Classical discrete distributions

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION

Characteristics of binomial distribution:

- the experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials

- each trial has two possible outcomes, namely a success and a failure
- the probability of a success is denoted by p, whilst the probability of a failure is 1-p and
is denoted by q, keeping in mind that they do not change from trial to trial
- the trials are independent

Definition

If X, supposing that it illustrates the number of successes, follows the binomial distribution then X is

( k
given by X: k k n−k
Cn p q )
k k n−k
⮚ which gives the formula P(X=k) = C n p q

⮚ where C n counts the number of subsets with k elements that can be selected from a set
k

n!
with n elements and has the following formula: C n =
k
( n−k ) ! k !

The average number of successes

E(X)=np
2
σ =npq

Example 1. The manufacturer of a bag of sweets claims that there is a 90% chance that the bag
contains some toffees. If 20 bags are chosen, what is the probability that:

a) all the bags contain toffees?

b) more than 18 bags contain toffees?
 ✔ This experiment is a binomial distribution since it fulfills all the properties mentioned
previously – the outcome of any one trial is not affected by what happened in others and
the number of trials is 20 and the probability of success is 0.9.
a) We assume the random variable X represents the number of bags with toffee, meaning that
X may take the values 0,1,2,…,20.
20 20 0
P(X=20) = C 20(0.9) (0.1) = 0.12

19 19 1
b) P(X>18) = P(X=19) + P(X=20) = C 20(0.9) ( 0.1 ) +0.12 = 0.4

Example 2. In clinical trials a certain drug has an 8% success rate of curing a known disease. If 15
people are known to have the disease, what is the probability that at least 2 are cured?

We consider Y to be the random variable denoting the number of people cured, where the number
of trials is 15 and the probability of success is 0.08.
0 0 15 1 1 14
P(Y≥2) = 1-[P(Y=0)+P(Y=1)] = 1-[C 15(0.08) (0.92) +C 15(0.08) ( 0.92) ¿ = 0.34

Example 3. Consider the purchase decisions of the next three customers who enter the Mango
store. On the basis of past experience, the store manager estimates the probability that any
customer will make a purchase is 0.30.

a) What is the probability that one customer will make a purchase?

b) What is the average number of customers who will make a purchase?

a) We define the simple events. Ai : the customer i will make a purchase, where i=1,2,3
Ai : the customer i will not make a purchase

P(one customer will make a purchase) = ( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2∩ A3 )

P( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 ) =

= P(( A1∩ A2∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2∩ A3 ) U ( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 ))

= P( A1∩ A2∩ A3 ) + P( A1∩ A2∩ A3 ) + P( A1∩ A2 ∩ A3 )

= P( A1) x P( A2 ) x P( A3 ) + P( A1) x P( A2 ) x P( A3 ) + P( A1) x P( A2 ) x P( A3 )

= 0.3x0.7x0.7 + 0.7x0.3x0.7 + 0.7x0.7x0.3

= 3 x 0.3 x 0.7 2

Observation
Binomial process: n=3 customers

success = the customer will make a purchase

failure = the customer will not make a purchase

P(success) = 0.3

P(failure) = 0.7

X = number of successes = number of customers who will make a purchase => P(X=1) = 3 x 0.3 x 0.7 2

c) E(X) = 3 x 0.3 = 0.9

2 3! 6
C3 = = =3
( 3−1 ) ! 2! 2
σ X = √ ❑ = √ ❑ = 0.79