Chapter 7

LONG-TERM TRENDS IN CIRRUS CLOUD PROPERTIES

7.1 Background and Objectives

It is well-known that water vapour, low tempemtun and ice nuclei (for
heterogeneous freezing) arc the main ingredients needed for the formation of cirrus
clouds. Recent research shows that the stratospheric water vapour which meinly
comes from the tropical tropopause layer (TTL)has been increasing [Rosenlofer al.,
2001; Solomon el a!., 20101 and this incrcase is closely associated with the changes in
the tropopause temperature [Rundel and Jensen, 20131. In addition to this, aerosol
amount in the ITL, some of which serve as ice nuclei are increasing especially during
the Asian summer monsoon season period [Kulkarni er al., 20011; Vernier et a/.,
20151. Latitudinal changes in the distribution o f water vapour, temperature and
aerosols will affect the distribution of TTl, cirrus clouds [Massie ct al.. 20131 and
ultimately affect the Earth's radiatrqn balance. Thus, it i s essential to quantify the
properties of TTL cirrus clouds and their dependence on geographic locations,
temperature (altitude) and aerosol composition which necessitate long-term
observations (Rundel and Jensen, 20131. Several modelling studies have suggested
that a warming climate will affect cirrus cloud properties such as altitude and
thickness [Boucher et al., 2013 and references within; ('hepfer cf al., 20141. Lang-
term observations o f vertically resolved properties o f cirrus clouds can help in early
detection of climate change and validate climate models. Despite the continuous
efforts made to minimize the uncertainties in cirrus cloud properties at regional and
global scales through ground-based, space-based and in-situ observations, regional
climatologies of tropical cirrus clouds on the decadal timescale are very few. In
addition to this, the contribution and response of cirrus clouds to climate change is not
well-understood.
This chapter i s an attempt to investigate the change in the properties of cims
clouds (altitude, percentage occurrence, mid-cloud temperature, geometrical
thickness, optical thickness and cirrus cloud fraction) observed over Gadanki using
the 16 years (1998-2013) o f Lidar data set and 7 and a half years (June 2006-
Dec.2013) o f CALlOP data set.
7.2. Trerdr in Percemtage of Occurcrslct, Chrwt Clood Bue uwl Tap A#ftwbr
The &ends in the propatics of cims clouds viz. pcmmgc of occurranoa
(PO), cloud base altitude and, cloud top altitude rn estimated. Linear-fit to tho time-
series of monthly mean of each of these properties is used to estimate the bend. Long-
term trends observed in the cirrus top and base altitudes am shown in Figure 7(a) and

18.r -
(a) cirrus top S~-0.03M0.01b

i;:7;
17-

13- I
I
p-value-0.04
1 2 1
98 99 0001 02 03 04 05 08 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90

-80
E
30

0
88 89 0001 02 0 3 0 4 05 06: 07 08 08 10 11 12 13 14

8
98
0-9 07 08 08 10 11 12 13 14
Year
Figure 7.1 Time series qfmon~hlymean (a) cirruv to/?ubilde, (b) PO r?f cirru,s ul 16 km, and
(c) cirrw haye ultitudr observed during the period IY9H-2013. Thin line in euch panel ~ h o w s
the monlhly mrun variation, the thick line shows the annual mean vurialion and hluck darhed
line shows the linearfil.

7(c), respectively. Cirrus top and base altitudes have increased by 0.56 km and 0.41
km,respectively, in the last 16 years. The trends for top and base heights are found to
be significant at 96% and 80% confidence levels, respectively using Student's t-test.
These findings strengthen the Fixed-Anvil Temperature (FAT) hypothesis [Harrmann
Cwer 7 LqkJdnn hmis in cirrus c l o u d ~ i e s

nrd Lam,& 20021 rooordi to w b i tmphal c h i s clouds will be shiftad upwards

M M n g iJathcmts in a wmm d i .Latast IPCC (ARS) also confirm8 &is
upwad shift with high confidcm h lbrssd on hay, nsodd sIrnwktiono d wuk
o b s t w a t i o n a l ; w p p o r t [ ~ e t a l .2013],Thus,thsRndinlpaftheprarcaatrtudy
,
reinforce the o$aarvrttond evidauoas krr FAT hypothsais. Assuming r siPrrpee
temponlrelation,thE~Ofupwud~~ofthCbrscERbitudcis~Bobadnrur28
m yewyeu'while that of the top altitude is hwd to be tabout 35 m yearJnrr'.Thar#.&
are published in Pantlit el al. [2014]. Later to this atwly, Ch@r at al, (2014) haw
predicted an upward shift in the cirrus cloud altitude in tropics at a typical rate of 20
m using multiple climate models. Using 6 years of CALlOP observntions, Wlwr
et al. [2014] have also showed an increase in the amount and altitude of cirrus clouds
in response to the surface warming.

Figure 7.1 (b) shows the time series of the percentage of occumnce of cinw
clouds at 16 km altitude. An increase of about 8.4% is observed in the PO at 16 km in
the last 16 years. This increase is significant at 70% confidence level (obtained using
Students t-test). It is to note that 16 km is the altitude of maximum occurrence of sub-
visible cirrus clouds (Chapter 5, Figure 5.1 2 c). No detectable trend was observed in
the PO at other altitude bins. Recently, Zhou et al., [2014] showed that the amount of
cirrus clouds as observed from CALIOP has increased in response to inter-annual
surface warming which is in contrast to an earlier study of dccadal cirrus cloud
climatology by Hoareau et al. [2013] over France (43.9ON, 5.7OE), Hoareau el al.,
[2013] have reported a decrease in the cirrus clouds occurrence of about 3% per
decade albeit statistically insignificant. The contrasting trend might be due to
difference in atmospheric dynamics in tropics and mid-latitudes. In a recent study of
TTL cirrus clouds at 100 hPa (approximately 16 km). Massie el d.120131 have
reported that there is no statistically significant trend in the TTL cirrus in the last 8
years of CALIPSO data.

7.3. Trends in Mid-cloud Altitude, Mid-cloud Temperature, Geometrical and

Optical Thickness for Each Type of Cirrus Clouds

The trends shown in the previous section were not separated for different
cims cloud types (i.e. sub-visible, thin and thick). Since each of these types has
distinct radiative effect, studying their trend separately is more meaningful. To do
Chap~er7 Long-term trends in ciwur c l o ~ p p e r t i e s

this, first we grouped each of the cirrus cloud property into three different groups
based on their optical thickness. Then, trend analysis was performed for time-series of
monthly mean values of mid-cloud altitude, mid-cloud temperature, geometrical
thickness, optical thickness and cirrus cloud fraction for each cirrus cloud type. For
the sake of comparison, trend analysis was also performed on corresponding cirrus
cloud property obtained from CALIOP night-time data around 50 km radius of
Gadanki. Note that the cloud fraction from CALlOP night-time data set was not
calculated because of few data points in the chosen region around Gadanki. Details of
these trend analyses are given in the Table 7.1.

Table 7.1 Details qf trcnd analysisfor cirrus cloud properties for each type of cirrus cloud

Parameter Sub-visible cirrus Thin cirrus

Trend per p-value Trend per year p-value

year

Mid-cloud altitude 0.0414 0.05 0.00959 0.64

(km)
(0.0604)' (0.56) (-0.00264) (0.98)

Mid-cloud -0.1229 0.35 -0.00262 0.98

temperature ('C)
(-0.5745) (0.44) (-0.121 21) (0.88)

Geometrical 0.00473 0.27 0.0 1 544 0.15

thickness (km)
(-0.0249) (0.24) (-0.009 17) (0.82)

Optical thickness -9.4 x 10" 0.09 3. 10" 0.58

(-2, x 1 04) (0.6) (-1.937 x 10'") (0.5)

Cloud fraction (%) 0.59 0.1 -0.48 0.09

a
*Value in parentheses corresponds to CALIOP night-time data-set. Stati .ically significant
trends are shown in bold fonts.
Chapter 7 Long-term trenak in cirrus clodpoperties

Figure 7.2 Time series of monthly mean (a) mid-cloud altitude, (b) mid-cloud temperature,
(c) geometrical thickness and ( d ) optical thickness ?f sub-visible cirrus clouds obtained using
NARL Lidar (shown by open red circles) and CALIOP night time data (shown by blue f l e d
circle). The dashed black line shows the linear,fit to the NARL Lidar data points while the
solid blue line shows the same for CALlOP dolu points. Slops ure expressed in unit p r year.

In the last 16 years, the monthly mean mid-cloud altitude of sub-visible cirrus
clouds is found to be increasing at the rate of 41 i 21 m year-' (Figure 7.2 a). The
trend is found to be statistically significant (p-value = 0.05 using Student 1-test).
Chapter 7 Lang-term tremlr in cirrus cloud properties
Thin clrmr clouds
2"
45 18

i
18
14
12
10
a

1BQ81999200020012002200020042M)5200620072008200920102011201220132014
Year
Figure 7.3 Time series of'monfhly mean (a) mid-cloud alfirwlr. (b) mid-clod femperulure.
(c) geometrical thickness and ( d ) opricul thickness of thin cirrus cloud.9 obruined using NARL
Lidur (shown by open red circles) and CALIOP nigh1 lime dura jshown by blue,filled circle).
The dashed black line shows the linear,fil to the NARL Lidar data poinrs while the .solid blue
line shows the same,fnr CALIOP data points. Slopes are expressed in uni~per year. Legends
are similar to Figure 7.2.

CALIOP observations also show an increasing trend for mid-cloud altitude but
statistically insignificant. As expected from mid-cloud-altitude trend, both lidars show
that the mid-cloud temperature is decreasing. However, the temperature trend is found
Chapter 7 Long-term trends in cirru~c1oudpropr1ie.v

Thkk clrms clouds

l I ' l I I I 1 l l r l ' l l
WAIL p*.lu: 0.m. s t o p : -0.ooaa~to.oozz1

NARL p*&lW: 0.81,S k p O : 0.078110.1

lQW1BBg20(]0200120M#n]3200420D5200820072008~20102011201220132014

Figure 7.4 Same as Figure 7.3 burfor lhick cirrus cloudr.

to be statistically insignificant. The geometrical thickness does not show a statiHially

significant trend in any of the lidar observations over Gadanki. This is in cantnut to
mid-latitude station OHP, France where Hwreau et al. [2013] found a statistically
significant increase in geometrical thickness but an insignificant trend in mid-cloud
altitude. The optical thickness of sub-visible cirrus clouds obtained from both lidars is
found to be decreasing. The trend of -9.4 x 10'~ * 5.5 x 1.0~'per year in the optical
thickness of sub-visible cirms clouds obtained from NARL Lidar is statistically
significant (p-value = 0.09) while the trend using CALIOP data is statistically

112
Chapter 7 Long-tern Pen& in cirrus cloudproperties

insignificant. All the properties were found to have statistically insignificant trends for
thin (Figure 7.3) and thick cirrus clouds (Figure 7.4) except for the optical thickness
of thick cirrus clouds. Thick cirrus cloud shows statistically significant decreasing
trend (p-value = 0.01) of -1.5 x *
lo-* 5.3 x lo-' per year in cloud optical thickness
(Figure 7.4 d).

7.4. Trends in the Fraction of Each Cirrus Cloud Type

In the latest IPCC report [Boucher ct al., 201 31, a systematic shiA from thick
(a) Sub-visible cim

lDBB18992WO20012002#X#2#))#W#20011#xn2000200020102011201220132014
Yur

(b) Thin cirms

1.o
5 0.8
1 0.8
1 0.4
0 0.2
0.0

(C) Thick d m
0.8

!:::
B 0.2
0.0

Figure 7.5 Time-series of monthly meanfraction of (a) sub-visible cirrus, (b) thin cirrus, and
(c) thick cirrus clouds for the periudfiurn 1998-2013. Blue line in each panel represenls /he

high clouds to thin c i r ~ clouds

s or vice-versa is suggested as a possible mechanism
for cloud-climate feedback. However, at the time of preparation of the IPCC report,