Asia Pacific Insight

2024 5 16 9
3D : +

Stephen CFA

Stephen.Cheung@morganstanley.com 3963 - 0385 + 852

Patrick.Jiang@morganstanley.com 3963 - 2567 + 852

2021 2023 Chloe.Liu1@morganstanley.com 2848 - 5497 + 852

Cara.Zhu@morganstanley.com 2848 - 7117 + 852

3D
/

: 1998

21
40%

2024-26
800 ( 2023 880 2016-21 1300 - 1400 )

2031-40 2040 ~75%(2023

40%)

: GDP -
- 20% 15% ( 30%)

+= FINRA
FINRA
 Asia Pacific Insight

1:2000-2040e

:CEIC ;e = :* 2021-23

2: 3: 45%

: CREIS

2
 Asia Pacific Insight

4: 5:
<20%

6: ~6.5 Exhibit 7: ~11

: :

Morgan Stanley Research 3

 Asia Pacific Insight

8:

30% > 50% >

:2020 CEIC NBS

Exhibit 9:

: NBS CEIC

4
 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 10: 11: GDP 15%

:NBS CEIC
:CEIC NBS CREIS

Morgan Stanley Research 5

 Asia Pacific Insight

1998 2000-21
12% 16
2021. 2020 Covid
~40%
2022-23 21 30%

2022
2023 2

25
3D

GDP

25 ( )

( > 60% 10% + ),

80 - 90%( 50 - 65%) ~ 20%

(2023
~80% )

50% > 2023

~40%( )

6
 Asia Pacific Insight

( 2
),
( 2024 3 ), ,
, 30 25% 50%

1.

2.
3.

4. (<10
)

5.

(
2024 4 30
)
( )

:(1) ;(2) 5

460 ( 2023
30% >) 50% >

80 >5%
~9% 2024-26
800 ( 2023 880 2022 960 )
( 81)

90

Morgan Stanley Research 7

 Asia Pacific Insight

2024-30 1400 - 1500 (2016-21 1700 - 1800 )

800 600 - 700

45% (2023 40% 2022

30% 2021 22%)
46-47%
43-44%

2031 ~ 700 2040 > 1100 ( 2.

4%) ~ 800 ~ 400
2031-40 3.1 2040
74% 75-85%

GDP
20%+ 15%
( > 30%)

:1)
;2)
; 3)

8
 Asia Pacific Insight

1998
2000-21 12%
CAGR 2021 16 2023
216

, ,
( ), ,
2020 ,60% ( 2010 45%),
13% ( 3% 10% ), 26%
( 21%) 20
60-75%

, ( % non-rental )
2020 , 79%
, (48%) (62%) (65%)
(66%)
,
AlphaWise (
1-4 2000 ) 90%
20%

12:2000-21 CAGR 12% 13: >20% CAGR 2022

:NBS CEIC
Source: NBS, CEIC, Morgan Stanley Research

Morgan Stanley Research 9

 Asia Pacific Insight

14: 40- 15:2020

50% >60%

:NBS CEIC :NBS CEIC

16: AlphaWise Exhibit 17:

90%

: Statista

:AlphaWise

2000-21
7.8%
, , (
)

,2020
, 2021 ,
2020 ,

10
 Asia Pacific Insight

:(1) 2H21
(2) 2023

18: 19: 2021

:NBS CEIC

: CEIC

20:
2020

Exhibit 21: 2021

(1)

Morgan Stanley Research 11

 Asia Pacific Insight

CREIS 300 2021 4

2021 22% 2H21
300 2022
28% 2023 19% 54% 2020
14 , 2023 647 mn , 2010 ,
-50%, -58%,low-tier -52%

CRIC 2021
5 70 2020
2021 14.2%
, ,
, 2022 41%,2023 -9.2%
2020 - 23 54%, -17% , -
55%,-62% low-tier

22:CREIS 300 23:

3 m24
:CREIS :CREIS

12
 Asia Pacific Insight

24:CRIC 70 54% Exhibit 25: 17%

2020 - 23

:CRIC

:CRIC 27: 62%

26: 55%

:CRIC :CRIC

(2)

2022
2023

23 40
2 4 50%
2 3 q mm ,9

Morgan Stanley Research 13

 Asia Pacific Insight

10 mid-3Q

2023 , ~ 30% ( 22%

,27% , 40% low-tier) mid-
4Q23 , 3 4
2 ( )
,

28: Exhibit 29:

2023

30: 31: 2023 11

, , ~
80%

14
 Asia Pacific Insight

( + )2023 ,2022
75%
, ,

:21
( ) 2022
,
3Q22

: ,
,
2023 6.
4% 55 8.2%
-0.9% 70

3Q22
2023
7.5% 1480 44% 600
8.2% 880 2023
40%, 2022 30% 20% ,
2022 - 23 ~ 40%

Exhibit 32: 2023 80% 33:

: CREIS : NBS

Morgan Stanley Research 15

 Asia Pacific Insight

34: 2022 ( ) Exhibit 35: y-y

Exhibit 36: 2023 37: 5.7

42% > 55%

:CREIS :CREIS

16
 Asia Pacific Insight

(
)

( ) 30
30 ( ,19 2 7
3)> 25% 2020 , ~ 30% 2021 ~
50%

2024 3
( 30% )
5

1.

2. ( )

3.

4.

5.

Morgan Stanley Research 17

 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 38: 30 ~30%

~50%

:2020 CREIS

1:

<70 70-90 90-

120 120-160 >160 ,
90 ,120 - 160
, 160

90
45%( 21% 70 ) 25%
19% 6% ,< 70 42%
, 19%, 16%
2006 70-90 ( 70%
<90 )

( >120sqm)
2019 13% 2023 19% 90-120
2019 34% 2023 46%
2023
20% 25% 2019 14% 19%

18
 Asia Pacific Insight

, ,
( ,3/4-bedroom
2
)

Exhibit 39: 45% 40: <70

:
:

41: 42:

<5 5-10 10-20 20-30 >30

1998 ( 25 ) 2000
20

Morgan Stanley Research 19

 Asia Pacific Insight

20 (
) 10 ( )

>80% 20 ( <5 10% 5-10

32% 10-20 41%) 20-30 >30 12% 5% ,
, 50% (
20 - 30 31%, 19% > 30 ), 14%
( 1%) ,55% 51%
20

47% 48%
10% 13%
2010 - 20, ( 2016 - 20)
4

>20 >30 ~40%

>10%
( 2019 38% 2023 57%)
,

Exhibit 43: 44:

<20%

: :

20
 Asia Pacific Insight

45: Exhibit 46:

3:

56% 44%
55% 59%
>70%
~60% ~40%

2019-23
27% ( GFA ) 73%
(17%) 2019-21

Morgan Stanley Research 21

 Asia Pacific Insight

47: 48:

:
:

49:2019-23
50: 27% GFA
23%

:CREIS

4:

( )

<2 2-5 5-10 10-20 >20

, , 3
2016 - 22, 10 , <5

, ~ 6.5 , 17% 2-5

<2 ,33%

22
 Asia Pacific Insight

5-10 31% 10-20 16% >20 2%

( 9.1 vs. 6.3 5.3 ) ,52% 62%
, 18% 24%
> 60%
( 5
<3 )

51: ~ 6.5 Exhibit 52: 9.1

:
54: 5.3
Exhibit 53: 6.
3

: :

5:

We think the length of the transaction cycle (defined as the time from listing to sale) is a

Morgan Stanley Research 23

 Asia Pacific Insight

<30 30-90 90-180 180-

360 >360

, , 2019 3.5 (105 )

2023 5.3 (160 ),
, 3.5 5.5 , 2.9 5.
4 ( 3.8 4.4 )

~11
( <3 14% 3-6 21% 6-12 30%
12-24 22% >24 13%)
( 8.5 vs. 11.1 12.2 )
36% 41%
13% 18%

2020 3.6% 2023

5.0% 5-10% 2021 10% 2022 18%
2023 29%
5- 9 2020 10% 2023 33% 10-15
2020 2% 2023 10%

Exhibit 55: 2023 5.3 56: 37% 180

24
 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 57: ~11 Exhibit 58: 36% 41%

: :

59: 60: 5-10% 10-15%

: :

Morgan Stanley Research 25

 Asia Pacific Insight

( )

: 2020
30% ~10%
>20%
: 30 12%( 2020 )
20-30 20% ~30% 1998

: 3% 4%
6% 9%
62% ( )

26
 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 61: 2020 >30% Exhibit 62: ~30%

63 :

:2020

AlphaWise 1.1 18%

2% ~10%
~20%

;
;

2023 3.29
2300 460

Morgan Stanley Research 27

 Asia Pacific Insight

2023 1480 31%

52% ( 460 )

64: AlphaWise 20% Exhibit 65: 1.1

:AlphaWise :AlphaWise

66 :

30% 50%

:NBS MOHURD

28
 Asia Pacific Insight

: 2020 20%
20 12% 30

: AlphaWise
(80-90%
)

:
AlphaWise >25%
>30%
<10% >10%
( > 2021 7 30%)
( )

2020 12% 30

:(1)55%
( 50% 100% );(2) 60%
;(3) 10
10 80
2023 5.1%
8.6%

Morgan Stanley Research 29

 Asia Pacific Insight

67: AlphaWise 68: <10%

:AlphaWise : AlphaWise

:(1) ;(2)
;(3)

1980-90
:(1)
;(2) ;(3)
;(4) ;(5)
; (6)

Exhibit 69:

:CEIC, NBS, Beke, Japan MLIT, US Census, National Association of Realtors, Hong Kong Housing Bureau, Census and Statistics Department, Singapore
Department of Statistics, HDB, Insee, ine, Morgan Stanley Research

30
 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 70: 20 80-90

90

1986-90
90

(1986-1990 ) 5.6%
1986 18%
1990 10%
1990 10% 1993 17%
1986 23% 1990
12% 1990-1993 33%

2008
2000 20-25%
1980-2000 15-20%

: 1972 (
73.2% 1.04 ) 20 70
50% 1980-2000
1975 9.2% 2018 23%(
0.3 ) 1975-1989
0.4 1994-2018 0.4

: 2003

Morgan Stanley Research 31

 Asia Pacific Insight

2003 75% 70%

2018
55% 45%

: 2018
63% ( )
(1985 75% >
~25%)
( )

Exhibit 71: Exhibit 72:

: MLIT

Exhibit 73: : MLIT

Exhibit 74:

: MLIT
: MLIT

32
 Asia Pacific Insight

75: Exhibit 76: ( )

: MLIT

: MLIT

2030

2030
800 - 900

,
,

:(1) ;(2) ;(3) ;( )

2024-2030 1500 - 1700 (2016-2021
1800 - 2000 ) 1400 - 1500 (2016-2021 1700 - 1800
) 100 - 200

200 - 300 :
2024-30 0.
78 ( 2014-23 1.17 2023 0.94 )
2030 71.7% (
) 1100
(
),

Morgan Stanley Research 33

 Asia Pacific Insight

200 300
500 :
2013 , 1980
, 7.7 mn 2023 ( 9.7 mn 2014 - 23),
7.0 mn 2024 - 30 2000
, ~ 5 mn
2024 - 30

800 - 900 :
( )
30 30
2020 2.89 ( 3.3%
) 2024-30 850

40 : 2020 2020
770 >40 1440 30-40
2023 (
) 90% >
40 70% 30-40-year-old 20 ,
0.4 mn 2024 - 30 1.3 mn

(2030 72.5%)
(2030 2.37 ) (25 )
2024-30 1800 - 1900 1600 - 1700
100 - 200

( 2030 70.8%)
( 2030 2.42 )
(35 ) 2024-30 1400 - 1500
1200 - 1300 200

34
 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 77: 2024-30 1500 - 1700 Exhibit 78: 15% 30%

50%

:CEIC

2024-2030
800 (2023 880 2016-21 1300 -
1400 ) 600 - 700
1400 - 1500
~45%(2023 40% 2022 30% 2021 22%)

46-47%
43-44%

(
>1x )
2030 43% 2040 74%(
3.1 75-85%)
2031 ~ mn > 2040 11 mn ( ~ 2.4%),
4 ~ 8 mn ~ mn

Morgan Stanley Research 35

 Asia Pacific Insight

79: 2024-30 1400 - 1500 Exhibit 80: ~45%

:CEIC Beike ]
:CEIC, Beike

81 :

36
 Asia Pacific Insight

I
:(1) (2)
(3)

: 2024-30
800 (2023 880 2016-21 1300 -
1400 )
2040 400
2023
6.93 ( 640 2024-26
800 ) NBS 1998
26
45
40 40 48
:
, CREIS 300 - , 2023
647 mn ( ~ 6.2 mn 8 mn),

( )

GDP
20% 15% ( >30%)

Morgan Stanley Research 37

 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 82: 83: 26

:NBS CEIC
:NBS CEIC

84: 85: GDP 15%

:NBS CEIC
:NBS CEIC

I
:

( )

( )

38
 Asia Pacific Insight

:
( )

( )

( )

(
SOE )

(
SOE )
10 30 50 100 12ppt 15ppt
17ppt 17ppt 2030 28% 41% 47%
53%

(
)
REIT , , ,

Morgan Stanley Research 39

 Asia Pacific Insight

Exhibit 86: 2030 10 30 Exhibit 87: 50 100 2030 17ppt

12ppt 15ppt 17ppt

:NBS CEIC, CRIC, e = :NBS CEIC, CRIC, e =

88: 89:

: Alpha :
:NBS

40
 Asia Pacific Insight

?
:

: 2023 7

2023
2024 4

( )
2024-25

30%

:2016
(
)

( )

( )

Morgan Stanley Research 41

 Asia Pacific Insight

( 30 40 )

42