GLOBAL

TERRORISM
INDEX
Measuring the impact of terrorism
on the world
Global Terrorism Index 2020

Key Findings

➢ Deaths from Terrorism fall by 15% for fifth consecutive year to 13,800

➢ ISIL core diminishes – first year where they caused less than 1,000 deaths since their inception

➢ Far-right terrorism increases 250% in last five years- from low base

➢ Deaths fall in the 4 countries with most deaths

➢ ISIL centre of gravity shifts to sub-Saharan Africa – 7 of 10 largest increases in SSA

➢ ISIL affiliates launch attacks in 27 countries

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Key Findings, 2020 GTI 18 000

16 000 646
444 86

14 000 2 043
• Terrorism has been on a 569 Somalia

DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

592 Mali
downward trend since its peak 12 000
593 Burkina Faso
in 2014 1 245 Nigeria

10 000
7 379
• Terrorism deaths decreased by 8 000 5 725 Afghanistan
15.5% between 2018 and 2019
6 000

4 000
5 762
5 102 All other
2 000 countries

0
2018 2019

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Countries – Increases in Deaths from Terrorism in 2019
Deaths from terrorism in Burkina Faso increased six fold in 2019

600

507
500
CHANGE IN DEATHS

400

300 265

200 186
149 148
130
100
52 51 51 41

0
Burkina Faso Sri Lanka Mozambique Democratic Mali Yemen Niger Cameroon New Zealand Ethiopia
Republic of the
Congo
Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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 Deadliest Terrorist Groups, 2002-2019
The Taliban were the deadliest terrorist group for the second consecutive year

35 000 10 000
All other groups Unknown Taliban ISIL
Boko Haram ISIL
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

Boko Haram Al-Shabaab

30 000 Taliban Al-Shabaab
8 000

25 000

6 000
20 000

15 000 4 000

10 000
2 000
5 000

0 0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations

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Trend in terrorism deaths by region, 2002-2019
In 2019, the number of terrorism deaths in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa exceeded deaths recorded in MENA

15 000
Middle East and North Africa
South Asia
DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

sub-Saharan Africa
12 000

9 000

6 000

3 000

0
2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2019
Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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 Deaths from terrorism by decade, 2000-2019
The last decade was the deadliest on record with over 182,000 terrorism deaths, compared to 72,000 in the 2000s

200 000
Rest of the
180 000 9 968 World

DEATHS FROM TERRORISM

160 000 sub-Saharan
44 615 Africa
140 000

120 000

100 000 57 524 South Asia

80 000
11 901
60 000
7 612
40 000 21 968 Middle East
69 953 and North
20 000
30 381
0
2000s 2010s
Source: START GTD, IEP Calculations
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 Regional distribution of ISIL-related terrorism deaths, 2013-2019
By 2019, less than a third of ISIL deaths from terrorism occurred in the MENA region

100%
% OF ISIL-RELATED TERRORISM DEATHS

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

Middle East and North Africa

30%
sub-Saharan Africa
20% South Asia

10% Rest of the World

0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: START GTD, IEP calculations

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Counter-Terrorism and
Peace-Building in the
Sahel countries
 Issues and challenges : interconnectedness of symptoms
and causes

➢ Challenged by armed conflict, economic insecurity and the adverse effects of climate change

➢ Violent extremism and armed groups as symptoms of deeper unresolved issues

➢ Drivers of conflict : political, economic, food and migration instability (OCDE)

➢ Vulnerability from depleted soils and scarcity of resources with impacts on political and economic security

➢ Change of the conflict dynamics through the recruitment of people in fragile economic conditions

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 Issues and challenges : interconnectedness of symptoms
and causes

➢ Recession or low economic growth : between -2 and 1 per cent of GDP growth in 2020 worsened by
the Covid-19 Pandemic
➢ Increasing impoverishment in rural areas living off agriculture and suffering from for environmental
conditions
➢ Increase in military spending instead of devoting a larger part of the budget to promote economic
growth or the survival of the service sector
➢ Investing in hard security = Short term response

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 Destabilization of the Sahel countries: the next Afghanistan?

❑ Global Peace Index : Burkina Faso as the greatest deterioration in 2021, Niger and Mali face a slight
deterioration due to rising armed groups and conflicts
❑ Positive Peace Index : Low levels of Positive Peace mainly because of the lack of acceptance of the rights of
others, bad relations with the neighbouring countries, corruption and the unequal distribution of resources ➔
Targeting the weakest positive peace pillar as a mean to resilience-building
❑ Economic Value of Peace : From 7 to 14 per cent of the yearly GDP mainly in military expenditures that are
surpassed by the economic costs of terrorism
❑ Ecological Threat Register : Water shortages in Burkina Faso, food insecurity in Niger, productions destroyed
by droughts or floods = degradation of living standards conditions and conflicts for the appropriation of the
resources
➔ Resolution through inclusive governance with a local-based approach and a return to the Algiers Accord
of 2015 accompanied by a refocus on development

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