VIETNAM NATIONAL UNIVERSITY, HANOI

INTERNATIONAL SCHOOL

FINAL ASSIGNMENT
Semester: I, 2023-2024

Phạm Ngọc Phương Thủy 20070344

Đinh Hương Trà 20070353
Nguyễn Thị Hiền 20070172
Dương Thị Phương Thanh 20070321
Nguyễn Thanh Tâm 22070604
Trần Hoàng Phương Anh 21070616

Lecturer: Mr. Đồng Văn Chung

Course Name: International Economics
Course ID: INS2005
Class: INS2005. 05

Hanoi, Nov 2023

1
 EXAMINATION
Code 2: Group Project
Lecturer’s Signature & full name
Program: VNU
Course Code: INS2005
Course Title: International Economics
Level: Undergraduate
Time allowed: 7 days
Due date: Date:

Department’s Signature & full name

Date: ………………………………

Part 1. Choose one nation. Find the 2022 data for that country’s balance of payments. Please
provide your conclusion of the current account, including the export and import, comparative
advantage and disadvantage, and understand its surplus or deficit.

Part 2. Recently, Vietnam has experienced changes in its export structure. Previously,
Vietnam exported more low-added value things like natural resources (e.g. crude oil,
minerals,...) as raw materials. Currently, the country’s crucial export products are phones,
electronic goods/computers, and machinery. Based on the comparative advantage, gravity
model, and trade integration, please explain why Vietnam has the tendency to export fewer
natural resources, including crude oil.

2
TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS.............................................................................................................3
LIST OF TABLES......................................................................................................................4
LIST OF FIGURE......................................................................................................................4
CONTRIBUTION......................................................................................................................5
Analyze the country’s context, and country’s natural resources, and emphasize the export
structure before and after the shift.........................................................................................5
Analyze the transformation of the economy to speed up trade liberalization, industrialization, and
modernization.....................................................................................................................5
The 2022 data for Vietnam’s balance of payments......................................................................5
The export and import..........................................................................................................5
Analyze the current Industrial Competitiveness as a strength of the economy............................5
Comparative advantage and disadvantage..............................................................................5
Its surplus or deficit.............................................................................................................5
The strategy and policy implication to grow the economy in the long term................................6
PART 1: VIETNAM’S BALANCE OF PAYMENT ANALYSIS...................................................7
I. The 2022 data for Vietnam’s balance of payments..............................................................7
1. Introduction to Vietnam’s Economy...............................................................................7
2. Vietnam’s balance of payment in 2022...........................................................................7
II. Conclusion of current account...........................................................................................8
1. The export and import...................................................................................................8
2. Comparative advantage and disadvantage.......................................................................9
3. Its surplus or deficit......................................................................................................9
PART 2: CHANGE IN THE VIETNAMESE EXPORT STRUCTURE.........................................10
I. Executive summary........................................................................................................10
II. Introduction...................................................................................................................10
III. Vietnamese export structure........................................................................................10
1. Analyze the country’s context, and country’s natural resources, and emphasize the export
structure before and after the shift.......................................................................................10
2. Analyze the transformation of the economy to speed up trade liberalization,
industrialization, and modernization....................................................................................12
3. Analyze the current Industrial Competitiveness as a strength of the economy...................15
4. The strategy and policy implication to grow the economy in the long term......................16
IV. Conclusion......................................................................................................................17

3
References...............................................................................................................................19

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Vietnam’s balance of payment in 2022 - Source: State Bank of Vietnam.............................7

LIST OF FIGURE
Figure 1: Export and import of goods in 2022 - Source: General Department of Customs..................8
Figure 2: Export and import of services in 2022 - Source: General Department of Customs...............9
Figure 3: Vietnam’s exports in the 1990s - Source: United Nations Development Program..............11
Figure 4: Export structure by product group in Vietnam - Source: International Trade Centre
(UNCTAD/WTO), 1998 (http//: intracen.org)..............................................................................11
Figure 5: Indicators on export performance by some Asian countries (1994-1998) - Source:
International Trade Center (WTO/UNCTAD), 1998 (http//: intracen.org)......................................12
Figure 6: the structure of Vietnam's export groups.......................................................................14

4
CONTRIBUTION
Member Student ID Content Contribution
Phạm Ngọc Phương Thủy 20070344 Analyze the 100%
country’s context,
and country’s
natural resources,
and emphasize the
export structure
before and after the
shift

Đinh Hương Trà 20070353 100%

Analyze the
transformation of the
economy to speed up
trade liberalization,
industrialization, and
modernization

Nguyễn Thị Hiền 20070172 100%

The 2022 data for
Vietnam’s balance
of payments
The export and
import

Dương Thị Phương Thanh 20070321 100%

Analyze the current
Industrial
Competitiveness as a
strength of the
economy

Nguyễn Thanh Tâm 22070604 100%

Comparative
advantage and
disadvantage
Its surplus or deficit

Trần Hoàng Phương Anh 21070616 100%

The strategy and
policy implication to
grow the economy in

5
Member Student ID Content Contribution
the long term.

6
PART 1: VIETNAM’S BALANCE OF PAYMENT ANALYSIS
I. The 2022 data for Vietnam’s balance of payments
1. Introduction to Vietnam’s Economy
Vietnam, a Southeast Asian nation, has undergone a remarkable economic transformation
over the past few decades, transitioning from a centrally planned economy to a dynamic
market-oriented one. Today, Vietnam stands as a lower-middle-income country with a
steadily growing economy and a rapidly increasing standard of living.
In 2022, Vietnam's economy experienced a remarkable rebound, achieving an impressive
8.02% GDP growth rate. This growth surpassed pre-pandemic levels and exceeded
expectations, reflecting the country's adaptability and resilience in the face of global
challenges.
Vietnam's export sector played a pivotal role in the economic recovery. Exports surged by
22% year-on-year, reaching a record high of $332.3 billion.

2. Vietnam’s balance of payment in 2022

Table 1: Vietnam’s balance of payment in 2022 - Source: State Bank of Vietnam

7
 II. Conclusion of current account
1. The export and import
Import-export activities in 2022 take place in a specific context, with unpredictable political
and economic fluctuations and most of them have negative impacts on trade activities. For
the whole year 2022, Vietnam's total import-export turnover reached 730.2 billion USD, an
increase of 9.1% (equivalent to an increase of 61.2 billion USD) compared to 2021. Of
which, the export turnover of goods was 371.3 billion USD, an increase of 10.5%, equivalent
to an increase of 35.14 billion USD compared to the previous year; Import turnover of goods
was 358.9 billion USD, an increase of 7.8%, equivalent to an increase of 26.06 billion USD.

Figure 1: Export and import of goods in 2022 - Source: General Department of Customs

Also in 2022, Vietnam's total service import and export value reached 38.4 billion USD, an
increase of 37.3% (equivalent to an increase of 14.3 billion USD) compared to 2021. Service
export turnover is estimated to reach 12.9 billion USD, an increase of 145.2% compared to
2021 (quarter 4/2022 is estimated to reach 4.6 billion USD, an increase of 204.2%). Service
import turnover in 2022 is estimated to reach 25.5 billion USD, up 23.6% over the previous
year (quarter 4/2022 is estimated at 6.1 billion USD, up 10.7%).

8
 Figure 2: Export and import of services in 2022 - Source: General Department of Customs

2. Comparative advantage and disadvantage

As for the comparative advantages of Vietnam's trade exchange in products, the country has a
number of advantages, including its low labor costs, favorable geographical location, and a
large and growing domestic market. Vietnam is also a member of several free trade
agreements, which have helped to boost its exports and attract foreign investment. However,
Vietnam's economy is heavily dependent on exports, particularly to the United States and
China, which makes it vulnerable to changes in global demand and trade policies. In addition,
the country faces challenges related to infrastructure, corruption, and a lack of skilled labor,
which could limit its ability to compete in certain industries.

3. Its surplus or deficit

According to CEIC Data, Vietnam’s current account balance recorded a surplus of 7.9 USD
bn in June 2023, compared with a surplus of 4.3 USD bn in the previous quarter. The data is
updated quarterly and is available from March 1996 to June 2023, with an average value of -
91.5 USD mn. The data reached an all-time high of 8.7 USD bn in September 2020 and a
record low of -6.2 USD bn in June 2021. The State Bank of Vietnam provides a Current
Account Balance in USD. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) increased by 4.5 USD bn in June
2023. Vietnam Direct Investment Abroad expanded by 80.0 USD mn in June 2023. Its
Foreign Portfolio Investment fell by 400.0 USD mn in June 2023

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PART 2: CHANGE IN THE VIETNAMESE EXPORT STRUCTURE

I. Executive summary

This analysis scrutinizes the Vietnamese export structure by examining the country's context
and natural resources. It highlights the nuances of the export framework both before and after
a significant shift. Additionally, the study explores how the economy has undergone
transformational changes to expedite trade liberalization, industrialization, and
modernization. By addressing these key components, the summary encapsulates a
comprehensive understanding of the evolution of Vietnam's export dynamics, shedding light
on the interplay between contextual factors, natural resources, and deliberate economic
transformations. Furthermore, answer the main question posed by the topic.

II. Introduction

Over the past few years, Vietnam has undergone a significant transformation in its export
structure, shifting away from a heavy reliance on low-value natural resource exports towards
a focus on higher-value products such as phones, electronic goods/computers, and machinery.
This shift has had a profound impact on the country's economy and trade dynamics. In this
discussion, we will explore the reasons behind Vietnam's tendency to export fewer natural
resources, particularly crude oil. By understanding these factors, we can gain insights into the
drivers of Vietnam's changing export landscape and the strategic decisions guiding its
economic development.

III. Vietnamese export structure

1. Analyze the country’s context, and country’s natural resources, and
emphasize the export structure before and after the shift
In Southeast Asia, Vietnam's economy is growing. Since the Vietnamese government began
implementing its economic rehabilitation agenda in the late 1980s, it has experienced
extraordinary development during the last ten years. Vietnam has been making efforts to
integrate with the global economy and regional community. Vietnam possesses a plethora of
natural resources that might be used to export minerals and agricultural products.

Prior to the 1986 rehabilitation policy, the Vietnamese economy was closed. Barter trade or
help was the norm in foreign trade activities, mostly with the Soviet Union and other CMEA
(Council for Mutual Economic Help) member nations, as opposed to the commercial
exchange of products. Foreign commerce has increased considerably since the economy was
opened up as a result of reduced state intervention, promotion of private businesses and
foreign investment, and trade and price liberalization. Over the past ten years, this has
become one of the main drivers of the nation's growth. Vietnam's two-way commerce today

10
accounts for about 80% of GDP, demonstrating the country's significant integration into the
global economy.

Figure 3: Vietnam’s exports in the 1990s - Source: United Nations Development Program
When we break down Vietnam's export structure by product group, we can observe that fresh
or processed food, minerals, leather goods, and apparel account for a large portion of the
country's total exports. Products that need a lot of effort to manufacture, such as apparel and
leather goods, have generally developed quite quickly (20 percent and 46 percent,
respectively). Food and minerals, for example, have developed more slowly than other
primary items (7 percent for fresh food, 12 percent for processed food, and 6 percent for
minerals). It's also important to note that although manufacturing with a lot of technology,
such as electronics products, accounts for a small portion of the total, it has been rising
rapidly—roughly 300 percent.

Figure 4: Export structure by product group in Vietnam - Source: International Trade Centre
(UNCTAD/WTO), 1998 (http//: intracen.org)

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It is possible to observe Vietnam's export structure overall in terms of factor intensification.
Between 1994 and 1998, the growth rate of manufactured exports was 31% for labor-
intensive manufacturing and 78% for technology-intensive manufacturing, compared with a
7% growth rate for primary exports.

Figure 5: Indicators on export performance by some Asian countries (1994-1998) - Source:

International Trade Center (WTO/UNCTAD), 1998 (http//: intracen.org)
Like other more developed economies in the region, Vietnam's export structure is actually
evolving in the same direction. But it's important to remember that Vietnam is significantly
less developed than these nations. Its export structure is therefore comparable to other nations
during the early stages of export-oriented development. Ninety percent of Vietnam's exports
are primary and labor-intensive, compared to only fifty-four percent in China, forty-nine
percent in Thailand, twenty-seven percent in Malaysia, and nine percent in Singapore. First-
tier NIEs exhibit a broad structure indicating that technology- and human capital-intensive
manufacturing are Singapore's top export categories.

2. Analyze the transformation of the economy to speed up trade

liberalization, industrialization, and modernization

The Vietnamese government has implemented various trade policy reforms to simplify
procedures, reduce bureaucratic hurdles, and create a more business-friendly environment.
These reforms aim to attract foreign investment and facilitate smoother international trade.

Economic Reforms

The Đổi Mới reforms which were started in the latter part of the 20th century, have had a
significant role in changing the Vietnamese economy. These changes transformed the nation
from a centrally planned to a socialist-oriented market economy by opening the market and
promoting private sector involvement. Moreover, the government has implemented measures
to improve the overall business environment, including simplifying administrative
procedures, reducing red tape, and enhancing the ease of conducting business.

12
Certainly, the transformation of the Vietnamese economy to accelerate trade liberalization,
industrialization, and modernization has been a multifaceted and dynamic process. The
following are the key factors that have contributed to this transformation:

Trade liberalization

International trade agreements: Vietnam has actively pursued and entered into numerous
international trade agreements. Notable agreements include the Comprehensive and
Progressive Agreement for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the EU-Vietnam Free
Trade Agreement (EVFTA), and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
(RCEP). Vietnam has committed to cutting off many tariff lines under the CPTPP. Regarding
export taxes, Vietnam pledges to remove most goods that are now liable to them according to
a roadmap of 5-15 years following the Agreement's implementation.

WTO Accession

The accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 of Vietnam has also marked
a significant step in opening the economy. With this action, Vietnam pledged to promote
competition, further liberalizing its trading policy and integrating into the world economy.
This move facilitated the nation to take a big step forward on the path of international
integration. Vietnam's economy is described as a ship headed into the "big sea".

The WTO and FTAs have been opening many opportunities for Vietnam to increase trade,
attract foreign investment, and assist enterprises in becoming more fully integrated into the
value chain and global production network.

Industrialization

The Vietnamese government has formulated and implemented industrial policies that give
priority to the growth of significant sectors. Electronics, IT, and manufacturing industries are
among the fields that these regulations provide incentives for. These essential sectors have
expanded rapidly, significantly contributing to output, investment, and exports.

Besides, Vietnam has actively sought foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly in the
manufacturing and industrial sectors. The industrial base has become more competitive
generally, and technological upgrades and process improvements have been made possible
thanks in substantial part to FDI. In addition, the establishment of EPZs and IZs has provided
a conducive environment for industrial growth. These zones offer infrastructure, tax
incentives, and other advantages to attract both domestic and foreign investors.

The following is the structure of Vietnam's export groups

13
 Figure 6: the structure of Vietnam's export groups

Modernization

Vietnam's government has funded the Industrial Innovation process, which prioritizes
innovation and the application of new technologies to modernize its industry. This process
entails making investments in R&D, automating operations, and improving production
techniques. Which aids in increasing efficiency, improving product quality, and innovating
the manufacturing process. In addition to the transformation, education and skill development
have been emphasized to facilitate modernization. The government aims to generate a
workforce capable of handling advanced technologies and cultivating innovation across
several sectors.

Besides, the Vietnam government also aids in infrastructure development. As efficient

infrastructure reduces logistics costs and enhances competitiveness, the government has
stepped up investments in transportation infrastructure, such as roads, ports, and airports,
which have been crucial for facilitating the movement of commodities within the country and
for export. The government further encourages subsidizing energy infrastructure. To satisfy
the increasing demands of its industrial sector, Vietnam has made investments to increase its
energy capacity using both conventional and renewable sources.

In addition to favorable changes, Vietnam's export structure has confronted several

difficulties including climate change. environmental protection and competitiveness increase.

14
Hence, enterprises need to focus on innovation and personnel training. Also, manage a
balance between the company's development and environmental preservation to guarantee
sustainability.

3. Analyze the current Industrial Competitiveness as a strength of the

economy
Vietnam has been experiencing significant economic growth and industrial development over
the past few decades. The country has transformed from a primarily agrarian economy to one
with a strong industrial base, particularly in manufacturing and exports.

Diverse Export Structure

Vietnam has a diverse export structure, with key sectors including textiles and garments,
electronics, footwear, and agricultural products. Vietnam is a major exporter of textiles and
garments with over 6000 textiles and garments manufacturing companies, employing
upwards of 2.5 million workers. In 2022, Vietnam's textile and garment exports will reach
37.5 billion USD. In 2022, exports of electronics, computers, and components will rank
second among eight product groups with a turnover of over 10 billion USD in Vietnam.
Vietnam is currently, the world’s second-largest coffee exporter, behind only Brazil. The
industry plays an important role in Vietnam’s agriculture economy and is an export-oriented
industry with more than 90 percent of the production volume exported. According to the
2022 summary report of the Vietnam Leather, leather and shoe production in 2022 increased
by 15.6% compared to 2021.

Labor Market
Vietnam has a relatively large and competitive labor force, which has been one of its
strengths in attracting manufacturing activities. However, maintaining competitiveness in this
aspect requires ongoing investments in education and skill development. Vietnam’s labor
market experienced positive growth in Q1 2023, an increase in the labor force and
employment rates, along with a decrease in unemployment and underemployment rates.
Wages also showed improvement. Vietnam’s labor force increased by 88,700 people to reach
a total of 52.2 million available workers – one million more people available to work than a
year earlier.

Global Supply Chain Integration

Vietnam sees many opportunities to become an important link in the global supply chain,
despite economic difficulties in the domestic and international markets. Countries’ shifting of
production and diversifying supply chains have helped Vietnam become a favorite
destination for foreign investors. Vietnam's strong integration has provided it with the chance
to embed Vietnamese products deep within the global value chain, access foreign
technologies at a cheap cost, and tap into the vast reservoirs of cross-border data. These
opportunities beckon, waiting to be harnessed.

Trade Agreements

15
Vietnam has been proactive in negotiating and entering into various trade agreements. In
2022, Vietnam's export turnover to CPTPP countries will reach 53.6 billion USD. USD, up
17.3% compared to 2021. Trade surplus from CPTPP countries in 2022 reaches 2.63 billion
USD while in 2021 Vietnam has a deficit of about 74.5 million USD in trade exchange with
CP TPP countries. With the EVFTA Agreement, in 2022, the exchange turnover between
Vietnam and EU countries will reach 62.24 billion USD, an increase of 9.2% compared to
2021. Vietnam's export turnover to EU countries will reach 46 billion USD., an increase of
16.7% compared to 2021. I export turnover to the EU according to form C/ O according to
EVFTA reached 12.1 billion USD, an increase of 49.4% compared to 2021. Vietnam's trade
surplus compared to EU countries in 2022 reached 31.4 billion USD, an increase of 35.1%
compared to 2021.

Innovation and Technology Adoption

Foreign companies investing in Vietnam often bring advanced technologies and know-how,
contributing to technology transfer and upgrading the skills of the local workforce. The
Vietnamese government has launched initiatives to promote innovation and technology, the
National Innovation Center program, and efforts to build a supportive ecosystem for startups
and technology-driven enterprises. Vietnam has been working on increasing R&D spending,
and research institutions are collaborating with industries to drive innovation. Digital
transformation is a key component of Vietnam's efforts to modernize its industries.

Political stability is a critical factor for industrial competitiveness. A stable political

environment fosters investor confidence and encourages long-term investments. Vietnam is a
unitary single-party state, and its political and security environment is largely stable. The
government has worked to improve business policies, labor laws, and its ranking as a leading
ASEAN region destination for foreign direct investment.

Infrastructure
As of 2022, Vietnam’s infrastructure spending stands at an impressive 6% of its GDP. This
represents a significant increase from the 2.6% of GDP that was spent on infrastructure back
in 2016. Based on the World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Report 2019,
Vietnam’s overall quality of infrastructure ranks 77th out of 141 countries, with 66th in
transport infrastructure and 87th in utility infrastructure. To achieve this progress, Vietnam
has invested heavily in transportation, especially in roads, airports, and seaports. The
country’s public and private investment in infrastructure has reached 5.7% of GDP in recent
years, the highest in Southeast Asia and the second highest in Asia after China (6.8% of
GDP).

4. The strategy and policy implication to grow the economy in the long term
Investing in R&D and innovation
To maintain competitiveness and enhance the added value of exported products, Vietnam
should prioritize investment in research and development (R&D), including attracting foreign
R&D investment. By promoting technological advancement and increasing the innovation

16
content, the country can move up the value chain and develop Vietnamese brands for export
goods. Additionally, companies should concentrate on enhancing the ability to research,
design, and develop high-tech products to ensure that export products meet advanced
technical requirements in the international market. It is essential to coordinate the
implementation of national programs that support businesses in improving productivity and
product quality, thereby facilitating international integration.

Developing high-quality human resources

Education and skills development training must be prioritized to meet the need for skilled
labor in phone, electronics, computer, and machinery manufacturing. Vietnam should focus
on improving the quality of its education system, promoting vocational training programs,
and nurturing a culture of lifelong learning. It is necessary to expand awareness among
workers about the importance of the global value chain in the computer products and
electronic components industry; provide competitive salaries, benefits, promotion
opportunities, and a reliable working environment to motivate employees to strive for
personal development, create conditions to attract and retain talent.

Promoting exports and expanding market opportunities

To advance the market, expand brand recognition, and generate interest from international
customers, businesses need to have effective marketing and advertising strategies. By
analyzing consumer demand and trends, assessing competitiveness, and reviewing market
regulations and policies, businesses might search for new markets and identify potential
markets. In addition, the state and businesses can focus on participating in international
exhibitions and building networks with international partners to expand markets and enhance
customer access.

Sustainable Development
As Vietnam continues to develop its economy, it is crucial to prioritize sustainable
development activities. These activities include promoting environmentally friendly
production processes, investing in renewable energy sources, and adopting responsible
resource management policies. By embracing sustainable development, Vietnam can reduce
environmental risks, enhance its global reputation, and ensure long-term economic resilience.

Strengthen international cooperation

The state can formulate policies to attract foreign investment through preferential tax
policies, capital regulations and investment licensing mechanisms. Expanding and deepening
international collaboration proactively to increase the attraction of external resources for
research, application, transfer, and development of modern technologies. Moreover, the
government and businesses might seek international partners and establish technical
cooperation relationships to exchange technology, methods, and expertise. Effective
participation in the global innovation network and the global innovation startup network also
helps improve competitiveness and positioning in the global supply chain.

17
IV. Conclusion

Over the years, Vietnam has invested in education and skills development, nurturing a
workforce capable of handling more sophisticated tasks. This has enabled the country to
move up the value chain from raw material extraction to higher-skilled manufacturing. In
addition, Vietnam has a pivotal advantage in its abundant and relatively low-cost labor force.
Therefore, it is expressly well-suited for labor-intensive industries such as electronics and
machinery manufacturing.

In summary, Vietnam's economic development is still in its early phases. Changes in export
structure have revealed initial similarities to other nations in the region, and if Vietnam keeps
up its economic reform, we may expect the overall trend to continue. For the foreseeable
future, at least, Vietnam will export a growing amount of manufactured goods in addition to a
substantial amount of primary goods due to its abundance of natural resources.

18
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