ENGG 5020 ASSESSMENT 2 – LITERATURE REVIEW

STORMWATER DRAINAGE DESIGN USING RCP 8.5

SCENARIO

Kalp Panchal (110398541)

Panky035@mymail.unisa.edu.au
Master of Engineering Civil and Infrastructure (LMCL)

Submission Date
(03/05/2024)

Supervisor:
Dr. Faisal Ahammed
Literature Review Kalp Panchal - 110398541

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I understand that I can obtain further information on this matter at

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[Kalp Panchal; ID: 110398541]

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Project Introduction
This literature review addresses the adaptation of stormwater drainage systems in South
Australia to increasing rainfall intensities predicted under the RCP 8.5 scenario by 2090.
Analyzing key findings from seminal research papers, it explores modifications to stormwater
infrastructure recommended by the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) guidelines, highlighting
the necessity for integrating Water Sensitive Urban Design (WSUD) technologies. These
enhancements are essential for maintaining functionality in the face of non-stationary
hydrological variables. The review provides a critical synthesis on the resilience of urban
drainage systems, guiding the development of robust stormwater management strategies
amidst evolving climatic conditions.

Literature Review

Literature Regarding Stormwater Drainage Design:

Study – 1:

Researchers Darren Waters, W. Edgar Watt, Jiri Marsalek, and Bruce C. Anderson conducted a
study to determine the impact of a 15% increase in rainfall due to climate change on urban
drainage systems, using PCSWMM 2000 for simulations. They aimed to assess system
performance under new conditions and the efficacy of different adaptation measures to
manage increased peak discharges. The study confirmed that retrofit options like disconnecting
downspouts and increasing storage effectively reduce peak discharge, maintaining system
performance despite heightened rainfall scenarios.

Study – 2:

The research, conducted by Rezaul Chowdhury and Simon Beecham at the University of South
Australia, aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on stormwater drainage design. They
challenged the conventional use of stationary climatic assumptions in infrastructure design,
arguing that changing rainfall patterns due to climate variability affect the reliability of these

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systems. Their methodology involved adapting the Log Pearson Type III distribution to include
time-varying parameters, demonstrating that stationary design assumptions may not be
sufficient in a changing climate. The results indicated a need for revised design guidelines that
incorporate non-stationary hydrological variables to enhance infrastructure resilience against
climate variability.

Study – 3:

The research conducted by Hany F. Abd-Elhamid, Martina Zeleňáková, Zuzana Vranayová, and
Ismail Fathy aimed to evaluate the impact of urban growth on storm water drainage system
design, focusing on how changes in runoff coefficients due to urban development affect
drainage design parameters. Utilizing Storm CAD, Hyfran, and GIS, they analyzed various runoff
coefficients in Dammam, KSA. The study developed an empirical equation for predicting
maximum discharge, which was validated through a case study in South Korea, showing high
accuracy in predicting discharge across different catchments. Results indicated that increasing
runoff coefficients due to urban growth increases outfall discharge, velocity, and construction
costs, while decreasing lag time.

Literature Regarding Climate Change in Australia:

Study – 1:

The research in the paper "Estimating climate change impact on runoff across southeast
Australia: Method, results, and implications" was conducted by F. H. S. Chiew and colleagues.
The aim was to model the impact of climate change on runoff in southeast Australia using a
conceptual rainfall-runoff model, SIMHYD, informed by 15 global climate models (GCMs). The
model simulated the effects of a 0.9°C increase in global temperature, modifying rainfall and
evapotranspiration patterns. Results indicated a potential decrease in runoff across the region,
though there was significant uncertainty, with projections ranging from a 17% decrease to a 7%
increase in mean annual runoff. The study highlighted the robustness of their modeling
approach for estimating climate impacts on runoff.

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Study – 2:

The research was conducted by Solomon Mulugeta from Dire Dawa University, Ethiopia, and Ali
Morad Hassanli from the University of South Australia. They aimed to assess the impact of
climate change on climatic variables and surface runoff from Myponga Reservoir Catchment,
South Australia. They utilized six global climate models and four hydrological models to
compare and select the most accurate for simulating observed climates and runoff. Their
findings indicated that by the 2030s, under various emission scenarios, average annual
evapotranspiration would increase while average annual rainfall would decrease. Runoff
patterns varied across models and scenarios, showing both potential increases and decreases.

Study – 3:

The research was conducted by Don McFarlane, Richard George, John Ruprecht, Steve Charles,
and Geoff Hodgson. It aimed to understand the hydrological responses to climate change in
Southwest Australia, focusing on runoff and groundwater levels. The study used historical data
and climate projections to analyze trends and make future predictions. Results indicated a
significant drying trend with decreased runoff and groundwater levels, suggesting a need for
adjustments in water resource management and planning for the region.

Study – 4:

The research was conducted by Aainaa Hatin Ahmad Tarmizi, Siti Nazahiyah Rahmat, Ahmad
Tarmizi Abd Karim, and Nurul Nadrah Aqilah Tukimat from University Tun Hussein Onn Malaysia
and University Malaysia Pahang. The aim was to review climate change’s impacts on rainfall and
extreme weather events. They used numerical models like General Circulation Models (GCMs)
and methods such as statistical and dynamical downscaling to simulate climate responses to
increased greenhouse gases. The findings suggest that statistical downscaling is widely used

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and effective for projecting climate variables in Malaysia, providing reliable climate projections
especially for rainfall.

Literature Regarding RCP 8.5:

Study – 1:

The research was conducted by Muhammad Usman and colleagues, aimed at assessing climate
change impacts on streamflow in central Australia's Cooper Creek-Bulloo River Basin using a
modified HBV hydrological model and selected GCMs. The study involved calibration and
validation of the model, showing that future mean annual precipitation and streamflow are
projected to decrease under various climate scenarios, impacting water management and
ecosystem productivity.

Study – 2:

The research was conducted by Raktima Dey, Sophie C. Lewis, Julie M. Arblaster, and Nerilie J.
Abram, based in various institutions across Australia and the U.S. The aim was to review
changes in Australia's rainfall patterns, focusing on past century trends and future projections.
They reviewed observational records and climate models to assess mean and extreme rainfall
changes, identifying trends and predicting future shifts. The study found decreasing rainfall in
the southwest and southeast but increasing trends in the northwest of Australia. The research
highlights significant gaps in understanding rainfall trends and projections, suggesting avenues
for further study.

Study – 3:

The research in the provided document was conducted by Surendra P. Rauniyar and Scott B.
Power. They aimed to investigate rainfall variability and changes in three sub-regions of
Victoria, Australia. Utilizing historical rainfall data and CMIP5 models under various scenarios,
they assessed the impact of external forcing on observed rainfall trends. Their findings suggest
that external forcing, including anthropogenic influences, contributed significantly to the
observed decline in rainfall during the 1997-2018 period compared to historical averages from
1900-1959.

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Knowledge Gap
Stormwater Drainage Design:

The common knowledge gap across the studies on stormwater drainage design concerns the
need for methodologies that incorporate non-stationary climatic conditions and urban growth
impacts. Current designs fail to account for increasing rainfall intensities and urbanization
effects, highlighting the necessity for new tools and adaptive strategies to ensure the resilience
of drainage systems against future climatic uncertainties and changing urban landscapes.

Climate change:

The common knowledge gap identified in the studies is the uncertainty and variability of
climate projections from Global Climate Models (GCMs). This impacts the accuracy of predicting
future climate conditions, particularly regarding temperature, rainfall, and runoff. Challenges
include the selection of suitable GCMs, the need for effective downscaling methods to improve
local relevance, and the calibration of hydrological models to assess impacts on water resource
management accurately.

RCP8.5:

The common knowledge gaps across studies on RCP 8.5 scenarios include the insufficient
accuracy of climate models, particularly at regional scales, and their ability to predict extreme
weather events. There's also a need for better understanding of regional rainfall variability and
hydrological impacts. Furthermore, improvements in downscaling techniques are essential to
enhance the usability of climate model outputs for local predictions and water resources
management.

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References
 WATERS, D., WATT, W. E., MARSALEK, J., & ANDERSON, B. C. (2003). Adaptation of a
Storm Drainage System to Accommodate Increased Rainfall Resulting from Climate
Change. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 46(5), 755–770.
https://doi.org/10.1080/0964056032000138472

 Chowdhury, R., & Beecham, S. (2011). Stormwater drainage design under climate
change and variability conditions. Proceedings of 34th World Congress of the
International Association for Hydro- Environment Research and Engineering: 33rd
Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium and 10th Conference on Hydraulics in
Water Engineering.

 Abd-Elhamid, H. F., Zeleňáková, M., Vranayová, Z., & Fathy, I. (2020). Evaluating the
Impact of Urban Growth on the Design of Storm Water Drainage Systems. Water (Basel),
12(6), 1572-. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061572

 Mulugeta, S., & Hassanli, A. M. (2023). Impact of Climate Change on Surface Runoff for
Myponga Reservoir Catchment in South Australia, Australia. International Journal of
Environment and Climate Change, 13(9), 1579-1591 -
https://doi.org/10.9734/ijecc/2023/v13i92390

 McFarlane, D., George, R. I. C. H. A. R. D., Ruprecht, J. O. H. N., Charles, S., & Hodgson, G.
(2020). Runoff and groundwater responses to climate change in Southwest
Australia. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 103(1), 9-27.

 Tarmizi, A. H. A. (2019). Climate change and its impact on rainfall. International Journal
of Integrated Engineering, 11(1) - https://doi.org/10.30880/ijie.2019.11.01.020

 Usman, M., Ndehedehe, C. E., Farah, H., & Manzanas, R. (2021). Impacts of climate
change on the streamflow of a large river basin in the Australian tropics using optimally
selected climate model outputs. Journal of Cleaner Production, 315, 128091.

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 Dey, R., Lewis, S. C., Arblaster, J. M., & Abram, N. J. (2019). A review of past and
projected changes in Australia’s rainfall. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews. Climate
Change, 10(3), e577-n/a. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.577

 Rauniyar, S. P., & Power, S. B. (2023). Past and future rainfall change in sub-regions of
Victoria, Australia. Climatic Change, 176(7), 92-. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-
03562-9

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Literature Review Matrix Template:

Author/ Title Scope/ Theory Methodol Analysis, Conclusion Significanc Gaps
Date Research ogy Results, s e and the
Questions Findings implicatio
n for
future
research
and
practice
Darren Adaptation Modelling The study The disconnec Implemen These lack of
Waters, of a Storm the impact utilized researcher ting ting adaption detailed,
W. Edgar Drainage of climate PCSWMM s used the downspou targeted techniques localized
Watt, Jiri System to change on 2000 to PCSWMM ts and adaptation to assessmen
Accommo urban evaluate 2000 increasing strategies, preserve ts of how
Marsalek,
date drainage how a 15% hydrologic storage such as the various
and Bruce Increased systems increase in al model capacity, disconnec effectivene adaptation
C. Rainfall and rainfall to simulate effectively ting ss of the measures,
Anderson Resulting analysis due to the impact reduced downspou stormwate such as
from using climate of a peak ts and r increasing
Climate PCSWMM change projected discharges enhancing manageme storage
Change 2000 would 15% and storage in nt system capacity
impact an increase in managed urban amid and
urban rainfall runoff catchment increased disconnec
drainage intensity volumes s, is crucial rainfall ting
system in on an for from downspou
Southern urban maintainin climate ts
Ontario catchment g the change.
and and efficacy of
assessed evaluated stormwate
various the r
adaptation effectivene manageme
strategies ss of nt systems
like various in the face
disconnec adaptation of
ting measures intensified
downspou in rainfall
ts and managing due to
increasing the climate
storage to increased change.
mitigate runoff and
these peak
effects. discharges.
Rezaul Stormwate revising Incorporati adapting Traditional Update Adoption lack of
Chowdhur r Drainage stormwate ng time- the Log stormwate stormwate of flexible accounting

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y and Design r drainage varying Pearson r systems r design design for non-
Simon under design climatic Type III are not guidelines standards stationary
Beecham Climate methods parameter distributio equipped to include that climatic
Change to include s into n to to handle considerati anticipate conditions
and non- stormwate account the ons of climate in
Variability stationary r design, for time- changing climate trends traditional
Conditions climatic such as varying patterns of change stormwate
conditions changes in location extreme and r drainage
and adapt rainfall and scale rainfall variability design.
to climate intensity parameter caused by
change and s, climate
impacts. frequency analyzing change
due to the impact
climate of non-
change, stationariti
enhances es in
the rainfall
resilience data on
and stormwate
effectivene r
ss of infrastruct
infrastruct ure design.
ure.

Surendra Past and Analyzing External Analyzing External The need The impact In
P. Rauniyar future past and climate historical climate for of external understan
and Scott rainfall predicting forcings, rainfall forcings, considerin climate ding how
B. Power change in future such as data, including g external factors on external
sub-region rainfall greenhous applying anthropog climate regional climate
s of changes in e gases climate enic forcings in rainfall in forcings
Victoria, three and models influences, understan Victoria, affect
Australia distinct natural (CMIP5), played a ding urging regional
sub- variability, and significant regional improved rainfall
regions of significantl assessing role in the rainfall modelling patterns
Victoria, y influence the impact observed changes for and the
Australia. regional of external decline of and effective accuracy
rainfall forcings rainfall improving water of climate
patterns, across the resource models in
and that three sub- accuracy manageme simulating
climate regions of of climate nt amidst these
models Victoria, models for climate effects.
can vary in Australia, better change.
their during the water
ability to period resource
accurately from 1997 manageme
simulate to 2018. nt in
these Victoria,

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effects Australia.
Aainaa Climate Evaluating The General statistical statistical the inadequac
Hatin Change and research Circulation downscalin downscalin importanc y of
Ahmad and Its comparing involved Models g is widely g offers e of General
Tarmizi, Impact on statistical evaluating compleme effective, reliable accurate Circulation
Siti Rainfall and statistical nted by providing climate climate Models for
Nazahiyah dynamical and statistical reliable projections projections local
Rahmat, downscalin dynamical and climate , essential for policy impact
Ahmad g methods downscalin dynamical projections for long- and studies
Tarmizi for g models downscalin , term water planning, due to
Abd Karim, projecting to project g particularl resource highlightin their
and Nurul localized local techniques y for manageme g the need coarse
Nadrah climate climate to simulate Malaysia’s nt and for resolution,
Aqilah impacts of impacts, and rainfall policymaki continuous necessitati
Tukimat global focusing analyze patterns. ng, enhancem ng
climate on rainfall local particularl ent of improved
change, and climate y under downscalin downscalin
particularl extreme responses changing g g methods.
y focusing weather to climate techniques
on rainfall due to increased conditions. to improve
variability global greenhous climate
and climate e gases. impact
extreme changes. assessmen
weather ts and
events. adaptation
strategies.

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Meeting Notes:

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