The changing face of

Islamabad — 30 years
of urban expansion
In Islamabad, croplands, grasslands, and forests have
been converted into urban structures, making it one
of the fastest-expanding cities in the country.

Muhammad Asif | Published December 20, 2023

0:06 / 12:13 1x 1.2x 1.5x

Cities are considered key battlegrounds in the fight

against climate change, with rapid urbanisation
presenting possibly the biggest challenge for dealing
with climate-induced disasters, pollution and
biodiversity loss. At the same time, cities have a major
impact on a country’s financial health and are often
viewed as engines of economic growth.

Globally, cities are expanding quickly. Half of the global

population already lives in cities, and by 2050, two-thirds
of the world’s population is expected to live in urban
areas.

People move to cities for a variety of reasons, including

better access to livelihood opportunities, healthcare,
education, and social facilities. For many, cities serve as
the hope for upward social mobility. Pakistan too is
rapidly urbanising and in the next 20 years, there will
likely be a notable increase in the number of urban
areas across the country.

This projected urban development, if done in an

unsustainable manner, presents a grave danger to the
environment and biodiversity, raising concerns about its
long-term viability as observed in the context of
Islamabad.

The humble origins of

Islamabad
Islamabad, established in 1960, is a modern and planned
city compared to the other urban centres of Pakistan.
After Karachi, it has served as Pakistan’s capital since
1963. It is located at the base of the Margalla Hills on
the Potohar Plateau, between 457 and 610 meters above
sea level, and is surrounded by thick Himalayan forests.
Over the years, Islamabad’s population has ballooned
from 0.117 million in 1961 to 2.4 million in 2023.

This exponential growth in the city’s population may be

attributed to its favourable climate, abundant green
spaces, the presence of protected areas like the Margalla
Hills National Park [renowned as a tourist spot], its high
expatriate population, easy access to healthcare and
educational facilities, and for being a hub for business
and trade.
Unfortunately, such massive increases in population
trigger rapid urban expansion, causing substantial
changes in land use and the local ecology of cities. This
leads to the replacement of natural land cover with
impermeable urban materials, resulting in deforestation,
habitat loss, disrupted ecosystems, and harm to
biodiversity. It contributes to changing local climates,
increases energy consumption, and affects air and water
quantity and quality.

In Islamabad, croplands, grasslands, and forests have

been converted into urban structures — housing
societies, commercial markets, roads, and parking lots —
making it one of the fastest-expanding cities in the
country.

From 1990 to 2020

A three-decade land use and land cover change analysis
conducted by WWF-Pakistan’s Richard Garstang
Conservation GIS Laboratory revealed that Islamabad’s
overall built-up area has increased dramatically from
2,693 hectares in 1990 to 18,469 hectares in 2020 — a
staggering increase of approximately 585 per cent.
During these three decades, Islamabad has expanded at a
rate of approximately 525 hectares per year.

This swift urban expansion in Islamabad has mostly taken

place at the expense of productive agricultural land and
grasslands — key ecosystems that provide important
services such as carbon storage, a barrier to erosion, and
biodiversity growth.

A large portion of Islamabad’s development has been

concentrated along major roads such as the Islamabad
Motorway, Lehtrar Road, Srinagar Highway, and
Peshawar-Rawalpindi (N5) Road, which has in turn
transformed rural areas into urban centres. The results
also reveal that there have been significant
transformations in the city’s landscape over the span of
three decades — Islamabad had 28,060 hectares of tree
cover in 1990, which had decreased to 25,243 hectares
by 2020.
A number of research papers on urban sprawl in
Islamabad have also revealed significant expansion of the
city’s built-up areas, resulting in the loss of natural
habitats. These changes indicate a growing urban
footprint and the effects of this continuous expansion on
the ecosystem.

The transformation of Islamabad’s land use land cover

between 1990 and 2020. — Data Source: Mapped and
processed using Landsat Satellite imagery by Richard
Garstang Conservation GIS Lab, WWF-Pakistan.

Impact of uncontrolled
urbanisation on climate
One of the many consequences of uncontrolled
urbanisation is an increase in temperature in urban areas
relative to surrounding vegetated areas. Man-made
structures absorb heat and then radiate it into the air at
night, raising the local temperature — a phenomenon
known as urban heat island effect .

According to historical data, the average temperature in

Islamabad has increased by 3°C between 1961 and 1990.
UN-Habitat predicts that Islamabad’s future climate
estimates are far more concerning, with temperatures
increasing by 0.7°C until 2039 and 2.2°C until 2069.
Additionally, sprawling cities can have several
environmental consequences, such as increasing traffic
congestion, greenhouse gas emissions, and air pollution.

In 2016, Pakistan’s air quality ranked fifth worst in the

world, primarily due to industrial and vehicular
emissions as well as crop burning. If the current levels of
air pollution were to continue, it would shorten the
average Pakistani’s lifespan by 2.7 years.

Rapid urbanisation can have long-term consequences

on extreme weather events, influencing both
temperature and precipitation patterns. Islamabad is
vulnerable to these weather extremes, both in terms of
temperature and rainfall. According to the ‘Climate
Change Vulnerability Assessment’ on Islamabad, the
city received 620 mm of rain in under 10 hours, the
highest volume rainfall in 24 hours recorded anywhere in
Pakistan in the past century. Extreme temperatures have
also been recorded, with the maximum being 46°C in
June 2005.

Changes in urban land use, which frequently entail the

replacement of natural surfaces with impermeable
surfaces, can exacerbate urban floods. This happens
when precipitation cannot be absorbed adequately into
the ground, resulting in excessive surface runoff and
overburdened drainage systems.

The urbanisation of Islamabad has also resulted in the

growing challenge of urban flooding — a cloudburst in
Islamabad triggered an urban flash flood in the E-11
sector and nearby area, resulting in the deaths of a
mother and her child.

Population surge and the

increasing water stress
According to the Capital Development Authority,
Islamabad’s population is projected to reach 4.443
million by 2050. This increase in population, coupled with
urbanisation, rural-to-urban migration, and climate
change, will also exert great stress on its water quality
and availability.

The groundwater table in the Potohar region has been

depleted by 116m in the last 30 years, and water
availability per capita has dropped dramatically, from
5,300 m3 in 1951 to 850 m3 in 2013.
Islamabad relies on sources like the Simly, Khanpur, and
Rawal dams, tube wells, and tiny water streams, but they
are unable to satisfy the demand. The maximum
combined water production from these sources is 84
million gallons per day (MGD), while Islamabad’s average
water demand is 176 MGD — a shortfall of 106 MGD
for most of the year.

WWF-Pakistan
@WWFPak · Follow

Check out this animated insight into

the alarming urban expansion in #Islamabad.

#DYK Islamabad's green cover declined from

28,060 hectares in 1990 to 25,243 hectares in
2020?

Watch on X

9:30 AM · Dec 15, 2023

43 Reply Share

Read 2 replies

Residents mitigate this water shortage by drawing from

dug wells . The United Nations predicts that water
consumption in cities around the world will double
between 2007 and 2050, intensifying resource strain and
decreasing freshwater supplies. According to a research
paper published in 2020, Islamabad has a severe yearly
groundwater depletion rate of 1.7 metres due to
urbanisation and population increase.
In 2018, Pakistan developed the National Water Policy,
with the aim of prioritising water conservation and the
enhancement of groundwater recharge through various
approaches. One of them is rainwater harvesting, which
can effectively manage urban flooding and groundwater
depletion. In Islamabad, with an annual rainfall of
approximately 1,300 mm, harvesting just 50pc of this
potential could balance the current water supply of 142
MCM provided by the Capital Development Authority.

Moreover, WWF-Pakistan is implementing the

“Australia-Pakistan Water Security Initiative” to promote
the Water Sensitive Cities (WSCs) Vision for Pakistan in
Islamabad and Rawalpindi. WSCs employ a nature-based
approach to holistically manage the integrated water
cycle, enhancing city liveability, resilience, sustainability,
and productivity.

What we need for a resilient

and sustainable future
Pakistan currently struggles with severe economic, food
security, and climate change related challenges. At the
same time, the country’s fertile agricultural land is being
transformed into buildings and housing societies,
resulting in rapid urbanisation, arguably the greatest
obstacle to coping with climate change and economic
growth.

On the other hand, Pakistan has started initiatives to

convert the degraded areas and deserts into arable land
to address food security challenges, which requires
significant resources and time. Therefore, it’s crucial to
prioritise a national climate resilience agenda with
priority for sustainable agricultural practices, fostering
resilient urban development, promoting initiatives for
clean energy, enhancing human capital, and strategically
aligning financing mechanisms to mitigate climate
change and food security challenges in Pakistan.

The rapid urbanisation of cities is extremely concerning

since it is associated with increasing population pressure,
environmental deterioration, and the effects of climate
 change. A multifaceted strategy incorporating urban
development, environmental sustainability, and climate
adaptation techniques is the need of the hour to counter
the challenges of climate change resulting from rapid
urbanisation.

Legislators and urban planners should impose stringent

land use regulations to preserve green spaces and
agricultural land while promoting the use of green
infrastructure. The use of modern technology, such as
remote sensing and GIS, is critical for monitoring urban
expansion trends and land use changes on a regular basis.
These techniques are extremely useful for identifying
places at high risk of urbanisation as well as measuring
the impact of urbanisation on natural resources.

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