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13th Edition
Understandable
Statistics
Concepts and Methods
BRASE • BRASE
DOLOR • SEIBERT
Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution
(a) Table of Areas to the Left of z
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
23.4 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0003 .0002
23.3 .0005 .0005 .0005 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0004 .0003
23.2 .0007 .0007 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0006 .0005 .0005 .0005
z 0 23.1 .0010 .0009 .0009 .0009 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0008 .0007 .0007
23.0 .0013 .0013 .0013 .0012 .0012 .0011 .0011 .0011 .0010 .0010
The table entry for z is the area to
the left of z. 22.9 .0019 .0018 .0018 .0017 .0016 .0016 .0015 .0015 .0014 .0014
22.8 .0026 .0025 .0024 .0023 .0023 .0022 .0021 .0021 .0020 .0019
22.7 .0035 .0034 .0033 .0032 .0031 .0030 .0029 .0028 .0027 .0026
22.6 .0047 .0045 .0044 .0043 .0041 .0040 .0039 .0038 .0037 .0036
22.5 .0062 .0060 .0059 .0057 .0055 .0054 .0052 .0051 .0049 .0048
22.4 .0082 .0080 .0078 .0075 .0073 .0071 .0069 .0068 .0066 .0064
22.3 .0107 .0104 .0102 .0099 .0096 .0094 .0091 .0089 .0087 .0084
22.2 .0139 .0136 .0132 .0129 .0125 .0122 .0119 .0116 .0113 .0110
22.1 .0179 .0174 .0170 .0166 .0162 .0158 .0154 .0150 .0146 .0143
22.0 .0228 .0222 .0217 .0212 .0207 .0202 .0197 .0192 .0188 .0183
21.9 .0287 .0281 .0274 .0268 .0262 .0256 .0250 .0244 .0239 .0233
21.8 .0359 .0351 .0344 .0336 .0329 .0322 .0314 .0307 .0301 .0294
21.7 .0446 .0436 .0427 .0418 .0409 .0401 .0392 .0384 .0375 .0367
21.6 .0548 .0537 .0526 .0516 .0505 .0495 .0485 .0475 .0465 .0455
21.5 .0668 .0655 .0643 .0630 .0618 .0606 .0594 .0582 .0571 .0559
21.4 .0808 .0793 .0778 .0764 .0749 .0735 .0721 .0708 .0694 .0681
21.3 .0968 .0951 .0934 .0918 .0901 .0885 .0869 .0853 .0838 .0823
21.2 .1151 .1131 .1112 .1093 .1075 .1056 .1038 .1020 .1003 .0985
21.1 .1357 .1335 .1314 .1292 .1271 .1251 .1230 .1210 .1190 .1170
21.0 .1587 .1562 .1539 .1515 .1492 .1469 .1446 .1423 .1401 .1379
20.9 .1841 .1814 .1788 .1762 .1736 .1711 .1685 .1660 .1635 .1611
20.8 .2119 .2090 .2061 .2033 .2005 .1977 .1949 .1922 .1894 .1867
20.7 .2420 .2389 .2358 .2327 .2296 .2266 .2236 .2206 .2177 .2148
20.6 .2743 .2709 .2676 .2643 .2611 .2578 .2546 .2514 .2483 .2451
20.5 .3085 .3050 .3015 .2981 .2946 .2912 .2877 .2843 .2810 .2776
20.4 .3446 .3409 .3372 .3336 .3300 .3264 .3228 .3192 .3156 .3121
20.3 .3821 .3783 .3745 .3707 .3669 .3632 .3594 .3557 .3520 .3483
20.2 .4207 .4168 .4129 .4090 .4052 .4013 .3974 .3936 .3897 .3859
20.1 .4602 .4562 .4522 .4483 .4443 .4404 .4364 .4325 .4286 .4247
20.0 .5000 .4960 .4920 .4880 .4840 .4801 .4761 .4721 .4681 .4641
For values of z less than 23.49, use 0.000 to approximate the area.
Copyright 2023 Cengage Learning. All Rights Reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution continued
z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09
0.0 .5000 .5040 .5080 .5120 .5160 .5199 .5239 .5279 .5319 .5359
0.1 .5398 .5438 .5478 .5517 .5557 .5596 .5636 .5675 .5714 .5753
0.2 .5793 .5832 .5871 .5910 .5948 .5987 .6026 .6064 .6103 .6141
0.3 .6179 .6217 .6255 .6293 .6331 .6368 .6406 .6443 .6480 .6517
0 z 0.4 .6554 .6591 .6628 .6664 .6700 .6736 .6772 .6808 .6844 .6879
0.5 .6915 .6950 .6985 .7019 .7054 .7088 .7123 .7157 .7190 .7224
The table entry for z is the area to
0.6 .7257 .7291 .7324 .7357 .7389 .7422 .7454 .7486 .7517 .7549
the left of z.
0.7 .7580 .7611 .7642 .7673 .7704 .7734 .7764 .7794 .7823 .7852
0.8 .7881 .7910 .7939 .7967 .7995 .8023 .8051 .8078 .8106 .8133
0.9 .8159 .8186 .8212 .8238 .8264 .8289 .8315 .8340 .8365 .8389
1.0 .8413 .8438 .8461 .8485 .8508 .8531 .8554 .8577 .8599 .8621
1.1 .8643 .8665 .8686 .8708 .8729 .8749 .8770 .8790 .8810 .8830
1.2 .8849 .8869 .8888 .8907 .8925 .8944 .8962 .8980 .8997 .9015
1.3 .9032 .9049 .9066 .9082 .9099 .9115 .9131 .9147 .9162 .9177
1.4 .9192 .9207 .9222 .9236 .9251 .9265 .9279 .9292 .9306 .9319
1.5 .9332 .9345 .9357 .9370 .9382 .9394 .9406 .9418 .9429 .9441
1.6 .9452 .9463 .9474 .9484 .9495 .9505 .9515 .9525 .9535 .9545
1.7 .9554 .9564 .9573 .9582 .9591 .9599 .9608 .9616 .9625 .9633
1.8 .9641 .9649 .9656 .9664 .9671 .9678 .9686 .9693 .9699 .9706
1.9 .9713 .9719 .9726 .9732 .9738 .9744 .9750 .9756 .9761 .9767
2.0 .9772 .9778 .9783 .9788 .9793 .9798 .9803 .9808 .9812 .9817
2.1 .9821 .9826 .9830 .9834 .9838 .9842 .9846 .9850 .9854 .9857
2.2 .9861 .9864 .9868 .9871 .9875 .9878 .9881 .9884 .9887 .9890
2.3 .9893 .9896 .9898 .9901 .9904 .9906 .9909 .9911 .9913 .9916
2.4 .9918 .9920 .9922 .9925 .9927 .9929 .9931 .9932 .9934 .9936
2.5 .9938 .9940 .9941 .9943 .9945 .9946 .9948 .9949 .9951 .9952
2.6 .9953 .9955 .9956 .9957 .9959 .9960 .9961 .9962 .9963 .9964
2.7 .9965 .9966 .9967 .9968 .9969 .9970 .9971 .9972 .9973 .9974
2.8 .9974 .9975 .9976 .9977 .9977 .9978 .9979 .9979 .9980 .9981
2.9 .9981 .9982 .9982 .9983 .9984 .9984 .9985 .9985 .9986 .9986
3.0 .9987 .9987 .9987 .9988 .9988 .9989 .9989 .9989 .9990 .9990
3.1 .9990 .9991 .9991 .9991 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9992 .9993 .9993
Areas of a Standard Normal
3.2 .9993 .9993 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9994 .9995 .9995 .9995
Distribution continued
3.3 .9995 .9995 .9995 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9996 .9997
(b) Confidence Interval 3.4 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9997 .9998
Critical Values zc
For z values greater than 3.49, use 1.000 to approximate the area.
Level of Critical
Confidence c Value zc
0.70, or 70% 1.04
0.75, or 75% 1.15
Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution continued
0.80, or 80% 1.28
0.85, or 85% 1.44 (c) Hypothesis Testing, Critical Values z0
0.90, or 90% 1.645 Level of Significance A 5 0.05 A 5 0.01
0.95, or 95% 1.96 Critical value z0 for a left-tailed test 21.645 22.33
0.98, or 98% 2.33 Critical value z0 for a right-tailed test 1.645 2.33
0.99, or 99% 2.58 Critical values 6z0 for a two-tailed test 61.96 62.58
c is a confidence level
Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution
one-tail area 0.250 0.125 0.100 0.075 0.050 0.025 0.010 0.005 0.0005
two-tail area 0.500 0.250 0.200 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.020 0.010 0.0010
Area c d.f. c 0.500 0.750 0.800 0.850 0.900 0.950 0.980 0.990 0.999
1 1.000 2.414 3.078 4.165 6.314 12.706 31.821 63.657 636.619
–t 0 t 2 0.816 1.604 1.886 2.282 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.599

3 0.765 1.423 1.638 1.924 2.353 3.182 4.541 5.841 12.924
4 0.741 1.344 1.533 1.778 2.132 2.776 3.747 4.604 8.610
5 0.727 1.301 1.476 1.699 2.015 2.571 3.365 4.032 6.869
6 0.718 1.273 1.440 1.650 1.943 2.447 3.143 3.707 5.959
One-tail area
7 0.711 1.254 1.415 1.617 1.895 2.365 2.998 3.499 5.408
8 0.706 1.240 1.397 1.592 1.860 2.306 2.896 3.355 5.041
9 0.703 1.230 1.383 1.574 1.833 2.262 2.821 3.250 4.781
Right-tail
area 10 0.700 1.221 1.372 1.559 1.812 2.228 2.764 3.169 4.587
11 0.697 1.214 1.363 1.548 1.796 2.201 2.718 3.106 4.437
0 t 12 0.695 1.209 1.356 1.538 1.782 2.179 2.681 3.055 4.318
13 0.694 1.204 1.350 1.530 1.771 2.160 2.650 3.012 4.221
14 0.692 1.200 1.345 1.523 1.761 2.145 2.624 2.977 4.140
15 0.691 1.197 1.341 1.517 1.753 2.131 2.602 2.947 4.073
Left-tail
16 0.690 1.194 1.337 1.512 1.746 2.120 2.583 2.921 4.015
area 17 0.689 1.191 1.333 1.508 1.740 2.110 2.567 2.898 3.965
18 0.688 1.189 1.330 1.504 1.734 2.101 2.552 2.878 3.922
–t 0
19 0.688 1.187 1.328 1.500 1.729 2.093 2.539 2.861 3.883
20 0.687 1.185 1.325 1.497 1.725 2.086 2.528 2.845 3.850
21 0.686 1.183 1.323 1.494 1.721 2.080 2.518 2.831 3.819
22 0.686 1.182 1.321 1.492 1.717 2.074 2.508 2.819 3.792
Two-tail area 23 0.685 1.180 1.319 1.489 1.714 2.069 2.500 2.807 3.768
24 0.685 1.179 1.318 1.487 1.711 2.064 2.492 2.797 3.745
25 0.684 1.178 1.316 1.485 1.708 2.060 2.485 2.787 3.725
Area
26 0.684 1.177 1.315 1.483 1.706 2.056 2.479 2.779 3.707
27 0.684 1.176 1.314 1.482 1.703 2.052 2.473 2.771 3.690
28 0.683 1.175 1.313 1.480 1.701 2.048 2.467 2.763 3.674
–t 0 t
29 0.683 1.174 1.311 1.479 1.699 2.045 2.462 2.756 3.659
30 0.683 1.173 1.310 1.477 1.697 2.042 2.457 2.750 3.646
35 0.682 1.170 1.306 1.472 1.690 2.030 2.438 2.724 3.591
STATISTICS FORMULA CARD 40 0.681 1.167 1.303 1.468 1.684 2.021 2.423 2.704 3.551
for Brase/Brase. Understandable Statistics
Copyright © Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 45 0.680 1.165 1.301 1.465 1.679 2.014 2.412 2.690 3.520
50 0.679 1.164 1.299 1.462 1.676 2.009 2.403 2.678 3.496
60 0.679 1.162 1.296 1.458 1.671 2.000 2.390 2.660 3.460
70 0.678 1.160 1.294 1.456 1.667 1.994 2.381 2.648 3.435
80 0.678 1.159 1.292 1.453 1.664 1.990 2.374 2.639 3.416
100 0.677 1.157 1.290 1.451 1.660 1.984 2.364 2.626 3.390
500 0.675 1.152 1.283 1.442 1.648 1.965 2.334 2.586 3.310
1000 0.675 1.151 1.282 1.441 1.646 1.962 2.330 2.581 3.300
` 0.674 1.150 1.282 1.440 1.645 1.960 2.326 2.576 3.291
For degrees of freedom d.f. not in the table, use the closest d.f. that is smaller.
f 5 frequency s 5 sample standard deviation p̂ 5 sample proportion
n 5 sample size  5 population standard deviation p5 population proportion
N_ 5 population size s2 5 sample variance p5 probability of success
x 5 sample mean  2 5 population variance q5 probability of failure
m 5 population mean
THIRTEENTH EDITION
Understandable
Statistics
CONCEPTS AND METHODS
Charles Henry Brase

REGIS UNIVERSITY
Corrinne Pellillo Brase

ARAPAHOE COMMUNITY COLLEGE
Jason Dolor
PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY
James Seibert
REGIS UNIVERSITY
Australia • Brazil • Canada • Mexico • Singapore • United Kingdom • United States
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Methods, Thirteenth Edition
Charles Henry Brase, Corrinne Pellillo No part of this work covered by the copyright herein may be reproduced or
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Printed in the United States of America

Print Number: 02 Print Year: 2022
This book is dedicated to the memory of
a great teacher, mathematician, and friend
Burton W. Jones
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado
iv
Contents
Preface viii
Table of Prerequisite Material xxv
1 Getting Started 2
FOCUS PROBLEM: Where Have All the Fireflies Gone? 3
1.1 What Is Statistics? 4
1.2 Random Samples 12
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design 20
Summary 30
Important Words & Symbols 30
Chapter Review Problems 31
Data Highlights: Group Projects 33
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects 33
USING TECHNOLOGY 34
2 Organizing Data 36
FOCUS PROBLEM: Say It with Pictures 37
2.1 Frequency Distributions, Histograms, and Related Topics 39
2.2 Bar Graphs, Circle Graphs, and Time-Series Graphs 57
2.3 Stem-and-Leaf Displays 66
Summary 75
USING TECHNOLOGY 80
3 Averages and Variation 84

FOCUS PROBLEM: Water: Yellowstone River 85
3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 86
3.2 Measures of Variation 96
3.3 Percentiles and Box-and-Whisker Plots 112
Summary 122
USING TECHNOLOGY 127
Cumulative Review Problems 129
iv
CONTENTS v
4 Elementary Probability Theory 132

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Often Do Lie Detectors Lie? 133
4.1 What Is Probability? 134
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 145
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques 164
Summary 175
5 The Binomial Probability Distribution

and Related Topics 182
FOCUS PROBLEM: Experiencing Other Cultures: How Many International Students? 183
5.1 Introduction to Random Variables and Probability Distributions 184
5.2 Binomial Probabilities 193
5.3 Additional Properties of the Binomial Distribution 208
5.4 The Geometric and Poisson Probability Distributions (eTextbook only)
Summary 220
6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 228

FOCUS PROBLEM: Impulse Buying 229
PART I: Normal Distributions 230
6.1 Graphs of Normal Probability Distributions 230
6.2 Standard Units and Areas Under the Standard Normal Distribution 242
6.3 Areas Under Any Normal Curve 252
PART I: Summary 267
PART II: Sampling Distributions and the Normal Approximation to Binomial
Distribution 267
6.4 Sampling Distributions 267
6.5 The Central Limit Theorem 275
6.6 Normal Approximation to the Binomial Distribution and to the pˆ
Distribution 286
PART II: Summary 295
Summary 296
7 Estimation 308
FOCUS PROBLEM: The Trouble with Wood Ducks 309
PART I: Estimating a Single Mean or Single Proportion 310
7.1 Estimating m When σ Is Known 310
vi CONTENTS
7.2 Estimating m When σ Is Unknown 323

7.3 Estimating p in the Binomial Distribution 335
PART I: Summary 349
PART II: Estimating the Difference Between Two Means or Two
Proportions 349
7.4 Estimating m1 − m2 and p1 − p2 350
Summary 371
8 Hypothesis Testing 382

FOCUS PROBLEM: Benford’s Law: The Importance of Being Number 1 383
PART I: Testing a Single Mean or Single Proportion 384
8.1 Introduction to Statistical Tests 384
8.2 Testing the Mean m 400
8.3 Testing a Proportion p 415
PART I: Summary 426
PART II: Testing a Difference Between Two Means or Two
Proportions 426
8.4 Tests Involving Paired Differences (Dependent Samples) 427
8.5 Testing m1 − m2 and p1 − p2 (Independent Samples) 439
Summary 462
Finding the P-Value Corresponding to a Sample Test
Statistic 462
9 Correlation and Regression 470

FOCUS PROBLEM: Changing Populations and Crime Rate 471
PART I: Simple Linear Regression 472
9.1 Scatter Diagrams and Linear Correlation 472
9.2 Linear Regression and the Coefficient of Determination 488
9.3 Inferences for Correlation and Regression 503
PART I: Summary 522
PART II: Multiple Regression 522
9.4 Multiple Regression 523
Summary 537
CONTENTS vii
10 Chi-Square and F Distributions548

FOCUS PROBLEM: Archaeology in Bandelier National Monument 549
PART I: Inferences Using the Chi-Square Distribution 550
10.1 Chi-Square: Tests of Independence and of Homogeneity 551
10.2 Chi-Square: Goodness of Fit 566
10.3 Testing and Estimating a Single Variance or Standard Deviation 575
PART I: Summary 587
PART II: Inferences Using the F Distribution 588
10.4 Testing Two Variances 589
10.5 One-Way ANOVA: Comparing Several Sample Means 598
10.6 Introduction to Two-Way ANOVA 614
Summary 626
Part I 626
Part II 626
Part I 626
Part II 626
11 Nonparametric Statistics 634

FOCUS PROBLEM: How Cold? Compared to What? 635
11.1 The Sign Test for Matched Pairs 636
11.2 The Rank-Sum Test 643
11.3 Spearman Rank Correlation 650
11.4 Runs Test for Randomness 660
Summary 669
Appendix I: Additional Topics (eTextbook only) A1

PART I: Bayes’s Theorem
PART II: The Hypergeometric Probability Distribution
Appendix II: Tables A3

Table 1: Random Numbers A3
Table 2: Binomial Coefficients Cn,r A4
Table 3: Binomial Probability Distribution Cn,r prqn2r A5
Table 4: Poisson Probability Distribution A10
Table 5: Areas of a Standard Normal Distribution A16
Table 6: Critical Values for Student’s t Distribution A18
Table 7: The χ Distribution A19
2
Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A20

Table 9: Critical Values for Spearman Rank Correlation, rs A30
Table 10: Critical Values for Number of Runs R (Level of Significance a 5 0.05) A31
Answers and Key Steps to Odd-Numbered Problems A33
Index I1
viii Preface
Preface
Welcome to the exciting world of statistics! We have written this text to make statis-
tics accessible to everyone, including those with a limited mathematics background.
Statistics affects all aspects of our lives. Whether we are testing new medical devices
or determining what will entertain us, applications of statistics are so numerous that,
in a sense, we are limited only by our own imagination in discovering new uses for
statistics.
Overview
The thirteenth edition of Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods contin-
ues to emphasize concepts of statistics that are covered in Introductory Statistics
courses. Statistical methods are carefully presented with a focus on understanding
both the suitability of the method and the meaning of the result. Statistical methods
and measurements are developed in the context of applications.
Critical thinking and interpretation are essential in understanding and evaluat-
ing information. Statistical literacy is fundamental for applying and comprehending
statistical results. In this edition we have expanded and highlighted the treatment
of statistical literacy, critical thinking, and interpretation. Updated Critical Thinking
activities give students opportunities to deeply explore concepts through hands-
on learning that challenge student thinking beyond procedural fluency. Revised
Viewpoint boxes also help students synthesize what they’ve learned by engaging
with real data and applying concepts to real-world situations.
We have retained and expanded features that made the first 12 editions of the
text very readable. Definition boxes highlight important terms. Procedure displays
summarize steps for analyzing data. Examples, exercises, and problems have been
updated for currency, relevancy, and an increased focus on diversity, equity, and in-
clusion. Additionally, the Cengage Instructor Center at faculty.cengage.com contains
more than 100 data sets and technology guides.
WebAssign for Brase/Brase’s Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods,

Thirteenth Edition, puts powerful tools in the hands of instructors with a flexible
and fully customizable online instructional solution, enabling them to deploy as-
signments, instantly assess individual student and class performance, and help stu-
dents master the course concepts. With WebAssign’s powerful digital platform and
Understandable Statistics’ specific content, instructors can tailor their course with a
wide range of assignment settings, add their own questions and content, and connect
with students effectively using communication tools.
Major Changes in the Thirteenth Edition

With each new edition, the authors reevaluate the scope, appropriateness, and effec-
tiveness of the text’s presentation and reflect on extensive user feedback. Revisions
have been made throughout the text to clarify explanations of important concepts,
engage students in discussion and active learning using simulations, and help all
students feel included in the content.
viii
Preface ix
Global Updates
• Contexts throughout the text have been updated to improve diversity, equity, and
inclusion.
• Examples, Guided Exercises, and Problems have been updated for currency and
relevancy.
• Critical Thinking and Viewpoint boxes have been revised to engage students in
discussions and hands-on learning using simulations and real data, including data
from Cengage’s Dataset Hub.
• SALT (Statistical Analysis and Learning Tool) has been incorporated into the Tech
Notes and Using Technology sections.
• Over 100 new exercises have been added.
• Expand Your Knowledge has been streamlined to incorporate relevant content into the
main text and remove content that was beyond the scope of the learning objectives.
Chapter Updates
• Chapter 2: Organizing Data
New Focus Problem on Covid-19.
∞
• Chapter 3: Averages and Variation

New introduction to Standard Deviation in Section 3.2.
∞
New coverage on Grouped Data in Section 3.2.

∞
• Chapter 4: Elementary Probability Theory

New explanation of the Law of Large Numbers in Section 4.1.
∞
New discussion of events with very high or very low probabilities in Section 4.1.
∞
New Critical Thinking simulation activity on probability in Section 4.1.

∞
• Chapter 5: The Binomial Probability Distribution and Related Topics

New Focus Problem on Experiencing Other Cultures.
∞
Removed coverage of “Linear Functions of a Random Variable” and “Linear

∞
Combinations of Independent Random Variables” in Section 5.1.

Removed coverage of “Sampling Without Replacement: Use of the Hypergeometric
∞
Probability Distribution” in Section 5.2.

Section 5.4 updated and available in the etextbook only.
∞
• Chapter 6: Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions

Introduction to sampling distributions significantly expanded to include a p̂ distribu-
∞
tion example and exercises assessing the normality distributions in Section 6.4.
New Critical Thinking activity on p̂ distribution in Section 6.4.
∞
New Critical Thinking simulation activity on sampling distributions in Section 6.4.

∞
• Chapter 7: Estimation
New Critical Thinking simulation activity on confidence intervals in Section 7.1.
∞
New Critical Thinking simulation activity on how confidence level, sample size,
∞
and sample proportion impact a confidence interval for a proportion in Section 7.3.
• Chapter 8: Hypothesis Testing
Expanded explanation of p-value with accompanying Critical Thinking activity
∞
in Section 8.1.
New Critical Thinking simulation activity on Hypothesis Testing in Section 8.3.
∞
• Chapter 9: Correlation and Regression

New Critical Thinking simulation activity on the effects of outliers on regression
∞
and correlation in Section 9.2.
Continuing Content
Critical Thinking, Interpretation, and Statistical Literacy
The thirteenth edition of this text continues and expands the emphasis on critical
thinking, interpretation, and statistical literacy. Calculators and computers are very
good at providing numerical results of statistical processes. However, numbers from
x Preface
a computer or calculator display are meaningless unless the user knows how to in-
terpret the results and if the statistical process is appropriate. This text helps students
determine whether or not a statistical method or process is appropriate. It helps stu-
dents understand what a statistic measures. It helps students interpret the results of a
confidence interval, hypothesis test, or linear regression model.
Introduction of Hypothesis Testing Using P-Values

In keeping with the use of computer technology and standard practice in research,
hypothesis testing is introduced using P-values. The critical region method is still
supported but not given primary emphasis.
Use of Student’s t Distribution in Confidence Intervals and

Testing of Means
If the normal distribution is used in confidence intervals and testing of means, then
the population standard deviation must be known. If the population standard devia-
tion is not known, then under conditions described in the text, the Student’s t distri-
bution is used. This is the most commonly used procedure in statistical research. It
is also used in statistical software packages such as Microsoft Excel, Minitab, SPSS,
and TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-Nspire calculators.
Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests of Difference

of Means
If the normal distribution is used, then both population standard deviations must be
known. When this is not the case, the Student’s t distribution incorporates an approx-
imation for t, with a commonly used conservative choice for the degrees of freedom.
Satterthwaite’s approximation for the degrees of freedom as used in computer soft-
ware is also discussed. The pooled standard deviation is presented for appropriate
applications (s1 ≈ s2).
Features in the Thirteenth Edition

Chapter and Section Lead-ins
• Preview Questions at the beginning of each chapter are keyed to the sections.
• Focus Problems at the beginning of each chapter demonstrate types of questions
students can answer once they master the concepts and skills presented in the
chapter.
• Learning Objectives at the beginning of each section describe what students should
be able to do after completing the section.
Carefully Developed Pedagogy

• Examples show students how to select and use appropriate procedures.
• Guided Exercises within the sections give students an opportunity to work with a
new concept. Completely worked-out solutions appear beside each exercise to give
immediate reinforcement.
• Definition boxes highlight important terminology throughout the text.
• Procedure displays summarize key strategies for carrying out statistical proce-
dures and methods. Conditions required for using the procedure are also stated.
• What Does (a concept, method or result) Tell Us? summarizes information we
obtain from the named concepts and statistical processes and gives insight for
additional application.
• Important Features of a (concept, method, or result) summarizes the features of
the listed item.
Preface xi
• Looking Forward features give a brief preview of how a current topic is used later.
• Labels for each example or guided exercise highlight the technique, concept, or
process illustrated by the example or guided exercise. In addition, labels for sec-
tion and chapter problems describe the field of application and show the wide
variety of subjects in which statistics is used.
• Section and chapter problems require the student to use all the new concepts mas-
tered in the section or chapter. Problem sets include a variety of real-world appli-
cations with data or settings from identifiable sources. Key steps and solutions to
odd-numbered problems appear at the end of the book.
• Basic Computation problems ask students to practice using formulas and statistical
methods on very small data sets. Such practice helps students understand what a
statistic measures.
• Statistical Literacy problems ask students to focus on correct terminology and
processes of appropriate statistical methods. Such problems occur in every section
and chapter problem set.
• Interpretation problems ask students to explain the meaning of the statistical
results in the context of the application.
• Critical Thinking problems ask students to analyze and comment on various issues
that arise in the application of statistical methods and in the interpretation of
results. These problems occur in every section and chapter problem set.
• Cumulative review problem sets occur after every third chapter and include key
topics from previous chapters. Answers to all cumulative review problems are
given at the end of the book.
• Data Highlights and Linking Concepts provide group projects and writing projects.
• Viewpoints present real data in context and ask students to analyze and interpret
the data using what they’ve learned.
• Critical Thinking activities strengthen conceptual understanding by engaging stu-
dents in discussions and hands-on learning using simulations.
Technology Within the Text

• Tech Notes within sections provide brief point-of-use instructions for the
TI-84Plus, TI-83Plus, and TI-Nspire (with 84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft
Excel, SALT, and Minitab.
• Using Technology sections show the use of SPSS as well as the TI-84Plus,
TI-83Plus, and TI-Nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) calculators, Microsoft Excel,
SALT, and Minitab.
Alternate Routes Through the Text

Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods, Thirteenth Edition, is designed
to be flexible. It offers the professor a choice of teaching possibilities. In most
one-semester courses, it is not practical to cover all the material in depth. However,
depending on the emphasis of the course, the professor may choose to cover various
topics. For help in topic selection, refer to the Table of Prerequisite Material on
page 1.
• Introducing linear regression early. For courses requiring an early presentation of
linear regression, the descriptive components of linear regression (Sections 9.1 and
9.2) can be presented any time after Chapter 3. However, inference topics involv-
ing predictions, the correlation coefficient r, and the slope of the least-squares
line b require an introduction to confidence intervals (Sections 7.1 and 7.2) and
hypothesis testing (Sections 8.1 and 8.2).
• Probability. For courses requiring minimal probability, Section 4.1 (What Is
Probability?) and the first part of Section 4.2 (Some Probability Rules—Compound
Events) will be sufficient.
xii Preface
Instructor Resources
Additional resources for this product are available in the Cengage Instructor Center.
Instructor assets include a Complete Solutions Manual, PowerPoint® slides, Guide
to Teaching Online, Educator’s Guide, a test bank powered by Cognero®, and more.
Sign up or sign in at faculty.cengage.com to search for and access this product and
its online resources.
• Complete Solutions Manual—provides solutions and answers to textbook ques-
tions.
• PowerPoint® slides—support lectures with definitions, formulas, examples, and
activities.
• Guide to Teaching Online—offers tips for teaching online and incorporating
WebAssign activities into your course.
• Educator’s Guide—offers suggested content for WebAssign by chapter to help you
personalize your course.
• Cengage Testing, powered by Cognero®—a flexible, online system that allows you
to access, customize, and deliver a test bank from your chosen text to your students
through your LMS or another channel outside of Webassign.
• Data Sets—provide the data from textbook exercises in downloadable files.
• Technology Guides—help students work through problems using TI-83, TI-84,
TI-Nspire calculators, Excel, Minitab, and SPSS.
• Transition Guide—outlines changes between the 12th and 13th editions of the
textbook.
Acknowledgments
It is our pleasure to acknowledge all of the reviewers, past and present, who have
helped make this book what it is over its thirteen editions:
Reza Abbasian, Texas Lutheran University

Paul Ache, Kutztown University
Kathleen Almy, Rock Valley College
Polly Amstutz, University of Nebraska at Kearney
Delores Anderson, Truett-McConnell College
Peter Arvanites, Rockland Community College
Robert J. Astalos, Feather River College
Jorge Baca, Cosumnes River College
Lynda L. Ballou, Kansas State University
Wayne Barber, Chemeketa Community College
Molly Beauchman, Yavapai College
Nick Belloit, Florida State College at Jacksonville
Kimberly Benien, Wharton County Junior College
Mary Benson, Pensacola Junior College
Larry Bernett, Benedictine University
Kiran Bhutani, The Catholic University of America
Abraham Biggs, Broward Community College
Kristy E. Bland, Valdosta State University
John Bray, Broward Community College
Bill Burgin, Gaston College
Dexter Cahoy, Louisiana Tech University
Maggy Carney, Burlington County College
Toni Carroll, Siena Heights University
Pinyuen Chen, Syracuse University
Emmanuel des-Bordes, James A. Rhodes State College
Jennifer M. Dollar, Grand Rapids Community College
Christopher Donnelly, Macomb Community College
Preface xiii
Kathleen Donoghue, Robert Morris University

Larry E. Dunham, Wor-Wic Community College
Andrew Ellett, Indiana University
Ruby Evans, Keiser University
Sherrie Fenner, Lehigh Carbon Community College
Mary Fine, Moberly Area Community College
Rebecca Fouguette, Santa Rosa Junior College
Rene Garcia, Miami-Dade Community College
Nicholas Gorgievski, Nichols College
Larry Green, Lake Tahoe Community College
Shari Harris, John Wood Community College
Janice Hector, DeAnza College
Tammy Hoyle, Gardner-Webb University
Jane Keller, Metropolitan Community College
Raja Khoury, Collin County Community College
Diane Koenig, Rock Valley College
Jenna Kowalski, Anoka-Ramsey Community College
Kewal Krishan, Hudson County Community College
Charles G. Laws, Cleveland State Community College
Tracy Leshan, Baltimore City Community College
Michael R. Lloyd, Henderson State University
Beth Long, Pellissippi State Technical and Community College
Lewis Lum, University of Portland
Darcy P. Mays, Virginia Commonwealth University
Cindy Moss, San Mateo County Community College
Meike Niederhausen, University of Portland
Charles C. Okeke, College of Southern Nevada, Las Vegas
Peg Pankowski, Community College of Allegheny County
Deanna Payton, Northern Oklahoma College in Stillwater
Michael Perry, Loyola University Chicago
Ram Polepeddi, Westwood College, Denver North Campus
Azar Raiszadeh, Chattanooga State Technical Community College
Jennifer Reeb, Oakton Community College
Traei Reed, St. Johns River Community College
Michael L. Russo, Suffolk County Community College
Alan Safer, California State University, Long Beach
Janel Schultz, Saint Mary’s University of Minnesota
Sankara Sethuraman, Augusta State University
Stephen Soltys, West Chester University of Pennsylvania
Ron Spicer, Colorado Technical University
Winson Taam, Oakland University
Jennifer L. Taggart, Rockford College
William Truman, University of North Carolina at Pembroke
Michelle Van Wagoner, Nashville State Community College
Bill White, University of South Carolina Upstate
Jim Wienckowski, State University of New York at Buffalo
Stephen M. Wilkerson, Susquehanna University
Ping Ye, University of North Georgia
Hongkai Zhang, East Central University
Shunpu Zhang, University of Alaska, Fairbanks
Cathy Zucco-Teveloff, Trinity College
The authors of the current edition, Jason Dolor and James Seibert, would
e specially like to thank Elinor Gregory for her creative insight and attention to detail.
We are indebted to the entire Cengage Learning team that helped us through this
revision. In particular we would like to acknowledge Andy Trus, Spencer Arritt,
Abby DeVeuve, Amanda Rose, and Adrian Daniel. Special thanks are due to Charles
and Corrinne Brase, who trusted us with this revision of their book!
xiv Preface
About the Authors

Charles Brase had more than 30 years of full-time teaching experience in math-
ematics and statistics. He taught at the University of Hawaii, Manoa Campus, for
several years and at Regis University in Denver, Colorado, for more than 28 years.
Charles received the Excellence in Teaching award from the University of Hawaii
and the Faculty Member of the Year award from Regis University on two occa-
sions. He earned degrees from the University of Colorado, Boulder, and has a Ph.D.
in Mathematics, an M.A. in Mathematics, and a B.A. in Physics. Charles worked
on a combined 20 editions of Understandable Statistics and Understanding Basic
Statistics before his passing in 2017.
Corrinne Pellillo Brase has taught at Hawaii Pacific College, Honolulu Community
College, and Arapahoe Community College in Littleton, Colorado. She was also
involved in the mathematics component of an equal opportunity program at the
University of Colorado. Corrinne received the Faculty of the Year award from
Arapahoe Community College. She earned degrees from the University of Colorado,
Boulder, and has an M.A. and B.A. in Mathematics.
Jason Dolor has more than 16 years of teaching experience in Mathematics and
Statistics. He briefly taught at the University of Guam and is currently a teacher and
researcher at Portland State University and University of Portland, where he has been
for the last 15 years. Jason has publications in research journals and has present-
ed at education conferences on his work in statistical thinking, teacher knowledge,
educational technology, curriculum development, and assessment. Jason earned his
B.S. in Computer Science from the University of Portland, Graduate Certificate in
Applied Statistics, M.S. in Mathematics, and a Ph.D. in Mathematics Education from
Portland State University.
James Seibert has more than 20 years of full-time teaching experience in Mathematics
and Statistics. He taught briefly at Colorado State University and Willamette
University, and currently teaches at Regis University in Denver, Colorado, where
he has been for the last 21 years. James was mentored early in his career at Regis
by Charles Brase, and remained friends with both Charles and Corrinne Brase ever
since. James earned his B.A. in Mathematics with minors in Physics and Philosophy
from Linfield College, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in Mathematics from Colorado State
University.
Critical Thinking xv
Critical Thinking
Students need to develop critical thinking skills in order to understand and evaluate the limitations of
statistical methods. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods makes students aware of method
46 Chapter 2appropriateness,
OrgaNIzINg DaTaassumptions, biases, and justifiable conclusions.
CRITICAL ◀ UPDATED! Critical

THINKING As researchers, it is important to consider the number of classes when generating
a histogram since it will help determine how the data is presented. When Thinking Boxes
producing a histogram, it is considered good practice that the graph is presented
Critical thinking is an important
in such a way that the reader is able to get a clear understanding of the data.
Using a small number of classes may cause information to be hidden within skill for students to develop in
particular bars. Too many classes may result in a histogram that could potentially order to avoid reaching misleading
overwhelm a reader. This activity will have you understand how to determine the conclusions. The Critical Thinking
appropriate number of classes for a specific data set. feature gives students the oppor-
Use Simulation 2.1: How the Number of Intervals Affects a HistogramSection to tunity to
3.2 Measures of Variation explore specific concepts
109
answer the questions below. (The simulation is also available on the Resources by engaging them in activities and
6. tab Computation:
Basic in WebAssign).Range, Standard Deviation (b) Why do you expect the difference in standarddiscussion to help them internal-
Consider thesee
You data set
a histogram showing body temperature from a datadeviations
set of 100between data sets (i) and (ii) izetothe
be topics and prepare them to
adults. greater
thethan the difference in standard deviations
2 3Below 4 the5 histogram
6 is a slider that you can use to determine num- anticipate issues that might arise.
between data sets (ii) and (iii)? Hint: Consider how
ber of classes (i.e., bins) which will dynamically modify the histogram. Using the
(a) Find the range. much the data in the respective sets differ from the
(b)slider, generate
Use the defining histograms
formula towith different
compute numbers of classes andmean.
the sample observe how
the graphsdeviation
standard change. After
s. you have had a chance to204 generateChapter
different5 histograms,
ThE BINOmIal PrOBaBIlITy DISTrIBuTION aND rElaTED TOPICS
(c)consider
Use the the following
defining questions:
formula to compute the 13. Critical Thinking: Data Transformation In this
population
1. What standard
did you deviation problem,
s . some advantages/disadvantages
notice are we explore
when generat-the effect on the standard
deviation of adding the same constant to each data
7. ing a histogram
Basic Computation: Range,with three classes?
Standard Deviation
2.theWhat SECTION
did you notice are some advantages/disadvantages
value in5.2
a dataPROBLEMS
set. Consider the data set 5, 9, 10, 11, 15.
Consider data set (a) Usewhen generat-formula, the computation
the defining
4 5 with 50 classes?
1 2 ing3 a histogram formula, or a calculator to compute s.
3. If you were to present this data to a group of medical (b)professionals,
Add 5 to eachwhatdata value to get the new data set 10,
(a) Find the range. Statistical
1. of classes Literacy
14,the
15, 16, What does
20. Compute s. the random variable for
do you think would be the optimal number for histogram?
(b) Use the defining formula to compute the sample a binomial
(c) experiment
Compare the of
results n
of trials
parts measure?
(a) and (b). In general,
standardExplain
deviationyour
s. reasoning. how do you think the standard deviation of a data
(c) Use the defining formula to compute the 2. Statistical Literacy
set changes What
if the samedoes it mean
constant to say
is added that the
to each
population standard deviation s . experiment and give the v
trials ofdata
an experiment
value? are independent?
8. Basic Computation: Range, Standard Deviation 9. Critical Thinking
Distribution 3. Statistical
Critical Literacy
Thinking:For Data a Transformation
binomial experiment, In this how
the data set Shapes
LOOKING FORWARD 14. office, 40%
Consider
many outcomes
problem, are possible
we explore the effect foroneach trial? What are
the standard
Relative-frequency distributions will be useful Histograms
23.5 31.2are 55.9 valuable 67.4and useful
71.3 tools.90.0If the raw datathe came from a random
deviation outcomes?
possible sample
of multiplying each data value in a data
when we study probability in Chapter 4. There of population values, the histogram constructed from the sample set by values
the same should haveConsider the data set 5, 9,
constant. sophomores, 15% are juni
we will see that the relative frequency of an (a) Find the range.
a distribution shape that is reasonably similar to that 4. of Statistical
the 10,
population.
11, 15. Literacy In a binomial experiment, is it
event can be used to estimate the probabil- (b) Use the defining formula to compute the sample
Several terms s. are commonly used to describe histograms (a) Use
possible forthe
and thedefining
their associated
probability formula, the computation
of success to change from
ity of an event if a random sample is large standard deviation
enough. The relative-frequency distribution (c) population distributions.
Use the defining formula to These
compute shapesthe are useful in one trialformula,
determining to the orcenter
thenext? a calculator
and to compute s.
Explain.
can then be interpreted as a probability spread of a distribution of data.s . (b) Multiply each data value by 5 to obtain the new (a)
Interpretation ▶
distribution, as we will see in Chapter 5. Such
population standard deviation
5. Interpretation
data set 25, Suppose
45, 50, 55, you75.are a hospital
Compute s. manager
distributions will form the basis of our work9. in Basic Computation: Range, Standard Deviation
and (c)haveCompare
been told the results
that there of parts
is no (a)need
and (b). In general,
to worry that
inferential statistics inStudents need to correctly
the later chapters. Consider(a)the interpret
data set results in howmonitoring
doeshistogram
the standard deviation change
Mound-shaped symmetric : This term refers to arespirator
mound-shaped equipment might failifbecause
each the
(b)
the context of a particular application.
in which The datagraphvalueisisfoldedmultiplied by a constant c?
11 12 13 both 20 sides are 30 (more or less) the sameprobability when the any one monitor will fail is only 0.01. 30
vertically down (d) You recorded the weekly distances you bicycled
Interpretation feature calls attention
(a) Find the range.
to the
thismiddle.
impor- Figure 2-8(a) shows a The typical mound-shaped
hospital
in miles hasand
sym-
20computed
such monitorsthe standardand they work
deviation
tant step. Interpretation metric
is stressed histogram.
in examples, independently.
(b) Use the defining formula to compute the sample to be s 5Should 3.1 miles. youYourbefriend
morewants concernedto about
(b) Uniform or rectangular: These terms refer to a histogram in which every
guided exercises, andstandard problem sets.
deviation s. the probability
know thethat standardexactly one ofinthe
deviation 20 monitors
kilometers. Do fails,
class has equal frequency. From one point of view, a uniform distribution is
(c) Use the defining formula to compute the or that at youleastneedone to redofails? all Explain.
the calculations? Given
symmetric with the added property that the bars are of the same height.
population standard deviation s . 1 mile < 1.6 kilometers , what is the standard
Figure 2-8(b) illustrates a typical histogram6.with aInterpretation uniform shape. From long experience a landlord setting?
deviation in kilometers?
10. Critical(c) Thinking
Skewed Forleft
a given data setright
or skewed in which: Thesenotterms
all refer to a histogram in which
data values are
knows that the probability an apartment in a complex 10. Critical Thinking: Simu
oneequal,
tail iswhich value
stretched outis longer
smaller,than s orthe
s ? other.15. The direction of skewnessOutliers is
Explain. willCritical
not be rentedThinking: is 0.10. There Oneare indicator of an
20 apartments in advertises that 90%
on the side of the longer tail where outliers of the data would be present.
outlier is that an observation is more than 2.5 standard
11. Critical Thinking So, if the longer two
Consider tail data
is onsetsthe with
left, equal
the complex,
we say the histogram ◀ Critical Thinking Problems
and the
is skewed
deviations from the to the
rental status of each apartment
mean. Consider the data value 80.
left. deviations.
Figure 2-8(c)The shows is independent ofanother
the
has status ofandthestandard
others. deviation
When a 5, surgeries.
sample standard first adata
typical histogram
set has 20 skewed to the
(a) If aleftdataandset mean 70
skewed to the right.
data values that are not all equal, and the second has 50
minimum is Critical
80 of a16suspect Thinking
apartment outlier? problems
units are provide
rented, the students
landlord with the (a)opportu-
data values that are not all equal. For which data set is can (b)
meet aall
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data tosettesthas meanexpenses. andWhich
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of the3,isapplication of statistical
deviation through 8
the difference between s and s greater? Explain. Hint: more relevant
ismethods to the
80 a suspect and landlord
outlier? in terms of beingofable
their interpretation their to results. digit 9
Consider the relationship s 5 s (n 2 1)/n . meet expenses: the probability that there are exactly
16. Basic Computation: Variance, Standard Deviation
12. Critical Thinking Each of the following data sets has unrented
fourGiven units or the probability that there are four
the sample data outcomes?
a mean of x 5 10 . or fewer unrented units? Explain. (b)
x: 23 17 15 30 25
(i) 8 9 10 11 12
7. Critical Thinking In an experiment, there (a) toxv
simulate the out
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content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage 0.50;variance
and the
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n 5 12 and r 5 3
n 5 12 and r 5 3 n! 12!
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xvi An alternative is to use the permutations key on a
Statistical Literacy
calculator.
Statistical Literacy
12 on the board of directors at Belford Community Hospital will be selected to go to a
3 are there? Section 4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events 159
We use the combinations rule, because order is not

n? important. The size of the board is n 5 12 and the size
Age of Customers
r? of each group going to the convention is r 5 3.
Type of Customer 20 to 39 40 to 59 More than 60 Row Total
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No language, including statistics, can be spoken

An alternative without
is to use the learning
combinations key onthe
a vocabulary. Understandable
Column Total
Statistics: Concepts and Methods introduces statistical terms with deliberate

calculator. care. table and what you have learned about probability in this
Using the contingency
section, consider the following questions. Make sure to provide evidence for your
response using probability.
◀ What Does (concept, method,

• Based on the results of the study, do you think it is more likely for customers in the
age of 20 to 39 to be the type that use a promotion?
What Do Counting Rules Tell Us?
statistical result) Tell Us?
• Do you think it would be reasonable for the company to claim that age of customers
Counting rules tell us the total number of outcomes created by combining ais associated to the type of customer?
• If you were working in advertising for the
This
of the informa- company gives
feature and wanted to attractsummary
a brief more cus-
sequence of events in specified ways. tomers between the age of 20 to 39, would you suggest using a promotion or not?
• The multiplication rule of counting tells us the total number of possible tion we obtain from the named concept, method, or
outcomes for a sequence of events. statistical result.
• Tree diagrams provide a visual display of all the resulting outcomes.
• The permutation rule tells us the total number of ways we can arrange
SECTION 4.2 PROBLEMS
in order n distinct objects into a group of size r.
• The combination rule tells us howData many setsways
are available
we can on form n distinct
the student companion site. SALT can be used to complete many of these questions.
objects into a group of size r, where1.theStatistical

order isLiteracy If two events are mutually
irrelevant. 8. Basic Computation: Multiplication Rule Given
exclusive, can they occur concurrently? Explain. P( A) 5 0.2 and P( B) 5 0.4:
(a) If A and B are independent events, compute
2. Statistical Literacy If two events A and B are
P(A and B).
independent and you know that P( A) 5 0.3, what is the
(b) If P( A | B) 5 0.1, compute P( A and B).
value of P( A | B)?
Cellphone Passcodes 3. Statistical Literacy Let A 5 the event someone is a
9. Basic Computation: Multiplication Rule Given
P( A) 5 0.7 and P( B) 5 0.8:
first-year student and B 5 the event that someone is
(a) If A and B are independent events, compute
a business major. What is the contextual difference
In the modern age of cellphones, it is very important to keep our information safe and secure P(A and B).
between P( A or B) and P( A and B)?
using a password so unwanted individuals cannot get access to our personal information. (b) If P( B | A) 5 0.9, compute P( A and B).
4. Statistical Literacy Let A = the event someone tested
Almost all cellphones have built-in passcode software thatpositive
requires foraa user
virus to
andenter atevent
B = the leastsomeone
a has
10. ◀ Statistical Literacy Problems
Basic Computations: Rules of Probability Given
P( A) 5 0.2, P( B) 5 0.5, P( A | B) 5 0.3:
four-digit number in order to access the information storedtheonvirus. What is the
the phone. contextual
In 2016, difference
there was a between
P( A | B) and P( A and B)? Statistical
(a) Compute P( A andLiteracy
B). problems test student under-
famous federal case between the FBI and Apple in which federal agents needed access to the (b) Compute P( A or B).
5. Statistical Literacy Suppose that A and B are
11.
standing of terminology, statistical
Basic Computation: Rules of Probability Given
methods, and
phone of a murder suspect, but were unable to crack the code on the iPhone.
complementary events This lead
and you to athat
know lotP( A) 5 0.4,
P( A )the appropriate
5 0.8,
c
P( B) 5 0.3, P( Bconditions
| A) 5 0.2: for use of the differ-
of questions about the laws related to protecting the privacy
what ofiscitizens
the valueand
of Phow
( B)? the govern-
(a) Compute P( A and B).
ment can access personal information. Using your knowledge
6. BasicofComputation:
counting, consider
AdditiontheRulefollow-
Given
ent processes.
(b) Compute P( A or B)
P ( A) 5 0.3 and P ( B) 5 0.4:
ing scenarios on how we think about passcodes on cellphones.
(a) If A and B are mutually exclusive events, compute
12. Critical Thinking Blake is making up questions
for a small quiz on probability. They assign these
• If you were to set up a 4-digit passcode on a new cell phone, P( how
A or Bmany
). are possible? probabilities: P( A) 5 0.3, P( B) 5 0.3,
(b) If P( A and B) 5 0.1, compute P( A or B).
How about a 5-digit passcode? 6-digit passcode? P( A and B) 5 0.4. What is wrong with these
7. Basic Computation: Addition(continued Rule Given) probability assignments?
P ( A) 5 0.7 and P ( B) 5 0.4:
13. Critical Thinking Milo made up another question for
(a) Can events A and B be mutually exclusive?
a small quiz. He assigns the probabilities P( A) 5 0.6,
Explain.
P( B) 5 0.7, P( A | B) 5 0.1 and asks for the probability
(b) If P( A and B) 5 0.2, compute P( A or B).
P( A or B). What is wrong with the probability
assignments?
Chapter Review 79
12/22/21 3:31 PM
Linking Concepts:
LINKING CONCEPTS: WRITING PROJECTS
Writing Projects ▶
19176_ch04_hr_132-181.indd 159 12/22/21 3:30 PM
Discuss each of the following topics in class or review the topics on your own. Then write a brief but complete essay in which
Much of statistical literacy is the ability you summarize the main points. Please include formulas and graphs as appropriate.
to communicate concepts effectively. The 1. In your own words, explain the differences among histograms, relative-frequency histograms, bar graphs, circle graphs,
time-series graphs, Pareto charts, and stem-and-leaf displays. If you have nominal data, which graphic displays might
Linking Concepts: Writing Projects feature be useful? What if you have ordinal, interval, or ratio data?
at the end of each chapter tests both 2. What do we mean when we say a histogram is skewed to the left? To the right? What is a bimodal histogram? Discuss
statistical literacy and critical thinking by the following statement: “A bimodal histogram usually results if we draw a sample from two populations at once.”
Suppose you took a sample of weights of college football players and with this sample you included weights of
asking the student to express their under- cheerleaders. Do you think a histogram made from the combined weights would be bimodal? Explain.
standing in words. 3. Discuss the statement that stem-and-leaf displays are quick and easy to construct. How can we use a stem-and-leaf
display to make the construction of a frequency table easier? How does a stem-and-leaf display help you spot extreme
values quickly?
4. Go to the library and pick up a current issue of The Wall Street Journal, Newsweek, Time, USA Today, or other news
medium. Examine each newspaper or magazine for graphs of the types discussed in this chapter. List the variables used,
method of data collection, and general types of conclusions drawn from the graphs. Another source for information is
the Internet. Explore several web sites, and categorize the graphs you find as you did for the print media.
xvi
population standard deviation s . data value?
8. Basic Computation: Range, Standard Deviation
14. Critical Thinking: Data Transformation In
Consider the data set
problem, we explore
Statistical the effect on
Literacy the standard
xvii
23.5 31.2 55.9 67.4 71.3 90.0 deviation of multiplying each data value in a d
set by the same constant. Consider the data se
(a) Find the range.
10, 11, 15.
(b) Use the defining formula to compute the sample
(a) Use the defining formula, the computation
standard deviation s.
formula, or a calculator to compute s.
(c) Use the defining formula to compute the
(b) Multiply each data value by 5 to obtain the
population standard deviation s .
data set 25, 45, 50, 55, 75. Compute s.
9. Basic Computation: Range, Standard Deviation (c) ◀ Basic Computation
Consider the data set Problems
how does the standard deviation change if
data value is multiplied by a constant c?
11 12 13 20 30 These problems focus student
(d) You recorded the weekly
attention on relevant distances you bic
formulas,
(a) Find the range. inrequirements,
miles and computed the standard deviat
and computational
(b) Use the defining formula to compute the sample toprocedures.
be s 5 3.1After
miles.
practicing these wants to
Your friend
standard deviation s. know
skills,the standard
students deviation
are more in kilometers
confident
(c) Use the defining formula to compute the you needapproach
as they to redo real-world
all the calculations?
appli- Give
population standard deviation s . mile <More
1cations. 1.6 Basic Computation
kilometers , what is the stand
problems have
deviation been added to most
in kilometers?
10. Critical Thinking For a given data set in which not all sections.
data values are equal, which value is smaller, s or s ? 15. Critical Thinking: Outliers One indicator of
Explain. outlier is that an observation is more than 2.5
11. Critical Thinking Consider two data sets with equal deviations from the mean. Consider the data v
sample standard deviations. The first data set has 20 (a) If a data set has mean 70 and standard dev
data values that are not all equal, and the second has 50 is 80 a suspect outlier?
data values that are not all equal. For which data set is (b) If a data set has mean 70 and standard dev
the difference between s and s greater? Explain. Hint: is 80 a suspect outlier?
Consider the relationship s 5 s (n 2 1)/n .
16. Basic Computation: Variance, Standard De
12. Critical Thinking Each of the following data sets has Given the sample data
a mean of x 5 10 .
x: 23 17 15 30 25
(i) 8 9 10 11 12
(ii) 7 9 10 11 13 (a) Find the range.
(iii) 7 8 10 12 13 (b) Verify that Sx 5 110 and Sx 2 5 2568 .
(a) Without doing any computations, order the data (c) Use the results of part (b) and appropriate
sets according to increasing value of standard computation formulas to compute the sam
deviations. variance s 2 and sample standard deviation
19176_ch03_hr_084-131.indd 109
xvii
4
xviii Direction and Purpose
Direction and Purpose

Elementary
Probability Theory
Real knowledge is delivered through direction, not just facts. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and
Methods ensures the student knows what is being covered and why at every step along the way to statis-
tical literacy.
UPDATED! Chapter
Preview Questions ▶
Preview Questions at the begin-
ning of each chapter give the
student a taste of what types
of questions can be answered
with an understanding of the
knowledge to come.
Standret/Shutterstock.com
4.1 What Is Probability?
4.2 Some Probability Rules—Compound Events
4.3 Trees and Counting Techniques
PREVIEW QUESTIONS
How can we use probability to analyze events in life that are uncertain? (SECTION 4.1)
What are the basic definitions and rules of probability? (SECTION 4.2)
What are counting techniques, trees, permutations, and combinations? (SECTION 4.3)
FOCUS PROBLEM
Say It with Pictures
132presents a number of guidelines for producing
Edward R. Tufte, in his book The Visual Display of Quantitative Information,
good graphics. According to the criteria, a graphical display should
• show the data;
• induce the viewer to think about the substance of the graphic rather than the methodology, the design, the technology,
or other production devices;
• avoid distorting what the data have to say.
Tufte includes a graphic that appeared in a well-known newspaper in his book that violates some of the criteria. Figure 2-1(a)
19176_ch04_hr_132-181.indd 132 12/22/21 3:29 PM
shows another problematic graph that was originally posted on the Georgia Department of Public Health web site in 2020
during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. The graphic was meant to represent the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases
in the top five counties in Georgia over a 15-day span. Several critics and news sites suggested that the graph was misleading.
As a result,
38 theChapter
graph 2was quickly removed
OrgaNIzINg DaTa and replaced with a corrected graph, Figure 2-1(b).
◀ Chapter Focus Problems
FIGURE 2-1
(a)
150 Focus Problems introduce chapter concepts in real-world
contexts and highlight questions students will be able to
100 answer after completing the chapter. Focus Problems are in-
corporated into the end of section exercises, giving students
50
an opportunity to test their understanding.
0
28Apr2020 29Apr2020 30Apr2020 06May2020 02May2020 26Apr2020 08May2020
27Apr2020 01May2020 04May2020 05May2020 07May2020 03May2020 09May2020
County
Cobb DeKalb Fulton Gwinnett Hall
(b)
80
60
40
20
37
0
02May2020 04May2020 06May2020 08May2020 10May2020 12May2020 14May2020 16May2020
03May2020 05May2020 07May2020 09May2020 11May2020 13May2020 15May2020
County
Cobb DeKalb Fulton Gwinnett Hall
After completing this chapter, you will be able to answer the following questions:
19176_ch02_hr_036-083.indd 37 12/22/21 2:57 PM
(1) Look at the graph in Figure 2-1(a). What type of graph(s) does it closely
xviii resemble? Explain.

(2) What are some flaws and misleading elements found in Figure 2-1(a) that
were later corrected in Figure 2-1(b)?
(3) Critics noted that the two graphs presented two different narratives of the
COVID-19 cases in Georgia. If you were to describe to someone what you
think the differences are, what would you say to them?
(4) How would you have graphed the data to make it more readable for an
audience?
Copyright 2023 Cengage Learning. AllaRights
(5) Create new graphReserved.
of the dataMay
basednot be copied,
on your scanned,
changes and or duplicated,
summarize what in whole or in part. Due to electronic rights, some third party content may be suppressed from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
your graph is saying
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed contentabout the not
does data.materially affect the overall learning experience. Cengage Learning reserves the right to remove additional content at any time if subsequent rights restrictions require it.
nient notation to indicate the sum. Let x
notation Sx represents the sum of all given data values.
Direction and Purpose xix
symbol S means sum the following
Greek alphabet.
The symbol for the mean of a sample distribution of x
(read “x bar”). If your data comprise the entire population
134 Chapter 4 ElEmENTary PrObabIlITy ThEOry
Learning Objectives ▶
Learning Objectives identify SECTION 4.1 What Is Probability?
what students should be able LEARNING OBJECTIVES
to do after completing each
section.
PROCEDURE
• Assign probabilities to events in the real world.
• Explain how the law of large numbers relates to relative frequencies.
How to Find the Mean
• Apply basic rules of probability in everyday life.
• Explain the relationship between statistics and probability.
1. Compute Sx ; that is, find the sum of all the data v
We encounter statements given in terms of probability all the time. An excited sports
2. Divide the sum total by the number of data values
announcer claims that Sheila has a 90% chance of breaking the world record in the
upcoming 100-yard dash. Henry figures that if he guesses on a true–false question,
Sample statistic x Population parameter m
the probability of getting it right is 1/ 2. A pharmaceutical company claimed that their
new flu vaccine developed by their scientists has an efficacy rate of 0.91.
Sx Sx
When we use probability in a statement, we’re using a number between 0 and 1
x5
to indicate the likelihood of an event. m5
n N
Probability is a numerical measure between 0 and 1 that describes the likelihood
where n 5 number of data values in the sample
that an event will occur. Probabilities closer to 1 indicate that the event is more
likely to occur. Probabilities closer to 0 indicate that the event is less likely to occur.
N 5 number of data values in the population
P(A), read “P of A,” denotes the probability of event A.
If P(A) = 1, event A is certain to occur.
If P(A) = 0, event A is certain not to occur.
LOOKING FORWARD CALCULATOR
◀ NOTE It is very easy to compute the mean o
Looking Forward
It is important to know what probability statements mean and how to determine
This feature encourages
the probability students
of events, because theyto
canpay extratoattention
be used understandto concepts
events that
that involve
In our future work with inferential statistics, torsbewith
will a real-world.
revisited
uncertainty in the statistics mode,is also
in future chapters.
Probability youan place
importantthe
that m calculator
part of understanding in
we will use the mean x from a random sam-
then press the key for the mean. The key is usually designated
inferential statistics.
ple to estimate the population parameter m
(Chapter 7) or to make decisions regarding the PROBABILITY ASSIGNMENTS
value of m (Chapter 8). the1.value for m .
A probability assignment based on intuition incorporates past experience,
judgment, or opinion to estimate the likelihood of an event.
2. A probability assignment based on relative frequency uses the formula
f
Probability of event 5 relative frequency 5 . (1)
n
where f is the frequency of the event occurrence in a sample of n observations.
What Do Averages Tell Us?
3. A probability assignment based on equally likely outcomes uses the formula
Number of outcomes favorable to event
Probability of event 5 . (2)
An average provides a one-number summary of a data set.
Total number of outcomes
• The mode
EXAMPLE 1 Probability Assignment
Consider each of the following events, and determine how the probability is assigned.
(a) A sports announcer claims that Sheila has a 90% chance of breaking the world
LifetimeStock/Shutterstock.com
record in the 100-yard dash.

SOLUTION: This is an example of a probability based on intuition, because it
for categorical data.
is likely the sports announcer used information of Sheila’s past performace to
determine her chance of breaking the world record.
19176_ch04_hr_132-181.indd 134 12/22/21 3:2
xix
MinitabExpress Under the Statistics tab, click CDF/PDF from Probability
Distributions. Select cumulative or probability distribution function and fill in the
dialogue box.
xx Real-World Skills Conditional Probability

Recall from section 4.2 the formula for conditional probability
Real-World Skills
P( A and B)
P( A|B) 5 .
P ( B)
This rule can easily be applied to binomial distribution problems. For instance, in a
binomial distribution with n 5 6 and p 5 0.3, we can answer a question like: What
is the probability of two or more successes given that there is at least one success?
P(r $ 2 and r $ 1) P(r $ 2)
P(r $ 2 | r $ 1) 5 5 .
P(r $ 1) P(r $ 1)
Statistics is not done in a vacuum. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods gives students
Using technology or Table 3valu-
in Appendix II, we find that P (r $ 2) 5 0.579 and
able skills for the real world with technology instruction, genuine applications, Pactual
(r $ 1) 5data,
0.882 soand
that group
Sezer66/Shutterstock.com
0.579
62 projects.
Chapter 2 OrgaNIzINg DaTa P(r $ 2 | r $ 1) 5 5 0.656.
0.882
UPDATED! Viewpoint Boxes ▶

PROCEDURE
VIEWPOINT
How to Decide Which Type of Graph to Use Loot Boxes in Video Games
Viewpoints are activities that use data
Bar graphs fromfor quantitative or qualitative data. With qualitative
are useful Loot boxes are big business in the video game industry, accounting for about $30 billion in revenue annually. Loot boxes, pur-
actual research studies to help
data, students
the frequency or percentage of occurrence
chased canmoney,
in games for real be displayed. With collection of virtual items for use in the game. Many countries around the world
contain a random
understand how statistics isquantitative
applied in data,
thethe measurementhaveitself can this
declared be displayed,
to be a form as was doneoften
of gambling, in targeted at children, and imposed legislation to limit what video game com-
the bar graph showing life expectancy. Watch that the measurement scale is
real world. Links to Cengage’s Dataset Hub panies can do. At the very least, video games now need to publish the probabilities involved in order to be sold in many countries.
consistent or that a jump scale squiggle is used.
The FIFA series of games from Electronic Arts have a mode that allows players to build a soccer team by buying “card
and websites allow students to charts
Pareto get hands-on
identify the frequency of events or categories in decreasing
packs” that contain a random selection of player cards, featuring real-world soccer stars, with a range of in-game skill ratings.
with the data. order of frequency of occurrence.
It is possible to earn some card packs by completing challenges in the game, but to get access to the best cards FIFA players
Circle graphs display how a total is dispersed into several categories. The cir-
need to spend real money on card packs. The more expensive the card pack, the better the chances of getting a top rated
cle graph is very appropriate for qualitative data, or any data for which per-
centage of occurrence makes sense. player. However
Circle the most
graphs expensive
are most card pack
effective has only a 3.2% chance of getting a player in the top tier.
when
the number of categories or wedges • Ifiswe
10 buy 20 packs and count the number of top tier players we get, discuss whether this fits a binomial distribution. What
or fewer.
are n, pover
Time-series graphs display how data change and q?
time. It is best if the units of
• For
time are consistent in a given graph. We want to know:
instance, If you buy 20 taken
measurements of theseevery
packs, what is the probability of getting at least one top tier player? Discuss how
day should not be mixed on the sameyou couldwith
graph use SALT
datatotaken
compute
everythisweek.
probability.
For any graph: Provide a title, label• the
We axes,
want to know:
and How many
identify unitspacks must we buy in order to be 80% sure of getting at least one top tier player. Discuss
of measure.
As Edward Tufte suggests in his book howTheyou might
VisualuseDisplay
SALT to of
find this number. (This type of problem is called a quota problem, and will be discussed in the
Quantitative
Information, don’t let artwork or skewed perspective cloud the clarity of the
next section.)
information displayed.
WHAT DO GRAPHS TELL US?

19176_ch05_hr_182-227.indd 203 12/22/21 3:49 PM
Appropriate graphs provide a visual summary of data that tells us
• how data are distributed over several categories or data intervals;
• how data from two or more data sets compare;
• how data change over time.
>Tech Notes Bar graphs, circle graphs, and time-series graphs

◀ REVISED! Tech Notes
TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-Nspire (with TI-84Plus keypad) These only graph time series.
Place consecutive values 1 through the number of time segments in list L1 and corre-
Tech Notes give students helpful hints
sponding data in L2. Press Stat Plot and highlight an xy line plot. on using TI-84Plus and TI-Nspire
(with TI-84Plus keypad) and TI-83Plus
Excel First enter the data into the spreadsheet. Then click the Insert Tab and select
the type of chart you want to create. A variety of bar graphs, pie charts, and line calculators, Microsoft Excel, SALT,
graphs that can be used as time-series graphs are available. Use the Design Tab and Minitab, and Minitab Express to solve
+ symbol to the right of the graph to access options such as title, axis labels, etc. for a problem.
your chart. Right clicking the graph or a bar provides other options. The Format Tab
gives you additional design choices.
Minitab/Minitab Express Use the menu selection Graph. Select the desired option
and follow the instructions in the dialogue boxes.
SALT After selecting the Dataset you wish to work with, go to the Charts and
Graphs page to select the preferred graph. After selecting the desired option, choose
the appropriate Variable to Graph from the drop-down menu in the Settings bar. If
you wish to categorize using a variable included in the data set, choose the appropri-
ate Group Variable from the drop-down menu in the Settings bar.
ch02_hr_036-083.indd 62 12/22/21 2:58 PM
xx
Real-World Skills xxi
◀ Using Technology
> USING TECHNOLOGY Further technology instruction

is available at the end of each
Demonstration of the Law of Large Numbers Results of Tossing One Die 50,000 Times
chapter in the Using Technology
Computers can be used to simulate experiments. With pack- Number of Relative section. Problems are presented
ages such as Excel, Minitab, and SPSS, programs using ran- Outcome Occurrences Frequency
with real-world data from a variety
dom-number generators can be designed (see the Technology 8528 0.17056
Guide) to simulate activities such as tossing a die. 8354 0.16708
of disciplines that can be solved by
The following printouts show the results of the simula- 8246 0.16492 using TI-84Plus and TI-Nspire (with
tions for tossing a die 6, 500, 50, 000, 500, 000, and 1, 000, 000
times. Notice how the relative frequencies of the outcomes
8414 0.16828 TI-84Plus keypad) and TI-83Plus
8178 0.16356
approach the theoretical probabilities of 1/ 6 or 0.16667 for
8280 0.16560
calculators, Microsoft Excel, SALT,
each outcome. Consider the following questions based on
the simulated data shown below: Minitab, and Minitab Express.
• Explain how the result of the simulated data is illustrating Results of Tossing One Die 500,000 Times
the law of large numbers. Number of Relative
• Do you expect the same results every time the simulation Outcome Occurrences Frequency
is done? Explain. 83644 0.16729
• Suppose someone gave you a weighted die. Explain how 83368 0.16674
the law or large numbers can help you determine the 83398 0.16680
probability of the die?
83095 0.16619
Results of Tossing One Die 6 Times 83268 0.16654
Number of Relative 83227 0.16645

Outcome Occurrences Frequency
Results of Tossing One Die 1,000,000 Times
0 0.00000
1 0.16667
Number of Relative
2 0.33333
166643 0.16664
0 0.00000
166168 0.16617
1 0.16667
167391 0.16739
2 0.33333
165790 0.16579
Results of Tossing One Die 500 Times 167243 0.16724
Number of Relative 166765 0.16677

87 0.17400
83 0.16600
91 0.18200
69 0.13800 Chapter Review 81
87 0.17400
83 0.16600
Minitab Express Select the GRAPHS tab, choose Specific instructions for setting class boundaries (cutpoints)
Histogram, and select Simple. Fill in the dialogue box. You of a histogram are provided in the Technology Guide that
cannot set your own class boundaries. However, you can accompanies this text.
select the number of bars and whether the midpoints or class
SALTare▶labeled. To do this, click on the graph, then
boundaries SALT
on the SALT
circled plus sign Analysis
(Statistical and Select Binning.
by the graph. The SALT screenshot shows the default histogram created
Learning Tool) is integrated into for a dataset using the Histogram graph on the Charts and
many WebAssign problems to engage Graphs page. Under the Settings Panel, you are able to
students in analyzing, interpreting, graph the uploaded data by selecting the appropriate variable
180
and visualizing statistical procedures to graph using the drop down menu under the Variable to
to understand the meaning behind the Graph prompt. Under the Histogram Settings you can enter
the Bin/Class Width and Starting Point of your choice and
data. It is also included in the Tech
then click the button Recalculate Bins. This will generate
Notes with instructions, examples, and
19176_ch04_hr_132-181.indd 180 the necessary histogram based on your specifications. 12/22/21 3:32 PM
screenshots.
28
Frequency
24
20
16
SPSS 12
The SPSS screen shot shows the default histogram created 8
4
by the menu choices Analyze ➤ Descriptive Statistics
0
➤ Frequencies. In the dialogue box, move the variable con- 340 360 380 400 420 440 460 480
taining the data into the variables window. Click Charts and Airfare
select Histograms. Click the Continue button and then the xxi
OK button. Data Science, Big Data, Statistics
Data science, big data, and statistics are interdisciplinary
In SPSS Student Version 17, there are a number of additional
ways to create
Copyrighthistograms andAllother
2023 Cengage Learning. graphs.
Rights Reserved. May These options
not be copied, or duplicated, infields
scanned,uti- whole or inof
part.study. There
Due to electronic issome
rights, notthirdyet
partyacontent
universally accepted
may be suppressed con-
from the eBook and/or eChapter(s).
sensus
Editorial review has deemed that any suppressed content does not materially affect the overall learning experience. defining
Cengage datathescience
Learning reserves andadditional
right to remove big data.
content atBoth
any timefields arerights
if subsequent rel-restrictions require it.
a coin a specified number of times and recording the Certified Public Accountant Examination (CPA exam).
outcomes. Records kept by the college of business from which
(a) What is the probability that the first heads will she graduated indicate that 83% of the students who
occur on the second trial? Does this probability graduated pass the CPA exam. Assume that the exam
change if we toss the coin three times? What if is changed each time it is given. Let n 5 1, 2, 3, …
xxii Real-World Skills we toss the coin four times? What probability represent the number of times a person takes the
distribution model do we use to compute these CPA exam until the first pass. (Assume the trials are
probabilities? independent.)
(b) What is the probability that the first heads will (a) What is the probability that Cathy passes the CPA
occur on the fourth trial? after the fourth trial? exam on the first try?
(b) What is the probability that Cathy passes the CPA
exam on the second or third try?
Data Highlights: Group

Projects ▶ DATA HIGHLIGHTS: GROUP PROJECTS
Break into small groups and discuss the following topics. Organize a brief outline in which you summarize the main points of
These activities help students your group discussion.
synthesize what they’ve learned by 1. Powerball! Imagine, you could win a jackpot worth at least $40 million. Some jackpots have been worth more than
discussing topics, analyzing data, $250 million! Powerball is a multistate lottery. To play Powerball, you purchase a $2 ticket. On the ticket you select five
distinct white balls (numbered 1 through 69) and then one red Powerball (numbered 1 through 26). The red Powerball
and interpreting results with their number may be any of the numbers 1 through 26, including any such numbers you selected for the white balls. Every
classmates. Wednesday and Saturday there is a drawing. If your chosen numbers match those drawn, you win! Figure 5-7 shows all
the prizes and the probability of winning each prize and specifies how many numbers on your ticket must match those
drawn to win the prize. For updated Powerball data, visit the Powerball web site.
FIGURE 5-7
P O W E R BALL
Match Approximate Probability Prize
5 white balls 1 Powerball 0.0000000034 Jackpot*

5 white balls 0.000000085 $1,000,000
4 white balls 1 Powerball 0.00000109 $10,000
4 white balls 0.000027 $100
3 white balls 1 Powerball 0.000069 $100
3 white balls 0.00172 $7
1 white ball 1 Powerball 0.01087 $4
Overall chance of winning 0.0402
*The Jackpot will be divided equally (if necessary) among multiple winners
and is paid in 30 annual installments or in a reduced lump sum.
19176_ch05_hr_182-227.indd 223 12/22/21 3:50 PM
xxii
SOLUTION: In this case, we are interested in combinations, rather than permutations,
because we are not looking to read the books in any particular order, rather we are
simply assigned 4 books to read from a list of 10. Using n 5 10 and r 5 4 , we have
Making the Jump xxiii
10! 10!
C10,4 5 5 5 210
Making the Jump

(10 2 4)!4! 6!4!
10 !
Notice the in the computation is reminiscent of the permutations rule. If we did
6!
care about the order in which the books are read, then we would end up with 5040
distinct sequences. However, since the order of the books is not important, we divide
by the 4 ! 5 24 in the denominator to remove the number of distinct groups in the
overall count. This leaves us with 210 different groups of 4 books that can be selected
Get to the “Aha!” moment faster. Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods provides the support
from the list of 10 where order does not matter. Most calculators use the combination
students need to get there through guidance and example.
key (often nCr or Cn ,r ) when computing the combinations rule.
◀ Procedures and
PROCEDURE Requirements
How to Determine the Number of Outcomes of an Experiment
1. If the experiment consists of a series of stages with various outcomes, This feature helps reinforce statisti-
use the multiplication rule of counting or a tree diagram. cal methods by stating the require-
ments and listing the steps for
2. If the outcomes consist of ordered subgroups of r items taken from a
group of n items, use the permutations rule, Pn ,r. completing statistical procedures.
n!
Pn ,r 5 (9)
(n 2 r )!
3. If the outcomes consist of nonordered subgroups of r items taken
from a group of n items, use the combinations rule, Cn ,r .
n!
C n ,r 5 (10)
r !(n 2 r )!
ED EXERCISE 12 Permutations and Combinations Section 3.1 Measures of Central Tendency: Mode, Median, and Mean 91
12 members.
PROCEDURE
officers—president, vice president, and treasurer—must be elected from among the members. How many different How to Compute a 5% Trimmed Mean
of officers are possible? We will view a slate of officers as a list of three people, with the president listed first, the
1. Order the data from smallest to largest.
president listed second, and the treasurer listed third. For instance, if Felix, Jamie, and Leia wish to be on a slate
2. Delete the bottom 5% of the data and the top 5% of the data. Note:
her, there are several different slates possible, depending on the person listed for each office. Not only are we asking
If the calculation of 5% of the number of data values does not produce
a whole number, round to the nearest integer.
e number of different groups of three names for a slate, we are also concerned about order. Continued
3. Compute the mean of the remaining 90% of the data.
UPDATED! Guided GUIDED EXERCISE 2 Mean and Trimmed Mean

Exercises ▶ Barron’s Profiles of American Colleges, 19th edition, lists average class size for introductory lecture courses at each of the profiled
institutions. A sample of 20 colleges and universities in California showed class sizes for introductory lecture courses to be
Guided Exercises walk through
14 20 20 20 20 2312/22/21 253:31 PM 30 30 30
statistical methods using real-world 35 35 35 40 40 42 50 50 80 80
contexts and provide worked-out solu-
tions showing students each step in (a) Compute a 5% trimmed mean for the The data are already ordered. Since 5% of 20 is 1, we
sample. eliminate one data value from the bottom of the list and
the procedure. one from the top. These values are circled in the data set.
Then we take the mean of the remaining 18 entries.
Sx 625
5% trimmed mean 5 5 < 34.7
n 18
(b) Find the median of the original data set. Note that the data are already ordered.
30 1 35
Median 5 5 32.5
2
(c) Find the median of the 5% trimmed data set. The median is still 32.5. Notice that trimming the same
Does the median change when you trim the number of entries from both ends leaves the middle
data? position of the data set unchanged.
>Tech Notes Minitab, Excel, SALT, and TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-Nspire calculators all provide the
mean and median of a data set. Minitab, Minitab Express, and Excel also provide
the mode. The TI-84Plus/TI-83Plus/TI-Nspire calculators sort data, so you can easily
scan the sorted data for the mode. Minitab provides the 5% trimmed mean, as does
Excel.
All this technology is a wonderful aid for analyzing data. However, a measure-
ment is worthless if you do not know what it represents or how a change in data values
might affect the measurement. The defining formulas and procedures for computing
the measures tell you a great deal about the measures. Even if you use a calculatorxxiii
to
evaluate all the statistical measures, pay attention to the information the formulas and
procedures give you about the components or features of the measurement.
Table of Prerequisite Material 1
Table of Prerequisite Material

Chapter Prerequisite Sections
1 Getting Started None
2 Organizing Data 1.1, 1.2
3 Averages and Variation 1.1, 1.2, 2.1
4 Elementary Probability Theory 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2
5 The Binomial Probability 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2
Distribution and Related Topics 4.3 useful but not essential
6 Normal Curves and Sampling
Distributions (omit 6.6) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1
(include 6.6) also 5.2, 5.3
7 Estimation
(omit 7.3 and parts of 7.4) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5
(include 7.3 and all of 7.4) also 5.2, 5.3, 6.6
8 Hypothesis Testing
(omit 8.3 and part of 8.5) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5
(include 8.3 and all of 8.5) also 5.2, 5.3, 6.6
9 Correlation and Regression
(9.1 and 9.2) 1.1, 1.2, 3.1, 3.2
(9.3 and 9.4) also 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 7.1, 7.2, 8.1, 8.2
10 Chi-Square and F Distributions
(omit 10.3) 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4,
(include 10.3) 6.5, 7.1 also 8.1
11 Nonparametric Statistics 1.1, 1.2, 2.1, 3.1, 3.2, 4.1, 4.2, 5.1, 6.1, 6.2, 6.3, 6.4, 6.5, 8.1, 8.3
1 Getting Started
Fer Gregory/Shutterstock.com
1.1 What Is Statistics?
1.2 Random Samples
1.3 Introduction to Experimental Design
PREVIEW QUESTIONS
Why is statistics important? (SECTION 1.1)
What is the nature of data? (SECTION 1.1)
How can you draw a random sample? (SECTION 1.2)
What are other sampling techniques? (SECTION 1.2)
How can you design ways to collect data? (SECTION 1.3)
FOCUS PROBLEM
Where Have All the Fireflies Gone?
A feature article in The Wall Street Journal discusses the disappearance of fireflies. In the article, Professor Sara Lewis of Tufts
University and other scholars express concern about the decline in the worldwide population of fireflies.
There are a number of possible explanations for the decline, including habitat reduction of woodlands, wetlands, and open
fields; pesticides; and pollution. Artificial nighttime lighting might interfere with the Morse-code-like mating ritual of the
fireflies. Some chemical companies pay a bounty for fireflies because the insects contain two rare chemicals used in medical
research and electronic detection systems used in spacecraft.
What does any of this have to do with statistics?
The truth, at this time, is that no one really knows (a) how much the world firefly population has declined or (b) how to
explain the decline. The population of all fireflies is simply too large to study in its entirety.
In any study of fireflies, we must rely on incomplete information from samples. Furthermore, from these samples we must
draw realistic conclusions that have statistical integrity. This is the kind of work that makes use of statistical methods to deter-
mine ways to collect, analyze, and investigate data.
Suppose you are conducting a study to compare firefly populations exposed to normal daylight/darkness conditions with
firefly populations exposed to continuous light (24 hours a day). You set up two firefly colonies in a laboratory environment.
The two colonies are identical except that one colony is exposed to normal daylight/darkness conditions and the other is
exposed to continuous light. Each colony is populated with the same number of mature fireflies. After 72 hours, you count the
number of living fireflies in each colony.
After completing this chapter, you will be able to answer the following questions.
(a) Is this an experiment or an observation study? Explain.
(b) Is there a control group? Is there a treatment group?
(c) What is the variable in this study?
(d) What is the level of measurement (nominal, interval, ordinal, or ratio) of the variable?
(See Problem 11 of the Chapter 1 Review Problems.)
4 Chapter 1 Getting Started
SECTION 1.1 What Is Statistics?

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Identify variables in a statistical study.
• Distinguish between quantitative and qualitative variables.
• Identify populations and samples.
• Distinguish between parameters and statistics.
• Determine the level of measurement.
• Compare descriptive and inferential statistics.
Introduction
Decision making is an important aspect of our lives. We make decisions based on the
information we have, our attitudes, and our values. Statistical methods help us exam-
ine information. Moreover, statistics can be used for making decisions when we are
faced with uncertainties. For instance, if we wish to estimate the proportion of people
who will have a severe reaction to a flu shot without giving the shot to everyone who
wants it, statistics provides appropriate methods. Statistical methods enable us to
look at information from a small collection of people or items and make inferences
about a larger collection of people or items.
Procedures for analyzing data, together with rules of inference, are central topics
in the study of statistics.
Statistics is the study of how to collect, organize, analyze, and interpret numerical
information from data.
The subject of statistics is multifaceted. The following definition of statistics is

found in the International Encyclopedia of Statistical Science, edited by Miodrag
Lovric.
Statistics is both the science of uncertainty and the technology of extracting infor-
mation from data.
The statistical procedures you will learn in this book should help you make
better decisions. You still have to interpret the statistics and make the decision, but
with properly applied statistics you can make an informed decision. Of course, even
a properly applied statistical procedure is no more accurate than the data, or facts,
on which it is based. Statistical results should be interpreted by one who understands
not only the methods, but also the subject matter to which they have been applied.
The general prerequisite for statistical decision making is the gathering of data.
First, we need to identify the individuals or objects to be included in the study and
the characteristics or features of the individuals that are of interest.
Individuals are the people or objects included in the study.

A variable is a characteristic of the individual to be measured or observed.
For instance, if we want to do a study about the people who have climbed
Mt. Everest, then the individuals in the study are all people who have actually made
it to the summit. One variable might be the height of such individuals. Other vari-
ables might be age, weight, gender, nationality, income, and so on. Regardless of the
Section 1.1 What Is Statistics? 5
variables we use, we would not include measurements or observations from people

who have not climbed the mountain.
The variables in a study may be quantitative or qualitative in nature.
A quantitative variable has a value or numerical measurement for which opera-

tions such as addition or averaging make sense. A qualitative variable describes
an individual by placing the individual into a category or group, such as left-handed
or right-handed.
For the Mt. Everest climbers, variables such as height, weight, age, or income
are quantitative variables. Qualitative variables involve nonnumerical observations
such as gender or nationality. Sometimes qualitative variables are referred to as cat-
egorical variables.
Another important issue regarding data is their source. Do the data comprise
information from all individuals of interest, or from just some of the individuals?
In population data, the data are from every individual of interest.

In sample data, the data are from only some of the individuals of interest.
It is important to know whether the data are population data or sample data. Data
from a specific population are fixed and complete. Data from a sample may vary
from sample to sample and are not complete.
A population parameter is a numerical measure that describes an aspect of a

population.
A sample statistic is a numerical measure that describes an aspect of a sample.
LOOKING FORWARD For instance, if we have data from all the individuals who have climbed Mt.
Everest, then we have population data. The proportion of left-handed climbers in
In later chapters we will use information based the population of all climbers who have conquered Mt. Everest is an example of a
on a sample and sample statistics to estimate
parameter.
population parameters (Chapter 7) or make
decisions about the value of population param- On the other hand, if our data come from just some of the climbers, we have
eters (Chapter 8). sample data. The proportion of left-handed climbers in the sample is an example of a
statistic. Note that different samples may have different values for the proportion of
left-handed climbers. One of the important features of sample statistics is that they
can vary from sample to sample, whereas population parameters are fixed for a given
population.
EXAMPLE 1 Using Basic Terminology

The Hawaii Department of Tropical Agriculture is conducting a study of ready-to-
harvest pineapples in an experimental field.
(a) The pineapples are the objects (individuals) of the study. If the researchers are
interested in the individual weights of pineapples in the field, then the variable
consists of weights. At this point, it is important to specify units of measure-
ment and degrees of accuracy of measurement. The weights could be measured
to the nearest ounce or gram. Weight is a quantitative variable because it is a
numerical measure. If weights of all the ready-to-harvest pineapples in the field
are included in the data, then we have a population. The average weight of all
ready-to-harvest pineapples in the field is a parameter.
(b) Suppose the researchers also want data on taste. A panel of tasters rates the pine-
Kristina Ismulyani/Shutterstock.com
apples according to the categories “poor,” “acceptable,” and “good.” Only some
of the pineapples are included in the taste test. In this case, the variable is taste.
This is a qualitative or categorical variable. Because only some of the pineap-
ples in the field are included in the study, we have a sample. The proportion of
pineapples in the sample with a taste rating of “good” is a statistic.
Throughout this text, you will encounter guided exercises embedded in the read-
ing material. These exercises are included to give you an opportunity to work imme-
diately with new ideas. The questions guide you through appropriate analysis. Cover
the answers on the right side (an index card will fit this purpose). After you have
thought about or written down your own response, check the answers. If there are
several parts to an exercise, check each part before you continue. You should be able
to answer most of these exercise questions, but don’t skip them—they are important.
GUIDED EXERCISE 1 Using Basic Terminology

How important is music education in school (K–12)? The Harris Poll did an online survey of 2286 adults (aged 18 and older)
within the United States. Among the many questions, the survey asked if the respondents agreed or disagreed with the statement,
“Learning and habits from music education equip people to be better team players in their careers.” In the most recent
survey, 71% of the study participants agreed with the statement.
(a) Identify the individuals of the study and the The individuals are the 2286 adults who participated
variable. in the online survey. The variable is the response agree
or disagree with the statement that music education
equips people to be better team players in their careers.
(b) Do the data comprise a sample? If so, what is the The data comprise a sample of the population of
underlying population? responses from all adults in the United States.
(c) Is the variable qualitative or quantitative? Qualitative—the categories are the two possible
responses, agree or disagree with the statement that
music education equips people to be better team play-
ers in their careers.
(d) Identify a quantitative variable that might be of Age or income might be of interest.
interest.
(e) Is the proportion of respondents in the sample Statistic—the proportion is computed from sample
who agree with the statement regarding music data.
education and effect on careers a statistic or a
parameter?
Levels of Measurement: Nominal, Ordinal, Interval, Ratio

We have categorized data as either qualitative or quantitative. Another way to classify
data is according to one of the four levels of measurement. These levels indicate the
type of arithmetic that is appropriate for the data, such as ordering, taking differ-
ences, or taking ratios.
LEVELS OF MEASUREMENT
The nominal level of measurement applies to data that consist of names, labels,
or categories. There are no implied criteria by which the data can be ordered from
smallest to largest.
The ordinal level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in order.
However, differences between data values either cannot be determined or are
meaningless.
The interval level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in order.
In addition, differences between data values are meaningful.
The ratio level of measurement applies to data that can be arranged in order. In
addition, both differences between data values and ratios of data values are mean-
ingful. Data at the ratio level have a true zero.
EXAMPLE 2 Levels of Measurement

Identify the type of data.
(a) Taos, Acoma, Zuni, and Cochiti are the names of four Native American pueblos
from the population of names of all Native American pueblos in Arizona and
New Mexico.
SOLUTION: These data are at the nominal level. Notice that these data values
Nick Fox/Shutterstock.com
are simply names. By looking at the name alone, we cannot determine if one
name is “greater than or less than” another. Any ordering of the names would be
numerically meaningless.
(b) In a high school graduating class of 319 students, Tatum ranked 25th, Nia ranked
19th, Elias ranked 10th, and Imani ranked 4th, where 1 is the highest rank.
SOLUTION: These data are at the ordinal level. Ordering the data clearly makes
sense. Elias ranked higher than Nia. Tatum had the lowest rank, and Imani the
highest. However, numerical differences in ranks do not have meaning. The dif-
ference between Nia’s and Tatum’s ranks is 6, and this is the same difference that
exists between Elias’s and Imani’s ranks. However, this difference doesn’t really
mean anything significant. For instance, if you looked at grade point average,
Elias and Imani may have had a large gap between their grade point averages,
whereas Nia and Tatum may have had closer grade point averages. In any rank-
ing system, it is only the relative standing that matters. Computed differences
between ranks are meaningless.
(c) Body temperatures (in degrees Celsius) of trout in the Yellowstone River.
SOLUTION: These data are at the interval level. We can certainly order the data,
and we can compute meaningful differences. However, for Celsius-scale tem-
© iStockphoto.com/tangledlines
peratures, there is not an inherent starting point. The value 08 C may seem to be a
starting point, but this value does not indicate the state of “no heat.” Furthermore,
it is not correct to say that 208 C is twice as hot as 108 C.
(d) Length of trout swimming in the Yellowstone River.
SOLUTION: These data are at the ratio level. An 18-inch trout is three times as
long as a 6-inch trout. Observe that we can divide 6 into 18 to determine a mean-
ingful ratio of trout lengths.
In summary, there are four levels of measurement. The nominal level is con-
sidered the lowest, and in ascending order we have the ordinal, interval, and ratio
levels. In general, calculations based on a particular level of measurement may not
be appropriate for a lower level.
PROCEDURE
How to Determine the Level of Measurement
The levels of measurement, listed from lowest to highest, are nominal,
ordinal, interval, and ratio. To determine the level of measurement of data,
state the highest level that can be justified for the entire collection of data.
Consider which calculations are suitable for the data.
Level of Measurement Suitable Calculation

Nominal We can put the data into categories.
Ordinal We can order the data from smallest to larg-
est or “worst” to “best.” Each data value
can be compared with another data value.
Interval We can order the data and also take the dif-
ferences between data values. At this level,
it makes sense to compare the differences
between data values. For instance, we can
say that one data value is 5 more than or 12
less than another data value.
Ratio We can order the data, take differences,
and also find the ratio between data values.
For instance, it makes sense to say that one
data value is twice as large as another.
What Does the Level of Measurement Tell Us?

The level of measurement tells us which arithmetic processes are appropriate for
the data. This is important because different statistical processes require various
kinds of arithmetic. In some instances all we need to do is count the number of
data that meet specified criteria. In such cases nominal (and higher) data levels
are all appropriate. In other cases we need to order the data, so nominal data
would not be suitable. Many other statistical processes require division, so data
need to be at the ratio level. Just keep the nature of the data in mind before
beginning statistical computations.
GUIDED EXERCISE 2 Levels of Measurement

The following describe different data associated with a state senator. For each data entry, indicate the corresponding level of
measurement.
(a) The senator’s name is Hollis Wilson. Nominal level
(b) The senator is 58 years old. Ratio level. Notice that age has a meaningful zero. It
makes sense to give age ratios. For instance, Hollis is
twice as old as someone who is 29.
Continued
Guided Exercise 2 continued
(c) The years in which the senator was elected to the Interval level. Dates can be ordered, and the differ-
Senate are 2000, 2006, and 2012. ence between dates has meaning. For instance, 2006
is 6 years later than 2000. However, ratios do not
make sense. The year 2000 is not twice as large as
the year 1000. In addition, the year 0 does not mean
“no time.”
(d) The senator’s total taxable income last year Ratio level. It makes sense to say that the senator’s
was $878,314. income is 10 times that of someone earning $87,831.
(e) The senator surveyed her constituents regarding Ordinal level. The choices can be ordered, but there
her proposed water protection bill. The choices for is no meaningful numerical difference between two
response were strong support, support, neutral, choices.
against, or strongly against.
(f) The senator’s marital status is “married.” Nominal level
(g) A leading news magazine claims the senator Ordinal level. Ranks can be ordered, but differences
is ranked seventh for her voting record on bills between ranks may vary in meaning.
regarding public education.
Reliable statistical conclusions require reliable data. This section has provided
some of the vocabulary used in discussing data. As you read a statistical study or
conduct one, pay attention to the nature of the data and the ways they were collected.
When you select a variable to measure, be sure to specify the process and require-
ments for measurement. For example, if the variable is the weight of ready-to-harvest
pineapples, specify the unit of weight, the accuracy of measurement, and maybe even
the particular scale to be used. If some weights are in ounces and others in grams, the
data are fairly useless.
Another concern is whether or not your measurement instrument truly measures
the variable. Just asking people if they know the geographic location of the island
nation of Fiji may not provide accurate results. The answers may reflect the fact that
the respondents want you to think they are knowledgeable. Asking people to locate
Fiji on a map may give more reliable results.
The level of measurement is also an issue. You can put numbers into a calculator
or computer and do all kinds of arithmetic. However, you need to judge whether the
operations are meaningful.
Keep in mind the fact that statistics from samples will vary from sample to
sample, but the parameter for a population is a fixed value that never changes (unless
the population changes). Every different sample of a given size from a population
will consist of different individual data values, and very likely have different sample
statistics. The ways in which sample statistics vary among different samples of the
same size will be the focus of our study from Section 6.4 on.
When working with sample data, carefully consider the population from which
they are drawn. Observations and analysis of the sample are only applicable to the
population from which the sample is drawn.
CRITICAL
THINKING Take a moment to discuss with your classmates the following questions.
• What level of measurement is a restaurant rating system, zero stars through
four stars?
• Do you think the difference between a 1-star restaurant and a 2-star
restaurant is the same as the difference between a 3-star restaurant and a
4-star restaurant in a meaningful way?
• Do you think that a 4-star restaurant is “twice as good” as a 2-star restau-
rant in a meaningful way?
Hopefully you agree that even though the difference between the numbers
1 and 2 is the same as the difference between the number 3 and 4, it’s not certain
that this difference in star ratings means the same thing. Similarly, even though
4 is twice as big as 2, we can’t conclude that 4-stars means twice as good as
2-stars. Those computations just aren’t meaningful.
This is an example of a common misuse of statistics: assigning numbers to
ordinal level data, and performing computations based on those numbers. We’ve
all seen surveys where we are asked to respond to a statement by choosing from
categories like the following.
1 = Strongly 2 = Disagree 3 = Neither Disagree 4 = Agree 5 = Strongly
Disagree nor Agree Agree
Here again, do you think the difference between responses 2 and 3 rep-
resents the same “emotional distance” as the difference between responses 4
and 5? It is very common to take such data and compute an average. How mean-
ingful do you think such an average would be?
The purpose of collecting and analyzing data is to obtain information. Statistical

methods provide us tools to obtain information from data. These methods break into
two branches.
Descriptive statistics involves methods of organizing, picturing, and summarizing

information from samples or populations.
Inferential statistics involves methods of using information from a sample to
draw conclusions regarding the population.
We will look at methods of descriptive statistics in Chapters 2, 3, and 9. These

methods may be applied to data from samples or populations.
Sometimes we do not have access to an entire population. At other times, the
difficulties or expense of working with the entire population is prohibitive. In such
cases, we will use inferential statistics together with probability. These are the topics
of Chapters 4 through 11.
SECTION 1.1 PROBLEMS

Data sets are available on the student companion site. SALT can be used to complete many of these questions.
1. Statistical Literacy In a statistical study what is the 9. Ecology: Wetlands Government agencies carefully
difference between an individual and a variable? monitor water quality and its effect on wetlands
(Reference: Environmental Protection Agency Wetland
2. Statistical Literacy Are data at the nominal level of
Report EPA 832-R-93-005). Of particular concern is
measurement quantitative or qualitative?
the concentration of nitrogen in water draining from
3. Statistical Literacy What is the difference between a fertilized lands. Too much nitrogen can kill fish and
parameter and a statistic? wildlife. Twenty-eight samples of water were taken
at random from a lake. The nitrogen concentration
4. Statistical Literacy For a set population, does a
(milligrams of nitrogen per liter of water) was
parameter ever change? If there are three different
determined for each sample.
samples of the same size from a set population, is it
(a) Identify the variable.
possible to get three different values for the same statistic?
(b) Is the variable quantitative or qualitative?
5. Critical Thinking Numbers are often assigned to data (c) What is the implied population?
that are categorical in nature.
10. Archaeology: Ireland The archaeological site of
(a) Consider these number assignments for category
Tara is more than 4000 years old. Tradition states
items describing electronic ways of expressing
that Tara was the seat of the high kings of Ireland.
personal opinions:
Because of its archaeological importance, Tara
1 = Twitter; 2 = email; 3 = text message; has received extensive study (Reference: Tara: An
4 = Facebook; 5 = blog Archaeological Survey by Conor Newman, Royal
Are these numerical assignments at the ordinal Irish Academy, Dublin). Suppose an archaeologist
data level or higher? Explain. wants to estimate the density of ferromagnetic
(b) Consider these number assignments for category artifacts in the Tara region. For this purpose, a
items describing usefulness of customer service: random sample of 55 plots, each of size 100 square
meters, is used. The number of ferromagnetic
1 = not helpful; 2 = somewhat helpful; artifacts for each plot is determined.
3 = very helpful; 4 = extremely helpful (a) Identify the variable.
Are these numerical assignments at the ordinal (b) Is the variable quantitative or qualitative?
data level? Explain. What about at the interval level (c) What is the implied population?
or higher? Explain.
11. Student Life: Levels of Measurement
6. Interpretation Lucy conducted a survey asking some Categorize these measurements associated with
of her friends to specify their favorite type of TV student life according to level: nominal, ordinal,
entertainment from the following list of choices: interval, or ratio.
(a) Length of time to complete an exam
sitcom; reality; documentary; drama; cartoon; other
(b) Time of first class
Do Lucy’s observations apply to all adults? Explain. (c) Major field of study
From the description of the survey group, can we draw (d) Course evaluation scale: poor, acceptable, good
any conclusions regarding age of participants, gender (e) Score on last exam (based on 100 possible
of participants, or education level of participants? points)
(f) Age of student
7. Marketing: Fast Food A national survey asked 1261
U.S. adult fast-food customers which meal (breakfast, 12. Business: Levels of Measurement Categorize
lunch, dinner, snack) they ordered. these measurements associated with a robotics
(a) Identify the variable. company according to level: nominal, ordinal, interval,
(b) Is the variable quantitative or qualitative? or ratio.
(c) What is the implied population? (a) Salesperson’s performance: below average,
average, above average
8. Advertising: Auto Mileage What is the average miles
(b) Price of company’s stock
per gallon (mpg) for all new hybrid small cars? Using
(c) Names of new products
Consumer Reports, a random sample of such vehicles
(d) Temperature (8 F) in CEO’s private office
gave an average of 35.7 mpg.
(e) Gross income for each of the past 5 years
(a) Identify the variable.
(f) Color of product packaging
(b) Is the variable quantitative or qualitative?
(c) What is the implied population?
13. Fishing: Levels of Measurement Categorize these 15. Critical Thinking You are interested in the weights of
measurements associated with fishing according to backpacks students carry to class and decide to conduct
level: nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio. a study using the backpacks carried by 30 students.
(a) Species of fish caught: perch, bass, pike, trout (a) Give some instructions for weighing the
(b) Cost of rod and reel backpacks. Include unit of measure, accuracy of
(c) Time of return home measure, and type of scale.
(d) Guidebook rating of fishing area: poor, fair, good (b) Do you think each student asked will allow you to
(e) Number of fish caught weigh his or her backpack?
(f) Temperature of water (c) Do you think telling students ahead of time that
you are going to weigh their backpacks will make
14. Education: Teacher Evaluation If you were going to
a difference in the weights?
apply statistical methods to analyze teacher evaluations,
which question form, A or B, would be better?
Form A: In your own words, tell how this teacher
compares with other teachers you have had.
Form B: Use the following scale to rank your teacher
as compared with other teachers you have had.
1 2 3 4 5
worst below average above best
average average
SECTION 1.2 Random Samples

LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Explain the importance of random samples.
• Construct a simple random sample using random numbers.
• Simulate a random process.
• Describe stratified sampling, cluster sampling, systematic sampling, multi-
stage sampling, and convenience sampling.
Simple Random Samples

Ranchers in the western United States have experienced trouble protecting flocks
of sheep from coyotes. Based on their experience with this sample of the coyote
Mircea Costina/Shutterstock.com
population, the ranchers in the past concluded that all coyotes are dangerous to their
flocks and should be eliminated! The ranchers used a special poison bait to get rid of
the coyotes. Not only was this poison distributed on ranch land, but with government
cooperation, it also was distributed widely on public lands.
The ranchers found that the results of the widespread poisoning were not very
beneficial. The sheep-eating coyotes continued to thrive while the general population
of coyotes and other predators declined. What was the problem? The sheep-eating
coyotes that the ranchers had observed were not a representative sample of all coy-
otes. Modern methods of predator control, however, target the sheep-eating coyotes.
To a certain extent, the new methods have come about through a closer examination
of the sampling techniques used.
In this section, we will examine several widely used sampling techniques. One
of the most important sampling techniques is a simple random sample.
Section 1.2 Random Samples 13
A simple random sample of n measurements from a population is a subset of the

population selected in such a manner that every sample of size n from the popula-
tion has an equal chance of being selected.
In a simple random sample, not only does every sample of the specified size
have an equal chance of being selected, but every individual of the population also
has an equal chance of being selected. However, the fact that each individual has an
equal chance of being selected does not necessarily imply a simple random sample.
Remember, for a simple random sample, every sample of the given size must also
have an equal chance of being selected.
Important Features of a Simple Random Sample

For a simple random sample
• Every sample of specified size n from the population has an equal chance
of being selected.
• No researcher bias occurs in the items selected for the sample.
• A random sample may not always reflect the diversity of the population.
For instance, from a population of 10 cats and 10 dogs, a random sample
of size 6 could consist of all cats.
GUIDED EXERCISE 3 Simple Random Sample

Is open space around metropolitan areas important? Players of the Colorado Lottery might think so, since some of the proceeds
of the game go to fund open space and outdoor recreational space. To play the game, you pay $1 and choose any six different
numbers from the group of numbers 1 through 42. If your group of six numbers matches the winning group of six numbers
selected by simple random sampling, then you are a winner of a grand prize of at least $1.5 million.
(a) Is the number 25 as likely to be selected in the Yes. Because the winning numbers constitute a simple
winning group of six numbers as the number 5? random sample, each number from 1 through 42 has
an equal chance of being selected.
(b) Could all the winning numbers be even? Yes, since six even numbers is one of the possible
groups of six numbers.
(c) Your friend always plays the numbers Yes. In a simple random sample, the listed group of six
1 2 3 4 5 6 numbers is as likely as any of the 5,245,786 possi-
ble groups of six numbers to be selected as the winner.
Could they ever win? (See Section 4.3 to learn how to compute the number
of possible groups of six numbers that can be selected
from 42 numbers.)
How do we get random samples? Suppose you need to know if the emission sys-
tems of the latest shipment of Toyotas satisfy pollution-control standards. You want
to pick a random sample of 30 cars from this shipment of 500 cars and test them. One
way to pick a random sample is to number the cars 1 through 500. Write these num-
bers on cards, mix up the cards, and then draw 30 numbers. The sample will consist
of the cars with the chosen numbers. If you mix the cards sufficiently, this procedure
produces a random sample.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
“The squire called her eighteen,” said Mr. Jones, giving a wink to
his wife, as much as to say, that’s about the right age for Stephen.
“I wonder if she is handsome,” said Susan, who was somewhat
vain of her own looks, and having been a sort of reigning belle in
Pond village for some time, felt a little alarm at the idea of a rival.
“I dare be bound she’s handsome,” said Mrs. Jones, “if she’s
sister to Miss Johnson; for where’ll you find a handsomer woman
than Miss Johnson, go the town through?”
After supper, Stephen went down to Mr. Robinson’s store, and
told the news to young Charles Robinson and all the young fellows
who were gathered there for a game at quoits and a ring at wrestling.
And Susan went directly over to Mr. Bean’s and told Patty, and Patty
went round to the Widow Davis’ and told Sally, and before nine
o’clock the matter was pretty well understood in about every house
in the village.
At the close of the fourth day, a little before sunset, a chaise was
seen to drive up to Squire Johnson’s door. Of course the eyes of the
whole village were turned in that direction. Sally Davis, who was just
coming in from milking, set her pail down on the grass by the side of
the road as soon as the chaise came in sight, and watched it till it
reached the squire’s door, and the gentleman and lady had got out
and gone into the house. Patty Bean was doing up the ironing that
afternoon, and she had just taken a hot iron from the fire as the
chaise passed the door, and she ran with it in her hand and stood on
the door steps till the whole ceremony of alighting, greeting, and
entering the house, was over. Old Mrs. Bean stood with her head out
of the window, her iron-bowed spectacles resting upon the top of her
forehead, her shriveled hand placed across her eyebrows to defend
her red eyes from the rays of the setting sun, and her skinny chin
protruding about three inches in advance of a couple of stubs of
teeth, which her open mouth exposed fairly to view.
“Seems to me they are dreadful loving,” said old Mrs. Bean, as
she saw Mrs. Johnson descend the steps and welcome her sister
with a kiss.
“La me, if there isn’t the squire kissing of her tu,” said Patty; “well,
I declare, I would a waited till I got into the house, I’ll die if I wouldn’t.
It looks so vulgar to be kissing afore folks, and out doors tu; I should
think Squire Johnson would be ashamed of himself.”
“Well, I shouldn’t,” said young John Bean, who came up at that
moment, and who had passed the chaise just as the young lady
alighted from it. “I shouldn’t be ashamed to kiss sich a pretty gal as
that any how; I’d kiss her wherever I could ketch her, if it was in the
meetin-house.”
“Why, is she handsome, Jack?” said Patty.
“Yes, she’s got the prettiest little puckery kind of a mouth I’ve
seen this six months. Her cheeks are red, and her eyes shine like
new buttons.”
“Well,” replied Patty, “if she’ll only take the shine off of Susan
Jones when she goes to meetin, Sunday, I sha’n’t care.”
While these observations were going on at old Mr. Bean’s,
Charles Robinson and a group of young fellows with him were
standing in front of Robinson’s store, a little farther down the road,
and watching the scene that was passing at Squire Johnson’s. They
witnessed the whole with becoming decorum, now and then making
a remark about the fine horse and the handsome chaise, till they saw
the tall squire bend his head down and give the young lady a kiss,
when they all burst out into a loud laugh. In a moment, being
conscious that their laugh must be heard and noticed at the squire’s,
they, in order to do away the impression it must necessarily make, at
once turned their heads the other way, and Charles Robinson, who
was quick at an expedient, knocked off the hat of the lad who was
standing next to him, and then they all laughed louder than before.
“Here comes Jack Bean,” said Charles, “now we shall hear
something about her, for Jack was coming by the squire’s when she
got out of the chaise. How does she look, Jack?”
“Handsome as a picter,” said Jack. “I haint seen a prettier gal
since last Thanksgiving Day, when Jane Ford was here to visit
Susan Jones.”
“Black eyes or blue?” said Charles.
“Blue,” said Jack, “but all-fired bright.”
“Tall or short?” said Stephen Jones, who was rather short himself,
and therefore felt a particular interest on that point.
“Rather short,” said Jack, “but straight and round as our young
colt.”
“Do you know what her name is?” said Charles.
“They called her Lucy when she got out of the chaise,” said Jack,
“and as Miss Johnson’s name was Brown before she was married, I
s’pose her name must be Lucy Brown.”
“Just such a name as I like,” said Charles Robinson; “Lucy Brown
sounds well. Now suppose, in order to get acquainted with her, we
all hands take a sail to-morrow night, about this time, on the pond,
and invite her to go with us.”
“Agreed,” said Stephen Jones. “Agreed,” said Jack Bean.
“Agreed,” said all hands.
The question then arose, who should carry the invitation to her;
and the young men being rather bashful on that score, it was finally
settled that Susan Jones should bear the invitation, and accompany
her to the boat, where they should all be in waiting to receive her.
The next day was a very long day, at least to most of the young men
of Pond village; and promptly, an hour before sunset, most of them
were assembled, with half a score of their sisters and female
cousins, by a little stone wharf on the margin of the pond, for the
proposed sail. All the girls in the village, of a suitable age, were
there, except Patty Bean. She had undergone a good deal of
fidgeting and fussing during the day, to prepare for the sail, but had
been disappointed. Her new bonnet was not done; and as for
wearing her old flap-sided bonnet, she declared she would not, if she
never went. Presently Susan Jones and Miss Lucy Brown were seen
coming down the road. In a moment all were quiet, the laugh and the
joke were hushed, and each one put on his best looks. When they
arrived, Susan went through the ceremony of introducing Miss
Brown to each of the ladies and gentlemen present.
“But how in the world are you going to sail?” said Miss Brown,
“for there isn’t a breath of wind; and I don’t see any sail-boat,
neither.”
“Oh, the less wind we have, the better, when we sail here,” said
Charles Robinson; “and there is our sail-boat,” pointing to a flat-
bottomed scow-boat, some twenty feet long by ten wide.
“We don’t use no sails,” said Jack Bean; “sometimes, when the
wind is fair, we put up a bush to help pull along a little, and when
’tisn’t, we row.”
The party were soon embarked on board the scow, and a couple
of oars were set in motion, and they glided slowly and pleasantly
over as lovely a sheet of water as ever glowed in the sunsetting ray.
In one hour’s time, the whole party felt perfectly acquainted with Miss
Lucy Brown. She had talked in the most lively and fascinating
manner; she had told stories and sung songs. Among others, she
had given Moore’s boat song, with the sweetest possible effect; and
by the time they returned to the landing, it would hardly be too much
to say that half the young men in the party were decidedly in love
with her.
A stern regard to truth requires a remark to be made here, not
altogether favorable to Susan Jones, which is the more to be
regretted, as she was in the main an excellent hearted girl, and
highly esteemed by the whole village. It was observed that as the
company grew more and more pleased with Miss Lucy Brown,
Susan Jones was less and less animated, till at last she became
quite reserved, and apparently sad. She, however, on landing,
treated Miss Brown with respectful attention, accompanied her home
to Squire Johnson’s door, and cordially bade her good night.
The casual glimpses which the young men of Pond village had of
Miss Brown during the remainder of the week, as she occasionally
stood at the door, or looked out at the window, or once or twice when
she walked out with Susan Jones, and the fair view they all had of
her at meeting on the Sabbath, served but to increase their
admiration, and to render her more and more an object of attraction.
She was regarded by all as a prize, and several of them were
already planning what steps it was best to take in order to win her.
The two most prominent candidates, however, for Miss Brown’s
favor, were Charles Robinson and Stephen Jones. Their position and
standing among the young men of the village seemed to put all
others in the back ground. Charles, whose father was wealthy, had
every advantage which money could procure. But Stephen, though
poor, had decidedly the advantage over Charles in personal
recommendations. He had more talent, was more sprightly and
intelligent, and more pleasing in his address. From the evening of
the sail on the pond, they had both watched every movement of Miss
Brown with the most intense interest; and, as nothing can deceive a
lover, each had, with an interest no less intense, watched every
movement of the other. They had ceased to speak to each other
about her, and if her name was mentioned in their presence, both
were always observed to color.
The second week after her arrival, through the influence of Squire
Johnson, the district school was offered to Miss Brown on the other
side of the pond, which offer was accepted, and she went
immediately to take charge of it. This announcement at first threw
something of a damper upon the spirits of the young people of Pond
village. But when it was understood the school would continue but a
few weeks, and being but a mile and a half distant, Miss Brown
would come home every Saturday afternoon, and spend the
Sabbath, it was not very difficult to be reconciled to the temporary
arrangement. The week wore away heavily, especially to Charles
Robinson and Stephen Jones. They counted the days impatiently till
Saturday, and on Saturday they counted the long and lagging hours
till noon. They had both made up their minds that it would be
dangerous to wait longer, and they had both resolved not to let
another Sabbath pass without making direct proposals to Miss
Brown.
Stephen Jones was too early a riser for Charles Robinson, and,
in any enterprise where both were concerned, was pretty sure to
take the lead, except where money could carry the palm, and then,
of course, it was always borne away by Charles. As Miss Lucy had
been absent most of the week, and was to be at home that
afternoon, Charles Robinson had made an arrangement with his
mother and sisters to have a little tea party in the evening, for the
purpose of inviting Miss Brown; and then, of course, he should walk
home with her in the evening; and then, of course, would be a good
opportunity to break the ice, and make known to her his feelings and
wishes. Stephen Jones, however, was more prompt in his
movements. He had got wind of the proposed tea party, although
himself and sister, for obvious reasons, had not been invited, and he
resolved not to risk the arrival of Miss Brown and her visit to Mr.
Robinson’s, before he should see her. She would dismiss her school
at noon, and come the distance of a mile and a half round the pond
home. His mind was at once made up. He would go round and meet
her at the school-house, and accompany her on her walk. There, in
that winding road around those delightful waters, with the tall and
shady trees over head, and the wild grape-vines twining round their
trunks, and climbing to the branches, while the wild birds were
singing through the woods, and the wild ducks playing in the coves
along the shore, surely there, if any where in the world, could a man
bring his mind up to the point of speaking of love.
Accordingly, a little before noon, Stephen washed and brushed
himself up, and put on his Sunday clothes, and started on his
expedition. In order to avoid observation, he took a back route
across the field, intending to come into the road by the pond, a little
out of the village. As ill luck would have it, Charles Robinson had
been out in the same direction, and was returning with an armful of
green boughs and wild flowers, to ornament the parlor for the
evening. He saw Stephen, and noticed his dress, and the direction
he was going, and he at once smoked the whole business. His first
impulse was to rush upon him and collar him, and demand that he
should return back. But then he recollected that in the last scratch he
had with Stephen, two or three years before, he had a little the worst
of it, and he instinctively stood still while Stephen passed on without
seeing him. It flashed upon his mind at once that the question must
now be reduced to a game of speed. If he could by any means gain
the school-house first, and engage Miss Lucy to walk home with him,
he should consider himself safe. But if Stephen should reach the
school-house first, he should feel a good deal of uneasiness for the
consequences. Stephen was walking very leisurely, and unconscious
that he was in any danger of a competitor on the course, and it was
important that his suspicions should not be awakened. Charles,
therefore, remained perfectly quiet till Stephen had got a little out of
hearing, and then he threw down his bushes and flowers, and ran to
the wharf below the store with his utmost speed. He had one
advantage over Stephen. He was ready at a moment’s warning to
start on an expedition of this kind, for Sunday clothes were an every-
day affair with him. There was a light canoe, belonging to his father,
lying at the wharf, and a couple of stout boys were there fishing.
Charles hailed them, and told them if they would row him across the
pond as quick as they possibly could, he would give them a quarter
of a dollar a piece. This, in their view, was a splendid offer for their
services, and they jumped on board with alacrity and manned the
oars. Charles took a paddle, and stood in the stern to steer the boat,
and help propel her ahead. The distance by water was a little less
than by land, and although Stephen had considerably the start of
him, he believed he should be able to reach the school-house first,
especially if Stephen should not see him and quicken his pace. In
one minute after he arrived at the wharf, the boat was under full way.
The boys laid down to the oars with right good will, and Charles put
out all his strength upon the paddle. They were shooting over the
water twice as fast as a man could walk, and Charles already felt
sure of the victory. But when they had gone about half a mile, they
came in the range of a little opening in the trees on the shore, where
the road was exposed to view, and there, at that critical moment,
was Stephen pursuing his easy walk. Charles’ heart was in his
mouth. Still it was possible Stephen might not see them, for he had
not yet looked round. Lest the sound of the oars might attract his
attention, Charles had instantly, on coming in sight, ordered the boys
to stop rowing, and he grasped his paddle with breathless anxiety,
and waited for Stephen again to disappear. But just as he was upon
the point of passing behind some trees, where the boat would be out
of his sight, Stephen turned his head and looked round. He stopped
short, turned square round, and stood for the space of a minute
looking steadily at the boat. Then lifting his hand, and shaking his fist
resolutely at Charles, as much as to say I understand you, he started
into a quick run.
“Now, boys,” said Charles, “buckle to your oars for your lives, and
if you get to the shore so I can reach the school-house before
Stephen does, I’ll give you half a dollar a piece.”
This of course added new life to the boys and increased speed to
the boat. Their little canoe flew over the water almost like a bird,
carrying a white bone in her mouth, and leaving a long ripple on the
glassy wave behind her. Charles’ hands trembled, but still he did
good execution with his paddle. Although Stephen upon the run was
a very different thing from Stephen at a slow walk, Charles still had
strong hopes of winning the race and gaining his point. He several
times caught glimpses of Stephen through the trees, and, as well as
he could judge, the boat had a little the best of it. But when they
came out into the last opening, where for a little way they had a fair
view of each other, Charles thought Stephen ran faster than ever;
and although he was now considerably nearer the school-house than
Stephen was, he still trembled for the result. They were now within
fifty rods of the shore, and Charles appealed again to the boys’ love
of money.
“Now,” said he, “we have not a minute to spare. If we gain the
point, I’ll give you a dollar apiece.”
The boys strained every nerve, and Charles’ paddle made the
water fly like the tail of a wounded shark. When within half a dozen
rods of the shore, Charles urged them again to spring with all their
might, and one of the boys making a desperate plunge upon his oar,
snapped it in two. The first pull of the other oar headed the boat from
land. Charles saw at once that the delay must be fatal, if he
depended on the boat to carry him ashore. The water was but three
feet deep, and the bottom was sandy. He sprung from the boat, and
rushed toward the shore as fast as he was able to press through the
water. He flew up the bank, and along the road, till he reached the
school-house. The door was open, but he could see no one within.
Several children were at play round the door, who, having seen
Charles approach with such haste, stood with mouths and eyes wide
open, looking at him.
“Where’s the schoolma’m?” said Charles, hastily, to one of the
largest boys.
“Why?” said the boy, opening his eyes still wider, “is any of the
folks dead?”
“You little rascal, I say, where’s the schoolma’m?”
“She jest went down that road,” said the boy, “two or three
minutes ago.”
“Was she alone?” said Charles.
“She started alone,” said the boy, “and a man met her out there a
little ways, and turned about and went with her.”
Charles felt that his cake was all dough again, and that he might
as well give it up for a bad job, and go home. Stephen Jones and
Lucy Brown walked very leisurely home through the woods, and
Charles and the boys went very leisurely in the boat across the
pond. They even stopped by the way, and caught a mess of fish,
since the boys had thrown their lines into the boat when they started.
And when they reached the wharf, Charles, in order to show that he
had been a fishing, took a large string of the fish in his hand, and
carried them up to the house. Miss Lucy Brown, on her way home
through the woods, had undoubtedly been informed of the proposed
tea-party for the evening, to which she was to be invited, and to
which Stephen Jones and Susan Jones were not invited; and when
Miss Lucy’s invitation came, she sent word back, that she was
engaged.
THE FAREWELL.
Farewell, farewell—O! ne’er from me
Till now that word hath hopeless passed;
But, sweet one, faltered forth to thee,
It seems this once as ’twere the last⁠—
The last that thou wilt ever hear
From him who knows thy worth too well;
I’ll stifle one relenting tear,
That mingles in this last farewell.
HARRY CAVENDISH.
———
BY THE AUTHOR OF “CRUISING IN THE LAST WAR,” “THE REEFER OF ’76,”
ETC.
———
CONCLUSION.
I was now alone in the world; I had neither ship, nor home; and
she I had loved was wedded to another. It is strange how
misanthropical a man becomes, after disappointment has soured his
disposition, and destroyed, one after another, the beautiful dreams of
his youth. When I sat down and thought of the hopes of my earlier
years, now gone forever; when I speculated upon my future
prospects; when I recalled to mind how few of the friends I had
begun life with remained, an indescribable sadness came over me,
and, had it not been for my manhood, I would have found a relief in
tears. My zest for society was gone. I cared little for the ordinary
business of life. I only longed for a fitting opportunity to re-enter the
service, and distinguish myself by some gallant deed, which I did not
care to survive, for even fame had become hateful to me, since it
reminded me how insufficient it was to win or retain the love of
woman. In a word, I had become a misanthrope, and was fast losing
all the energy of my character in sickly regrets over the past.
Of the St. Clairs I had not inquired since my return, and their
names, from motives of delicacy perhaps, were never mentioned in
my presence. Yet they occupied a large portion of my thoughts, and
often would I start, and my heart flutter, when, in the streets, I
fancied, for a moment, that I recognized the form of Annette. But a
nearer approach made evident my mistake, and dissipated my
embarrassment. Much, however, as I thought of her, I had never
inquired to whom she had been married; yet my curiosity on this
point continually gained strength; and when I had been a fortnight in
Newport without hearing any allusion to her, I began to wish that
some one would break the ominous silence which seemed to hang
around her and her family. Still I dared not trust myself to broach the
subject. I continued, therefore, ignorant of their present situation, and
of all that concerned them.
There is, not far from the town, and situated in one of the most
beautiful portions of the island, a favorite resort which has long been
known by the familiar and characteristic name of “The Glen.” The
spot is one where the deity of romance might sit enshrined. Here, on
a still summer night, we might, without much stretch of fancy, look for
fairies to come forth and gambol, or listen to the light music of airy
spirits hovering above us. The whole place reminds you of an
enchanted bower, and dull must be his heart who does not feel the
stirrings of the divinity within him as he gazes on the lovely scenery
around. He who can listen here unmoved to the low gurgle of the
brook, or the light rustle of the leaves in the summer wind, must be
formed of the coarsest clods of clay, nor boast one spark of our
immortal nature.
The glen was my favorite resort, and thither would I go and spend
whole afternoons, listening to the laughing prattle of the little river, or
striving to catch, in pauses of the breeze, the murmur of the
neighboring sea. A rude bench had been constructed under some
trees, in a partially open glade, at the lower extremity of the ravine,
and here I usually sat, indulging in those dreamy, half-sick reveries
which are characteristic of youth. The stream, which brawled down
the ravine, in a succession of rapids and cascades, here glided
smoothly along on a level bottom, its banks fringed with long grass
interspersed with wild roses, and its bed strewed with pebbles, round
and silvery, that glistened in the sunbeams, which, here and there,
struggled through the trees, and shimmered on the stream. Faint and
low came to the ear the sound of the mill, situated at the upper end
of the ravine; while occasionally a bird whistled on the stillness, or a
leaf floated lazily down into the river, and went on its way, a tiny bark.
The seclusion of my favorite retreat was often enlivened by the
appearance of strangers, but as they generally remained only a few
minutes, I had the spot, for most of the time, to myself. Here I
dreamed away the long summer afternoons, often lingering until the
moon had risen, to make the scene seem even more beautiful, under
her silvery light. I had no pleasure in any other spot. Perhaps it was
because I had once been here with Annette, when we were both
younger, and I, at least, happier; and I could remember plucking a
flower for her from a time-worn bush that still grew on the margin of
the stream. God knows how we love to haunt the spot made dear to
us by old and tender recollections!
I was sitting, one afternoon, on the rude bench I have spoken of,
listlessly casting pebbles into the river, when I heard the sound of
approaching voices, but I was so accustomed to the visits of
strangers, that I did not pause to look up. Directly the voices came
nearer, and suddenly a word was spoken that thrilled through every
nerve of my system. It was only a single word, but that voice!—
surely it could be none other than Annette’s. My sensations, at that
moment, I will not pretend to analyze. I longed to look up, and yet I
dared not. My heart fluttered wildly, and I could feel the blood rushing
in torrents to my face; but, if I had been called on at that instant to
speak, I could not have complied for worlds. Luckily the tree, under
whose shadow I sat, concealed me from the approaching visitors,
and I had thus time to rally my spirits ere the strangers came up. As
they drew near I recognized the voice of Mr. St. Clair, and then that
of Annette’s cousin Isabel, while there were one or two other
speakers who were strangers to me. Doubtless one of them was
Annette’s husband, and, as this thought flashed across me, I looked
up, impelled by an irresistible impulse. The party were now within
almost twenty yards, coming gaily down the glen. Foremost in the
group walked Isabel, leaning on the arm of a tall, gentlemanly
looking individual, and turning ever and anon around to Annette, who
followed immediately behind, at the side of her father. Another lady,
attended by a gentleman, made up the rest of the company. Where
could Annette’s husband be? was the question that occurred to me
—and who was the distinguished looking gentleman on whose arm
Isabel was so familiarly leaning? But my thoughts were cut short by
a conversation which now began, and of which, during a minute, I
was an unknown auditor—for my position still concealed me from the
party, and my surprise at first, and afterwards delicacy, prevented me
from appearing.
“Ah! Annette,” said Isabel, archly, turning around to her cousin,
“do you know this spot, but especially that rose-bush yonder?—here,
right beyond that old tree—you seem wonderfully ignorant all at
once! I wonder where the donor of that aforesaid rose-bud is now. I
would lay a guinea that it is yet in your possession, preserved in
some favorite book, pressed out between the leaves. Come, answer
frankly, is it not so, my sweet coz?”
I could hear no reply, if one was made, and immediately another
voice spoke. It was that of Isabel’s companion, coming to the aid of
Annette.
“You are too much given to believe that Annette follows your
example, Isabel—now do you turn penitent, and let me be father
confessor—how many rose-buds, ay! and for that matter, even
leaves, have you in your collection, presented to you by your humble
servant, before we had pity on each other, and were married? I
found a flower, last week, in a copy of Spenser, and, if I remember
aright, I was the donor of the trifle.”
“Oh! you betray yourself,” gaily retorted Isabel, “but men are
foolish—and of all foolish men I ever met with, a certain Albert
Marston was, before his marriage, the most foolish. I take credit to
myself,” she continued, in the same playful strain, “for having worked
such a reformation in him since that event. But this is not what we
were talking of—you wish to divert me from my purpose by this light
Cossack warfare—but it won’t do,” she continued, and I fancied she
stamped her foot prettily, as she was wont to do at Clairville Hall,
when she was disposed to have her way; “no—no—Annette must be
the one to turn penitent, and I will play father confessor. Say, now,
fair coz, was it not a certain fancy to see this same rose-bush, that
induced you to insist on coming here?”
During this conversation the parties had remained nearly
stationary at some distance from me. Strange suspicions began to
flash through my mind, as soon as Isabel commenced her banter;
and these suspicions had now been changed into a certainty.
Annette was still unmarried, and it was Isabel’s wedding at which I
had come so near being present, at Clairville Hall. Nor was this all. I
was still loved. Oh! the wild, the rapturous feelings of that moment. I
could with difficulty restrain myself from rising and rushing toward
them; but motives of delicacy forbade me thus to reveal that the
conversation had been overheard. And yet should I remain in my
present position, and play the listener still further? I knew not what to
do. All these considerations flashed through my mind in the space of
less than a minute, during which the party had been silent,
apparently enjoying Annette’s confusion.
“Come, not ready to answer yet?” began Isabel; “well, if you will
not, you shan’t have the rose from that bush, for which you’ve come.
Let us go back,” she said, playfully.
The whole party seemed to enter into the jest, and laughingly
retraced their steps. This afforded me the opportunity for which I
longed. Hastily rising from my seat, I glided unnoticed from tree to
tree, until I reached a copse on the left of the glen, and advancing up
the ravine, under cover of this screen, I re-entered the path at a bend
some distance above the St. Clairs. Here I listened for a moment,
and caught the sound of their approaching voices. Determining no
longer to be a listener to their conversation, I proceeded down the
glen, and, as I turned the corner, a few paces in advance, I came full
in sight of the approaching group. In an instant the gay laughing of
the party ceased, and I saw Annette shrink blushing behind her
father. Isabel was the first to speak. Darting forward, with that
frankness and gaiety which always characterized her, she grasped
my hand, and said⁠—
“You don’t know how happy we all are to see you. Where could
you have come from?—and how could you have made such a
mistake as to congratulate Annette, instead of me, on being married?
But come, I must surrender you to the others—I see they are dying
to speak to you. Uncle, Annette—how lucky it was that we came
here to-day!”
“My dear boy,” said Mr. St. Clair, warmly pressing my hand, “I
cannot tell how rejoiced I am to see you. We heard a rumor that you
were lost, and we all wept—Isabel for the first time for years. It was
but a few days since that we heard you were at Newport, and, as we
were coming hither, I hastened my journey, determined to search
you out. We are on our way there now, and only stopped here a few
minutes to relieve ourselves after a long ride. This day shall be
marked with a white stone. But here I have been keeping you from
speaking to Annette—we old men, you know, are apt to be
garrulous.”
My eyes, indeed, had been seeking Annette, who, still covered
with blushes, and unable to control her embarrassment, sought to
conceal them by keeping in the back ground. As for me, I had
become wonderfully self-possessed. I now advanced and took her
hand. It trembled in my own, and when I spoke, though she replied
faintly, she did not dare to look into my face, except for a moment,
after which her eyes again sought the ground in beautiful
embarrassment. My unexpected appearance, combined with her
cousin’s late raillery, covered her face with blushes, and, for some
time, she could not rally herself sufficient to participate in the
conversation.
What more have I to tell? I was now happy, and for my
misanthropy, it died with the cause that produced it. Mr. St. Clair said
that the wedding need not be delayed, and in less than a month I led
Annette to the altar. Years have flown since then, but I still enjoy
unalloyed felicity, and Annette seems to my eyes more beautiful than
ever. It only remains for me to bid my readers FAREWELL!
THE HOLYNIGHTS.
———
BY HENRY MORFORD.
———
Some say that ’gainst the time that season comes

Wherein our Savior’s birth is celebrated
The bird of dawning singeth all night long,
And then they say no sprite dares stir abroad,
The nights are wholesome then, no planets strike,
No fairy takes or witch hath power to charm,
So hallowed and so gracious is the time.
Hamlet.
Hushed be the voice of mirthfulness,

And stilled be the plaintive tones of care,
That from too many a heart recess
Go forth to float on the midnight air;
It is no time for the wild excess,
No time for the loose unbridled reign
That passion gives to her votaries
When they sever away the golden chain.
Stilled on the ears of the seraph choir

Let the lingering hymns of the season go,
As they sweep their hands o’er the golden wire
To the anthem of love and peace below;
And let us keep in a holy mood
The coming hours of that sacred time
When the word went forth for the hush of blood
And the passing knell for the soul of crime!
When the hosts of the upper region stirred
That another star came forth to shine,
And the rush of an angel’s wing was heard
O’er the moonlit plains of Palestine,
And a softer light o’er the earth was flung
And the pale stars waxed no longer dim,
And forth on a thousand harps outrung
The rising notes of the angels’ hymn.
The same bright stars that then looked down

With a guardian watch o’er hill and plain,
Unfading gems in the starry crown
Glittering on in the blue remain,
And the solemn awe that crept them round
As they watched their flocks that holy time,
An echo with us to-night has found
In the new-born light of another clime.
It has been felt this many a year,

The sacred spell of the season’s death,
And the brighter glow of the starry sphere
As it came that time with the angels’ breath,
For brighter yet the stars gleam out
As the noisome vapor shrinks away
From the open glade that it hung about
Darkened and damp this many a day.
List how the spirit-breathings come

Upon our ears from the voice sublime
Of him who ruled in the spirits’ home,
Who wrote and sang for the end of time!
Hark how he tells when the time is near,
The bird of the dawn sings all night long
And the fairy legions disappear
When he comes abroad with his matin song.
No spirits forth, nor the rank compound
That glows with the witches’ midnight toil,
No deeps of the forest-close resound
With the wizard shriek and the caldron boil.
No planets chill the warm heart’s blood
With the mockery of a demon fire,
No vapors veil with a sickly shroud
The moss-grown top of the old church spire,⁠—
For he who stood in that dreadful watch

On the gray rampart of Elsinore
Told how they ceased from their revel catch
And their reign at the Christmas time was o’er;
We feel it now, as he felt it then,
That the air is full of holiness,
And we need not forms from the earth again
Of the starry hosts to guard and bless.
Then stilled on the ears of the seraph choir

Let the lingering hymns of the season go,
As they sweep their hands o’er the golden wire
To the anthem of love and peace below;
And let us keep in a holy mood
The passing hours of that sacred time
When the word went forth for the hush of blood
And the passing knell for the soul of crime!
THE LADIES’ LIBRARY.
———
BY W. A. JONES.
———
That admirable manual of “les petites morales,” and even of

higher matters occasionally, the Spectator, contains a paper which
we hesitate not to accept as a just specimen of cotemporary satire
on female education; we refer to the catalogue of a Ladies’ Library.
This heterogeneous collection embraces heroical romances and
romancing histories, the ranting tragedies of the day, with the
libertine comedies of the same period. In a word, it leads us to infer
pretty plainly the insignificant pretensions the gentle women of
Queen Anne’s day could lay to any thing like refinement of
education, or even a correct propriety in dress and demeanor. Tell
me your company, and I will disclose your own character; speak that
I may know you, are trite maxims; but give me a list of your favorite
authors is by no means so common, though at least as true, a test.
The literary and indirectly the moral depravity of taste exhibited by
the women of that age, is easily accounted for, when we once learn
the fashionable authors and the indifferent countenance given to any
authors but those of the most frivolous description. The queen
herself was an illiterate woman, and we are told never once had the
curiosity to look into the classic productions of Pope. King William,
the preceding sovereign, was so ignorant of books and the literary
character, as to offer Swift, with whom he had been agreeably
prepossessed, the place of captain of a regiment of horse.
Indulging ourselves in a rapid transition, we pass from this era to
the epoch of Johnson and Burke, and Goldsmith and Sheridan, we
come to the reign of George III. Here we find the scene altered.
From the gay saloon we are dropped, as if by magic, into the library
or conversation room. We read not of balls, but of literary dinners
and æsthetic teas, and we meet for company, not thoughtless,

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Understandable Statistics.

Understandable Statistics 12th Edition Brase C.H.

Understanding basic statistics 8 metric version Edition

Understanding Basic Statistics Solutions Manaul 8th

Corbin's Concepts of Fitness And Wellness: A

Performance Analysis in Game Sports Concepts and

Statistics 13th Edition James T Mcclave Terry Sincich

Strategic Management: Concepts and Cases:

Instructor s Solutions Manual for Statistics for

–t 0 t 2 0.816 1.604 1.886 2.282 2.920 4.303 6.965 9.925 31.599

Charles Henry Brase

Corrinne Pellillo Brase

Australia • Brazil • Canada • Mexico • Singapore • United Kingdom • United States

SVP, Higher Education Product Management:

Product Assistant: Kyra Kruger Library of Congress Control Number: 2021921577

Senior Learning Designer: Elinor Gregory ISBN: 978-0-357-71917-6

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Notice to the Reader

Printed in the United States of America

3 Averages and Variation 84

Cumulative Review Problems 129

4 Elementary Probability Theory 132

5 The Binomial Probability Distribution

6 Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions 228

7.2 Estimating m When σ Is Unknown 323

8 Hypothesis Testing 382

9 Correlation and Regression 470

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions548

11 Nonparametric Statistics 634

Cumulative Review Problems 672

Appendix I: Additional Topics (eTextbook only) A1

Appendix II: Tables A3

Table 8: Critical Values for F Distribution A20

WebAssign for Brase/Brase’s Understandable Statistics: Concepts and Methods,

Major Changes in the Thirteenth Edition

• Chapter 3: Averages and Variation

New coverage on Grouped Data in Section 3.2.

• Chapter 4: Elementary Probability Theory

New Critical Thinking simulation activity on probability in Section 4.1.

• Chapter 5: The Binomial Probability Distribution and Related Topics

Removed coverage of “Linear Functions of a Random Variable” and “Linear

Combinations of Independent Random Variables” in Section 5.1.

Probability Distribution” in Section 5.2.

• Chapter 6: Normal Curves and Sampling Distributions

New Critical Thinking simulation activity on sampling distributions in Section 6.4.

• Chapter 9: Correlation and Regression

and correlation in Section 9.2.

Introduction of Hypothesis Testing Using P-Values

Use of Student’s t Distribution in Confidence Intervals and

Confidence Intervals and Hypothesis Tests of Difference

Features in the Thirteenth Edition

Carefully Developed Pedagogy

Technology Within the Text

Alternate Routes Through the Text

Reza Abbasian, Texas Lutheran University

Kathleen Donoghue, Robert Morris University

8 Hypothesis Testing 382

9 Correlation and Regression 470

10 Chi-Square and F Distributions548

Appendix I: Additional Topics (eTextbook only) A1

Appendix II: Tables A3