Decision Science

December 2023 Examination

Ans-1

Introduction:

The Mumbai-based venture master Mukulbhai Gadhecha was sought out by Mr. Rajinder
Saproo, a financial supporter with 10 lakh Indian rupees. Mukulbhai was tasked with
advising Mr. Saproo on the best business move given certain financial development
circumstances. Mr. Saproo divided his outlook on the economy for the coming year into three
categories: 10% optimistic about "genuine financial development," 50% confident about
"moderate financial increment," and 40% content with "lower monetary increment." Under
these conditions, Mukulbhai Gadhecha thoroughly dissected the anticipated changes for
various enterprise selections. Maruti Suzuki shares, Goodbye Engine stocks, and D Store
stocks were the venture options that were being considered; each offered varying yields
depending on the financial situation.

Decision Tree Diagram: To provide Mr. Saproo with clear and knowledgeable assistance, we
created a decision tree diagram that directly tackles the speculative options and the associated
probabilities of every single financial scenario. The option tree enables displaying the
potential outcomes and anticipated returns for unusual situations. A decision Tree Outline will
follow.

Venture Choice (10,000 Indian Rupees)

/|\

/|\

Excellent Financial/Moderate Financial Lower Financial

Development and Development

10% (0.10)/half (0.50) \ 40% (0.40)

/\/
 /\/

/\/

/\/

Goodbye Engine Offers from Mauti Suzuki for D Store Shares

3, 00,000 (0.10) 4, 00,000 (0.10) 4,50,000 (0.10) | | |

1, 20,000 (0.50) 1,00,000 (0.50) 2,30,000 (0.50)

|||

50,000 (0.40) 10,000 (0.40) 30,000 (0.40)

The decision tree shows Mr. Saproo's choices based solely on his available budget of 10,000
INR and the odds assigned to each scenario of financial development. On the last branch of
the tree, the three enterprise options are dispersed, each with its own returns for "genuine
monetary increment," "moderate monetary development," and "diminished monetary
increment."

Financial characteristics anticipated (EMVs)

We established the typical financial Qualities (EMVs) for each financing option under each
financial scenario in order to select the agreeable subsidizing option for Mr. Saproo. EMV is
a quick decision-making tool since it takes into account both potential limit returns and their
associated implications. The amount of each and every possible end-product's item and
likelihood is used to calculate EMV.

The EMVs determined for each venture option are listed below:

What Mauti Suzuki Provides

EMV equals 30,000 + 60,000 + 20,000 = 110,000 Indian Rupees (0.10 * 3,000,00,000 + 0.50
* 1, 20,000 + 0.40 * 50,000)

Goodbye Engine reveals:

EMV = 40,000 + 50,000 + 4,000 = 94,000 INR. EMV = (0.10 * 4, 00,000) + (0.50 * 1,
00,000) + (0.40 * 10,000)
D Store provides

EMV is calculated as follows: 0.10 x 4, 50,000 + 0.50 x 2, 30,000 + 0.40 x 30,000 = 45,000 x
1,15,000 x 12,000 = 172,000 INR.

Proposal:

The main investment preference for Mr. Saproo is D Store shares, which is based on the
calculated EMVs for each investment decision. With an EMV of almost 172,000 Indian
rupees, this component offers the highest expected return for the bulk of the three venture
options.

D Store shares align with Mr. Saproo's goal of increasing capacity returns while thinking
about the associated potential. This recommendation follows a thorough evaluation of the
expected returns under various scenarios for monetary development, as taken into account in
the EMVs.

Conclusion:

Mr. Saproo should propose to donate his 10 lakh INR by selecting D Store shares after
considering all options. This desire is supported by carefully considering the likelihoods and
anticipated rewards for each funding option. Mr. Saproo can try to increase his profits in line
with his optimism about the financial future, as evidenced by the probabilities he assigned to
various financial development scenarios, by investing a large amount of time in D Shop
shares.

In any case, Mr. Saproo should keep in mind that all speculative activities involve some level
of risk, and he should continue to research economic conditions and occasionally review his
venture portfolio in order to make wise decisions when circumstances change. This proposal
is mostly based on the information that is readily available and an understanding of the
financial condition at the time of the decision.

Ans-2
The goal of the ideal alpha is:
We embarked on a quest to find the alpha value that leads to superior prophetic abilities
within the guaging sector. We travel through the dense forested areas of mean Outright
Deviation (Frantic) and the deceptive terrain of suggest squared botches (MSE) as part of our
process. These measures will serve as the compass for our journey.
The Contestants:

The alpha qualities of our deserving candidates are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, and 0.9. Each Alpha
makes an effort to establish its value in the estimating scene, but only one will succeed.
Alpha = 0.1

(3)
(1) (2)
Exponential Smoothing
year Sales
(α=0.1)

1 977 977

2 1127 0.1⋅977+0.9⋅977=977

3 694 0.1⋅1127+0.9⋅977=992

4 1357 0.1⋅694+0.9⋅992=962.2

5 1020 0.1⋅1357+0.9⋅962.2=1001.68

6 1187 0.1⋅1020+0.9⋅1001.68=1003.512

7 866 0.1⋅1187+0.9⋅1003.512=1021.8608

8 1459 0.1⋅866+0.9⋅1021.8608=1006.2747

9 1163 0.1⋅1459+0.9⋅1006.2747=1051.5472

10 991 0.1⋅1163+0.9⋅1051.5472=1062.6925

11 1411 0.1⋅991+0.9⋅1062.6925=1055.5233

12 1323 0.1⋅1411+0.9⋅1055.5233=1091.0709

13 995 0.1⋅1323+0.9⋅1091.0709=1114.2638

14 1764 0.1⋅995+0.9⋅1114.2638=1102.3375

15 1552 0.1⋅1764+0.9⋅1102.3375=1168.5037

16 1465 0.1⋅1552+0.9⋅1168.5037=1206.8533

17 1398 0.1⋅1465+0.9⋅1206.8533=1232.668

18 1893 0.1⋅1398+0.9⋅1232.668=1249.2012

19 1422 0.1⋅1893+0.9⋅1249.2012=1313.5811

20 2063 0.1⋅1422+0.9⋅1313.5811=1324.423
21 1703 0.1⋅2063+0.9⋅1324.423=1398.2807

22 1758 0.1⋅1703+0.9⋅1398.2807=1428.7526

23 0.1⋅1758+0.9⋅1428.7526=1461.6774

(1) (2) (3) (7)

(4) (5) (6)
yea Sale Exponential |%Erro
Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing r|

1 977 977

112
2 977 1127-977=150 150 22500 13.31%
7

3 694 992 694-992=-298 298 88804 42.94%

135
4 962.2 1357-962.2=394.8 394.8 155867.04 29.09%
7

102
5 1001.68 1020-1001.68=18.32 18.32 335.6224 1.8%
0

118 1187-
6 1003.512 183.488 33667.8461 15.46%
7 1003.512=183.488

866-1021.8608=- 155.860
7 866 1021.8608 24292.589 18%
155.8608 8

145 1459- 452.725 204960.179

8 1006.2747 31.03%
9 1006.2747=452.7253 3 2

116 1163-
9 1051.5472 111.4528 12421.7159 9.58%
3 1051.5472=111.4528

991-1062.6925=-
10 991 1062.6925 71.6925 5139.8179 7.23%
71.6925

141 1411- 355.476 126363.704

11 1055.5233 25.19%
1 1055.5233=355.4767 7 9
 132 1323- 231.929
12 1091.0709 53791.0871 17.53%
3 1091.0709=231.9291 1

995-1114.2638=-
13 995 1114.2638 119.2638 14223.8658 11.99%
119.2638

176 1764- 661.662 437797.310

14 1102.3375 37.51%
4 1102.3375=661.6625 5 9

155 1552- 383.496 147069.398

15 1168.5037 24.71%
2 1168.5037=383.4963 3 3

146 1465- 258.146

16 1206.8533 66639.6949 17.62%
5 1206.8533=258.1467 7

139 1398-
17 1232.668 165.332 27334.6664 11.83%
8 1232.668=165.332

189 1893- 643.798 414476.881

18 1249.2012 34.01%
3 1249.2012=643.7988 8 4

142 1422- 108.418

19 1313.5811 11754.6602 7.62%
2 1313.5811=108.4189 9

206 2063- 545496.013

20 1324.423 738.577 35.8%
3 1324.423=738.577 8

170 1703- 304.719

21 1398.2807 92853.8625 17.89%
3 1398.2807=304.7193 3

175 1758- 329.247 108403.841

22 1428.7526 18.73%
8 1428.7526=329.2474 4 1

6136.40 2594193.79 428.88

23 1461.6774 Total
79 78 %

Gauging errors

1. Known also as mean outright deviation (Frantic), mean outright mistake (MAE)

MAD=(6136.4079)/21=292.2099
2. The mean square error (MSE)

MSE=2594193.7978/21=123533.038

(3)
(1) (2)
Exponential Smoothing
year Sales
(α=0.2)

1 977 977

2 1127 0.2⋅977+0.8⋅977=977

3 694 0.2⋅1127+0.8⋅977=1007

4 1357 0.2⋅694+0.8⋅1007=944.4

5 1020 0.2⋅1357+0.8⋅944.4=1026.92

6 1187 0.2⋅1020+0.8⋅1026.92=1025.536

7 866 0.2⋅1187+0.8⋅1025.536=1057.8288

8 1459 0.2⋅866+0.8⋅1057.8288=1019.463

9 1163 0.2⋅1459+0.8⋅1019.463=1107.3704

10 991 0.2⋅1163+0.8⋅1107.3704=1118.4963

11 1411 0.2⋅991+0.8⋅1118.4963=1092.9971

12 1323 0.2⋅1411+0.8⋅1092.9971=1156.5977

13 995 0.2⋅1323+0.8⋅1156.5977=1189.8781

14 1764 0.2⋅995+0.8⋅1189.8781=1150.9025

15 1552 0.2⋅1764+0.8⋅1150.9025=1273.522

16 1465 0.2⋅1552+0.8⋅1273.522=1329.2176

17 1398 0.2⋅1465+0.8⋅1329.2176=1356.3741

18 1893 0.2⋅1398+0.8⋅1356.3741=1364.6993
19 1422 0.2⋅1893+0.8⋅1364.6993=1470.3594

20 2063 0.2⋅1422+0.8⋅1470.3594=1460.6875

21 1703 0.2⋅2063+0.8⋅1460.6875=1581.15

22 1758 0.2⋅1703+0.8⋅1581.15=1605.52

23 0.2⋅1758+0.8⋅1605.52=1636.016

(1) (2) (3) (7)

(4) (5) (6)
yea Sale Exponential |%Erro
Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing r|

1 977 977

112
2 977 1127-977=150 150 22500 13.31%
7

3 694 1007 694-1007=-313 313 97969 45.1%

135
4 944.4 1357-944.4=412.6 412.6 170238.76 30.41%
7

102
5 1026.92 1020-1026.92=-6.92 6.92 47.8864 0.68%
0

118 1187-
6 1025.536 161.464 26070.6233 13.6%
7 1025.536=161.464

866-1057.8288=- 191.828
7 866 1057.8288 36798.2885 22.15%
191.8288 8

145 1459- 193192.739

8 1019.463 439.537 30.13%
9 1019.463=439.537 2

116 1163-
9 1107.3704 55.6296 3094.6488 4.78%
3 1107.3704=55.6296

991-1118.4963=- 127.496
10 991 1118.4963 16255.3181 12.87%
127.4963 3
 141 1411- 318.002 101125.859
11 1092.9971 22.54%
1 1092.9971=318.0029 9 4

132 1323- 166.402

12 1156.5977 27689.7384 12.58%
3 1156.5977=166.4023 3

995-1189.8781=- 194.878
13 995 1189.8781 37977.4851 19.59%
194.8781 1

176 1764- 613.097 375888.540

14 1150.9025 34.76%
4 1150.9025=613.0975 5 6

155 1552-
15 1273.522 278.478 77549.9951 17.94%
2 1273.522=278.478

146 1465- 135.782

16 1329.2176 18436.8596 9.27%
5 1329.2176=135.7824 4

139 1398-
17 1356.3741 41.6259 1732.7171 2.98%
8 1356.3741=41.6259

189 1893- 528.300 279101.666

18 1364.6993 27.91%
3 1364.6993=528.3007 7 3

142 1422-1470.3594=-
19 1470.3594 48.3594 2338.6328 3.4%
2 48.3594

206 2063- 602.312 362780.311

20 1460.6875 29.2%
3 1460.6875=602.3125 5 8

170
21 1581.15 1703-1581.15=121.85 121.85 14847.4167 7.16%
3

175
22 1605.52 1758-1605.52=152.48 152.48 23250.1446 8.67%
8

5060.04 1888886.63
23 1636.016 Total 369%
54 17
Identifying errors

1. The terms "mean outright error" (MAE) and "mean outright deviation" (Frantic)

MAD=5060.0454/21=240.9545

2. The mean square error (MSE)

MSE=.(188888.6317)/21 =89946.9825

Alpha = 0.5
(3)
(1) (2)
Exponential Smoothing
year Sales
(α=0.5)

1 977 977

2 1127 0.5⋅977+0.5⋅977=977

3 694 0.5⋅1127+0.5⋅977=1052

4 1357 0.5⋅694+0.5⋅1052=873

5 1020 0.5⋅1357+0.5⋅873=1115

6 1187 0.5⋅1020+0.5⋅1115=1067.5

7 866 0.5⋅1187+0.5⋅1067.5=1127.25

8 1459 0.5⋅866+0.5⋅1127.25=996.625

9 1163 0.5⋅1459+0.5⋅996.625=1227.8125

10 991 0.5⋅1163+0.5⋅1227.8125=1195.4062

11 1411 0.5⋅991+0.5⋅1195.4062=1093.2031

12 1323 0.5⋅1411+0.5⋅1093.2031=1252.1016

13 995 0.5⋅1323+0.5⋅1252.1016=1287.5508

14 1764 0.5⋅995+0.5⋅1287.5508=1141.2754
15 1552 0.5⋅1764+0.5⋅1141.2754=1452.6377

16 1465 0.5⋅1552+0.5⋅1452.6377=1502.3188

17 1398 0.5⋅1465+0.5⋅1502.3188=1483.6594

18 1893 0.5⋅1398+0.5⋅1483.6594=1440.8297

19 1422 0.5⋅1893+0.5⋅1440.8297=1666.9149

20 2063 0.5⋅1422+0.5⋅1666.9149=1544.4574

21 1703 0.5⋅2063+0.5⋅1544.4574=1803.7287

22 1758 0.5⋅1703+0.5⋅1803.7287=1753.3644

23 0.5⋅1758+0.5⋅1753.3644=1755.6822

(1) (2) (3) (7)

(4) (5) (6)
yea Sale Exponential |%Erro
Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing r|

1 977 977

112
2 977 1127-977=150 150 22500 13.31%
7

3 694 1052 694-1052=-358 358 128164 51.59%

135
4 873 1357-873=484 484 234256 35.67%
7

102
5 1115 1020-1115=-95 95 9025 9.31%
0

118
6 1067.5 1187-1067.5=119.5 119.5 14280.25 10.07%
7

7 866 1127.25 866-1127.25=-261.25 261.25 68251.5625 30.17%

145 213790.640
8 996.625 1459-996.625=462.375 462.375 31.69%
9 6
 116 1163-1227.8125=-
9 1227.8125 64.8125 4200.6602 5.57%
3 64.8125

991-1195.4062=- 204.406
10 991 1195.4062 41781.915 20.63%
204.4062 2

141 1411- 317.796 100994.853

11 1093.2031 22.52%
1 1093.2031=317.7969 9 8

132 1323-
12 1252.1016 70.8984 5026.5884 5.36%
3 1252.1016=70.8984

995-1287.5508=- 292.550
13 995 1287.5508 85585.9596 29.4%
292.5508 8

176 1764- 622.724 387785.939

14 1141.2754 35.3%
4 1141.2754=622.7246 6 1

155 1552-
15 1452.6377 99.3623 9872.8676 6.4%
2 1452.6377=99.3623

146 1465-1502.3188=-
16 1502.3188 37.3188 1392.6964 2.55%
5 37.3188

139 1398-1483.6594=-
17 1483.6594 85.6594 7337.5369 6.13%
8 85.6594

189 1893- 452.170 204457.969

18 1440.8297 23.89%
3 1440.8297=452.1703 3 4

142 1422-1666.9149=- 244.914

19 1666.9149 59983.2867 17.22%
2 244.9149 9

206 2063- 518.542

20 1544.4574 268886.399 25.14%
3 1544.4574=518.5426 6

170 1703-1803.7287=- 100.728

21 1803.7287 10146.2738 5.91%
3 100.7287 7

175 1758-
22 1753.3644 4.6356 21.4892 0.26%
8 1753.3644=4.6356
 5046.64 1877741.88 388.09
23 1755.6822 Total
71 82 %

recognizing mistakes

1. The terms "mean outright error" (MAE) and "mean outright deviation" (Frantic)

Frequent =5046.6471/21=240.3165

2. The mean square error (MSE)

MSE=1877741.8882/21=89416.2804

ALPHA = 0.7

(3)
(1) (2)
Exponential Smoothing
year Sales
(α=0.7)

1 977 977

2 1127 0.7⋅977+0.3⋅977=977

3 694 0.7⋅1127+0.3⋅977=1082

4 1357 0.7⋅694+0.3⋅1082=810.4

5 1020 0.7⋅1357+0.3⋅810.4=1193.02

6 1187 0.7⋅1020+0.3⋅1193.02=1071.906

7 866 0.7⋅1187+0.3⋅1071.906=1152.4718

8 1459 0.7⋅866+0.3⋅1152.4718=951.9415

9 1163 0.7⋅1459+0.3⋅951.9415=1306.8825

10 991 0.7⋅1163+0.3⋅1306.8825=1206.1647
11 1411 0.7⋅991+0.3⋅1206.1647=1055.5494

12 1323 0.7⋅1411+0.3⋅1055.5494=1304.3648

13 995 0.7⋅1323+0.3⋅1304.3648=1317.4094

14 1764 0.7⋅995+0.3⋅1317.4094=1091.7228

15 1552 0.7⋅1764+0.3⋅1091.7228=1562.3169

16 1465 0.7⋅1552+0.3⋅1562.3169=1555.0951

17 1398 0.7⋅1465+0.3⋅1555.0951=1492.0285

18 1893 0.7⋅1398+0.3⋅1492.0285=1426.2086

19 1422 0.7⋅1893+0.3⋅1426.2086=1752.9626

20 2063 0.7⋅1422+0.3⋅1752.9626=1521.2888

21 1703 0.7⋅2063+0.3⋅1521.2888=1900.4866

22 1758 0.7⋅1703+0.3⋅1900.4866=1762.246

23 0.7⋅1758+0.3⋅1762.246=1759.2738

(1) (2) (3) (7)

(4) (5) (6)
yea Sale Exponential |%Erro
Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing r|

1 977 977

112
2 977 1127-977=150 150 22500 13.31%
7

3 694 1082 694-1082=-388 388 150544 55.91%

135
4 810.4 1357-810.4=546.6 546.6 298771.56 40.28%
7

102
5 1193.02 1020-1193.02=-173.02 173.02 29935.9204 16.96%
0
 118 1187-
6 1071.906 115.094 13246.6288 9.7%
7 1071.906=115.094

866-1152.4718=- 286.471
7 866 1152.4718 82066.0922 33.08%
286.4718 8

145 1459- 507.058 257108.281

8 951.9415 34.75%
9 951.9415=507.0585 5 9

116 1163-1306.8825=- 143.882

9 1306.8825 20702.1629 12.37%
3 143.8825 5

991-1206.1647=- 215.164
10 991 1206.1647 46295.8647 21.71%
215.1647 7

141 1411- 355.450 126345.113

11 1055.5494 25.19%
1 1055.5494=355.4506 6 7

132 1323-
12 1304.3648 18.6352 347.2697 1.41%
3 1304.3648=18.6352

995-1317.4094=- 322.409 103947.852

13 995 1317.4094 32.4%
322.4094 4 1

176 1764- 672.277 451956.587

14 1091.7228 38.11%
4 1091.7228=672.2772 2 4

155 1552-1562.3169=-
15 1562.3169 10.3169 106.4374 0.66%
2 10.3169

146 1465-1555.0951=-
16 1555.0951 90.0951 8117.119 6.15%
5 90.0951

139 1398-1492.0285=-
17 1492.0285 94.0285 8841.3619 6.73%
8 94.0285

189 1893- 466.791 217894.253

18 1426.2086 24.66%
3 1426.2086=466.7914 4 2

142 1422-1752.9626=- 330.962 109536.220

19 1752.9626 23.27%
2 330.9626 6 4
 206 2063- 541.711 293451.056
20 1521.2888 26.26%
3 1521.2888=541.7112 2 8

170 1703-1900.4866=- 197.486

21 1900.4866 39000.9694 11.6%
3 197.4866 6

175
22 1762.246 1758-1762.246=-4.246 4.246 18.0284 0.24%
8

5629.70 2280732.78 434.76

23 1759.2738 Total
21 03 %

recognizing mistakes

1. The terms "mean outright error" (MAE) and "mean outright deviation" (Frantic)

MAD=5629.7021/21=268.0811

2. The mean square error (MSE)

MSE=2280732.7803/21=108606.3229

ALPHA = 0.9

(3)
(1) (2)
Exponential Smoothing
year Sales
(α=0.9)

1 977 977

2 1127 0.9⋅977+0.1⋅977=977

3 694 0.9⋅1127+0.1⋅977=1112

4 1357 0.9⋅694+0.1⋅1112=735.8
5 1020 0.9⋅1357+0.1⋅735.8=1294.88

6 1187 0.9⋅1020+0.1⋅1294.88=1047.488

7 866 0.9⋅1187+0.1⋅1047.488=1173.0488

8 1459 0.9⋅866+0.1⋅1173.0488=896.7049

9 1163 0.9⋅1459+0.1⋅896.7049=1402.7705

10 991 0.9⋅1163+0.1⋅1402.7705=1186.977

11 1411 0.9⋅991+0.1⋅1186.977=1010.5977

12 1323 0.9⋅1411+0.1⋅1010.5977=1370.9598

13 995 0.9⋅1323+0.1⋅1370.9598=1327.796

14 1764 0.9⋅995+0.1⋅1327.796=1028.2796

15 1552 0.9⋅1764+0.1⋅1028.2796=1690.428

16 1465 0.9⋅1552+0.1⋅1690.428=1565.8428

17 1398 0.9⋅1465+0.1⋅1565.8428=1475.0843

18 1893 0.9⋅1398+0.1⋅1475.0843=1405.7084

19 1422 0.9⋅1893+0.1⋅1405.7084=1844.2708

20 2063 0.9⋅1422+0.1⋅1844.2708=1464.2271

21 1703 0.9⋅2063+0.1⋅1464.2271=2003.1227

22 1758 0.9⋅1703+0.1⋅2003.1227=1733.0123

23 0.9⋅1758+0.1⋅1733.0123=1755.5012

(1) (2) (3) (7)

(4) (5) (6)
yea Sale Exponential |%Erro
Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing r|

1 977 977
 112
2 977 1127-977=150 150 22500 13.31%
7

3 694 1112 694-1112=-418 418 174724 60.23%

135
4 735.8 1357-735.8=621.2 621.2 385889.44 45.78%
7

102
5 1294.88 1020-1294.88=-274.88 274.88 75559.0144 26.95%
0

118 1187-
6 1047.488 139.512 19463.5981 11.75%
7 1047.488=139.512

866-1173.0488=- 307.048
7 866 1173.0488 94278.9656 35.46%
307.0488 8

145 1459- 562.295

8 896.7049 316175.802 38.54%
9 896.7049=562.2951 1

116 1163-1402.7705=- 239.770

9 1402.7705 57489.8869 20.62%
3 239.7705 5

10 991 1186.977 991-1186.977=-195.977 195.977 38407.0037 19.78%

141 1411- 400.402 160321.997

11 1010.5977 28.38%
1 1010.5977=400.4023 3 9

132 1323-1370.9598=-
12 1370.9598 47.9598 2300.1396 3.63%
3 47.9598

110753.162
13 995 1327.796 995-1327.796=-332.796 332.796 33.45%
3

176 1764- 735.720 541284.510

14 1028.2796 41.71%
4 1028.2796=735.7204 4 4

155 1552-1690.428=-
15 1690.428 138.428 19162.3 8.92%
2 138.428

146 1465-1565.8428=- 100.842

16 1565.8428 10169.2695 6.88%
5 100.8428 8
 139 1398-1475.0843=-
17 1475.0843 77.0843 5941.9862 5.51%
8 77.0843

189 1893- 487.291 237453.076

18 1405.7084 25.74%
3 1405.7084=487.2916 6 2

142 1422-1844.2708=- 422.270 178312.664

19 1844.2708 29.7%
2 422.2708 8 7

206 2063- 598.772 358529.004

20 1464.2271 29.02%
3 1464.2271=598.7729 9 6

170 1703-2003.1227=- 300.122

21 2003.1227 90073.6401 17.62%
3 300.1227 7

175 1758-
22 1733.0123 24.9877 624.3866 1.42%
8 1733.0123=24.9877

6575.36 2899413.84 504.39

23 1755.5012 Total
27 88 %

estimation errors

1. Mean outspoken error (MAE), also known as mean outright deviation (MAD), has the
formula MAD=6575.3627/21=313.1125.

MSE, or mean square error

MSE=2899413.8488/21=138067.3261

To see the Distraught and MSE values for each alpha, we should right now create a diagram
in MS Success. We will then look at which alpha, in light of these measures, is somewhat
better for the gauge.
The Information:

Two alpha qualities show up as distinct areas of strength for as when we evaluate the results:
0.2 and 0.5. They find the least Frantic and MSE values, demonstrating their accuracy in
gauging. In order to be dependable companions while we continued our search for precision,
these alphas had made an effort.

The Concluding Remark:

Alpha upsides of 0.2 and 0.5 have emerged as the best in the highly precise sector of great
estimation. They are the best choices for those looking for the most reliable figures because
to their capacity to limit errors, both outright and squared.

As a result, over the long term, the choice of alpha is obvious: permit 0.2 and 0.5 to set the
tone for our gauging efforts as they have already proven to be the keys to unlocking the doors
of accurate expectation.

Ans-3.a.
We explore the world of records and common dispersion to establish the likelihood that a
randomly selected set of Mirchi lights from the creation part will survive after 100 days. We
embarked on an adventure to calculate this likelihood of the usage of the captivating universe
of Z-scores and the revered conventional normal circulation work area, with a middle life
expectancy (mean) of 90 days and a standard deviation of 10 days.

Stage 1: The Z-Score's Journey

The Z-score, a mathematical knight in shining armor, serves as our guide for determining
how much a particular value deviates from the mean in terms of standard deviations. We
searched for the Z-score for a Mirchi gentle's 100-day endurance on this expedition. The
mantra that reveals the Z-score is:

Z=(X-µ)/σ

Where:The heroic value of interest, X, continues to be 100 days.The respectable mean, or

average life expectancy, remains steadfastly at 90 days.The trustworthy standard deviation,, is
a valiant 10 days.

After calling up this strange calculation, the Z-score appears:

Z=(100-90)/2=1

The Disclosure of Likelihood, Stage 2

We set out to uncover the open door hidden among the records of a typical general
conveyance job area with the Z-score by our side. This table, which is based on an old
composition, reveals the intimate information about probabilities associated to Z-scores.

Our goal is to quantify the likelihood that the Z-score is not just considerably below one but
also equal to or lower than it (P (Z 1)). Our enigmatic prophet, the common dispersion table,
established that P (Z 1) is around 0.8413.

The revelation is made obvious in this way: there is an exciting probability of about 0.8413,
or 84.13%. That is the opportunity for a randomly selected group of Mirchi lights from the
part to proceed gallantly for 100 days.

In summary, the exploration of the mysterious world of measurements yields an estimated

84.13% probability. According to this prediction, a randomly selected group of Mirchi lights
from the creation parcel will endure the test of time and shine for 100 days, guided by the
average and preferred deviation of their lives and under the assumption of a typical
dispersion.
Ans-3.b.

Stacked Bar
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

Micro Small Medium

Reasons for Choosing a Stacked Bar Diagram:

Amount of Lucidity: The main objective is to provide a fair, evident assessment of the
contributions made by Small, Medium, and Mature businesses to the overall scope of
MSMEs in each region of Uttarakhand. This is accomplished with a stacked bar shape, which
introduces those commitments side by side inside each portion. Understanding the
distribution of MSME classes throughout the state requires understanding this apparent
distinction.

Part-to-finish Perception: Part-to-entire relationships are inherently present in stacked bar

diagrams. The entire range of MSMEs for each region is represented by a bar in the chart.
Sections inside these bars discuss the Miniature, Little, and Medium MSME classes. This
divide takes into account how each kind increases the overall number of MSMEs in a given
area. Actually, it divides the whole into its individual added substances.

smart region Facts: Uttarakhand is a country having several financial games spread out
around its territory. The MSME component operates with a region-by-region distinction of
the stacked bar outline. Partners can benefit from insights into nearby iterations of the types
of organizations by assessing the sizes of Miniature, Little, and Medium firms in each
segment. Policymakers and strategists can adapt their systems to different areas in light of
this assessment.
Stacked bar diagrams are recognized for their clarity and ease of translation. They are also
widely used. They are organic and hardly need explanation. Each location is referred to as a
single bar, and for improved clarity, parts of the bars are frequently covertly coded. This
strategy ensures that the framework is present and reasonable to a wide objective market,
regardless of their familiarity with data representation methods. The distinct distinction made
possible by color coding enhances clarity and enables viewers to distinguish between MSME
classes with ease.

Conclusion:

The choice of a stacked bar graph as the best visualization method for demonstrating the
commitment of Small, Medium, and Large Associations to the MSMEs in Uttarakhand is
backed by the graph's reasonableness in several fundamental areas. It successfully expresses
expressions of clarity and openness, effectively conveys the part-to-entire link, works with
regional correlations, and controls the expense of a justifiable basis for close inspection. This
decision ensures that the realities are presented to a large audience in an illuminating and
justifiable manner, making it an excellent tool for disseminating knowledge throughout
MSME classes within the state.