CE-217

Engineering Geology and Seismology

Site effects and Seismic Hazard Assessment

Instructor:
Dr. Shahid Ullah

Earthquake Engineering Center

Department of Civil Engineering, UET Peshawar.
 Outlines of the Presentation
➢ Site effects
➢ Attenuation Relationships
➢ Seismic Hazard Assessment
➢ Seismic Risk

2
 What are Site effects?

➢ Site effects is a modification of ground motion at the surface

due to different properties of surficial geolgoy.

causative
fault
stratigraphic effects
propagation topographic effects

seismic source spectrum

3
 Estimation of site effects

1. Numerical methods
2. Empirical methods

4
Numerical methods to estimate site effects

5
Numerical methods to estimate site effects

6
 Empirical methods for site effects estimation

1. NEHRP Classification based on Vs30

Site Class Range of Shear Velocities*

A Greater than 1500 m/sec

B 760 m/sec to 1500 m/sec

C 360 m/sec to 760 m/sec

D 180 m/sec to 360 m/sec

E Less than 180 m/sec

2. Standard Spectral Ratio (SSR) (Borchert,1970)

(Reference Site Method)
3. Noise H/V Spectral Ratio (Nakamura,1989) (Non-
reference site method)
7
 Attenuation Relationships or GMPEs
Strong-motion attenuation equations are empirical equations that can be used to
estimate the values of strong-motion parameters (PGA, PGV, PGD, duration of EQ,
intensity, Peak spectral acceleration etc) as functions of independent parameters (like
magnitude, distance from the fault to the site, local geology of the site etc) that
characterise the earthquake and the site of interest.

Y = f(M, R, site)
➢ Y = ground motion parameter
➢ M=magnitude
➢ R= is a measure of distance from the fault to the site ( to take into account the path effect
➢ Site = local site conditions near the ground surface like soft, stiff, hard soil

Attenuation relationships developed for a particular region cannot be used for other
regions unless they have similar seismo-tectonic environment.

8
 Attenuation Relationships
Attenuation relationship developed by Cornell et al. (1979) for Western US.

Ln(PHA)(gals)=6.74 + 0.859M-1.8ln(R+25)

Example: A building is to be constructed at 25 Km distance away from a fault which

can generate an earthquake of magnitude 7.7. What is the PHA that the building
would experience.

ln(PHA)= 6.74 + 0.859 x 7.7 – 1.8 ln(25+25)

Ln(PHA) = 6.312
PHA=exp(6.312)
PHA=551 gal
PHA = 551/981=0.57g
1 m/s2= 100 Gals

9
 Attenuation Relationships
➢ Example of attenuation relationship developed by Boore et al. (1993) for Western
North American earthquakes.
➢ As the distance of the site/station from the fault increases ground acceleration (g)
decreases.
➢ Generally for high magnitude earthquakes acceleration is more.

Boore et al (1993)
0.80

0.70

0.60 Mw=5.5
Mw=6.5
Acceleration (g)

0.50
Mw=7.5
0.40

0.30

0.20

0.10

0.00
1 10 100 1000
Distance d (Km)

10
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
➢ In general Seismic Hazard refers to the potentially damaging
physical phenomena associated with earthquakes, such as ground
shaking, liquefaction, landslides, and tsunami.

➢ Two approaches to assess seismic hazard at a site:

(1) Deterministic Seismic Hazard Assessment (DSHA) and

(2) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA)

➢ The outcome of DSHA is estimation of ground motion parameters

at a site of interest, without any reference to the time.
➢ The outcome of PSHA is estimation of the probability of
exceedance of a certain level of ground shaking at a particular site
within a certain future time of exposure.
11
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
DSHA: Example:
➢ You want to find max. PGA at a site. The sources of possible earthquakes are
three which can develop max. magnitude of 7.3, 7.7 and 5 respectively. These
minimum distance of the site from these sources are respectively 23.7, 25, and 60
Km.
➢ Use Cornell et al. (1979) equation to find max. PGA

Source 3
Mmax=5

Source 1
Mmax=7.3
Source 2
site Mmax=7.7

12
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
➢ DSHA: Example: (Contd…)
➢ For source-2, with M=7.7 and R=25, PHA is:

➢ Ln(PHA)= 6.74 + 0.859 x 7.7 – 1.8 ln(25+25)

Ln(PHA) = 6.312
PHA=exp(6.312)
PHA=551 gal
PHA = 551/981=0.57g

➢ Similarly for source-1, PHA=0.42g, and source-3, PHA=0.02g.

➢ So Max. PGA is 0.57g, resulting from source-2 from magnitude 7.7

earthquake occurring at a distance of 25 km from site.

13
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
➢ PSHA Example:
➢ A criticism levelled against DSHA is that it does not provide
likelihood (Probability) of occurrence of a particular PGA at a site.
PSHA takes into account uncertainties associated with different
inputs and calculate probability of occurrence of a particular ground
motion parameters.

➢ PSHA assumes the likelihood of earthquakes on multiple sources at

a time.
➢ It also assumes the uncertainty in the maximum magnitude
associated with a source.

14
 Classical PSHA approach

Recurence relationships
Source model

Attenuation relationships Engine for PSHA

(GMPEs)

15
 Classical PSHA approach

Recurrence relationship
(Gutenberg-Richter
relationship):

Log(N)= a- bM

a= activity rate of
seismic source
b= slope of the
recurrence line.

16
Output of PSHA

17
 Output of PSHA

(Rock site condition) Global Seismic Hazard Map (Giardini, 1999)

18
Seismic Hazard Assessment

19
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
PSHA: Example: (Contd…)
➢ This graph is developed for a particular site. It does not apply to any other
site. On x-axis is Peak horizontal acceleration, on Y-axis is return period
(Tr).

It is hazard curve,
but instead of mean
annual rate of
exceedance, it is
given in return
period.

20
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
➢ PSHA: Example: (Contd…)
➢ PSHA Use
Suppose design life of a structure is 50 years. You want to know what is the
probability of exceedence of a PGA of 0.2g in 50 years (Use graph in the previous slide)

➢ From the graph for PGA of 0.2g, Tr = 350 years.

➢ Hence P=1-exp(t/Tr) = 1- exp(50/350) = 0.13 (13%)

➢ Hence there is probability of 13% that a PGA of 0.2g or greater

would occur in 50 years of design life of structure.

21
 Seismic Hazard Assessment
PSHA: Example: (Contd…)
Seismic Zonation Map of Pakistan

22
 Seismic Risk
SEISMIC RISK refers to the amount of damage to be expected with a certain
probability in a fixed period time. It is the composition of:

Seismic RISK = Seismic HAZARD x VULNERABILITY x EXPOSURE

➢ Seismic hazard: greater the chances of earthquake in a region (seismic hazard)

greater is seismic Risk. You cannot reduce hazard.

➢ Vulnerability: If a structure is weak, it is more vulnerable to collapse, hence Risk

is more. You can build strong buildings to reduce risk.

➢ Exposure: exposure is the value of structures and its contents, lives and other
valuables. If a building is occupied by many people or there is important and
expensive goods, the risk is more.

23
 Seismic Risk

Nature Engineers Planners

24
The End

25