High-Probability Conditions

rules and guidelines

 economic calendar
forexfactory.com/calendar

CPI NFP FOMC PCE GDP PPI

engineering liquidity [consolidation profile – lack of follow through]

_amtrades
consolidation

release

manipulation

avoid trading [intraday session] before high impact news release

M T W T F

NFP on FP
ssi N
se st-
Y p o
N

[before] market is likely to be stagnant and lag to price objectives

[during] high impact news events are drivers of volatility
[after] provides opportunity to catch expansion within risk to defined targets

bias and profiles can be framed around planned high impact economic events

allowing [intraday session] trading before solitary 10:00 high impact news
(no entering during or holding through release)
 daily consolidation profile

• speed • range

• displacement • lacking displacement

• directional • equilibrium

avoiding internal consolidated range participation

external range high [buyside liquidity]

daily
_amtrades hourly

external range low [sellside liquidity]

[counter narrative] external liquidity engaged – target range equilibrium

[directional narrative] external liquidity purge – target opposite end of range + expansion continuation

utilize weekly profile and economic calendar to time consolidation breakout after manipulation

engineering liquidity engaging liquidity

low-probability high-probability

internal external
 overnight range expansion
[new york session trading]

_amtrades
daily open
[overnight session]
asia + london
AM session
[8:30]

PM session
[13:00]
volatility injection
[8:30 / 10:00]
no reaction upon news (if any)

reversal - expansion retracement - expansion

 inside day
[trapped order flow]

daily

_amtrades
inside
bar

previous day high and low

[set alert]
internal (high-resistance)
close charts otherwise

internal range
[lacking ≥ H1 PD arrays]
avoid participation

PD array
trapped order flow
 economic calendar
avoid trading [intraday session] before high-impact news

allowing [intraday session] trading before solitary 10:00 high-impact news

(no entering during or holding through release)

non-farm payroll week

monday • tuesday • wednesday london
wednesday new york • thursday • friday before 8:30
friday after 8:30 news release

avoid internal consolidated daily range participation

wait for external range engagement

_amtradesovernight range expansion

avoid AM session participation, seek PM session opportunity

inside day - lacking ≥ H1 PD arrays

avoid trading within previous day range
(set alert at previous day high and low)

no trading outside london or new york session

no trading on bank holidays

no trading half days

personal rules