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Fractal pattern of the Sumatra fault seismicity and its application to earthquake
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Article in Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America · January 1998

DOI: 10.1785/BSSA0870061685

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 Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, Vol. 87, No. 6, pp. 1685-1690, December 1997

Fractal Pattern of the Sumatra Fault Seismicity and Its Possible Application
to Earthquake Prediction
b y Sigit S u k m o n o , M. T. Z e n , L. H e n d r a j a y a , W . G. A. K a d i r , D. S a n t o s o , a n d J. D u b o i s

Abstract It has been noted that the characteristics of earthquakes occurring on an

active fault are closely related to the irregularity of fault geometry. Because of their
rough appearances over many length scales, faults can be regarded as fractal sets and
their geometrical irregularity can be quantified using fractal dimension values. Pre-
vious observations show that the Sumatra fault system (SFS) consists of 11 active
fault segments with geometric fractal dimension values (D) ranging from 1.00 ___
0.03 to 1.24 ___ 0.03. In this article, the relationships between D values and large
shallow earthquakes (5.0 _-< mb ~ 7.0, depth _-< 50 km) occurring between 1965 and
1994 are analyzed. The results show that there is a repetitive pattern, which we call
the fractal pattern, of the SFS seismicity, correlating the times of earthquake recur-
rence with fault segment geometric D values. Based on this fractal pattem and the
relationship between segment D values and seismogenic crustal models along the
SFS, the 11 segments of the SFS can be divided into two groups of three classes in
which each segment class has a specific earthquake recurrence interval. The recur-
rence interval then may be used to predict future large earthquakes in the segment
classes as we have done before in predicting the 7 October 1995 Kerinci earthquake
and 10 October 1996 Torn earthquake.

Introduction

The Sumatra fault system (SFS) is a 1650-kin-long NW-
trending dextral strike-slip fault zone that accommodates the
oblique convergence between the Indo-Australian and Eu-
rasian plates. It extends in a succession of at least 11 seg-
ments and connects northward to the Andaman extensional
back arc basin and southward to the extensional fault zone
of the Sunda strait (Fig. 1). Although the SFS is widely
known as one of the world's great active dextral faults and
has generated many destructive earthquakes (Table 1), its
seismic behavior is largely unknown.
The seismic behavior of a fault can be correlated with
the fault's geometrical irregularity. Certain faults or fault
segments always rupture in "characteristic" earthquakes
governed by their geometrical irregularity (Schwartz and
Coopersmith, 1984). A detailed knowledge of fault-system
geometry is requisite to an understanding of the mechanics
of faulting in terms of the concentrations of stress and other
departures from stress homogeneity that arise from compli-
cated fault geometries (Segall and Pollard, 1980). Because
of their rough appearances over many length scales, faults
can be regarded as fractal, and a fault's geometrical irregu-
larity can be quantified by the fractal dimension D: larger D
values are associated with more irregular geometry. The D
values then can be related to some faulting mechanics pa-
rameters such as stress condition, degree of faulting, and
fracturing energy density.
The definition of a fractal distribution is given by (Man-
delbrot, 1982)
Ni = C / ~ , (1)
where Ni is the number of objects with a linear dimension
r;, D is the fractal dimension, and C is a constant of propor-
tionality. In an earlier article (see Sukmono et al., 1996), we
calculated the fractal dimension D for SFS fault segments
using the method outlined in Okubo and Aki (1987). D val-
ues for the 11 active segments of the SFS ranged from D =
1 + 0.03 to 1.24 + 0.03 (Fig. 1). By making inferences on
the complexity of the geometry of mapped faults and its
relation to fault mechanics, we assume that the complexity
mapped at the surface is representative of the structural detail
at depth, as suggested by Eaton et aL (1970).
Based on maximum SFS aftershock depths (Harjono et
al., 1994), we chose an upper fractal cutoff of 15 km with a
lower fractal cutoff of 1 km as suggested in Okubo and Aki
(1987). With the upper cutoff of 15 kin, only active fault
traces lying within a 30-km-wide band centered about the
primary fault trace are included in the D value determina-
tions.
Sukmono et al. (1996) observed also that there are six
fractal discontinuities along the segments that are reflected

1685
1686 Short Notes

I I I
95 E 100 E 105 E
Andaman
Sea N
0~ 5 0 o km
5N
_ D=I. 19-L-_0.03

Aceh I)=1.06-1.07
D=1.07+0.02

% ~- D=I.07_+0.03
0_." "~ ~ '
Southeast
sia Plate i
-Asik

-0 /'///"~
Singkarak "f D=1.01-1.02 0
"D=I.00-+0.03/"~
//' Muaralaboh" ~ /'2
I Indo-Australia
~/I)=1:15+_0.01 ~, //
Plate // g~./:
Kerinci
D=I'01 +-0"02
Seblat
=l.os!o.uz iD=l 21-1 24
Kepahiang ......."~ "
=1.02+0.03 ~
Year !., / Ranau

1833

1861
I)=1.24~0.03 Sunda
1907 Strait
1914 100 E \ 105 E

Figure 1. Sumatra active fault segments, their fractal dimensions (D), discontinuities
in D (I, II, III), and extent of subduction-related great earthquake ruptures (M > 7.5)
that occurred in the last two centuries. Solid circles are epicenters of 1965 to 1994
shallow large earthquakes that occurred along the fault segments. Stars are the predicted
earthquakes. Numbers of circles and stars indicate numbers of earthquakes in Table 1.
MFZ is Mentawai fault zone. Subduction-related earthquake rupture adopted from New-
comb and McCann (1987).

by sharp changes of D values and gravity anomaly patterns.
The locations of these discontinuities correspond to sites of
major structural breaks in the Sumatra fore arc and bound-
aries of subduction-related great-earthquake ruptures (Fig.
1), suggesting a close relationship between segmentation in
Sumatra active faults and in the Sumatra fore arc. It was
suggested also by Sukmono e t al. (1996) that the second,
third, and sixth fractal discontinuities reflect the three most
important structural breaks in Sumatra and may correspond
to deeper important structures, as they stopped the ruptures
of the two greatest 1833 and 1861 subduction earthquakes
that have magnitude of 8.7 to 8.8 and 8.3 to 8.5, respectively
(Newcomb and McCann, 1987). A more detailed discussion
on the relationships between fractal discontinuities and re-
sponsible geodynamical processes is given in Sukmono e t
al. (1996) and is not reviewed here.
Short Notes 1687

Table 1 its high-frequency character, saturates for large e v e n t s - -

Large Shallow Earthquakes along the Sumatra Fault Segments above 7.0 (Geller, 1976).
(5.0 = m b -----7.0, depth -< 50 km) We plot the segment geometric D values with respect
Notes (D: number of people killed;
to the times of earthquake occurrences in Figure 4. It can be
Date/Month/ I: no. of injured; recognized from this figure that, according to the relation of
No. Year mb Segment D H: no. of houses destroyed)
segment D values and earthquake recurrence intervals, the
1. 07/06/1965 6.0 Kepahiang 1.02 11 segments of Sumatra active fault are separated into two
2. 05/06/1969 5.3 Aceh 1.07 major groups. It corresponds with the previous observation
3. 25/06/1969 5.3 Alas 1.19 that the 11 segments lie in two major blocks. The first seg-
4. 15/09/1969 5.0 Kepahiang 1.02
5. 10/10/1974 6.0 Kepahiang 1.02 ment group with D = 1.00 to 1.15 contains those segments
6. 08/03/1977 5.5 Asik 1.06 D = 5, I = 12, H = 1000 in the Mergui microplate that can be further separated into
7. 18/12/1979 5.0 Seblat 1.01 I = 12, H = 500 two classes with D values of 1.00 to 1.02 and 1.06 to 1.15.
8. 01/04/1980 5.6 Alas 1.19 The second segment group contains those segments in the
9. 25/05/1981 5.0 Ranau 1.21 Woyla microplate with D values of 1.19 to 1.24. A repetitive
10. 27/08/1984 5.4 Toru 1.07
11. 12/08/1986 5.3 Singkarak 1.00 pattern relating the times of earthquake occurrences with the
12. 08/09/1986 5.2 Aceh 1.07 distribution of segment D values can also be recognized,
13. 25/04/1987 6.0 Toru 1.07 D = 22, I = 22, H = 300 e.g., 4 to 5 shocks in group I followed by 1 to 2 shocks in
14. 22/08/1988 5.0 Aceh 1.07 group II, with the time interval between the last earthquake
15. 11/09/1990 5.0 Seblat 1.01 in group I and the first earthquake in group II being very
16. 12/09/1990 5.0 Aceh 1.07
17. 15/11/1990 5.4 Alas 1.19 H = 54 short (days to months). The recurrence interval in each class
18. 15/02/1994 6.2 Ranau 1.21 D = 203, I = 1600, H = 2000 is also regular and consistent with their D values.
19. 07/10/1995 7.0 Kerinci 1.01 Predicted, D = 78, I = 1317, In July of 1995, based on our recurrence intervals, we
H = 5000 announced in the daily newspaper, KOMPAS, the possibility
20. 10/10/1996 6.0 Tom 1.07 Predicted, I = 5, H = 30 of an earthquake on one of the segments of the first class
(with D = 1.0 to 1.02 and consisting of the Kepahiang,
Seblat, Singkarak, and Kerinci segments) (Zen and Suk-
By comparing with the microplate configuration of Su- mono, 1995). At that time, the most recent earthquake in the
matra (Fig. 2) and with the Earth crust model beneath Su- class occurred on the Seblat segment on 11 September 1990
matra (Fig. 3), and by using a previous assumption that the (Table 1). The recurrence interval was found to range from
seismogenic crust depth is about 15 kin, we find that the 11 4 to 7 years with an average value of 5 years (Fig. 4). The
segments of the SFS lie in two major seismogenic crust 7 October 1995 earthquake in the Kerinci segment (which
blocks. The first block lies in the weaker granitic Mergui had the longest quiescence of the class) testified to our pre-
microplate with density p of 2.75 gr/cc and consists of seg- diction. The second class (consisting of the Aceh, Asik,
ments with lower D values of 1.00 to 1.15. The second block Toru, and Muaralaboh segments with D = 1.06 to 1.07)
lies in the stronger ophiolitic Woyla microplate with density also has a regular recurrence interval of 6 to 8 years (average
p of 2.90 gr/cc and consists of segments with higher D values 7 years), except for the three Aceh segment events between
of 1.19 to 1.24. 1986 to 1988. While these three events have a time interval
The occurrence of these two major blocks with different of less than 2 years, this may be caused by the presence of
D values and physical characteristics suggest that the seis- abundant serpentinite along the segment, which facilitates
micity of the blocks are different. To address this problem, more frequent segment movements. Prior to submission of
we examine the spatial-temporal distribution of earthquakes this article, the most recent earthquake of this class had oc-
occurring along the segments and study its relationship with curred in the Aceh segment on 12 September 1990. The
the segments D values. occurrence of the Torn earthquake on 10 October 1996 (dur-
ing review) nicely supports our estimated recurrence times.
The third class (D = 1.19 to 1.24 and consists of Alas,
D a t a and Results Ranau, and Semangko segments) has also a regular recur-
rence interval of 10 to 13 years (average 11 years). The
For assessing the relationship between the fractal ge- repetitive patterns we observe may be useful for long-term
ometry of Sumatra active fault segments and their seismicity, (years) large-earthquake prediction along the SFS.
we examine large shallow earthquakes (h _--<50 km, 5 = m b The above results suggest a close relationship between
=< 7.0) that occurred from January 1965 to December 1994 D values and the earthquake recurrence intervals and
along the Sumatra fault segments (Fig. 1 and Table 1). We strongly indicate the major role of fault geometry in con-
do not use data collected before 1965 and events with mb trolling the SFS seismicity. Recalling that stick-slip fault mo-
< 5.0 because they are generally poorly calibrated by a tion is highly controlled by the friction between the moving
small number of seismological stations. We eliminate events fault planes, the results also suggests a dependence of fric-
with rnb > 7.0 as it is known that the mb scale, because of tion on the irregularity of fault geometry.
1688 Short Notes

'1 I iI
95* E ,• lO0" E 105° E
,,,

1D=1.07.Acehl
N
A /, v.,.
0~ 500 Ion
5*N

/ ! ~ I~1.06-1.07,
/ Tom and Asii
/

%
/I

"0
%, M !abor,

D=1.01-1.02, Seblat,
I

0
Kepahiang, Kerinei

/
/
/

Ranau and
Semangko

Mieroplate an its mare

Mergui (granite) % ~ ~ 5 " S -
Mutus (ophiofite)
Mallaca (quartzite)

- -
95*E
Woyla (volcanic-arc
Woyla (ophiolite)
assoc.)
° "B - . .
I

Figure 2. Relationships of segments D values, discontinuities in D and configuration

of microplates forming Sumatra. See text for discussion (microplates configuration is
adopted from Pulunggono and Cameron, 1984).

Discussion and Conclusions
Faults are not perfectly planar on any scale, and the
effects of fault geometrical irregularity on faulting mechan-
ics can be very extreme (e.g., Scholz, 1990; Segall and Po-
lard, 1980). Therefore, an ability to measure and quantify
the nature of fault geometrical complexity is very important
for the understanding of the earthquake faulting mechanics
process. Because of their rough appearances over many
length scales, faults can be regarded as fractal surfaces and
their geometrical complexity can be quantified by fractal di-
mension value D. The main purpose of this article is to dis-
cuss the application of fractal geometry analysis to obtain
the relationships between earthquake recurrence interval and
fault geometry D value in the SFS. The results show that
there is a repetitive pattern correlating the fault's D values
and earthquake recurrence.
Seismicity behavior of a region is generally analyzed
using the b-value analysis. Using this b-value relation, the
probability of occurrence of magnitude 5 to 7 earthquakes
in a region can be predicted, but it is inherently difficult to
predict on which faults the earthquakes will occur. It is gen-
erally believed also that the short time span of good quality
seismic record, which makes b-value analysis for a fault sys-
Short Notes 1689

A Aceh Alas Toru, Asik,Singkarak,Muaralaboh,Kerinci, Ranau,Semangko B

I)=1.07 D=l.19 Seblat, Kepahiang (D = 1.00 - 1.15) D = 1.19 - 1.24
-120 ~ r--~ ~ ). ~ .~
I I1 III Observed Model VI

0 800 km _[ 1600 km
' i im .1~ , ,

C~
~ - - - - 1::)=3"2gL/cc'---- l 0=3.4 /cc

Figure 3. A northwest-southeast (A-B) section along the SFS showing relationship

of segments D values, discontinuities in D and Earth crust model beneath the fault as
derived from gravity data. Locations of points A and B are given in Figure 2. (Earth
crust model adopted from Kadir et aL, 1996.)

1~5

120
I IV-
i [ PredictedToruEarthquake
1.15

1.10
! [ October10, 1996
I I . J

t~ I
1.~ .// ,m,
\
1.~ - /
0.~
IPredictedKerinciEarthquake~----
October7, 1995
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year
Figure 4. Times of large-earthquake (5.0 =< mb -<--7.0) occurrences plotted with the
respect to the fractal dimensions of Sumatra fault segments geometries.

tern often impossible, is one of the critical obstacles to the
success of earthquake prediction. In this respect, this study
shows that the spatial and temporal distribution of earth-
quakes in SFS is strongly related to the distribution of fault
fractal geometry. If this fractal behavior persists through the
seismic cycle, then fractal fault geometry analysis is likely
to provide valuable information on patterns of seismicity of
the Sumatra fault and should help in earthquake prediction.
The results obtained in this study also suggest that the
fractal dimension of the fault geometry may be related to the
friction between the moving fault planes and that the anal-
ysis on the relationship of segments D values and segments
seismic characters may reveal some valuable information on
the fault seismicity behavior that may not have been clear
before. However, more detailed studies are required to es-
tablish more solid relationships between the fractal fault ge-
ometry and the friction-controlled stick-slip behavior.
Acknowledgments
Supported by RUT IV and II projects under BPPT Contracts No
283/SP/RUT/BPPT/IV/96 and No. 51/SP/RUT/BPPT/IV/96. We thank F.
Hehuwat and D.H. Natawidjaja for their valuable discussions. Critical
comments from Dr. Lee K. Steck and one reviewer highly improved the
contents of the article.
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Short Notes
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Geophysical Program
Department of Geology
Institute of Technology Bandung
JI. Ganesha 10 Bandung 40132, Indonesia,
Fax: 62-22-2509169; E-mail: sukrnono@ibm.net
(S.S., M.T.Z., W.G.A.K., L.H., D.S.)
Institute de Physique du Globe de Paris
4 Place Jussieu, B89, 75252
Paris Cedex 05, France
(J.D.)
Manuscript received 27 February 1996.