UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA

ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH VICE-RECTOR

ACTIVITIES GUIDE AND EVALUATION RUBRIC

PROJECT EVALUATION FORMAT

In the study, "Evaluation of wind energy projects in Colombia under

the real options approach explores different methodologies for
evaluating wind power generation projects in Colombia", firstly, an
explanation is given on the Real Options Approach (ROA), which
allows combining flexibility in decision making and the possibility of
considering the different trajectories that can follow the value of a
project to the future. Then, in Guajira, Colombia, a project of a wind
generation plant with a capacity of 100 megawatts (MW). This is the
information that is made with the base in the box of the discounted;
projections are made of the situation of the box at 21 years, which is
approximately the average period of the useful life of wind turbines.
Subsequently, an evaluation of the wind energy project in Colombia is
carried out under the ROA approach, estimating its extended value,
Summary of
including a real expansion option. To estimate volatility, in this study
the article
we analyze the processes of variables with high frequency in it, such as
the price of energy and winds. The project under study considers the
expansion option, it is a minor escalation to then expand the capacity
of the plant without incurring again some expenses. The study
concludes with the identification of this real option of expansion that
makes the project viable that presents a VPN without negative
flexibility. The prevailing factor methodology overestimates volatility
and does not take into account the variables that decrease the risk of
the project. The volatility of the replica portfolio shows, in its lower
volatility, the lower risks in these technologies in Europe where there
is a greater development of them. The real options approach obtained
the greatest value in comparison with the traditional VPN method
without flexibility, in order to obtain concrete results in Colombia.

Purpose of the Apply the Real Options Approach (ROA) to the valuation of a wind
article energy project in Guajira, Colombia.

Main  Geographic location.

characteristics
of the wind
project
 Wind speed (if referenced).

Datos

País Colombia

Población Cabo de la Vela y Puerto Bolívar (La Guajira)

12°13′59″N 72°01′59″OCoordenadas: 12°13′59″N

Coordenadas
72°01′59″O (mapa)

Propietario EPM

Inicio de 2004
actividad

Funcionamiento

Estado En funcionamiento

Combustible Viento
empleado

Potencia 19,5 MW

 Amount of energy produced in megawatts.

Capacity of 100 megawatts (MW)

 Advantages

• Tax exemptions or rebates and emission reduction certificates.

• Environmentally friendly.
• Use of renewable resources
• Contributes to sustainable development
Advantages
• Generates local employment
and
disadvantages
Disadvantages

• They need big upfront investments

• Doesn't allow energy storage
• The development of the project is progressive and in the long
term

Positive

• It will encourage the creation of jobs in the area.

• Environmental impacts are manageable compared to those
Positive and generated in projects such as hydroelectric.
negative • Power generation from the movement of blades thanks to winds
impacts of the and not conventional energy sources or non-renewable resources.
project
Negative

• Using large areas for the creation of wind parks.

• Lack of investment for the development of these projects

Technical
considerations
(comments
from the work
team)