4.9 Gavin - Holmes - 2

The Hidden Secrets of Volume Revealed in
the Price Charts
Wyckoff, Weis & Williams – the art of ticker-tape reading for every chartist
One Key Objective For This
Weekend
To Learn How YOU Can Profit By
Understanding WHY Markets are
Manipulated, and how to
identify the footprints on a chart
to Trade In Harmony with the
Manipulators.
Objectives
• To learn the key VSA principles and then put them into
context to include background and trade set ups.
• To learn how to identify the highest probability low risk
entries using VSA Using “Trigger Numbers”
• To understand the concept of market manipulation and how
to profit from it – legally and ethically.
• To learn how to identify market tops and bottoms.
• To understand the “Herd” and “Weak Holders” and how to
avoid becoming either of these!
• What is a “Shakeout” and how to recognize and profit from
this maneuver by professionals.
Objectives Continued
• To learn how to identify VSA patterns as they appear and be
patient to get the best entry. All VSA patterns seen in
hindsight must have been there as they unfolded.
• To get your questions answered about specific issues you are
having with your trading/investing and gain confidence in
your chart reading ability.
• To understand Supply and Demand and the effect the
imbalance has on the chart.
• To learn from other like minded traders.
Objectives Continued
• Understanding the “Upthrust” and where to place a trade
after you see this.
• To learn the significance of the range or spread on any
individual bar and how to put it in context with the
background.
• Understand why the background is vital to placing a trade at
the right edge.
• To learn why multiple timeframes are important and how to
choose the right timeframe for your chosen market.
Congratulations to TradeGuider
Customers Earl Erenler and Tim
Rayment
Tim WON the World Cup Trading
FOREX division championship in
2004 and 2009, and Earl came in
second in 2011.
Both Traders Use Volume Spread
Analysis
What Is Volume Spread Analysis
At it’s core, Volume Spread Analysis or VSA is a
methodology based on the original works and
teachings of Richard D Wyckoff, a trader in the
early 1900’s. The methodology seeks to
establish the “cause” of price movement on a
chart. The “cause” is simply the imbalance of
supply and demand as the market trades,
resulting in strength or weakness in the market
being charted.
For the correct analysis of volume, you need to
understand that the recorded volume contains
only half the knowledge required for a correct
analysis. The other half of the knowledge is
found when observing the spread (or range) of
the price bar and the closing price on that bar.
Volume indicates the amount of activity on the
price bar and the spread or range of the bar
shows what the price actually did, and most
importantly where the price finally closed.
Volume – Spread or Range of Bar and Closing Price
Inventor VSA - Tom George Williams - Born February 4th 1929
“ If you can read a chart correctly, you will understand the markets do
not move randomly but are moved by the “Smart Money” and you can
see their intention at support and resistance levels by looking for the
tale, tale footprints hidden in the volume and price, you have a chance
to profit by following there footsteps.
Volume is vital in your analysis, which is why the self regulated
exchanges around the world will not release true volume figures until
the day after trading took place!!
Tom Williams, 2010
Volume Spread Analysis – Some Basic Concepts
TWO RULES NEVER TO FORGET
Rule number 1
When WEAKNESS (shorting opportunities)
appears on a chart, it will appear on an UP
BAR, that is a price bar that has closed higher
than the bar behind it, and will be on unusually
high volume (TradeGuider calls this Ultra High)
or unusually low volume (TradeGuider calls this
Ultra Low)
VSA Signs of Weakness
• Up bars, narrow or wide spread, close high, middle or low.
• Volume can be high or low.
• Narrow spread indicates supply.
• This supply “caps” any attempt to move up.
• Ultra high volume up bars (the classic trap of “Smart Money!!)
• Professionals have no interest in the upside – Low volume.
• Professionals are selling into the public buying – Higher volume.
• High + volume shows supply – public buying – smart money selling.
• Low – volume shows no interest from “Smart Money” so prices will
not go higher.
A Sign of Weakness Example
TWO RULES NEVER TO FORGET
Rule number 2
When STRENGTH (opportunities to go long)
appears on a chart, it will appear on a DOWN
BAR, that is a price bar that has closed lower
than the bar behind it, and will be on unusually
high volume (TradeGuider calls this Ultra High)
or unusually low volume (TradeGuider calls this
Ultra Low)
Signs of Strength
• Down bars, narrow spread, close middle or low.
• Volume can be high or low.
• Narrow spread indicates no professional selling.
• This buying prevents any attempt to move down.
• Ultra high volume down bars (the classic trap of “Smart Money!!)
• Professionals have no interest in the downside – low volume.
• Professionals are buying into the public selling – Higher volume.
• High + volume shows demand – public selling – smart money
buying.
• Low – volume shows no interest to the downside from “Smart
Money” so prices will not go lower.
A Sign of Strength Example
Are The Financial Markets
Manipulated In Your Opinion?
Market Manipulation
Gold and Silver
The Truth in the Newspaper!!
Andrew Maguire
Former Goldman Sachs Trader and Whistle Blower
Richard Ney – Actor, Author, Investor and
Educator (November 12, 1915 – July 18, 2004)
“In which it is shown that if you scrap traditional

approaches to the market and attack the financial
conspiracy with its own weapons, you can beat
the stock exchange insiders at their own game”
Richard Ney’s Rolls Royce – Look Closely at the
Number Plate
Why Is Ultra High Volume VERY,
VERY important when you see it
and what does it look like?
Because it will often mark a top or a
bottom on a price chart and give you
an early warning that a trade is
setting up against “The Herd”
Ultra High Volume Up and Down
Bars – The First Alert That a VSA
Sequence is Setting Up
How do we see ultra high volume?
We “Eyeball” The Chart
The Yao Ming Bar – What is it?
Houston’s Yao Ming would be ULTRA HIGH VOLUME on a chart!! He is
currently the tallest player in the NBA, at 2.29 m (7 ft 6 in).
SILVER CHART - CAN ANYONE SPOT YAO MING VOLUME ON 5TH Feb 2010?
A Key Principle – The Volume Spread Analysis Shakeout
The “Shakeout” – Just as Maguire predicted 2 days BEFORE it happened –
VSA Highlights this – The Yao Ming Bar
Introducing “The Trigger Number”
Examples of trigger numbers to go long after a
“Shakeout”
The “Shakeout” – Wait for the trend to change and price to move above
the top of the “Shakeout” bar. Stop loss below low of “Shakeout” bar.
After a “Shakeout” is identified – WAIT. Market price action will move
above the top of the “Shakeout” bar. Now we look for the following.
ALWAYS BE A CONTRARIAN AND READ
THE CHART – THE CHART NEVER LIES
August 2011 – US
Downgrade by S&P – BUY
GOLD - SELL STOCKS –
WHAT HAPPENED???
August 2011 Gold Price Collapsed – Stock
Market Rallied That is a Fact
Buying on Bad News – S and P
If you don't read the newspaper you
are uninformed, if you do read the
newspaper you are misinformed.
-- Mark Twain
Gold 2011 – The Safe Haven For Investors!!
Gold 2011 –Drops from $1900 to $1550 in 4 months
TradeGuider warns investors in advance of the impending gold decline
May 2008 – OIL IS GOING TO $200 A BARREL
The Chart Will Never Lie – What are “Smart
Money” Actually Doing?
CFTC Spots Manipulation
I Post the chart on You Tube July 17th 2008 Forecasting
the imminent collapse of Oil prices
The Oil Price Plummets Over 400% In Six Months
Silver Plummets 27% in One Week!!
Could you have known in advance – a week
before the collapse in early May 2011
A BUYING CLIMAX – SILVER – 25TH APRIL 2011
PICKED UP BY THE EOD SCANNER ONE WEEK BEFORE
DECLINE
VSA TRADE SET UP SHORT DAILY CHART
VSA TRADE SET UP SHORT DAILY CHART
Buffet Buy’s Bank of America – Should You??
The UPTHRUST (a strong VSA signal) in a downtrend – Time to short!
“Most people get interested in stocks when
everyone else is. The time to get interested is
when no one else is. You can’t buy what is
popular and do well.”
Warren Buffet
The Market Works Because Human Beings Have Two
Powerful Emotions They Have Difficulty Controlling
FEAR AND GREED
“The market has to be fed losers. It is devious and what you hear will
often not be the truth. I have never heard the truth about the stock
market or any market on television. Just look at the news about the Oil
market in May 2008. Greed at the top as many traders piled in because
they were told oil had to go to $200 a barrel!! The chart never lies, and
Gavin went on YouTube to show ‘The End of a Rising Market’. Then look
at the banking sector in 2008 during September. Fear set in and
professional money began to BUY not SELL and that caused stocks like
Goldman Sachs to Rally 400%. It was all in the chart if you know how to
analyze SUPPLY AND DEMAND”.
Tom Williams – Retired “Smart Money” Syndicate Trader.
How Can Volume Spread
Analysis Identify These
Moves?
Volume = Activity
We are interested in volume
because it tells us the consensus
of opinion amongst the
“Smart Money”
The Spread and Close in Relation
to the background Confirm
The VSA Sequential Trade Set Ups
• Always look for ultra high volume bars –
higher than the last 50 bars at least.
• Draw a horizontal line on the high, low and
close of the bar being observed. Project the
line out on the chart (most software does this)
• Watch as price returns to any of the three
levels.
• Look for more ultra high volume or ultra low
volume at this level – This is key to the set up.
EUR/USD – Trigger Example 1
IHG.LSE Stock – Trigger Example 2
DOW Flash Crash – Trigger Example 3
What causes price to move on a chart?
The past price does not cause the future

price to move. The price movement is
“caused” by the activity, either buying or
selling, of “Smart Money”. This CANNOT be
seen by analyzing past price alone, it is vital
to look at more than one timeframe on any
chart, and to look very closely at VOLUME
as we will now see.
How To Identify “Smart Money” Buying and
Selling
Volume – The Gasoline That Drives The Financial Markets – The Key To The Truth
Two very important points to always remember when analyzing your charts
1. Volume is ACTIVITY. As an estimate, about 85 to 90 percent of the volume

seen on the charts will be from large funds (George Soro’s), Institutional
banks (Goldman Sachs) and Professional Trading Syndicates or Pools who
are nameless, however Tom Williams worked for one as we have heard.
2. Ultra High Volume and Ultra Low Volume seen IN THE RIGHT PLACE in
context with The Background are signals from the “Smart Money” of their
true intentions, and these opportunities often arrive on earnings reports
and news events.
The Laws Governing The Markets
There Are Four Universal Laws that Govern all Market
Behavior
1.The Law of Supply and Demand

2.The Law of Cause and Effect
3.The Law of Effort Vs Result
4. The Law of Attraction (Belief in
your ability as a human being to
MAKE MONEY and keep it!)
VSA Set Up’s Long and Short
My two favorite stocks
JPM and BP
US Stock JP Morgan - Weakness
Could The Very Same Set Up
Have Happened Before Gavin?
OH YES LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, IT
DID, EXACTLY 6 MONTHS EARLIER
AND AT THE RIGHT EDGE NOW!! YOU
NOW HAVE KNOWLEDGE THAT
MANY TRADERS AND INVESTORS DO
NOT KNOW!!
JP Morgan News 14th January 2011 – Do we see Yao Ming Volume?
JP Morgan News 14th July 2011 – Do we see Yao Ming Volume?
The Secondary Upthrust – JPM Hits $32.08 9th Sept 2011
The Secondary Upthrust – JPM Hits $33.00
The Secondary Upthrust – JPM Hits $28.00
April 20th 2010
Lets take a look at the chart and see if
we can spot Yao Ming anywhere!!!
If an alien landed and asked how tall
you were and the alien had never seen
a human being then you would need to
give that alien a comparison, just like
looking at volume on a chart!!
“Smart Money” BUYS When News Is
Bad and Prices are LOW, LOW, LOW!!
The Daily Chart Shows Climactic Buying Confirmed on 10th June UP BAR
The Weekly TradeGuider VSA Chart of BP – Look Where “Smart Money”
ACCUMULATED British Petroleum, at 2003 support.
More Annotated Charts For Your Further
Study
Going Short AFTER weakness at A
Entries at B or C
Going Short No Demand at Prior
Resistance
Going Short Upthrust at B at Prior Resistance
Going Long After Accumulation
Going Long After Absorption Volume
Going Long in an Uptrend After a Shakeout
Going Long in an Uptrend After a Shakeout
Thank You For Your Time and Attention
Today

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4.9 Gavin - Holmes - 2

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The Hidden Secrets of Volume Revealed in

the Price Charts

“In which it is shown that if you scrap traditional

The past price does not cause the future

1. Volume is ACTIVITY. As an estimate, about 85 to 90 percent of the volume

1.The Law of Supply and Demand

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