Innovation dynamics

Adoption, diffusion and

collaboration patterns
 Lesson objectives
1. Define diffusion
2. Elements of diffusion
3. Adoption process
4. Diffusion of innovation
5. Types of adopters
6. Collaboration in innovation and
diffusion
Definitions of technology
1. Technology is a design for instrumental action
that reduces the uncertainty in the cause-effect
relationships involved in achieving a desired
outcome – Rogers – give examples e.g. word processor , calculator (dummy,
smart). Hammer increases chances of driving a nail through piece of wood than for
example using a metal rod

2. Technology are devices, artifacts, processes,

tools, methods and materials applied for
commercial and industrial purposes Byes et al. course text
3. Technology is branch of knowledge dealing
with scientific and industrial methods especially
one requiring skills – Longman dictionary [ a method is way of doing something]
 Definition of diffusion

Diffusion Process by
which innovations
spread through
population of
potential adopters
 QWERT and Dovak keyboards – Rogers
- Dovak keyboard – was developed using motion studies
distributing work to fingers according to strength and skill
of each finger. Dvorak keyboard has the letters A, O, E, U, I,
D, H, T, N, and S across the home row. Dovak keyboard
placed frequently used letters in writing English in middle
row and less used letters in upper and lower rows
- Although Dovak keyboard has advantages over QWERT
and was approved by ANSI and American manufacturers
association it was never been widely adopted. Why
Dovak keyboard was never adopted will be explained by
theory of adoption
- From this you can get an idea of what keyboard
innovation design looks like it requires deep
understanding of hands, fingers and the nature and
objectives keyboard is supposed to do.
 QWERT and Dovak keyboards adoption – Rogers
• About 70 percent of typing is done in top row, 22
percent on middle row and 8 percent in bottom
row
• QWERT is most widely used keyboard. QWERT
was designed for type writers and had advantage
of preventing jamming (sticking) of keys QWERT
overworks the weaker left hand 57% and right
hand 43%. Invention of Dovak changed this to
right hand typing 56% and left hand 44% of the
work.
• Its easier to unstick keys in top row where keys are most likely to stick
because they are more frequently used
 Lessons from QWERT and Dovak keyboards
- To design and invent an innovation you need to
understand what it does and how it will be used
- Even creating a non innovative computing artifact you
need to understand above whether its software,
security algorithm, designing a network and other
- Innovation adopter should be able to use it
- And it must do what adopter/user wants it to do
- Question explain four differences between designing a
mobile phone screen and desktop monitor. Explain each
difference in one sentence.
- Use at least two references
- Take 20 minutes submit blackboard week3 linkname-
phonecompmonitor
 Definitions of diffusion
1. Diffusion is the process by which
innovations spread through a population
of potential adopters - byes et al.
2. Diffusion is the process by which an
innovation
(a) is communicated/spread through
certain channels
(b) over time
(c) among the members of a social
system – Rogers
 Definition of social system
• A social system is defined as a set
of interrelated units that are
engaged in joint problem solving
to accomplish a common goal.
• The members or units of a social
system may be individuals,
informal groups, organizations,
and/or subsystems
Percent of adopters – is
cumulative number of
adopters

This diagram is called

adoption – S-Curve
Innovation adoptability Characteristics – byes et al. and Rogers

1. Relative advantage
2. Compatibility
3. Complexity
4. Trialability
5. Obervability
 Relative advantage - innovation Characteristics
- Relative advantage - The way an innovation is
perceived as better that technology its
substitutes
- Relative advantage may be measured in terms
of economic benefits to adopter or better
performance
- But social prestige, convenience are often more
important
- It doesn’t matter how much objective advantage
what matters is whether individual perceives
innovation as advantageous
Question - Discuss relative advantages of IPhone and Samsung state
of art latest mobile phones over lower end phones based on above
factors
 Trialability - innovation Characteristics
• Degree to which an innovation can be
experimented before adopting it.
Software as a service (SaaS) is easier to
try/experiment than non SaaS software.
• Innovations that can be tried before
adoption will be adopted faster than
ones that can’t be tried – all other factors
being constant
• If you go to buy a new monitor innovation- you are
likely to buy one that you can experiment to see how it
works before buying
 Compatibility - innovation Characteristics
The degree to which an innovation is perceived as
consistent with existing values , past experiences and
needs of potential adopters. If you are going to adopt a
new programming language your likely to adopt one similar to
ones that you have experience all other factors being constant
- Idea that is not compatible with the prevalent
values and norms of a social system will not be
adopted as rapidly as an innovation that is
compatible
- For example if you create a insect food innovation
product – societies that eat insects are likely to
adopt it more than societies that don't
- This is one of reasons selling Apple computer in
Kenya is more difficult that IBM Compatibles.
 Complexity - innovation Characteristics
• Degree to which innovation is
perceived as difficult to use
compared with existing technologies.
• Technologies perceived as easy to
use are adopted more quickly than
ones perceived as difficult
Students When Selecting Programming Language To
Use For Their Projects, are likely to Select
Languages That Are Easy To Use, All Other Factors
Being Constant.
 Observability - innovation Characteristics
• The degree to which benefits and
advantages of innovation are visible to
potential adopter
• - Innovations with visible benefits
adopted more quickly than innovation
with similar hidden benefits.
• If you go to a shop and salesman is selling
you a smart watch for 3000 US dollars
you unlikely to buy it unless its
advantages are visible
 Other innovation characters
1. Cost – you likely to adopt innovations that re
not not expensive relative to your purchasing
power
2. Profitability – innovation that generate more
profits are likely to be adopted more than ones
that don’t.
3. Communicability – innovations that are easy to
communicate how they works to other people
are more likely to be adopted faster than one
that are difficult to communicate
4. Social approval – innovations with low social
approval likely to be adopted slowly or not at
all. E- cigarettes have low social approval and so
many people will not adopt them.
 Exercise [don’t submit]
- Discuss how people are likely to agree
for animal organ transplants if they
have sick organs and there no human
donors
- Or start eating laboratory grown meat
- Based on any two innovation
adoption characteristics
- Take 10 minutes submit blackboard
week2 linkname- OrganMeat
- Animal organ transplants lab grown
meat illustrates dilemma people face
when adopting radical innovations.
 Types of adopters
Adoption of innovation starts with innovators followed by
early adopters and the sequence continues until laggards
who adopted technology when its almost becoming
absolute.
1. Innovators
2. Early adopters
3. Early majority
4. Late majority
5. Laggards
Marketing professional think about how to follow this groups to
ensure success of innovation adoption. If you start a startup and
you are not able to hire marketing people you will have to plan you
marketing strategy based on adoption types pattern. If you are
marketing technology and you start with Laggard you are likely to fail
Innovation adoption category - diagram
 Product life cycle and Types of adopters
Innovation introduction in market and growth
Introduction – innovators and early adopters
adopt technology
Growth – early majority adopt technology
Maturity - late majority adopt technology
Decline - laggards adopt technology

This product cycle illustrates how important adopter types

are to technology innovation success. Process of
commercialization must be designed for innovation
information to be available at the right time during
innovation adoption window similar to innovation creation
window.
 Innovators - Types of adopters
Innovators adopters – want to lead on adopting
state of art technologies and are eager to try
new technologies.- they are able to work with
complex and often untried ideas and have
substantial financial resources. If you want to be
an innovator adopter for self driving cars or
drones – you need ability and finances – they
are expensive and there isn’t enough
infrastructure and technical support in the
world and none in African countries
• Individuals and firms currently adopting drones in Africa are
innovator adopters
• Note innovators in innovation adopters are called innovators
in being first to acquire new(novel) technology and try it not
invent it.
 Early adopters - Types of adopters
There are more integrated with
potential adopters and have
greatest opinion leadership.
- Because of they are opinion
leadership they provide other
adopters with information about
innovation
 Definitions
Opinion leaders - Opinion leadership
is degree to which individual is able to
influence positively others opinions
to adopt an innovation.
• Change agents Individuals who are
able to bring change in adoption of
innovation decisions. They are
important in ensuring innovation
adoption succeeds
 Early majority - Types of adopters
Adopt just before average population of
potential adopter.
- They undertake deliberate and often
lengthy decision making.
- Because of size and connectedness with
rest of population of adopters, their
adoption signals phase of rapid diffusion
through the population.
- This is usually when Innovators profits
break even or when their profits increase
significantly
 Late majority - Types of adopters
- Adopts just after average population
has adopted.
- Adopt technology due to economic
necessity and pressure from peers
- This groups tends to have fewer
resources and are conservative
requiring more evidence about
innovation before adopting it
 Laggards - Types of adopters
Is last group to adopt innovation.
- They focus on traditions and past
experiences
- They are most skeptical about risk taking
and have fewest resources
- For IT researchers and practitioners being laggards
in adopting professions important and critical
innovations is sign you will never succeed big in
your career.
- Being a laggard is as bad as trying to be innovator
adopter for all IT innovations that become available
in market.
 Collaboration in innovation and diffusion
- Innovations are often created by teams or
groups of organizations and so collaboration is
important
- Innovations also diffuse through society
through groups of individuals with different
characteristics and abilities.
- Both innovation and diffusion need learning
and communication of knowledge and
information. Learning from other experiences
is also important.
- Collaboration is required accelerate adoption
by different members of social system by
their learning from each other.
 Reinvention
Reinvention are Changes by adopters
to make innovation more suitable for
application context
 Rogers Innovation adoption decision process steps:
(1) Knowledge, - individual or adopting unit is exposed to
the innovation thus gaining knowledge about innovation
(2) Persuasion, individual or adopting unit is convinced of
need to adopt innovation or not – innovation
characteristics influence choice pg. Relative advantage,
complexity …
(3) Decision, - individual or adopting unit makes choice to
adopt innovation
(4) Implementation, individual or adopting unit puts
innovation to use
(5) Confirmation – individual or adopting unit confirms
decision to adopt was right and continues using
innovation if not innovation is rejected
Individual or adopting units speed in doing tasks is different so is
their speeds in carrying out different stages of decision process
 Recognizing & screening technology opportunities
• Identifying opportunity for technology innovation is
important
• Different technologies should be screened for
opportunities
SWOT Analysis is a suitable for screening and technology
opportunities both for adopter unit and technology being
adopted
1. Strengths
2. Weakness
3. Opportunities
4. Threats
Expert judgment by analogy Delphi technique is also used
for forecasting/predicting future and technology
trajectories by experts.
 SWOT questions for adopting a technology
1. What are our strengths in adopting and
exploiting the technology and how can we
maximize them in future?
2. What are our major weaknesses in adopting
and exploiting the technology and how can we
overcome them? Such weaknesses as IT lack of
employee skills, capabilities and resources
3. What are our major opportunities if the
technology is adopted and exploited and how
can we take advantage of them
4. What major threats do we face if adopting and
exploiting the technology and what can we do
about them?
Expert judgment by analogy and Delphi methods
Expert judgment by analogy technique a number of
experts are consulted. Analogy is process that find a
solution to a new problem or need by adapting and
modifying solution of a similar problem that has
been solved.
1. An expert arrives at the cost by considering
target product with other products that have
been completed which the expert has been
actively involved and noting the similarities
and differences.
2. If experts come up with very different figures
the difference can be reconciled using Delphi
technique.
 Delphi technique
Delphi technique - is used in case that experts working
together are likely to form dysfunctional groups due to
factors like rivalry or some experts tending to think other
experts have more expertise than themselves. The experts
don’t know other expert involved in process. There is a
faccillator prepares a statement of problem to be solved
and distributed to several experts.
In this technique each expert produces by analogy an
estimate or prediction and reasons for the estimate.
1. The estimates and rationale are then distributed to all
the experts who produce another estimate.
2. A third estimate is made and redistributed to experts.
3. The process continues until experts arrive at
consensus
Characteristics of Dysfunctional groups
Unhealthy dominance. – one or some
members having high influence in group
preventing other member contributing or
their ideas being adapted.
Anchoring. – digression from project
interest due to strong interests of powerful
members.
Search behavior. – commitment to
premature ideas due to anxiety of project
progress
 Recognizing & screening technology opportunities -
Arman, Hodgson, Nabil Gindy
• Technologies and processes used in producing
products are different. You produce your
product using one type of technology/process
and your competitor produces using a
different technology/process.
• Example is PCs where manufacturers may use
Intel or AMD processors. Intel processor are
generally more popular than AMD.
• Technology drivers are defined by market
needs, customer preference etc.
Technology maturity:
1. Introduced – The technology is introduced in market
little is known about it and usually doesn’t work well
2. Growth – adoption of innovation increases and
knowledge about it as well as technology working
better.
3. Maturity – the technology matures, its well
understood, its price has fallen and often they are
many companies manufacturing the technology
4. Decline. – improvement and performance of
technology decreases. The technology approached its
improvement limits.
• Avoid technologies that are about to become absolute
• Be prepared to experiment and fail several time when adopting new
innovations just introduced in market
Technology maturity: [continue here]
1. Introduced – innovator adopters adopt new
innovations just introduce in market
2. Growth – early majority adopt new innovations just
in growth phase
3. Maturity – late majority adopt technology
innovations when they are mature
4. Decline. – laggard adopt technology when its
declining and about to become obsolete.

• Avoid technologies that are about to become obsolete

• Be prepared to experiment and fail several time when
adopting ne innovations just introduce in market
 Other diffusion models – Teng, Groverand Güttler
External diffusion model – assumes they is no
communication between members of social system.
All communication comes from mass media or
consulting companies
Internal diffusion model – assumes diffusion occurs
only due to contacts by members of social system
Bass model – assumes adoption is influenced by
both contacts of social system as well as external
factors.
• All These models have one factor in common :
rate of diffusion is related to number of potential
adopters and communication between potential
social system adopters
 Start up adopting an innovation SWOT analysis
Strengths
1. Team members have project
capability to adopt innovation
and to exploit to advantage of
startup
2. There resources such as money
to adopt innovation and to
exploit to advantage of startup
Add two more strengths
Weakness
1. Startup may not have enough
resources necessary to adopt
innovation and to exploit to its
advantage
2. The startup may not have
experience, skills and capabilities to
adopt and exploit the innovation

Add two more weakness

 Start up adopting an innovation SWOT analysis
Opportunities
1. It may allow startup to be able to
produce its products quickly and
therefore be able penetrate
market faster.
2. May allow startup to enter new
markets like provide training or
consultancy if startup is doing
other things
Add two more opportunities
 Start up adopting an innovation SWOT analysis
Threats
1. The innovation may cause startup to
deviate from most profitable
technologies and markets
2. The startup may not be able to master
the innovation as quickly as it expects
3. Innovation may nor work as expected,
for example you have innovation being
withdraw from market

Add two more threats

 GROUP assignment (Submit by 8-2-2024)
Discuss adoption of following technology in a
named African country.
• Smart TVs
Use rogers adoption theory
• Innovation adopter characteristics
• Adopter types
• Adoption decision making process
Use at least four references
1 ½ pages, roman times font size12 single
spacing not including cover page
Submit link name: smartTVsWK3 blackboard
week 3.
 Individual lesson Exercise don’t submit
Discuss adoption of following technology in a
named African country.
• Smart robots
Use rogers adoption theory
• Innovation adopter characteristics
• Adopter types
• Adoption decision making process
Use at least three references
1 ½ pages, roman times font size12 single
spacing not including cover page
Submit link name: smartrobotsWK3 blackboard
week 3.
How brainstorming prevents forming of Dysfunctional
groups in novel idea generation – slide should be in handout1
Unhealthy dominance. – one or some members
having high influence in group preventing other
member contributing or their ideas being adapted -
brain storming helps in stimulating active
participation and introduction of the idea of idea
contagion.
- brainstorming as well helps in the developments of
team work spirits amongst team members.
Anchoring. – digression from project interest due to
strong interests of powerful members. - brain
storming could help since it develops the creativity
instincts in team members and stimulates self-
confidence through different assessments.
How brainstorming prevents forming of Dysfunctional
groups in novel idea generation…
Search behavior. – commitment to premature ideas
due to anxiety of project progress - brain storming
creates the idea of quick and easy obtaining of
ideas that are novel and with solutions too.
• brain storming is method that can be applied at
any time by team members at a very low costs
thus can be used by all kind of firm whether new
entry firm or rather an existing firm
• -brain storming could help since it is a technique
that is widely applied and used in all areas hence
high familiarities.