water

Article
The Groundwater-Energy-Food Nexus in Iran’s
Agricultural Sector: Implications for Water Security
Atena Mirzaei 1 , Bahram Saghafian 1, *, Ali Mirchi 2, * and Kaveh Madani 3,4
1 Department of Civil Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University,
Tehran 1477893855, Iran
2 Department of Biosystems and Agricultural Engineering, Oklahoma State University, 111 Agricultural Hall,
Stillwater, OK 74078, USA
3 The Whitney and Betty MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies, Yale University,
New Haven, CT 06520, USA
4 Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University, SE-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden
* Correspondence: b.saghafian@gmail.com (B.S.); amirchi@okstate.edu (A.M.)




Received: 6 August 2019; Accepted: 2 September 2019; Published: 4 September 2019


Abstract: This paper presents the first groundwater-energy-food (GEF) nexus study of Iran’s
agronomic crops based on national and provincial datasets and firsthand estimates of agricultural
groundwater withdrawal. We use agronomic crop production, water withdrawal, and energy
consumption data to estimate groundwater withdrawal from electric-powered irrigation wells and
examine agronomic productivity in Iran’s 31 provinces through the lens of GEF nexus. The ex-post
GEF analysis sheds light on some of the root causes of the nation’s worsening water shortage
problems. Access to highly subsidized water (surface water and groundwater) and energy has
been the backbone of agricultural expansion policies in Iran, supporting employment in agrarian
communities. Consequently, water use for agronomic crop production has greatly overshot the
renewable water supply capacity of the country, making water bankruptcy a serious national security
threat. Significant groundwater table decline across the country and increasing energy consumption
underscore dysfunctional feedback relations between agricultural water and energy price and
groundwater withdrawal in an inefficient agronomic sector. Thus, it is essential to implement holistic
policy reforms aimed at reducing agricultural water consumption to alleviate the looming water
bankruptcy threats, which can lead to the loss of numerous agricultural jobs in the years to come.

Keywords: food-energy-water nexus; agronomy; water management; sustainability; Iran

1. Introduction
Iran is currently facing extreme water and environmental management challenges [1–8].
The country’s technological approach to address water shortages through a large network of dams,
inter-basin water transfer projects, and groundwater withdrawal has proven inadequate as water
demands keep growing in the face of dwindling natural water supply and newly developed surface
water and groundwater resources [1,2]. Consequently, Iran is grappling with a state of “water
bankruptcy” [2] that threatens the sustainability of one of the world’s most ancient and thriving
civilizations. Rising water stress will likely increase the risk of water conflicts [9–13] driven by the
country’s water management issues. There is widespread evidence of water security becoming a
major concern from a national security standpoint, including extensive drying-up of water bodies,
frequent sand and dust storms, widespread groundwater table decline, deteriorating water quality, and
increasing competition and conflict over limited water resources [1,2]. These problems are rampant to
varying levels in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where prolonged droughts have,

Water 2019, 11, 1835; doi:10.3390/w11091835 www.mdpi.com/journal/water

 Iran’s water resources are state-regulated and supplied at a minimal cost. Access to cheap water
(surface water and groundwater) and energy has been the backbone of agricultural expansion
policies, which are an important support mechanism for rural employment in Iran. Currently, about
20% of the jobs in the country belong to the agricultural sector, which uses more than 90% of Iran’s
total
Water water
2019, withdrawals and contributes approximately 10% of the GDP. Since rural water and energy
11, 1835 2 of 15
(electricity and diesel) are very cheap, agricultural activities are effectively only curtailed due to
severe water shortages, manifested in the lack of surface water and drastic groundwater table decline
in part, been a to
as opposed catalyst of political
prohibitive water unrest and social
and energy instability
prices. in countries
Water shortages like Syria
are variable [14].
due to Likewise,
diverse
theclimate
potential links between
conditions, drought-induced
which range water scarcity
from arid/semi-arid and
in the vast local conflicts
majority have been
of the country a source of
to subtropical
in the in
concern Caspian Sea coastal
Sub-Saharan strip
Africa (Figure 1). On average, Iran receives less than one-third of the global
[15].
average
Iran’s rainfall. Most of the
water resources are country receivesand
state-regulated lesssupplied
than 100 atmm of rain per
a minimal year,
cost. although
Access in small
to cheap water
areas water
(surface the average annual rainfall
and groundwater) andreaches
energy more thanthe
has been 1000 mm. Consequently,
backbone of agriculturalthe country policies,
expansion relies
heavily
which on important
are an groundwater to cope
support with the intermittency
mechanism of surfaceinwater
for rural employment Iran.supply to sustain
Currently, about irrigated
20% of the
agriculture.
jobs in the country belong to the agricultural sector, which uses more than 90% of Iran’s total water
Iran launched
withdrawals food self-sufficiency
and contributes approximatelyinitiatives
10% ofafter the Revolution
the GDP. Since ruralofwater
1979, especially
and energy during the
(electricity
Iran‒Iraq war, when food shortages were perceived as a primary national security
and diesel) are very cheap, agricultural activities are effectively only curtailed due to severe water threat. The push
for food self-sufficiency was justified in the postwar era because of lasting economic sanctions that
shortages, manifested in the lack of surface water and drastic groundwater table decline as opposed to
limited Iran’s ability to access global markets [1,16]. As a result, self-sufficiency in staple crops (e.g.,
prohibitive water and energy prices. Water shortages are variable due to diverse climate conditions,
wheat) has become a strategic goal to ensure food security, encouraging the expansion of the
which range from arid/semi-arid in the vast majority of the country to subtropical in the Caspian Sea
agricultural sector through heavy subsidies despite massive adverse impacts on the nation’s water
coastal strip (Figure 1). On average, Iran receives less than one-third of the global average rainfall.
and land resources (e.g., groundwater depletion, soil salinization, and water quality problems). The
Most of the country receives less than 100 mm of rain per year, although in small areas the average
policy has contributed to increased food production without necessarily creating a more nutritious
annual
diet. rainfall
However, reaches more
serious than about
concerns 1000 mm. Consequently,
depending the country
on other nations reliescrops
for staple heavily on groundwater
persist to this day,
to cope
making with the intermittency
proposals of food andofvirtual
surface water
water supply
imports to sustain
highly irrigated agriculture.
controversial.

Figure1.1.Map
Figure Map of
of Iran
Iran and
and its
its 31
31 provinces.
provinces.

This
Iran paper presents
launched the first groundwater‒energy‒food
food self-sufficiency (GEF) nexus
initiatives after the Revolution of study of Iran’s agronomic
1979, especially during the
crops based on national and provincial scale datasets and firsthand estimates of
Iran-Iraq war, when food shortages were perceived as a primary national security threat. The push for groundwater
withdrawal
food in the was
self-sufficiency agronomic
justifiedsector.
in theThe interlinkages
postwar between
era because food,economic
of lasting energy, and water (FEW)
sanctions are
that limited
increasingly recognized in the fledgling FEW nexus literature [17–24], offering high-level insights
Iran’s ability to access global markets [1,16]. As a result, self-sufficiency in staple crops (e.g., wheat) has
into efficient
become resource
a strategic goal use for FEW
to ensure security.
food Theencouraging
security, GEF nexus poses a challenging,
the expansion yetagricultural
of the critical resource
sector
through heavy subsidies despite massive adverse impacts on the nation’s water andTo
management problem that is present in different forms in many countries [25–32]. date,
land little
resources
attention has been paid to the crippling long-term side effects of inefficient resource management
(e.g., groundwater depletion, soil salinization, and water quality problems). The policy has contributed
from a GEF nexus perspective. Our ex-post analysis illuminates the ramifications of an unsustainable
to increased food production without necessarily creating a more nutritious diet. However, serious
concerns about depending on other nations for staple crops persist to this day, making proposals of
food and virtual water imports highly controversial.
This paper presents the first groundwater-energy-food (GEF) nexus study of Iran’s agronomic crops
based on national and provincial scale datasets and firsthand estimates of groundwater withdrawal
in the agronomic sector. The interlinkages between food, energy, and water (FEW) are increasingly
recognized in the fledgling FEW nexus literature [17–24], offering high-level insights into efficient
resource use for FEW security. The GEF nexus poses a challenging, yet critical resource management
problem that is present in different forms in many countries [25–32]. To date, little attention has
been paid to the crippling long-term side effects of inefficient resource management from a GEF
nexus perspective. Our ex-post analysis illuminates the ramifications of an unsustainable GEF nexus
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 3 of 15
Water 2019, 11, 1835 3 of 15

GEF nexus for Iran’s water security, highlighting policy insights to mitigate extensive water shortages
andIran’s
for groundwater sustainability
water security, concerns
highlighting policyacross the to
insights country.
mitigateWe use province-level
extensive water shortagesdata and
for
agronomic crop
groundwater production,
sustainability wateracross
concerns withdrawal, andWeelectric
the country. energy consumption
use province-level to estimate
data for agronomic crop
groundwater withdrawal from Iran’s electric-powered agricultural wells. Furthermore,
production, water withdrawal, and electric energy consumption to estimate groundwater withdrawal we use crop
acreage data along with the estimated agronomic groundwater withdrawal and electric
from Iran’s electric-powered agricultural wells. Furthermore, we use crop acreage data along with the energy
consumption
estimated to illustrate
agronomic agronomic
groundwater productivity
withdrawal in Iran’senergy
and electric 31 provinces through
consumption the lens of
to illustrate the GEF
agronomic
nexus. Monitoring GEF linkages facilitates an objective assessment of sustainable
productivity in Iran’s 31 provinces through the lens of the GEF nexus. Monitoring GEF linkages resource
management
facilitates to safeguard
an objective GEF security.
assessment of sustainable resource management to safeguard GEF security.

2. Materials and Methods

2.

2.1.
2.1. Land and Water Requirements of
of Agronomic
Agronomic Crops
Crops
Since it it is
is located
located in in an
an arid/semi-arid
arid/semi-arid climate,
climate, only
only about
about 10.5%
10.5% of Iran’s
Iran’s land
land mass
mass is is deemed
deemed
suitable for agricultural activities, with only 2.6% classified as very good (0.4%) or good (2.2%)
agricultural land [9]. The areas under agronomic and horticultural cultivation cover 6% and 1.4% of of
the
the country’s
country’s totaltotal area,
area, respectively
respectively [33,34].
[33,34]. Over the past three decades, Iran has strived to provide provide
sufficient
sufficientfood foodfor foritsitsgrowing
growing population,
population, which
which hashas
increased by almost
increased by almostone million per year
one million pertoyear
reach
to
nearly 80 million
reach nearly in 2017. in
80 million Based
2017.onBased
long-term averages, averages,
on long-term wheat (200wheat kg per(200
capita)
kg has
per persistently
capita) has
dominated
persistentlythe food basket
dominated of Iranians,
the food basket while potatoes
of Iranians, (60potatoes
while kg per capita)
(60 kg and rice (50and
per capita) kg per
ricecapita)
(50 kg
constitute
per capita) constitute the other two major sources of carbohydrates. With a per capita share of 67 are
the other two major sources of carbohydrates. With a per capita share of 67 kg, tomatoes kg,
among
tomatoes theare
topamong
vegetablesthe topin the annual food
vegetables in thebasket.
annualAmong cropsAmong
food basket. that are crops
mainly used
that arefor vegetable
mainly used
oil
forextraction
vegetable (20 kg per capita)
oil extraction andper
(20 kg as capita)
feed forand livestock
as feedandforpoultry,
livestock grain
andmaize andgrain
poultry, soybeans
maizehaveand
increased substantially in demand over the past 15 years [9]. Also,
soybeans have increased substantially in demand over the past 15 years [9]. Also, other fodder other fodder products have an
important
products have role in anfeeding
important livestock
role inand poultry.
feeding livestock and poultry.
We
We used agronomic crop acreage data for six
used agronomic crop acreage data for six major categories of crops in Iran including cereals,
beans,
beans, industrial
industrial crops,
crops, vegetables,
vegetables,cucurbits,
cucurbits,and andforage.
forage. Because
Because of of the
the importance
importance of of rice
rice as
as aa staple
staple
food
food in inthe
thecountry,
country,we we considered
considered it separately
it separately as aasseventh cropcrop
a seventh category. Agricultural
category. production
Agricultural data
production
also
data also include agronomic crop production and land productivity, defined as production (ton)area
include agronomic crop production and land productivity, defined as production (ton) per unit per
of
unitland
areaunder cultivation
of land under (ha). Figure 2(ha).
cultivation shows the 2015
Figure province-level
2 shows the 2015 distribution
province-level of agronomic
distributionand of
horticultural
agronomic and crophorticultural
acreages in Iran cropbased on data
acreages frombased
in Iran Ahmadi on etdata
al. [33,34]. Over 90%
from Ahmadi of the
et al. cultivated
[33,34]. Over
area
90% belongs to the seven
of the cultivated areacategories
belongs toof agronomic
the production
seven categories in five provinces
of agronomic production(e.g.,inmore than 99%
five provinces
in Khuzestan
(e.g., more than Province). There is more
99% in Khuzestan horticultural
Province). There is crop
moreacreage than agronomic
horticultural crop acreage crops
thaninagronomic
the three
provinces of Yazd, Hormozgan, and Kerman. Twenty-nine
crops in the three provinces of Yazd, Hormozgan, and Kerman. Twenty-nine and 21 provinces and 21 provinces have some level of
have
bean
someand levelrice
of production,
bean and rice respectively.
production, Five other agronomic
respectively. crops,agronomic
Five other namely cereals,
crops, industrial crops,
namely cereals,
vegetables,
industrial crops, cucurbits, and forage
vegetables, crops,and
cucurbits, are forage
cultivated in all
crops, areprovinces.
cultivated in Figure 3 summarizes
all provinces. Figurethe3
latest available agronomic production data (2015) for the seven crop
summarizes the latest available agronomic production data (2015) for the seven crop categories categories cultivated over nearly
11.4 millionover
cultivated ha [34].
nearly 11.4 million ha [34].

Figure 2. Province-level
Figure 2. Province-level distribution of agronomic and horticultural crop acreages in Iran in
in 2015
2015
(Sources of data: Ahmadi et al. [33,34]).
(Sources of data: Ahmadi et al. [33,34]).
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 15
Water 2019, 11, 1835 4 of 15
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 4 of 15

Figure 3. Agronomic production of seven crop categories in Iran in 2015 (Sources of data: Ahmadi et
al. [33,34]).
Figure
Figure 3. Agronomic production
3. production of
of seven
sevencrop
cropcategories
categoriesininIran
Iraninin2015
2015(Sources
(Sourcesofofdata:
data:Ahmadi
Ahmadiet
et
al.al. [33,34]).
[33,34]).
We used the NETWAT crop water calculator [35], Iran’s National Water Resources Development
Plan,Weand
We used
used the
the NETWAT
a survey crop
cropwater
of provincial
NETWAT calculator
extension
water agents[35],
calculator Iran’s
Iran’s aNational
to obtain
[35], dataset Water
National Resources
of average
Water waterDevelopment
Resources demands for
Development
Plan, and
different a survey
crops in of provincial
Iran. NETWAT extension
was agents
developed to obtain
based a
on dataset
Iran’s
Plan, and a survey of provincial extension agents to obtain a dataset of average water demands of average
National water
Water demands
Resources for
for different
Development
different crops crops
Plan, in Iran.
whichNETWAT
in Iran. NETWAT
provides estimateswas developed
was developedof waterbasedbased
demands on Iran’s National
for a variety
on Iran’s National Water
of crops Resources
Waterproduced
Resources in
Development
different Plan,
provinces. which
NETWAT provides estimates
estimates of water
evapotranspiration demands(ET) for
for
Development Plan, which provides estimates of water demands for a variety of crops produced in a variety
Iran’s of crops
agricultural produced
crops in
using
different
the FAO provinces.
different provinces.NETWAT
Penman–Monteith NETWAT estimates
equation evapotranspiration
[36]
estimates and a database of(ET)
evapotranspiration forfor
available
(ET) Iran’s agricultural
meteorological
Iran’s crops
records
agricultural using
crops the
inusing
Iran
FAO
since Penman–Monteith
the FAOthe Penman–Monteith
1960s [35]. In casesequation
where [36]
equation and
crop
[36] aand
waterdatabase
ademands of available
database are meteorological
of unavailable
available records
from NETWAT
meteorological in Iranin
(e.g.,
records since
barley
Iran
the
and 1960s [35].
industrial In cases
crops in where
some crop water
provinces), demands
we used are unavailable
estimates of crop from
water
since the 1960s [35]. In cases where crop water demands are unavailable from NETWAT (e.g., barley NETWAT
demand (e.g.,
from barley
the and
National
industrial
Water cropscrops
Resources
and industrial in some provinces),
Development
in some Planwe to
provinces), used estimates
obtain
we of crop
usedaestimates
consistent ofwater demand
province-scale
crop water from
demand the
dataset
fromNational
ofthe
crop Water
water
National
Resources
demand. Development
Since each Plan
province to obtain
typically a consistent
consists province-scale
of several dataset
agricultural
Water Resources Development Plan to obtain a consistent province-scale dataset of crop water of crop
districts water
with demand.
different Since
crop
each
water province typically
requirements, a consists of
representative several agricultural
district and districts
associated with
crop different
water crop
requirements
demand. Since each province typically consists of several agricultural districts with different crop water requirements,
were identified
afor
representative
each
water province
requirements,district
based and
on aassociated ofcrop
surveydistrict
a representative water
provincial
and requirements
extension
associated crop wereused
agents,
water identified forwere
each identified
to characterize
requirements province
average
based on
conditions.a survey
Responsesof provincial
were extension
received fromagents,
25 used to
provincial characterize
extension average
offices,
for each province based on a survey of provincial extension agents, used to characterize average conditions.
naming one Responses
irrigation
were received
district
conditions. from 25 provincial
as representative
Responses were extension
of thereceived
overall fromoffices,
groundwater naming
conditions
25 provincial one irrigation
withinoffices,
extension district
their as representative
respective
naming provinces.
one irrigation of
For
the
the overall
district groundwater
six provinces that didconditions
as representative not
of thereturn within
overall their respective
thegroundwater
questionnaire, we provinces.
used the
conditions For
average
within theconditions
their six provinces
respective of that
all did not
irrigation
provinces. For
return the
districts questionnaire,
within each we
province used
to the average
characterize conditions
the average of all irrigation
groundwater districts
conditions
the six provinces that did not return the questionnaire, we used the average conditions of all irrigation within
in theeach province
agricultural
to characterize
plains.
districts within4the
Figure average
illustrates
each provincegroundwater
thetoaverage conditions
province-level
characterize in the
the average cropagricultural plains.
water requirements
groundwater Figure
conditions for 4the
in theillustrates
seven cropthe
agricultural
average
categoriesprovince-level
examined
plains. Figure incrop water
this the
4 illustrates study. requirements
average for the seven
province-level crop categories
crop water requirements examined
for theinseven
this study.
crop
categories examined in this study.

Figure 4. Average province-level crop water

water demand
demand for
for the
the seven
seven crop
crop categories
categories in
in 2015.
2015.
Figure 4. Average province-level crop water demand for the seven crop categories in 2015.
Water 2019, 11, 1835 5 of 15

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11, xx FOR
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15
2.2. Groundwater Withdrawal
2.2. Groundwater Withdrawal
Groundwater is the primary source of water in the majority of Iran’s provinces. According
to the provincial
Groundwater water census
is the conducted
primary source ofinwater2011,ingroundwater
the majority of withdrawal from wells
Iran’s provinces. provided
According to
the provincial water census conducted in 2011, groundwater withdrawal
approximately 55 billion cubic meters (BCM) of the country’s total water supply (about 95 BCM), from wells provided
approximately
accounting 55 billion
for about 60% ofcubic meters
the total water (BCM) of the
supply. country’s of
Twenty-one total water supply
31 Iranian (about
provinces 95 BCM),
predominantly
useaccounting
groundwater for toabout 60% water
meet their of thedemands
total water supply.
(Figure Twenty-one of
5). Approximately 50% 31ofIranian provinces
Iran’s groundwater
predominantly
withdrawal occursuse groundwater
in five provinces to meet
(i.e., their
Fars: 14%,water demands
Kerman: 12%,(Figure
Khorasan 5). Razavi:
Approximately 50% of8%,
11%, Isfahan:
Iran’s groundwater withdrawal occurs in five provinces (i.e., Fars: 14%, Kerman:
and Markazi: 5%), which are located in arid/semi-arid regions (Figure 1). Tehran Province, which has 12%, Khorasan
theRazavi:
largest11%, Isfahan:(about
population 8%, and17%Markazi:
of the 5%), which79.9
country’s are million
located in arid/semi-arid
population regions
in 2017 [37]),(Figure 1).
ranks sixth
in Tehran
terms ofProvince,
groundwater whichwithdrawal
has the largest
(4.54%) population (about 17%
due to extensive of water
surface the country’s 79.9 million
development plans to
population in 2017 [37]), ranks sixth in terms of groundwater withdrawal (4.54%) due to extensive
maintain the high reliability of the water supply to support its continuous growth, especially in the
surface water development plans to maintain the high reliability of the water supply to support its
metropolitan area of Greater Tehran, the capital. The top five provinces in terms of the percentage
continuous growth, especially in the metropolitan area of Greater Tehran, the capital. The top five
of water supply provided by groundwater include Hamedan, South Khorasan, Kerman, Khorasan
provinces in terms of the percentage of water supply provided by groundwater include Hamedan,
Razavi, and Zanjan, which, along with Markazi Province, use groundwater to meet more than 80% of
South Khorasan, Kerman, Khorasan Razavi, and Zanjan, which, along with Markazi Province, use
their total water demand. In all but four provinces (i.e., two relatively water-rich northern provinces,
groundwater to meet more than 80% of their total water demand. In all but four provinces (i.e., two
as relatively
well as two provinces
water-rich in the central
northern plateau
provinces, of Iran),
as well as twomore than 75%
provinces in theofcentral
the groundwater withdrawal
plateau of Iran), more
is allocated to the agricultural sector, with 20 provinces using up to 85% of their
than 75% of the groundwater withdrawal is allocated to the agricultural sector, with 20 provinces total groundwater
withdrawal
using up to for85%
agriculture (Figure
of their total 6).
groundwater withdrawal for agriculture (Figure 6).

12 Surface Water (BCM/yr) Groundwater (BCM/yr)

Water Withdrawal (BCM/yr)

10
8
6
4
2
0
Alborz
Ardebil

Ilam
Booshehr

Chah. Mah. Bakht.

Kerman

Markazi

Hamedan
Qom

Kermanshah

Lorestan
East Az.
West Az.

Isfahan

Tehran

S. Khorasan

N. Khorasan
Khouzestan
Zanjan
Semnan
Sist. & Balouch.

Kurdistan

Golestan
Gilan

Mazandaran
Khorasan Razavi

Fars
Qazvin

Kohk. & Boier.

Hormozgan

Yazd

Province

Figure
Figure 5.5.Total
Totalsurface
surfacewater
waterand
and groundwater
groundwater withdrawal
withdrawalinindifferent
differentprovinces
provincesinin2011.
2011.

16 Total Groundwater (BCM/yr) Agricultural Groundwater (BCM/yr)

Water Withdrawal (BCM/yr)

14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Alborz

Kerman
Tehran
Chah. Mah. Bakht.

Kermanshah

Lorestan
East Az.
West Az.

Isfahan

Zanjan

Qom

Golestan

Mazandaran
Ardebil

Khorasan Razavi

Fars
Ilam
Booshehr

Markazi

Hamedan
S. Khorasan

N. Khorasan
Khouzestan

Semnan
Sist. & Balouch.

Kurdistan
Qazvin

Gilan
Kohk. & Boier.

Hormozgan

Yazd

Province

Figure 6. 6.Total
Figure Totaland
andagricultural
agriculturalgroundwater
groundwater withdrawal indifferent
withdrawal in differentIranian
Iranianprovinces
provincesinin 2011.
2011.
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Groundwater sources include deep wells (more than 50 m), semi-deep wells (less than 50 m),
qanatsGroundwater
(gently sloping
Groundwater sources include
include deep
underground
sources wells
tunnels
deep (see(more
wells than
[38] and
(more than the50 m),
m), semi-deep
50references wells
therein),
semi-deep and(less
wells than
springs
(less 50
50 m),
than(Figure m),
qanats
7). In (gently
an average sloping
year, underground
the majority oftunnels
the (see
groundwater[38] andis the references
extracted from therein),
deep
qanats (gently sloping underground tunnels (see [38] and the references therein), and springs (Figure and
wells springs
(about (Figure
48%) and
7).
7). In
springsan average
(25%) year,
followed the majority
by of
semi-deep the groundwater
wells (18%) is
and extracted
qanats from
(9%).
In an average year, the majority of the groundwater is extracted from deep wells (about 48%) and deep
The wells (about
country is 48%) and
currently
springs (25%)
undergoing
springs (25%) followed
a followed
shift fromby by semi-deep wellswells
shallow/semi-deep
semi-deep (18%)
groundwater
(18%) and
and qanats qanats
sources
(9%). (9%).
to deeper
The countryTheis country
wells. In recent
currently isundergoing
currently
years (i.e.,
undergoing
afrom
shift2002
from a shift from shallow/semi-deep
to shallow/semi-deep
2017), while the amount groundwater
of water withdrawn
groundwater sources
sources to from deeper to deeper
springs, wells.
wells.semi-deep In recent
In recentwells,
years and years (i.e.,
(i.e.,qanats
from
fromdecreased
has
2002 2002
to to 2017),
2017), while while
by 42%, the amount
the 12%,
amount andof47%, ofrespectively,
water water withdrawn
withdrawn fromfrom
groundwater springs,
springs, semi-deep
withdrawal
semi-deep from
wells, wells,
deepand
and qanats
wells
qanats has
has
has decreased
increased by by
more 42%,
than12%,
5% and
to 47%,
ease respectively,
the growing groundwater
water deficit. withdrawal
On the
decreased by 42%, 12%, and 47%, respectively, groundwater withdrawal from deep wells has increased whole, from
the deep wells
country’s has
total
increased
groundwater
by by
more than 5% more than
withdrawal 5%
to ease the has to ease
declined
growing the growing
by deficit.
water water
approximately deficit.
On the whole, On
18% despitethe whole, the
population
the country’s country’s
growth and
total groundwater total
groundwater
intermittent withdrawal
prolonged has
droughts declined
during by approximately
2002–2017, likely 18%
due
withdrawal has declined by approximately 18% despite population growth and intermittent despite
to a population
depletion of growth
high-quality
prolonged and
intermittent
groundwater prolonged
resources droughts
and the during
intrusion 2002–2017,
of waters of likely
marginal due to
quality.a
droughts during 2002–2017, likely due to a depletion of high-quality groundwater resources and the depletion
This decline of high-quality
has occurred
groundwater
despite
intrusion resources
heightened
of waters of and the
permitted
marginal andintrusion of decline
unpermitted
quality. This waters of marginal
groundwater
has occurred quality.
development This declinepermitted
by installing
despite heightened has occurred
more wells
and
despite
(Figure heightened
8). The numberpermitted
of and
registered unpermitted
deep wells groundwater
increased development
from 127,800
unpermitted groundwater development by installing more wells (Figure 8). The number of registered in by
2002installing
to about more
195,000wells
in
(Figure
deep 8).
2017, wells The
an increase number
of more
increased of
from registered
than 52%. in
127,800 deep
Over wells
thetosame
2002 increased
about period,
195,000 from 127,800
theinnumber
2017, an in 2002
ofincrease to
registered about
of semi-deep195,000
more thanwells in
52%.
2017, the
Over an increase
increased by more
same of than
period,more than
the80%,
number 52%.ofOver
rising from the same
33,000
registered toperiod,
about the
semi-deep number
60,000.
wells There of are
increased registered
byalso
more semi-deep
a large
than number
80%, wells
of
rising
increased
unregistered by more
wells, than 80%,
although rising
the exactfrom 33,000
number is to
notabout
known. 60,000. There are
from 33,000 to about 60,000. There are also a large number of unregistered wells, although the exact also a large number of
unregistered wells,
number is not known. although the exact number is not known.

Figure 7. Historical trend of groundwater withdrawal from different sources in Iran.

Figure 7. Historical trend of groundwater withdrawal from different sources in Iran.
Figure 7. Historical trend of groundwater withdrawal from different sources in Iran.

Figure
Figure 8. Number of
8. Number of registered
registered deep
deep and
and semi-deep
semi-deep water
water wells.
wells.
Figure 8. Number of registered deep and semi-deep water wells.
We applied three coefficients to total irrigated agricultural lands under agronomic crop production
We applied three coefficients to total irrigated agricultural lands under agronomic crop
to quantify
We appliedthe irrigation water supplied
three coefficients fromirrigated
to water
total electric-powered wells to meet the agronomic
agronomic crop
production to quantify the irrigation supplied agricultural lands
from electric-powered under wells to meetcrop the
water requirement.
production to quantifyOur focus
the on electric-powered
irrigation water wells
supplied was
from motivated
electric-powered by Iran’s
wellspolicy
to of using
meet the
agronomic crop water requirement. Our focus on electric-powered wells was motivated by Iran’s
electric-powered
agronomic pumps for
cropelectric-powered all
water requirement. registered
Our groundwater wells, which became effective in 2010. The three
policy of using pumps forfocus on electric-powered
all registered groundwaterwells wells, was motivated
which becameby Iran’s
effective
coefficients
policy ofThe include:
using (1) the ratio between
electric-powered pumps (1) agricultural
for groundwater
all registered groundwater withdrawal
wells, and total
which becameagricultural
effective
in 2010. three coefficients include: the ratio between agricultural groundwater withdrawal
water
in 2010. withdrawal; (2) the ratioinclude:
between (1)irrigation well withdrawals (i.e.,groundwater
excluding groundwater
and totalThe three coefficients
agricultural water withdrawal; the the
(2) ratioratio
between
betweenagricultural
irrigation withdrawal
well withdrawals (i.e.,
from qanats
and total and springs) and withdrawal;
agricultural total agricultural groundwater withdrawal; and (3) withdrawals
the ratio between
excluding groundwaterwater from qanats and springs) (2) the ratio between
and total irrigation
agricultural well
groundwater (i.e.,
withdrawal;
groundwater supplied from electric-powered wellsand
andtotal
totalagricultural
agricultural groundwater
groundwater withdrawal;
excluding
and (3) thegroundwater
ratio betweenfrom qanats and
groundwater springs)
supplied from electric-powered wells and total withdrawal
agricultural
(i.e.,
and (3)boththeregistered
ratio and unregistered
between groundwater electric
supplied and diesel
from irrigation wells).
electric-powered In
andaddition,
wellsdiesel total a fourth
agricultural
groundwater withdrawal (i.e., both registered and unregistered electric and irrigation wells).
coefficient
groundwater
In was applied
addition, awithdrawal to increase
(i.e., both
fourth coefficient irrigation
wasregistered water
applied toand withdrawal
unregistered
increase from
irrigation electric-powered
electric
waterand wells
from in
diesel irrigation
withdrawal order
wells).
electric-
to
In account
addition,
powered for
wells irrigation
a fourth
in order water
coefficient
to account losses
wasforbefore
applied the crop water
to increase
irrigation requirement
irrigation
water losses before water is fully
withdrawal
the crop met. The irrigation
from electric-
water requirement is
powered wells in order to account for irrigation water losses before the crop water requirement is
 Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 7 of 15
Water 2019, 11, 1835 7 of 15
Water
fully2019,
met.11,The
x FOR PEER REVIEW
irrigation water
loss coefficient was obtained for each province based on 7 of 15
comparing
the consumptive water use of crops and the crop water demand met through irrigation.
fully met.
water The irrigation
loss coefficient water lossfor
was obtained coefficient was obtained
each province based on for each province
comparing based on comparing
the consumptive water use
the
of consumptive
crops and the water
crop use
water
2.3. Energy Consumption of crops
demand and
met the crop
through water demand
irrigation. met through irrigation.

2.3. The energy

2.3. Energy
Energy Consumptionsource for extracting groundwater is electricity or diesel. The number of diesel-
Consumption
powered wells in Iran is decreasing, whereas electric-powered pumps are on the rise. The country’s
The
Theof
policy energy
energy
using source
source forfor
extracting
electric-poweredextractinggroundwater
pumps for allis groundwater
groundwater electricity or diesel.
is electricity The
or diesel.
wells number
currently of diesel-powered
Theoperating
number of diesel-a
without
wells
poweredin
permit wasIran is
wells decreasing,
in Iran
voted intoislaw whereas
decreasing, electric-powered
whereas electric-powered
by the Parliament pumps
in 2010. As a result,are on
pumps the rise.
thereare The country’s
on the rise.
is currently policy
The country’s
a push of
to convert
using
policy
diesel electric-powered
of
irrigation wells pumps
using electric-powered
(currently for pumps
all groundwater
55% for all
of total wellswells)
groundwater
irrigation currently
wells operating Thewithout
currently
to electric. ofathis
operating
effect permit
withoutwasais
change
voted
permit into
was law by
voted the Parliament
into law by in
the 2010. As
Parliament a result,
in there
2010. As is
a currently
result, a
there
observed in an upward trend in the electric energy consumption data (reflecting increasing number push
is to convert
currently a diesel
push irrigation
to convert
wells
diesel (currently
irrigation55%
of agricultural wellsof(currently
electric total
energyirrigation
55% ofwells)
customers andto
total electric.
irrigation
sale), The
andwells) effect of thisThe
to electric.
declining diesel change
effectisof
consumption observed
this
for changein anis
supplying
upward
observed trend
in anin the
upward electric
trendenergy
in the consumption
electric energy data (reflecting
consumption
groundwater for irrigation of agronomic crops (Figure 9). The average amount of groundwater increasing
data number
(reflecting of
increasingagricultural
number
electric energy
ofextracted
agricultural fromcustomers
electric and customers
energy
diesel-powered sale),
wellsand
fromdeclining
and2014 sale), diesel
and was
to 2016 consumption
declining
57% ofdiesel for supplying
consumption
the total groundwater groundwater
for withdrawal
supplying
for irrigation
groundwater
from of
wells, whichforagronomic
irrigation crops
is decreasing (Figure of
of agronomic
because 9).
cropsThe
the average9).
(Figure
reduction amount
in Thenumber
the of groundwater
average ofamount extracted
of
diesel wells. Figurefrom
groundwater 10a,b
diesel-powered
shows average groundwater withdrawal from electric and diesel irrigation wells from 2014 wells,
extracted from wells from
diesel-powered 2014 to
wells 2016
fromwas
2014 57% to of
2016the
wastotal
57% groundwater
of the total withdrawal
groundwater from
withdrawal
to 2016
which
from
and theis decreasing
wells, which
spatial because
is inofelectric
decreasing
variation thebecause
reductionof in
energy the
use the innumber
reduction of diesel
in wells.
the number
the agricultural sector ofFigure
each10a,b
in diesel wells.shows
province. average
Figure 10a,b
groundwater
shows average withdrawal
groundwater from electric and
withdrawal diesel
from irrigation
electric wells from
and diesel 2014 wells
irrigation to 2016
fromand2014the spatial
to 2016
variation in electric
and the spatial energyinuse
variation in theenergy
electric agricultural
use in sector in each province.
the agricultural sector in each province.

Figure 9. Electric and diesel energy consumption in Iran’s agricultural sector.

Figure9.9. Electric
Figure Electric and
and diesel
diesel energy
energy consumption
consumptionin
inIran’s
Iran’sagricultural
agriculturalsector.
sector.

(a) (b)
Figure
Figure 10.10.(a)(a)Average
Average groundwater
(a) groundwater withdrawal
withdrawal from
from electric
electric and
and diesel
diesel irrigation
irrigation
(b) wells
wells from
from 2014
2014 toto
2016;
2016; (b)(b) spatial
spatial distribution
distribution ofof electric
electric energy
energy consumption
consumption byby province.
province.
Figure 10. (a) Average groundwater withdrawal from electric and diesel irrigation wells from 2014 to
2.4.
2.4.Analysis
2016; (b)Metrics
Analysis spatial
Metrics distribution of electric energy consumption by province.

WeWeused
used three
threeproductivity
productivityindicators
indicatorstotoexamine
examinethe theGEF
GEFnexus
nexusininthe
theagronomy
agronomysector,
sector,
2.4. Analysis Metrics
including
including land productivity (production per unit cultivated land; kg/ha) for agronomiccrop
land productivity (production per unit cultivated land; kg/ha) for agronomic crop
We used
production, three productivity
groundwater indicators
productivity to examine
(production thegroundwater
per unit
unit GEF nexus in
groundwater the agronomy
consumption; 3 ),
sector,
kg/m
production, groundwater productivity (production per consumption; kg/m 3), and
including
and energy
energy land productivity
productivity
productivity (production
(production
(production perper per
unitunit unit
electric
electric cultivated
energy
energy land; kg/ha)
consumption;
consumption; forLarger
kg/Kwh).
kg/Kwh). agronomic
Larger crop
values
values of the
production, groundwater productivity (production per unit groundwater consumption; kg/m ), and 3

energy productivity (production per unit electric energy consumption; kg/Kwh). Larger values of the
Water 2019, 11, 1835 8 of 15

of the indicators show higher productivity with respect to the GEF resources. Since groundwater
withdrawals are estimated based on crop water demands, cultivated area, and irrigation efficiency,
groundwater productivity essentially represents crop productivity with respect to both cultivated
land and groundwater consumption. Likewise, because the estimated electric energy consumption
represents groundwater withdrawal, energy productivity characterizes the productivity considering
land, groundwater, and electric energy.
We evaluated the impact of groundwater withdrawal for agronomic crop production on the
average groundwater drawdown in each province. To this end, we estimated the consequent drawdown
in a hypothetical “average virtual aquifer” in each province as an abstract aggregate-level indicator of
groundwater status. Iranian water management agencies are run at the provincial level, even though
the aquifers do not follow jurisdictional boundaries. The average aquifer is assumed to have a surface
area equal to the sum of the areas of all the aquifers within the boundaries of a province. In addition, the
average virtual aquifer is assigned the arithmetic average storage coefficient and average drawdown of
different aquifers located fully or partially within a province. Relative groundwater depletion is then
calculated as a dimensionless index by dividing depleted groundwater volume in each province by
total groundwater withdrawal in the country (Equation (1)). The average aquifer status is evaluated
during 2009–2016, when measured drawdowns are available for all aquifers. Furthermore, we used a
groundwater vulnerability index, calculated as the product of three dimensionless factors, namely
relative groundwater depletion, percent groundwater-supplied drinking water, and relative provincial
groundwater withdrawal (Equation (2)):

RGDi = (Ai × Si × ∆hi )/TGWi (1)

GVIi = RGDi × PGDWi × RPGWi (2)

where for a province i:RGD = relative groundwater depletion (dimensionless) estimated as the ratio
between depleted groundwater volume (A × S × ∆h) and total groundwater withdrawal volume (TGW);
GVI = groundwater vulnerability index (dimensionless); PGDW = percent groundwater-supplied
drinking water (dimensionless) defined as the ratio between groundwater-supplied drinking water
(volume) and total drinking water supply (volume); and RPGW = relative provincial groundwater
withdrawal obtained as the ratio between groundwater withdrawal in each province (volume) and
total national groundwater withdrawal (volume); A = average aquifer surface area (area); S = average
aquifer storage coefficient (dimensionless); ∆h = groundwater table drawdown (length) [39].

3. Results and Discussion

Figure 11 illustrates land, groundwater, and energy productivity indicators for the seven categories
of agronomic crops produced in different provinces. A different picture of agronomic crop productivity
is obtained when the provinces are evaluated based on all three indicators as opposed to considering
each indicator individually. It can be seen that the GEF productivity of cereals, beans, and rice is
generally small in the majority of the provinces. The three water-rich provinces of Mazandaran, Gilan,
and Golestan, which occupy the northern coastal strip of Iran, have better GEF productivity for these
crops, especially in terms of electric energy use, likely due to high groundwater tables, followed by
the western provinces of Kurdistan, Kermanshah, and Lorestan. The production of industrial crops
(cotton, sugar cane, soybeans, sesame, canola, and tobacco) in southeastern and east central provinces
of Iran is notably inefficient based on the GEF productivity indicators. The remaining three agronomic
crop categories of cucurbits, vegetables, and forage have higher relative GEF-based productivity across
Iran, with the northern and western provinces outperforming the rest of the country.
Water 2019, 11, 1835 9 of 15
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 9 of 15

Figure 11. Provincial

Figure 11. Provincial (a–g)
(a–g) and
and national
national (h)
(h) agronomic
agronomic crop
crop productivity
productivity based
based on
on GEF
GEF productivity
productivity
indicators. Darker shades illustrate higher energy productivity (kg/Kwh) as a surrogate
indicators. Darker shades illustrate higher energy productivity (kg/Kwh) as a surrogate for GEF- for
GEF-nexus-based agronomic productivity.
nexus-based agronomic productivity.

Growing and relatively stable agronomic crop cultivation has been made possible at the expense
Growing and relatively stable agronomic crop cultivation has been made possible at the expense
of depleting groundwater resources, which until recently were managed as an unlimited resource
of depleting groundwater resources, which until recently were managed as an unlimited resource
exploited with very cheap energy. Figure 12 shows the estimated groundwater withdrawal for
exploited with very cheap energy. Figure 12 shows the estimated groundwater withdrawal for the
production of the examined agronomic crops and horticultural crops, along with the reported
groundwater withdrawal and the amount of groundwater that is available for use based on the
groundwater withdrawal in all the provinces exceeds allowable groundwater withdrawal for
agricultural and non-agricultural purposes; and (ii) estimated groundwater withdrawal for
agricultural crops is larger than the reported withdrawals in all provinces, except a few provinces
such as those located in water-rich regions and Isfahan.
These
Water 2019, 11,observations
1835 lead to two critical insights. First, based on the comparison of reported and
10 of 15
allowable groundwater withdrawal, it is clearly necessary to reduce agricultural water withdrawal
to mitigate groundwater depletion and safeguard the sustainability of water resources and long-term
the
foodproduction
production. of the examined
Second, agronomic crops
the discrepancy and horticultural
between estimated and crops, along agricultural
reported with the reported
water
groundwater
withdrawals potentially indicates widespread underreporting of agricultural ongroundwater
withdrawal and the amount of groundwater that is available for use based the Ministry
of Energy’s guidelines,
withdrawals designating
in Iran, which up to better
necessitates 75% ofmonitoring
renewable water considered
and regulation of as allowable withdrawal
groundwater resources.
in each province. Two important observations can be made: (i) reported agricultural
This is particularly important in provinces where there is a large difference between the estimatedgroundwater
withdrawal
and reported in groundwater
all the provinces exceeds allowable
withdrawal groundwater
for agronomic withdrawal
crops, including for agricultural
S. Khorasan, and
Khorasan
non-agricultural
Razavi, Fars, Kerman,purposes; and (ii)Hormozgan,
Markazi, estimated groundwater
and Yazd. withdrawal for agricultural
These provinces generally crops
have isa larger
larger
than the reported withdrawals in all provinces, except a few provinces such as
number of wells, including unregistered wells, making groundwater withdrawal monitoring a major those located in
water-rich
challenge thatregions and Isfahan.
contributes to the large difference between estimated and reported water withdrawal.

Estimated GW withdrawal for crops Allowable total GW withdrawal

12 Reported GW withdrawal for crops
10
8
(BCM)

6
4
2
0
Chah. Mah.…
Alborz
Ilam

Kerman
Tehran

N. Khorasan

Lorestan
Zanjan
East Az.
West Az.

Isfahan

Semnan

Qom

Kermanshah
Kurdistan

Golestan

Mazandaran
Ardebil

Khorasan Razavi

Fars

Kohk. & Boier.

Booshehr

Markazi

Hamedan
Khouzestan
S. Khorasan

Sist. & Balouch.

Qazvin

Gilan

Hormozgan

Yazd
Figure 12. Comparison of estimated,
Figure 12. estimated, reported, and
and allowable
allowable agricultural
agricultural water withdrawal
withdrawal at the
the
provincial
provincial level.
level.

These
Iran’s observations lead to two
recent crop acreage datacritical
do notinsights.
reflect the First, basedofon
impact the comparison
recent of reportedweak
droughts, indicating and
allowable groundwater withdrawal, it is clearly necessary to reduce
feedbacks between acreage and renewable water availability, energy costs, and agronomic agricultural water withdrawal to
mitigate groundwater depletion and safeguard the sustainability of water resources
production. Despite significant annual variability in renewable water, which is governed by wet and and long-term food
production. Second,
dry cycles [40], the discrepancy
the land between
under cultivation of estimated
the sevenand reportedcrops
agronomic agricultural waterstable
is relatively withdrawals
(Figure
potentially indicates widespread underreporting of agricultural groundwater
13). This is made possible through increasing groundwater pumping in a conjunctive agricultural withdrawals in Iran,
which necessitates better monitoring and regulation of groundwater
water management scheme, common in arid/semi-arid regions of the world. There was only one resources. This is particularly
important
incident ofinsignificant
provinces crop
where there is a large
production difference
decline between
in the 2008 the estimated
drought because of and reported
a loss groundwater
of crops in rainfed
withdrawal for agronomic crops, including S. Khorasan, Khorasan Razavi,
agricultural land. The total area of farmland shows only a slight overall decline due to the downwardFars, Kerman, Markazi,
Hormozgan, and Yazd.
trend in the acreage ofThese
cereals,provinces
beans, andgenerally have crops
industrial a larger asnumber
opposed of to
wells,
the including
mild upward unregistered
trend of
wells, making groundwater withdrawal monitoring a major challenge
the acreage of cucurbits, vegetables, and forage (Figure 14). Land management is an effective that contributes to the large
difference between estimated and reported water withdrawal.
adaptation strategy to mitigate groundwater depletion in arid and semi-arid areas where profit
Iran’s
margins ofrecent crop acreage
agricultural data do
production are not reflectby
affected theenergy
impactcostsof recent droughts,
or concerns indicating
about weak
groundwater
feedbacks between acreage and renewable water availability, energy costs, and
sustainability and deteriorating groundwater quality [41]. As groundwater tables decline due to the agronomic production.
Despite significant
increasing stress annual
on Iran’svariability in renewable
groundwater water, [42,43],
resources which is the
governed
energy by cost
wet and
of dry cycles
lifting [40],
deeper
the land undershould
groundwater cultivation of theincrease
normally seven agronomic
as a balancingcropsfeedback
is relatively stable (Figure
to prevent 13). This
groundwater is made
depletion.
possible through increasing groundwater pumping in a conjunctive agricultural
Heavily subsidized, cheap agricultural electric energy essentially removes the negative feedback water management
scheme, common agronomic
signal, allowing in arid/semi-arid regions of the
crop production toworld.
continueThere to was only one
the point thatincident of significantofcrop
the sustainability the
production decline in the 2008 drought because of a loss of crops in rainfed
country’s groundwater resources is severely compromised. Figure 13 shows the upward trend of agricultural land. The total
area of farmland shows only a slight overall decline due to the downward trend in the acreage of cereals,
beans, and industrial crops as opposed to the mild upward trend of the acreage of cucurbits, vegetables,
and forage (Figure 14). Land management is an effective adaptation strategy to mitigate groundwater
depletion in arid and semi-arid areas where profit margins of agricultural production are affected by
energy costs or concerns about groundwater sustainability and deteriorating groundwater quality [41].
As groundwater tables decline due to the increasing stress on Iran’s groundwater resources [42,43], the
energy cost of lifting deeper groundwater should normally increase as a balancing feedback to prevent
Water 2019, 11, 1835 11 of 15

groundwater depletion. Heavily subsidized, cheap agricultural electric energy essentially removes
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 11 of 15
the
Waternegative
2019, 11, xfeedback
FOR PEER signal,
REVIEWallowing agronomic crop production to continue to the point that 11 ofthe
15
sustainability of the country’s groundwater resources is severely compromised.
total energy consumption in the agricultural sector, calculated as the sum of diesel and electricFigure 13 shows the
total
upward energy
energy. The consumption
trend of total energy
accelerating inconsumption
the agricultural
electric sector,
in the calculated
agricultural
energy consumption, to aascombination
due sector, the sum ofas
calculated diesel
of the sumandofelectric
switching diesel
diesel
energy.
and The
electric accelerating
energy. The electric
accelerating energy consumption,
electric energy due
consumption,to a combination
due to a of
combination
irrigation pumps to electric pumps and extracting groundwater from larger depths, shows that switching
of diesel
switchingthe
irrigation
diesel pumps
irrigation to
pumpselectric
to pumps
electric and
pumps extracting
and groundwater
extracting from
groundwater larger
from depths,
larger
positive trend of total agricultural energy consumption is governed by the significant increase in shows
depths, that
shows the
that
positive
the trend
positive
electric of
trend
energy total
of agricultural
total
consumption. agriculturalenergy
energyconsumption
consumptionisisgoverned
governedby bythe
the significant
significant increase in in
electric energy
electric energy consumption.
consumption.

Figure 13. National agricultural GEF resource use, cultivated lands, and crop production in Iran.
Figure 13. National
Figure 13. National agricultural
agricultural GEF
GEF resource
resource use,
use, cultivated
cultivated lands,
lands, and
and crop
crop production
productionin
inIran.
Iran.

Figure 14.Acreages
Figure14. Acreagesof
ofagronomic
agronomiccrops
cropsininIran.
Iran.Rice
Riceacreage
acreageisisincluded
includedin
incereals.
cereals.
Figure 14. Acreages of agronomic crops in Iran. Rice acreage is included in cereals.
The dramatic groundwater drawdown in vast areas of Iran is an important sign of “water
The dramatic groundwater drawdown in vast areas of Iran is an important sign of “water
bankruptcy,”
The associated
dramatic with unsustainable
groundwater GEF in management ofpolicies,
Iran is which has critical implications
bankruptcy,” associated with drawdown
unsustainable vast
GEFareas
management an important
policies, which sign of “water
has critical
for long-term
bankruptcy,” water security
associated if
withthe current management
unsustainable GEF paradigm
management persists. The
policies, declining
which groundwater
has critical
implications for long-term water security if the current management paradigm persists. The declining
withdrawal
implications trendlong-term
(Figure 13), despite an increasing number of wells (Figure 7), indicates growing water
groundwaterforwithdrawal water
trendsecurity
(Figureif 13),
the current
despitemanagement
an increasing paradigm
numberpersists.
of wells The(Figure
declining 7),
scarcity
groundwaterand reduced
withdrawalgroundwater
trend and availability.
(Figure Figure
13), groundwater 15 illustrates
despite an increasing varying
number levels of groundwater
of illustrates
wells (Figure 7),
indicates growing water scarcity reduced availability. Figure 15 varying
vulnerability
indicates acrosswater
the Iranian provinces. The groundwater tables are declining throughout the country.
levels of growing
groundwater scarcity
vulnerabilityand reduced
across groundwater availability.
the Iranian provinces. Figure
The 15 illustrates
groundwater varying
tables are
This
levelshasofimportant
groundwater implications for
vulnerability water security
across the through
Iranian increasing
provinces. the
Thecompetition
groundwater over allocating
tables are
declining throughout the country. This has important implications for water security through
limited
declining water between urban and agricultural areas [44–46], especially under heightened hydroclimatic
increasingthroughout
the competition the country.
over allocatingThis has important
limited implications
water between urbanfor and water security
agricultural through
areas [44–
stress and
increasing continuous
the competition development
over allocating[47]. More
limited than one-third
water of the provinces are experiencing an
46], especially under heightened hydroclimatic stress andbetween
continuous urban and agricultural
development areas than
[47]. More [44–
average
46], annual
especially groundwater
under heighteneddecline of 0.6 m, indicating severe to extreme groundwater vulnerability.
one-third of the provinces are hydroclimatic
experiencing an stress and continuous
average development
annual groundwater [47]. More
decline of 0.6 than
m,
The situation
one-third of is particularly
the provinces dire
are inexperiencing
the central and an eastern
average provinces,
annual especially Tehran,
groundwater declineIsfahan,
of Fars,
0.6 m,
indicating severe to extreme groundwater vulnerability. The situation is particularly dire in the
Kerman,
indicating and Khorasan Razavi,groundwater
where the average decline Theis about 1 m per year. The continuation
central andsevere
easterntoprovinces,
extreme especially Tehran, vulnerability.
Isfahan, Fars, situation
Kerman, andis Khorasan
particularly dire in
Razavi, the
where
of this
central trend
and into
eastern the future
provinces, should be
especially a source
Tehran, of major
Isfahan, concern,
Fars, taking
Kerman, into
and account Razavi,
Khorasan projections
where of
the average decline is about 1 m per year. The continuation of this trend into the future should be a
warmer
the and
average drier
decline climate in
is about vast
1 mintoareas of
per accountIran
year. The [48,49], which
continuation are expected
of this trend to reduce
into climate renewable
the future should water
be of
a
source of major concern, taking projections of warmer and drier in vast areas
availability
source and
of major increase
concern, water stress
taking into throughout the 21st century.
Iran [48,49], which are expected to account projectionswater
reduce renewable of warmer and drier
availability andclimate
increasein vast
waterareas of
stress
Iran [48,49], which
throughout the 21st century.are expected to reduce renewable water availability and increase water stress
throughout the 21st century.
 Water 2019, 11, 1835 12 of 15
Water 2019, 11, x FOR PEER REVIEW 12 of 15

Figure 15. Representative (virtual) aquifer and groundwater vulnerability in each province (mild
Figure 15. Representative
vulnerability: (virtual)
GVI = 0–0.21, aquifer vulnerability:
moderate and groundwater vulnerability
0.21–0.83, in each province
severe vulnerability: (mild extreme
0.83–2.98,
vulnerability: GVI = 0–0.21, moderate
vulnerability: GVI = 2.98–10 [39]). vulnerability: 0.21–0.83, severe vulnerability: 0.83–2.98, extreme
vulnerability: GVI = 2.98–10 [39]).
The combination of Iran’s attempt to switch to electric energy as the major energy source for the
The combination
agronomic sector andof Iran’s attempt
the grave to switch
status to electric energy
of groundwater resourcesas theposes
majorcritical
energyresource
source for the
management
agronomic sector and the grave status of groundwater resources poses critical resource management
policy challenges. If the current practice of providing the agronomic sector with heavily subsidized
policy challenges. If the current practice of providing the agronomic sector with heavily subsidized
energy continues, as is expected to be the case, the widening financial gap of larger energy requirements
energy continues, as is expected to be the case, the widening financial gap of larger energy
will not be sensed at the farm level, eliminating incentives for reducing water consumption. Likewise,
requirements will not be sensed at the farm level, eliminating incentives for reducing water
the groundwater tables can be expected to continue to drop under the status quo. In the absence of
consumption. Likewise, the groundwater tables can be expected to continue to drop under the status
groundwater conservation, the significant average annual groundwater table drawdown (increase
quo. In the absence of groundwater conservation, the significant average annual groundwater table
in groundwater
drawdown (increasepumping
in groundwaterhead) means
pumping thathead)
moremeans
energythat is needed
more energy to sustain agronomic
is needed production.
to sustain
This would
agronomic result in
production. larger
This would total subsidies
result in larger being
total paid by the
subsidies beinggovernment
paid by the ingovernment
the short toinmedium
term. This will likely increase the vulnerability of the electric power
the short to medium term. This will likely increase the vulnerability of the electric power industry, industry, which should prepare
to absorb the additional agricultural energy load. In addition,
which should prepare to absorb the additional agricultural energy load. In addition, increased increased electricity production is
likely to
electricity be associated
production is likelywith increased
to be associated greenhouse
with increased gas greenhouse
emissions (as gasobserved
emissionsin (asother parts of the
observed
world,parts
in other e.g., ofCalifornia
the world, [50]).
e.g.,From a long-term
California sustainability
[50]). From a long-term perspective, however,
sustainability it is critical to
perspective,
recognize
however, it is the extensive
critical and widespread
to recognize the extensive groundwater
and widespread table decline
groundwater as a serious warning
table decline as asignal to
serious warningadaptive
implement signal to implement
agricultural adaptive agricultural water
water management management
measures measures
to mitigate, to mitigate,
or better yet, prevent
or better
futureyet, prevent futurerepercussions
socioeconomic socioeconomic repercussions
(e.g., job losses) (e.g.,associated
job losses) associated with exhausting
with exhausting high-quality or
high-quality or marginal-quality
marginal-quality groundwater. groundwater.
Monitoring
Monitoring GEFGEF linkages and trends
linkages offersoffers
and trends a framework
a frameworkfor thefor objective assessment
the objective of waterof water
assessment
sustainability
sustainability in thein broader
the broader context of theofcountry’s
context development
the country’s developmenttrajectory. This ex-post
trajectory. analysisanalysis
This ex-post of of
the the
agronomic sector from a GEF nexus perspective documents groundwater
agronomic sector from a GEF nexus perspective documents groundwater resource sustainability resource sustainability
challenges
challenges withwithlooming
loomingconsequences
consequences for Iran’seconomic
for Iran’s economicand and food food production
production stability.
stability. Agricultural
Agricultural crops play a major role in feeding the population of Iran, like in other developing
crops play a major role in feeding the population of Iran, like in other developing countries, and
countries, and about 80% of cultivated area and water use can be attributed to the agronomic sector.
about 80% of cultivated area and water use can be attributed to the agronomic sector. As such, Iran is
As such, Iran is faced with difficult agricultural policy choices affecting its water and food security.
faced with difficult agricultural policy choices affecting its water and food security. Implementation
Implementation of command-and-control policies (e.g., fallowing agricultural lands in vulnerable
of command-and-control policies (e.g., fallowing agricultural lands in vulnerable areas) in hopes of
areas) in hopes of curbing the accelerating groundwater depletion will be difficult due to the
curbing the ramifications
socioeconomic accelerating groundwater
of unemployment depletion will be
in farming difficult dueAttoathe
communities. socioeconomic
minimum, ramifications
such policies
will require effective government compensation programs in the face of a generally fragile nationaleffective
of unemployment in farming communities. At a minimum, such policies will require
government
economic compensation
condition. It is essential programs in the face
to implement of a generally
programmatic fragile
reforms thatnational
enable economic
the farming condition.
communities to increase the efficiency of agricultural water and energy use to mitigate groundwaterincrease
It is essential to implement programmatic reforms that enable the farming communities to
the
table efficiency
decline and/or ofreestablish
agricultural the water
aquiferandwaterenergy
balance usein to mitigate plains.
agricultural groundwater table require
Such reforms decline and/or
reestablish
facilitating the aquifer water
the modernization of thebalance in agricultural
agricultural sector through plains. Such reforms
technology transferrequire facilitating the
and extension
modernization
programs, along with of the agricultural
enforcing sector through
supplementary technology
policies transfertoand
and regulations extension
improve programs, along
groundwater
with enforcing
monitoring supplementary
and management. Failingpolicies
to do so and regulations
will aggravate theto improveimpacts
pernicious groundwater monitoring and
on the country’s
groundwater
management. resources,
Failing possibly
to do so causing the loss ofthe
will aggravate numerous
pernicious agricultural
impactsjobs, ecosystem
on the country’s damage,
groundwater
land subsidence,
resources, sinkholes,
possibly causingand the food
loss ofsecurity
numerous issues in the years
agricultural to come due
jobs, ecosystem damage,to excessive
land subsidence,
sinkholes, and food security issues in the years to come due to excessive groundwater stress and
Water 2019, 11, 1835 13 of 15

depletion in vulnerable provinces. To this end, the provincial scale of the present analysis allows us to
locate the most vulnerable areas and prioritize mitigation programs. The GEF nexus analysis approach
is transferrable to other regions experiencing groundwater table decline and allows for identifying
weak links in natural resource management policies and taking corrective action in a timely fashion.

4. Conclusions
In this paper, we examined the groundwater-energy-food (GEF) nexus to shed light on the
root causes of Iran’s most pressing and prevalent water security threat, i.e., extensive groundwater
table decline. The ex-post analysis of agronomic crops was based on national and provincial
scale datasets of land use, crop production, and electric energy consumption along with firsthand
estimates of groundwater withdrawal in the agronomic sector. The GEF analysis demonstrates a
great need for increasing agronomic productivity with respect to water and energy use. Stable and/or
growing agronomic crop cultivation and production in Iran has been made possible at the expense
of depleting groundwater resources, which until recently were managed as an unlimited resource
exploited with cheap energy. Currently, the reported agricultural groundwater withdrawals in all
Iranian provinces exceed the allowable groundwater withdrawal for agricultural and non-agricultural
purposes combined, although estimated crop water demands are generally much larger than reported
withdrawals. The discrepancy between estimated and reported agricultural water withdrawals
indicates potential widespread underreporting of agricultural groundwater withdrawals, which
necessitates better monitoring and regulation of groundwater. The dramatic groundwater drawdown
in vast areas of Iran is an important sign of water bankruptcy associated with unsustainable GEF
management policies, which has critical implications for long-term water and food security if the
current management paradigm persists. It is essential to implement programmatic reforms that
empower farming communities to increase the efficiency of agricultural water and energy use with
the ultimate goal of mitigating the groundwater table decline and/or reestablishing the aquifer water
balance in agricultural plains. Such reforms require facilitating the modernization of the agricultural
sector through technology transfer and extension programs, along with enforcing supplementary
policies and regulations to improve groundwater monitoring and management. Failing to do so will
aggravate the pernicious impacts on the country’s groundwater resources, possibly leading to the loss
of numerous agricultural jobs in the years to come due to excessive groundwater stress and depletion
in vulnerable provinces.

Author Contributions: All authors collaborated in the research presented in this publication by making the
following contributions: research conceptualization, K.M., A.M. (Atena Mirzaei), A.M. (Ali Mirchi), and B.S.;
methodology, K.M., A.M. (Atena Mirzaei), and A.M. (Ali Mirchi); formal analysis, A.M. (Atena Mirzaei); data
curation, A.M. (Atena Mirzaei); writing—original draft preparation, A.M. (Atena Mirzaei) and A.M. (Ali Mirchi);
writing—review and editing, A.M. (Ali Mirchi), K.M., and B.S.; supervision, B.S., K.M., and A.M. (Ali Mirchi).
Funding: This research received no external funding.
Acknowledgments: We would like to thank Alireza Nouri, Sina Nabai, Hamid Rahmani, Mokhtar Kiani,
Ali Safarzadeh and Gholam Ali Shahhoseini for their extensive, continuous support in providing the required
data for this paper. Constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers are gratefully acknowledged.
Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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