asian
polar vortex and vorticity over M ongolia during 1961-1988 and 1989-2016

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Asian polar vortex intensity Vorticity over M ongolia
1961-1988 1989-2016 1961-1988 1989-2016
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XJ -0.26 0.19 0.24 0.46**
NWC -0.01 0.50** 0.45** 0.60**
NC 0.05 0.15 0.54** 0.38**
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NEC 0.28 0.31* 0.22 0.10

(“**” and “*” denote correlation exceeding 95% and 90% confidence level respectively )

The resembling meridional dipole pattern also dominates the regression maps of height at
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lower levels on the regional mean sand/dust frequency before the late 1980s (Fig.8a1-4), showing

the equivalent barotropic feature. Nevertheless, after the late 1980s, a zonal dipole pattern, i.e.
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positive in the west and negative in the east across China, are dominant at lower levels (Fig.

8b1-4), which is apparently different from that of 500 hPa. As the Mongolian cyclone is one of the
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most important factors affecting the dust, we calculate the correlation coefficient between the 850
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hPa vorticity over Mongolia (45°-50°N, 100°-110°E) and sand/dust frequency, and find that the

correlation was strengthened after the late 1980s for Xinjiang and Northwest China, and weakened

for North China and Northeast China (Table 2). As shown in Fig.5 and Fig. 6, the slope of

accumulated anomalies of Asian polar vortex and Mongolian cyclone indices show decreases

sharply after late 1980s, which means, the inactivity of Asian polar vortex and Mongolian cyclone

accompany with the inactive sand/dust. And the relationship analyses in table 2 maybe indicate

that the activity of local systems would be more closely related to the occurrence of sand/dust

event during 1989-2016.

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Fig. 8. M aps of regressions between the sand/dust frequency and SLP during spring in the excessive period of

1961-1988 (upper column) and relatively low period of 1989-2016 (lower column).

a1.2 Xinjiang, b1.2 Northwest China, c1.2 North China, d1.2 Northeast China

4. Discussion

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The above results show that there were obvious changes between the two targeted periods in

the correlation region of geopotential height at different levels with the sand/dust frequency,

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especially that at the mid-troposphere. The activity of polar vortex would not always impact Asia,

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and Asian polar vortex can reflect if and what extent the polar vortex impact Asia. It is confusing

that during 1961-1988 the Asian polar vortex was much stronger and larger, but its intensity index
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had weak correlation with sand/dust frequency in China, while their relationship was closer for

1989-2016 though the Asian polar vortex became weaker. Additionally, the correlations over
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China became significant both at mid-and lower troposphere after the late 1980s, which indicates

that the sand/dust frequency in northern China has much closer relationship with local circulations

in the inactive sand/dust period. It seems that the number of sand/dust days have close association
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with the AO as the regression between SLP and regional mean sand/dust frequency show

significant positive values at higher latitudes north of 60 ºN and negative at lower latitudes in
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northern hemisphere for 1961-1988. Unfortunately, the correlation analysis shows that the
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regional mean sand/dust frequency has weak negative correlation with AO index less than 95%
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confidence level for that epoch, which is inconsistent with the result of Gong et al. (2006).
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In this paper, we only analyzed the atmospheric dynamic condition that affect the sand/dust

frequency in northern China during spring. As a matter of fact, the occurrences of sand-dust are

also related to the change in surface conditions. However, Guan et al. (2017) pointed out that

NDVI and precipitation are negatively correlated with sand/dust storm frequency in northern

China, but the effect is weak, and there was no significant relationship between precipitation and

sand/dust frequency in terms of long-term since there was no significant linear trend during

1960-2007. But for a shorter period such as 1982–2001, the summer rainfall anomaly over an

extensive area close to the China-Mongolia border is the primary factor that determines the local
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soil moisture condition in the summer and then the vegetation condition in the following spring

through persistence of the soil moisture, eventually determining the variation pattern of the spring

sand/dust frequency in northern China (Liu et al., 2004). Our analysis shows that the sand/dust

frequency has significant negative correlation with local rainfalls in the same spring except for

Northeast China during 1961-1988, while during 1989-2016 the prior summer rainfalls has more

important effect. The inter-decadal variations of the impact of rainfall and NDVI on the sand/dust

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occurrences need further investigation.

5. Conclusions

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According to the spatial distribution of spring sand/dust frequency in northern China, we

divide the dust-prone areas into four regions as Xinjiang, Northwest China, North China, and
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Northeast China. Based on the features of the temporal variations in the regional mean sand/dust

frequency, the years of 1961-2016 are divided into two epochs. The differences in the main
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associated atmospheric circulations and their relationship with sand/dust frequency are compared

between these two periods. The results are as follows.

1) In the last 56 years, the regional mean sand/dust frequency in northern China exhibits a
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significant linear declining trend, which is greatest in Northwest China as 4 d per decade, and

smallest in Northeast China as 1.3 d per decade.

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2) The regional mean sand/dust frequency in each region has inter-decadal variations of
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initial increasing followed by decreasing. It is highest in the 1970s and lowest in the 2010s with

the abrupt changes occurring in the late 1980s. We choose 1961-1988 as active sand/dust period and
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1989-2016 as inactive sand/dust period.

3) There are apparent differences in the large-scale atmospheric circulations between these

two epochs. The heights over MIM at mid-and lower troposphere became much higher, and the

Asian polar vortex at mid-and upper levels weakened and shrank noticeably after the late 1980s.

4) The relationship between the regional mean sand/dust frequency and atmospheric

circulation also has obvious changes between these two periods. For 1961-1988, a meridional

dipole pattern of significant correlation in heights at mid-and lower levels was dominant over the

northeastern Eurasian continent, while for 1989-2016, a zonal dipole structure at lower
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troposphere dominates over China. The relationship between the 850 hPa vorticity over Mongolia

and sand/dust frequency was strengthened after the late 1980s for Xinjiang and Northwest China,

but that was weakened for North China and Northeast China. Besides, the intensity of Asian polar

vortex at 500 hPa had higher correlation with sand/dust frequency in northern China for

1989-2016.

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Author contributions

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M.Y. and X. Z. conceived and designed the project; W.A., W.S., H.P. and Y.P. analyzed the

data; and M.Y. and X. Z.wrote the paper with comments from the coauthors.

Notes
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The authors declare no competing financial interest.
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Acknowledgments
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This work was supported by the Major State Research Development Program of China [grant

number 2017YFC0210100] and Special Funds for Desertification Monitoring [grant number
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2017].
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Figures
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(a) (b)
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Fig. 1. (a) Distribution of the spring sand/dust frequency averaged for 1961-2016 across China, and (b) the

selected stations in different regions prone to sand/dust occurrences in northern China (purple for the Xinjiang area,

green for Northwest China, red for North China, and blue for Northeast China).
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Fig. 2. Time sequence of the regional mean sand/dust frequency in spring for different regions ( line with solid

circle) and the linear trends (solid line): (a) Xinjiang, (b) Northwest China, (c) North China, (d) Northeast China.
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The dashed lines indicate the average of 1961-2016, 1961-1988 and 1989-2016, respectively.
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Fig. 3. Sliding Lepage statistics HK of the regional mean sand/dust frequency for (a) Xinjiang, (b) Northwest
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China, (c) North China, (d) Northeast China. The dash line is the critical value for the confidence level of 99%.

(a) (b)
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Fig. 4. Differences of the spring 500 hPa geopotential height (a) and SLP (b) between the periods 1961-1988 and

1989-2016. Shaded areas exceed the 95% confidence level by the student’s t test.

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Fig. 5. Accumulated anomalies of the indices of Intensity (solid circle, unit: 10 gpm) and area
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(hollow circle, unit: 105 km2 ) of Asian polar vortex.

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Fig. 6. Accumulated anomalies (multiplied by -1) of the spring geopotential height (unit: gpm) at 850

(hollow circle) and 500 hPa (solid circle) averaged by the area of Mongolia-Inner Mongolia
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(40º-50ºN, 90º-115ºE).

(a1) (a2)

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Fig. 7. M aps of regressions between the sand/dust frequency and 500 hPa geopotential height during spring in

the excessive period of 1961-1988 (upper column) and relatively low period of 1989-2016 (lower column).

a1.2 Xinjiang, b1.2 Northwest China, c1.2 North China, d1.2 Northeast China
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(a1) ( a2)

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(d1) (d2)

Fig. 8. M aps of regressions between the sand/dust frequency and SLP during spring in the excessive period of

1961-1988 (upper column) and relatively low period of 1989-2016 (lower column).

a1.2 Xinjiang, b1.2 Northwest China, c1.2 North China, d1.2 Northeast China
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Highlights

 Spring dust frequency decreased generally during 1961-2016

over northern China

 Significant abrupt changes of dust frequency occurred in the

late 1980s

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 Atmospheric circulation and its relationship with dust

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frequency differed between 1961-1988 and 1989-2016

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