Ung dung mang no-ron nhan tao vao dy bao nhu cau du khach dén Quang Binh ‘Tom tt. Dr bio chinh xe nhu chu du ih nti mst iém an dng vai rb +t quan trong trong vige te vin chinh sich, lip ké hoach va xiy dmg chin huge ea mot dia phuome hey qude gia. C® ahigw cach tip en dio nhu edu dl ie, trong 6 dr bio dv ten i chu thot gan thu hit nhigw swe quan ‘tim nit do tinh chit Khng 6 eu trie eta laid igumiy. Mang no-ron nin ‘go dye dh gi 1 mt phone php dir bio de bit phi ap vi oa Au King e6 edu tri, mic dt gin nu Khéng thé gi thich duge cc xt I bn ‘rong cian. Bai bio niy nghién city sr dung mang no-ron nh tao vio dr bso de igu hui th gian vé nu edu du Khach dén Quang Binh, trong dé ba nd hinh mang MLP, RBF vi ELN duye xem xét. Voi kt qua m6 pong tha doe, mang RBF cho két qué dk bio tét nit, vii MSE, RMSE, MAE vi MAPE thdp at, so vi hai foi mang cba li. Két qui ny King din thé ing tin ning chuyén A king gan ti phi yn than tay tinh ea Kp én 4 im cho RBF tri nén manh mé divi load igu king eeu trie ‘Tir kha: Dy bo nu edu du ih, dt igu chubi tho gin, mang no-ron alin ‘ao, dh bo du Lich Quine Binh 1 Dat vin ae rong thi gian gin diy, nhigu da phuong hay quéc gia di nhin the ring du ich 1a amt ngudn thu ngogi «quan trong va wo mbiu vige lim cho ng dn. Du fic 1b rt nginh kinh doanh dang phit tién nhanh nbit thé gi, BSi wi dia phwong hay aise gia, du ich ding mt vai trd quan trong va e6 nhitng dng g6p ding ké cho sit tng truimg. Vige xi tgn cic den du ch tvimg lién quan dénnhitag khodn tien dl ur ding ké, nén dé tinh e6ng, ce nhi iu w trong Tinh we nly phai duge trang bj cic efng cu thich hgp dé phn tich va didn pai cdc dligu 6 sia, Dy bio chin sxe vé nhu cau du lich la ditu ign tign quyét doi voi qu trinh ra quyétdinh trong ec (6 ce du eh ca Khu yet in eng nn Dy lio (foreestng) 18 gu tinh 18 chief thing tin qua Khe mit hig teamed di oan xu hung nio xay ra tuong lai. Trong linh wed lich, dr bo nhu cd da lich (ouriam demand forecasting) dv thye ign da trén dt Hig ich se nb iu dulich duye thé hign dui inh thie chub th gin time series). Nhu ct du ih 66 thé thé hign dudi nhigw hinh thee Khée nha, nb: sb luong du Khich dn, mite chi tiga / Kosi thu du id, pian ltr, s8 Amn nghi ti chi lu tr, [1], Dod, ce mi hinh dir bio chudi thai gian ¢6 ging xie dinh xu husimg, 46 déc va chu ky eta di Ligu nay bing cach thye hign cde phép do trong cde khong thii gian lign tiép. Khong ‘2idng nh cée phurong phap dura trén vige quan sit cde miu ngiu nhién, mé hinh dr iso chudi thoi pian dya tn cde gid ti lign tgp dai dign cho ede phép do lin tgp duge thye hign trong céc khoang thoi gian cach déu nhau (hang thing, hing quy hoac hing nim). Khi mg mau cin due tht lip, ede me hinh chu th gian sé tao ra ce di-don vé xu ning tuomg li cho chub thi gan sip ti Mang ng-ron nhin tao (Actificial Neural Networks = ANN) di duge sit dung 4 dt bio dt Ligu chudi thei gian trong hon hai thip ky’ qua, Mot trong nhitag de diém ign ANN thu hit niu st quan tim Hs inh xdp xi him cia nd kh ng dn x9 br him phi tuyn nio inh tuyén tinh wong ede digu kign nt dinh, Tuy nhién, ANN thigu mot quy tinh chun kh xy dymg me hinh ma chi yu vin da trén kind nighigm di vi timg vin 48 cu thé. Do ds, vige xiy dying mit ANN tin cay thrmg Tign quan dén vige Iya chon mét lrgng lén eée tham so thye nghiém, nhir: s6 dom vi vo, sb no-ron dn, sb no-ron ra, bed he, vi debit i ph thuse vio dig, ‘rong 10 nim tr Tai diy, o6 Kd niu nghign cfu ién quan d&n vige king dung ce 1m hin ANN vio dy bao nu clu du eh cya trén ci liu chuGi thi gan. Da so cic nighién eis nly xem xéttimg trutmg hop di lig ev thé, nue di bio nu ed du lich «nme a pong [1211318] hay dn at qude pia [5](6(718](91 10), de bo a clu qua dém ti ee oo so Iu ti [7I[11], ~ Khong e6 khing dink nio vé m6 hinh ANN no fa tht nbit cho moi trang hep [13}: ahumg ANN vii bo ny, ching t6i nghign cia xdy dung md hinh mang no du lich dén digm dén Quang Binh. Cong nh da sé ie nghién ciu tase diy, ba ms hinh ANN, gm mang perceptron da lop (Multi-layer Perceptron - MLP), him xuyén ‘tm ea sé (Radial Basis Funetion ~ RBF) vi mang hi quy Elman (Elman Network - ELN), duge xiy dng, m6 hin hod va thir nghigm vi dt igu véIuomg,du khich dén (Quang Binh ti 01/2017 dén 12/2019. Két qui md phong 8 chi a higu qua dy bao eta ccc m6 hinh ANN va qua 46 cc tiém ning kh eiia ANN sé duge phan tich ‘Bong gép chinh ca bai bao bao gom: MG hin hos bai ton de bo da tr ctu chudi th gian, gdm ce bude pin tich vai chuyén d6i dir ligu duge trinh bay chi ti¢t trong giai dogn tién xtr ly dit ligu + Xiy dymg ce ms hinh mang MLP, RBF vi ELN cho vie vige dy bio; * Xay dung cae kich ban mé phong thir nghiém véi cfc vée-to du vio khéc nhaw n lap dn dusge phan tich va khio sit. Tir 46 chi ra duce due thi nahi, 88 Jogi mang no-ton pis hap choc bio die trie: igu chudi thoi gian khong e6[Noi dung tgp theo cia bai bio bao gam ce mye sau: Mye 2 tom luge va inh gid ce nighién eins lign quan, trong dé tp trang vio cae mi hinh dng dang mang ne-ron Vio dr bao nhu edu du ch. Trén ea sc phn tich, Me 3 mé ta chi tit ee bie xa dumg mang no-ron cho bai ton dy béo nhu edu du lich, bao gém: phin tich, chuai ‘hoa va chuin bj dit ligu cho vige hun luygn va xy dymg ba mé hinh mang MLP, BF vi ELN cho dy bio nu edu du khich dn Quing Binh. Cie phin ich vé higu qua du bio duge mi ta & Mue 4, Cudi cing, két hin duge tinh biy trong Mue 5 2 Céenghién edu lign quan Di cd nhidu nghiém ei ign quan dén vige xy dmg m6 hinh va tg dung ANN vo dbo nhu clu du lich, Cée mi hinh ANN durge dé xudt e6 thé Ii m@ hinh mang no- ron don, nhw MLP, RBF, ELN, ..., hoe mé hinh két hp, nhw két hop gi thu di truybn vii mang no-ron tong vige xie din s8 no-ron én ti uu (12](13) hay kt bop Box-fenkins vi mang no-ron trong vie tinh ting két qua diy bio thinh phin 6 trong sé [14], Trong bai bio niy, ching ti ehi tip trang vio nh gid ede mb hin ANN dom khi img dng vio dy bio nu elu du ich, Sau dy li tom luge ce dh gis v8 {ing dung ANN trong do nhu clu du fc trong 10 nm tn li dy, ‘rong [2], Ferandes vi e6ng sy dt phn tch Kh ning can tanh ea diém aén da lich dva tn dy béo nu edu du Khich dén bing st dung phrong phip mang MLP. Nghién ciru nay tap trang vio dir ligu ve lugng khich qua dém hang thing tai cic ich san hai Khu vue mién Bic vi Trung eta BS Bio Nha. Két qua thge nghiém cho thiy md hinh ANN cho d6 chinh xée dt blo eno. Ti 4 cdc tie gia ny Khuyen cio phuong phip ANN nén duge sit dung cho dit ligu chudi thei gian phi tuyén, Nghign ettu cua Lin, Chen va Lee [5] ¢6 ging xay dig m6 hinh du bio vé Iemg du hich dén Dai Loan bing cich sit dung phuong plkip ARIMA (auloregressive Imegrated moving average), ANN vii MARS (multivariate adaptive regression spline). Bé dnb gi tinh phi hop cia ede mé hin duge a aust, tp di ligu vé da Khich dén Dai Loan hing thing due sir dung. Két qui phin tch cho thy ARIMA ‘uot tr hom so wi ANN vi MARS dia tén RMSE (root mean square error), MAD (mean absolute error) vat MAPE (mean absolute percent error) ong dr bio dlc ‘Trong nghién eit cia Teixeira vi Femandes [15], mang FENN (feedjorward neural network), mang, CENN (cascade forward neural network) vi mang RN (recurrent neural network) duage xem xét vi so sinh. Bau vo eta cde ANN Ii lugmg khich dén ciia 12 thing trée d6 vi hai du vio khic ka nm vi thing trong nim, Ba md hinh ‘mang ny cho MAPE ti 4% dén 6%, trong 46 ki tie FFNN hoat dng 1 nha én cca tp dit ligu xic thu (validation) va tap dit ligu kiém tra (test) voi sai s6 4.2%. Caveria, Monte va Torea [3] so sinh higu qua cia ba loa kin te ANN gdm MLP, BF va ELN. Thc nghifm dug lip di ip Ii vi sb don vj vio vo thay di, Di gu ‘hye nam lg. da khich te nigu qude ga &én Catalonia, Ty Ban Nha enim2001 dén 2012. KE qua thye nghigm cho thy RBF va MLP host déng t6t hon mang FELN, trong 46 RBF cho kha ning ds bdo tS nhit, Két qua hae nghigm eting cho thy ing s$ don vi vio lin hom thi k&t qui dy bao duge ci thign;digu niy cho thiy tim ‘quan trong cia viée ting kich thutie d6i voi dy bao dai han. Trong [1], Cogureu va Kukrer co ging xic dinh phuong phap dy bio mang lai higu sult tt nbdt khi so sinh gita MLP, RBF vi GRNN (generalized regression neural network) 48 dy bio nu eéu du Fich th bign hing thing dn Lemir, Tha Nhi Ky Neghign ciu di sie dyng tng sé gt du khch tin bién nede ngodi kim thuse do nha cl du lich tu bién tong nude va ngng du khvch tu bién hig thing d&n ai cdg du lich 1m thing 1/2005 dn 12/2013, Két qua thye nghigm cho thay RBF vot ti thm MLP vi GRNN vé d3 chinh xie bio, ‘Nghién cia ca Teixeira va Fernandes [4] khao sét mét s6 kién triic khde nhau cla MLP vii 4 6, 8 nit in trong dy bio nhu clu du lich dén Cape Verde. Vi s6 don vi vito I 12 thing lign igp vi fe kign tie véis6 nit én Khe nau duge thir nghigm, higu sult dy bio trong cic Lin di nghigm 43 duoe cai tiga véi gid tj MRE = 7.3 % ‘hg s6 tuong quan Pearson = 0.92 Melda Akin [6] xem xét ba mé hinh SARIMA (Seasonal ARIMA - SARIMA), SVR (Support Vector Regression) vi MLP va 161 wu ha ee tham 36 ela ching ong di bio nhu chu du khich qude t dé Tho Nh¥ KJ. Dua tn két qua thyc nghigm, tic pid 43d suit mt m6 hinh edy quy&t dinh dé xde dinh eich Iva chen me hinh dy bio, Constantino, Fernandes va Teixeira [7] sir dung m6 hinh ANN dé mé hinh héa va dye tbo nhu cdu du ich dé Mozambique tr 1/2004 dn 12/2013, Nhu edu du ich tong nghin ci ny li 6 lngng khich ha tri qua dém tai cc hich san én tt Nam Phi, oa Kj, Dio Nha vb An. M&t m6 hin (tnt dt duge tim thy wi MAPE dat 6.5% vib sb trong quan Pearson dat 069%. ‘rong nghién cru cia Cankurt vi Subasi (8], MLR (Muli-ayer Regression), MLP vi SVR duge sir dung dé thy hign du bio na eéu du ieh dén Tho Nh Ky. Khie vi trong (6), nghién cit nay d& xudt m6 hinh MLR véi a ligu 1 haong du khich dé ‘Tho Nhi Ky hang thang (tir 1/1996 dén 12/2013). Higu suat dy bio durgc so sinh dya trén RAE (relative absolute error) vi RRSE (Root Relative Squared Error) vi cho thy ring SVR o6 higu sult tt nbit, voi RAE = 12,3496 va RRSE = 14,02%. ‘rong [11}, Panagopoulos vi Nika khio sit vt din gif ede m6 hinh dy bio tuyen tinh va phi tuyén dva én ANN v8 nhu ebu du fh Iuu ti, DE de bio higu qui, ee mé hinh MLP, SVR vi LR (Linear Regression) dugc sit dung véi hai tap dit ligu Li céng suit sir dang va sé ong khich lu tri qua dém ti cae khich sano ving phia Tiy Hy Lap. Dé chin xée trong d&i cia MLP via SVR duge so sin véi LR. Thye nighigm cho thay MLP vai SVR cho kit qui dbo tat hom LR wi sai sb debi no.‘Mye dich cia Mavrommati va Karakitsiou [9] la nghién ciu kha nang img dung va higu sult eda m6 hint, ANN vi SVM (Support Vector Machin) trong dt bio nh cd du ich cia Hy Lap dbi vi du Khich rc nude Khng thude chiu Au vi cée nade chi Au khong sit dung dng Euro, Di igu chudi dh gian duge thu thip tie nfm 1990 dén 2015, Két qui dhve nghiém cho thly higu suit cia cée phuong phip niy ‘ng Ki big ding ké. Khong e6 phuemg php no i tit ht cho moi bp di Hig Gregorié va Baldigara [10] thiet ké m$t ANN dé dyr bio so hong du khach Bite dén Croatia Ki xem xé inh mia vy cia dig the nghigm. Sw higndign eda ce yu 15 mia vy e6 tie ddng quyét diab nh elu du lich dye phan tich, Nehign ci da én phan tich mita vy va ANN duge sir dung dé mé ta hinh vi cita dong du khach Dire den Croatia, Cie kign tc ANN Klien due thi nghiém: dj chinh xe dbo vi higu suit m6 hin duge phin ich da trén MAPE. K&t qua thve nghiém va phn tch cho thiy MAPE dat dua li 1,601% chieng 1 48 chinh xée cba dbo me hin Kha cao. ‘Tom Iai, ede nghign eeu trén déu 6 ging mé hinh hod bai toin du bao nhu ey du lich dva trén di ligu chudi thei gian vi xy dung cc mG hinh ANN ke nhau 48 thi nghigm vi dinh gié khi ning dy béo cia ching. Khong e6 mo hinh ANN nio Ii tit shit dbi vi tht cd ei bd dl fig Tuy nhign, mot ty If Khé én ee nghién ctu eho ing mang MLP va RBF kha ning dr bio chin xc Kh cao so v6 cc mi hinh Khic: ‘Nhu nghign ei tp une vio 3 lai mang MLP, RBF vi ELN dé dh wi higu qui dbo eta ching di vii ee tig hyp du khich dén tai ee dia phuong Khe nhaw Do 46, ching (i ip te nghign eu higu qui dy bio eda ba mé hinh mang MLP, BF vi ELN dye bo nhu clu du khsch dén wi Quang Binh trong bai bio ni 3 Mé hinh héa mang no ron cho dy béo nhu cau du lich 3.41 Dit ligu nhu cau du lich duge sir dung, Di Higu nhu edu du lich due sir dung trong nghién ei niy ka mg du Khich dn Quang Binh tithing 1/2017 déo, 12/2019 die tech xult te wang thong tin cba Se ‘Du lich Quang Binh [16]. Thue té, dit ligu du lich cia diém dén nay trade nim 2017. (cir nim 1998) cing 43 due théng ke, mg chi yéu theo nm nén khong phi hep cho vige dr bio theo thing: hon nf, do anh omg eia dich bgala Covid vio di nim 2020 va gid han di ai nén A igu chia nim 2020 o6 yt gidm bat thudmg khong thé st yng duye. Hinh 1 m6 ti dt figu du khich én Quing Binh tr thing 1/2017 dén 12/2019, rong dé tinh thoi vu thé hign chu kj theo nim; digu nay gor ¥ ring vee-r du vo (5 did thi pian cia miu dt igunén fb 6 hoe 12 thing ‘rong bai vide nly, ching ti chon tp dl figu tng luong khich dén Quing Binh vi chia né than hai phn: ei igu hun Iuyn va ei igu kiém tra. Nhu da s6 ed nghign citu tne diy, tip dt figu hun luygn ehiém da 36 (667%) gdm 24 miu twang ddvomg wii s ligu du khich dén Quang Binh tr thing 12017 dén thing 12/2018 ding 48 hun luyén mang; tap dit ligu kiém tra (33,33%) dling dé inh gid 46 chinh xée cha ‘mang gm 12 mau twong duomg vi 12 thing ebm li (ti 1/2019 dén 12/2019),6 ign hc i ua lg ogme h g Bh inh 1. Phin bd ligu du khich dén Quing Binh te thing 1/2017 én thing 12/2019 3.2 Chuan hoa di tigu ANN thuiing pit huy higu qua di vi dt ligu dt dye chudn ha. Vige sit dung dt liga gc thé Lim chim sit i ty khi hun luygn mang noron, nén di iu ein phi dye chuin héa dé eai thign 45 chinh xi, tbe dw va higu qua cia bude hun Juygn mang, Trong ede phuromg phip chun ha dP liga, plug php chia ty 1€ duge sit dung pho bién nbit, Phuong phip chia 1g chuyén dt ligu gbe vio mt phar Vi cau thé, nh [-1, 1] hay [0,1]. Trong bai bo niy, dt ligu ge due chuyén vo pham ‘vi (0, 1] boi Céng thite (1): a trong db iwi thet, xan dt nbd ht, xu Km nt one tp Tig, 1 git hn 33 Chuiin bj di ligu cho hud luygn ANN dug sit dang 48 dy bo xu hung tuog lai cia chu thi gian te ede gi tx. Xipns«- % thi gm hign tg (hoi digm 0). Digw nay c6 nghia la gti de ‘io ela ith dm 1d dug ish Bing Cong thie 2) X= SG. ) @ trong 46 2 a véests ea p gi tr x bi tim tr tinh tir th dim 1. Thong thug d diye dt bing 1, nén him f 8 dy bio si isp theo ctx. Tip theo, edie ma trin dit ligu khite nhau duge tao cho vige hun luygn va kiém tra trén eo sb bude thoi gian lim tr (p)tzong ing wi sb dom vi vio vi sb de bio (@) ‘emg img wi s6 naron ra cia ANN. Dé minh hoa cho trrmg hop ANN cé 4 dem vi ‘vio vi mot no-ron ra, Hinh 2 m6 ti cfu tri ea ma trin di igu Wi p = 4 teong img ‘i ce me th gian (thing) vi 8 de bao gi tj or mde th gian tip 6 (a= 1)Mvariga — ciéwivie et quire inh 2. Cau tric ma tend gu tung img vi mang no-ron c6 4 dom vi vio vt 3.4 Tyo tp dérligu hudn luyén va tip dif ligu kiém tra ‘Trong phuong phip dy bio da tein ANN, dit ligu thuimg durge chia thin hai tip: dtr liga busin luyén (raining) vcd Tg kiém ta (es), Tap a Tg hun luyén dung sit dung trong giai doan hudn luygn mang, trong dé trong s6 duge ditu chinh én ea sit ie pid tr vio cia ede mau dit ligu hua Iuyén nhim giam thicw loi (su khée big) git bt qua ra (outpus) thye té so véi mue tiéu (arget), Qui trinh Inn luyén s@ ding Khi [i khing cin ding ké ta hoge nho hom mét ngwaing cho truse. Tép di igu kiém tra dduve sit dung dé we tinh sai sé eta kha nding khdi quit hia elia ANN, hing e8 quy tie chinh xée ndo v8 kich thuse ti wu trong vige phi ehia bai ip dt liga niy, mic dit da s6 dng ¥ ring tip hun luyga phi Kim bom tip kiém ta, Trong nghién ers nay, di liga duge tich nbue sav: hong dv khich dén tr thing 1/2017 an thing 122018 duge sir dung kim tp di liu hud luya (66,679) va lung du ki «én tr 1/2019 dén 12/2019 dag sir dung lam tp dit ligu kiém tra (33,3386) 38 Xay dung mang no-ron cho vige dy bio ANN Hi hg thing phn tin va song song, gdm akibu dom vj xi I dom gién © Kh ‘ing tinh toa nb ede him toén boc, ma trong hiw hét cic tam hop Ui phi tuyen Cite do vi xt 1 Kat ni theo nhidw ech Khe nhau 4 tgo én ce md hinh ANN Khe nhau [17]. ANN c6 kh nang hoc théng qua vige dp dung mt phuong php huin Juygn. Dya tn ket qua hoe duge, ANN c6 khi ning khii quit héa thing qua vige d3 suit gti phip cho nhing trang hop chia ¢6 dip an hin hw nio. Trong bai bio ny, bam hinh ANN duge xem xe, ghm: MLP, RBF vi ELN, a) Mang perceptron da lop. Mang perceptron da ip (MLP) bao gm ete no-ron duge sip xép thinh nigu lip, trong d6 tin hig vr div vio duge truyén qua timg lop cia mang. Nhu duge m6 ti tong Hinh 2(a), mang MLP 2 lip vii ede ket nd mt chigu lap vio dén Kp dv tir Lop anda lop ra; Khng 06 K&L ndi gta ede no-ron tong cig lip. MLP li mot sign tric inh host nhit vé kh nding img ding va doe str dung trong nhieu bai ton, nnhur: nhin dang miu, digu khién te dng, die béo dit ligu chudi thi gian, tdi ara hoa(Qué trnh hun lnyén MLP bao gm vige dig chin lign tye trong sign Kt gta cic swson dé tim rap tong sb sao cho 6 the dn xa tt ah ee sign mong mubn Phuong php hun luygn phd bién nhit di voi MLP ta ti thigu hd. gradient bing thuattosn lan truyén ngwoe (baeKpropagation) [17]. Cu thé, tin higu Idi eta no-ronj trong Hin kip ¢duge thye hign bei Cng thie (3): (= d,0-¥,0. o trong 49 ef) 1 1, 0H mye tigu mong muudn (anger vay 1a Kt qua hig thd cia mang ape tO ‘2 as, . — (os tce meses a Hinh 3. Kién trite cdc mang MLP, RBF vit ELN_ ‘Sau dé, quy tie cp nbit trong sb i ket dug thye hign bat Cng thie (4): EO), ae weeh=wro n= “ trong 46 wi(2) li trong sb ign kSt vio # cia no-ron j cia Lop m trong lan Hip 1 91. ‘6 d@ hun lnyn wa G£(0 la dgo him réng ea him 11 EO. “Thudt ton hun luyga bao gm hai gai doan. Ban dbu, dl tigu vio duge truyén qua ‘mang dé thu drge ket qua ra hign tha (0. Gi tr ny sau dé dupe so sinh voi git ‘mye tigu d)(0) dé tinh toain Idi e(). Trong burde hai, 161 duge truyén ng Iai tie lop ra dn lip vio (lan truyén nguge) dé digu chinh trong sé cia ede ign ket, Bing cic nly, sed ee trong sb lin ket duye du chinh theo quy tie sia Ii dl duge gi dinh, dé két qua ra cia mang rong ln ip sau ga véi mye tu hom (17) b) Mang RBF hing gidng nh MLP, mang RBF chi e® hai lip: lop én vi lip ra, Nh me i trong Hinh 2(b), kién tric mang REF tong ty vii mang MLP 2 lip, nhung Khe bigt v8 che ning eia eée no-ron lip an, Cy thé, him kich hoat cia ee no-ron an déu dratrén tinh chat xuyén tim [17], trong dé méi no-ron dn sé xéc dinh tam cia cée dit ligu vo tuum ty (phn b6 gn nhau trong khng gian vio). MGt trong nf him kich hat duge sir dung nhigu nhit cho no-ron lp an i him Gaussian nb COng thie (5) oe 6) trong 46. i if tri miu vio, l tim eta Gaussian va o” 1 ban kinh eta n6. Vie huin luygn RBFs duge thye hign rong hai gai dogn. Dau ign, rong s8 ta kip Jin duge tinh ton bing eich xée dinh eée tim dya tn phan ba cia tip di ligu vio. Cc dt gu phn b8 “gin nhau” dige xem thube vé mgt cum mi tim ela cum 46 8 duge tinh ton da trén him Gaussian nr Cong thie (3). Tigp 6, trong s6 ea op ra dye digu chinh theo eich hudn lyn ob giém sit tuomg te nite mang MLP [19 © Mang ELN Mang Elman (ELN) li mt kign tric 8 quy dy tén mang MLP do L. Elman d uit [18]. Mang ELN chia lop vio thinh hai phn: phin du tina gbm ee dom vi vio thing thug va phn thi hai, o6 tn goi 1a dam vi ng enh, bao gém cée dl ra cha Jp an dye dat Ji thin iu vio (48 guy), nhu trong Hinh 2(6). Vi ee dom vi ni cdnh ela mang ELN duge xem li dm vi vio, nén ching etng tong sb ln ket ‘va 06 thé duge di¢u chinh bang thuat todn lan truyén nguge theo théi gian. Trong da sé cai dit, phign bin lan truyén nguge duge cit lit theo thoi gian to thinh ting Kbosing é. Qui tinh buin luygn mang Ekman twong ( wi mang MLP vi vige dibu chinh rong ss&dimg Khi “st biénthién trong s6” ea mang tr nn Gn in [17] 4.6 Phucomg thir dinh gi két qua de béo kha nhibu phuxmg thie inh gi 49 chin xe cia cic’ m hin dy bio, tong 4 bn phomg thie dbo sa the doe itd Sai 6 binh phrong trung binh (mean squared error - MSE) do dé lg binh phuromg trang binh cua ede gi tr dbo. MSE nhin manh ring tng sai sé dy bio tén thy t bj anh bung niu boi sai sd em rgng 1, nhimg khong cung edp bt ky tung no ‘8 hung ea Iai tng thé [19]. MSE cage tinh bx Cong hie (6). iy © 1 MSE 420 Sai 8 tuyét di tung binh (mean absolute error ~ MAE) do 46 lich tuyét di rung binh eda cde gid ti dr bio so wi gi tri ban ddu, MAE cho thiy mite d@ eta 15 ting thé xay ra do dr bio, nhimg cing khing cung cp bit ky ¥ tring nio vé husng eta [21]. Phuemg tinh cla phuomg thie ny duge chi ra rong Céng the (7).MAE babs 2 5 ¢ Sai sb phn trim ruy@t déi trang binh (mean absolute percentage error = MAPE) khong phy thuge vio quy m6 do iuém nén né li mt Iya ehon pho bign trong cae bai tofin di bio, die bigt la dua trén ANN [21]. Né doe din nghia bai Céng thite (8) be, ware 2S i Can bie hai cia sai s6 binh phurong trung binh (root mean square error - RMSE) dupe dinh nghia la 45 Igch chun cia cde sai s6 gite gid tr mue tiéu va gid ti dit ddodn [21]. RMSE dom gin li cin bie hai ela MSE nén duge tinh bing Cong thie (9). 100 ® ° 4 Mé phéng va phan tich két qua Ching 6 st dung Matlab 20106 d2 ms phing 3 ms hinh MLP, RBF vit ELN, véi dt tiga vé tong lvong du kil hing thing dén Quang Binh (i 1/2017 adn 12/2019). Dt Jigu nay duge trich xuat tir trang théng tin cua So du lich Quang Binh [16]. Cac cai dt dage tne hign tn my PC vi cd hinh 24 GHz Intel Core 2 CPU, 2G RAM. Ditu hig hoi tu ela qué tinh hun ayn dag KEt hap da engi ti tid ea MSE vi nung sb ving lp ti da. Trong cic cai jt niy, gi tr ti thigw MSE vi nung s6 ving lp 15 da diye thie lp ki 0.005 vi 10,000, Thiet, khd ob thé thit lip chinh xie duge ci ngudng niy ma hhu het 1 da tén kinh nghigwn, voi niu Kin chay thir kha nha dé xe dink gif tej ngutmg phit hop nit. Ching t6i chon ngwtng MSE kh nhs nhdim kidm tra dein xde dy bio, nbung eng King cbé 36 vOng Kp hu li diéu kign dimg dé phong trrémg hop cic ANN Khéng thé hoi ty drge véi gid tri ngutmg MSE duye tht Ip. Hon na, dod igu hud Tuya 6 hich thude Kh rho vi dt duge chun hoa v8 khosing (0,1), nén hit lip gi te ngudng nho dBi vi MSE va nguzng ving hun luygn nh trén Iie hig C6 2 ign trie mang no-ron duge thie nzhigm cho mi logi mang MLP, RBF vi ELN ah ANN(63:1) va ANN(12:6:1, tt Hi ign tre o6 6 (hoe 12) dam vi vio, 3 (hose 6) novron an vi 1 no-ron ra. Nhu vay sé c6 hai loai ma tran dit ligu hun Juyén va idm ua khie nau duge xy ding, nh mi ta tong Hinh 4, Thye té cde ign tric ‘mang ke nba etng e6 thé doe thi nghigm, nhimg dBi vi dt ligu nu ef du lich thi vige chon s6digm thi gian 8 ty eid ri du vo li 6 hay 12 thing ln te a phi hp vi tinh mia vy cia nhw clu du lich lwin tanta, me it Khdng thé hign 1 ring ‘trong dit ligu du lich Quéing Binh (Hinh 1).NMdudoifa —Gitivio——Ktquira dude Gitta inh 4. Ma tn dt igucho ec kién tric ANN(63:1) vi YNNCI26:1) Két qui dy bio v8 lung du khich di véi dt Tiga kiém tra eta ee mang ne-xon MLP, RBF vi ELN li duge chi ra trong Hinh (a) vi Hinh 4), twong img wi 2 kid trie mang no-ronkhie nhaw li ANN(G:3:1) vi ANN(12:3:1). RO rn, két qu dy io cia mang RBF li tigm cin kha gin vii luong du khch a thge 18 (targen), di véi cd hai kign tric ANN(6:3:1) va. ANN(2:6:1), trong dé kién tric ANN(12:6:1) cho két qu dg bdo 1 st vi git the (2) Sos dt qu dy boc ch inh ANG) ce thing nim 2018 “nig thine 201 4enthing 22018) (0) Se shh kt gu yo cn ce inh ANN(2:6:1 ci ch ting nim 2039 : Thing thing 1/2018 hing 2/2019) . inh 5, So sin kt qua dbo ct ce ms hinh MLP, ELN va RBF vi gi ri me tg arget trong 2 kién tre ANN(63:1) vi ANN(12:6:1) Khi so sinh dvatén cic gi tri MSE, RMSE, MAE vi MAPE, Két qu ci dt cho thiy ring mang RBF dat duge ede git ti tome img thip bit, de bict wi kigm tr AANN(12:6:1), ah duge chi ra trong Bang 1 K&L qui dt bio nay la phi hop wi ede két qua eta cle nghién ciu rue dy (1](3] trong 46 mang RBF thuimg cho sf tr ye bio chinh xe mht, de bit di voi cic dt Tiga chubi thd gian phi tuyén, Tht, nhw 43 phan tch tong (19), vai Wd eta ce no-ton dn wong mang RBF li thye hign chuyén d6i d lig tr khng gian phi yen2 band v8 khdng gian tun tinh mi @ 46 vige phn lip dt ligu e6 thé duge thye hin int céch tuyén tinh. Day 18 mt inh nang rt de bit eta mang RBF gidp cho n6 ob thé gidi due cic bai toin phi tuyén met cach higu qua nha dy bio dt igu chub thoi sian. Bi wi mang ELN, Ket qua dy bio kém i chi rang edu tre idm kt phn hi cia mang Elman King thé nim bit cde de diém ey thé cia dt ligu chub hi gia, Bain I. So sinh ii dbo ets MLP, ELN va RBF vi 2 kign tric ANN(G:3:1) va ANNG26:1 MLP ELN REF (63:1) (26) 6S1)—— 2G) (A261) MSE 3,825#09 1.595409 943E+09 4,65E+09 MEH 2,19EHO8 RMSE 6079339 39.911,82 9202858 68220,12 3054839 14,802.13 MABE 5407996 3357343, 8020727 59672.59 28.7628 11.827,66 MAPE 1420 8.92 2190163363289 Ki so sinh higu qui dy bdo gta cée kién trie mang, kiém trie ANN(12:6:1) cho két aqua dr bio t6t hom kién tric ANN(G:3:1) didu ny cho thy dr bo dua trén ehudi {hii gian phu thade vio vige xée dinh kieh thu digm Ky thong tin d& im ra quy Init cia dt ligu, Vi i ligu du khich dé Quang Binh 6 thé hign tinh mia vy e6 chu ky theo nim nén vie chon sb diém nhin di ligu 12 thing d® gp ign tie ANN(12:6:1) hige dure quy luitbignthign eda chub thi gian vé nhu clu du Khich tt han so véi ign trie ANN(6:3:1. BS ehinh li Ij do két qua die bo cia kiém trie ANN(L2:6:1) en sit vi gi tr thye «hom, 5 Kétluan Bai bio di thinh eng trong vige m6 hinh hod vi xiy dmg mang no-ron dé dy bio nhu edu du khdch dén Quing Binh. Véi dit liéu 6 dang chudi thoi gian duoc thu thap trong 36 thing, vige chun hod vi chun bj dt fig d3 due phin ich va ms ta chi et cach thye hig Ba ms hinh ANN gdm MLP, ELN vi RBF 3 duge trignkhsi vi hai sign trie ANN(631) vi ANN(L2:6:1) duge xem xét. KEt qua ei dt vai phn ich dB cha hg ne RB 2 ng ib cis nh hn de MSE, RMSE, MAE vi MAPE thip nhat di, Thue t€, eting di e6 nhiéw nghien ctu ding mang no-ron trong dy ba nu cin du ich, hung mi ogi mang noon phat hy higu qu iw ima tp dt igw cu thé va khdngc@ mang no-ron na li hu qua nit trong moi trang hop. Mac dd ligu duge sir dung trong bai bo c6kich the hi nho nhumg gid ti MAPE thu duge la kh b,c 10%, cho thiy 46 chinh xc ki cao eda cde mang no-ron trong dy bo Tigu chudi thi gian [20]. “Thue thé, vige xay dumg mét mang no-ron dé di bo phy thuge vio mdt zomg lim ede tham 38, nu: s8 don vi vio, s8 no ron in, s8 ng-ron ra, tbe dp hoe... Vige nghién citu xiy dmg meng no-ron trong bii bio de bio ehi msi dimg Ii 6 vige chon kin tric da teén phn ch inh mia vu vt Kin nghigm cdi Aft; cic tham sb Khe chia duge khio sit dén, Tuy nin, néu ko sit tit e& cée két hop esa ede tham $6 nd1B tren thi sé c6 mot so long eye ky ln t6 hop cae truémg hop can khio sit. Do 46, edn 6 ce nghién ciu tgp theo nhim xée dinh kién trie ti wu mt eich nhanh chong. ic k&t hop git mang no-ron nhin to. voi gidithujt di ruyén 66 thé Ii mot gia phip khi th cho vige xe dinh kién te i wu dbi vi lp bi ton dr bio da ten dt liga chub hii gian 1M, Cuhadar, L Cogureu, and C. 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O, Fernandes, “Forecasting of a Non-Sessonal Tourism Time Series with ANN,” in Ist Intemational Work-Conference on Time Series (TTISE), 2014, pp. 1~ im Inups:sd quangbinh gov vn! (accessed at 14:00 March 20, 2020), ‘A Shrestha and A. Mahmood, "Review of Deep Learning Algorithms and Architectures,” in IEEE Access, vol. 7, pp. $3040-53065, 2019, doi 10.1109/ACCESS.2019 2912200. man, JL. Finding structure in time. Cogn, Sei. 1990, 14, 199-211. CC. Hamzacebi, “Improving artifical neural networks’ performance in seasonal time series feasting’ Information Sciences 178 (2008), pages: 4550-4359, RK. Klimberg, GP. Sillp, KJ. Boyle and V, Tavva, "Forecasting performance measures ~ what are their practical meaning”, Advances in Business and! Management Forecasting Vol. 7,2010, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, Bingley, pp. 137-147, Application of artificial neural networks to forecasting the tourism demand of Quang Binh Abstract. Accurate forecasting of tourism demand to a destination plays a very important sole in policy advice, planning and strategic formulation of a locality ‘or country. "There are many appreaches to tourism demand forecasting, in which forecasting based on time series data attracts the most attention due to the un- structured nature of this data type. Neural networks have been evaluated as @ special forecasting method suitable for unstructured data although it internal ‘processing is almost inexplicable. This pape investigates the application of ati- Fial neural networks to predict ine series data on tourism demand in Quang Binh, in which three network models of MLP, RBE and ELN are considered With the simulation results obtained, RBF gives the best forecasting resuls, ‘with the values of MSE, RMSE, MAE and MAPE the lowest, compared to the ‘ther two other types of networks. This result further confirms that the nonline- a-te-incaiy spatial ansformation feature made RBF powerful for unsiuc- tured data types Keywords: Tourism demand forecast, time series data, artifical neural net- ‘works, Quang Binh tourism forecast,